Could this be the moment for a Gaza ceasefire?
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Welcome to The World in 10. In an increasingly uncertain world, this is The Times' daily podcast dedicated to global security. Today with me, Stuart Willey and Alex Dibble. Donald Trump has announced that Israel has agreed to the conditions for a 60-day ceasefire in Gaza. The US president seems optimistic, saying he's hopeful a deal could be reached as soon as next week.

However, throughout this 21-month war, moments of hope have often been followed by disappointment. Might this time be different? Could Trump follow up his Iran ceasefire with one to stop the fighting in Gaza? Our guest today is a distinguished international lawyer with extensive experience in peace negotiations. Namibar Yaakov is also a Middle East specialist.

Nomi, it feels like the drumbeat for a Gaza deal has been mounting in recent days. And now this seemingly positive message from Donald Trump on social media. Where do things stand for now? So, yes, it's after the ceasefire in Iran. It seems only logical that there will be a ceasefire in Gaza. Israel has achieved its aims already.

more than a year ago. You know, Israel dismantled more than a year ago, 23 out of 24 Hamas battalions, and Hamas no longer controls the majority of the Gaza Strip, and they're ready to hand over. But they're ready to hand over only under certain terms, because of course, they want to protect themselves. And there is the big question of an end of conflict, whether Israel would like to reserve the right to come

back in if and when, and of course Hamas will not accept that.

So we are getting closer, that's for sure. Tomorrow, there are going to be talks in Cairo between Hamas leaders and the Egyptian mediators and the Qatari mediators, and that's a positive sign. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is going to Washington Sunday night for a meeting with US President Donald Trump Monday morning. So certainly we are seeing a shift in

of gears. I mean, US President Donald Trump would like to see an end to all wars. He had promised that to happen within 24 hours from taking office on the 20th of January this year. And six months on, I think he's just getting really fed up with certain leaders that are more warmongering than peace-seeking.

Nomi, past American proposals have involved a 60-day ceasefire and the release of half the hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners. Do you think that is a realistic goal now? Is that something mediators could persuade Hamas to agree to? No, I think the problem isn't so much Hamas. I think the problem is that it would be...

much more logical. It would make a lot more sense to have them all released, to agree on everything promptly. The question really is why drag it over 60 days? Why drag it for two months when so many things can go wrong? There is severe hunger in Gaza.

Ceasefires are so complicated, it's not really necessary to drag it over such a long period. It would be far wiser for the mediators to try to agree tomorrow in Cairo and to persuade the Israeli prime minister to end the war.

the war in Gaza promptly. Certainly the IDF, the Israeli Defence Forces, the Israeli army and the Israeli people would like, and of course the US, both Trump and I think the American citizens would like to see an end of war. They don't want to pour money into IDF and Israeli arms and they don't want to see any more American bombs falling on civilians in Gaza. And as I said at the outset,

The military leadership was taken out a very, very, very long time ago. So there isn't any reason to continue the war in Gaza. The only reason is that the Israeli prime minister would like to stay in office and an end of war would

mean an end to his government. And then he's exposed not only to a huge corruption trial, trials plural, that are now at the stage where his defense and his theatrical show has ended. So it's now the prosecution has moved in with very serious evidence against him. And also, of course, he will be held responsible for the failure that led to the 7th of October attack.

So there is a lot at stake there for him. And so that is the real question. And the question is, what is Donald Trump? Donald Trump has called already for the end of his trial to the call to exonerate him. The Israeli president has concurred. There are a lot of shenanigans behind the scenes there. But the other big question is, who do you transfer the authority to in Gaza so as to ensure stability?

Beyond the shenanigans, one of the big issues you point out there is whether this could be an end to the war or just a 60-day pause. Netanyahu may struggle to bring along his hard-right coalition partners who want to be kept open for Israel to go back into Gaza, while Hamas are insistent on a formal end to it. With your many years of experience in negotiations...

How could either side be persuaded to budge on this sticky issue that's blocked progress in the past? Now, I think actually we know the answer. You need to give US guarantees. The US needs to be the guarantor for the end of the conflict in Gaza. So you're not going to have a ceasefire agreement without a monitoring agreement.

a verification and implementation mechanism. No ceasefire will hold without a very detailed mechanism that needs to be worked out, and in this case, also guarantees for an end of conflict. That's what's lacking, for example, in Iran. You know, there was a push by Washington for a ceasefire, but so the ceasefire really was a cessation in the bombing, but you're likely to see resumption of conflict in various shapes and forms. It's not the end of conflict.

the Iranian-Israeli conflict. It's just an end to the way that, to those particular 12 days of the bombing. And something similar is going to happen in Gaza. The question is, how do you ensure a safe transition? So the Hamas leaders that are staying in power want to be guaranteed that they will not be targeted by Israel, but they are, they hope,

said a long time ago, maybe even a year ago, that they're prepared to transfer civilian control to a Palestinian technocratic body. And now I think they're also prepared to pass the mantle in terms of running the strip also politically to a technocratic Palestinian government. That government isn't, not a government, sorry, a body, it's not the Palestinian Authority.

So it has to be a body that is agreed on all Palestinians. And they have to move very quickly because they're fractured. They're not a united body, the Palestinian people. And they really need to move quickly to agree on who is going to take over amongst the Palestinian technocrats the running of the Strip.

with, of course, support of the leading Arab states and neighboring states. So that's Saudi Arabia and the UAE and Jordan and Egypt and Qatar. And everyone has to be involved in order to make sure that stability prevails. And of course, the U.S. needs to be involved in one way or another. Otherwise, Israel will not agree to pass on, to withdraw from the entire strip.

Nomi, since the ceasefire deal was agreed with Iran, there has been a slight return in terms of international attention to Gaza and the conditions there. How much has that attention being refocused on Gaza encouraged this progress now? So in other words, days after agreeing that ceasefire deal with Iran, could Donald Trump actually be the peacemaker he says he is?

Well, Peacemaker is a grandiose title. I think, you know, I would be hesitant because I think in order to make peace, you need to look at a long-term sustainable peace. It's a bit, I remember being asked, well,

When Saddam Hussein's statue fell in 2003 and said, oh, is this the end of the war? I said, oh, it's just the beginning. You know, it's not, you know, the question really is what and everyone declared victory, you know, and I think it's very, peace is a complex concept. Peace is not just about ending a conflict. It's about ensuring that the conflict doesn't resume. And I go back to my earlier point, you need action.

an international mechanism of monitoring, verification, compliance, plus international guarantees. And that mechanism is really important because it needs to be able to respond to things that go wrong. And lots of things are going to go wrong promptly in a manner that the parties are going to be happy with, but that will...

give them answers and guarantee that there won't be an escalation. And, you know, we've seen that in Lebanon, that there is, you know, some continuation in Syria. You know, we're looking at the whole region and these mechanisms are the key to resolving this. But first and foremost, there has to be a Palestinian technocratic body that will take over governance of Gaza promptly.

OK, Nomi, thank you. That is Nomi Bar-Yakov, an international peace negotiator who has long specialised in conflict management and the Middle East. For more on Donald Trump's negotiating techniques and how he'll be working with Israel, listen back to our episode from last week where The Times correspondent Richard Spencer joined us to answer the question, can Trump keep Israel safe?

Israel and Iran in line. And of course, with developments regarding Gaza very likely in the next few days, click follow to make sure you get The World in 10 every day. For now, that's it from us. Thank you for taking 10 minutes to stay on top of the world with the help of The Times. See you tomorrow.

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