Deep Dive
Shownotes Transcript
Hey, pull up a chair. It's Hacks on Tap with David Axelrod, Robert Gibbs, and Mike Murphy. Hacks on Tap
I've got a whole team of zoologists searching the world for the only... In Eastern Europe, there were some illegal experiments, and I might have found one, a 300-pound crow for you to eat when Trump loses the Iowa caucus. Okay, so that was from like a long time ago. That's the time tunnel. Not that long, but go ahead. That was from Mike Murphy. I know you recognize the voice. Yes. That was you. That is not a deep fake. That's not AI. That's Mike Murphy from last spring, I think.
And I am prepared. I've cleared a spot on my table for the 300-pound crow, but I'm not convinced I'm going to have to eat it. We're not roasting one quite yet.
Quite yet. But it's following the pattern as our terrific guest, the incomparable author, Bon Vivant, Los Angelino now by Transit and New York Times, multi-decade superstar, Mr. Adam McGurney is here, author of? The Times, How the Newspaper of Records Survived Scandal, Scorn, and the Transformation of Journalism. And we want to talk about that, and we're going to talk about that. But Adam's also here, not just because he's written a terrific book.
but because he's really one of the great political writers of our time. And so we're trying to figure out one of the most unusual elections of our time, Adam. So we're calling on you to bring that. Thank you.
Your years of decades, centuries of perspective. Yeah, we all met you. Axe and I go back so far in this that I remember when you were an ink-stained wretch for USA Today. Yeah. And then you had a meteoric career. And then, of course, the New York Times, where you were pestering us with hostile questions all the time on various campaigns we both did. And you can help us unwind the great mystery, which...
of course, my podcasting partner here alluded to at the beginning, which is my prediction. And I will argue it could be coming true that Trump would have a tougher primary. Now, I know, and you know, my dear beloved friend David, as my brother were out there, toil and slave to the conventional linearist, is convinced that the
High polling right now, especially national polling, Trump will power right through. And that's not a dumb bet. But I've been saying for over a year, I think somebody may emerge and give him a race in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. And it's clearly somebody is emerging. We just don't know if they're going to emerge enough.
And that's Nikki Haley. We will do a fuller review of what you've been saying for a year after the Iowa caucuses. But clearly somebody's been working on a little tape collection with our former engineer, Jeff Fox, who's under strict instructions to burn all that crap. So, Fox, you and I have some explaining to do later. Listen, one of us is going to. Yeah.
It's going to be pro time. Although I'm the one out on a limb. You're there with the thundering herd. You know, I'm a rare beacon of insight. I would love to be out there on a limb with you. Now, Gurney, how much of a limb do you think Mike is out on here? I mean, what do you think the chances of Trump
being upended. See, he's trying to pull you into the swamp to have to eat crow after the New Hampshire and South Carolina fireworks. We're recording you too, by the way. I know, I know. It's a pretty big win, but you know, we have all seen Iowa go against what it appears to be doing. We're still in November or December here. I think it was at this time in
2004 that Howard Dean was going to win the Democratic caucus out there. So we know that Iowa could surprise. That said, you know, Trump is pretty far ahead and there's a lot of support for him. And I think the only one who I think the only one who could take him is Nikki Haley. So it's not impossible.
Mike, it's possible Mike might not have to eat crow, or David might. I forget which one of you are eating crow. We might share a crow when Vivek Ramadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamadwamad
was Nikki Haley. I mean, I think she would certainly be a really powerful general election candidate, whether she can survive in a Republican, excuse me, a Trump-dominated Republican world. Not as sure, but it's certainly possible. The paradox, of course, is the reason she'd be a strong general election candidate may
makes her a kind of iffy candidate in a Trump-dominated Republican party. I mean, she eats with a fork and knife and therefore has the ability to appeal to a broader audience.
