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cover of episode 和超哥聊 AI Agent :这次不一样 E30

和超哥聊 AI Agent :这次不一样 E30

2025/1/3
logo of podcast 橙皮书

橙皮书

AI Deep Dive AI Insights AI Chapters Transcript
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超哥
作为主播,积极参与多个媒体项目和文化讨论。
Topics
超哥:AI Agent 市场潜力巨大,已有很多 Agent 能够胜任许多工作,尽管目前还不够成熟,但在特定场景下表现良好,例如帮助出海商家自动回复信用卡公司邮件的 Agent。垂直领域的 Agent 已经广泛应用,有些相对成熟,有些还不成熟。 超哥:虽然目前 AI Agent 在复杂任务上的成功率不高,但随着模型能力的提升,未来其成功率会大幅提高,应用范围也会扩大。未来 AI Agent 将会广泛应用于商业和通用场景,渗透到生活的方方面面。 超哥:Crypto Agent 早期火爆是因为 meme,很多 Crypto Agent 本质上是 meme,缺乏实用性。但未来真正有实用性的 Agent 会越来越重要。Meme 虽然会一直存在,但未来可能不会是 Crypto Agent 的主流。 超哥:看好 AI Agent 在加密网络上的应用,包括货币化、链上应用和利用加密网络弥补现有体制下行为能力不足等方向。链上世界的特质特别适合 Agent 发挥,弥补了它在现有体制下行为能力不足的问题。 超哥:Agent 的工程框架在快速进化,大模型能力也在快速提升,未来会有更多场景变得可行。做 Agent 的人应该专注于工程和产品,不必担心模型能力不够,因为模型能力会快速发展。 超哥:一年内会有更多智能的 Crypto Agent 出现,但可能达不到人们的期望效果,其成熟度可能还比较低。 超哥:Agent 的发展模式与之前的 Crypto 不同,是应用先行,而不是基础设施先行。Agent 的发展模式是应用先行,然后反推技术设施快速发展。 超哥:目前的 Agent 多数是战术级的,缺乏战略层面的规划和冲击力。战术层 Agent 和战略层 Agent 的区别在于其设计和目标,战略层 Agent 能够影响甚至改变整个系统。战略层 Agent 能够通过收集信息、分析判断、影响投票等方式,最终影响甚至改变整个系统的运行。战术层 Agent 的发展是战略层 Agent 的基础。多个战术层 Agent 之间的协作能够实现更复杂的任务,形成质变。Agent 之间的协作能够提高效率和成功率。 超哥:AI Agent 可以作为智囊团,提供靠谱的判断和参考,拓宽思路。未来使用 AI 辅助的政府和不使用 AI 辅助的政府之间的差距会越来越大。 超哥:AI Agent 的应用方向包括模拟,例如模拟 AI 文明。AI 文明可能会创造自己的货币系统,通信协议和语言,并可能使用算力作为货币。 超哥:Crypto 加 AI 是一个长期赛道,会有周期性波动,但总会有新的东西出现。Crypto AI 领域的朋友们可以关注 Web2 中场景收敛、有价值且可实现的 Agent。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

What is the current state of AI Agents in the market, and how are they being utilized?

AI Agents are rapidly emerging and are being used in various fields, though they are not yet fully mature. In B2B scenarios, they are already effective, such as helping overseas merchants automatically respond to credit card dispute emails. These agents can detect emails, identify transactions, and generate professional responses, significantly reducing losses for merchants. For example, Alibaba International reported a success rate of 50-60% in resolving disputes using such agents.

Why is the crypto space particularly suitable for AI Agents?

The crypto space is well-suited for AI Agents because it compensates for their lack of behavioral capabilities in traditional systems. The decentralized nature of blockchain allows agents to interact with protocols without needing traditional legal or financial structures. For instance, an agent can control an Ethereum wallet and interact with decentralized applications, bypassing the need for traditional banking systems. This makes crypto networks a more flexible and friendly environment for AI Agents to operate.

What are some examples of AI Agents in the crypto space, and what challenges do they face?

In the crypto space, AI Agents are often used for tasks like market analysis and trading. However, they are still in their early stages and face challenges such as high failure rates in complex tasks. For example, some agents have made incorrect predictions, like forecasting USDC to rise to $5. Despite these challenges, the potential for growth is significant, especially as models like GPT-5 and O3 improve, which could enhance the agents' capabilities and reduce failure rates.

