Frontline special - former US ambassador Kurt Volker
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Welcome to the World in 10. In an increasingly uncertain world, this is The Times' daily podcast dedicated to global security. I'm Alex Dibble, and I executive produce the podcast.

The World in 10 is partnered with Frontline, the interview series from Times Radio, available on YouTube, with expert analysis of the world's conflicts. At the weekend, we bring you Frontline interviews in full. Here's one from this week. I hope you find it interesting.

Hello and welcome to Frontline for Times Radio with me, Kate Chabot. And today we are joined by former U.S. Ambassador to NATO, Kurt Volker. Ambassador Volker is a leading expert in U.S. foreign and national security policy. He's a distinguished fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis and was U.S. special representative for Ukraine negotiations between 2017 and 2019.

Ambassador Volker, great to meet you. Thank you for joining us again on Frontline. It's a pleasure to be with you, Kate. Thank you very much. Drawing on your years of experience in diplomacy, I'm really keen to get what you've observed in how the new Trump administration is handling relations between Washington, Kiev and Moscow. Right. I think the new dynamic here is an administration in the United States that is willing to act

So what we had with the Biden administration was delay, hesitation, partial measures, urging restraint, wanting to avoid escalation. So that kind of cautious approach.

And what you see with President Trump, and it's not only his dealings concerning Russia and Ukraine, but generally the way he is acting, it is someone who is willing to take action, who is willing to escalate, and is daring anybody to cause him to escalate.

This is a very different style. I think it has caught Vladimir Putin off guard. Putin came out of his shell and already said he's willing to negotiate. Of course, he doesn't mean it. He's not sincere about that. But the fact that he did that is interesting because he's responding to President Trump. The second thing is I think that

What President Trump is doing is he, and you may remember a tweet that he put out in his first day in office, first full day in office. He's holding Putin accountable for the war and saying Putin has to stop the war. So it's not one of these both sides, blah, blah, blah. He's holding Putin accountable and saying you have to stop the war.

He has highlighted how weak Russia is, particularly economically, which is an important point to make. And by contrast, portraying himself as very strong. So he has options. He has threatened escalation in terms of tariffs, taxes and sanctions. And he has said that he would do that if Putin does not stop the war. So it's a very strong message going to Russia right now.

As for Ukraine, Ukraine has played it very smart. They said they were willing to negotiate. We understand we're not going to get all of our territory back militarily, so we'll pursue that by other means. And we just need security guarantees so they don't attack again again.

And that is something that I think Trump looks at as saying, OK, that's reasonable and Europe can provide those guarantees. So I think he has changed the dynamic already. And I do expect that this is going to play out in a few fashions more later this year. And what do you think the reality is at the moment of any progress towards any negotiations to end the war? Because President Zelensky continues to reiterate that.

that he's ready so long as sovereignty is preserved. But Moscow isn't serious, according to many among the British foreign secretaries, one of those who was in Kiev who said so himself. What do you think reality is of any progress? Yeah, and this is the key. It's not about convincing Ukraine. It's about convincing Putin that he needs to stop the war.

And there are three main levers that the Trump administration has right now. One of them, they're already pursuing, which is increasing U.S. oil and gas production and exports and trying to drive down global energy prices. That will have an impact on Putin's budget, which is important.

Second is the implementation of tough sanctions on Russia's energy sector and banking system. This is something that the Biden administration put in place in its final days of office. Should have been done years ago. But in the last Friday that they were in office, they put in place some actually very serious sanctions on Russia's energy sector.

Trump has not lifted those. He's not even talked about those. And they are therefore being implemented, and I think they can be pursued vigorously. That should also have an impact on Putin's budget.

