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cover of episode Reigniting Syria's civil war

Reigniting Syria's civil war

2024/12/5
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Today, Explained

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叙述者
吉哈德·亚齐吉
目击者
Topics
叙述者概述了叙利亚内战的背景,特别是1982年哈马事件以及最近反对派在阿勒颇的胜利。这突显了叙利亚冲突的长期性和复杂性,以及权力平衡的迅速变化。 目击者提供了对哈马大屠杀的亲身经历,强调了冲突的残酷性和人道主义灾难。 吉哈德·亚齐吉详细分析了HTS组织的崛起及其对叙利亚内战的影响。他解释了HTS的起源、意识形态和目标,并探讨了其与其他组织(如基地组织和ISIS)的区别。他还分析了HTS领导人朱拉尼的策略和目标,以及国际社会,特别是美国对HTS和叙利亚局势的反应。他认为,虽然HTS的行动对巴沙尔·阿萨德政权造成了重大打击,但也带来了新的不确定性和潜在的风险,包括叙利亚内战可能再次升级。 叙述者对叙利亚内战的最新发展进行了概述,包括反对派在阿勒颇的胜利以及由此引发的权力平衡的转变。叙述者还介绍了吉哈德·亚齐吉及其对叙利亚内战的长期研究,为后续的分析奠定了基础。 吉哈德·亚齐吉对叙利亚内战中的主要参与者、事件和动机进行了深入分析。他解释了叙利亚政府军在阿勒颇的迅速溃败,以及HTS组织的快速崛起。他分析了导致这一结果的各种因素,包括以色列对加沙和黎巴嫩的战争削弱了伊朗及其支持的民兵组织,以及叙利亚政府自身的衰弱和腐败。他还探讨了叙利亚民众对HTS占领阿勒颇的复杂反应,以及国际社会对这一事件的反应。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why did the rebel group seize Aleppo last weekend?

The seizure was partly a consequence of the Israeli war on Gaza and Lebanon, which weakened Iranian-backed militias. Additionally, the Syrian government has been impoverished, leading to low soldier morale and poor motivation to fight.

What was the immediate impact of the rebel group's success in Aleppo?

The success was a major defeat for Bashar al-Assad, changing the country's political landscape and undermining the belief that he had won the war. It also led to the release of political prisoners and the potential return of displaced people to their homes.

Who is the leader of the rebel group HTS, and what are his ambitions?

The leader is Abu Muhammad al-Julani, a former Al-Qaeda affiliate who now seeks to rebrand HTS as a more moderate Islamist organization. His ambition is to rule the whole of Syria, which would require him to compromise with various religious and ethnic groups.

Why is the U.S. hesitant to fully support the removal of Bashar al-Assad?

The U.S. seeks stability in the region, protection for Israel, and a weakened Iran. While it officially wants Assad out, it may prefer him over an uncertain alternative like HTS, as Assad can be a controllable entity for regional stability.

What are the potential positive outcomes from the recent developments in Syria?

Positive outcomes include the release of political prisoners, the potential return of displaced people to their homes, and a renewed focus on Syria, which could lead to better international engagement and support.

Chapters
This chapter discusses the recent rebel takeover of Aleppo, Syria, a significant turning point in the 13-year civil war. The rebels' swift victory and the Syrian government's unexpected collapse are analyzed, along with the potential consequences for Bashar al-Assad and the future of the conflict.
  • Rebel group seizes Aleppo, a major turning point in the Syrian civil war.
  • The Syrian government's defense unexpectedly collapsed.
  • The takeover was swift and resulted in minimal fighting.
  • The event is a major defeat for Bashar al-Assad, significantly altering the country's political landscape.

Shownotes Transcript

A rebel group changed the course of Syria's long civil war when it seized Aleppo this past weekend. The Syria Report's Jihad Yazigi tells us what motivates the group's canny and mysterious leader.

This episode was produced by Peter Balonon Rosen and Miles Bryan, edited by Matt Collette, fact-checked by Anouck Dussaud, engineered by Patrick Boyd and Rob Byers, and hosted by Noel King.

Transcript at vox.com/today-explained-podcast)

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A rebel fighter celebrates after they seized control of Aleppo, Syria this past weekend. Photo by Rami Alsayed/NurPhoto via Getty Images.

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