#321: Thanksgiving Discussion
47:52 Share

Let me tell you something, the big secret of really cool people in urban centers who dress cool or awesome and different. They can afford these cars.

of course they can, but when you still use them, but they make they pay for their awesome outfits by leveraging their cool to sell things to rich people who aren't cool. 四川队 看着 没有 味。

Hello and welcome to the atomic cast. I'm a neter mir. I am the author of ludicrous, unvarnished story of .

tesla motors boy y and I have explained the founder, a cofounder and general partner at new industry of venture capital and I VC and the founder of the human driving association. What can I plug? One more thing i'm going to do that anyway.

Go out of Johnson and roy. Godfather, narrow to command. You want IT. You know where to reach me?

I can't believe you're holding on to the founder of the human driving association .

still but what .

coming coming back it's coming back OK Alice founder founder of so many contradictions should be actual title and i'm cars in cars like transportation editor at tech runge and about to be making alex super jealous about what I did and you didn't get to do this.

Uh, what is IT? okay? What doesn't .

have anything to do with human driving? So I don't know if you're interested in in IT.

did you drive across country in an anton's vehicle .

driverless? No but um you may have been following because I know you do because you live in photo x, which is in the way more robot taxes have been going to the airport. But they have to take service states, which isn't the best is all about for their in my view, unlocking their business model really is when they start going on freeways.

So I had an opportunity when I reached out and I drove up, spend a bit of time in the afternoon doing a driverless st ride on freeways with two engineers who have actually been working on the product and according to them. But who knows, i'm one of the first. So I don't know if that means one hundred other people or one only one non employees to be able to do this and didn't get a lot of information about when they're to launch this except it's gonna be in twenty, twenty five. So I would anticipate me i'm going to say first quarter, that's my prediction.

I can I in my own voice predict what is gonna that should make the tesla fan boys who say emos not legitimate because they don't do highway rides? Absolutely case IT. Oh yeah.

So just like that, I feel like .

I don't even need to add anything now you need to add .

the the shrill bitty equality to that.

Can we wait how faster to .

go sixty five? And so um a interesting thing in a discussion I had with the two engineers are in the vehicle um with me one is a project lead and one actually came from the the trucking program within way mo and is the uh chief engineer on the freeways of where I guess um element I don't know that an official title but basically that really does and I asked him after the ride. So it's about forty forty minutes, forty five minutes.

We went on and off the freeway multiple times to like sort of continue to link IT up because obviously of the navigation will bring on the surface streets unless you kind of pick up around that makes sense to go to three ways. And IT was pinned at sixty five. So it's happy to report that had never gotten the left lane or like choked of traffic or anything like that.

But I said, listen, like if you guys want to do this in L. A. Or even in phoenix, what about just keeping up with the rate of traffic? And often times, I mean, anyone who has driven around L A, there is like fifty five miles sections of that freeway. No one is driving fifty five miles hour. If you are driving the speed limit, you are actually impeding traffic. And I don't know if I agree with the answer, but I appreciate the answer which was like, listen, just because everyone's breaking the rules, that doesn't mean we should break the rules um so to be clear, the vehicle isn't governed like governor IT can physically go faster than the billiam IT but IT won't unless there are some sort of safety need to do so yeah .

you know it's funny. The very first AV rata ever took was was with non and IT was very clearly a very short demolition. But the one thing I did was merged onto a freeway, which I thought at the time was was my first ride.

So I was like, twenty sixteen, and I was pretty impressive. But I kind of just realize the other day I was I was remembering this and I was like, it's actually something I haven't done sint, I haven't been in an A V that emerges onto a freeway sort of. It's not the hardest thing in the world at all, you know there they're doing much more distance ult things now. But it's just interesting that that that isn't something you you get to do much.

What's sitting at least in living in sky stale, I came back from financial report last night, took a way more is that even if I could do, uh, when IT does highway because of how Scott deals laid out, it's actually the same mean of time to get to my house from on surface streets versus highway. But you know, for our our areas, you obviously what highway yeah.

if you're coming from masa to get to the airport, like you don't want have to take surface streets to get there, you know you want to be able to jump on the freeway and get there. So to me, I think that makes what first of all gives them more choice. And so then IT becomes much more compelling for the the writer to be like, oh, this forty five minute drive will now be thirty, because IT can physically go on the three ways. And so IT just makes more sense for me to take IT. And it's much more competitive as a resolve.

