Chaos, Vendettas & Drama (with Jonathan Martin)
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Hey, pull up a chair. It's Hacks on Tap with David Axelrod, Robert Gibbs, and Mike Murphy. We must defend our freedom before it's too late. The stakes couldn't be higher. And given those stakes, we cannot have four years of chaos, vendettas, and drama.

You know, she had me till she started turning on chaos, vendettas, and drama. That's the story of my memoir. Well, it's certainly what will we do on this podcast without chaos? We run on that. Exactly. Exactly. But there she is, your third try at your upset special there, Mike Murphy, Nikki Haley. Officially. Yeah.

Yeah, yeah. No, and I'm not even a Haley fan. I think your Secret Service codename should be too clever by half, as I wrote in yesterday's Bulwark. But compared to Trump, go, Nikki, go. I'm all in. First of all, let's introduce the inimitable. Our fantastic guest. Unbelievable guest. Jonathan Martin. What is your title at Politico? Like, great.

grand poobah of politics. No, no, you can just call him as the political. And if we're doing plugs, I got to haunt my book here, which is now available on paperback, Murphy. There you go, on amazon.com. Any of your local bookstores, this will not pass. Which is, I think in hindsight, Alex Burns, my co-author, and I have a pretty prophetic title. See how we're sitting here. Okay, everybody got it out of the way. Let's get on with business here. Yeah, so...

The reason I wanted to play that clip is that we got a new Iowa poll yesterday. You know, Mike Murphy's been telling us for a year, nothing matters. Nothing matters until after...

The frost comes. Well, the frost is here. Indeed. It's the beginning of the beginning, Axe. Go ahead. Grind your organ that Trump can't lose. He's inevitable. Roll the tape on it, Fox. Anyway, go ahead. We have a new South Star Iowa poll out. Trump is a new Iowa poll. Trump holding up a tick, 43%. Margin. Nikki Haley has pulled even with DeSantis at 43%.

a whopping 16 points there. So, Murphy...

Why don't you just spin your dreams here and then let's have a J Mart to bring you back to earth. Yeah. Let me get out the ballpoint pens here. What I have been saying is that this thing in the early States is going to tighten and tighten and Trump is more vulnerable than old Nostra. Axelrod keeps predicting invincible Trump. And we've kind of agreed on that. I've just said it's going to happen late like primaries do. Uh,

put a gun to my head. I've always said Trump had the biggest chance, but I think there's a real chance he can have trouble in Iowa and New Hampshire and not have the stumble to the nomination. So the Iowa poll, what it says, the famous, respected

Iowa Register poll is that Nikki and Haley has gone from six points to 16 in 30 days. Now, I hate to throw the word movement around, but I will. DeSantis has dropped three points. And Trump is hanging in at the 41, 42, 43 that he generally shows. Yeah, 43 in the latest. I think he's up one point in 30 days.

So primaries move late, and there's no doubt that Haley has bubbled to the top of the non-Trump candidates. And what I wrote in the bulwark, available free online, was if the rationale of their candidacy was choose me, not Trump.

I'm the path forward for the party. They should all pull a Mike Pence. There's no reason Tim Scott is in this race. There's no reason Glenn Burgum is in this race. They've had their shot. I didn't expect him to be ahead by now, but they've all, they just, there's the only, the only movement has been Haley up and DeSantis down. So consolidate the field. If you mean what you say.

because I and the numbers in New Hampshire, I see some private polling up there that's pretty good are a little closer. So Haley is the one with the long shot to close this thing as the more than 50 percent of the voters who would prefer somebody to Trump if they can coalesce, if they all run Trump's the nominee.

So that's my theory of the race. I think it is going to tighten. Can Haley run? I think she's set up for a surge, but we need to get some of the road clutter out of there for her. And now is the beginning of the end when I think it's all going to happen. So that's the next move. And I applaud Mike Pence for having the guts to run, unlike some mentioned candidates who didn't run, and looking around figuring out, you know what? I'm not the answer. I'm getting out of the way. Yeah, we'll see where his 2% go. Go ahead, Jaymar.

The biggest takeaway from that poll to me was that the majority, or the plurality, I should say, of DeSantis' second-choice options went to Trump. Yes. Look, that's a small sub-sample, caveat, caveat. The poll itself was a pretty damn small sample. It was less than 500 people, which sort of gets to the larger challenge of polling, which is all different for a different day. But with all that said, look...

And let's say that it breaks even and half of the Santa's second choice votes would go Trump and half would go Haley. That's still a problem for Haley, right? Because Trump is still picking up votes. And I think that gets to the heart of the challenge when it comes to stopping Trump is, you know, not every single person who's somebody besides Trump is going to go to whoever the Trump alternative is that ultimately does emerge. What I think

Mike, it's not wrong for holding out some hope that this thing could change. I've covered enough Iowa and New Hampshire races to know that they do move late. I tend to think that the action may come in New Hampshire, not Iowa this time, because I'm skeptical that DeSantis would get out before Iowa. What?

If Nikki does move in Iowa, comes in second, especially a strong second, then I think you would see a scenario where DeSantis does drop out and maybe Nikki gets her head-to-head chance against Trump in New Hampshire. Listen, we should talk about DeSantis for a second because it's interesting. He ran an experiment and the experiment was, as soon as he won re-election in Florida, he said, I'm going to dive to the right.

and try and out-Trump Trump, and that's how I'm going to win the Iowa caucuses. And you know what's happened? He's actually well-liked in Iowa. He's got the most favorable personal ratings of any candidate in Iowa, and he's gone consistently down because in a choice between Trump and an imitation Trump, people take the real thing. You get the real thing.

