Netanyahu survives risk of government collapse as Israel approves Gaza ceasefire
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Welcome to The World in 10. In an increasingly uncertain world, this is The Times daily podcast dedicated to global security. Today with me, Tom Noonan and Alex Dibble. After more than 24 hours of delays, Israel's security cabinet has approved the ceasefire deal for Gaza. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had accused Hamas of blackmailing Israel by making last-minute changes to the deal that was announced by Qatar and the U.S.,

But by Friday morning, all that had been ironed out. So now Netanyahu says the first Israeli hostages could be home as soon as Sunday as part of this six-week ceasefire, which is the first stage of bringing the violence in Gaza to an end. But what's going to happen in that time, both in Israel and Gaza? Can Netanyahu actually keep his government going until then, given that he currently relies on parties opposed to the deal?

And is there any guarantee that this temporary pause to fighting will actually lead to a lasting peace? Our guest today is The Times' Richard Spencer. Richard, for a long time in this conflict, analysts have suggested that Benjamin Netanyahu would be in serious political danger if and when a ceasefire actually came, and that that was the moment when his whole coalition could well fall apart.

We're now at that moment. Has that actually happened or will he survive this moment of maximum peril? I think the thinking at the moment is that Netanyahu has managed to pull this off, as he so often tends to do. Two far-right members of the cabinet have been threatening to resign over this deal. They oppose it. One of those, Itamar Ben-Gavir, who's the public security minister, has said he will resign if the deal is signed.

which it seems as if it will be, he will be taking six of his MPs out of the coalition, which isn't enough to crash the government, but almost is.

The other cabinet minister, Belizel Smotryk, has said he would oppose the deal, but at the moment is staying inside the government, which is just enough to keep the government going. Now, the only problem with this is that Smotryk, you know, he wants at the end of the first prisoner exchange, the 42 days period,

a guarantee that Netanyahu will, in fact, return to fighting Hamas until Hamas is destroyed. Now, that, of course, is not the understanding of what this ceasefire is all about for the rest of the world. So, you know, there is a contradiction there between what we think we have in a deal here and what the far right in Netanyahu's government are expecting.

Richard, what does this mean for Hamas, this ceasefire deal? Do you expect that we're going to see them coming out of the tunnels underneath Gaza where they've been hiding? They're not a sort of uniformed army as such. So...

you know, you won't see who is out of the tunnels or not. I imagine the leaders that Israel can identify, for example, Mohammed Sinwa, the brother of Yahya Sinwa, the overall leader in Gaza who was killed back in October.

Mohammed Sinwa is now believed to be the effective leader of Hamas in Gaza. I don't suppose we'll see him on the ground, but of course, there won't be much to distinguish your average Hamas fighter from a civilian male when all those millions of Gazans start to return to their homes or what's left of them. So, yeah,

You know, we will start to see certainly some of the civilian apparatus of government returning. Though again, you know, looking at the destruction there, you know, it's a question of what it's returning to. And while Benjamin Netanyahu says hostages will be returning to Israel as soon as Sunday, that also means Palestinian prisoners are going to be released in exchange very soon. Now, if some of those are former members of Hamas...

Are we expecting them to reintegrate back into Hamas? And indeed, could they be even playing a role in negotiating with Israel in six weeks' time for the next two stages? That's a very good question. And it actually goes to one of the few points that we simply don't know about. So one of the issues, one of the agreements in this deal we know is that among the prisoners released will be no less than, for example, 50 people

50 people, 50 Palestinian prisons serving life terms for terrorist offences as Israel would regard it, murderers, people who've led hostile operations against Israel, depending on how you term these things.