But I gotto tell you merely funny. And I got, I need to leave you for forty five seconds. Tesla roadside service or mobile service is in front of my place fixing my tesla right now. So I ear text broken again.

Wow, that's shocking.

Go take a so surprising you unreliable who who could have imagined.

yeah, the way to suck IT. But they came to my house, they fixed IT, and he took fifteen minutes and and I really had to talk them. I was touch less. They went, they showed up outside and they did IT.

and now they're gone. Okay, we still here about cars. They don't have rampant with the best of eon mask says the best repair is no repair well and they're gone.

And I was free. I love IT. It's all done. That's amazing.

I how many repairs how many repair?

Rs are we have.

by the way, too wise that .

is not OK OK oh so to be clear OK ah that I picked IT up the acid in work and then I I brought you back out a model x loner and then I drove away and then I brought you back and then they said he was fixed. Then IT wasn't. So two visits to the shop for the ac that was resolved. And then this is a third incidents, totally separate .

and is a brand new vehicle, right?

Let let the record reflect. I just winds in pain.

Okay, yes. And yes. And yet there is also a very apparently on diagnosable.

Pair of some just so you wanted, just you wanna hear is a sound from the .

b pillar and a sound from the c pillar on the right side. The people person goes away when someone sitting in the best you see, which is incredible. So i've been looking .

for that test .

less hunted the sea pillers got a sound, can't can't diagnose IT and then the right side door of a new thing um which is the ah the speaker a buzzes and certain frequencies if you listen to the jaco podcast you know joko, the actually native seal, i'm not endorsing joo, but if you like comedy and military history jocose the guy, he is a very deep voice, talks like this. And when he's on the right side door, not got a bus so now we have some adventures SHE I my tesla but so see.

you've got gremlins in the tesla. Sounds good. I do want to mention two other kind of interesting things about the way all right before we move on. One was I was at the depot because that's where I met them and I got a chance to see one of the zek's wrapped, and which was interesting.

So last time we saw the eager, if you remember, I was like around, like blue light and like a smoke machine at the, at some club in L. A, during L. A.

To show. I think that was two years ago, wo and we were all there. So there making some iterations to IT.

IT was fully rabs, so you didn't really see IT. That structure looks about the same interior. There is a steering well on IT because they're driving at around and autonomously, I believe, but with the human driver. But they are really working out like also the next generation of hardware, which is the interesting part. They are combining some things, so technically fewer sensors, but you know, they say greater capability and which, which I thought was interesting.

And then the other thing I never knew, and i'm expLoring IT a little bit, was I noticed that when the way moves were charging because are charging in the that they don't turn off, the light are still spinning and everything. And I ask him about that and in my question, of course, was like, doesn't this to great the battery faster? And the answer I received, i'm getting more information about IT, was actually, yeah, they discovered that and they worked to A J, L, R.

And did some sort of internal tweet. I don't know on the software side or whatever to allow them to do that without degrading the battery. And the reason for this is so that the up time, you apparently the leg two seconds to turn off and on, you know, matters, I don't know. So anyway, these are like my boots on the ground. This is what I saw my little waye field trip.

you know writing in these eye places which are fantastic. Um I hate to bring the site .

and they're coffee.

they're clean that works. I have a great experiencing is anyone what so low i've .

said in those and been so cramped they need to be bigger vehicle I mean the eye es are fine, but they definitely like it's not the cause yeah for sure. So I just want to comment a little bit about like I think that there is a lot of um attention on the incoming trump administration, the cabinet pigs uh and what is going to happen to the future of A V S and evs uh is specifically the evi tax credit and I think is a worthwhile I discussion to have. However, I would say like a lot of this is posturing and speculation, but I wanted get your opinion on what you think of the pic for transportations secretary former with consent rap 上 duffy， any anybody.

I mean, he's not exactly someone that that like someone who's name stood out in the space so far, right?