Unless she's in front of the knife and fork haters club, then she'll go right to the fingers because I've never been a huge fan. But to be Trump, I'm literally trying to force my hand to write her a check right now, which isn't easy, but I'm all for her against Trump. And David is exactly right. It's that she would break the suicide rule.
pact the Republican Party has taken with itself. But that is a hard bond to break these days. You know, your point, Mike, I was thinking about this because we've talked about this a lot that, you know, she's a very, very talented, talented politician. And we've seen that in these debates. But she tends to slice the salami a little thin, you know, and try and have it always with
with all people. And I'm looking for this headline. There was a headline the other day that reminded me of this. And it was basically, you know, Haley here, this may be a, it's basically, she's trying to appeal to all elements of the Republican Party.
And that is an almost – that's like a game of Twister. No, Secret Service Codename is too clever by half, TCBH. So it's a problem. And what comes with the surge, as predicted, is scrutiny. And that's the enemy of the surge. But I think tactically –
Governor Kim Reynolds of Iowa, who's not a big, strong, you know, she says something, the state jumps. And I don't think endorsements at the presidential level, this isn't a county commissioner race, make all the difference. But she put a little life into DeSantis.
And so now Haley and DeSantis are killing each other on the air. Haley, in a reversal of things, has more money and more bullets. And there's some news, David, maybe you're mentioned that buttress that today. But if Haley gets knocked into third place...
DeSantis also having gotten a pretty big endorsement by one of the Christian warlords there, that will stem the momentum. She needs to really fracture Trump in South Carolina and then try to finish him off in her home state of South Carolina. Now, that said, the other endorsement –
Hat tip to our longtime listener and Iowa friend David Kochel, great old hack out there. Marlis Potma. Does that ring a bell, Adam? Way back in your Iowa? David does, but Marlis doesn't. Who? Yeah, probably the career best.
Pro-life, but strategic grassroots activist in Iowa over the last five election cycles. Walked into a Haley meeting last week or maybe the week before Thanksgiving and stood up and said, I was undecided. I'm with her. That's an interesting indicator. So, you know, we'll see. She really, you know, to what David would say before, if she is twisting herself into dots,
I was really fascinated by her abortion rights response to the last debate, which I thought was really nuanced and seemed to me to be a road for Republicans to navigate this issue. I didn't know how it would play with the Republican Party. Right. Sort of like what the states do. Right. We still don't. So that's what you're telling me now. Iowa will be a good test. Can she peel enough to get the second? So it's for her Mara Les. Mara Les is that what you're saying? Mara Les Potma. Legendary operative there.
On the other hand, Bob Vander Plaats, who's a pretty prominent evangelical. He's a Christian warlord I spoke about. Right, yeah. Yeah, endorsed DeSantis. So, you know, here's my question about Iowa, you guys. Having spent a lot of time there, having been involved in a lot of campaigns there, Murphy, you missed some of those because McCain—
Skipped it. And, uh, but, uh, organization really does matter in a caucus. It really does. And, uh, everybody tells me that, uh, you know, Haley has some momentum in terms of, uh, you know, her notoriety and people paying attention. Uh, she has very little organization on the ground, very little organization. And, uh,
The one thing that the DeSantis people, particularly their super PAC, that is spending a great deal of money on is organization. And so...
That plus Reynolds, it seems to me, gives him an edge. And I don't know that you can just on the basis of buzz make, we would not, for example, Obama would not have won the Iowa caucuses despite all the buzz and all the momentum that he had going in if he didn't also have like a huge ground game in that state. Yeah, though, I think there's a lot of conventional wisdom going on there. Oh, I remember being with
James Carville and Mary Matlin on Meet the Press back, and I had to listen to a long lecture about how—I mean, a nice lecture, because afterward Carville pulled me aside. Damn, if that guy starts running in Iowa, he'll be the nominee. Because I went out on a limb then, too, and said I thought this crazy—
light accomplished one term senator was going to beat Hillary Clinton in Iowa. And oh, no, the Clinton organization, unstoppable. I mean, I take your point. I've done a lot of caucuses. We built a better organization. That's my point. You had a better message, too, though. We did. I think you need both. I'm not suggesting that if you if if you just needed one, that DeSantis could win the caucuses. Yeah, I just Jeffro and, you know, I've talked to him about it. They're trying a novel thing with DeSantis.
