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Hello and welcome to this emergency reaction edition of the FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast. I'm Galen Druk, and yes, President Joe Biden has just dropped out of the 2024 race. Because of the context, the context of everything that has been, you know, that context, this is maybe not the most shocking thing, but from a historical perspective, it is big.
Regardless of the fact that it's a Sunday and that I was hanging out by the pool and Jeffrey Skelly, my man, was out cycling, we have convened quickly to react to this historical event. Here with me is senior elections analyst Jeffrey Skelly. Welcome, Jeffrey. Hi, Galen. This is the emergency podcast of emergency podcasts, I would say. Folks, we have been through a lot of history over the past eight and a half years on this podcast, but...
The past month has really, really taken the cake in a lot of ways. Jeffrey, I got a lot of questions. But to start out, what is your initial reaction? And I know that you study history pretty closely, particularly history of elections. Can you place this for us in history?
I mean, it's really unprecedented. So the modern era of presidential primaries and nominations runs back to the 1970s. And nothing like this has happened before, where the presumptive nominee of a party withdrew before the convention. I mean, it hasn't happened after the convention either. You could have an example of, say—
The democrats replacing their VP choice in 1972 after the convention.
But that wasn't the presidential nominee. That was the VP. So it was like a different situation to some extent. There are, of course, there was LBJ and Harry Truman kind of ran for reelection in 1968 and 48, respectively. But they dropped out after poor performances in the New Hampshire primary. And that was months before the conventions. Right. So this is just a very different ball of wax entirely. So I have to go back. I think Biden now.
would be the first elected president in their first term. So like their first term in office, they were elected. So not like LBJ coming in and winning after taking over because JFK was assassinated, but someone who was elected in their own right in their first term, choosing in the end to not run or to drop out or not be the nominee of their party.
I think it'd be the first time that someone hasn't been the nominee the next time since Rutherford B. Hayes didn't run again in 1880. There's some caveats there because we have a number of people who won in their own right after taking office because something happened to the president and they were the VP. But nonetheless, yeah, we're in pretty uncharted territory here.
Yeah, it's really remarkable. I think we have a lot of questions to answer in terms of what the polling suggests, whether it will be Kamala Harris automatically, some legal ramifications surrounding campaign cash. There's a lot going on. But I want to sort of take another beat here and just talk about what just happened. 24 days ago, there was a presidential debate between Biden and Trump. This was a historically early presidential debate between
And it was because Biden had asked for it. It was an absolutely disastrous performance. And we started talking about the possibility of Biden being replaced that night. The next day, the New York Times writes an editorial saying that he should get out of the race. And then there's a very slow trickle of lawmakers within the Democratic Party and also people in the media and some operatives, et cetera, saying that Biden should get out.
The goalpost keeps moving a little bit like, oh, wait until this NATO press conference, wait until this interview. And then just a week ago, I mean, a week and a day ago,
The opposition candidate experiences an assassination attempt that completely switches the news cycle as we go into the Republican National Convention. And we spend a week focused on the Republican Party and the pitches that Trump and his running mate, J.D. Vance, are now making to the American public. I mean, talk about things that could potentially change a news cycle, an assassination attempt and
and the Republican National Convention. We go into the weekend. Galen is exhausted. Sorry, I know that part doesn't matter. We go into the weekend, two o'clock, Sunday afternoon, Joe Biden announces he's dropping out of the race in a single, very concise post on X, I guess. He doesn't mention anything about who he's endorsing, a successor, nothing. He notes some of his accomplishments briefly, says that he will give a speech at a later date.
All of a sudden, everyone's like, wait, is he not endorsing Kamala Harris? Then sends out another post saying choosing Kamala Harris as a running mate was the best decision he made and that he endorses her for president of the United States in 2024.
This all happened in 24 days, Jeffrey. And now there are three and a half months left until Election Day. And to put a finer point on it, there are two months until early ballots start going out. So, you know, for our overseas listeners, whom we hear from a lot, y'all are used to doing these things on a really tight timeline. In the United States, a little bit less so. Although if you go back to the 1970s and before, there's obviously precedent.
