What To Watch For On Super Tuesday
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And cut. See, I've been doing this for how many years and I still can't do the theme. The theme music is very hard to try to... I don't know about that. Okay, Nathaniel, go. Do it. Okay, Leah? I thought we were going to do a round. Ready? You keep going and then I'll add. Okay. No, I'm not doing this. Don't bluff me, Leah. Wait.

What theme are we singing? The podcast theme. I can't tell. It's a 538 politics theme. I mean, I think that's evidence enough that you didn't get it, Nathaniel. Wow. I thought I was pretty good.

Hello and welcome to the FiveThirtyPolitics podcast. I'm Galen Druke. We've got a busy week ahead of us. And in fact, we've already had a busy morning. It's Monday morning, just for the record. The Supreme Court ruled that Colorado may not remove former President Trump from the primary ballot based on Section 3 of the 14th Amendment.

Also, tomorrow, Tuesday, is Super Tuesday. It's the most delegate-rich day of the primary. 854 delegates are up for grabs on the Republican side, or 35% of the total. The question, as you are probably aware, is not quite who will come out on top, but perhaps whether Trump will manage to sweep all of the

all 15 of the Republican contests and whether he'll be on track to numerically secure the nomination within just a week or so. I should say we've been debating this this morning, how many contests there are between the two parties and all of the states and territories on Super Tuesday. I think we settled on there are 15 Republican contests and there are 16 Democratic candidates

contests in 16 states plus one territory. If we're wrong, fact check us. We're going to break down what to expect, including which states might give Nikki Haley her best shot at a win. Over the weekend, she won the contest in Washington, D.C., ensuring that at the very least, this primary will not be a shutout.

We're also going to have, I should say, a late night reaction podcast for you, probably in your feeds Wednesday morning. And then Thursday is the State of the Union address when we'll again have a late night pod for you all.

Today, we're also going to turn our focus to Congress. Last week, a Democratic-led bill to ensure access to IVF treatment was blocked by Republicans in the Senate, and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell announced he'll be stepping down from his post in November. He is the longest-serving Senate leader in history, so it's the end of an era, and we'll mark what that means for the GOP.

Here with me to kick things off is senior elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich. Welcome to the podcast, Nathaniel. Happy Monday. Good morning, Galen. Happy Super Monday. Oh, is it Super Monday? Is that how it works? Super Monday comes before Super Tuesday? You know how like, you know, there's Easter Sunday and there's Good Friday and then there's like Palm Sunday and stuff like that. So it goes Super Tuesday, Super Monday, and then there's Good Friday.

Super duper Wednesday, because that's when we get to sleep, etc. And then Savage Thursday, which is the State of the Union. Also here with us is politics reporter Mia Iskarnam. Welcome to the podcast. Hi, thanks for having me. It's my pleasure. Is everything going okay over there? I'm fine. I'm fine. Everything's good. Everything's great. I was just thinking about how Nathaniel was like.

It was like Wednesday, we all get to sleep. It's not always the case with everyone. So it's just that was just running through my brain. We have said Nathaniel, speak for yourself. Also here with us is senior elections analyst Jeffrey Skelly. Welcome to the podcast, Jeffrey.

Hey, Galen. Thanks for having me. I have a bit of a cold, if that's not clear to all listeners. Jeffrey, I hope you're feeling better soon. I will say, I like a cold voice. As somebody who works in audio, I think, like, I know it probably doesn't feel good, but you sound fantastic. Well, hey, you know, it's just my radio voice that I've always been missing.

Just making love to the microphone. I can really get those low notes. Yes. Ooh. Yes. What cup are you drinking out of? Leah saw. Yep. I saw, too. Is it a beer stein? No, it's a butter beer. My wife's a Slytherin, so I have a Slytherin mug, you know? Ooh.

I'm a Hufflepuff for the record. Interesting. And with that, okay, so we were not planning on discussing this this morning, but then the Supreme Court said best laid plans can go to hell.

We're going to... Famous Robert Burns quote. Yes, exactly. Exactly. So the Supreme Court has ruled that Donald Trump cannot be removed from the primary ballot based on the 14th Amendment. This was the expectation. So I don't think there are any surprises here. There was...

A unanimous ruling, although some of the justices wrote concurring opinions, basically saying that we don't want this decision to be overly broad or try to deal with future instances where the 14th Amendment might be applicable, etc., etc. Anyone have takeaways from the news this morning, other than it was the expected outcome? No, I mean, I think this was exactly what we all anticipated. The nature of this challenge, the fact that it's a conservative-leaning Supreme Court...

And the fact that this same attempts to get Trump off the ballot in a number of states had failed. Colorado was a place where it had succeeded to some extent, even though he was actually going to be on the ballot anyway, basically because of the appeal process. His name was already on the Colorado primary ballot. But I think it was just the expectation that it was sort of a bridge too far to think that the Supreme Court was going to be okay with individual states voting.

keeping Trump's name off the ballot. I mean, this was very much expected. And also, we also found out last week that the Supreme Court is going to take up the case regarding whether or not Trump has presidential immunity. We're expecting that in April.

And as we discussed on a recent podcast, that's the necessary first step for the Jack Smith case based in D.C. surrounding January 6th and attempts to overturn the 2020 election. In order for that to go forward, the Supreme Court first needs to rule on this. So we will see where that puts us in terms of a timeline regarding whether that case will go to trial before the election. Let's talk about Super Tuesday.

Take your pick on what you would like to say in terms of how many contests there are going to be on Tuesday. For clarification, on the Democratic side, Iowa's virtual caucus has been happening since January, but we will get the results later.

on Tuesday. So that's up to you whether or not that election is taking place tomorrow. I guess, sure, say yes. Nathaniel looks like he's going to say something. Sorry, this just triggers the election administration nerd in me. So it is more properly thought of as a party-run primary. There is not

like caucusing the way that you think about specifically in Iowa. It's basically a mail in election that's administered by the state party. And the deadline to return those ballots is on Tuesday, which by kind of convention, you know, I mean, like theoretically, you could say California, which is like a vote by mail state, like has a several week long Election Day. But the deadline to vote is Tuesday. And that's what everybody considers, quote unquote, Election Day. So for Iowa, yes, like Election Day for all intents and purposes is Tuesday.

