Hamas’ grip on Gaza
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After 15 months of war, a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza. Hours after the truce was declared, Hamas was back on the streets of Gaza, compromised, weakened, but back. The images beamed around the world on TVs and social media show that Hamas has survived its 15-month war with Israel since the attacks of October 7th, 2023.

On this weekend episode of Reuters World News, we'll talk to our team in the Middle East to find out just how tight Hamas's grip on Gaza is and what its survival signals about the next phases of a fragile ceasefire. I'm your host, Gayle Issa. When you hear Elsec Data & Analytics, what do you think of? Comprehensive data you can trust. Exclusive access to Reuters news. Industry-leading analytics and unique insights. Discover new possibilities with Elsec Data & Analytics.

Nidal Al-Mughrabi is our Senior Palestinian Territories Correspondent based in Cairo, and Mayan Lubel is our Senior Correspondent based in Jerusalem. Mayan, Nidal, thank you both for joining us. Thank you. Hi, thanks for having us. I'd like to start with those incredible images that we all saw last weekend as members of Hamas, their faces covered in balaclavas, their green Hamas bands tied around their heads, oversaw the release of those 1st October 7th hostages since the ceasefire deal landed.

What was Hamas' message? What were they trying to communicate to Israel and to the world? According to people we spoke to on the ground, and Hamas has sought to send messages to the outside world, to the mediators and to the United States and America that Hamas

Like they should have a role in the day, you know, like two in Gaza when the war stops. And also it's a message to the Palestinians that, you know, Hamas is still strong. It has weapons. It has a powerful armed wing. And in a way to deter any opponents who might try to hold protests or

or take advantage of the fact that the Israeli aerial and ground offensive has weakened the group's military capabilities. And Mayan, it's a scene that I'm sure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu might have wanted to avoid having beamed all over the world.

How were those scenes of that hostage release received in Israel? Israel was very much focused on the hostages themselves. They've been waiting to see these images of hostages return safely back to Israel. But of course, the presence of Hamas was noted in Israel. That didn't escape anyone's attention. No one is happy to see Hamas back on the streets. And indeed, one of Israel's goals of war was to end Hamas's rule of Gaza.

Not only that, Israel says it retains its right to go back to war in Gaza in order to make sure that this doesn't happen.

So I think that these images highlighted one of the biggest obstacles or biggest weaknesses of the ceasefire deal that was struck because they've left this question of post-war Gaza, the administration of Gaza, they left it to later stages, putting off one of the trickiest issues that the sides are going to have to sort out one way or the other.

What is the current status of Hamas? What can they still do militarily? And how do they stand politically in terms of their involvement with civilian life? Hamas has spread and deployed the police forces all across Gaza Strip in a show of force.

They held like a military parade of their police and interior ministry security services in the heart of Gaza City and returned to the main roads, like near the crossings, to oversee and secure the routes for hundreds of A-trucks coming into Gaza.

We have information both from Hamas and from the United Nations that since the ceasefire, there has been no reports of lootings. During the war, half of the trucks coming into Gaza and meant to be distributed to the needy families

had been hijacked, but never since the ceasefire and the Hamas deployment in the streets. So in one way or another, Hamas is back in the streets trying to say that they are still standing and that they cannot be bypassed or overruled. But at the same time, as Mayan said, this poses a threat and a challenge to the further negotiations because we know that this agreement is a phased agreement.

At the time of recording this podcast, there had been some reports of lootings in an area outside of Hamas's control. Beyond those reports, Mayan, given that this war happened for the purpose of rooting out Hamas, and they're still there, where can we go next in this ceasefire? Phase one is in train, but what's phase two going to look like?

If you read the Israeli document that was published that sort of sums up the ceasefire deal that was green-lighted by the Israeli government, there's a lot of pages about phase one and about one sentence about phase two. So Israel hasn't really come out and said who it envisions running Gaza, not saying it publicly. Israel has only said what it won't accept. It won't accept Hamas running Gaza.

And it won't accept the Western-backed Palestinian Authority running Gaza as long as it encourages violence against Israelis. Israel said more about what it rejects and less about how it sees Gaza being run. I mean, there's ideas, right, of Nidal of the Emirates taking part, of Egyptians, you know, all these kind of ideas of some kind of...

Pan-Arab force. But don't forget, Mayan, that during the war, Israel has tried some, you know, like some options, like the clans. Yeah. To have some sort of local leaders. Yeah. Receiving the aid and managing the population. Yeah.