And beyond which he looks... He's looked cravenly political doing it. And so he looks very much like a politician. And Trump, you know, looks like the authentic Trump. But as Jay Martz said, the result of him diving to the right is he's freed up for Haley, these suburban... Des Moines suburban voters. That's where she's made her move. And the small cohort of independent voters...

who are participating in the Republican caucuses. Not that small, by the way, but you're right. You're right. Haley's boxed in a little. But it does portend that she could do better in New Hampshire. The thing is that Trump, there is an openness to Trump. I mean, yes, he's at 43%, but there's a significant percentage that say they're still willing to consider him.

He is the second choice at 12%. So, you know, I...

Anything can happen, man. Anybody who predicts anything with absolute certainty is nuts in this political environment. But there's no—this sort of weakening, this sort of disintegration of Trump, it's just not happening, Mike. Well, so this is, I think, the most interesting part of it. Again, election is not tomorrow.

Now is the most intense part of the campaign. We got another debate we're going to talk about. We're going to go through December, then January. With everything going on in the world and Trump's increasingly erratic behavior, I still wonder if he'll be a 41% candidate in early January, especially if somebody else gets a media ride as being interesting. I mean, I think he'll still have a huge potential.

chunk of the vote. But I don't know. That's the loose end that we don't know the answer to. It's an interesting question you raise, whether all of what's going on in the world strengthens or weakens Trump. Right. And I don't know the answer to that question. Trump, he was asked, I guess, somewhere, or he was relating a story about a conversation he had with some unnamed foreign leader. And this is what he said. I'm not going to protect you any longer.

And I remember the head of a country stood up, said, does that mean that if Russia attacks my country, you will not be there? That's right. That's what it means. I will not protect you. Right. Just what we need in an American president. OK, so there you go. That's a Trump foreign policy. But there is this sense, you know, from my standpoint, worrisome.

is that it is often when things seem chaotic and difficult and out of control that people kind of seize on the strong man

answer. Now, there's nothing strong about being an isolationist, but, you know, that's how Trump projects. So I don't know that all this chaos, certainly in the Republican Party, I don't know that all this chaos in the world is going to hurt him. And it may be the opposite is true in a general election that people say, you know what, he's too nuts. He's too crazy. Biden may be older, but he's experienced

And I'm going to go with him. We'll see. I mean, this is a year away. It's a big loose end. What do you think, Jay Mark? I don't want to be a total nihilist here. I just don't think that external events matter for Trump's core voters. They're locked into a movement.

And the ups and downs of the news cycle or his commentary on fame is of no moment to them. They're in it for who he is and their identity is wrapped up in him. And I just.

they'll reverse engineer anything and everything he says to rationalize it. And that makes covering this obviously somewhat more stable, if less interesting. But that's the world we're dealing with. And I think part of the reason why there is

apparent fluidity in the race because there's still a pre-Trump party that exists out there that is trying to figure out who they want their candidate to be. The problem is, like, the post-Trump party already has their candidate and eventually will move them, you know? Yeah, we're going to find out. It's a fascinating question. Mike, you talk about

You know, it's the beginning of the beginning and all of that stuff. Another debate. I wonder what kind of audience that debate is actually going to have. Yeah. See, I I'm contrarian on that, too, because I think the old audience rating for debate saying is a yesteryear deal because of the digital world we live in. It's, you know, what bubbles through for a week afterward in a thousand platforms. Yeah. But, you know, my guess is of the three.

under the standard measurement, it'll be third. Because without Trump there, there's not conflict. I think a thing is creeping in here where this is sort of not that relevant anymore. I mean, you know, I do think that there is this presumption that Trump is going to be the nominee. Well, I think it's relevant to see who is going to emerge as the Trump alternative. Now, that could be the race for the silver medal. For the silver medal, yeah. Yeah, yeah. Which is worth having now if you're one of the seven dwarves.

It's a silver medal debate. And I do think, you know, we already, we talked about this last week, Haley and DeSantis are going- We got a trademark back, guys. Yeah. I know this is going to be in your freaking column before I get to say it on TV, but this is going to, you know, Haley and DeSantis are already battling it out in advertising in Iowa. I'm sure that will spill over onto the stage in this next debate, but-

I just, you know, we'll see. Right, right. It's getting interesting. And Trump's power, it seems to me, within the Republican Party...

was evident again last week in the speaker election. World's most predictable transition coming up there. The bells are ringing in Vegas. Can I make a transition without you commenting on it? Speaking of crazy Republicans, let's pivot to, and I have to admit, what a depressing outcome.

And Trump is the biggest hunk of poison that's motivating it. It's just it leaves me almost speechless if that's possible. I mean, it isn't that Trump necessarily could dictate exactly who he wanted. I mean, he wanted Jim Jordan. He didn't get Jim Jordan, but he could veto anybody he wanted. Yeah, he sure killed Emmer fast, you know, because Emmer actually voted to ratify what happened in the election. So now apparently he's the biggest traitor in town.

Poor bastard. So the Republicans lost. They lost last year. They lost the House on two issues, right? Abortion and election denial. Those were the things that killed them. And they elevated a guy who is on the far right on abortion and led the move to deny the election is now the Speaker of the House. And that speaks to...

the power of Trump. He passed the one test that Trump held higher than others, which is, will they deny the election? So that, I mean, I think that speaks to his power. Well, and also the weird dynamics of the House, of all the personal hatreds and everything. So they found the smiling seditionist at the end.

when they were exhausted enough. There's another column line for you, Jay, Mark. I love it. Just take notes, Jay, Mark. We're writing the whole thing. You know, the thing that bugs me, though, because the House Republicans deserve to get wiped out after this. They can't govern. They're only happy in the minority in the House. I'm not sure the Democrats without Pelosi are going to be any good at governing either. But if you add up all the small and medium-sized factors, you did a pretty good laundry list of them, Max.

Well, it looks like Democrats are going to take the House. The problem is the one big Godzilla of trouble is going to be at the top of the Democratic ticket. And every day that goes by, Biden's political situation gets worse, not better. So I don't know. I don't know if a million stupid politically, you know, tone deaf moves. I don't know if you guys saw the

story this morning, but Johnson is going to move the Israeli aid package, but he's attaching a rider that would pay for it by removing funding from the Internal Revenue Service. Ooh, clever.