Jeffrey, can you put this timeline in perspective? We always say that voters tune in after Labor Day anyway. So does this truncated timeline matter now? Or do you think it's just like, you know, it is what it is?
Yeah, I'm not sure if it does matter. Maybe it depends on who ends up being the Democratic nominee. So presumably it will be Vice President Kamala Harris, presumably. But we don't actually know that with certainty because none of the delegates at the Democratic National Convention are pledged
to vote for Kamala Harris, they're pledged to vote for Joe Biden, and then presumably would then just vote to re-nominate the vice president attached to him. When thinking about like the timeline, I think it's enough time for a national campaign to be carried out that involves, you know, a vice, sitting vice president. If it was anybody else,
who people weren't as familiar with, maybe perhaps that would create more of an issue. Let's go back to that fundamental question. Is there any circumstance in which Kamala Harris isn't the Democratic nominee? I don't want to rule it out, like the chance that she might not be it, because the delegates still have to choose. I know that there are concerns among some Democrats about Kamala Harris's ability to win. At the same time, I think in the wake of all of Biden's struggles,
People who are sort of like looking around for an alternative are like, well, we're running low on time and she's the clear alternative, can have access to the money, is capable, et cetera, et cetera. But does that mean that someone's not going to be like, hey, Gretchen Whitmer, what if I throw your name as a nomination on the floor of the convention? Like what's going to happen? I don't know. Probably nothing because I think the party is like organizing around Harris here, but I don't want to rule it out entirely.
Yeah, I mean, my reaction to all of this is that the past 24 days have shown that the Democratic Party is still a capital P party in the way that we learn about it in like political science classes, which is that parties are ultimately meant to be more important than the politicians.
It's like a concentration of different interest groups, sometimes competing interest groups, different parts of the American electorate and American society that come together and sort of figure out how to win political power to the best of their ability and make it the most likely that they will hold office and be able to enact the policies that they want. And the party is kind of an apparatus for
realized, decided, whatever, that Joe Biden was not that after the debate. And despite a lot of effort on behalf of Joe Biden, seemingly to stay in office, moved like heaven and earth to come to this conclusion.
And we've been in an era, we've talked about this a lot, of weak parties but strong partisanship, that the parties have taken a backseat to tribal politics and the politics of personality and so on. But I think the Democratic Party has proven itself to be quite strong in this circumstance. And that's kind of what leads me to believe that it's almost certainly Kamala Harris. Because once the sitting president throws his support behind her, and you've already seen, you know,
key other characters in the Democratic Party. I mean, former head of the DNC, Donna Brazile, has endorsed Kamala Harris. We haven't seen endorsements at this moment from some of the other viable candidates for the nomination, like Gretchen Whitmer, J.B. Pritzker, Gavin Newsom, Josh Shapiro, those folks. Maybe they're just biding their time to allow Joe Biden to have his moment or whatnot. But given the strength of the party,
Everything points in the direction of its Kamala Harris. And I want to say one more thing here because I've already seen it come up.
Speaker Johnson, House Speaker, in the immediate aftermath of Biden's announcement that he's not going to run for reelection, said that this is an undemocratic move that would take the Democratic nominee chosen by 14 million Democrats off the ballot, etc., etc. He's also suggested that they would bring legal challenges if Democrats tried to change nominees.
You know, I have mentioned this before on the podcast, but we spent a lot of time doing the primaries project, which aired as a series, actually a couple times in our feed at this point, that looks at the process by which parties choose nominees, because it's a really freaking important process, right? That's how we decide who runs to lead the United States of America.
