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cover of episode Pentagon official's exit raises US-Ukraine questions

Pentagon official's exit raises US-Ukraine questions

2025/1/13
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Alex Dibble 和 Toby Gillis:Laura Cooper的辞职表明特朗普政府对乌克兰政策存在不确定性和潜在的不满。这可能预示着特朗普计划中对乌克兰采取不利的措施。 Michael Evans:Laura Cooper是五角大楼俄罗斯、乌克兰和欧亚事务部门的负责人,在过去十年中发挥着关键作用。她的离职时机至关重要,因为它发生在特朗普即将上任之际,这将影响特朗普政府对乌克兰问题的处理方式。Cooper作为一名职业文职人员,她的离职与政治任命官员的离职不同,它会影响政府的连续性和稳定性。 Michael Evans:特朗普上任后,许多五角大楼和国务院官员离职,部分原因是他们不愿参与特朗普政府。新政府对现有的文职人员能力和经验不满意,希望用忠于自己的人取代他们。特朗普要求对他的效忠而非对宪法的效忠,这改变了美国政府的权力平衡。五角大楼的文职人员担心特朗普政府上任后会进行清洗,许多人可能会失去工作。 Michael Evans:大量五角大楼文职人员离职会减缓国防部的日常工作,而政治任命的官员的任命也面临延迟,这将对国防部造成负面影响。与第一次特朗普政府相比,拜登和特朗普政府之间的过渡相对顺利。 Alex Dibble 和 Toby Gillis:特朗普可能会试图通过停止对乌克兰的军事援助并达成一项让步土地的协议来结束战争。 Michael Evans:特朗普想要结束战争,停止对乌克兰的军事援助,并达成一项协议,但代价可能是乌克兰需要向莫斯科交出土地。凯斯·凯洛格将军将负责寻找一项结束战争的方案,该方案不会看起来像普京的胜利。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why is Laura Cooper's resignation from the Pentagon significant for US-Ukraine relations?

Laura Cooper's resignation is significant because she was a key figure in coordinating the US's multi-billion dollar military aid package for Ukraine following Russia's invasion. Her departure raises concerns about the future of US support for Ukraine, especially given President-elect Donald Trump's campaign pledge to end the war quickly. Her exit may signal a shift in US policy towards Ukraine, potentially reducing military aid or seeking a negotiated settlement that could involve territorial concessions.

What role did Laura Cooper play at the Pentagon?

Laura Cooper was in charge of the Russia, Ukraine, and Eurasia department at the Pentagon. She played a vital role in shaping US policy towards Ukraine, particularly in coordinating military aid. With over 24 years of experience, she was a career civil servant, not a political appointee, making her departure particularly notable as it reflects a loss of institutional knowledge and continuity.

How does Laura Cooper's departure reflect broader trends in the Trump administration's approach to civil servants?

Laura Cooper's departure is part of a broader trend where the Trump administration has expressed dissatisfaction with career civil servants, demanding loyalty to the president rather than the Constitution. This has led to fears of a purge within the Pentagon and other agencies, as the administration seeks to replace experienced officials with loyalists. Such a shift could disrupt the functioning of key departments, especially during a critical transition period.

What impact could a purge of Pentagon civil servants have on US defense operations?

A purge of Pentagon civil servants could significantly disrupt US defense operations, particularly during a time of global crises. The departure of experienced officials, combined with delays in confirming political appointees, could leave key positions vacant for extended periods. This would slow decision-making and reduce the Pentagon's ability to respond effectively to emerging threats, undermining national security.

What is Donald Trump's likely approach to ending the war in Ukraine?

Donald Trump has indicated a desire to end the war in Ukraine quickly, focusing on stopping the fighting and reducing US military aid. His approach may involve negotiating a deal that includes territorial concessions to Russia, which would be seen as a betrayal by Ukraine. Trump's special envoy to Ukraine, Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg, is expected to play a key role in finding a formula that avoids a clear victory for Russia while addressing Trump's priorities.

Chapters
Laura Cooper, a key figure in US military aid to Ukraine, resigned from the Pentagon. This event is seen as potentially signaling uncertainty and discontent regarding Trump's plans for Ukraine. Her departure raises concerns for Ukraine and highlights the timing's significance.
  • Laura Cooper's resignation from the Pentagon.
  • Her key role in US military aid to Ukraine.
  • Link between her resignation and Trump's campaign pledge to end the war.
  • Concerns raised regarding Trump's potential plans for Ukraine.

Shownotes Transcript

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See why 70,000 teams and 30 million people trust Grammarly at Grammarly.com slash enterprise. That's Grammarly.com slash enterprise. Grammarly, enterprise-ready AI. Welcome to The World in 10. In an increasingly uncertain world, this is The Times' daily podcast dedicated to global security. Today with me, Alex Dibble and Toby Gillis. With just a week to go until Donald Trump returns to the White House,

The handover of power is close to completion across all areas of policy. Yet the resignation of a top apolitical Pentagon official is being seen as a signal of uncertainty and perhaps discontent.

It might also give us some insight into Mr Trump's plan for Ukraine. And if you're Volodymyr Zelensky, it won't be a welcome one. Laura Cooper was one of the key figures in putting together the US's multi-billion dollar military aid package for Ukraine when the invasion began.

Her resignation is being linked to the President-elect's campaign pledge to end the war as soon as he retakes office. She had worked in the Pentagon since 2001. The Times' Pentagon analyst and former defence editor Michael Evans is our guest today. Michael, how significant is this story? What does it symbolise? And what will Laura Cooper, after 24 years in the Pentagon, do now?