Right. Now, they're all in a fistfight. The meanest war in Republican parties is between DeSantis and his own super PAC. There was a great NBC News.com story about 10 days ago. I think I retweeted it about this screaming match. We're going to create another super PAC. And I hear that from the inside. It's very bumpy. But they tried to do all the organizational stuff, the super PAC.
to save hard dollars for the campaign, which is tough to do. And all the organizational world can't drag an unlikable candidate. Now, I thought the organizational signal, and you mentioned him, and I did before, not by name, is Bob Vander Plaats, who, by the way, ran for governor himself and got beat in the primary by, you remember, Doug Gross, a regular. Yeah, my dear friend, Branstad's old chief of staff, and by the way, also a Nikki Haley caucuser.
Who got beaten in the general, but that's a story for another day. Yeah, yeah, slimy, underhanded campaign by some goon out of Chicago. We'll talk about that some other time. Avenging another race where the attorney general was defeated by a talking cow, a campaign Doug was very involved in. But...
To just land this thing, I think strategically for Nikki, maybe the organization and the governor's endorsement will push DeSantis into second, squelching the real bounce that she could really use into Iowa. I think it's pretty close. I think she was in second a few weeks ago. But the question is, you know, A, will the Governor Reynolds thing help? B,
Two, will the money and surge she's had allow her to outgun? Three, will organizational stuff make a difference now? We're particularly outside the big metro counties, which are much more like a normal primary. Will any of the 170,000 Dems or independents who voted Democrat in the last caucus, Dems and independents, will they even show up in the caucus? We got a question about that. We can talk about
Oh, great, great. And then finally, the two more debates, including probably the last one in Iowa. Will it be a magic moment for somebody? So anyway, we got a race is all I'm saying. And thank God we do or we'd be we'd be the board hacks. Yes, exactly. We should have a board. Let's elect one. But anyway, the news of the day is that Charles Koch has endorsed Nikki Haley. And that, you know, 10 years ago, that would have sent
tremors through the political world. The Koch network isn't the network that it was back then, but it does mean millions of dollars in advertising and it probably does mean some organizational resources for her at a time when she
Pretty thin, but money. Yeah, a lot of money. When she needs it. And it's also a signal to other donors that this is the game. It's another knife in DeSantis. Well, some of those donors, I mean, this is a wet streets cause rain thing a bit. It's good for Nikki because it's money, but a lot of that money had already moved to her. Some of it started with DeSantis, went to Scott.
So but it's helpful. There's no the New York Times. It kind of got it wrong, in my view, with much love for some of my reporter friends wrote the story that there's a big Koch organization. No, it's a donor party. They meet at five star resorts. Candidates come in and and pitch them. And but they're not for Trump.
And there's real money there. So she's not going to get beat on the air by anybody now between what she'd already done and this in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, which it's a good thing to have. But Iowa, it's a little late. It's been a little late now to start building up an organization if she doesn't have more money. Yes. Yes. Yes. Right, David. But money can't do it. Yes. Yes. It's the midsize counties that aren't. Remember, the Republican thing is different than the Democratic thing. It's a closed ballot deal. It's kind of like a big firehouse primary. Right.
so you don't have to stand up and talk as much. You don't have the veterinarian keeping an eye on you that you want to come to your farm at 3 in the morning. You still have to get people there. Yeah, yeah, yeah. But culturally, it's a big thing. Part of it could be turnout difference. If you have a good organization, you might find 9,000, 10,000 new people. I mean, here's the thing. She did the smart thing, which was she understood that her play was New Hampshire, and she invested her early money in New Hampshire. Right.
And then, you know, she kind of caught some tailwind and decided, I can play in Iowa. And in order to fully realize my potential in New Hampshire, I want to knock DeSantis out and be I want to get some momentum coming out of Iowa. And so she's invested a lot of money there late. But Adam, you're right. I think it's it's it's late to organize and we'll see what impact that has. But Mike, you
Your point on the fact that, you know, one other thing, either by happenstance or by, you know, you know, I always used to say, you're never as smart as you look when you win and you're never as dumb as you look when you lose. It may just be dumb luck. But because she is breaking late here, she hasn't really been scrutinized other than by DeSantis ads. She hasn't taken a lot of incoming. The question is, when does the big orange man.
decide, you know, this thing is getting to be irritating to me and I'm going to start training my guns on her. Yeah, no, they they've got a calculation to make there. Emotionally, he'll want to do it the minute he sees a single digit poll, which I think may drive him. Yeah, that's a trigger, too. I mean, Trump is all about triggers. So I think if you're for Trump, you're for him. If you're not, you're not. Can she coalesce?