I mean, right. But like, aren't cain pics so often political like people to have had certainly as mayor, dealt with city services and things like that, but and had a name for himself because he had actually been you running for president himself. But it's not like he had some like a deep background and transportation and that's usually .

the parallel would be from the previous trip ministration while right, someone who again, like was not someone who was in in the automotive world, particularly I mean, you know, she'd been around politics, but like, you know, IT IT was he was not someone just put at this way not someone that that going in. You're like, oh yeah, I have a sense of what this person cares about in the remo of transportation specifically.

Like, is this person an infrastructure person? Is this person, you know, a car auto industry person, a tech person? What you know I mean, like there's no there's all these different stakeholders and transportation.

And i'd feel like with duffy, it's it's similar to shower. It's like I don't it's not clear sort of where where they are coming from now. Like how is is one bar of of what how is different, right?

Like, first of all, SHE SHE was also a secretary of labor under the bush administration. So, you know, I think that what's going to happen with the trump administration this go around is the two twenty sixteen IT felt very much like, oh, shit, we Better grab some people who like some who are true believers, but also some who have like just know how government works and um are somewhat reflective of our ideals.

This feels very different this time and much more organized. So to be really interesting this to see how that plays out. Um and also a lot of IT is rewards for being from playlist. So that's that's and the thing I would remind people like I of course, I had some people were like freaking out like a it's like often times these folks are only last a couple of years. They don't even last the entire they cycle out and in these rewards are short lived um and that happens in every presidency um but I did look at duff's legislative record just because I was curious to find and I really I looked um there is nothing related transportation with the exception of some stuff around logging trucks on roads and like this role was concerned um and like some railroad related but like very minor so to your point, IT is really hard to get a sense of like what is even a priority .

at all and and again, I mean the word the barb was set by and just you know and I know like driving animation of arcane and not not the number one you know focus for these folks but like a lain child did talk about the technology a lot but like couldn't like throughout our like I don't think there was a single point where where I was like, okay, he now knows what the level of automation are.

You know I mean like like that was IT was a consistent problem throughout her her her thing and and so so i'm gonna are so you know, one of the things that we're seeing in the news that sort of that apparently there's talk inside the transition team about a bit of focus on A V S. I've heard rumors about a policy document floating around somewhere. I'm curious where is coming from? Who is the trump world's AV the brains know because you you know .

who IT is that and IT is our favorite person who will keep you paying your rent for many years or your mortgage. Elon mask.

I see I I don't think elon musk is putting together A A policy document. I I am here I mean, maybe so so I think great sandlin cho, you know french fulton was sort .

of really the yeah I was to say was yeah .

so it's a question. He's is a web in firm right now so I went surprise me, maybe will have to to reach out to him and see if if he knows who what's going on here because clearly someone is is you know putting a VS on the agenda inside this transition team and and I don't really know who they are and and I don't really know, I think the the second question beyond who they are is what what are these policies, right? Because so what sort of filtering out into the into the public discourse is a little confusing specifically because the message seems to be, well, you know, we need to get rid of of the owners regulations that are keeping a base .

off the road. That's a confusing a bit yeah yes. So we have to back up a bit. So the story of thing that you're talking about is bourg bomberg. Thank you.

David wells, who has sources around um that within the transition team, there is interest in sort of accelerating forward autonomous vehicles. And and to be clear, because there's a lot of confusion about IT without bring tesla into IT at all. Right now, there isn't a federal framework at all around regulations around autonomous vehicles at state by state.

Some states like california IT would be considered and I would put IT in the highly regulated camp. But pretty, let me know, well outline or in other states, it's not as clear but a loud. And so we've gone through we've been on this podcast so long, you guys we've been talking about this for several administrations now.

So then the story and other subsequent stories, thanks to some analysts picked up on will certainly this means now that this is a win for tesla and I don't see IT that way. Um for a few reasons. One 他 they focused on the existing federal regulation around what cars need to have the F M V S S um regulation's like you have to have a sterling one peddles。 And there has been a lot debate about like autonomous people is getting those exemptions. But right now, let's be clear, tesla does not have a vehicle that Operates without string well and peddles. So I don't see what the accelerant here is.

