Tesla Earnings Ahead After Rough Start to Week
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I'm Keith Lansford, and here is Schwab's early look at the markets for Tuesday, April 22nd. Earnings season picks up the pace as investors brace for Tesla this afternoon, following a host of reports this morning. Stocks dove again yesterday on trade concerns and worries over the Federal Reserve's independence. Tesla was one of the worst S&P 500 performers, continuing this year's slide with a nearly 6% drop Monday.

With 12% of S&P 500 companies reporting results, 71% have beaten analysts' earnings per share estimates, and 61% have reported a positive revenue surprise, FACS has said. The blended EPS growth rate, which includes companies reporting and estimates for those that haven't, is 7.2%. The so-called B rates for earnings and revenue are lower than average.

Though Tesla reports today, some of the drama for Tesla investors arrived earlier this month when the EV maker reported a 13% Euro-year drop in first-quarter vehicle deliveries. It cited a changeover in Model Y lines at all four factories that led to the loss in four weeks of production, but said that the Model Y ramp continues to go well.

Earnings from Tesla come after longtime Tesla bull analyst Dave Ives of Wedbush Securities said over the weekend that Tesla CEO Elon Musk should step back from his government work and focus on the company. Other key earnings reports to monitor today include Verizon, Lockheed Martin, 3M, and Northrop Grumman. Defense contractors may have color on how President Trump's trade war is affecting their demand from overseas.

Boeing arrives tomorrow along with tech giants IBM and Texas Instruments. Last week's semiconductor earnings from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing and ASML soothed some worries over the trade war's impact on that industry. First quarter deliveries for Boeing's Defense, Space, and Security Division totaled 26, up from 14 during the same quarter a year earlier.

On a positive note, for all three big defense firms reporting this week, President Trump said last week he wants to see the U.S. defense budget reach $1 trillion this year, but on the negative side, U.S. defense partners in Europe, angered by U.S. tariffs, appear eager to invest in manufacturing their own defense technology to reduce reliance on U.S. parts and supplies for weapons.

Analysts expect 14% first quarter earnings per share growth for the infotech sector, according to FactSet. Investors might very well discount strong first quarter numbers as pull forward demand ahead of expected tariffs. Like with home renovation during the early days of the pandemic, that kind of demand doesn't always last and can act as a vampire on future quarters growth.

However, analysts continue lowering estimates for earnings as recession fears swirl on Wall Street amid trade and Fed uncertainty. Those two headwinds hit stocks and treasuries yesterday. Recession probability is elevated, and it's hard to imagine what could prevent it other than a fuller backpedaling in tariff policy, said Lizanne Saunders, chief investment strategist at Schwab.

Even if a recession can be avoided, Wall Street has grown far more conservative about the earnings outlook, thanks in part to trade confusion. This is the 18th straight week of downward revisions to 2025 S&P 500 earnings estimates to around 9% growth now from 15% shortly after last fall's election. Direction of travel for estimates from here is likely still lower, perhaps significantly alongside recession risks, Saunders added.

Eyes also turned toward Treasury auctions after recent signs of weaker demand for U.S. assets that rattled markets. A two-year Treasury note auction today kicks things off. Lack of demand for U.S. assets, including Treasuries and the dollar, upended markets earlier this month amid fears overseas investors might turn elsewhere for perceived safety. Yesterday saw President Trump again turn up the heat on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, calling him a loser and demanding lower rates.

Powell sounded hawkish on rates last week, saying that tariffs could keep inflation above the central bank's target. Trump's anger with Powell raised broader concerns about the Fed's independence. Though Powell has said he plans to finish his term, Trump aides have said that they're studying ways to fire him.

The irony of the effort to oust Powell is that it would probably send long-term yields higher as foreign investors intensify their exit from U.S. dollar assets, the exact opposite of what the president wants, said Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at Schwab. Jones added that the market turbulence following Trump's comments about Powell is probably less about Powell himself or any replacement and more about preserving some semblance of Fed independence.

Monday was a sparse one for earnings and data, but March leading indicators from the conference board fell 0.7%, compared with a 0.2% decrease the prior month and analysts' expectations for a 0.3% decline.

The report's Expectations Index, which tracks consumers' short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, fell to 65.2, its lowest level in 12 years, and below the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead, the conference board said.

Tomorrow features March new home sales shortly after the open. Last week was a challenging one for the housing market as March housing starts came in well below analysts' expectations, and homebuilder D.R. Horton said spring demand was off to a slow start. The Federal Reserve's Beige Book on economic conditions around the country is also due tomorrow, and final April consumer sentiment is ahead on Friday. But today offers no data of note to investors.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield clawed back above 4.4% yesterday after Trump's comments on Powell. The dollar hit new three-year lows, and gold posted all-time highs. Chances of a May rate cut stood at 13% late Monday, down from 20% a week ago. June rate cut odds are 73%, down from 75% over the last week.

Powell has no public events scheduled this week, but Vice Chair Philip Jefferson speaks today that's expected to touch on the Fed's dual mandate of maximum sustainable employment and price stability.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 971.82 points or 2.48% to 38,170.41. The S&P 500 Index dropped 124.50 points or 2.36% to 5,158.20. And the Nasdaq Composite sank 415.55 points or 2.55% to 15,870.90.