Trade at Center Stage but CPI, Walmart also Loom
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Welcome to the Schwab Market Update podcast, where we prepare you for each trading day with a recap of recent news and a look at what's ahead. I'm Keith Lansford, and here is Schwab's early look at the markets for Monday, May 12th. Trade talks between the U.S. and China dominated the weekend and could play heavily into today's direction.

Coming days likely keep the focus on trade as the White House touts more deals close to fruition, even while April inflation and retail sales data tomorrow and Thursday shed light on possible tariff impacts. Much of the optimism surrounding multiple trade deals in the hopper that prompted a recent nine-day rally has begun to fade, and investors appear to be growing weary.

That said, last week put one trade deal in the books, albeit a minor one between the UK and the US. Traders may want to see bigger deals materialize before adding to recent buys.

We have some important earnings and economic reports on deck, but it seems that the primary market driver continues to be trade, said Nathan Peterson, director of derivatives analysis at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, speaking Friday afternoon before the weekend trade talks. If there is no progress, or worse, a breakdown in talks, it seems likely that stocks are set up for a profit-taking pullback.

Retail earnings gained steam this week as Walmart reports Thursday, followed by more big boxes later this month. These might offer an up-close view of how 145% tariffs on Chinese imports affected both supply and demand in recent weeks. Look for company-specific insight on navigating the uncertainty, said Alex Coffey, senior trading strategist at Schwab, referring to pending retail results.

Will companies pull earnings guidance or announce hiring freezes? They'll announce plans like these if they have them when they announce quarterly earnings. Analysts again lowered their estimates for total 2025 S&P 500 earnings late last week. The average estimate has fallen to $265 from $273 over the last three months.

At Friday's closing levels, that puts the S&P 500 forward price-to-earnings ratio at a heightened 21.35 versus the long-term average near 18.

The closely watched 10-year Treasury note yield eased slightly Friday to around 4.37%, but remains near two-week highs, and a couple of short-term Treasury auctions run today. Yield volatility surfaced last week when strong demand for shorter-term auctions was followed by weak demand for a 30-year auction.

Long-term yields have gained more than short-term ones amid inflation worries and decent U.S. economic data potentially raising the cost of long-term borrowing. Optimism about potential trade deals and a patient Fed were likely the key drivers of higher Treasury yields last week, said Colin Martin, director of fixed income strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research. There's room for yields to move modestly higher if the Fed cuts less than the markets expect.

The futures market is now pricing in less than three cuts by year-end, the fewest since late March. Our outlook calls for just two cuts this year, with the first cut coming in September. This can change, but unless unemployment rises sharply, the Fed won't necessarily be rushing to cut rates. As of late Friday, a June rate cut was just a 17% possibility, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Odds of a July trim were 60%.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell speaks this Thursday. Today is light on data and earnings, but tomorrow brings the April Consumer Price Index with the Producer Price Index and April retail sales Thursday. Inflation remains above the Fed's 2% goal, and recent consumer surveys show high inflation expectations.

Heading into CPI, analysts expect both the headline and core figures to rise 0.3% versus negative 0.1% and a positive 0.1%, respectively, in March, according to Trading Economics. Core CPI removes volatile food and energy prices. The year-over-year headline inflation rate is expected to remain at 2.4%.

Powell said last week that the economy is in a good place, but he and other Fed policymakers also warned that tariffs could raise inflation. The CPI and PPI data are the first since 145% tariffs took effect on Chinese goods and could shed more light. Retail sales are expected to be flat month over month.

A hot CPI report and weak retail sales would make stagflation a popular headline for the week, but that term appears to be exaggerating the actual economic environment, considering that underlying economic growth was still in the 2.5% to 3% area in the first quarter when net exports were excluded, Schwab's Martin said.

In data late last week, Chinese exports to the U.S. fell 21% in April, but overall Chinese exports rose 8.1% year-over-year in April. That was down from 12.4% in March. Besides Walmart, other major firms reporting in coming days include Applied Materials, Deere, and Cisco.

About 90% of S&P 500 companies have reported first quarter results, and 78% beat analysts' earnings expectations, FactSet said. First quarter blended S&P 500 earnings growth of 13.4%, which includes companies reporting and expectations for those yet to report, looks much stronger than the 7.1% analysts had expected going in, but it's unclear how much of that reflects pull-forward demand as tariffs loomed.

Analysts expect a plunge to just 5.2% earnings growth this quarter. In Trading Friday, markets vacillated as traders geared up for weekend trade talks. No one seemed to want to take either side, and volume was below average on the New York Stock Exchange.

The S&P 500 index still trades in a relatively narrow range, not testing either its 50-day moving average near 55.51 that forms a technical support area, or the 200-day moving average of 57.40 that could represent resistance. The index has been in this range since the start of the month. However, the tech-heavy NASDAQ 100 index spent time late last week just below its 200-day moving average of 20,180,

A push above that might force some short covering or technical buying. One stock highlight Friday was a 28% climb in shares of ride-sharing firm Lyft after it reported a 13% rise in quarterly gross bookings and raised its share buyback plan.

The S&P 500 is up 17% from its April lows, but remains well below its February highs, perhaps not surprising considering declining earnings expectations and the trade war. Most sectors traded in a narrow range Friday between negative 1% and positive 1%. Energy led once again as crude oil continued to climb from recent four-year lows amid hopes for trade deals.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 119.07 points Friday, or 0.29%, to 41,249.38. The S&P 500 Index edged down 4.03 points, or 0.07%, to 5,659.91. And the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.78 points, or 0%, to 17,928.92.

For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.16%, the S&P 500 fell 0.47%, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.27%. Two-week win streaks ended for all three indexes. This has been the Schwab Market Update Podcast.

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