Then the third thing is going to be a continuation of military support for Ukraine. This is something the Trump administration has not talked about yet. I think they're deliberately holding back to see reactions from Putin. But I think we will find ourselves in a situation where we are continuing to provide weapons and arms to Ukraine on a different basis than the Biden administration. So not taxpayer money paying for this.

but rather loans to Ukraine where they can borrow the money and buy American weapons. And ideally pressuring the Europeans to seize the frozen Russian assets. There's $300 billion of frozen Russian assets, seize those and use some of that to buy American weapons as well. So I think when those three things are clear on the table and no end in sight, I think that's when you start to see Putin say, okay, we'll have a ceasefire. And yet, um,

USAID has been cut off to Ukraine as well as the other countries in that 90-day stop that Trump has announced. That is hurting Ukraine. Well, the USAID funding, yes, that has been suspended and it's being reviewed. It'll be a 90-day review. In the case of Ukraine, it might be accelerated. Some of the programs, anything that's going to be suspended,

What the Trump administration would call wokeism, LGBTQ groups and civil society activists that pursue a progressive political agenda, that's going to be cut out. The rest, that is more about advancing America's interests, including our interest in a healthy and strong Ukrainian society. I think those will be resumed again.

And, yeah, it's a shame that it is cut off now. It is a pause, not a cancellation completely. And I do think that we will get that back on track in a few months.

Just to go back to something you were saying a little earlier, the way that Donald Trump is prepared to play tough with President Putin. And right after his inauguration, he seemed determined to get him to the negotiating table by saying it's time to make a deal. Otherwise, he'd impose tariffs, taxes, sanctions. And I know that you thought at the time that this was him getting that psychological dynamic straight, you quoted as saying. But what I'm interested is that

Other people have commented since that he seems to have gone very quiet on this tough rhetoric. And if you look at his special envoy to Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, he's suggesting any truce. I see you smiling there. I'm looking forward to hearing what you have to say. But he's saying any truce would be dependent on presidential elections in Ukraine, which is exactly the kind of line the Kremlin will be applauding and exactly the kind of talk you would, I presume, caution against. So first off, I live in Washington, D.C.,

And the perception here is that Trump has been anything but quiet. So we are feeling a bit whipsawed at the scale and the speed and the scope of the decisions that he's making across the board. It's just one thing after another. So the fact that it has been 10 days since he turned attention to Ukraine,

A lot's happened in the 10 days of other issues as well, including now it looks as though we're going to have a beautiful beachfront resort in Gaza. As for elections, I think General Kellogg got a little caught in his own presentation because you're absolutely right. Elections now.

is a Russian device to delegitimize Zelensky and not deal with him and to shift the burden to ending the war away from Russia and onto Ukraine somehow. So that is what the Russians are doing. However, what I think Kellogg was trying to say is we need a ceasefire. The fighting has to stop.

Then Ukraine is going to be in a position to lift martial law, which they've had in place for several years. And after that, they are going to have to have elections. It is a democracy. They do need to do that. Ukrainians want to do that. So I think he just didn't emphasize ending the war first and that they have to lift martial law first.

The only reason there's martial law is because Russia's attacking and they have to defend themselves. So for Putin to suggest to have an election now, that's totally disingenuous because he knows that they can't do that because he's attacking Ukraine. But thinking ahead, it's not only about ending the war, it's then building a permanent peace. And a part of that will be Ukraine having elections again.

So it's just down the road. I think the sequencing was not emphasized enough in what he said. And since you mentioned Gaza, I will too, a consternation over what President Putin said to take over the Gaza Strip and move the Palestinians out. The Israeli leader described it as willingness to puncture conventional thinking. What

What does that kind of thinking mean for Ukraine going ahead? Well, actually, it was President Trump who said that. But I think what Netanyahu said is actually very, very true. If you avoid the caricatures and you just think about where we've been with the Middle East for a long time and with Gaza,

A two-state solution is not going to happen. The Israelis will never trust a Palestinian state on its own after what happened on October 7th. Likewise, a single-state solution is not going to happen. The Palestinians will not live peacefully in Israel. So you need something else. And what Trump is doing is he's putting out the idea, okay,

You guys can't figure this out. I'll come up with something else. We'll take it over and we'll build a resort. I don't think that that is entirely serious, although it could be, but I don't think it's entirely serious. But he's trying to throw out there you've got to come up with something else.

And I do think that there's a variation of what Trump has said that actually makes some sense, which is put it under an international mandate. We've had these in the past through the UN. Put it under an international mandate, have a governing board that is creating some kind of peace and stability.

and then do bring in financial resources to develop the economy. And particularly, you know, it could be a nice area. Do that. And that will change the dynamic. It's going to be neither two-state nor one-state and something entirely different. That's a good thing. Now, your question was, how does that apply to Ukraine? I think...