So you're not buying the virtual caucus framing that the Iowa Democratic Party has? Okay. All right. They just want to keep the caucus name. They're trying to save face after the disastrous 2020, and we are not going to let them. We're not here for that. We can still do technology. We're doing a virtual. The great technology of the veil. Wait, a virtual caucus makes me feel like there's going to be breakout Zoom rooms where you can go and caucus with like-minded voters.

voters, etc., etc., like the Marianne Williamson Zoom room. It's male. The Dean Phillips Zoom room. Oh, no. Which button do I press on the screen to go to the right caucus? Oh, no. We might not reach 15%, and I might have to move to a different breakout room. Oh, no. It's like Zoom hell. And you can just imagine...

One of those people that you hire to do remote office bingo is the person coordinating the caucus. They're like, "Okay, in 30 seconds, you're going to go to your breakout room and you're going to talk amongst yourselves and you're going to come and report back

You're going to come up with a team name. And then they're like, actually, Iowa's no longer first. That's how this ends. Okay. What is the likelihood that Donald Trump goes 15 for 15 in tomorrow's caucuses? Jeffrey? I would say very high.

I'm not going to put a number on that. I'm just going to say it's in the realm of the 95% statistically significant. Interesting that the Vermonter is saying this, given that Haley's best shot. Yeah, I mean, I think Vermont, maybe Massachusetts are Haley's best shots. But even then, we have, I think, kind of the most polling from Massachusetts, right?

And Trump is well ahead. Now, I do kind of think, and we have seen this to some extent so far this cycle, that the polls might be slightly exaggerating Trump's edge. But at the same time, he's so well north of 50 in these states that I think it's hard to imagine Haley actually winning them.

Could you have like Vermont and Massachusetts with margins that look more like New Hampshire? Yeah, sure. But that's still Trump winning. So in my view, it's pretty likely that Trump will sweep the Super Tuesday slate.

I'm not sure. I don't think I'd put it as high as 95%. She only just needs to win one to have that condition not be met, obviously. The tricky thing is in the first four major contests that were polled, so this is Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Michigan, the polls have underestimated Haley in all these instances. And we always like to say at FiveThirtyEight, like you can't predict the direction of polling error in advance. And so like, I don't want to make too much of it, but also at the same time, it's

It's interesting. Maybe that pattern will continue. You can come up with a very easy explanation, which is just the pollsters aren't kind of accounting for all of the basically Democratic-leaning independent voters who are coming out to vote for Nikki Haley. And so, like, you could see the polls being off again in states like Vermont and Massachusetts that have a lot of those types of voters. That said, yes.

the degree of polling error would need to be massive in order for them to for Haley to win those states, given that in our average, Trump leads in Massachusetts by 37 points right now. But on the other hand, we just we don't have that many polls, actually, like the most recent poll of Massachusetts is a month old. And there's only been one poll of Vermont in the last month. So if we're talking about like a

polling error in those races, like that would really just be based on like these very old polls and or a single recent Vermont poll. And like, that's not crazy. You know, we saw the, you know, the famous Michigan primary from 2016 when there was this massive polling error. Like it can't happen. And everybody's just going to point to Michigan forever because it's kind of the exception. But I think part of what happened in Michigan is one, the demographics of the state aligned well for Bernie Sanders.

Also, there was momentum in Bernie Sanders' favor that was happening nationally. So first of all, let me just lay out which states are voting on the Republican side on Super Tuesday, and then we can break down which we think align well demographically for a non-Trump candidate to win, which would be Nikki Haley in this case. So it's Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virginia.

Of those, what are we talking about? We've already mentioned Massachusetts and Vermont. What other states are we talking about in terms of not particularly great for Trump's coalition?

Well, my native state of – or native commonwealth of Virginia might be Trump's weakest state in the south. Back in the 2016 Republican primary, it was one of his worst states in the south. You also – if you sort of look at the components of Republican primary voters in 2016 in Virginia, I think the Trump-Cruz-Carson vote added up to about 58 percent there.

which was basically about the lowest percentage in the South if you added up sort of those three candidates and thought of them as very much like the Trumpier wing of the party. Whereas if you added up like Rubio and Kasich or Bush, you'd get a larger share in Virginia than in other places. And I think the fact of the matter is like Virginia is a somewhat more well-educated state than much of the rest of the South.

So you're going to have some voters who might find Haley more appealing, I think, particularly in the major metropolitan areas of that state. It's also an open primary, right? So those independents or Democrats who've kept their powder dry can vote for Nikki Haley. Right. And that's true. Now, that's true in a lot of states in the South, because much of the South still has open primaries and no party registration, which is a relic of the one party Democratic South.

Quick history lesson there. But...

I don't know, you look at a state like Alabama or Tennessee, those aren't states where that open aspect is really going to change much, right? But I do think at a state like Virginia that is a Democratic-leaning state, you could have some Democratic-leaning independents and even a few Democrats who choose to participate in the Republican primary. And, you know, they're probably not voting for Donald Trump. So that, again, is something that could help Haley there.

I wonder kind of what the big question is that we're trying to answer in terms of Trump's success tomorrow night. Looking at national polling and looking at the last several states to hold primaries, I mean, Trump has been in the lead. Nikki Haley won her first primary last night in Washington, D.C.,

A party-run primary. This is one that took place at a hotel, I think. Yeah, over three days. Not exactly a state-run primary. Right. Momentum is on Trump's side. And the thing is that what matters in terms of these contests is the delegate rules in individual states. So if we're looking at states where, like in Virginia, you know, if Trump

Trump wins 50 percent, he wins all the statewide ones that it's congressional district. But also, is that what we're missing? Because I guess the high stakes question is, like, does Trump win enough delegates to set him up to win next Tuesday or does he win enough delegates to set him up to win the nomination the following Tuesday? So suspenseful. So suspenseful.

I don't know. I mean, it's... Sorry, Leah. Are you highlighting the fact that we're trying to make hay of two uncompetitive primaries? No, I'm not. Are you just ruining... Are you breaking down the fourth wall and ruining all of our fun? I promise I'm not. Because I actually think this is like a conversation worth having and I think it matters and this is like the biggest primary date. So I absolutely think it matters. I just think it's helpful to refocus...

Like, what are we talking about? Are we talking about whether Nikki Haley drops out? Like, because if that's the case and he wins like every single state, but she still gets a handful of delegates from congressional districts, is that the metric that we're going to use to measure whether Trump had an amazing night or a really, really great night? I don't know. Yeah. So actually, I think what is instructive for Democrats

judging this is, as folks may know, the New York Times-Santa College released their latest round of polling over the weekend. And to quote Nate Cohn in writing up that poll, the poll found Mr. Trump leading Nikki Haley in the Republican primary 77 to 20. That's pretty good for Mr. Trump, of course, but it's actually Ms. Haley's best result in a month. And according to our poll, there's a simple reason for her strength.

