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Welcome to The World in 10. In an increasingly uncertain world, this is The Times' daily podcast dedicated to global security. Today with me, Tom Noonan and Toby Gillis. The US and Ukraine have signed a memorandum of intent suggesting they'll agree that minerals deal, which was derailed by Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky's televised row in the Oval Office...
and proposing a future reconstruction fund for Ukraine. At the same time, after weeks of allies and analysts claiming Russia is stalling on a peace deal, Secretary of State Marco Rubio has said the US will walk away from talks if a ceasefire isn't agreed. So is the relationship between Washington and Kiev healing?
and have things cooled with the Kremlin. Our guest today is Professor Scott Lucas, a specialist in US foreign policy and professor of American Studies at the Clinton Institute at University College Dublin. Scott, just starting on this news about progress towards a minerals deal, it seems like this is a more positive step for those who want the US and Ukraine to work closely together. Where do you think it leaves us?
Well, the starting point is that we actually have different camps within the Trump administration that are giving different signals. So if we focus on the rare earth minerals and give a bit of context, we know that there have been signals all along from Donald Trump and from his vice president, J.D. Vance, trashing the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky. But there are others in the Trump administration who are more the adults in the room.
who don't think it's necessarily a good thing that you wind up getting into bed and working with the Kremlin. Those adults in the room probably include the envoy to Ukraine, Keith Kellogg. To an extent, I think it includes Rubio. To an extent, I think it includes the National Security Advisor, Mike Waltz. So...
In phase one of trying to get this rare earth minerals deal back in January, February, they cut through Trump's denunciation of Zelensky as a dictator. Now, you know that phase one ended on February 28th when J.D. Vance, who doesn't favor any type of cooperation with Ukrainian security, he ambushed Zelensky. The Ukrainian delegation got thrown out of the White House and we thought that was it. You know, it was absolutely game up. But what has happened in the next almost two months?
Ukraine, working with the Europeans, tried to get back on side with some Trump administration officials, and they succeeded by getting direct U.S.-Ukraine talks. And what you come up with is, and I must emphasize, it's not an agreement. It's not a deal. It's a memorandum of intent. It does not give a breakdown on numbers. It does not say how much the U.S. has to be repaid.
So that's the next stage of this. Are we going to get an agreement where first and foremost, Trump has to get his money back because he sees it as his money back? Or are we back to where we were in February with the draft, which is that we're talking about a fund that goes into Ukraine's recovery and into its reconstruction while the U.S. gets at least some of the profits from the sale of the rare earth minerals?
So is this a sign that the relationship between the US and Ukraine is healing? It is a sign that there is a faction within the Trump administration that is willing to work with Ukraine and with the Europeans across a number of fronts.
Because the rare earth minerals deal, and remember this, the reason why it collapsed at the end of February is that Zelensky said it has to be connected to security guarantees. You can't just take our rare earth minerals and leave us unprotected. And so we are now back at that point, which is as you proceed with the negotiations for an agreement on rare earth minerals, you have to include a question, or sorry, you have to include talks about security guarantees.
So we have a faction within the Trump administration which will consider those security guarantees, but can they prevail? So I've got this, you know, I'm sitting here looking at the half full aside of this, which is we haven't lost Trump. We haven't lost Vance to the Kremlin, but no matter how crazed their statements are, but at the same side, it's only half full because you don't have a firm foundation
American assurance that it's going to protect Europe as well as Ukraine. Because again, here's the caveat. While we have the adults in the room, Kellogg, probably Rubio, certainly staff members, you have a J.D. Vance who continues to have no interest in European security, let alone Ukrainian security. So the battle continues.
As you've said, the minerals deal broke down initially because of that argument in the Oval Office back in February. Do you think that Donald Trump and J.D. Vance and Volodymyr Zelensky have buried the hatchet? I just think we're in, you know, we're now almost two months beyond that Oval Office meeting. And we're now in what is a changed reality in what even Trump and Vance must see. And that is
Russia will not accept a ceasefire. So at some point, even if you're Trump or Vance, you got to realize we're not going to get Donald Trump and a photo opportunity with Vladimir Putin declaring war is over. You're not going to get that. That's why you got the frustration from Rubio. And that's why you get this new reality. And what does Kiev has as an advantage? They're the guys who will talk.
