Fed Stays on Pause, Chips Rally on Export Hopes
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Welcome to the Schwab Market Update podcast, where we prepare you for each trading day with a recap of recent news and a look at what's ahead. I'm Keith Lansford, and here is Schwab's early look at the markets for Thursday, May 8th. After the Federal Reserve left rates unchanged yesterday, Wall Street's busiest season is pretty much over. Investors are left, like the Fed, wondering how talks this weekend might play out between the U.S. and China.

On a related note, chip stocks rebounded late Wednesday on headlines suggesting the Trump administration might end chip export restrictions, though details were initially scarce. There's a smattering of data today, including first quarter productivity, unit labor costs and weekly jobless claims. But Friday's schedule is almost barren.

The Fed, meanwhile, gave the impression that policymakers are as uncertain as everyone else about the possible impact of tariffs and plans to stand aside. For the time being, we're well positioned to wait for greater clarity before making changes to the policy stance, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said at his press conference. Tariff policy poses the risk of both higher unemployment and higher inflation, but we can't say which way this will shake out, Powell added.

He called current policy, with the target rate range between 4.25% and 4.5% since last December, moderately restrictive and said it puts the Fed in good position to respond to either a slowing economy or rising inflation. He also said the economy is in a good place, though inflation remains modestly above the Fed's 2% goal.

Asked how the Fed would respond if both inflation and unemployment rose, Powell said the Fed would first address whichever appears more damaging. My gut tells me that uncertainty about the path of the economy is extremely elevated and downside risks have increased, Powell said. The risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen but haven't materialized yet.

The key risk is that the Fed's two mandates of stable prices and maximum employment could conflict, with higher inflation supporting the case for higher rates, but higher unemployment supporting the case for lower rates. Ultimately, we think the Fed will focus more on its labor market mandate and expect the Fed to cut rates sometime in the second half of the year, said the Schwab Center for Financial Research in a note after the Fed meeting.

The Fed's June meeting, once viewed as a likely spot for the first rate cut since December, now looks more like another pause. Chances of a trim in June fell to just 25 percent late Wednesday after Powell's comments, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Odds of a July cut remain around 70 percent. The futures market builds in relatively strong chances of two to four cuts in total this year.

With the Fed meeting over, focus shifts to talks between China and the U.S. Investors might not want to get hopes up for any quick resolutions.

This echoes 2018 when the U.S. and China had a long series of meetings and negotiations with some sort of deal always seeming to be close but dragged on until ending not with de-escalation and a comprehensive agreement but with locking in most of the existing tariffs at that point with the narrow phase one trade deal, said Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Schwab.

Market optimism could wax and wane over potential trade deals during the coming weeks, he added, with the average trade deal historically taking 18 months to be signed. Some of that wax and wane was evident yesterday as an early rally quickly lost steam.

Technically, the S&P 500 index appears caught in a narrow range between its 50-day moving average below the market near 5,570 and its 200-day moving average above the market near 5,750. Rallies yesterday ran quickly into selling, though major indexes managed to close higher. The S&P 500, however, didn't test last week's highs near 5,700.

The tone isn't exactly warm and fuzzy as trade negotiations approach. China warned the U.S. not to use the talks as a smokescreen to continue coercion and extortion, according to media reports. Another challenge to investor confidence around trade talks is recent contrary signals from different administration officials. At one point this week, Treasury Secretary Scott Besson promised deals. At another, President Trump said no deals are needed.

Turning to data, last week's initial weekly jobless claims number leapt above 240,000 after being near 220,000 for many weeks. The briefing.com consensus for today's report is 238,000. Employment data so far this year doesn't suggest major upheavals, and analysts say firms may be holding onto workers longer, remembering how difficult it was to rehire after the pandemic.

China's April trade numbers are due later today and will be the first to reflect 145% U.S. tariffs. The central bank in China lowered rates and announced other stimulus measures yesterday, a possible sign that its economy is hurting from lagging exports as the trade war blazes.

Separately, answering a question yesterday, President Trump said he sees no reason for the U.S. to back off those high tariffs on Chinese goods. This disappointed investors who sent stocks down to intraday lows on the news. On the corporate front, Disney's earnings improved Wall Street's mood early yesterday, but investors sent Alphabet shares much lower.

Apple is considering reworking the Safari web browser on its devices to focus on AI-powered search engines, Bloomberg reported. Google has long been the default search tool of Apple's browser, but a court case could force the two to unwind the pact. Apple shares are down since its earnings last week, in part because of its inability to forecast the long-term impact of tariffs.

Weakness in the company's services category last quarter, a key profit driver also heightened gloom around the stock. Gloom lifted temporarily from Nvidia shares late Wednesday when Bloomberg reported that Trump is considering lifting export restrictions on chips to certain countries. Nvidia spoke out against this policy earlier in the year. Other big chip stocks also rose. It was unclear late Wednesday if the remark will actually turn into policy.

More broadly, health care, consumer discretionary and financials led gains yesterday, but communication services dove due to Alphabet. Tech also ended red. Over the last month, tech is the leading sector, up 16%. The jump in tech, a sector dominated by mega caps, led to outperformance by the cap-weighted S&P 500 versus the unweighted S&P 500 equal weight index since mid-April.

The closely watched 10-year Treasury yield edged lower to 4.28 percent yesterday, but shorter-term yields more responsive to near-term Fed moves were unchanged. The dollar index gained, perhaps helped by rate cut odds moving further back into 2025.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 284.97 points Wednesday or 0.70% to 41,113.97. The S&P 500 Index climbed to 24.37 points or 0.43% to 5,631.28. And the Nasdaq Composite added 48.50 points or 0.27% to 17,738.16.

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