Biden voters, who now make up 15% of those who say they will probably vote in the Republican primary, in fact, a near majority of Ms. Haley's supporters, 48% versus 31%, say they voted for Mr. Biden in the last election instead of Mr. Trump.

which is to say, I actually don't even think that question is relevant. How well Nikki Haley performs on Tuesday night may have more to do with how many Biden voters participate in the Republican primary than anything else, than how well Trump has kept his coalition together. Because if you continue reading Nate Cohn's fantastic write-up,

Mr. Trump is winning 97% of those who say they voted for him four years ago. And now we're talking about the general election matchup. And virtually none of his past supporters say they are casting a ballot for Mr. Biden. In contrast, Mr. Biden is winning only 83% of his 2020 voters, with 10% saying they now back Mr. Trump. So...

What we are, I think, talking about on Tuesday night is accounting exercise and an attention exercise more than learning anything about the 2024 general election or learning anything about how much the Republican coalition has broken down as a result of Nikki Haley's challenge to Trump. I think that's also fair just to say, like, we're looking at an election for the election results. Yeah.

We're looking at the election for what it is. We're not looking for tea leaves. We're not looking like for like, we're just curious what the results are going to be. But I think that was a good question. I'm glad, I'm glad you asked it. Oh, thank you. I mean, I will say that one of the interesting dynamics here is whether or not Haley feels good enough about whatever happens on Super Tuesday to keep her campaign going. Like campaigns are dynamic things for her to continue to

beyond March 5th as an opponent of Trump, as a critic of Trump, would be notable and could be important in terms of the national conversation about the former president and what a presidency of – returned the White House for Trump would mean. So that to me is interesting, and I do think that's where those results matter.

But we know Trump is going to be the Republican nominee, barring some like incredibly crazy thing happening. So and that incredibly crazy thing is not does not involve voting. So so like Republicans have made their choices very clear. I mean, the exit polls in the states we have them 70 percent plus of people who identify as Republicans say they're voting for Trump.

And, oh, shocker, a majority of people voting in a Republican primary identify as Republicans. So he's on a glide path to the nomination. Can I ask, given what you just said, this question? So the top line from the Times-Siena College poll over the weekend was 48% support for Trump, 43% support for Biden in a general election matchup. Do you think that Trump

or Biden is likelier to be the party's nominee in November? Like, I know that you think that both of them are extremely high, but if you had to differentiate between the two of them, who would you say is less likely to be the party's nominee come November? I would say Biden.

I think I think I would say I would say the same, but I know Nathaniel hates this conversation. I do. Well, I know it's because it's very unlikely either way, either of them not being the nominee is unlikely. But you're talking about like 97 percent chance, 98 percent chance that Trump is the Republican nominee and a 95 percent chance or 94 percent chance or something that Biden is the nominee. And so so you're talking about small differences, but I think it's much easier to.

to imagine a scenario at this point actually where democrats in a panic pressure biden and biden proves more receptive to that than he seems right now for whatever reason like who knows like we don't know what's going to happen he's older than trump maybe a health crisis is more likely i mean we just don't know but i'm just saying that the conditions for biden to step aside seem

Like more likely, even if they are unlikely, broadly speaking, very unlikely than than Trump, because the Republican Party is is absolutely not ready to quit Trump. They are all in again on Trump round round three, really. So I think that's an important aspect of this.

OK, so I hate this question for the record. Galen, don't like this. But I kind of think I also I guess I can't stop myself from answering it because I do think that there's like more chaos on the Republican side and therefore like more variables that like could

Like if Biden's not the nominee, it's like it's because of his age. Right. Like we know exactly what that is. Or his unpopularity. He could turn out to be a very dynamic campaigner. But if he's stuck at 38 percent and he's like losing in the polls, like by the convention, maybe he decides to step aside voluntarily. I don't know. Obviously, very unlikely. Let me see to that point. Let's say let's say that is the case. So it'd be his age slash popularity with Trump. There are some court cases. There's like court.

Court cases.

That's some court cases. None of that's going to keep Republicans from voting for him. You think if he ends up in prison or something like that, that's what you're talking about? They'll nominate him. This is why it's a bad question, guys. All right? I'm saying it's a bad question. Okay. So new question. New question. I maintain it was a good question and a valid question, and we got the right answer. But I have a new question, which is we're talking about whether or not Nikki Haley will drop out after Super Tuesday. And...

And I'm curious from a,

media narrative perspective. The way that this primary has unfolded is that after every contest, everyone's like, Trump blows Nikki Haley out of the water, like blows like competition out of the water. And so the message that voters are hearing in general is about Trump's strength, right? He may be losing 30% of the vote, but because in general, the media is treating this as a competitive primary and not an incumbent seeking renomination, Trump

and we've already had that debate, we don't have to rehash it. Basically, the press for Donald Trump is very positive. It's basically describing him as a resounding winner again and again and again. Whereas on Biden's side, the coverage is a bit more like, well, it's not competitive anyway, and people don't like him, and there's an uncommitted vote in Michigan, et cetera, et cetera. So my question is,

There's a school of thought that would say if Nikki Haley stays in the primary, she's

she will be criticizing Trump month after month, day after day, saying, you know, this is not the direction the party should go in. We need to rise to the occasion on the global stage and take on Putin and Xi Jinping and blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. But then does that sort of media narrative continue of like Trump blows Nikki Haley out of the water, Trump blows Nikki Haley out of the water all the way until June, say she stayed in that long. I don't see reason for her to do that. Or like,

Do we just start general election coverage if she gets out of the race? And then that's actually worse for Trump because the focus really just turns to his court cases as opposed to like whether or not he's beating Nikki Haley. Neither, because I think if Haley decides to stay in the race, unless she genuinely makes it competitive, she's going to become Ron Paul or Dennis Kucinich, where like Trump is going to clinch the nomination on March 12th or 19th and then

I would hope maybe not, but like the media will just simply stop covering it. And even if she is still an active candidate, those primaries will not matter because Trump has already mathematically clinched the nomination. So I think general election coverage is going to begin in a couple of weeks anyway. I think it's a little bit of a chicken or the egg question. I mean, yesterday on the Sunday shows, Nikki Haley basically said, like, I'll stay in if I'm competitive.

And then she also, I think, said on NBC, follow-up question, Kristen Wilker, like, what does competitive mean? And she's like, well, you guys decide kind of what's competitive. And I'm paraphrasing here. That's part of what I was trying to get at with my what sounded like a nihilistic question, but really was just like a what result makes this a competitive race? Yeah.

