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cover of episode 飯田浩司のLeader's Vision #03 「2025年の経済展望」その2

飯田浩司のLeader's Vision #03 「2025年の経済展望」その2

2025/1/9
logo of podcast 飯田浩司のOK! Cozy up! Podcast

飯田浩司のOK! Cozy up! Podcast

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新浪剛史
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新浪剛史:我认为2025年日本经济整体向好,但会面临一些来自国际局势的冲击,特别是来自美国方面的政策不确定性。 面对特朗普政府的政策,企业需要具备灵活的经营模式,能够快速适应变化的环境。同时,我们也需要积极与美国政府沟通,用事实证明企业的贡献,例如在美投资和创造就业岗位,以避免不必要的误解和贸易摩擦。 关于日美贸易关系,我认为日本制铁的S系列产品被美国拒绝,是极其不公平的决定。尽管如此,我们仍需继续努力争取,因为这不仅关乎日美关系,也关乎美国自身的经济利益。 至于汇率问题,特朗普政府希望美元贬值以促进出口,但这并非易事。日本也需要谨慎应对可能出现的日元贬值风险。日本央行的利率政策需要避免滞后,并应关注日元汇率的稳定,避免日元过度贬值。 总而言之,2025年的日本经济将充满挑战与机遇。企业需要保持灵活性和适应性,积极应对各种不确定因素,才能在充满变数的国际环境中获得成功。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

What is the economic outlook for Japan in 2025 according to Shin Niwa, CEO of Suntory Holdings?

Shin Niwa describes the economic outlook for Japan in 2025 as 'sunny with occasional rain.' He believes that while unexpected events, such as external influences from the U.S., may cause temporary disruptions, the overall economy will trend positively. He also notes that wages have been rising for three consecutive years, which he sees as a positive indicator for continued growth.

How does Shin Niwa view the potential impact of the Trump administration on Japan's economy and Suntory Holdings?

Shin Niwa acknowledges the unpredictability of the Trump administration's policies. He sees potential benefits, such as the possibility of reduced supply chain costs if global tensions ease. However, he also warns of risks, such as increased tariffs, which could raise supply chain costs. Niwa emphasizes the need for flexible management to quickly adapt to any changes.

What strategy does Suntory Holdings employ to navigate the uncertainties of U.S. trade policies under Trump?

Suntory Holdings focuses on being 'pro-America' by highlighting its significant investments and job creation in the U.S. Niwa stresses the importance of presenting factual evidence of their contributions to the U.S. economy, such as investments and employment, to counter any potential criticism or tariffs. This approach aims to demonstrate their alignment with U.S. interests.

How does Shin Niwa perceive the recent trade decisions affecting Japanese companies like Nippon Steel?

Shin Niwa expresses disappointment and frustration over what he considers 'unreasonable' trade decisions, such as those affecting Nippon Steel. He believes these decisions are unjustified, especially given the significant investments and job creation by Japanese companies in the U.S. Niwa suggests that such decisions could be detrimental to the U.S. economy in the long run.

What is Shin Niwa's perspective on the U.S. dollar's exchange rate and its impact on Japan?

Shin Niwa believes that the U.S. dollar's exchange rate is influenced by broader economic factors rather than the decisions of a single president. He warns that Japan must be cautious, as the yen could weaken further, which would negatively impact the country. Niwa advocates for a stronger yen and suggests that the Bank of Japan should avoid delaying interest rate hikes to support this goal.

What is the ideal exchange rate range for the yen according to Shin Niwa?

Shin Niwa suggests that the yen should strengthen to a range of 135 to 145 against the U.S. dollar. He believes that a stronger yen is beneficial for Japan, as it prevents Japanese goods from becoming too cheap and supports the overall economy.

Chapters
2025年の日本経済を天気予報に例え、晴れ時々雨の状況を説明。海外の不確定要素を「雨」に例え、全体的には良い方向に向かうものの、アメリカからの影響なども懸念材料として挙げている。サントリーの対応として、柔軟な経営体制の必要性を強調。
  • 2025年の日本経済は、全体的には良い方向に向かうものの、海外からの不確定要素の影響を受ける可能性がある。
  • サントリーは、不確定要素に対応できる柔軟な経営体制を目指している。

Shownotes Transcript

「飯田浩司のLeader's Vision」

 

様々な業界の企業・団体のリーダーから

これからの時代、ビジネスパーソンに求められる知恵と知識を学ぶ、

「飯田浩司のOK!Cozy up!」ポッドキャスト限定コンテンツ。

 

今回は、1月7日(火)に東京都内で行われた

経済三団体の新年祝賀パーティに参加した企業のトップへのインタビューを

『OK! Cozy up!』で紹介できなかったパート含めフルサイズで

配信しています。

 

テーマは、「2025年の経済展望」

 

第2回目は

サントリーホールディングスの新浪剛史社長。

新浪社長は経済同友会代表幹事でもあります。

 

See omnystudio.com/listener) for privacy information.