Yeah that sort of the heart of the issue, right? Sorry, alex.

So my what I find ironically at all of this is that is not actually to test this benefit, that any regulations be changed that benefit away or anyone else anytime soon because then the the regulator or the regulator regulations as a barrier to fd deployment theatre is a little, the curtains are removed, and then there is no, there is nowhere for test let to hide why fsd is not deploy and driver ously is actually Better for tesla.

A that there is armani's ation sure. But that IT occur like right before. Tesla actually has true driverless capability to product size. Otherwise the any harmonization only benefits companies like wao who are actually have reality command, which is robot taxi drivers today.

Yeah, that's right. And so so I think it's it's fascine to see so yeah like reason magazine, which you know baby liberati and me went upon a time I I subscribed to this magazine and a rewriting this bloomberg thing and they are talking about there's a lying about less burden. Some regulations would could make IT easier for you on mask at to launch robot taxi.

And they said updating standard would allow more americans to revolve the benefits of. Boundaries pushing author is such is such such crap like if it's weird to me to see people pushing this, like we have to tear down, regulate bears when they literally don't exist like like until tesla unveiled the cyber cab which has no no human controls, the um there was no barrier like they and again, we talked about this for many years. They they could push self driving software to the model three, the model y the moto s model x cyber c all of those vehicles that are F, M, B S S compliant.

They could have push the software made himself driving. As alex says, this is completely just theater. The problem means that by rAiling against against, you know, regulations that don't exist, kind of sets up like a serial situation of, like what comes next.

like what you do well, like political theater, like one thing all says elon and others are very good at creating is very much like how magician works. It's the slide of hands. Distract and look at all this in the noise. And then i'm going to go and do this if you actually go back in the time eline of what elon as the CEO of tesler was promising. There is absolutely nothing standing in this way from doing that today which was for to turn everyone's personal model threads and model wise into an army of role taxes that will work for you. Um there's nothing stopping him today from doing that um in most states, right like obviously I do think that there would be some push backroom in california even if IT fits in this weird area um but in many states that could happen today there is nothing preventing IT in to be clear, there is no federal regulations that would prevent that and yet here we are once again. And I always predicted this, that I would somehow you at the mistake of all these regulations, not the actual technology that was going to getting the way .

of elan's dream well. And I will say, even to reasons credit, they do mention to the even even on F, M, B assets, right? Zooks is putting which back to amazon, is putting vehicles on the road that they've just completely self certified. Now there's an investigation with no human controls rises a robot purpose of robot taxi. No human controls, theyve said they're certified, were putting him on the road. This is investigating that and and to the credit reason puts out a march an analyst you know says like depending on how that goes, if if it's a signs off on that, if they investigate, they are like yourself certified this in and we're going to accept IT that creates a new defect or standard right now.

The like I think neo is one of the only companies that has a waive red for for an F M B S S free thing and and it's an ocean's vehicle and they agreeing to data sharing and and under the the the by administration I think was that the by administration preacher that this was like a pretty uh uh negotiated agreement if it's a signs off on the zoo s deployment and say yet yourself certified and and we're just gna let this happen. That creates a new president where even the one regulatory barrier that you can sort of say does exist that tesla chose to run into by creating a cyber cabin that is taking with the original plan. Even that may be something that that isn't actually really a barrier here. So it's like it's like grasp at straws to find some things somewhere in the federal rules that might somehow we can blame for for like not having actually deployed like actual authoritative. It's it's pathetic like it's like lario, symptomatic tic.

I mean, I think that you know it's the government's fault, clearly because they're overreach and you preventing, you know all of us being in autonomous vehicles. Uh, you know, I will say this and will play the what if game if tesla did indeed have a that what they showed a month ago and was fully functioning and had already tested millions of miles and both simulation and on the road and had gone through all the steps that many other companies like zoos s and we will have been doing and was ready to go.

Sure, they technically would have a problem unless they took the risk that zooks has done, which is self certifying and saying, we believe that this this meets the, we don't need to ask for an example. So if you play that, what if game? sure. And the thing that makes me laugh the most is that suddenly they're like we need to follow the rules because we need to change the rules because we're such role followers. Like since win, has tesla ever like asked permission?