And then from there, like if it is competitive, then Nikki Haley stays in and I assume coverage continues. If it's not, then Nikki Haley drops out and it's not like, I don't know.

Yeah. To that point, I appreciate Nathaniel's response saying, like, it doesn't matter either way. But I don't think it's quite that because I think the media also likes Nikki Haley. And so even if mathematically Trump has clinched the nomination, which we expect to happen in mid-March, whether it's, as you mentioned, in a week or two weeks...

giving speeches or doing the Sunday shows or whatever is different. The way that the media treated Ron Paul was in no way similar to the way that the media's relationship with Nikki Haley. And quite frankly, his role in the party was very different from Nikki Haley. So I'm not just saying like the media is arbitrarily choosing like. I don't know if that's true. Well, whatever. OK, we don't even have time to have that debate. But go ahead, Nathaniel.

I think you're right. Like, I definitely think like Nikki Haley is very is like a media darling. You know, maybe she would continue to be covered even after the nomination is mathematically clinched. I don't think that should be the case. I think she should be treated like a Kucinich or Paul fringe candidate, because I think that is what she is at this point within the Republican Party, especially Galen, to your point about what actual Republican general election voters think.

Nikki Haley is a fringe candidate. Her views are fringe within the Republican Party. That's just the reality of it. I think it's more complicated than that. I wouldn't say that Nikki Haley's views are fringe within the Republican Party. I would just say that people like Trump enough that it's irrelevant what her views are.

I think she holds a lot of minority views within the Republican Party. I don't know if I would describe them as fringe necessarily, but within a Trumpian Republican Party, they are certainly more toward the fringe than previously. Republicans are pretty split on Ukraine aid, for example. I don't think that like funding Ukraine as a fringe position within the Republican Party. I would say that her views on like

whether or not the 2020 election was legitimate approach fringe. I mean, it's something like 20 to 30 percent of Republicans believe that the 2020 election was legitimate. So I hear what you're saying. I mean, I think of I shouldn't go into this.

I'll talk about it another time. I was about to describe fringe as like a blanket and how they're on both either sides and they don't really meet in the middle. So fringe is not really the right word we're looking for here because it's more like the middle seam. Do it. Say it. I love it. Go for it. It's like a knitting metaphor. It's amazing. I'm all in. Let's do it. So, okay, when we're talking about fringes, literally, we're talking about like the edges, right? So when I think about the fringes of like

of a blanket, they are on either side, far apart from one another. So like saying the fringe of the left and the fringe of the right, ideologically, there's a whole blanket between them. But Nikki Haley doesn't have a whole blanket between her and the center of the Democratic Party. So we need a word that's not fringe, that still gets at

the idea that they are a minority in the party, unless we're considering each party their own separate blanket, in which case it works. But then you have four fringes, two to four fringes, depending on whether it's completely fringed or whether it's just, you know, two sides.

Fringe Theory by Leah Eskar. And you heard it here first. We should do this. Let's get to work on a visualization of the party fringes. And let's find some really fabulous quilts to do it with. Hey, ABC is paying for some fabulous quilts. I'm in. All right.

With that, we're going to wrap up our Super Tuesday coverage for today. We didn't get into a lot of the specifics of Super Tuesday, which is to say down ballot races, particularly when it comes to the Senate in California and Texas and beyond. So we're just going to save all of that for Tuesday evening. So make sure to tune in and we're going to move on and talk about what else is happening in Washington. And we're going to say goodbye to our dear friend Nathaniel. Have a great rest of your day, Nathaniel. Goodbye, Galen.

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Last week, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell announced that he will be stepping down from his role effective this November. McConnell is the longest-serving party leader in the Senate's history. He has led the GOP for more than 17 years. So, in many ways, his departure marks the end of an era. McConnell ascended to the job at the beginning of the 110th Congress back in January 2007.

During the Obama years, Republicans lauded his ability to obstruct Democratic priorities, most famously blocking Merrick Garland's nomination to the Supreme Court. But then the Republican Party became more the party of Trump, and McConnell often struggled to stay in Trump's good graces.

The Republican base increasingly viewed McConnell with skepticism and even hostility. And flash forward to this past week, the percentage of Republican voters who view their party's leader in the Senate favorably sits at just 28%.

Unfavorable, 59%. So that's more than 30 points underwater with Republicans. So how did Republicans get here and where will they go next? Joining us now is Atlanta Journal-Constitution Washington correspondent Tia Mitchell. Welcome back to the podcast, Tia. Thank you for having me back.

It's always great to have you. So, you're sitting there in Congress. What's the understanding of why this happened now? First of all, it's looking like Mitch McConnell, his career as a senator is drawing to a close. You know, he's indicated he won't run again. His term, he's got just a few more years than what's likely to be his final term in the Senate. So, I think he's starting to look at the off-ramp in a succession plan.

And also, we know that just last year, there was a challenge to his leadership. Now, he was able to still remain the Republican leader of the Senate, but that discontent continues to grow. So I think this is Mitch McConnell just kind of leaving on his own.

I think there is also some personal things there. He mentioned in his announcement that, you know, his wife just lost a sister. That sister, we should note, was considerably younger. So maybe that made them just start thinking about, you know, life in general.

comes at you and you can't always plan for things and you want to kind of live every day to its fullest and not have any regrets. And we know it's been a challenge for him. So I think part of him is just like, I'm done with this. We love a Monday motivational speech from Tia. Yeah.

Jeff, Leah, what's your understanding of how this is shaking out or why it's shaking out now? Well, Donald Trump might be returning to the White House and maybe Mitch McConnell is like, I don't want to be trying to lead the Republican Party as we navigate Trump being back in the White House again.

The man's old. I would imagine he's a little tired at this point. And while power is great and all, there does tend to be a moment when maybe you've decided it's not worth it anymore. So there could be a mix of personal and political factors. And maybe he's just not sure he can even guide the Republican Party anymore.

Maybe he feels like stepping down here will be better than facing another challenge, perhaps a Trump-supported challenge to his leadership should Trump return to the White House. We've seen a couple health scares in front of reporters. He's, what, 82 now? Is that right? Yeah. I mean, it just kind of feels like a pretty traditional wind down to a career. And then I think add the Trump factor, right?

And I guess maybe the question is, if Trump does win in November, if Mitch McConnell were in a position to stay, would he be able to stay as majority leader? Like that would be a it's a big question to deal with at 82 years old. I can imagine wanting to mark a transition in leadership. He has not endorsed Donald Trump.

Does this mean that he never does? I think he'll do what, like, has the greatest political upside for the party. If that means endorsing Trump, I think we could possibly see that. If it doesn't, it means no. Then again...