The parties are not in the Constitution, and it is almost entirely up to the parties themselves how they want to choose nominees. There are some rules on the state level about what
delegates to the convention should or shouldn't do. But I think basically in no cases is it actually illegal for a delegate to vote for somebody other than the person that they were sent to support. And on top of that, Democrats don't really have
ultimately, bound delegates in the way that maybe the Republican Party does. And they are only required in, quote, good conscience to support the person that they have been sent to support. So from both like a democracy perspective, look, you know, there are world leaders across the globe right now who have been selected principally by their party apparatus to lead their ticket and become the leader of the party and then the leader of the country.
To set the record straight, this is not anti-democratic behavior as far as we understand how democracies work the world over. From a legal perspective, do you see these legal challenges as being an issue for Democrats, a challenge for Democrats? Do you think they'll be successful? I think they're frivolous. Biden's not the nominee yet. You know, if Biden were the nominee—
You know, if this was happening a week after the convention or something, maybe there would be something for that because of the timeline in some states for finalizing their ballots and replacing a nominee. But they're not replacing a nominee.
He's not the nominee yet. So that's why it was important for if this was all going to happen, that it happened before the convention, before there was an official act by the Democratic Party to nominate Biden. The Democratic Party is a major political party in every state. And basically the way it works is once they have their official nominee, then that person is put on the ballot in those states. So the attempt to make like a legal argument out of this is I just doesn't make any sense to me. Right.
It's like we have the official action by the convention, and that's the thing that makes somebody the official nominee. And that hasn't happened yet on the Democratic side. When it comes to the democracy conversation, I do think that there are legitimate concerns about that just because of how we operate in the United States. To be clear, I'm not saying it's anti-democratic in the way that Johnson, I think, played it out to be. But it is true that millions of people voted.
However, I do think there's a clear caveat here, which is that Biden essentially was unopposed. Apologies to Dean Phillips and Marianne Williamson, but he was essentially unopposed.
And so is it really comparable to saying that, oh, we – like the party ignored a bunch of voters if – especially if the person in question decided to withdraw? Now, granted, there was a lot of public pressure that helped bring that about. But nonetheless, I think trying to use the primary vote as evidence of this being like undemocratic or anti-democratic is –
you know, a little too cute by half, probably. And to put a finer point on that, too, look, like polls are not votes. And that's fundamental to what we do here. We get a read on the public and it's not actually counting ballots on Election Day. But I don't think that Biden would have stepped down if an overwhelming majority of Democrats, the actual voters, wanted him to stay. I mean, we saw a
Polls ultimately show that 60 to 70 percent of Democrats wanted Biden to get out of the race. The reality is, as you already mentioned, that there wasn't really a process for those Democratic voters to express that up until now, kind of. Dean Phillips aside, I want to get into like the raw politics of this in a second. We can talk about the polling and we can like head to head polling between Harris and Trump and we can talk about the P picks and stuff like that. But.
One more moment on the sort of machinations of it all. What happens to the campaign cash now? What happens to the campaign infrastructure? Like, obviously...
there are people who are leading the Joe Biden reelection campaign who are, are they now out of a job? Are they switching to Harris? Is Harris putting together her own team? So there's like FEC questions about the cash. And then there's sort of HR questions about the people who are going to run this campaign. Yeah. So my understanding is the, and one of the important reasons why Harris, besides being vice president and having like, this is your job, right. Is to be like the backup. Yeah.
is that under the Federal Election Commission rules, she's on the campaign committee. My understanding is that the transfer of cash that is in the Biden campaign account, it's not even an essential, it's essentially not even being transferred if Harris is the nominee because it's the same campaign. So she would have access to all that money the party has raised. If Harris weren't the nominee, my understanding is that
You can't access that money in the same way. However, you could create like a super PAC with that money or something like that. But that would mean that the campaign wouldn't have direct control of it, which has consequences for the cost of advertising, the cost of what you spend things on because the campaign committees for candidates get better rates than outside groups do. So Harris also is just like the streamlined move. I mean it's the most obvious move for the party to make for a whole host of reasons, and this is just one of them.
You were asking about what's going to happen with the campaign apparatus. I did see some reporting from The Hill that alums of Obama's 2008 and 2012 campaigns said they would help Harris get her own presidential campaign operation up. This is Alex Bolton at The Hill.