They've just done IT little ally just classifying their systems as level two in order complete and run around this this clean.

The primary benefits a tesla of announcements or speculation around harmonization or changing or elimination of any regulations is to support narrative coming. Yeah because the yeah it's the site and IT was up six hundred and seven percent last week, right on the monday after the first rumors began swelling that regulations were going to change. So again, IT doesn't matter. What if they do what they don't as long as they do right before tesla candle driverless. But for now, the narrative command is strengthened by that even .

having this conversation right. And I think I think what I kind of one of the scenario I think is, is relatively more likely here. Is that like that that the trump D O T, they get someone in in, in A D O T.

And tesla, you know, gets to the point that ella musk talked about where it's like we have done x miles and we have this level of critical interventions, premier, which is total calvin ball, right? They can they they can decide where to drive those miles and what councils are critical intervention and what does that? It's complete like they can make IT up and and be whatever.

I can see us an area where the U S D O T, where is sort of similar to like what happened in, uh, twenty sixteenth end of the ohm d administration, where the duty put out the the the investigation of of josh Brown, uh crash and said, oh, tesla autopsies duced crashes by forty percent which turned to be bullshit and and spot decide a the bones but for a short amount of time I was an effective government rubber stamp on the safety of tesla's autopilot. I could see something simple to that happening here, where they have some event at the d ot. building.

They have the cyber cab, their secretary, transportation comes out and says, I approve this for public roads. IT passes our test even though no test is this, no framework is is nothing. It's just purely about theater and the narrative and a pumps at the stock. And and and IT creates this sort of slow march of like, oh, this is becoming a real thing, even though IT absolutely isn't like that. That to me is the kinda scenario i'm expecting in this in this administration.

Yeah what do you think is gonna en with the E V tax credit, which is which is also, uh, rumors have been sparling about what's gona happen at that. And you know I was able to confirm with some folks who work on the hill that like that is definitely something that is um you know on the chopping block and however, what IT was pointed out to me was certain things.

It's not as if this can be done with like an executive border um for one it's part the tax code and that makes IT immediately more complicated and nothing that like could happen. However, what could happen is the treasury department, which kind of set the guidelines um could make IT even harder to to meet or to be able to qualify for that seventy five hundred um E D tax credit, for instance, removing the leasing piece of IT or you know pushing the you know the percentage of components. But right now, it's actually kind of hard to to meet the qualifications around that E V tax credit and it's going to get harder because as laid out into the inflation reduction act, it's not just about final assembly, by the way.

It's about a percentage of components coming from you know U S or approved partners, h trade partners or um and also specifically around the battery. So um I think it's again another political theater moment. But IT is something that oh the G O P has wanted get IT up for a long time.

You but industry doesn't to get rid of that. That's the interesting thing that is, is like here you have this sort of this tension between like sort of culture war and a sort of trump ism vibes and like and like what does industry want? And it's like on some things, it's like it's purely like like the trump ministrations impulse seems to be just like whatever industry wants to give IT to him.

But like this is one of those areas where where is a little more complicated than that because again, like the established automakers don't want this going away, like they've made commitments to buy batteries to to build D V, to build factories. You know maybe not, you know, switch entire businesses over, but like still significant investments, those investments are ready, are not paying up very well. They're locked into more of them, you know and and the market is already showing signs of of weakness.

I I it's it's blowing up, right? Although IT is more showing europe, which is another interesting rick on all this, but one of the one of the the the the chAllenges with this is is because clearly must have said multiple times that he actually is for the the deliberation of that of that tax credit. And I think it's you know it's because he thinks that he has um you know scale and and a cost and and just like a number of us ahead starts, that IT will knock the weaker players out.

