Extended edition - Former CEO of Ukraine's state-owned energy company, Alexiy Kobolyev
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Learn more at apu.apus.edu slash military. Welcome to the World in 10. In an increasingly uncertain world, this is the Times' daily podcast dedicated to global security. I'm Toby Gillis. Usually at the weekend, we offer interviews from Frontline, Times Radio's series about the Ukraine war available on YouTube, with which the World in 10 is partnered. Today, we're doing something slightly different. On

On Thursday, we covered Ukraine's decision to stop pumping Russian gas to mainland Europe through its pipelines after their deal expired on New Year's Day. Today, we bring you more on this with the man who used to run that programme, the former head of Ukraine's state-owned energy company, Naftogaz.

Andrei Kobolyev covers the impact that the decision might have on Russia, their European allies, any diplomatic risks Ukraine might be taking with this decision, and whether the rest of the West will now pay a heavy price. We hope you find it interesting. I began by asking Alexei Kobolyev how he thinks Russia's war effort will be impacted by losing its most direct gas pipeline to Europe. Gas was always a very important part of Ukrainian economy.

and Ukraine as a country was gaining significant economic benefit out of being the transit partner for Russian gas to Europe. However, having said all of that, as a Ukrainian citizen, I agree with Zelensky's assessment that we have cut one of Russia's tentacles into Ukraine because gas business was always...

a means of bribery, corruption, and promotion of so-called, if you know this concept, Russian world, that Mr. Putin and his crony fellows love so much. So gas and gas transit in Ukraine was part of this Russian world concept. And by stopping flows of Russian gas through Ukraine also to Europe,

we have cut one of those tentacles and that will definitely have dramatic negative impact on Putin's ability to influence European politics. For example, there are at least two very well-known politicians who have been openly and I would say

Utterly obvious promoting Russian world in Europe and among NATO members. Those countries are Hungary and Slovakia, unfortunately. Recently, Mr. Fico has been on Kremlin side quite, I would say, obviously. They were partly sponsored and politically bribed through Russian gas.

By cutting gas flow through Ukraine to these guys, we have stopped that leverage being effective. I also understand that Mr. Putin will be looking for alternative ways. He will try to circumvent Ukraine. He will try to get his gas to Mr. FISA and Mr. Orban through Turkey, which he's partly doing right now. But I hope that will not last long.

I mean, obviously, Mr. Fizzo in particular has been very, very strong in the build up to this moment, talking threats of cutting electricity supply to Ukraine. Do you think that any of that has impacted Ukraine's decision to actually cut these pipelines? Do you think anything could have changed Volodymyr Zelensky's mind on this?

I actually believe that what Mr. Fitsa did played in the opposite way than he expected. I believe his huge push and his open blackmail, which is blackmail, when he's saying, oh, if you don't extend Russian transit or whatever, and he always held Ukraine responsible for all the issues. But I would say that even if Ukraine would want to continue transit,

As there is a very famous saying, it takes two to dance a tango. Russia was also, I'm not sure if Russia was ready. So from that perspective, I believe Mr. Fitsa actually did a very bad service to his idea of keeping transit because he showed to Ukrainians and he showed Europeans how much he's dependent on that.

And because he was always so vocal in his opposition to helping Ukraine, it was a no-brainer for any Ukrainian politician to say, OK, if Mr. Fits and Mr. Orban, who have been so vocal against us for keeping this transit, then probably we should not do this. That's kind of easy common sense logic.

Now, you've mentioned two of Russia's allies within Europe there in Hungary and Slovakia. There is another couple of countries, I guess, that are being affected by this. Austria, perhaps to a lesser degree, but also Moldova. Moldova is this slightly special case, isn't it, with Transnistria that's sort of effectively run by Russian military, but also contains this power plant there.

which provides 80% of the rest of Moldova's electricity and is now running on coal. Given that Moldova has currently got this pro-Western president, recently won another term, I wonder how much of a concern that is to Ukraine, because Moldova is so frequently seen as potentially the next Ukraine, if there is such a thing.

I'm not sure what you mean by Moldova seen as next Ukraine. Well, people have suggested in the past, haven't they, that perhaps if Vladimir Putin gets what he sees as success in Ukraine, then the next one on his hit list potentially could be Moldova, if you see what I mean. Well, I would say that assessment is completely wrong.