And like get it up and running if Biden agreed to step aside. The other thing I do want to mention that is interesting here, I think thinking about the Democratic Party and what you were talking about earlier about like the strength of the party. Seth Maskett, who has contributed to FiveThirtyEight many times in the past and has an excellent sub stack that people should check out called Tusk. He was talking about like how a party operates and how the party was reacting to the circumstances.
And he has a really interesting chart from a book he wrote about Democrats sort of learning from their defeat in 2016 ahead of the 2020 election. And it's essentially if you're a Democratic primary voter or just a Democratic voter in general, do you prefer a candidate that you agree with their position on most issues or do you prefer someone who can win the general election in November? So up until the 2020 election, the 2004 cycle, 2008 cycle, 2016 cycle,
People said that they would prefer someone they agreed with on the issues. But then in the 2020 cycle, that flipped famously. We talked about electability ad nauseum in that election cycle. And it was essentially that voters were saying – Democratic voters were saying we care most about winning because they see Trump as like an existential threat, right? And I think part of the reason how you end up with where we are right now is that –
That remained true. And the idea that Biden could not get out of what seemed to be turning into like a death spiral for his campaign and the concern that, you know what, even if he could maybe win still, I'm not sure he can hit a ceiling of any kind. And it seems like, you know, the debate completely went wrong. Everything's gone wrong.
And we're just going to be talking about his age until November instead of Trump, right? That's going to be a distraction from making our case. The fact that I think at the end of the day, Democrats still want to win. They want to beat Trump again is an important factor in getting people to make this push. Like if we were maybe in different political circumstances where the two parties weren't so divided and there wasn't a feeling, you know, such negative partisanship and such –
animosity toward each other and the concern that Biden can't beat Trump, like if that's the worry that people have, I think that helped generate the sort of necessary energy among Democrats, Democratic leaders, and just like voters out there saying, yeah, I think Biden should step aside. And I think that's like an important thing to keep in mind here.
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Looking at the national polling today, on average, Trump leads Biden nationally by about three and a half percentage points. I'll just pick one, you know, northern battleground state to give you an example. Trump leads Biden by four and a half percentage points in Pennsylvania. There were some really bad polls in Wisconsin for Biden this morning that I don't think have been averaged in yet because it is a Sunday after all. But that is all going to go away and somebody else will be running against Trump.
We've been speaking as if it's very likely to be Harris, so let's roll with that. Does Harris, at least in this moment, pull better against Trump than Biden?
So I think the answer to that is maybe. And I say that because there are some polls where she does poll better, but there are also some where she polls worse. And it's sort of difficult to know, I think, exactly what the sources of that are. Is it some Democrats not saying yes, like they're going to plan to vote for the Democratic nominee because it's not Biden? And so they're just like less likely to say that. But in other polls, she does do better.
It seems like in some higher quality polls, she has done a little better than Biden. But again, it's always inside the margin of error. So like I did a chart.
when I was kind of looking at this on Friday, if you kind of look at state and national polls that tested both Biden and Harris against Trump, if zero is the middle point here, it's kind of even on both sides. So she does better in as many polls as she does worse. Exactly. So that, I think, makes it kind of hard to know. And is it more because Biden has lost ground? Probably. But is there also some degree to which Harris is doing better? And I
And I think we're going to need our polling average to maybe help with that and try to make sense of it. But I will say that before the debate, any Biden-Trump poll that also tested Harris against Trump pre-debate, almost all of them had Harris doing worse. And that stretches back – like I looked back to like January, like January to June. So like the first six months of the year basically is what it ends up working out as. And –
Harris regularly did worse than Biden, but now it's a much more mixed bag. So if you're thinking about like also all this is hypothetical polling until right now, and maybe it even still is hypothetical for a bit longer until we know if Harris is actually the nominee. But nonetheless, that's also a thing where this campaign in a way could get slightly like partially reset. And that I think makes it also more unpredictable, you know, how just how it's going to pan out.