They got him now. Yeah. So, I mean, on a very serious, serious issue, which is Israel, he is going to attach an amendment to try and hobble the IRS and going after major tax evaders. Yeah.

By the way, widening the deficit. But, I mean, it has no place there. And I think it gives you a sense of where things are going to go, J-Mart. Yeah. It also gives you a sense that he has to be caught trying. I mean, at least initially. He's got to prove right off the bat to the hardliners. I'm not going to just suddenly become Speaker of the House and give me a big office. I'm not fancifying. And give away the right thing for free.

Well, become one of those old guard Republicans like over there in the Senate, you know who I'm talking about. So he's got to sort of show that he's a tough guy. Let's see at the end of this calendar year where things actually wind up, both in terms of funding the government next year and in terms of Israel and Ukraine. Can I just make one broader point on Johnson? And that is, I don't think the Speaker of the House is remotely as important as who the nominees are.

our next year in terms of driving the election. But I will say this, that like in like Johnson, Democrats have not just somebody who you can connect to the kind of Trump election magnetism, uh, but they also have somebody who reflects all of the pre-Trump hits, Mike, that Democrats used to make on Republicans, which is he wants to get rid of entitlements. He's an extremist on, on, uh, on gay rights and abortion rights. So like in some ways, uh,

he kind of reflects the Democratic songbook of attacks in both the pre- and post-Trump era. No, it's like the Dems invented him in a laboratory. He takes every politically difficult, painful, and often stupid idea from every faction in the House and combines them into one kind of Eddie Haskell speakership. So, yeah, no, he's trouble politically. It's just I think Biden, sadly, could be the Trump card. This is the problem for Republican members of the House in swing districts.

They all voted for him. Right. Their names are on his election as speaker. They ratified a guy who represents all those positions. And that is going to be cannon fodder for the DCCC and for Democratic candidates. I agree with that. But let me get to the point I made before because it's relevant to this. Doesn't the debate over the economy slash age slash Biden and Trump over...

overshadow all that. If it was an off-year election, I'd totally agree. Overwhelmingly, the top of the ticket, Mike, is going to drive things. But let's say that you're a House Republican from Long Island or the Hudson Valley, and you just look at the laundry list of what you're running against next year, and it's like, Mike Johnson, George Santos, Donald Trump. And it's like, what have I done, God, to deserve this fate? And you're

if you're a Republican in New York, you know? Right. And I'm sure what they're asking the leadership is at the beginning of next year, give me some cover votes.

But this is not the kind of Republican leadership that believes in cover votes. So, you know, they may box in their own guys. And so they're just talk about Biden all day long. The other thing Johnson is doing, for obvious reasons, is trying to prevent the expulsion of the loathsome George Santos from Congress. And so that's one other of his initial forays into leadership.

Just before we move on to the Biden bashing you want to get to, Murphy. I have a feeling over here something from you, too. I can feel your enthusiasm for Biden. No, no, no. I mean, we'll get to that. But I want to one other attestation to Trump's power is what you mentioned before. It's this. I just couldn't sit this one out. But the Bible tells us.

But there's a time for every purpose under heaven. Traveling across the country over the past six months, I came here to say it's become clear to me this is not my time.

So there you have it. He made those remarks to the Jewish Republicans in Vegas over the weekend. Mike Pence, and we talked about this before, Mike Pence was Donald Trump's beard toward the evangelical community. He was the guy who was going to make Trump kosher, if you will, for the evangelical community. And now Trump is the choice of the evangelicals and

and Pence has gone. Why? Because he is considered a traitor for having stood up and done his constitutional duty in certifying the election or presiding over the certification of the election. I mean, Trump snuffed him out and, of course, claimed credit for it in the aftermath. Well, Pence had the French vanilla problem of, you know,

You know, he had one day where he did the right thing. So if you're Trump skeptical, he's too Trump. If you're Trump, Trump, Trump, he's too disloyal. So he was the person without a constituency.

And he never raised any money. Well, they're all related problems, but J-Mart, the evangelical thing really I found most stunning about that. No, I think that is the most striking because he certainly comes from that world, and obviously they have a –

really strong foothold in Iowa, as they've proven with Presidents Mike Huckabee and Ted Cruz. And that was the path that was going to camp out in Iowa, and he didn't even make Halloween in Iowa because the evangelicals out there are either, like I said earlier, part of the Trump movement, and nothing's going to shake that, or they're part of the Mike Murphy pre-Trump party, and they're looking for a horse still, and they convinced themselves that it just wasn't Pence.

If we're being totally honest here, I'm not sure how much of this is tied to Pence's relationship. You're throwing a wrench in our big gears here. Go ahead, though. I'm not sure. Let's say that Pence had no Trump connection, that he was the former governor of Indiana. He had never been VP, and he's running in 2024 as the former two-term governor of Indiana. I'm still not sure he has what it takes. That's right. Yeah, I agree. I agree. He's kind of anachronistic.

in the modern party. DeSantis makes a run at his face. Theoretically, Scott tried to. I mean, I kind of agree with that. He forgot my favorite piece of scripture, which is, before running, check thine unfavorable rating. Because he wasn't fresh, he wasn't new, he wasn't changed. He wasn't really anything. Is that the Old Testament? That Murphy has a special version of it. Yeah, I got my own Bible here.