I believe the majority of primary voters will go another way. It's really a 50-50 thing. And that's where DeSantis is a big problem. So he's got to go lose. And that makes her a giant killer. So she needs that second in Iowa. And I think she's in the hunt for it. But we'll see. And if she finishes third, where does that leave her?
I think she's – I've had people come out of nowhere to do third and get a pretty good run out of it. But, you know, it's not quite enough. You need the – I mean, she's trying a very hard thing. David Goliath, she needs to beat Trump. So if she beats DeSantis, she's the killer. She beats Trump and then she does it again in South Carolina, which is where –
One, he's got plenty of strength. And two, the normal New Hampshire upshed candidate runs out of gas. That's the ultimate showdown is South Carolina. Adam, where did George H.W. Bush, didn't he finish third in Iowa, was in 88? I think he did. I think you're right. There's that old rule. There's three births out of Iowa. Is that that old rule? Yes, there's three tickets out of Iowa, two out of New Hampshire. And traditionally, there's been some truth into that.
But I do think that Nikki Haley wouldn't really need to come in second. Maybe she can come in first, second to really be in a strong position to take it to the end. Maybe win a New Hampshire. I don't know. It's certainly in South Carolina.
But, you know, I mean, Iowa is not what I would call predictive. Right. I love Iowa. It's not President Santorum. Exactly. Especially in the Republican side. It basically decides losers more than winners. It's going to weed a bunch of people out. President Cruz, who beat Trump. Yeah. Yeah. Hey, so just to finish this on this point, I wonder when the ads are coming or the Trump
social media posts and so on about Haley's comments a couple of years ago when she said she would never
challenge trump because that that you know there there's a there's a locker of a treasure trove of these kind of conflicting statements that go to the point that we were all making earlier which is you know she she tends to play it a bit too cute and uh this and and flip-flop on things so i wonder if that maybe this will maybe trump's agent uh uh
Vivek Ramaswamy
which is the correct pronunciation, will take this matter up in the next debate. I hope he does, because I think it sets her up. But go ahead, Adam. I think she can reply greatly. You guys were doing ads in Iowa. I mean, wouldn't you wait till right after Christmas to come in with this? Or what do you think? Would you do it now? Well, I mean, it's to Santus who could probably, who could do it as well. Okay. No, I mean, I, listen, I would not.
I'm not sure that I would wait. The caucuses are on the 15th of January. Right. So there's not a whole lot of time. I would jam up Christmas. I'm with David. You do now? Okay. But here's the risk. Haley is an adroit performer, and she'll say, look, anybody think we have the same Trump now we had in 2016? No.
He's older. You know, and you just go with that. You know, yeah. I had to change because he's changed for the worst. Now he's the one guy by... You know, you go down the road of what she's running on. I think she'd do fine. Yeah. Yeah. Well, maybe you don't do it in the debate. I think the lesson, again, of Howard D. was that switch, that...
flow away from him, I think came in the final weeks of the caucus. It was like... Yeah, it moves really late. They land. People were paying attention and there was that whole disclosure with his radio interview. So, go ahead. Listen, first of all, campaigns do expose you and Howard... Right.
Dean, there were questions about how settled he was and, you know, the Dean screaming. Settled. I like that. But remember, Howard Dean was a, Howard Dean was sort of a lightning bolt in this whole deal. He wasn't a known quantity when the campaign began.
But then you've got a front runner in Donald Trump who, for better and worse, is very well known. He's a former president. Much harder to overtake a candidate like that than it is the race in Iowa. We're really you know, there was Howard Dean, Wesley Clark. There were, you know, John Kerry, obviously. Kerry was probably the best known of those candidates.
and ultimately ended up winning. But it was a much more wide-open kind of deal than this thing is. So, you know, we'll see. I mean, I've cleared the place for the crow, but we'll see. All right, we're going to leave for a minute to pay the power bill, and then we'll be right back. ♪
Speaking of Trump's social media posts, Mike, it was touching to me that the president at two in the morning on Thanksgiving Day took the time out to wish us all. I talk about the former president to wish us all a happy Thanksgiving with a message. And I know you were eager to share that message with. Yeah, it's an inspiring moment. Jeff, can we have some Thanksgiving music, please? This will bring us all together in our divided nation.