And that may be i'll hurt us like a bit, but overall, the sort of shore up their declining market share even if the overall market is declining. So it's kind of like pulling up the latter behind him kind of a thing. Um so clearly, this like a number of of different of different going on here, but I don't know it's it's like you say it's it's also not something that would be easy also, by the way, like if the they were to find A A mechanism for eliminating this that came out of this department of government efficiency that in lamos could be running like the conflict of interest. There will be so obvious that I don't see how IT doesn't go to some kind of civil assured or something like that. Um so IT IT all just seems really complicated and I think yeah like I think again sort of default scenario seems you know yeah we'll be a lot of rhetoric about around this but like can they really actually do anything.

my friends, almost out of time. So there's a piece of news and then. Something funny to say.

what's the news? So on a similar note. So you know the E V business in general is isn't a very weird and difficile boring now.

And in europe, it's actually getting hit the hardest. So last last year, EV sales in the in europe grew something like seventeen percent. This year, they are on track to grow only two and a half percent. So the the european market is is it's not shrinking, but the growth is gone from double digits to low single digit growth uh over overnight, like over the course of one year.

Um one of the pieces of of of the of this sort of unwinding, uh that's huge a huge piece of this is the now bankrupcy just today as we record this of north wall, which is um a battery company that was started in twenty fifteen by two former tesla executives. The numbers are eyes watering around. This is something like fifteen billion dollars of capital went into this company.

They had something like fifty five billion dollars worth of order commitments from major automakers ers, fifty five billion dollars in order commitments plus fifteen billion in capital. There is a lot of capital that. And then I think they were building something like they're were working like they like eight factory.

So like IT went from zero to like massive player. They were all of these know. And europe IT was very tied up in this.

You know, we knew we want these, but we don't want to just be dependent on china thing. It's all blowing up. It's all blowing up.

I mean, they have workers, paid workers that workers dying in their factories. They have and and now all at all bank cropt. And this is A A really a really big deal.

And I think for me, the real question is, is is this is this one company I haven't follow destroyed closely enough, but for me the question is this one company that was just like spectacularly badly uh, managed? Or is this a big domino in a broader sort of E V winter scenario? And I think that that's that's the scary scenario. And I don't have an answer sitting here right now. I don't know if you all have follow .

this close than I have. Well, I mean, we've written ten about IT and also the update IT was shouldn't surprise anyone as the convenient C E O has resigned as well. Um but I hate to bring this up but IT is reminiscent in some ways kind of loosely but just sort of like what you just outline, which is is IT mismanagement and just like on this one company or more reflective of like the evy went turbo.

If you remember back during the obama administration the cylinders situation with um a company a solar company that had received D O E loans and at that time clean deck was on the up right and I was like, um then kind of came crashing down. They ended up filing for big rupp. Cy, if I recall, I was reporting on at the time and there was a lot of talk like this means that solar, this reflective of, you know, what's going to happen within the industry and IT wasn't really.

Although the industry did go through quite the you know, there was a number of failures, there was lot of consolidation. But it's not like solar went away, like solar still here. So I kind of feels the same whether I think that there is gonna more of these.

I think we're going going to see a lot of pain, but I don't think that that's gona translate into like waking up next year. And it's like evs never we're here like I think that they're theyve carved out on market, nish. Um and I think they're here to stay, but it's going to .

be yeah I think .

it's bigger。 I mean, it's really, really going to be a bigger than I was five years ago, and I think that amount is here to stay. I don't see IT retracting and going in the opposite direction. But I think a big problem is like the cost of bb, you the next segment market to really make IT a volume play is to have cheaper Prices. And so that's a major problem.

And basically what happening is that is that the the global policy push of all the sort of western countries towards evs, which a lot of money has been sunk into, he's coming up against, uh, sort of the the sort of foreign policy concerns around china, right? And and and this is sort of the horns that we're stuck on, is that is that right? Like governments, well, some government.

And one of the things that's happening in europe is that governments are not are letting incentives expire. And its part, this is the the swing right in europe as well as in the us. So that that is one thing.

But but the other thing is that they have terrific against the chinese. So you know yeah you have affordability problems and yet you won't. You know though the only companies that are really sort of creating what seem to be compelling, affordable VS, you won't let into the country without massive of terrace. So something something has to give there, right?

Uh, I guess that depends on what the mission is, is the mission to keep on domestic products um you know boost that industry and and prop that industry up and focus on um and and keep you a more protectionism asuka any hopes that eventually you can get Prices down or is IT we have to hit very specific emission schools. And so whatever is the cheaper vehicle available, lets let IT in IT doesn't matter.