It's the take Mike version. It's also the watch thine last six weeks of a primary race. But we already covered. There we go. OK, gentlemen, we will be back in a minute, but we have to pay a few bills. Let's move on to Biden, because this all this stuff we're like debating deck chairs on the Titanic. You know, if the Titanic goes down, all the little stuff.

is less worrisome. I feel bad for Biden, by the way. I'll vote for him over Trump in a New York minute. I have before. But I do think he is, and not uncommon in his trade, an incredibly selfish politician for hanging on to the nomination when the stakes are so high. Yet his political situation, tragic and ironically sad as it might be, is so weak. Yeah. Well, I'm not going to make a rebuttal of that. You know, look, I think

and probably more than you do, I think Biden has done some things that will be historically important in a positive way. You know, he has a lot of things that he can point to with pride, and had he decided to hang it up and move on, I think that he would have been carried out on a rickshaw. I think his approval rating would have gone up.

significantly. He didn't do that. And I think the reality now is that he's going to be the candidate of the Democratic Party, which is why so many Democrats are reticent about, you know, continuing to yammer, at least on the record, about this issue. But one guy who isn't

Is Dean Phillips, a congressman from New Hampshire. Yes, sucker of the week. J-Mart visited with him, has been writing about him this week. J-Mart, you saw the Phillips juggernaut launch. I did. In Concord on Friday. Did anybody show up who wasn't there for a living? He had some outside supporters and a few curious onlookers and a lot of press.

Right. Look, I think the story is less about Phillips and more about Biden in New Hampshire. I think Dean Phillips, who's an earnest, serious member of Congress, is mostly a vehicle here in this set piece. For New Hampshire to punish Biden, yeah, because the RFK can't. The story is that somebody was going to take this chance.

And it happens to be Phillips. And the chances that Biden thought he could marginalize Iowa and New Hampshire and avoid a nuisance primary in 2024 by getting rid of them. Iowa said, thank you, sir. May I have another took its punishment and faded to oblivion. New Hampshire said, hell no, we're not going anywhere. We're going to have our first primary as ever.

And so that was always going to be the case. And so Biden then said, OK, well, I'm not going to file that. My name won't be on the ballot. You can't fire me. I quit. And so now we have Dean Phillips, who is going to be on the ballot.

But of course, New Hampshire Democrats, and by the way, it's heavily Democratic state, both Democratic senators, two Democratic congressmen. They now have to get Biden a win there as a write-in candidate or Biden faces the embarrassment of, yes, losing to Dean Phillips in the New Hampshire primary. Yeah, I agree with all this, but let's run the scenario a little bit because I think when Biden zapped the, and by the way, I think Biden killing off the Iowa caucus is going to have an effect on the Republican caucus that people are missing.

because you got 160,000 people with nothing to do. But in New Hampshire, by killing it, he made it more important. But how important is it? So let's say Phillips beats Biden. There'd be a lot of screaming narrative about Biden's too old, voters agree, you know, LBJ. But then with the 12 bucks that Schmidt will leave left in the campaign account after

Steve Schmidt, you're talking about. Yeah, Steve Schmidt, the Lincoln Project slash Howard Schultz international grifter who's now hustled poor Dean Phillips into this race. Assuming there's 20 bucks left in the account, he goes to South Carolina or, you know, what happens next? And by the way, there are no delegates from New Hampshire. Here's the way it goes.

He can't be in Nevada, which is an intervening event because he missed the deadline. He goes to South Carolina. He gets crushed in South Carolina. And then Michigan is the final confrontation there. And he hopes to win in Michigan. And he'll get something there, but not enough to make history. One thing I found curious is...

Is this ad that he, this introductory ad that he's running in New Hampshire. Now, let's paint a little radio picture for our listeners here. You see Dean Phillips kind of skipping along down a non-New Hampshire, which is a more suburban town-based vibe. But he's kind of in a pretty rural area with green fields and fences on each side of him. And he's kind of walking towards you.

from a wide shot talking to you and getting a little, you know, the camera's kind of moving back on him for a while, like who's this weirdo, but he makes his pitch. Long mind walk, here it is. And here's the pitch. It is a little Pee Wee Herman-ish, but anyway, go ahead. I'm Dean Phillips, and I'm running for president of the United States of America, and I'm coming to New Hampshire to answer your questions. I love New Hampshire. I spent my summers as a kid in the White Mountains going to camp. Got to canoe the Saco River, learn how to fish, learn how to shoot a gun. Got

got to climb the presidential range, including Mount Washington. And it's also where I learned to love my country. And that's why I'm back as a candidate for president in the place where we begin, where presidential candidates stand before you, the voters, walk through the snow, listen to your dreams, hear your concerns, and most of all, discuss how we're going to work together to move to the future.

So there you have it. That's not all of it. So he learned to love America at summer camp in New Hampshire. Not even New Hampshire. He was in Maine. He was like Palin. He could see New Hampshire from his camp in Maine on the mountain. And it looks like you're praying because he seems like a nice enough guy, if a little gullible. I've got some Brooklyn Bridge stuff to sell him later.

But it looks like if a big win came along, it might knock him over. There's no strength to it, no romance, and there's no argument of why me, not Biden. Right. Well, there is one, but he won't say it directly, which is Biden's too old and he can't serve for more years. The problem is that Phillips is torn about how aggressive with the president.

Has to get that message because he does like Biden. He does fear Trump winning. And voted with him 100% of the time. So the guy is openly torn about how aggressive to go after Biden. Meanwhile, Steve Schmidt is out there taking a hammer and tongs to Biden, which obviously is a little bit of a discordant message.

Well, I think you're right that this is basically a New Hampshire-centric campaign. It's hard to see how it gets beyond there. I just think that Biden created this mess on his own. He didn't have to drop a nuclear bomb on New Hampshire. He should have known New Hampshire was never going to go quietly. And of course, they're going to keep their purse in the nation primary. So I think it's mostly a nuisance right now, but it's one of the president's makings.