Donald J. Trump reached out to our country.
In a moment where we all cherish family and our national history. Happy Thanksgiving to all, including the racist and incompetent Attorney General of New York State, Latina Peekaboo James, who has let murder and violent crime flourish, all caps, and businesses flee, all caps, a radical left Trump-hating judge, a, quote, psycho, Arthur N. Gorin, who criminally, capital C, defrauded, capital D, the state of New York, and, all caps, me.
By purposely valuing my tremendous assets in a tiny fraction, a fraction of what they're worth in order to convict me of fraud before a trial or to sing any proof, all caps, and on and on and on it goes. Stone cold. Hold your ears, kids.
F***ing crazy. But it does have a positive message at the end, right? Read what he says at the end. Oh, yeah. He wrapped it up to bring us all together, the Democrats and the Justice Department, who allowed our country to go to hell and all the other radical left lunatics, communists, fascists, Marxists, Democrats, rhinos, who are seriously looking, all caps, to destroy our country. Have no fear, however. We will win, all caps, the presidential election of 2024. Ampersand, you know, new favorite.
And all caps, MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN! And three exclamation points to make sure you know he means it. Yeah, so there's your happy Thanksgiving message. Yeah, there we go. So Adam, is there a point when the race is settled, and it's Biden versus Trump, and I believe it will be, where these kinds of things get more attention and people start focusing on...
the fact that the guy has become more unhinged than even they recalled and does that or is that just baked in the cake yeah that i think that's a big question for the biden people assuming he gets nomination which i do too um i don't think it's baked in the cake i mean obviously it's baking the cake for trump supporters but i think this stuff has become background noise for now when it becomes a true contest between biden and trump again assuming that's what happens
and Trump gets more out in the public because he's not getting that much attention now except for the courts. So I think people start paying attention to this, and I think, you know, this is just speculation, but that's what I do. I think that independent voters, women voters will look at this and go, you know, Biden's kind of old, but do we really want this guy in the White House? So I think that's definitely a
It's not a killer, but it's definitely an issue where it will be a problem. I mean, Mike didn't exaggerate the tone of that message, right? That true social message. I thought I held back out of respect. Yeah, I thought that was it. Mike and Donald Trump sort of have this, they both live inside of each other's heads. So he was well prepared for this. I did a tremendous read. Tremendous. The best. Magnificent. Trump is under enormous pressure.
In these court cases, not just the criminal court cases, but the civil case in New York, which clearly bothers him, which, you know, because it could have material, it could do material damage to him, but also exposes sort of the fraudulent nature of.
of some of his enterprise or the alleged fraudulent. Yeah. So, so he's, you know, he's under a lot of pressure. I think that that is, you know, that is more and more evident in the speeches that he's making, which are becoming more and more, you know, filled with vengeance and sort of not even disguise kind of fascistic language and so on. But I don't think the country is focused on this right now, Mike. Well, I think it's down to Biden.
In a normal election, Trump is a lunatic who's getting worse. And he's a general election loser by the normal rules of gravity. The problem is the one bigger thing is fire the incumbent president, which is where the country is right now. And the Biden campaign has a certain amount of time and a very big microphone to try to change that. But they're not so good because I think Biden's campaign manager is
Joe Biden has a grip on this and is not doing such a good job. I mean, we're back to Bidenomics. You know, let's take my biggest perceived failure and put my name on it. You know, it was like new and improved Murphy COVID. Yeah. You know, it's just I'm not seeing them do what they need to do. And I think there are some people there who know what to do. But I have a feeling. Remember, this is a guy. And by the way, I'm I will happily and enthusiastically say.
defeat my inner nature and vote for Biden again over Trump. It will not be a hard call, you know, and I voted for him last time over Trump and I think he's done some really good things. So I feel for it, but again,
This is a guy who doesn't have tough general elections in his career. He was in Delaware, be the Democrat and win. He's been in a couple of primaries with a mixed result. He's not unlike for good or bad, the Clintons or Obamas of the world. He's not a general election performance oriented politician. He's come out of Democrat based politics. So he doesn't have an ear for what he needs to do, I think, to admit.
