Trump and Zelensky’s mineral deal - why Russia doesn’t care
10:17 Share

This episode is sponsored by Womble Bond Dickinson, an international law firm of more than 1,300 lawyers across 37 offices in the United States and United Kingdom. In today's complex world, new problems need new perspectives. Womble Bond Dickinson thrives on change, bringing together people with different skill sets and experiences to give their clients a competitive edge.

Across a range of markets, they support businesses and private clients on critical challenges, from energy transition, digital transformation, and cross-border investment, to corporate finance, dispute resolution, and personal wealth planning. All with a mix of minds you won't find anywhere else. Womble Bond Dickinson. A point of view like no other. Discover more at WombleBondDickinson.com.

Long gone are the days of waiting to be seen in a doctor's office only to have that awkward conversation with your health care provider. WISP gives you access to sexual and reproductive health care from the comfort of your home. Get treatment for BV, yeast infections, UTIs, and much more delivered directly to your home or ready for pickup at your local pharmacy in less than three hours. The best part? WISP is discreet, convenient, and you don't need medical insurance to receive care or prescription medication. Visit us today at hellowisp.com.

Welcome to The World in 10. In an increasingly uncertain world, this is The Times' daily podcast dedicated to global security. Today with me, Alex Dibble and Tom Noonan. As Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky visits Donald Trump at the White House to sign their minerals deal, there's still no sign – at the time we record this at least – of a cast-iron US security guarantee for Ukraine in the future –

That's despite the French President Emmanuel Macron and the UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer pushing for it during their own visits earlier this week.

So as attempt number three is made by Zelensky, how is Russia looking at this parade of European visitors to Washington? And will Vladimir Putin be more or less concerned than he was before? Our guest today is Mark Gagliotti, a Russia specialist and the director of MIAC Intelligence. Mark, let's start with this minerals deal, which Donald Trump is talking up. How big a deal is it for the Russians? And are they worried?

Well, it's actually a pretty wishy-washy document. It doesn't really commit anyone to much. In some ways, he is framing it as a kind of alternative form of security guarantee in that if all these various kind of rare earths and similar deposits are going to be exploited, and there's a huge debate actually about quite how great a value they have.

And at the moment, a lot of them are not being exploited because it's going to require technology. It's going to require investment. And that's presumably it's going to require American companies to be involved on the ground to actually do that. And so there is the idea that, you know, you may well not have peacekeepers, but if you have American interests there, that will be a deterrence for Putin.

Maybe, maybe not. But on the other hand, from the Ukrainians' point of view, it really is nothing like the kind of security that they feel they need. Let me put it this way. The Kremlin certainly does not seem bothered by this deal, which implies that they do see through it. So, I mean, I think this is a kind of a deal which is something that Trump can hype. But when it comes down to it, this is not the deal. This is not something that really he can feel comfortable

That's it. Honor is satisfied. I have sorted things out in Ukraine. And if he is seriously thinking about wanting to get a Nobel Peace Prize, which does appear to be part of the calculation, this is not going to cut it.

And while this mineral deal is ostensibly what it's all about today, the undercurrent of all this and all these visits is this question of what security guarantees will Ukraine get in the event of a ceasefire. Obviously, there's lots of talk about a European peacekeeping force. And I think Donald Trump said when Macron visited that Putin has no problem with the idea. The Kremlin pretty quickly said after that, no, it's still unacceptable. And they've since called it empty talk.

What do you think the Kremlin is actually thinking about the idea of peacekeepers? And I suppose the fact that both Macron and Starmer seem to have come away with nothing on security guarantees. Well, again, looking at the current feedback we're actually getting from Russian official sources, I mean, obviously they are happy about that. Although, again...

If there was a European presence, would the Americans totally abandon them in that particular crunch moment? Probably not, which is precisely why Putin doesn't want European troops to be in Ukraine. So in other words, to kind of forestall that whole issue. The Russian style of negotiation tends to be very hardball.

very much even when they're actually thinking of potential concessions, until the absolute 11th hour and 59th minute, they'll be saying how totally unacceptable it is, precisely because they want to extract the best possible reciprocal concessions for that. So it's hard to be sure, but it may well come down to a very stark choice for Putin, that if he wants to end this war,

in a way that already looks fairly satisfactory for him, being in control of almost a fifth of Ukraine, and if he wants to end it before 2026, when probably a lot of the sort of long-forstalled problems will really start to come home for Russia.

then it may be that he'll have to accept that. But certainly at the moment, that's not their preferred option. They would rather, frankly, Ukraine, which is continually vulnerable. And therefore, if they can keep European troops out or else at least keep the troops that are there not to be from the main military countries of Europe,

Europe, you know, they may well be perfectly comfortable seeing my apologies to these countries that I'm going to mention, but say Greek, Danish and Slovak peacekeepers there, so long as they don't have to think about there being British and French and maybe German and Polish forces, then there may be some kind of room. So this is a very long way of saying we don't really know. But I think there's still quite a few different sort of options around this whole possibility.

