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Welcome to The World in 10. In an increasingly uncertain world, this is The Times' daily podcast dedicated to global security. Today with me, Alex Dibble and Stuart Willey. After months of negotiations and many bumps in the road, including the now notorious bust-up in the Oval Office, Kiev and Washington have signed a deal to share the profits from Ukraine's natural resources. And it sparked hope for Ukrainians, now feeling more confident they may have the long-term support of Donald Trump,
And hours after the signing, evidence of that support in Trump's sign-off of $50 million of military supplies, the first such approval since he took office. To talk us through how the deal is being seen with us today is Arisia Lutzevich, head of the Ukraine Forum at the think tank Chatham House. Arisia, this long-awaited deal has now been signed. While we might not have all the details yet, what is your take on it?
I think it's a win-win deal. I think it's in the spirit of making it kind of profitable, both for Ukrainian and American people. And indeed, you know, Ukraine is a large economy. It has rich natural resources. People more know about Ukrainian rich soil, but Ukraine has these minerals because it also has a rich mining history going back to the 19th century.
So there is something on offer. And it's a win also for Ukraine because indeed it needs to rebuild. It needs investments. It needs technology and not just pure extractive industry where
these minerals will be exported. Ukraine wants to create added value. And that is why in a modern supply chain, it hopes that jointly with American companies, it can be a reliable source of critical minerals for the industries of the future.
Looking at the drafts going around, Arisia, it seems there are no concrete security guarantees, but also no requirement to pay back the US for earlier military assistance, plus adding oil and gas as well as rare earths. Will Volodymyr Zelensky be a happy man looking at this deal today?
I think it's interesting if you follow the journey of this agreement all the way from Munich Security Conference, when there was a first attempt by the American, the vice president, J.D. Vance, to kind of force Ukraine quickly to sign the deal.
And Ukraine basically said, no, this version of the deal is not acceptable. Let our teams work on improving it. It was a bitter pill. And I think in a way it was the revenge we saw in the White House of that disrespectful attitude to President Zelensky that shocked the world.
But I think Ukraine, in a way, swallowed the bitter pill and understood that it has to do everything possible to keep America interested and involved. And they worked together smartly, I think, using international law firms, New York-based law firms that helped improve the deal. And it kind of removed the most toxic points in it, one being U.S. having a majority shareholder control, 50-plus. Right now it's 50-50.
governance structure. Second is that Ukraine will, that they will use this investment fund as a payback of the old debts for military assistance. And the third, that it will not be in contradiction with Ukraine's European integration pathway, because one way or the other, Ukraine aims to become a member of the single European market. But on security, there's an interesting clause which
that the contributions of the parties to this investment reconstruction fund could be in military assistance. So if U.S. will provide military assistance to Ukraine, this will not be a free gift, but this amount will be accounted for as U.S. contribution to this investment fund. And this is kind of a pathway to keep Ukraine
American military assistance flowing into Ukraine and perhaps the beginning of the new arrangement for how Ukraine can purchase American weapons. And it's maybe not a coincidence that today we are seeing the first move to actually allow export of weapons to Ukraine for 50 million. It's a small amount, but it happens right after the deal was signed.
We've also seen since the deal was signed a return to tougher language from America, including describing the war as Russia's full scale invasion. Do you think Kiev should be heartened by that change of tone from the White House? Well, it clearly is a bit of a, you know, soothing remedy after all the scarring that U.S. has done just in the first hundred days of Trump.
voting with Russia and North Korea on UN declarations, calling Zelensky a dictator, humiliating him in public. Actually, trust to Trump has collapsed in Ukraine. At the beginning of his presidency, there was hope
that he will be a strong president, that he will try to enforce some rules-based order. But that is not the case anymore. So fundamentally, Ukrainians understand that Trump is unstable, that his team has different centers of influence around him, and that maybe...
In his ideology and worldview, he is more similar to Putin where, you know, when he threatens Canada or he threatens Greenland, he believes that big countries can solve their security problems at the expense of smaller countries or weaker countries.
And that is very dangerous if that is indeed how Trump will pursue in practice approach to the world affairs. But I think right now, I think it's a bit of a tug of war for America between Ukraine and Europe and Russia. And it is not clear yet fully we are in the midst of it, which side will win. One man involved in that tug of war is the Russian President Vladimir Putin. How do you think he'll be looking at this agreement?
I don't think he's much to his pleasing because they are trying to lure Americans with their own economic deals. And it's no surprise that the head of the National Wealth Fund, Kirill Dmitriev, is leading on that track with Vitkov. They've asked large Russian companies to each submit a very lucrative offer to Americans on extraction of natural resources, trade, especially in the energy field.
I think that's what he fundamentally wants. He wants to fight war in Ukraine and do business with America. And here's the question whether Trump will pursue that pathway or not, whether he will blame Ukraine and Europe for walking away from his peace initiative and say we have, you know, to reset geopolitical cooperation with Russia. And even if it's at the expense of Ukraine, that's OK.
But I think Putin is not very pleased that there is still an American-Ukrainian relation that is now especially underpinned by this agreement. He wanted Trump to give Ukraine to him as his sphere of influence.
which is good news that the presence of American companies in Ukraine will signify that Ukraine as an independent nation can decide who it does business with. Arisia, clearly this is a deal over natural resources. It is not a ceasefire deal, not a peace deal. But does it perhaps change how the negotiations for a ceasefire or indeed for a lasting peace work?
I see this deal as a confidence to trust building measures between Ukraine and America. And this is what Ukraine needs. Ukraine needs to win the trust of Trump to convince that it could be kind of, it could strengthen America, right? That it's not America is doing some charity, that it's not at the expense of America's national interest or geopolitical vision. And I think that's what Ukraine needs.
So that clearly will help. It's like a building block for further peace talks. But it might end up just being that. We don't know yet whether the whole peace agreement will mature. We so far don't even have a ceasefire. Putin has announced unilaterally a ceasefire for the World War II celebrations that, you know, because he'll receive a lot of
global South and other leaders. So he wants to show off his...
goodwill, I guess, to that. But the situation remains very fragile and it can still go either way. Arisia, thank you. That is Arisia Lutzevich, Deputy Director of the Russia and Eurasia Program at Chatham House. As Donald Trump signs off his first $50 million shipment of military equipment, you can hear more about the key US-built missile system that's proven crucial in Ukraine's fight.
Listen back to our episode on March the 24th. It was called Ukraine's Scramble for US Patriot Missiles. That's it from us. Thank you for taking 10 minutes to stay on top of the world with the help of The Times. We'll see you tomorrow. Take control of the numbers and supercharge your small business with Xero. That's X-E-R-O.
With our easy-to-use accounting software with automation and reporting features, you'll spend less time on manual tasks and more time understanding how your business is doing. 87% of surveyed U.S. customers agree Xero helps improve financial visibility. Search Xero with an X or visit xero.com slash ACAST to start your 30-day free trial. Conditions apply.
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