I think what Trump is doing with respect to Ukraine and where maybe there's a linkage is he's again focusing on a single thing.

saying just stop the fighting. He's not getting bogged down in this piece of territory or that piece of territory, local autonomy, use of language, referendum in this place, distance between the forces around the demilitarized zone. What are the future security guarantees? Does Russia get any kind of assurances? He's not getting into any of that.

he's trying to keep it very very simple and just say stop the fighting stop the war that then creates space where obviously putin will try to regroup rearm and plan to attack again we know that but it's also space for ukraine and the west to develop ukraine better economically institutions

preparations and then eventual EU membership, security guarantees, European troop presence, eventually NATO membership, we can get Ukraine successfully integrated as a European democracy with the rest of Europe while it has a territorial dispute. That's a very different situation than where we are now where Russia is attacking because they see no reason not to.

And Ukraine is defending itself. So you have a hot war, an ongoing war. So he's trying to separate Ukraine

from dispute and see whether you can have an ongoing dispute but at the same time make Ukraine succeed. And at the same time, he is also talking business, isn't he? Because he's talking openly already about minerals for aid deal where Ukraine would grant access to rare minerals in return for U.S. aid. And President Zelensky had already touted this concept himself in his victory plan. Is it a good idea? Well, it's interesting. It's not, again, it sounds bad

brutal and cynical, but it's really not because what we're talking about here in the end of the day is money. The U.S. has provided, I don't know the exact figure anymore, probably about $200 billion worth of assistance to Ukraine, free, just out of our budget, off the back of U.S. taxpayers.

What Trump is saying is we're happy to help. We want to help, but you got to pay. You got to pay us back. That's what he's saying. Ukraine has a wealth of natural resources, including minerals. So it is conceivable that you could work something out where we get access to value of

resources that we need anyway from Ukraine. We provide the security for Ukraine, secures those resources as well. It's actually a good deal for everybody. So that is the sort of thing that is sort of the way Trump thinks, is he's thinking of a transaction like that that makes sense for everybody. I was just at a Ukraine business forum in Washington, D.C. yesterday and

And that, in fact, was a big topic of conversation. Not so much the transactional element with the Trump administration, although that's in everybody's mind, but the idea that Ukraine has lots and lots of resources.

and can develop these resources and can be very wealthy. So they're not afraid to make a deal and be in a position where they can take advantage of the resources they have to save their country and their independence. Of course, resources which President Putin is also keen to get his hands on. It's no accident that a considerable amount of Ukraine's rare earth metals are in Donetsk, Crimea and Luhansk.

It gives Putin the strongest of incentives to gain ground by force and hang on to it by negotiation. Yeah, that's right. And it is also interesting because if what you have is a ceasefire in place and we stabilize and protect the 80% of Ukraine that's not occupied, right?

And Putin retains control, occupation of those areas of Ukraine. It now creates a legal dynamic where there can be a claim put on any Russian exploitation of resources in those occupied areas that they should not be in. So it sets up a long-term economic conundrum for Russia. If it actually does that, this can be pursued diligently for a very long time.

I just want to get your reaction to a comment that was made by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on the Megyn Kelly show that Ukraine can never regain its legally recognized territory and had no chance of defeating Russia. What's your reaction to that? Well, I disagree with that. I think it can. I think what he may have been trying to say is it doesn't have the military means to defeat Russian forces and take it all back right now.

And that would be true. I would agree with that. They don't have the ability to do that. But, you know, we've been living in a complex and changing world for a very long time.

Germany was divided, then it was unified again. Baltic states were occupied by the Soviet Union. Now they're independent states. Czechoslovakia was one country, now it's two countries. Yugoslavia was one country and it divided. Kosovo was attacked, occupied, freed, independent, not independent. So things always change. And I think what we see with Russia right now is that

A single person, Vladimir Putin, who has taken it upon himself to rebuild the Russian Empire. It's his personal mission to create this empire off the back of the Soviet Union, off the back of the former Russian Empire. He's going to fail and he will eventually die. However old he lives to be, he eventually won't be there. And the Russian system right now is built around him. It's built around him as a single authoritarian figure who runs the country.

And I would suggest that the moment that Putin is gone, the country can actually start to think about what's in its own interest again.