She's a super smart lady. She's in charge of the Russia, Ukraine and Eurasia department. She plays a pretty vital part in what is going on or what has been going on in the Pentagon for the last decade.

three years. The Pentagon are saying now that she's not departed the Department of Defense, but that she's voluntarily left. I rather like that, to take up this new post of instructor at the National War College, which is in Washington. Very prestigious college, and she will play a big role there. What is not clear is how long she will stay there

and whether she will come back to the Pentagon in the future. But the key point is the timing. Here we are, and one of the key players in the Pentagon concerned with Ukraine is

which is a big issue for Trump, is not going to be in the Pentagon in her usual role, but is going to be well away from the Pentagon. So I think the timing is what's important. We'll see how that affects how the Trump administration deals with Ukraine. Michael, a lot of roles at the top of US government agencies are political appointees.

How does she differ? Because she wasn't put in position by a president, was she? No. I mean, the normal procedure for when there's a transfer of administration is that all the political appointees go and they're replaced by the new ones from the new administration. But of course, the civil service are career officers, career men and women. And of course, they generally like to stay behind, if not

for their own jobs, but to maintain continuity, if you like, between one administration and the other. So she is a key career officer at the Pentagon. She was formerly at the State Department. These sort of people are vital for keeping the whole machine running, if you like, while the transition takes over. Because remember, a lot of these, particularly with Donald Trump, a lot of these political appointees

don't have Pentagon backgrounds at all. Some of them are businessmen, which is OK. But obviously, the experience of the Pentagon is crucial for keeping everything going smoothly as one president leaves and one president takes over. And Michael, will Laura Cooper be alone in leaving now? Or do you anticipate others will follow suit?

Well, judging by what happened in 2016 and 2017 when Trump took over, a lot of people left the Pentagon and the State Department and other agencies. Many of them left because they didn't want to play a role in the Trump administration for their own personal reasons.

But then, and also particularly now, the new incoming administration has made it quite clear that they're not satisfied with a lot of the civil service capabilities and experience, if you like. And they want to get them replaced with people whom they can rely on for their loyalty. This is something which the Trump administration or Trump himself has said repeatedly.

many times that he wants loyalty. Well, of course, the whole process in the United States is that you are loyal as a career civil servant to the Constitution. The military are loyal to the Constitution. This is something which is often emphasized, but now seems to be

rather changing its balance, if you like, because Trump is demanding fealty to him and not necessarily to the Constitution. So I think, and a lot of people have been getting phone calls from the transition team in the Pentagon, a lot of civil servants I'm referring to, telling them that their jobs are on the line and that

Those that I've spoken to inside the Pentagon are saying they are expecting a purge and that a lot of them will lose their jobs. And there's a lot of fearfulness, if you like, in the Pentagon about what's going to happen in the first few weeks or months of the Trump administration. If a lot of Pentagon civil servants leave, or I suppose there's a purge, depending on how you see things,

Either way, what impact would that have, do you think? Wouldn't a lot of exits slow down the daily process of the Defense Department? If that happens, obviously that is bad news for the Pentagon and for the way it's run. But it also happens at the same time as political nominees who require Senate confirmation, not all of them do, but a lot of them do,

already being delayed by a lot. I mean, they don't even have a defence secretary who's been confirmed yet. Pete Hexeth still going through the process and who knows what will happen. So you're going to have a big gap between

When you've got people departing, career civil servants departing because they no longer are rated, if you like, by the Trump administration or they want to leave anyway. And then you'll have the political nominees who require Senate confirmation waiting to come in. So you're going to have a lot of people's jobs vacant for a long period of time during a transition, particularly now when we've got so many crises in the world. This is not good news.

You mentioned the transition there. Is this uncertainty a sign of things more generally? How would you say the transition between the Biden and Trump administrations is going at this stage? I think, you know, amazingly, certainly after the experience of the first Trump administration, when the transition period was highly volatile, to say the least,

And this time, I think it's going ahead pretty smoothly. I mean, I think Biden made it quite clear that the transition would go ahead without any problems. And I think it has gone ahead well. Some pretty controversial figures have been involved in joining Trump's administration. And I think everyone thought,

there would be some fireworks. But actually, even with the most controversial, it seems to have gone ahead pretty smoothly. And all the transition programme seems to be going ahead reasonably well and should be well completed by the inauguration day on January the 20th. And just finally, clearly Laura Cooper's exit is a blow to Ukraine.

We don't know at the moment whether Donald Trump is still working on his pledge to end the war on day one or whether he's now on the 100-day timeline that we were covering on The World in 10 last week. But whatever he's planning, what do you think he will do? How do you think he will try and end the war? I mean, it is quite difficult. We've had enough

indications from Trump himself what he wants to do. He hasn't spelt it out in so many words, but I mean, he basically wants to end the war as soon as he can. He wants to stop the fighting and stop the deaths and destruction, which is obviously a positive stand to take. But he also wants to stop

the billions of dollars of taxpayers' money which are being spent on sending arms to Ukraine, which may help Ukraine to defend against Russia, but it obviously also helps to continue the war. So I think he wants to do two things, those two things. And then somehow, in between, he wants a deal which will give at least something to the Kiev government,

but it inevitably means a handover of land to Moscow, which, of course, Ukraine has been fighting against for the last nearly three years. And it will be seen as a betrayal, if you like. So I think it's a very, very tricky formula to find. But Trump seems to be determined to do it. And he's got this special envoy to Ukraine, Lieutenant General.

General Keith Kellogg, who I think he was due to go to Kiev, actually, I think this week or next week, but I think has been postponed until after Trump takes over. But he will be responsible for trying to find this formula, which will not end up looking like a Putin victory, which is what everyone wants to avoid, including, I hope, Trump himself.

OK, Michael Evans, The Times' Pentagon analyst, thank you for joining us. And thank you for taking ten minutes to stay on top of the world with the help of The Times. We'll see you tomorrow.

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