When people do make a stand against Trump, traditionally, it is when they are on their way out the door. It's when they're leaving. It is like a goodbye speech. Yeah, I think, you know, there's really no intel. I will say Mitch McConnell, to his credit, has been keeping things close to the vest, including his announcement. Like there wasn't a whole lot of leaking. He went to the floor and caught a lot of people by surprise.

And so when it comes to Donald Trump, we all know there's no love lost there. I think he would rather Trump not be the nominee. He would rather Trump not become president. I don't think he would go so far as to endorse Biden, for example. Now, so the question is, is he going to remain silent or will he hold his nose, as Leah mentioned, for the sake of the party itself?

and endorse Donald Trump. And I think that is only Mitch McConnell knows the answer to that. And we probably won't know. I think

Once Trump becomes the presumptive nominee, once he gets the delegates, there will be pressure from other forces in the party on Mitch McConnell. Again, he's on his way out. There's nothing they can do to him. But I think that's when we'll once Trump becomes a presumptive nominee, that timing between then and the convention is when an endorsement is likely to happen if it happens.

I want to talk a little bit about Mitch McConnell's standing within the Republican Party because it's really been a roller coaster and maybe teaches us a little bit about the Republican Party. So just going back to 2017, not even all the way back to 2007, I'm looking at a graph from YouGov that tracks this.

His approval amongst Republican voters fluctuates a lot, and there have been three major shifts. The first is in 2017 when Republicans were trying to repeal Obamacare. So that process was messy. Trump called McConnell out on Twitter and McConnell's net favorability amongst Republicans dropped about 30 points in two months.

Then in the fall of 2018, McConnell pushed through Brett Kavanaugh's Supreme Court nomination. He got praise from Trump in public. His net favorability went up about 35 points. Then fast forward to November 2020 on the eve of the election. Republicans like McConnell. About two thirds had a favorable view of him.

But after Trump loses and starts publicly insisting that he didn't, McConnell doesn't go along. So he acknowledges that Joe Biden won in December. That's mid-December. And that's when you see the biggest swing on the graph. So it's a 55-point drop in his net favorability between Election Day and just before January 6th.

After January 6th, his numbers keep falling and they recover a little bit by the spring summer of 2021. But since then, it's been a long, gradual decline. And as I mentioned today, he's more than 30 points underwater again amongst Republicans specifically.

As this chart may suggest, an awful lot of it may have to do with Donald Trump. But what can we learn from the sort of roller coaster that McConnell has been on for the past eight years or so? I don't think you can have this conversation without talking about Donald Trump, that Donald Trump decides the direction of the party and it's

it's pretty reactive to his mood and to his statements. And it's also, I think, a reflection of how Trump's own kind of relationships with members of Congress and Republican leadership in general fluctuates. That matters in the public view. I mean, it's just like,

So many of these conversations just get back to the Republican Party right now is Trump's Republican Party. And it's hard to have any kind of conversation about what it is without explaining exactly what Trump is doing at every single turn. And I think to that point, it's personal about Trump. Like, so it's not about policy. It's not about how much Mitch McConnell has or has not helped Republicans do.

Right.

And tax reform, right? I mean, the sort of marquee legislation of Trump's presidency was in many ways sort of ushered through by Mitch McConnell. Right. And even, you know, I mean, yes, but he's still part of that old guard that some Republicans don't like because he dares to negotiate with Democrats when it comes to, like, avoiding a government shutdown or international policy and national defense. But fundamentally,

For the most part, a lot of why among Republicans is about Trump because he's criticized Trump. And Trump, therefore, has been very vocal in his criticism of Mitch McConnell, the way he talks about Mitch McConnell on social media. You know, he's used not nice language, not just about Mitch McConnell, but about his wife, things like that.

So if you're an America first MAGA Republican, you see the way Donald Trump talks about Mitch McConnell again, not acknowledging all the ways that Mitch McConnell has helped Trump carry out his agenda. But from 2020 and beyond, especially Trump and Mitch McConnell aren't vibing and therefore many Republicans loyal to Trump don't view him well. And I'd also argue that part of it is that in 2020,

Senate leadership, popular opinion, national popular opinion of Mitch McConnell doesn't really have a big impact on day-to-day life, day-to-day kind of governance. The Senate is, I think, just a much less reactive body than the House. And that kind of explains why we see some of the chaos in the House right now that we're not seeing in the Senate, just the Senate has longer terms and

represents larger swaths of people. McConnell has kind of continued the old style Republican governance

while the Republican Party has changed so much around him. Another thing that probably has led to less favorable opinions of McConnell among Republicans is not just that he represents an old guard that the party is moving away from, but he represents that old guard that President Biden is also a member of. And the fact that both of them kind of

And I think, again, Republicans who are not in the same boat as the Republicans who are in the same boat as the Republicans who are in the same boat as the Republicans who are in the same boat as the Republicans who are in the same boat as the Republicans who are in the same boat as the Republicans who are in the same boat as the Republicans who are in the same boat as the Republicans who are in the same boat as the Republicans who are in the same boat as the Republicans who are in the same boat as the Republicans who are in the same boat as the Republicans who are in the same boat as the Republicans who are in the same boat as the Republicans who are in the same boat as the Republicans who are in the same boat as the Republicans who are in the same boat as the Republicans who are in the same boat as the Republicans who are in the same boat as the Republicans who are in the same boat as the Republicans who are in the same boat as the Republicans who are in the same boat as the Republicans who are in the same boat as the Republicans who are in the same boat as the Republicans who are in the same boat as the Republicans who are in the same boat as the Republicans who are in the same boat as the Republicans who are in the same boat as the Republicans who are in the same boat as the Republicans who are in the same boat as the Republicans who are in the same boat as the Republicans who are in the same boat as the Republicans who are in the same boat as the Republicans who are in the same boat as the Republicans who are in the same boat as the Republicans who are in the same boat as the Republicans who are in the same boat as the Republicans who are in the same boat as the Republicans who are in the same boat as the Republicans who are in the same boat as the Republicans who are in the same boat as the Republicans who are in the same boat as the Republicans who are in the same boat as the Republicans who are in the same boat as the Republicans who are in the same boat as the Republicans who are in the same boat as the Republicans who are in the same boat as the Republicans who are in the same boat as the Republicans who are in the same boat as the

believe that working with Democrats in any capacity is wrong. Republicans who believe Biden is not legitimate and working with him in any capacity is wrong. Therefore, they're going to just always have an unfavorable opinion because that's what Mitch McConnell represents. Can I actually ask a question?