What do bored New Hampshire people do who like to participate in Democratic primaries? Many of them are independents. What do they do on primary day if they're like, oh, God, I don't want to stab Joe in the back. I have no enthusiasm. This Dean guy's a clown. RFK Jr.'s crazy. They do what they did in 2000. I was there. They go vote in the Republican primary. No, they're not going to do that. They're going to vote. I think there's going to be a very organized effort that the Biden campaign and the DNC will keep overt hands off of.

to write in and they'll get right. And I think this actually more than hurting Biden, this thing may end up hurting Nikki Haley in her race because she's counting on Democrats crossing over really independent to that race. Yes. But yes, independent by definition, aren't crazy based Democrats who wake up worried about right, right. Independent leading Democrats. I think they will stay in the Democratic part of primary. Now there's a reason to, and they will

they will, some percentage of them will write Biden in. But the thing I wanted to ask you guys is, what if the opposite thing happens and Biden ends up

is winning by a substantial margin with a write-in that he doesn't have anything to do with. Well, but that would be great. But of course, he'll have something to do with it. That's the risk of these two clever by half things. All right, we're going to have a secret presidential campaign that nobody's going to know about. Well, if it's big enough to have an impact, people are going to know about it. So it won't fix his big problems, but it'll be a great tactical day for Biden. And it could happen.

And it could happen somewhat organically because who knows if the Phillips mega-canoncy can withstand the scrutiny. Yeah. Because it's a priori nuts. Okay, let's take a break right here for a word from our sponsor. We'll be right back. We'll be right back.

Let's return to the issue of the moment, and maybe for some time, which is the war that has erupted in the Middle East could expand major, major issue for the world and for the administration. Biden took a very strong stance in support of Israel after the massacre of October 7th. But

But, J. Mart, this has political implications for him. And you're sitting on a campus right now. Speak to what you're hearing from younger voters. Yeah. My wife, Betsy, and I have been lucky to have the privilege of being fellows at the Institute of Politics at Harvard, a small burgeoning school on the Charles River in Cambridge, Mass., this fall. And

The attack on Israel and the subsequent conflict between Israel and the Palestinians has struck a nerve here with Israel.

uh, undergrads, especially, uh, and there's definitely more sympathy for the Palestinian cause on this campus, uh, and on campuses across the country. Um, and you know, that is not where the leadership class of the democratic party is. And I don't just mean by it. I mean, look at the governors, the senior senators, the senior house leaders, they're all very much on the same page on this. Uh,

It's just not where folks in their 20s are. And by the way, this is really vivid, guys. When it comes to seeing the sort of campaign staffers, you see the campaign staffers for folks like Liz Warren's campaign, now Kamala Harris's former campaign, trying to circulate letters to their former candidates, Warren and Harris, right?

making the case to call for a ceasefire, 20-somethings, 30-somethings. But that's the next generation of the Democratic operative class, and in some cases, the future candidates of the party. So there is real tension inside the coalition. I don't think that necessarily changes where Biden's head is at, but I will say this.

It does make you wonder if the attacks of October 7th had happened on April 7th or March 7th. I really wonder if Biden would have more of a robust primary from the left. It's an interesting question. I'll just say that young lefty campaign workers or campus activists have commendable energy, but not always commendable insight. I think they're dead wrong.

I'll just say people tend to, you know, they say there's a lot of moral equivalence going on. You know, I saw the big thing. Oh, there's a ceasefire now where there was a ceasefire. And then they sent murder squads into slaughter civilians from infants on to 100. That was an act of war. And now Israel's fighting a war. We fought wars before, too.

And the tragedy of war is that civilians get killed. And now in the Gaza Strip, they're a weapon. Hamas literally holds them at gunpoint and puts them in places where they're hoping for casualties to create a propaganda war. So, you know, I'm not going to go through all the arguments, but they're capable of being vocal on campus and they're capable of being very wrong.

Listen, this is Hacks on Tap, and we're here to talk about the politics of the situation. I feel very strongly about it. I'm the son of a refugee from violence and chaos and anti-Semitism.

And that's how my father came, that's why my father came to the US. So, I, look, no one's been more critical than, I guess some have been more critical, but I've been deeply critical of the Netanyahu policies for a couple of decades. And I'm a very strong supporter of a two-state solution. I'm a very, I'm concerned about the,

about the Palestinian people and the treatment of the Palestinian people. But there is no justification or rationale for what we saw on October 7th. And if you live across the border from that, there is no option other than to respond. But the thing that bothers me, guys, and the thing that's really worrisome for our country is

One of the byproducts of it has been, and some of it's been on campus, is waves of anti-Semitism. On the one hand, Islamophobia. On the other, we saw a young Palestinian boy stabbed to death in Chicago. Hate is on the march here because of this. And that has to stop. That just has to stop. It's, you know, for someone...

of my background and given the history of my family to see anti-Semitism rise at an exponential rate, acts of hate and anti-Semitism in this country vary

It's up over 400% in domestic U.S. Since October 7th. Yeah, yeah, according to the ADL. And it also was, that's on top of the previous statistics that in the last year, anti-Semitism has risen before October 7th to the highest rate since 1979. So this is a real concern. This isn't what we want for our country. And so

So I'm really disturbed about this, but I want to talk about the politics of it. And the left is restive. And here's what Pramila Jayapal, the leader of the Progressive Caucus, said. And it's interesting in two respects. Let's listen to that. Hmm.

He is, I think, you know, going to be challenged to explain an issue of this moral significance to people. The American people are actually quite far away from where the president and even Congress, the majority of Congress, has been on Israel and Gaza. They support the right for Israel to defend itself, to exist, but they do not support a war crime exchanged for another war crime.

That is the progressive position. This is what these young people are saying. Now, I will say she had about 30 seconds of why she supports Biden and how proud she is of the things that he's accomplished and the progressive things that he's accomplished. So she wasn't walking away from him, which I think is interesting. And she wasn't embracing Dean Phillips and she wasn't doing any of that.