Looking at some of the approval data, Biden is underwater by 18 percentage points, whereas Harris is underwater by 12 percentage points. So on net approval, Harris does better. Does that suggest that she has more upside, just that fewer people know who she is? Ultimately, net approval should weed out the problem of people not knowing who you are. But what does that tell you, that Harris performs a little bit better there?
Yeah, I mean, it's interesting because I think for a long time there was a thought that Harris had worse ratings than Biden. But that was complicated because fewer people had an opinion about her than they did Biden.
So if you were saying she had a lower approval rating, it was like, well, she also has a lower disapproval rating. I do take it as, to some extent, an opportunity to have a higher ceiling than Biden. And I think that was the case that people who wanted Biden to drop out were making was that Biden's ceiling is maybe descending. And so his ability to sort of turn it around and potentially beat Trump, whereas Harris or any other potential Democratic choice is
There's just more unknowns. But the unknowns here, when you're facing the prospect of potentially losing the election, might look really nice. So, you know, if she has a worse—she has a better approval rating than Biden, in part because—
fewer people have a negative opinion of her. It does seem to me that there's just more potential there. Does that mean she'll actually realize that potential? We have no idea. But I do think that that's definitely an important component to this, is the thought that she has more potential than Biden had. Yeah, and I think it's worth saying here that today, you know, before any of this really plays out, it seems like it's
it's fair to say that Harris is starting from a very similar point as Biden. You know, our producer Shane put together some rough averages on how Harris is performing in the battleground states. Michigan, Harris trails Trump by 2.7 percentage points. Wisconsin, 3.1. Pennsylvania, 3.7. Nevada, 7. Arizona, 7.5. Georgia, 7.5. I mean, not only on a national picture does the average come out to be
roughly similar to Biden, but also on a state level, it looks roughly similar to Biden. So I think Democrats are making two bets here, which is, hey, you put somebody at the top of the ticket who can give voice to their best arguments about why they should win the election.
basically concluding that Biden wasn't able to do that through a vigorous campaign. So then there's like potential upside. And then the other thing is just maybe a governing decision as well, sort of regardless of what happens on November 5th. Does it seem like Biden can perform his duties until he's 86 years old in January of 2029?
That means that we're just going to have to wait and see a little bit about whether any of that potential upside or, you know, there's potential downside to I'm sure that there's a lot of oppo research and the likes on Harris that we haven't seen before that we are about to see. Also, she will have the opportunity if she is the nominee to pick a running mate and put on, you know, a really big show, which otherwise could have been quite boring in Chicago the third week of August.
We'll probably do a Harris VP draft at some point this coming week. So just stick around. So much content, Galen. So much content. But who would we put on the shortlist?
Josh Shapiro is a name to get bandied about. He's been pretty popular here in his first couple of years as governor of Pennsylvania. That's a quick turnaround. He also surely seems like an up-and-comer who might have presidential ambitions who could maybe go places for Democrats. I mean, look, there is some thought that Kamala Harris, if she's the nominee, would end up picking Trump.
you know, some old white guy. Well, why old? Well, it doesn't have to be old necessarily. In fact, you know, maybe there's an argument that she should be looking for someone like Shapiro who is, you know, the kind of a younger face, somebody to energize. Maybe it's kind of a Bill Clinton strategy in 92, right? Bill Clinton, Al Gore, like double down. I mean, look, to be clear, Kamala Harris. I mean, funny to say that about a 60 year old. I mean, she's 59. Yeah, no, she's 59. To say that about a 60 year old. But in a context of when you're running against a 78 year old,
You skipped right over Roy Cooper or Andy Beshear. Oh, sure. Andy Beshear is probably, if you're thinking about the young conversation and somebody who doesn't have anything obvious to do after this, Andy Beshear would be a very interesting choice. Because he's term limited. He's the governor of Kentucky, Democrat in a red state, obviously term limited. Roy Cooper, he's termed out in North Carolina or yeah, he's not running again. And
Older guys, been around for a while. Swing state, maybe you can make an argument there that he would help a little bit.