People don't want him and he's got to fix that. Let me just, I got a couple of clips here that reflect the challenge that you're pointing to and the potential opportunity, both from his Bidenomics event that he held yesterday. And I agree with everything you said about like branding a product that people hate, but let's listen to, uh,
let's listen to the first one, which is him talking about Bidenomics. And then I want to play a second bite that didn't get as much attention from that press conference that I think was actually more, more hopeful for the campaign. Because Americans gathered around their own kitchen tables for Thanksgiving dinner. That was our goal to get them a little more breathing room. And together we made progress.
You know, from turkey to air travel to tank of gas, costs went down. They went down. And if people make a lot of money, that doesn't matter a whole lot because the costs are relatively small compared to wealthy incomes. In fact, as a share of earnings this Thanksgiving, dinner was the fourth cheapest ever on record. I want you all to know that. There you go. Speaking to my horn. Speaking to the horn. Sink the Kaiser. Sink the Kaiser.
Fourth cheapest. I want to figure out the person who thought it was a great line to say this was the, as a percentage of income, this was the fourth cheapest Thanksgiving. You've heard of the gold. You've heard of the bronze. We got the zinc. I mean.
Number four. Who thinks like that? I don't know. I don't know. I'd love to put Anita Dunn in a polygraph and ask her, but don't have that ability, even with the magnificent power and reach of Hacks on Tap. But yeah, that's the problem. They got a problem, and I don't know if they have the tools to fix it.
And he might be the campaign problem that he won't let them. I wish that they would get this message. You are not going to win a referendum. People are sour on the economy right now. Trying to brand the economy with your name is wasting time. And you need to throw this into a hard comparative race as quickly as you can. Now, listen to this next clip, because he did do a little of that in the same
Let me just interject quickly before the clip, though. It's even worse than that because the one thing people like about Trump is the economy. So you're playing to Trump's one strength as well as your own biggest weakness. You're setting up the contrast Trump would love. Yeah, he's an asshole, but he could run the economy. But here's a way that but this is a Trump gave them an opportunity over the weekend. You know, I have to say, you know, the most interesting.
The most frightening moment
of the lives of anyone who worked for Donald Trump must be when they wake up in the middle of the night and pick up their phone and see what he's been up to between midnight and six online. Yeah, I think most of them are checking their bank account to see if they made another buck before this thing implodes. But while they're checking their bank account, they see this. And, you know, he sent out a clip basically saying, hey, we're going to go right back at this Obamacare thing.
which is like, you know, Waterloo for Republicans. They don't want to go back to the Obamacare thing. And the White House wisely picked up on that. And this is what Biden had to say. The plan would also cut Medicare while providing more tax giveaways to the wealthy and the biggest corporations.
And my predecessors, once again, God love them, call for cuts that could rip away health insurance for tens of millions of Americans in Medicaid. They just don't give up. But guess what?
We won't let these things happen. I mean, I have a larger theory, which is that elections are about the future. And you've got two guys who are very old running against each other. And the question is who whose eye is on the future and who's doing things to try and lay a foundation for the future and who's take us back into this dark sort of cauldron of vengeance. And on every single issue, there are
There are contrasts to be drawn, and I wouldn't miss an opportunity to draw contrasts, you know, with Trump on individual issues and on the big issue. Yeah, in the campaign dictionary, we call it offense.
Yes, exactly. Not fourth best Thanksgiving ever, so where's my award, bastards? Thank me. You owe me. Ollie is. Don't you think that's got to be Biden driving that? Yes, I do. Because who, what's saying, I mean, with all due respect, what's saying political consultant would ever say, engage the economy? You're not going to convince people the economy is doing, you're just not going to do it. You can't job on people into feeling what they don't feel. No, it is what it is, right? And also, as you said, David, like,
Obamacare was just a gift, what Trump said over whatever that was the other night. That was just it. When I saw that, I was like, oh, my God. So I don't know. Forget the economy. It's expensive. Turkeys are expensive. Gas is expensive. Just move on and talk about something else. Right, right. One last thing on Biden.