I think that you know like but but I think committing to one of the other, it's like you don't mean .

like i'll make a commitment. Here's my commitment. okay? The jack war brand short of a wild rebrand is dead.

Now want to make this real short for anyone. Isn't no, jaguar was roller world way more hardware. And for the first time, a long time, people were talking about jg war. Because we will use them for their wonderful rides, driverless rides. And last a few days ago, two things happen at the same day, magic Walker kisa this guys car designer magas Walker announced A V twelve super crazy incredible reboot of the X J uh X J S A coop um with the wild party L A with all the car and influencers were there.

And this thing is incredibly bad as looking fire breathing the big glasses and kick as awesome car and also on that day jaguar AR put out a video um titled um copy nothing which looks like by the way, he looks like the the people this video it's like all create first IT looks like the cool group of people used to count to my old club in new york the box and then commoter my place from after hours and IT IT was absolutely sanity however the real jaguar rebrand has been A P R catastrophe astrop he and they did show A T or image of a concept car what looks like a cool but i'm going to predict this jg words dead. They should be acquired because the only way jaguar k was back from this is that they learn the lesson of that crazy kids of magnets Walker car the jackpot brand is is a very specific audience. IT gave up on that audience decades ago. If IT wants IT back, IT needs to be something muscular, tough and alpha. And that was not.

So if i'm okay. So if i'm reading this correct, i'm hearing this correctly. Are you saying that the people in this video who reflect the types of people that used to hang out at your bar .

and parent o, are you .

not are not the alpha jair customer?

And this I .

am all .

four i'm all four um complete corporate cultures being healthy, interesting for the great people, awesome. But different brands appeal to different demographics. And here we had a messaging and market mismatch because if you have to see the video yourself, if understand IT, IT is the perfect video for a different product in a different vertical up for a different demographic. IT is absolute.

You're just saying that the brand is changing and you don't .

like IT the brand. The brand hasn't. The brand are changing. The brand, okay, is dead because of this. Watch the video .

and tell me all just breed to watch and tell tell me .

if that video we will sell a single car to anyone because the only way that does is if they would have to be, if they would have to come the table, something that they're not capable of when in print and ever can ceive of and prove me wrong in december when they show the concept.

Have you seen have you seen the spy shots of of of the big electric vehicle? I mean, it's essentially going to be it's going to be IT looks like IT looks like an in my bilin car IT looks like the last .

one ah and explain to me, tell me how that vehicle is going to be marketed using that rebrand to the people who want that vehicle. Let me tell you something. The big secret of really cool people in urban centers who dress cool or awesome and different. They can afford these cars.

Of course they can, but but you still use them. But they make they pay for their awesome outfits by leveraging their cool to sell things to rich people who aren't cool.

My works are here, but you're not marketing to rich people who aren't call going to for these cars.

With that message, let me push back. You don't OK so look, so look, there are fair criticisms of this rebrand. And like a look for me, the emblematic one is like when the new jaguar, it's like some of those letters are lower case in some more upper case.

And like IT makes my head hurt looking at IT. And like if you are in your design person like that bad. But what they're doing is, is they are killing off the old jg.

AR brand is a very intentional thing to do and and they're doing IT by, okay. So so they're dropping they stop making cars for a year as a big step for a car company. Do you're going to an all electric lineup and they're really launching in my ami.

So so again, that that is also very not jacquard, okay. So so what's happening here is, is they're making a clean break. They are redefining the jw brand.

Now I could say I I could understand the argument like so makes something new, right? Why are you doing this around the jail war brand that does have her to like? And and I think, you know we have to see the products to see, you know, dude, are they able to to navigate the baLance, right, of really like reinventing something while still having some reason left to even usage? I will brand and instead of just coming up with the new a new name altogether, but but the reposition is real.

Alex, the the counter factual to this. And I I think people who hate this rebrand ch. I think it's good, right? We should say a first off, things don't have to be good from like a refined design perspective to succeed. I think if you look around right now, like we clearly don't really live in a matter toc racy, right is like point a like bad things succeed a lot, good things fail a lot like so so to be clear about that, the other thing that is the counterfactual that's worth considering, I think, to me, is the dodge charger thing. You remember that video that they put out when they're like, oh, the charge is is going to be electric, but it's not going to be one of there is like gay community ctrip cars.