Do we know if Nancy Pelosi's approval rating throughout her time in leadership was as volatile as Mitch McConnell's has been under Trump? Yeah, so I have the exact same data set from YouGov in front of me on Nancy Pelosi.

She's reliably underwater. You know, her unfavorable rating is at around, fluctuates between 50 and, say, 60%. Among Democrats or among? Overall, throughout her sort of 2017 to 2023 ratings.

That's among everyone. But if you look at Democrats in particular, she is reliably popular. She's always above water. Today, I mean, she's no longer Speaker, so you would expect, I think, her favorability to go up as a sort of emerita figure within the party. But her favorability today is at 81%. But even... That's higher than I would have thought. During Trump's first two years in office...

She was at around 60% favorability with Democrats. After Democrats win the midterms and flip the House in 2018, she goes up to the mid to high 70s and even 80% by 2020. So actually, becoming an emeritus figure hasn't changed her favorability all that much. She's been very popular amongst Democrats ever since the Trump era.

which, to be fair, I think that perceptions of her changed during that time, too. Like, I think she may have gone from being a figure that at times Democrats could have been frustrated with because the policies that they wanted or whatever weren't necessarily passing or Congress in general just isn't all that popular. But then comes the Trump era and she becomes almost a symbol of the resistance and Democrats from then on view her very favorably.

Yeah. And I think one of the biggest kind of contrasts between her and a Mitch McConnell is that she didn't have someone in her own party who was equally as high profile, if not more high profile, more influential, telling fellow Democrats, hey, this lady's not.

not great, not smart, not doing a good job. We don't like her. Like, think about if Nancy Pelosi and Barack Obama or Joe Biden or even like an AOC, you know, AOC came in representing a progressive arm. And yes, she was,

She has been critical of Democratic Party leadership, but she also repeatedly fell in line, particularly in those first two years of the Biden administration, where Democrats were trying to get things done within majorities in the House and the Senate. So I think it remains to be seen, you know, if Democrats do retake control in the House or the Senate, particularly in the House, where Hakeem Jeffries is in line to become speaker.

If he's able to keep his conference in line the way Nancy Pelosi is, we know progressives are getting frustrated with the Biden administration, not to take us too far on a tangent. But the question is, do Democrats remain on one accord or manage their differences in a way that is seen as more collegial than what we're seeing in the Republican Party right now?

I think a lot of that will depend on who is president. Yeah. Well, and I mean, on the Republican side, like who does Trump endorse, right? Like who does he choose as his preferred candidate or who does he not come out against? I feel like people are forgetting like the... Remember when...

The first time McCarthy ran for speaker, like Marjorie Taylor Greene, like on the floor of the House with like Trump on the phone, like the second time, the second, the ouster, the motion to vacate the second era. Yes. The motion to vacate.

You know, like his silence was what kind of caused a change in leadership. So like, what is he? I think it's just like this data shows that like House Republicans clearly respond to Trump differently

in a pretty visceral way. Senate Republicans, in continuing to support McConnell, have been kind of defying Trump in a way that's allowed in the party because he's an establishment figure. Now what happens? That Mitch McConnell isn't there. Are they going to go with Trump's pick or are they going to do their own thing?

Well, so to that point, this is why the structure of elections is so important, as we know here at FiveThirtyEight. Of course, in order to become the leader of your party in the Senate, you just have to get a majority of your own party's votes. Whereas in the House, in order to become speaker, you have to get a majority of all the votes, right? And Democrats are always going to vote en masse against you.

But I'm sure that there would be a different speaker in the House today if Republicans just voted as their own body and all you had to do was get a majority of Republicans. And so, Tia, I'm curious. I think the Johns, John Cornyn, John Barrasso, John Thune are all sort of in the waiting for their opportunity. Cornyn has already announced his bid. What's the conventional wisdom about what happens next?

The conventional wisdom is that Trump is going to have a hand in this. And folks believe that even perhaps Senator Daines, who's currently in charge of the Republican Senate races going into November, that he may be someone who Trump likes. Rick Scott of Florida, his name has been thrown out there as well. I think the Johns, the three Johns, believe that they have power.

the experience and are kind of in the hierarchy. But to me, that almost makes it less likely they become the Republican leader, particularly John Thune. I would also say that when you're looking at November, it depends on some of these high profile Senate races that

what the conference looks like. For example, in Montana and in Ohio, there are kind of toss-up seats currently held by Democrats. If Democrats lose them, which Republican wins the primary and wins those seats will make a lot of difference. But I think in general, whoever it is, we can expect them to be less kind of institutionally minded than McConnell.

A little bit more Trump aligned than Mitch McConnell, because, again, that's just where the party the party becoming more Trumpy, more conservative. And so I would expect the next Republican leader to reflect that, because otherwise I don't think they'll be able to win a Republican only conference vote in the Senate to become leader.

Yeah, you know, it's no coincidence that the Trumpier and Trumpier turnover we've seen among Republicans in the House happened faster than in the Senate, because obviously House members have two-year terms and Senate members have six-year terms. So the sort of progression of Trump's influence in the Senate may have taken longer to sort of

But, you know, at this point, Trump's been around since 2015, 16. And here we are in 2024. And so you're getting you're getting close to sort of I mean, you're actually beyond six years for sort of a full term.

Trump-influenced era. And so obviously incumbent Republicans who run again have a good chance of winning, especially if they've sort of stayed on Trump's good side. But if they decide they're retiring or a Democrat won that seat, then a Republican flips back maybe in 2024. That Republican nominee is more likely to be a Trump affinity candidate, if you will. Thinking about Ohio, Bernie Moreno looks like maybe the most Trump-influenced

Trump aligned. He has Trump's endorsement. It's kind of a crowded three-way race in the Ohio Republican Senate primary, but if Moreno wins, I would expect him to be the most Trump aligned. And then Tim Sheehy, I actually don't remember how it's pronounced at the moment, in Montana is now the...

likely Republican nominee after Matt Rosendale decided that he wasn't going to run for Senate. And it would seem likely that he's going to be, you know, pretty standard, fair, Trump aligned Republican. So if he beats Jon Tester there and takes that Senate seat, you know, that would be another more Trump minded Republican vote in the Senate. And I don't think it's a coincidence that you saw Jon Thune endorse Trump

recently. It wasn't exactly the most gregarious, happy endorsement, but it might reflect an endorsement that says, hey, I still want to be the party leader in the Senate. So let me try to get on his good side. He may have wanted to endorse him sooner, though, to make that possible. All right. Before we wrap up today, I do want to touch on the vote last week in the Senate on IVF treatment.