How do AI Agents differ in their development compared to traditional crypto projects?

AI Agents are developing in a bottom-up manner, with applications leading the way rather than infrastructure. This is different from traditional crypto projects, which often start with infrastructure development. For example, many AI-related startups focus on specific, narrow use cases, creating tools or SaaS solutions that address particular needs. This approach allows for rapid iteration and adaptation as the technology evolves.

What is the potential for AI Agents in governance and decision-making?

AI Agents have significant potential in governance and decision-making, particularly in decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs). They can analyze proposals, gather information from various sources, and make informed decisions. Over time, these agents could accumulate voting power and influence the direction of protocols or even larger organizations. This could lead to AI-driven governance models that are more efficient and less prone to human biases.

How might AI Agents evolve in the future, and what impact could they have on society?

AI Agents are expected to evolve rapidly, with improvements in model capabilities and engineering frameworks. They could become integral to various aspects of life, from personal assistants to complex decision-making systems. As they become more capable, they may even take on roles traditionally held by humans, such as managing companies or participating in governance. This evolution could lead to significant societal changes, with AI playing a central role in many areas of life.

What are the ethical and security concerns surrounding AI Agents, especially in sensitive areas like military applications?

AI Agents raise significant ethical and security concerns, particularly in military applications. There are fears about the potential for AI to make autonomous decisions in warfare, such as controlling drones or other weapon systems. Both the U.S. and China are actively discussing AI safety and coordination to prevent misuse. The challenge is to ensure that AI systems remain under human control, especially in critical areas like nuclear weapons.

How do AI Agents interact with each other, and what are the implications of their collaboration?

AI Agents can collaborate with each other, each specializing in different tasks. For example, one agent might handle coding, while another tests the code for errors. This collaboration can lead to more efficient problem-solving and task completion. As these agents become more sophisticated, their ability to work together could lead to significant advancements in various fields, from software development to complex decision-making processes.

What role could AI Agents play in the future of work and employment?

AI Agents could transform the future of work by taking over routine tasks and assisting in complex decision-making. They could act as personal assistants, manage schedules, or even handle specialized tasks like market analysis or legal research. Over time, as their capabilities improve, they could take on more significant roles, potentially displacing some human jobs but also creating new opportunities in AI development and management.

How might AI Agents influence the development of new technologies and industries?

AI Agents could drive the development of new technologies and industries by enabling more efficient and innovative solutions. For example, they could accelerate research and development in fields like healthcare, finance, and logistics by automating data analysis and decision-making processes. As AI Agents become more integrated into various industries, they could lead to the creation of entirely new business models and services, transforming the way we live and work.

Chapters
本期节目探讨了 AI Agent 的市场潜力,虽然目前应用还处于早期阶段,但在垂直领域已经展现出巨大的应用价值,例如帮助出海商家自动回复信用卡公司邮件。嘉宾对未来 AI Agent 的发展持乐观态度,认为其在未来会广泛应用于各个领域,并最终会深入到我们生活的方方面面。
  • AI Agent 发展加速,在 B 端收敛场景表现良好
  • 阿里国际的 AI Agent 成功率达 50%-60%
  • 垂直领域 AI Agent 应用广泛
  • 未来 AI Agent 将在商用和通用场景中广泛应用

Shownotes Transcript

上一次我感受到市场如此强烈的推背感,必须赶紧把播客剪出来,是比特币铭文大火的23年12月8日。 和上次一样,我不明白发生了什么,Agent 现在能用来做什么呢?它和 Crypto 有什么关系?大家一致看好的又是什么?这是不是又一场包装精美的骗局? 这期我请到了老朋友超哥(https://x.com/cwweb3),他是真懂 AI 的 Crypto 人,两年前就开始投资 Crypto AI,自己在本地部署 AI Agent 做实验,还做了一个评估 LLM 在 Crypto 方向的能力的 CryptoBench 。 Highlight: Agent 已经在加速出现,可以做各类事情,虽然还不够成熟,但是在 B 端足够收敛的场景里表现已经足够好了,比如帮助出海商家自动回复信用卡公司邮件的 Agent 。 链上世界的特质,特别适合 Agent 发挥,弥补了它在现有体制下行为能力不足的问题。 做 Agent 的人尽管把注意力放在工程和产品上,不用担心模型能力不够,要相信模型能力会快速发展。 Agent 是自下而上发展的,应用先行,而不是 infra 先行,和之前的 crypto 很不同。