Ukraine is such a big prize, at least geography, if you look at the Ukrainian size and the amount of effort that the Western world has given to help Ukraine, that again, I don't believe that may happen, but just to follow your logic, that if Mr. Putin would win Ukraine,

he would definitely not settle for a smaller prize than attacking a NATO country next. Moldova is not a NATO country. So I would not expect him going to Moldova. I would expect him going somewhere where stakes are way higher than they were in Ukraine. That's very logical. And that was always the KGB logic of increasing stakes if you win.

So I would not kind of look at that scenario as probable at all. Now, speaking of gas and of Transnistria, I believe we have entered a big battle, that battle of vital importance. If Putin wins in Transnistria and he manages to put so much pressure on Transnistria and through Transnistria on Moldovan government,

that the Moldovan government will have to make any concessions. And by the way, I believe that Sandu is pretty much well-equipped to fight this battle and to win. But if she would not win, then Putin again would take that sign as stimulus to raise stakes. And that's what he would do. So you would see more attack on energy front in Europe.

If he loses, then Europe would win and then Putin would have to step back. So I believe it is in the interest of Europe, it is in the interest of NATO, it is in the interest of the Western world and Ukraine as well, to make sure that Moldova and Transnistria do not lose the battle. There is no crisis in Transnistria and

I know many people are working right now to make sure that Transnistrians are safe, their houses are warm, there is electricity, and that Moldova as a country is supplied in full. And I hope very much they will succeed.

Currently, so this decision that Ukraine has made is what is impacting Moldova. And you are saying that it's not in Western interests to allow Moldova to go cold. I'm just wondering whether the cost to the West is one that you believe they will be happy to swallow. Well, I don't see actually a big cost to the West in this aspect. There is some elements of this. So Russia was obviously sponsoring Transnistrian government.

by giving them cheap gas. Now that's over. Whether Transnistria can move and start buying gas elsewhere, the answer to this question will be decisive in determining whether it's a cost to the West or it's actually a gain. Because it's a new market, it's a new territory. That territory is full with people who have economic activity.

So if that opportunity is treated in the right way, that will not be the cost, that will actually be the investment. And that, in my view, how it should be seen from the Western point of view, from European Union, from US, from NATO countries, that they are building a new line of defense,

against Russia and Transnistria and Moldova is part of the process. So I would not say that is a cost. It is probably a cost in the eyes of such people like Mr. Orban, who sees any money sent to Ukraine or Moldova and to anybody who is fighting Russia is unnecessary. And he's doing this little trick by saying, why don't you send that money to us or to other European countries? That would do much better good.

But this is how Russian propaganda and Russian puppets are working. They're not saying, no, no, we are for Russia. No, they would not admit that. They would say, oh, please give the money you intended to give to defense for just spending, which is not right.

Now, you mentioned there that you don't anticipate Maya Sandu, the president of Moldova, having too many concerns going forward in terms of keeping the people of Moldova and Transnistria warm, effectively. But almost certainly, my understanding from the people I've spoken to today is that the expectation is that

Gas costs are going to rise here. And I'm wondering whether if that happens in Moldova, where she has this very narrow grasp on power, and there are parliamentary elections on the way that no doubt Russia are keen to influence. If these costs rise to such a degree that people start turning against her, this could be a massive benefit to Russia, couldn't it?

Well, firstly, let's look at Moldova in more detail. So firstly, there is the right bank and there is the left bank. The right bank is controlled by Chisinau, by Maya Sandu government. The left bank is Transnistria. It is de facto controlled by Russia.

So the right bank has been buying gas in Europe or outside of Russian supply for several years. And they have been successful in doing that. And my son won presidential election after she was the leader and political champion of bringing gas market reform to her country, which is always very painful.

So tearing away any country from cheap Russian gas is always a very costly exercise to any politician. And I believe Maya Sandu did amazingly good job in keeping her people trusting her. And she used methods which are very well known and very much accepted in the European Union by giving monetary compensation to those who were in need.

And there are many people in Moldova who were in need and Sandu succeeded in doing so. Now, if we look at the current situation, the same is going to happen in Transnistria. So Russians were giving gas to Transnistria basically for free. So local government was making money on reselling this free gas to local population at some margin and using that money for various purposes.

Now they will have to get that gas or maybe other sources of energy elsewhere paying market price. Obviously, European Union and the West cannot give Moldova cheap gas. But what Moldova can get? Moldova can get financial assistance as an investment, which will be used to pay for this transition period where Moldovans will move to a more efficient economy.