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In mid-February, the Alabama Supreme Court ruled that a couple's frozen embryos that were destroyed in an accident while being stored were, quote, extra uterine children, meaning that they could pursue wrongful death lawsuits. That caused fertility clinics across the state to shut down.

The ruling has raised worries regarding legal issues for prospective parents who may want to use in vitro fertilization treatment to have children. Now, in response to the ruling late last week, Democrats made an effort to pass legislation ensuring access to IVF nationwide. The bill was blocked by Republicans in Massachusetts.

the Senate. When it comes to the polling on this, a recent Ipsos-Axios poll found that 66% of Americans oppose designating IVF embryos as children and holding those who destroy them as legally responsible. So when we consider people who also don't have an opinion, it's a pretty overwhelming majority of folks who are on that side. Tia, what happened in Congress last week?

Democrats try to pass legislation by unanimous consent that would have created federal protections for those undergoing IVF treatment or performing IVF treatment in response to this Alabama Supreme Court ruling. Republicans, it only takes one Republican or one senator, period, to object to passing something by unanimous consent.

And so, of course, there was a Republican who objected. Cindy Hyde-Smith of Mississippi, right? Yes, Cindy Hyde-Smith. And, you know, she made arguments about this is not necessary. This is a state issue. Generally speaking, when either party tries to pass something of substance by unanimous consent, it rarely happens because that's just not how substantial bills are passed here.

in the Senate. So it wasn't a surprise. It was more of a messaging thing that Democrats were trying to accomplish.

What happens next as far as legislation is concerned before we get really into the politics of this? So I think, and again, I think we should also note that even if that bill passes in the Senate, whether it's unanimous consent or just the regular calendar, it has no chance in the House right now with Republicans in control there. So again, we're talking about messaging on something that Democrats believe

do believe is important. They also know it's politically advantageous for them to keep this top of mind because the attacks on fertility and the women's right to kind of control their body and how and when they have children has been something that has been of concern ever since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade. So it's definitely part of the conversation. And I definitely think, you know, it's not just politics. There are a lot of

families that are relying on in vitro fertilization to have children or grow their families. So it is a real concern. But I don't think there's going to be a lot that happens in Washington, again, mainly because Republicans control one of the chambers. But also, there's a lot of

disagreement among Republicans on what should be done, because we can't ignore the fact that a lot of Republicans, not just at the federal level, at state levels and local levels, that Christian conservatism that is part of the Republican canon right now is all about life begins at conception. And maybe they're not getting into the weeds of what that means for IVF, but

But if you ask many Republican voters, do they think embryos should be protected as children? You'll hear a lot of them say yes. I wonder how much of this is about like the messaging around like an embryo is a baby. Like that's kind of a pro-life sentiment. Like it's something that when I think right after the announcement came down from Alabama, like Nikki Haley agreed, you know, like that. Yes, they are.

And then you get down to the science of it and it's like, oh, right. Then this has its impact on IVF. And that between...

I don't know if anyone else is. No, you know, I'm not going to make a Love is Blind reference during this conversation. You should. But don't spoil the current season. Literally, all I'm looking forward to this week is the finale on Wednesday. All I'll say is between Love is Blind season six and the last week of conversation about embryos, I am very concerned about Americans' knowledge about how babies are made. Yikes.

This is where, now I'm taking it into the politics, it's one of those questions where it starts off with here's a pro-life messaging moment that maybe before Dobbs could have kind of just been a badge. You know, like, I believe this about embryos.

Now, in a post-Roe world, that has consequences that are now kind of putting Republicans in a spotlight where there's memos going out to Republicans who are running for reelection saying, be sure to emphasize how much you support IVF. This is a really good example of how a post-Roe election is going to look different from previous elections.

Yeah, I think it's sort of two somewhat conservative things in opposition with each other, right? Conservatives are preaching the idea of having a traditional family and, like, even, I mean, the people who talk about demographic challenges and making sure that people reproduce are more, I would say, on the further right spectrum than people who are talking about this in the Senate or House. But, like,

Promoting the idea of family and having kids is a relatively conservative idea. I mean, it's not as though Democrats don't want to have kids. Democrats have lots of kids, of course. But promoting having children and promoting IVF are of a piece. But if you think that embryos are children, then that has important legal ramifications for how that process can actually work.

And obviously, we know where Americans stand on IVF. IVF is popular. And I was looking at polling on how well, how familiar Americans are with it. And a Pew Research poll conducted last September, so before this ruling came down, 42% of Americans say they have either used fertility treatments or personally know someone who has, which is a nine-point increase just from 2018. So not only are these widely known and popular, they're increasingly used by Americans.

You said that, Leah, that this could shape how politics plays out in a post-Dobbs world. When you look at issue priorities for Americans today, they don't ask specifically about IVF, but abortion just doesn't rank all that highly. So I'm curious, how does this shape politics? So, okay, my theory is that for a certain segment of the population, it probably makes more of a difference because...

It's hard to track in polling. That's generally my opinion. I don't know. I think about this quite a bit. Like in 2020, we didn't have like firm data that showed like the defund the police rhetoric was what caused Republicans to overperform expectations in the House. But like if we were looking at messaging and individual races and kind of races that should have been competitive, that was kind of the conclusion that came out of that was that this messaging hurt Democrats.

When it comes to abortion, there are signs in polling that show that it could move some voters. It doesn't show it as like a as the top issue. The top issue is the economy. But I don't know which one moves voters. So like the top issue might be the economy, but is which issue is going to change people's minds?

And I don't know if it's abortion, but it certainly felt like last cycle something was different. I mean, it seems to me that this is the kind of issue that has turnout and persuasion consequences. So for the Democratic base, they're going to obviously most base voters are going to show up at a presidential election. But I do think this is the kind of thing that reinforces abortion.

the democratic base's attitudes and even some of those democratic based voters may be unhappy with biden right now over say like an issue like gaza and i'm not saying that these are on the same plane or whatever but if you're thinking about sort of the soup of issues out there this is something that can serve as a reminder to democratic voters about like the importance of this issue and the importance of voting for their party

At the same time, you can have voters who are not happy with the economy for whatever reason. And they may say, well, you know, the economy was better under Trump.

But then they see an issue like abortion more broadly or an issue like IVF and they see Republican messaging on it. And there's a reason why Trump has been trying to stay away from this with like a 10-foot pole, right? They see it as politically troublesome. And it's the kind of thing that could persuade some voters to vote Democratic even if they aren't happy on a number of other fronts. And I think we saw that to some extent in the 2022 midterms. I don't think it was a coincidence that this was the midterm election, right?