And that's going to lead to a lot of change inside Russia. And I would not rule out that there is even questioning inside Russia about the extent of their empire because it is unaffordable and has weakened Russia. And taking all of that into account, if you right now were the US special representative for Ukraine negotiations, what would you be advising the Ukrainian government? I would say align yourself with President Trump. Don't

Try to veer off or argue with or get into a confrontation with the United States. We're on your side and we want to get an end to this war and we want to make sure that you survive this well. And there needs to be a peace and a just peace. So don't argue with the U.S. here.

Push on Russia. Get Putin to agree to end the war. Keep that focus and help us keep that focus. There was a moment right after Trump's first couple of days in office when President Zelensky was doing an interview, might have been Sky News, and he was asked about European troops in Ukraine.

And he gave an honest answer, which is that's not enough. And, you know, we need to have American troops as well. And they can't just be in central Ukraine. They have to be on the front lines. Okay, I understand that's how he is feeling dealing with a live war that he has to fight right now. But that's getting off message.

That is giving Putin a way to drive a wedge between the US and Ukraine and Europe and the United States. You've got to keep the focus on Putin and the war. And you have stressed before that it is for Ukraine to decide what is acceptable in any deal for peace. How important is it that it is President Zelensky, who is the leader, who delivers that, and especially now when the Kremlin is trying to undermine him? Absolutely.

President Zelensky is, you know, he is the elected leader of Ukraine. He's a legitimate leader there. And he speaks for the Ukrainian people. I mean, he has led them through the darkest hours of this conflict and people respect him. So he is the person, he is the voice that Ukrainians respect and need to hear from. It is essential that he be the one to say, we have to do this.

Now, that being said, he has already done this. And he said back in December, look, we recognize we're not going to take all the territory back militarily. We can pursue the recovery of our territory by other means, diplomatic and political.

And we need to have peace so that we can stabilize the country, give people a break from the war, refugees can come home, rebuild the economy, get into the European Union. But to do that, we've got to have guarantees of security so that we deter Putin from attacking again. And I think that formula, the way he described that, is something the majority of Ukrainians fully support. They think that it's time to do that. And is it possible?

It is possible if you get Putin to stop fighting. And this is an important point. So thanks for bringing that up, Keith. I don't believe that Putin will agree to anything. I think Putin is determined to take over Ukraine. He will either lie and say that he agrees or just not agree. So what Trump is doing is actually smart in the sense that you just get him to stop fighting. Get the fighting to die off.

Then you can work on how to build peace. And Putin doesn't have to agree to anything. We just do it with Ukraine. Ukraine's a sovereign, independent country. They have vast territory. They have a great, talented population. They have a big economy. They can do this and we can help them do this so that you create a strong enough entity that

that Putin doesn't attack again. And you're not getting Putin to agree to signing on a dotted line, oh, Ukraine is a sovereign, independent European democracy. He won't do that. But let's not insist that he do it. Let's just stop the fighting and then do it ourselves. A lot can happen between now and the next NATO summit, which is in June. And we often talk about Ukraine wanting a future in NATO. But what does NATO's future look like if Ukraine's isn't secured? Very good question as well.

I don't believe that we will have a permanent and reliable peace in Europe until Ukraine is in NATO. That is the one thing that successfully deters Putin. And he wants to take back territory that used to belong to Russia, which includes not only Ukraine, but other countries in Europe as well.

And so I think we have a real problem until Ukraine is in NATO and we build a real strong defense system against Russian aggression. So that's where I think this has to go. I don't believe we will get this done by June. I think where we will be is getting a ceasefire in Ukraine.

strengthening NATO as it is without Ukraine as a member, including countries raising their defense spending targets, forward deploying forces, developing more rapid response forces, and security guarantees, including the possibility of a true presence in Ukraine. I think that's as far as we're going to get this year. But

we shouldn't just then rest on our laurels and focus on Asia. We are going to have to do more in Europe after that. And I think getting Ukraine stabilized fully into the EU and into NATO is essential. And if you got that done, it'd be a good start, wouldn't it? Yeah. Oh, yeah. Yeah. It's a good start. I think a ceasefire and an end to the fighting is going to be likely this year and a very good start. But

But we have to remember that nothing's ever over. You have to keep working. Kurt Volker, great to speak to you. Thank you for your time. It's a pleasure. Thank you. Thank you.

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