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Jobs, Manufacturing Data Await After Late Comeback

2025/4/1
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Schwab Market Update Audio

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Keith Lansford
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Keith Lansford: 我分析了即将发布的就业报告,以及市场对关税和经济增长的担忧。本周的就业数据将被密切关注,以寻找就业市场是否出现裂痕的迹象。最近的商业和消费者信心数据引发了企业能否继续招聘的疑问。白宫即将发布的关税公告可能为华尔街带来一些缓解,但投资者近期并没有表现出抄底的迹象,市场持续缓慢下跌。尽管标普500指数昨日出现小幅反弹,但科技股持续对纳斯达克综合指数构成压力。明天总统特朗普的关税计划规模可能会公布,但其曲折变化可能不会就此结束。公告并不一定意味着立即执行,可能因法律程序和世界贸易组织的潜在挑战而推迟。市场通常更青睐确定性,这就是为什么等待消息有时是最难的部分。历史上,贸易战并没有帮助美国经济。大多数分析师仍然预计第一季度GDP为正,但低于去年水平。最近疲软的数据(如信心和情绪)尚未与就业市场出现裂痕的任何迹象相匹配,因为失业救济金申请人数仍处于长期范围内的相对较低水平。如果这种情况发生变化,则可能意味着美国财政部市场将进一步上涨,而股票市场将走弱。分析师预计职位空缺与上月大致相同,仍然是一个健康的数字。职位空缺或离职率的大幅下降,或两者兼而有之,可能表明关税问题开始更深层次地影响就业市场,但请记住,这是2月份的数据,当时的不确定性较小。此外,每周的失业救济金申请数据尚未显示就业市场出现许多裂痕。还需关注JOLTS离职率,这有助于阐明对于那些离开现有职位的人来说,找到新工作是容易还是困难。对于ISM制造业,分析师的平均预期为49.8,低于2月份的50.3。任何低于50的数字都表明经济萎缩。ISM制造业去年经历了数月的萎缩,然后在今年早些时候恢复到正增长区域。ISM服务业数据(包括更广泛的经济部门)将于周四公布。这两份报告都可能强于预期,因为企业提前开展活动以应对4月2日的关税公告。周一,主要指数在尾盘反弹,这似乎反映了季度末交易,一些投资者在市场经历非常艰难的一个月和一个季度后平仓。消息匮乏,这使得难以找到反弹的其他解释。防御性板块继续领涨,尽管波动性和国债价格从反映避险交易的早期水平下降。信息技术行业继续挣扎。周一午后的涨幅紧随早盘暴跌之后,主要指数跌至9月初以来的最低水平。与关税相关的抛售延续了周五的走势。标普500指数当日低点跌破5500点,回到修正区域,较2月19日历史高点下跌超过10%。纳斯达克综合指数在当日开盘前已进入修正区域,交易价格跌至9月初以来的低点。疲软的走势紧随周五2%的跌幅和总统特朗普希望对所有国家的进口商品征收20%普遍关税的新闻报道之后。根据芝商所FedWatch工具,截至周一晚些时候,5月份FOMC会议降息的概率仅为16%,6月份的概率为75%。这两个百分比都低于周一上午的水平。人们担心,如果关税导致通货膨胀,即使经济因同样的关税而放缓,也可能限制美联储的行动。多位美联储理事和副主席将在未来几天发表讲话,最终在周五由美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔发表讲话。标普500指数第一季度下跌5%,纳斯达克综合指数下跌超过10%。这打破了标普500指数连续五个季度上涨的势头。主要指数疲软不仅反映了关税和经济增长方面的担忧。标普500指数2025年的平均预期收益增长率已连续几周下降。标普500指数上涨30.91点,涨幅为0.55%,收于5611.85点。道琼斯工业平均指数上涨417.86点,涨幅为1%,收于42001.76点。纳斯达克综合指数下跌23.70点,跌幅为0.14%,收于17299.29点。

Deep Dive

Chapters
This chapter analyzes the impact of recent economic trends on the job market, focusing on the upcoming JOLTS report and ISM Manufacturing PMI data. It explores the possibility of a weakening job market and its implications for the broader economy.
  • Fresh job openings data will be released.
  • The data will be watched for signs of splintering in the job market.
  • Analysts expect JOLTS of $7.68 million, roughly unchanged from January.
  • A big drop in openings or the quit rate could indicate tariff issues affecting the job market.

Shownotes Transcript

Translations:
中文

Welcome to the Schwab Market Update podcast, where we prepare you for each trading day with a recap of recent news and a look at what's ahead. I'm Keith Lansford, and here is Schwab's early look at the markets for Tuesday, April 1st.