Mark, even if there's no hard and fast details about security going forward, this has been a big public show of the transatlantic alliance, all these European big hitters, Emmanuel Macron, Sakhir Starmer in the Oval Office. Is that a problem for Russia? I mean, obviously, they approach this with some concern, and particularly the initial Macron visit.

because Macron is, in his own way, quite able to actually be charismatic and persuasive on a one-to-one level and certainly has a decent track record of working with Donald Trump. Now, given that it was essentially unsuccessful, whereas sort of Sakhir had two objectives and kind of achieved one,

Macron ultimately got kind words and a glad handing, but actually nothing achieved. And that's very much something that the Russians are fully aware of. And so in some ways, I think that they're breathing a sigh of relief because sure, Zelensky is going to be there and Zelensky can be very compelling. But on the other hand, there is so much bad blood there now.

And other European leaders are in due course going to be in there. But I think from the Russians point of view, if Macron couldn't actually start to move the dial in some measurable way, then three more European leaders are not going to make a difference.

And how's Russia reacting to what European leaders are saying about stepping up on defence? I mean, Zakir Starmer has accelerated the timeline for the UK, hitting 2.5% of GDP on defence spending, which was pretty nakedly an attempt to appeal to Donald Trump before his visit. The man who's set to become Germany's next chancellor also says he wants to increase defence spending. Surely this is all just going in the opposite direction to what Vladimir Putin actually wants?

Yes, and it's one of the many ways that this war actually has proven to be really quite catastrophic for Putin in the sort of wider terms. I mean, his country is increasingly getting economically scarred by the cost of maintaining a war economy. It's increasingly dependent upon Beijing. Its labor market is absolutely sort of at full capacity. And yes, he sees Europe and indeed NATO generally becoming more and more sort of security focused than ever.

On the other hand, look, let's be clear. I mean, two to two and a half, even to 3%. You know, we're still talking about relatively small figures, which are going to take years to actually play out on the ground.

Though for all this talk about moving to a war economy or whatever, no one in Europe is even tiptoeing close to that. I mean, the Poles and the Bolts are the closest, really, but even they are not getting into that status. So I think from the Kremlin's point of view, yes. But if you had to decide between a 2%, shall we say, NATO with full American backing,

or a European NATO, which is spending 3% on defense, but which no longer feels it can actually trust Washington to back it up. Frankly, I think the latter is still something that the Russians would find more appealing.

Has this week changed at all how the Kremlin views Donald Trump? Because there are still all the ceasefire talks going on and talks on things outside of the Ukraine issue to come, of course. What's the Russian attitude therefore going into all of those?

Well, look, I think it's fair to say that the Kremlin is still treating Trump with some caution. They are absolutely delighted that there is now contact between Russia and the United States. We've already had, for example, this week, closed door conversations in Istanbul between experts to actually turn the kind of grand declaratory statements into real action on the ground.

They're obviously very pleased not only by the fact that Trump says such nice things about Putin, but that he is causing such discord and dismay within the Western alliance. But for all that, there is still quite a distinct note of caution in Russian official pronouncements, especially when it comes to Ukraine. You know, Putin himself has more or less been saying, look, let's not get ahead of ourselves. Let's not assume that suddenly everything is going to be wonderful. So they appreciate that with Trump,

What you see today may not be what you get tomorrow. So yes, they're very happy, but there is still that cautious sense that they'll believe that things will work out their way when it actually happens.

Mark Gagliotti, the director of MIAC Intelligence, thank you very much for joining us. Now this minerals deal, which Mark has called wishy-washy just there, that's obviously the heart of Volodymyr Zelensky's visit to the White House. If you head back to Wednesday's episode, you can hear us speaking to The Times' assistant editor in the US, David Charter, who explained what's actually in the deal, and I suppose more importantly, what's not in the deal. So do go back and have a listen to that.

That is it from us today, though. Thank you for taking 10 minutes to stay on top of the world with the help of The Times. We'll see you tomorrow.

This episode is sponsored by Womble Bond Dickinson, an international law firm of more than 1,300 lawyers across 37 offices in the United States and United Kingdom. In today's complex world, new problems need new perspectives. Womble Bond Dickinson thrives on change, bringing together people with different skill sets and experiences to give their clients a competitive edge.

Across a range of markets, they support businesses and private clients on critical challenges, from energy transition, digital transformation, and cross-border investment, to corporate finance, dispute resolution, and personal wealth planning. All with a mix of minds you won't find anywhere else. Womblebong Dickinson. A point of view like no other.

Discover more at WombleBoneDickinson.com. Oh my God, it's the coolest thing ever. Hey guys, have you heard of Gold Belly? Well, check this out. It's this amazing site where they ship the most iconic, famous foods from restaurants across the country anywhere nationwide. I've never found a more perfect gift than food. They ship Chicago deep dish pizza, New York bagels, Maine lobster rolls, and even Ina Garten's famous cakes. Seriously.

So if you're looking for a gift for the food lover in your life, head to goldbelly.com and get 20% off your first order with promo code GIFT.