They're the guys who will negotiate. And that's where Kiev and Europe have this diplomatic high ground. And that's why they finally got Rubio. And for what it's worth, Steve Witkoff, the real estate developer, that's why they got them to Paris yesterday. Now, does that mean that Ukraine has won? No, this is not over and it won't be over for some time.
Tom, I've always said this is a marathon, not a sprint. But it's a marathon where Ukraine is still in the race. And how many people would have expected that in February 2022? Scott, we've had Marco Rubio, the Secretary of State, threatening that the US may just walk away from peace talks if there's no agreement. Do you think that threat is aimed at the Kremlin in order to stop it dragging its feet more than it is at Ukraine?
Now, Rubio's threat is just is it both sides? You know, this is almost like, you know, well, we don't know what we're going to do next. Let's just throw our hands up in the air. But I think there's a bit of frustration here because Rubio is kind of even though there's some traction within the administration, which is to give some support to Ukraine. It's an absolute mess right now. Remember who Rubio was with in Paris on Thursday? He was with Steve Witkoff. Now, let me go studs up here.
Steve Witkoff is a real estate developer. He is a golfing buddy of Donald Trump. He has no diplomatic experience. He effectively has wound up kissing the ring of Vladimir Putin. So you've got folks within the Trump administration who not only have no diplomatic experience, they've been captivated by Putin. And we know Trump himself in the past has been captivated by Putin, right? So we have diplomatic reality.
versus this bizarre personal attraction. And they clash at this point. I think, not for me to advise Vladimir Putin, you know, and I don't think he would listen to my advice. I think if the Kremlin over the past six to eight weeks had just played nice with its rhetoric, I think if they had actually limited the attacks on Ukraine's civilian areas,
I think if they had at least said, we'll accept a ceasefire in the Black Sea, I think they'd be into a winning position right now. But the Kremlin just couldn't stop. It meant that they lost the opportunity to fix Trump in their pocket. And it gave Ukraine and Europe the space to be able to come back, to come back and sort of set the terms for
for a deal which Russia won't accept, but which is much more favourable to Ukraine's survival. Some analysts have suggested the US officials have been a bit naive, perhaps, in how they've dealt with Russia and Vladimir Putin. I mean, you just said Steve Witkoff has been beholden to Putin. Do you think there's any sign that that has shifted at all and that Trump has actually become more sceptical about the Kremlin's intentions?
I'm going to be polite about what I say about Donald Trump at this point. He doesn't know what's going on over Ukraine. Donald Trump, and the polite way of calling it this is a transactional politician, he wants photo opportunities. And he still wants that photo opportunity, which is, I solved it. And that's not going to change. So you've got to get back to the fact that
That there are others in the Trump administration who know a bit more about Ukraine, a bit more about Russia, and they're not, they don't have stars in their eyes that they're going to get that photo op with Putin. And you have to work them, but you defend Ukraine despite Trump, not because of him.
Scott, thank you. That is Professor Scott Lucas from the Clinton Institute at University College Dublin. As we've spoken about in this episode, the relationship between the US and Ukraine is incredibly closely linked to the US's relationship with Russia.
We looked at that and what Vladimir Putin's strategy is at the moment in more depth in Tuesday's episode called How Russia and Trump Shape Ukraine's Future. So if you want the flip side of what's driving these developments, do go back and have a listen to that. That's it from us. Thank you for taking 10 minutes to stay on top of the world with the help of The Times. See you tomorrow.
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If I come off of the GLP-1, it's not going to automatically make my weight yo-yo back.
$149 GLP-1s? Now that's Noom smart. Get started at Noom.com. Real Noom user composited to provide their story. Individual results may vary. Not all customers will medically qualify for prescription medications. Compacted medications are not reviewed by the FDA for safety, efficacy, or quality.