The seizure was partly a consequence of the Israeli war on Gaza and Lebanon, which weakened Iranian-backed militias. Additionally, the Syrian government has been impoverished, leading to low soldier morale and poor motivation to fight.
The success was a major defeat for Bashar al-Assad, changing the country's political landscape and undermining the belief that he had won the war. It also led to the release of political prisoners and the potential return of displaced people to their homes.
The leader is Abu Muhammad al-Julani, a former Al-Qaeda affiliate who now seeks to rebrand HTS as a more moderate Islamist organization. His ambition is to rule the whole of Syria, which would require him to compromise with various religious and ethnic groups.
The U.S. seeks stability in the region, protection for Israel, and a weakened Iran. While it officially wants Assad out, it may prefer him over an uncertain alternative like HTS, as Assad can be a controllable entity for regional stability.
Positive outcomes include the release of political prisoners, the potential return of displaced people to their homes, and a renewed focus on Syria, which could lead to better international engagement and support.
A rebel group changed the course of Syria's long civil war when it seized Aleppo this past weekend. The Syria Report's Jihad Yazigi tells us what motivates the group's canny and mysterious leader.
This episode was produced by Peter Balonon Rosen and Miles Bryan, edited by Matt Collette, fact-checked by Anouck Dussaud, engineered by Patrick Boyd and Rob Byers, and hosted by Noel King.
Transcript at vox.com/today-explained-podcast)
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A rebel fighter celebrates after they seized control of Aleppo, Syria this past weekend. Photo by Rami Alsayed/NurPhoto via Getty Images.
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