But she was articulating what you hear, Jay Mart, on campuses. Absolutely. The problem is, I think for Democrats also, that the majority of Americans don't follow foreign policy that closely. And they have kind of vague interpretations of it. And I think they filter it largely through, A, Israel is our ally, B,

in the Middle East? And B, weren't they the ones who were attacked on October 7th? Why are all these protests breaking out against the folks who were the ones that were attacked? I just think for the average American who's mostly watching the NFL on Sunday and going about their lives and paying their mortgage, they just don't follow that closely. And I think they don't totally get why there's this outrage

uh toward the people who were uh you know massacred uh a couple weeks ago that that's just not how most americans are going to be grasping yeah i i agree with that and also you know there's a luxury to this an indulgence in the left this is like take the old shea gavira t-shirts you know oh isn't she cool well i'd be more than happy to sponsor a plane load of these activists and a few of those members to go live in the west bank for a while

Check out the LBGTQ point of view they have there, living in a dictatorship held at gunpoint. You know, this is all very precious. It's a free country. She gets to have that opinion. There are more Democrats who have it, some more privately, some more publicly. And the answer is,

is have the debate and then have primaries. I'll give a plug to Democrat Majority for Israel, our friends Mark Millman and Brian Goldsmith, because let's take it to the Democratic voters and find out where they are on standing with our Democratic ally or not. You know, we have a democracy to settle these things, but I just find it so...

It's frustratingly precious in the fact that the tragedy of the response is apparently now more morally important than the tragedy of the original crime. It was pretty predictable because you knew and understood.

Hamas knew that Israel was going to respond forcefully and that there would be images of collateral damage, too. They were organized to support that. And you would freeze the Saudi-Israel normalization process, of course. Right. And they knew there would be escalation, which they may still get. And they knew there are always useful idiots in the U.S. Congress who can be manipulated. But back on the hacks point of view, guys—

let's see what happens in some of these primaries next year in the House, because Cori Bush out in St. Louis and Jamal Bowman in New York City and suburban New York City are both going to have primaries in part on this issue next year. Well deserved. But the White House clearly is sensitive to this issue because younger voters in particular are a problem for them right now. The lack of enthusiasm among younger voters. This popped up

on social media overnight. It's from Admiral John Kirby, who is the spokesperson for National Security

for the president. I am John Kirby, Strategic Communications Coordinator for the National Security Council, and I just want to spend a minute or two talking about the humanitarian situation in Gaza, which we all know is desperate. Since the early days of this conflict, we have been working closely with our counterparts in the region, Israel, Egypt, the United Nations, and others, to try to increase and accelerate the flow of food, water, medicine, fuel into Gaza for the

the Palestinian people who are in such dire need of it. That work continues. Just over the last 24 hours, some 45 trucks got in today, hopefully another 50, and the Israelis themselves have set a goal of about 100 trucks a day. Now, we know that's still not enough. It's still a trickle, but it will help alleviate some of this suffering, and we will continue to do everything we can with our partners in the region and, of course, with the UN and humanitarian aid organizations on the ground to help the innocent Palestinian people of

of Gaza. They didn't ask for this conflict, they didn't ask for this war. They're victims of Hamas as well and we're going to make sure that we don't forget their plight and their needs.

So interesting. It was like a campaign style video. Well, a jingle. Yeah, the music track. To signify the White House was not forgetting the Palestinians in Gaza. And this says to me they're concerned about a backlash among that group of voters. I don't doubt what you guys are saying. I think most Americans were horrified by what they saw on October 7th. It was an act of war, as Mike said.

And it warranted a major response. Israelis view it as an existential crisis. But these images are now coming from Gaza, and the White House is recognizing they have a political problem. And this video reflects that.

Oh, yeah. Look, they're going on offense to try – and it's a very tough thing to do. Now, the truth of it is Hamas fights an uncivilized war with human shields, terrorism, and they don't fight soldiers. They fight – try to kill anybody who's Jewish.

The Israelis are trying to fight a civilized war in an uncivilized place. But, you know, if you're into like Western civilization, I'm with the Jews. But it's hard in the modern era to do that, which is why, you know, they put their arms factories and hostages under hospitals and schools. So the Israelis are in an intangible position here.

And I think the Biden guys are doing the best they can to try to add context to all this. But in the end, Biden's doing the right thing. So, yeah.

you know i'm not going to criticize it you know i could bring it back to the primary here for a second well i think trump as i pointed out earlier has his own base that's kind of unshakable it doesn't move with events but i do think and you can call it the silver medal uh primary but i think the last month and you guys know the ebbs and flows on a primary calendar you know october the year before is really when folks in iowa new hampshire are engaged that's an important month in primaries

There's usually a debate. Things can start to move. And I think it's really hurt the non-Trumps that you've had these twin news events, one in Washington, the speaker fight, one abroad with the Middle East war. And I've totally eaten into the

to the news hole for almost the whole month. I think that's true with the caveat of Nikki's the one who's best prepared to do the world affairs and pronounce the tricky names right and everything. So there's a little edge for her, and I think you'll see her try to play that in Miami. But you're fundamentally right. You've got big stuff going on. What you'd rather have is

old, crazy, frail Trump starts to face more of a challenge. When you say that she'll play it in Miami, you're referring to the debate on the 8th in Miami, which is going to be on NBC. By the way, not NBC. Jonathan and his wife Betsy, who's co-leading his seminar at Harvard, pointed out last night that part of the deal was it would be on NBC, but not MSNBC, which is interesting. So your network, man, is blacked out, Merle.

Murphy. Well, that's because of our tough journalism, you know, as opposed to certain other town hall enabling networks. I won't mention. No, one other prediction. If Tim Scott doesn't make the debate, which is possible, I think he'll be out. He's talking about on to Iowa, get crushed there. Larry Ellison never wrote the big check.

That's why their super PAC canceled all their TV. He's got some hard dollars, but I think the end is maybe nearer there than, than the campaign PR line. You know, they did the last stand thing. We're redeploying all our staff to Iowa, which is always the beginning of the death rattle. If he, if he doesn't get into the debate, I think there's a chance that he'll wisely, he ought to fold the tent right now before being a roadkill, fold it now. And it means something, do the right thing, Tim, you're never going to be VP again.