But Hamas has made it clear to those, you know, like heads of clans that anyone who would cooperate with the Israeli army would be seen as a collaborator, which means that they can face death. And that pilot project, let's say, failed. And actually some Israeli leaders admitted that they have failed.

to create an alternative to Hamas inside Gaza, which is not a surprise because Hamas would not tolerate any kind of like an alternative entity that is not coming through its own decision. I think that the question, correct me if I'm wrong, Nadal, but the question is also whether Hamas would be willing to have some kind of,

representatives that aren't Hamas by name but are Hamas by nature in Gaza because that could be maybe one of the like you know like a cosmetic solution yeah that might allow the sides proceed

So Mayan, I think you're talking about the two main factions, Hamas and President Mahmoud Abbas's Fatah-dominated Palestinian Authority, possibly coming together after 20 years of infighting to form some kind of power-sharing committee to run the Gaza Strip, right? That's actually the Egyptian proposal. The two sides, you know, like Hamas and Fatah, have failed for years to agree on a unified government.

So the Egyptians proposed a committee that will be made of 15 non-partisan officials to run the tasks in the Gaza Strip, including running the crossings with Israel. Hamas and Fatah both welcomed the idea. But while Hamas has said publicly it has approved the idea and the proposal and is willing to

implement. Fatah has not yet endorsed the committee. In some part, Fatah believes that Hamas has to hand over all the responsibilities in Gaza without any condition. Some Fatah leaders said that they will not serve as a shield for Hamas. If they are honest about

leaving power, they should hand over the powers to the Palestinian Authority. But it is not, you know, like winning the liking of Hamas so far, which so far is determined to have a role NSA in the day two in Gaza. Israel has categorically ruled out working with Hamas. They say it's not an option and that they don't trust the Palestinian Authority either. So therefore, who would

would Israel work with? Well, that's exactly the problem Israel won't really say. I mean, I think they're hoping for some kind of regional force in place during some kind of transition period, basically, working with the UN, working with any, what Israel terms, moderate Arab states who are willing to pitch in and help. Those will be accepted by Israel.

So let's have a look at those options. There is a plan floated by the United Arab Emirates discussed with Israel in the U.S. that the UAE participate in a sort of provisional administration of post-war Gaza until the reformed Palestinian Authority can take over. And of course, there's the Egyptian proposal, the power-sharing committee that we've already touched on.

Mayan, do you think there's any chance that Israel could get on board with a Hamas-Fata coalition? No, not if Hamas is named, not if Hamas is named as Hamas. I think a lot, a lot also depends on what Donald Trump wants. And I

I think that they will have to find ways to square a circle and to live with things that they're unwilling to accept. And they might use a lot of semantics and a lot of cosmetics in order to get through a transitional phase. I don't think it's clear what Trump wants. It's clear Trump wanted the first phase of the deal, which is six weeks, and in which Israel is supposed to get 33 hostages back and aid flows into Gaza.

and Israeli forces partially withdraw. But beyond that, whether we will see a transitional phase and the complete end to the war and Gaza being rebuilt, that's a question that remains to be seen. Well, let's talk about the new U.S. president for a minute. We know that his national security advisor, Mike Waltz, has also said that Hamas is not an option. And we know that this new administration is focused on getting a deal signed between Israel and Saudi Arabia to normalize relations between those two countries.

So if that does happen, where would that leave Hamas, Nidal? That's actually a tricky question. Yes, we know that Trump wants a deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia, but we know also that Saudi Arabia is calling for a two-state solution and for a Palestinian state. So Saudi Arabia will not make a move forward with the normalization of Israel as long as there is a war in Gaza.

So, for the normalization in the deal with Saudi Arabia, Trump wants calm, at least in Gaza and the West Bank, which means that he might think about the Egyptian proposal of a non-partisan committee to run the enclave, but he might propose some other factors to cement this committee with probably international presence or international troops.

That is, you know, because also Hamas is more likely to accept, you know, like the Egyptian proposal and not the UAE proposal. Hamas has said clearly that they will deal with any force, whether Arab or not Arab, who enter Gaza without its consent as a force of occupation. So they haven't given a nod to the UAE proposal.

A spokesperson for the Trump camp did not respond to a request for comment. Nidal, it sounds like you're saying that Hamas would possibly be willing to relinquish some control in order to secure a more lasting peace. Is that fair to say? That's correct. Yes. Mayan, any sense in Israel that there's any room for maneuver in terms of negotiating with Hamas, whether that's a compromised version of Hamas or a cosmetic front? I think

I think not unless something else happens that draws attention or becomes more important, for instance, some kind of move on Iran or some kind of move in the direction of a deal with Saudi Arabia. If attention remains focused on Gaza, then it's a resounding no as far as Israel is concerned. Having said that, this is the Middle East and, you know, there are twists and turns everywhere and surprises all the time.

But no one has actually proposed any kind of election, right? To let the Palestinian people decide? Given the situation at the moment, the priority by all the sides is for the rebuilding, reconstructing people's lives and reconstructing the homes, which will take years.