Where a slight majority or slight plurality of voters who said they somewhat disapproved of Biden voted Democratic in the House race, which was very unlike the previous midterm elections. So to me, it's like people who aren't terribly happy with the status quo or even the current president.

but they were willing to vote for Democrats in their local races. That clearly had something to do with Dobbs. There's no doubt in my mind. I agree that abortion's not the number one issue. But there are some, particularly women voters, urban areas, abortion, I think, is a bigger issue.

But for most voters, I don't think it's the number one issue, but I think it's proven over and over again that it's a difference maker. And we also can't ignore the fact that Democrats are trying to get abortion directly, you know, constitutional amendments and protections. Now you could see maybe some initiatives for adding language, providing protection for contraception or protection for fertility services. And when these things are on the ballot,

They can help drive turnout. They can help drive just attention on elections. We know that just voter apathy, voter information can be a barrier for turnout. So if people are hearing about an election, hearing they need to show up,

And then when they go, oh, they start not just for the abortion or contraception issue that motivated them. But now that there are Democrats on the ballot, that they would be more likely to support than Republicans. And I think that's why Democrats feel good that Republicans are kind of caught flat footed on the IVF issue. But I think that's also what worries Republicans, because Democrats,

As we've already mentioned, they didn't have a good response to like, okay, so where do you stand? Because you've been saying life begins at conception and you're pro-life, but you're also saying you didn't want to harm IVF, but-

The science is not sciencing. The math is not mathing. So Republicans are caught flat footed and they know that if not specifically on the ballot, it could be specifically on the ballot. But if not specifically on the ballot, it could kind of be on the ballot in ways that are just kind of implied. I think that what you're both getting at that.

I was kind of grasping at earlier is that it's I don't think we're looking at Trump supporters in droves changing their minds. I think it's those voters who might stay home, who might vote third party because Biden's approval rating is not super strong right now, have another reason to go out and vote for the Democratic Party. And that's potentially what buffered Democrats in 2020.

22 and we can see it potentially buffer them again or actually help Biden in 2024. Yeah, to Tia's point about putting referenda on the ballot to try to juice turnout, I think there's comparisons you can probably make to Bush's reelection campaign in 2004. But I do want to say a couple more things on this. One,

I don't think we can necessarily compare the 2022 midterm effects to a general election. We know that the electorates are very different and that there's a less engaged electorate that turns out in a presidential election. And that based on New York Times polling, we can see that there's a difference in salience between.

on the issue of abortion between the folks who turned out in the midterm who are more politically engaged, more likely to be college educated and perhaps motivated by the Dobbs issue versus the broader electorate, which is more motivated by things like the economy. But nonetheless, I will say I think what's happening here is more the ability to differentiate between the two parties than anything. And that's why abortion matters, despite the fact that if you look at Gallup polling today, only 2% of Americans say that it's the most important issue.

We've talked about this before, but on the issue of the economy, voters don't look at the Democratic and Republican Party and say, well, if the Republican Party wins, I'm going to lose my job. Or if the Democratic Party wins, I'm going to lose my job. But on the issue of abortion or IVF, it's much easier to say, well, if this referendum passes or not,

This is what will change in my life. Or if Republicans have a majority in the state legislature in my state, they can pass this law. And so people understand a very literal difference in what they can or can't do as regards abortion or maybe even IVF.

when it comes to these questions, whereas things like the economy or national defense or one of the biggest concerns today in Gallup is just general leadership. Those things are a little more amorphous than something as blunt as, in this state, abortion used to be legal. Now it's not legal anymore. And so if voters could differentiate on the economy to the extent that they could differentiate on abortion,

it would dictate absolutely everything, right? Like, if you knew that if one candidate won the election, you'd lose your job, that candidate would lose in a landslide because it is, in fact, the most important thing to people. But it's just, those aren't the stakes. It makes sense what you're saying, but I think...

that what we've seen after Dobbs was overturned and states, conservative states started passing new limits on abortion, what you saw was real life examples of the stakes of those new laws. And you had people talking about threats to women with high risk pregnancies or young girls who almost were forced to have babies or the lady in Ohio who had a miscarriage at home and got arrested.

I wonder if, again, in the months to come, if that Alabama ruling gathers legs, which I also think we should note, the Alabama legislature is now passing a bill to say, no, we don't want to—

The judge said, you can go after someone if they destroy your embryo. And now they're saying, we're going to pass a state law saying, if you're getting IVF, you're protected, it's okay. I think that is to try to nullify some of this criticism so that Republicans can say, that was a state issue in Alabama, that was Alabama only, and look, their legislature is already trying to fix it. It's not a national issue for us to worry about because they don't want it to become...

Other states are falling in line with limiting IVF and then all of a sudden you have moms and dads saying, "I spent money for a treatment and now my doctor's saying they won't implant my embryos because they're scared of being sued," or "I'm in treatment and now my hopes and dreams of having children are being destroyed." You know, they don't want the stories to come out that will create the examples that motivate voters.

There is evidence that that strategy could work for Republicans, like that did work for them in, for example, in New York in 2022, like making it very clear that, you know, this is a state issue. I think with IVF, it seems like Republicans are coming out really like intentionally across the country to make this a state issue. I do wonder what other issues pop up over the next few years.

over the next, you know, six months. And I think that's where it might not be IVF, but this is a new frontier for politics in a lot of ways. This opens the door for thorny issues that are not what Republicans want to be running on or focusing on in 2024.

All right. Well, I think that is a good place to leave things for today. Thank you, Tia, Leah, and Jeff. Thank you. Thank you, Galen. Now we can go back to our love is blind viewing. Amen. If you're down to sync up on Wednesday night, I'm definitely going to be watching the finale. That's why I was like, no sport. Like even the reference you made, Leah, I don't have the context yet. I think I'm only on episode six, so I haven't got there yet. Oh yeah. You'll know when you do know, please let me know though.

Well, just a reminder to folks, we are not going to have a Love is Blind late night reaction podcast, unfortunately, but we are going to have a Tuesday late night Super Tuesday reaction and then also a State of the Union reaction later in the week. But for now, my name is Galen Druk. Tony Chow is in the control room. Our producers are Shane McKeon and Cameron Tretavian, and our intern is Jayla Everett.

You can get in touch by emailing us at podcasts at 538.com. You can also, of course, tweet us with any questions or comments. If you're a fan of the show, leave us a rating or review in the Apple Podcast Store or tell someone about us. Thanks for listening, and we will see you soon.