So there's just a lot of options. And I think actually it's extremely fascinating. And I don't know. I just think there are a lot of different directions you can go in this context. You know, we're just going to have to kind of... We're going to see. But I'm really looking forward to the draft because a lot of names. I mean, yo, what about... Where's Beto O'Rourke? Born to run, you know? I mean, think all the people who could join the chat. Oh, my God. Let's also not forget to say Pete Buttigieg's name because I'm sure that's going to get bandied about as someone who...
seem to acquit himself fairly well in the 2020 primary for the Democrats and is obviously a cabinet member and is young. Again, if you're kind of trying to contrast here. Right. Okay. On that topic,
Dave Wasserman tweeted, you know, shortly after Joe Biden announced he was getting out. Now Republicans are locked into a nominee who's 78 years old while Harris is 59. Recent 10 plus year age gaps between major nominees have favored two younger Democrats, Obama versus Romney, Obama versus McCain, Clinton versus Dole, Clinton versus Bush. OK, so you can kind of obviously correlation is not causation.
But how significant is the fact that Americans seemingly want change? Biden is going to remain the president. He gets blamed for inflation. I mean, of course, you know, she was put in charge of root causes of immigration as part of her issue portfolio already. I think we're seeing focus on that as a line of attack. But he remains the incumbent. She runs as like, well, part of the administration, but also a candidate of change for.
Trump is now 20 years older than her. Maybe she picks somebody who's similarly at least 60 or below. Does that really fundamentally change the dynamics of this race or is that wishful thinking on Democrats part? So obviously, because Harris is the vice president and Biden has endorsed her, if she is the Democratic nominee, it's not going to be easy to truly separate Democrats.
However, again, we're operating in a situation where the Republican nominee is a former president who people are very familiar with and remains someone who's not very favorably viewed by a very large chunk of the electorate. So I think, again, we've talked about this a lot, but the whole problem for Biden was he was struggling to put back together an anti-Trump coalition. And so I think it's just the big question is, can Harris do that?
Maybe, maybe she can't. But if you're trying to think about a contrast, the age contrast is there. And we have seen polling like, look, a majority of Americans said Biden was like too old to run again, too old to serve another four years. But a lot of those polls also have majorities of Americans saying the same thing about Trump. You know, obviously not the same level as Biden, but there are a lot of voters who think Trump is,
is too old to run again. And so it does seem like this flips the script a bit on who gets the focus there. Now, Trump doesn't come across to people perhaps as, as old as Biden did, but it's still a thing that's there. And it could be a talking point for Democrats moving forward and Democrats. Well, regardless of however this plays out, Democrats can make the case that like we have responded to the public's dissatisfaction with
with the choices by trying to do something different. And right now, they're actually the only party that can say that.
All right. Well, we're going to leave it there for now, but I'm sure that we are going to be back soon enough. I'll say I think this likely takes the place of our Monday podcast because we're just going to be very reactive throughout the coming week. So we'll maybe take a beat and see what more there is to react to before we jump back in front of microphones. We have an emergency meeting in like 10 minutes. Yeah, we do. We have an emergency meeting in 10 minutes.
But also, don't be surprised if the next podcast is not out Monday night. But again, TBD. For now, Jeffrey, thank you for ditching your bicycle and joining me on this Sunday afternoon. Thank you, Galen. We live in interesting times, one way or the other. You know, people falling out of coconut trees left and right.
With that, my name is Galen Druk. Our producers are Shane McKeon and Cameron Chertavian, and our intern is Jayla Everett. And a special thanks to Shane McKeon, who also jumped on this podcast recording on this Sunday. So thank you. You can get in touch by emailing us at podcasts at 538.com. You can also, of course, tweet at us with any questions or comments. If you're a fan of the show, leave us a rating or a review in the Apple Podcast Store or tell someone about us. Thanks for listening, and we'll see you soon.