But keep an eye on that because that could be a key part of the impact of the debate. Another one's out. Okay, let's take a break right here for a word from our sponsor. We'll be right back. We'll be right back.

One more news story before we get to our listeners. Overnight, the UAW claimed victory in the last of their negotiations with the big three automakers, won huge concessions from the automakers. Biden made a big bet.

He went and he marched with the UAW, appeared with them at the beginning of the strike, took a risk because it wasn't clear that they had an endgame. They did have an endgame, and it was a historic agreement for them. You know, we talked earlier about the primary in Michigan. You know, this is a plus for Biden. This was a win for Biden, and it underscores his...

his economic message, which is, I want a better deal for workers in this country. So I think he could benefit from that. I'm going to disagree a little bit. I think in macro ways, for exactly what you said, it's a win. He can declare a victory here.

But in Michigan politics, where I've lingered around for too many decades, it's a mixed bag. Who says from L.A.? But the – yeah. Okay, the weather's better out there. All right. No, what am I, an idiot? But I'm back there a lot, grew up there, did a bunch of successful statewide there. The auto industry is more complex than UAW.

And the wider circles are very worried. On one hand, everybody wanted to see the UAW rank and file get a raise. But the wider, the tier two and three suppliers, the executives are like, we now have labor costs that very well make us uncompetitive.

You know, the foreign makes that manufacture here are non-union, Tesla's non-union, Tesla's labor costs, and maybe they'll get a raise out of this to preempt union organizing. But they run 30 to 40, now more than 40% less. And the capital spend the big three have to do to go compete and EV revolution, retooling the plants.

is a mighty load. So there are people who think that Sean Fain won a great short-term deal for his workers, but they're going to be a third less unionized auto workers because the companies are going to get murdered. They will not be able to compete over the long run. We'll see. But that fear is not just in the executive suite. It is in the family-owned tier three suppliers. It's in the non-union companies that are part of the supply chain. So it

In Michigan, I'm not sure it's a clean win. We'll see. We'll see. But all I know is that Biden has had troubles with unionized workers. I think his participation here and actually taking a side could be helpful with those workers. And it underscores a message that he is trying to push wages up across the country.

And rather than having a race to the bottom, he's trying to push labor share up. So we'll see. I think the grift for a potent campaign spot in the Midwest acts not. First president to stand with workers on the picket line and look at the results. Here's the contract they got after the president of the United States stood with them. He puts his money where his mouth is when it comes to workers improving their quality of life, their pay, their benefits. Vote Joe Biden.

And it lays a, it sets up a contrast with Trump. Yes. So, uh, yeah, no, I think that's going to work for him. Let's hit the mail. Listener mail.

If you have a question for the Hacks, all you got to do in the old days, we'd say just email us at hacksontap at gmail.com. That's hacksontap at gmail.com. But now, in the modern era, you can call a mysterious number in Chicago that used to be a betting parlor and voter registration center. But now it is the Hacks on Tap special voicemail.

So all you got to do, if you want to leave an audio message for us, just keep it under 25 seconds. Okay, we do the bloviating around here, as Jay Mart will tell you. You just have to go to our secret phone number, which is 773-389-4471. I'll repeat it because who can remember that? 773-389-4471.

You can also put a bet on Pantry's pride in the fifth. Okay, first question from Cooper for the great Jonathan Martin. Cooper wants to know, how do you see AI affecting political campaigns as we know them? Is AI already being used? In fact, maybe X and I are AI.

I think we'll sort of get a taste of this in 2024, but I really am actually concerned about 28, 32 and beyond when this is going to get so much harder to distinguish what's what, what's not, the deep fake videos as they're called. I've seen someone moving around on Twitter and it really is tough to distinguish what's what. I just can only imagine the havoc that this is going to wreak. And by the way, guys, not just in campaigns.

But I think news and events in general, people are going to be even more cynical, less believing of what they see, uncertain of what is and is not real, war and peace, elections.

comments from famous people. It's just uncharted territory. And I think we're going to get a taste of it in 2024. But I think that only a taste. I think the worst is to come. We should point out that yesterday, amidst all this other news that superseded it, the president issued an executive order on artificial intelligence, a pretty meaty

uh thing a hundred and something pages uh that is an attempt to uh create a national strategy to deal with this which i think is really really uh important this is a

You know, the problem we have is that technology is advancing at such an exponential rate that we can't keep up with it. We can't get our arms around the impact of it. And elections are going to be affected, as are many other aspects of our lives. So it's important. Murphy...

I think we have one for you. Let me just chime in on AI for a minute if I can, because I believe that democracy is not just a system, it's a responsibility. It's the duty of each and every one of us to participate, to be informed, and to engage in the democratic process.

Our diversity is our strength and our ability to come together to solve problems, to bridge divides and build a brighter future was what makes us great. We must remember that democracy is not a given. It requires our vigilance and protection. We Democrats believe I am reading a one minute Democrat speech.

stump speech that I asked Chet GPI to make. It took it three seconds to write all that. Yes, AI is coming. It's spooky. It kind of hacks our brains, let alone deep fakes on video. So maybe we'll create a Murphy and an Axelrod bot and have them next week. We need to give people tools to cope with AI and evaluate information they're getting

But we do have responsibilities as citizens not to take at face value everything that we see and hear online. Absolutely. So let's not exonerate citizens as well. Democracy is, in fact, the responsibility of now. Murphy, Bill, who's obviously been listening, says, I've heard Murphy say several times, unless he's your neighbor...