And practice shows that at the end of the day, that economy is way more successful and way more accepted and loved by local people than the Russian world economy, where you get cheap gas, but you live in society where you cannot do anything properly because it's completely corrupt. It's military driven. It's driven by Russian world values.

Now, the challenge that Sandu is having is to show to Transnistrians within next year, up until next election, that their choice, I mean, the choice of all people of Moldova to accept Western world, not Russian world, was the right choice.

That's a challenge, I agree with you. But she has succeeded in doing so in 2021. I believe she has all chances to succeed in 2025.

What she needs, she needs firstly support from the West, but also she needs a very thought-through plan which she will implement in relation to local economy in Moldova, in Transnistria, how she will move from cheap or zero-cost Russian gas to proper Western economy. It's completely doable. We'll see soon if she succeeds.

I just want to ask you one more on sort of, you know, potential ramifications of this decision. And that is, do you fear at all that this could push Russia ever closer to China? I mean, China has sort of been stalling, hasn't they, on new pipelines through Siberia. I'm just wondering whether, you know, Vladimir Putin might now be incentivized even to sort of push for that even harder and actually to...

ever closer relations between China and Russia? Vladimir Putin is already in that position. And the only reason why his process with China has been stalled is because China has been making as much as they could out of Russia's weak position in the West. So they're using a weak Russia position to negotiate. They're using that position to put as much pressure on gas price from Russia as they can.

So I don't believe that current situation will change a lot of Vladimir Putin's view of the world. He was deliberately going into Chinese direction. He was trying to move all exports of energy from Russia to the West, to China, because he realized that the West doesn't want to deal with him anymore. And that's a problem.

That problem does have an obvious solution. And that solution is called secondary sanctions. So in order to make sure that Mr. Putin doesn't get too close with China and doesn't get too far into moving completely into economic, I would say,

subordinate or country that is using all its resources simply to give it to China is to use secondary sanctions to make sure it doesn't happen. But I agree with your assessment is that the problem of Russia moving to close China does exist.

I just have one final question for you then and I want to put you in someone's shoes that I imagine you would rather not be in and those are the shoes of Vladimir Putin if you were him right now or even if you were part of the Ukrainian government and you're trying to second guess what his next move would be in light of this decision what would you anticipate he would do what would you be doing or thinking about doing if you were Vladimir Putin because his options seem to be narrowing the way that you've been describing things

I believe it's obvious. He will try to use his corridor on the south that he has been working on so hard to go back to Europe. He doesn't want to lose Europe. So Vladimir Putin right now is working very hard to push as much as he can of his own Russian gas through Azerbaijan and then through this newly built pipeline, which goes through Turkey to Europe.

And Azerbaijan in this whole setup will be used by Russia as a legitimate intermediary, reselling some gas, obviously Russian, to Europe. So that's what he's been working on really hard. And that, in my view, what he will try to do to circumvent Ukraine. Also, I believe that if Mr. Trump is successful,

in putting real pressure on Mr. Putin financially, and he would be successful in making Kremlin sign the deal, I believe we will also see attempts to resurrect the Nord Stream pipeline. There is at least one pipe which is still potentially operational. Other pipelines can be restored, in my view, within a very short period of time.

So that would be his next move. And it's very important that the West will take a consolidated position and the West will not follow the mistake that Germans did in the past, where they allowed the Trojan horse from Russia, which is called Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2, to divide Europe. If there's going to be one position, one consolidated position, then Mr. Putin can be put in a position

necessity to negotiate properly with the West and actually give good and proper conditions of the potentially expected peace treaty. That was an extended interview with Alexei Kobolyev, the former head of Ukraine's state-owned energy company, Naftogaz. That's it for today. Thank you for spending 10 minutes to stay on top of the world with the help of The Times. We'll see you tomorrow.

We all want to enjoy food that tastes great and is sourced responsibly. But it's not always easy to know where your favourite foods come from. McDonald's works with more than 23,000 British and Irish farmers to source quality ingredients. Mike Allwood is a dairy farmer from Cheshire who supplies organic milk to McDonald's in the UK for its teas, coffees and porridge through Arla.

We're involved in a network which has been set up by Arla to look at the possibilities for farming regeneratively. One of the things we're doing here is moving our cattle and giving them a fresh piece of grass every day to help regenerate the soil. We're very lucky that we've had a long-term relationship with McDonald's and I think often people don't realise how seriously McDonald's take their relationships with farmers.

Change a little, change a lot. Find out more about McDonald's plan for change on the McDonald's website.