It's going to be like a real a real man, right? And like and like that video, like the branding and the whole thing IT was trying itself to, not because I was trying to reconcile this like existing mocho alpha masculine brand in this new era of of electric vehicles. And and and it's not by the way, it's not as electric vehicles new buyers, right, like women, much bigger part of the car market that they were from most of jaguar and dodges history, right? And so there is and gay people are a much bigger, know, L, G, B, T, Q people are much bigger part of the market than they were for any of the history of these brands and and the heritage of these brains are not equip to reach those buyers even a little bit.

And I think for me, that hold dodged everything around the dodging and we'll see maybe maybe what dodgy is doing is successful. Maybe that is the blueprint for what works here. My gut instinct is that it's not and that actually because because they're trying to reconcile their heritage with A A shift in a way that doesn't really break them free of the heritage.

They are really rooted in the heritage. They're trying to sort remix IT, but like it's holding them back and and IT feels weird and forced IT doesn't work with jab went again like i'm not i'm not surely to judge. We have to see how this place out way to see with the products look like we have to see how they continue to to to push this thing forward.

But to me, at least, they are not they're not stuck in the past. They are moving forward and they are trying to approach buyers who never would have even thought of a jack war before. And I think that .

I you give me can you give me an example of the buyer that would be compelled? Let's imagine by some miracle, they come out with an event that basically is a tesla. But IT is well built because that really is that that's the bar. So I mean.

there's a lot of L, G, B, T, Q people who who tesla who probably want to buy another tesla again at this point, they're right there, right there. That's a pretty I mean .

that do you think jack wire is going to release that car? I'm going to read you something.

I I it's early to say i'm playing little devils advocate here, but I think I.

I want to read you a paragraph, ed, that my i'm market anymore okay ay from ryme c. Manis, said ford, who's like one of the smartest people that company. Here's what he posts on threads yesterday.

He said, if jack reveals a world beating evy with a killer design, he'll be the first to eat his hat. To that I would add charging, ux, APP, infrastructure, seperate action. And he is always stressed what he says. But when you are log in, if you learn that a product is an outcome of a system and those systems are a result of culture, IT is very difficult and usually accidental, that a culture that creates bad outputs in one part of the business, like brand, can create something great. And another like product, the corporate fish always rots from the head.

How do you? How do you? How to explain tesla that, right? Tesla has things that people love about IT, and there's super passion about IT. And it's also a deeply, deeply, deeply a RAID defects and terrible storm.

Go good. The product. You x is so good. IT remains of a bar for all evs to this day outside of a couple of brains in china.

But but I I don't know that. I don't know that U X is, is, is something that you can build a bran's future on. I can think there's a lot more.

A U X is all you build a brands future on because nobody likes IT, they won't buy another.

okay. So .

off.

Well, stop, stop OK. First, I didn't anticipate when we hit record today that the various conversation was gonna about fucking jack wire. So here you go.

This yeah .

and keep you.

Yes.

I wanted think our audience for a listening to another episode of the atonement ast. And from here all turn IT over to alex, who is in charge of our business interest. All right.

So every year we have the best party CS people fly in for IT. The rest shows a waste of time. As you know, if you've been to see us before, you taught to cast parties on january seventh, if you would like to attend IT, you should email me aletta autonoe ast dot com and maybe we can fit you in.

It's a very hard invite to get. Now i'd like to thank our sponsors who have been incredible and supportive, and we have more sponsors than ever. Flag from sponsors wao. Thank you for supporters for so long. Woven mobile light roxi clear the michigan center for future mobility, cognitive michigan al ivax in motion ventures now jet that's A J L R jl a venture ARM um td bank mani mobility stir and trucks that VC LED by the godfather himself ever one's big brother in transportation investor rivi brunnen um we look forward to see all of you in vegas. And a subset of you who are invited in at our party makes signing off.

The rest of you will see on another pilot.