Fresh job openings data later this morning kick off a week packed with reports focused on employment. All this week's data will be closely watched for any signs of splintering in what's been a solid climate for job seekers as recent business and consumer confidence measures raised questions whether companies can continue hiring.

Turning to tariffs, hopes built that tomorrow's Liberation Day tariff announcement by the White House could provide some relief on Wall Street, but there hasn't been much evidence lately of investors stepping in to buy dips. Instead, the market continues to grind slowly lower, with U.S. stocks posting their worst quarter versus the rest of the world's indexes since the 1980s.

The broader market trades just above levels that would signal a formal correction or a 10% drop from recent highs. While yesterday featured a minor rebound for the S&P 500 index, tech stocks kept pressure on the Nasdaq composite most of the session, with Amazon, Nvidia and Tesla all finishing down more than 1%.

Tomorrow is when the scale of President Trump's tariff plans is likely to be unveiled, though the twists and turns aren't likely to end with that. The announcement isn't necessarily the same as implementation, which could be delayed by legal proceedings and possible challenges by the World Trade Organization. Still, tomorrow's Rose Garden event could provide a clearer sense of the tariff picture and a sense of how U.S. trade partners react.

Generally, markets appreciate certainty, which is why waiting for news can sometimes be the toughest part. Historically, trade wars haven't helped the U.S. economy. The latest Atlanta Fed GDP Now model for first quarter gross domestic product, or GDP growth, is negative 2.8 percent. There will still be updates to that, and the first official government estimate is due later this month.

Most analysts still expect positive first quarter GDP, but at lower levels than last year. Growth was 2.3 percent in the fourth quarter. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS, for February is due at 10 a.m. ET, while manufacturing numbers from today's ISM Manufacturing PMI due at the same time will also be closely watched.

Recent soft data like confidence and sentiment hasn't been matched yet by any signs of cracks in the jobs market, as jobless claims have remained in their long-term range at relatively low levels. If that changes, it could mean another leg up for the Treasury market and weakness in equities. Goldman Sachs raised its U.S. recession risk substantially over the weekend.

Analysts expect jolts of $7.68 million, roughly unchanged from $7.74 million in January, and still a healthy figure. A big drop in openings or the quit rate, or both, might indicate tariff issues starting to become more deeply rooted in the jobs market, but remember this is from February when there was less uncertainty. Also, weekly jobless claims data haven't indicated many cracks yet in the jobs market.

Remember to also check the JOLTS quit rate, which can help shed light on how easy or difficult it is to get a new job for those leaving current positions. For ISM manufacturing, the average analyst estimate is 49.8, down from 50.3 in February. Any number below 50 indicates contraction. ISM manufacturing spent many months in contraction last year before clawing back into positive territory earlier this year.

ISM services data, which includes a much broader sector of the economy, is due Thursday. Both these reports could be stronger than expected as businesses front-run their activity to get ahead of the April 2nd tariff announcement. On Monday, major indexes bounced back late in what appeared to reflect end-of-quarter trading, where some investors cashed out of short positions following a very difficult month and quarter for the market.

News was thin, which made other explanations for the rebound difficult to find. Defensive sectors continued to lead, though volatility and treasury prices fell from early levels that reflected risk-off trading. Infotech continued its struggles. The Monday afternoon gains followed a morning plunge to the lowest levels for major indexes since early September. Tariff-related selling spilled over from Friday.

The S&P 500 index, at its low for the day, traded below 5,500, back in correction territory down more than 10% from its February 19 all-time peak.

The Nasdaq composite was in correction territory already heading into the day and trades at lows last seen in early September. The weakness followed Friday's 2% losses and news reports that President Trump wants to impose a 20% universal tariff on imports from all countries.

As of late Monday, there was only a 16% chance of rates being lowered at the May FOMC meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool. That rises to 75% for June. Both of those percentages were down from Monday morning. There's concern that if tariffs cause inflation, it could tie the Fed's hands even as the economy slows due to those same tariffs.

Several Fed governors and vice chairs speak over the next few days, culminating with remarks by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday. The S&P 500 fell 5% in the first quarter, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped more than 10%. That broke a five-quarter winning streak for the S&P 500.

The weakness in major indexes doesn't only reflect tariff and economic growth concerns. Average S&P 500 earnings growth estimates for 2025 have been edging lower for weeks.

The S&P 500 index added 30.91 points or 0.55% to 5,611.85. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 417.86 points or 1% to 42,001.76. And the Nasdaq Composite fell 23.70 points or 0.14% to 17,299.29.

This has been the Schwab Market Update podcast. To stay informed, visit www.schwab.com slash market update or follow us for free in your favorite podcasting app. And if you like what you've heard, please consider leaving us a rating or a review. It really helps new listeners find the show. Join us for another update tomorrow. For important disclosures, see the show notes and schwab.com slash market update podcast.