There are no schools where you can put even the ballot. People have rushed to the areas where they were forced to leave, hoping that they can find their houses still standing. And they were forced to go back to the tents where they have been sheltering for over a year because there was no place for them to live. There was no house.

The people of Gaza have far more urgent matters, immediate matters to contend with rather than all these questions of post-war Gaza and who will run Gaza. Exactly. The Israeli government, the Palestinian Authority and the office of the president, Mahmoud Abbas, did not respond to Reuters' requests for comment. But Mayan, to your point, we don't have any robust polling data on how Gazans feel after these 15 months of war. But what we do know is that the enclave has been raised to the ground and

And according to the Palestinian Health Authority, there are almost 50,000 dead.

Nidal, how are Gazans feeling about Hamas? Do they want them to have a role in their future? Of course. Many Palestinians are now calling for a unified body to rule them and for election. As Mayan said, they've been calling for election since 2007. The last election the Palestinians in Gaza had is 2005 for the president and 2006 for the parliament and never since.

So, yes, this is like a genuine demand by the Palestinians in Gaza is to hold election, but there is no public protest. We know that Hamas does not tolerate public protests, but there is no

with this on the ground that are calling on Hamas to leave. We've seen some mixture of feelings by people in some areas, but some of the people in Gaza have taken to the social media to voice their demands for Hamas to join the government with some others, that Hamas should not rule the Gaza Strip alone.

Israel in the two, three months that were in the run-up to the ceasefire deal from October had launched a particularly heavy offensive in the northern part of Gaza. And

And it faced there classic guerrilla warfare by the Hamas fighters who managed to inflict on Israel some of the highest casualties it had had throughout the war. So inside Gaza, since it launched a ground offensive, Israel lost a little over 400 soldiers, 50 of them alone in the campaign in northern Gaza. Basically, Israel was at risk of being drawn into a long war

A war of attrition where the gains, the military gains, were becoming increasingly questionable. And I think that's also on Israel's minds about who it will accept in Gaza and whether it continues in the second and third phase of the ceasefire. They'll be remembering that too.

Nidal, last week when we spoke, you mentioned the 600 trucks of daily aid that are needed in Gaza. We've already seen some evidence now in phase one that NGOs and UN agencies that are delivering the aid are working with Hamas officials that they used to work with prior to October 7th to get that aid in. Can Gaza be built without Hamas? Unless there is an alternative, you can't rebuild Gaza without Hamas. And according to our sources,

The UN says that they are working with local authorities without naming them, but Hamas officials have confirmed to me that they are in contact with UN bodies and other donor parties to secure the routes of the aid trucks and the warehouses.

But when it comes to the delivery of aid, Hamas says that they do not intervene and that each of those relief agencies

have their own programs. So without an agreeable or an agreed upon entity to run Gaza, anyone will have no choice but to work with the existing Hamas government. Like they have worked with before the war, they have worked with during the war, and they have been working with the same people since the truce began.

When Reuters reached out to the UN, a spokesperson from the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs told us that they engage with local authorities and all groups to ensure that aid can reach those who need it. So we have been seeing some evidence that Hamas is regrouping. We've heard the previous Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, say that the new recruits have been steadily replacing the people Hamas has lost. Are there any good, realistic prospects here for moving this situation forward? And also, just what about the two-state solution? Is...

Is that alive still or not? We're just seeing a ceasefire now between two sides, which have sworn each to the destruction of the other. So, I mean, forget the two-state solution. You've got people in power in Gaza still who reject it and people in power in Israel who reject it. So it kind of seems pretty far off. But again, I think much hinges on Trump and on the Saudis.

The Saudis want, if not a Palestinian state, a pathway towards a Palestinian state. So I think before October 7th attack in 2023, the talks about the Israel-Saudi normalization were heating up. And there are some interpretations or analyses of October 7th attack as also an attempt to stop that from happening, i.e.,

to keep the Palestinian statehood on the agenda, on the world's agenda. So I think a lot will depend on the incoming US president, basically. If it's up to the sides, I would say that don't expect any progress anytime soon towards that. Nadal? Yeah, I agree with Maya. Much depends on what Trump does.

next move is, especially with Saudi Arabia, because if Saudi Arabia agrees to normalization with Israel, Trump and Israel will have to give Saudi Arabia something in return. And we know that Saudi Arabia is lobbying for the Palestinian state. To what extent Israel is willing to cooperate with this demand, that's as yet to be seen.

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Thanks again to Mayan and Nidal for their time and their expertise. Reuters World News is produced by Sharon Reich-Garson, Jonah Green, David Spencer, Christopher Waljasper, and me, Gail Issa. Our senior producers are Tara Oakes and Carmel Crimmins. Our executive producer is Lila de Kretzer. Musical composition and sound design are by Josh Sommer. We'll be back on Monday with our daily headline show. To make sure you never miss an episode, follow along on your preferred podcast platform or download the Reuters app.