There is talk that they will be sent into exile, so not allowed to go back to either the West Bank or Gaza. There's talk about them going to exile in Qatar. One very important name that's being discussed is that of Marwan Bagouti, who is regarded by many Palestinians as their sort of leader in prison, if you like. He was a leader of the Intifada, the two uprisings against Israeli rule in the 90s.

occupied territories in Israel itself in the late 80s and early 90s and again in the early 2000s. He's very popular with all factions in the Palestinian cause, but Israel regard him as a murderer. He's currently serving five life terms for murder.

we don't know if his name is on the list and to be freed. If he is freed, we don't know where he will end up, whether he will be sent to Qatar. I can't imagine he'll be allowed to go and set up in the West Bank or in Gaza. So again, you know, there's a bit of a sort of contradiction or moral quandary, if you like, in that

You know, Israel could release, you know, leaders of the Palestinian cause who are not affiliated with Hamas, like Marwan Bagouti, who have respect from all the factions who could take up a governing role. But by virtue of the offenses for which they are imprisoned, Israel is not going to want to see them go back to the West Bank or Gaza and take up those roles.

Richard, Israel says it has completely destroyed Hamas's military capability over the last 15 months of fighting in Gaza.

Can Hamas build that back up even slightly over a six-week period? Or do you expect Hamas to just focus on rebuilding its political reputation, its links with Iran, with Hezbollah, and indeed across the Middle East? Yeah, there's absolutely no sign that Hamas is giving up the military struggle. You know, there is no sign of it saying, OK, we messed up. We shouldn't have been a military resistance. We should have been a political faction.

The assumption is that particularly now that this ceasefire has been done without a commitment by Hamas to disarm, that it will try to rearm. And I say that's why Israel would say, that's why Netanyahu would say, it is insisting on the right to resume the war if it needs to. And so just to fast forward to the end of this phase,

Do you think it's likely that this ceasefire will actually get extended to phase two and phase three without any sort of return to fighting? Yeah. So, I mean, this is the key question. And it's a lot depends on which perspective you look at it. I mean, the first two phases of the deal, at least,

look fairly straightforward. I mean, there's a fairly clear agreement on the release of hostages for prisoners down to very tight details of how many prisoners are released and of what sort.

There's a clear rationale for both phases. So, you know, first phase, first six weeks, you have the women and children and the older men. The second phase, you have all the other living hostages. And then the third phase is the bodies of other hostages in return for more prisoners. So you might say logically, if there were to be a return to conflict, Israel might wait until the end of the second phase.

At the moment, you know, Netanyahu is not guaranteed there will be a resumption of fighting, that he won't continue to go after Hamas. He has made the destruction of Hamas as, you know, one of the key goals of the war. He says he's not giving that up. And as I say, Belizel Smotryk, one of his cabinet ministers, says that's his condition for not bringing the government down, not giving.

taking his MPs, his members of the Knesset out of the government. So, you know, it's not straightforward. There are, you know, there are two hurdles. There's the end of the first phase at the end of the second phase of which this deal could easily collapse.

And as I say, there's no guarantee because the third phase is still subject to negotiation. There are still negotiations about what happens after, what reconstruction is allowed in Gaza and who gets to run it. Now, of course,

The key thing for Israel is that Hamas should not get to run that reconstruction. But, you know, Hamas is still there. They still have fighters there. They still have leaders there. So they will, of course, want to be involved. And, you know, that won't be acceptable to Israel. So that long-term impasse also remains to be settled. And in six weeks' time, when we're about to be entering that next phase of this ceasefire, it'll be the start of March.

And, of course, Donald Trump will be settled into the Oval Office by then. Obviously, his sort of spectre has hung over this deal and he said it's down to him that it has come now, just days before he takes office again. Has Trump actually been the difference in pressuring Israel and Netanyahu to get this deal?

And will that have an impact on how Israel negotiates to extend this ceasefire or not? That's the way it's been spun in Washington. It's not the way I see things. It seems to me much more likely that Netanyahu was under a lot of pressure to bring the remaining hostages home, which he had not managed to do by military means.

It suited him to do a deal now. He has, you know, this is, if you like, a sort of welcome gift to Trump, who did make that threat saying, you know, I want a deal done before I start office, which he's getting on Sunday. Trump is inaugurated on Monday, which

And in return for that, I think Netanyahu will expect a certain amount of tolerance from Trump. And he's likely to get it. He's got very pro-Israel envoys. If Netanyahu goes back to war, he will expect Trump to support him. And I think Trump probably will. Richard Spencer from The Times, thank you very much for joining us. That is it from us. Thank you for taking 10 minutes to stay on top of the world with the help of The Times. We'll see you tomorrow. ♪

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