I've heard Murphy say several times it's too early to say who will win the Republican primary. Let's say Haley wins. Then what happens with Trump? Well, thank you, Bill. You're a very wise listener. I think what I've actually tried to say is, of course, Trump's the frontrunner, but there's a chance for an upset and it'll happen late. Hedging, hedging, hedging. Axelrod, the tool of the AI conventional wisdom, scoffs at me every time. But

Let's get to your question. What if Haley wins? Well, if Haley in Jay Mart's scenario, I think is the more likely upset scenario. It's very close in Iowa. She beats him in New Hampshire. I think then she would beat him in South Carolina. I think the momentum factor would be fewer candidates in the race. The sooner that happens, the better. The question is, if Trump loses two of these,

And then goes on to a lot of states where Haley will not be particularly well organized. She'll be running on media. And some don't have the special sauce of South Carolina. She's former governor from there. So I think Trump...

the emperor has no clothes factor will then hurt him a lot and he'll be mortally wounded. He'll be crazier. But it's not certain he would not win a long slog beyond that. It's just Haley would be very much in the race and he would be wounded. But you can't automatically say he's out of it. But it would be an entirely different situation. It would be fascinating. Only because I don't want to be held accountable myself. I won't go back into the video

Or the audio tape of Mike Murphy from last spring and summer talking a lot more confidently about the status of Donald Trump. No, you're right. You're right. I'm not going to argue that. I think the anti-Trump candidates have been miraculously bad and gutless. I think Haley is the best performer in the group, and she's bubbled to the top. And now she has a shot, but it's a longer shot than it ought to be.

But anyway, I've got tape on you too, Axelrod. We have a standoff on that. I know. That's why I'm not going to call the question. Oh, inflation doesn't matter. Ratner's crazy. But anyway, we'll have our nuclear war of tape and humiliate each of us after the election. Yeah, we should have a whole session of that. No, no, we should. We should. Exactly.

Usually I turn destruction, boys. Yeah, exactly. Yeah, we can't destroy the franchise here. Now, it all depends on New Hampshire. Then I've got the upper hand on the nukes. Okay, now finally we're going to give Axe the soapbox yet again. Hang on. We're going to do one of those voicemail things from the betting line. And here you go. This is Matt. Hi, this is Matt at Seattle.

Back before Obama was elected, there was a lot of analysis over whether Americans would actually vote for a black candidate. I haven't seen that same commentary about whether the Republican electorate would actually vote for a person of color like Nikki Haley or Vivek Ramaswamy or Tim Scott. Thank you. No, it's interesting. And, you know, there is this issue of a party that has such a...

a supremacist kind of constituency within it would embrace a person of color. You know,

And Murphy, you're probably more qualified to address this within the party than I. The interesting thing about Obama's election was it was unthinkable before it happened. And once it happened, all of a sudden, nothing seems unthinkable anymore. I think if Haley, I don't see, certainly in Haley's case, I mean, Ramaswamy and Scott are going to go out early for other reasons.

But do you see Haley's Indian American...

background as a insuperable barrier to her? I mean, Trump may be an insuperable barrier, but do you think that part of that would be that she's a woman and that she is Indian American? No. I think she would beat poor old Biden like a government mule. And I don't think it would be a big... That's not the question. The question is about... You can argue that about your coffee pot. No, I don't think it would be a material factor. And by the way, Bobby Jindal...

A male, not a female, but an Indian American was elected governor of Rock Red, Louisiana, where he'd also served. She got elected governor of South Carolina. She got elected governor. I was winding up to that. My crescendo here. So, no. We'll throw the pitch, man. You know, you would find...

There'd be some cranky stuff on the internet. The media would hyperventilate over it. But fundamentally, I don't think it would be a material factor. And hooray, USA, for that. Don't think it would matter that much in a polarized country where the tribalism of Team Red and Team Blue is sort of curious today. All right. There we go. Succinct to the point. We've not quite solved the issue of whether it would be within the tribe an issue, but...

We will leave that for another day. We can take inspiration from the great Bob Dole, who once, when he was running for president, was asked about term limits. And Senator Dole wisely said, you know, I've appointed Strom Thurmond to do a commission and study that. He's going to get back to me in a few terms. So we'll get to that problem if she is nominated. We have our book club, hacksontap.com slash book club. J-Mart, what are you reading?

Well, I got a sneak peek at a book that's coming out next year, but the folks can pre-order on Amazon now. It's called The Wolves of K Street, and it's by a brother duo, Luke Mullins and Brody Mullins, who are both Washington-based journalists. And guys, they have written what I think is the authoritative history of lobbying in Washington and how a corporate lobbyist...

but took over the nation's capital. And they tell the story through a handful of really compelling characters. And if you like

Modern political history. This is a book for you. I have characters like Tommy Boggs, who was the great Democratic super lobbyist and obviously the son of of Hale Boggs and Lindy Boggs, both former congressmen from Louisiana. It's coming out in May. It's the wolves of K Street. I got a sneak peek and it's fantastic stuff.

Oh, sounds pretty good. I've been reading the Stowns War History, which I plug, but check out A Voyage for Mad Men from Peter Nichols. Nine guys in 1968 try to sail around the world and only one makes it.

great sailor story i want to recommend a new book from our friend who hopefully will join us sometime soon and your old colleague jonathan martin yeah the times how the newspaper of record survived scandal scorn and the transformation of journalism by adam nagourney one of the great political reporters in our country yes and uh he is it's a it's a follow-up on gade talisa's

classic book, The Kingdom and the Power. And I saw Talese actually blurb the book. So I highly recommend that.

Adam is one of the great political journalists and also personally a close friend and mentor. So, absolutely. Great friend of all of us. You've got to buy it. It's an incredible history. My wife's been listening to it on tape, and I'm having lunch with Adam on Friday. So, one more time, you've got to buy it. So, hopefully, he'll pick up the check for all the plugs. Yeah, absolutely. After all we've done for him right here, he has to pick up the check. There you go, Nickerney. We just moved 11 books, all right? All right. All right, guys. All right. Thank you, Jonathan Martin. J-Mart, thank you.

A pleasure, guys. Enjoyed it. Take care. We will see you soon, Murph. All right. Take care.