cover of episode 288 · Steve B - When Confluences Align, Confidence Follows

288 · Steve B - When Confluences Align, Confidence Follows

2024/9/26
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Steve B: 我采用的是汇合交易策略,主要交易标的是标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克指数期货。我的策略并非试图预测市场走势,而是识别并抓住每日一次的趋势性波动即可,无需追求所有波动,关键是资本保全。我利用期权数据来识别关键价位,并结合实时成交量来判断价格走势。我的交易检查清单包括:识别市场供需区域、评估风险回报比、以及分析市场汇合点(例如VIX、美元指数、七大科技股等)。风险管理的关键是根据每日波动性调整仓位规模,而非固定仓位大小。我避免使用技术指标,因为它们基于过去数据,无法预测未来走势。交易心理的关键是接受亏损,并将其视为学习机会,而非个人失败。我始终设置止损单,并保持仓位规模一致性,避免因过度交易而导致风险增加。我将一部分交易利润再投资于房地产和高分红股票,以构建多元化的被动收入来源。 Ian: 与Steve B的访谈中,我们深入探讨了他的汇合交易策略,以及在交易中如何运用期权数据、风险管理和交易心理学。 Tessa: 本期节目重点介绍了Steve B的交易经验,以及他如何通过结合多种数据来源和风险管理策略来取得成功。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why did Steve B. start using options data for his futures trading?

Options data provides exposure levels that align with supply and demand zones, offering an extra confluence to support trading decisions. This data gives retail traders more relevant information compared to other markets, helping to identify high-probability setups.

What was Steve B.'s biggest mistake early in his trading career?

His biggest mistake was trading penny stocks and OTC markets, chasing high-risk, low-reward opportunities based on YouTube influencers' exaggerated returns. This taught him the importance of risk management and avoiding quick-fix solutions.

How does Steve B. manage risk in his trading?

He uses a position size calculator to ensure consistent risk management, always measuring risk based on volatility and converting it into a fixed dollar amount or percentage (1% per day). He avoids overtrading and focuses on capital preservation.

What is Steve B.'s 'Confluence Trading' approach?

Confluence Trading involves using multiple data points, including options market exposure, volume, and key levels, to identify high-probability setups. He combines this with a checklist that includes time, volatility, and data confluences to make trading decisions.

Why does Steve B. avoid using indicators in his trading?

He avoids indicators because they are based on past price action and can create an illusion of past performance. Instead, he focuses on live volume, options exposure, and institutional levels to make more precise, forward-looking decisions.

What role does psychology play in Steve B.'s trading?

Psychology is crucial for Steve, as he believes in accepting losses as learning opportunities rather than failures. This mindset helps reduce emotional spikes, FOMO, and overtrading, allowing him to stay disciplined and focused on capital preservation.

How does Steve B. handle position sizing in volatile markets?

He adjusts position sizing based on volatility, ensuring he risks the same dollar amount daily. This approach prevents him from taking excessive risk on high-volatility days, protecting his capital from large drawdowns.

What other asset classes does Steve B. invest in besides trading?

He invests in real estate, land, and high-yielding dividend stocks or funds, aiming for steady, low-stress income streams. He redeploys profits from trading into these assets to build long-term wealth.

What was Steve B.'s biggest struggle as a trader?

His biggest struggle was unplugging from the markets, as he found it difficult to disconnect due to the constant availability of news and charts on his mobile phone. He has since worked on setting strict boundaries to maintain a healthy work-life balance.

How did Steve B. leverage funded accounts in his trading?

He used funded accounts as an investment, paying challenge fees and aiming to multiply the capital within a short period. Once funded, he traded more conservatively, focusing on consistent returns rather than aggressive strategies.

Chapters
This chapter explores Steve B.'s background, his transition from a corporate accounting career to full-time trading, and his evolution as a trader. It highlights his shift from value investing in stocks to his current focus on confluence intraday trading in futures.
  • Steve B.'s background in accounting and finance provided a solid foundation for his trading career.
  • His transition to full-time trading was driven by a desire for more freedom and time.
  • He developed a confluence trading approach, incorporating options market data into his futures trading strategy.

Shownotes Transcript

We caught up with Steve B, a seasoned professional independent trader with 10+ years of experience in the financial markets we got to know closely through the Chat With Traders Community. Steve teamed up with our community cohost and mentor at the time, Patrick Petersson (featured on episode 260) to run the CWT Community Live Trading Room. They mainly traded futures on major indexes. Many community members were interested in their futures trading approach and streamlined looking charts with key levels derived from options market data, which helped build their trading roadmap. Alongside Patrick, Steve has been an influential mentor inside our community. He is known specifically for his "Confluence Trading" approach, which you'll learn about soon. 

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