Well, speaking of cauldrons of vengeance here, careful. We're trying to pull you out. Isn't that great? That's good, Dr. Rod. Okay, then let's take a break right here, and we'll be right back. We'll be right back.
Biden was confronted by a Fox reporter over the Thanksgiving holiday. He was up in Nantucket with his family. And I just want you to hear the sequence from the reporter, because there are two things to draw from this. The oldest president in U.S. history also continues to face questions about his age, even here in Nantucket. Mr. President, are you too old to be running for reelection?
All right. So he said that's stupid in response. So first of all, let me think you said that's stupid by Jiminy. But go ahead. I want to award the Turkey of the Year Award to that Fox reporter because he introduces his his bite by saying and he even here he's being asked about his age and he was the one who asked it. Yeah. Why can't they do the obvious gag answer for Biden, which is, look, we're both old, but he's crazy.
Well, how about how about let's start with don't engage at all or come up with a better answer. But when he says that's stupid, there's like three quarters of Americans, if you believe polling, who think now that's actually a concern.
And so it makes him look oblivious and contemptuous. Cranky, which is old, too. I mean, it all starts. He's too old to handle the economy. He's cranky. You know, it just spins into a pit. They need a better answer on this age issue. And like I said, I think, you know,
And our buddy, you may know him, Saul Shore, was involved in the race with Ed Markey, Democratic media consultant. And they ran an ad from AOC in a Democratic primary. And she said something like, it's not the age of the man that matters, it's the age of his ideas.
And it was really an effective, you know, her point was very clear, which is, you know, he's got the right ideas about where we should go. And I think some variation of that is what Biden has to do here. But it's not stupid, Mr. President. This is a concern that
that people have. You need to overcome that, and you're not going to overcome it by ridiculing. Now, the Fox report deserved scorn because
Adam Nagourney, you wouldn't tolerate that if you were an editor? I don't know. Would you? Sam Donaldson used to do it. Nobody scorned him. You get to yell at the candidate when age is the biggest. He would precede it by saying, even here in Nantucket, he can't escape these questions. And then shout the question. Come on, man. That is total BS. So, Nagourney, talk about...
Talk about your book, which, first of all, let's do the title again, because it's already run the Pressman Award for the longest and best title of the year. Yes. Is it too long? No, it's great.
It is an important book. OK, not just everybody gets on here to plug their book. I mean, come on. It's a five star rating from Hacks on Tap. Who needs who needs the famous prizes? The Times, how the newspaper of record survived scandal, scorn and the transformation of journalism. Adam, when did you start working on this project?
So I signed the contract in 2016, and I guess I spent six to seven years interviewing people, going through papers and writing. It took a long time. It was a really long time. And David, I've been thinking about it since I think,
2004 for a long, long time. It's something I've wanted to do for a long time. There was a previous book about the times called The Kingdom and the Power by Gay Taliso. I see Blurred, your book. How great is that? Unbelievable. Which was an amazing book as well. So you were stepping into some big shoes there. The story, if you had started writing the story in 2004...
It would have been a completely different story than the one you ended up writing, because the real story is what was in that lengthy subhead. You kind of summed it up, which is the time survived where many, many other institutions, journalistic institutions have not.
And talk about how and why that happened. Yeah, so when I started this book, this is going to answer your question, I had no idea how it would end. Like at that point, it was really possible that the New York Times would not exist by the time I put in a manuscript or wouldn't exist in the form that we knew. And as it turned out, it figured it out. It figured out how to become a successful organization, news organization in the digital age.
And it was a long and painful process that I kind of outlined through the book. It's a very conservative small C newspaper in terms of people, not everybody, but a lot of people. Tradition is actually a better word. Yeah, as a business, a family business, traditionally. That's right. And resisted to change. So there are people, you'll see people in the book who years ago were like, no one's ever going to read the newspaper on a black box, I think an old executive editor said.
But there were a couple of people over the years that saw the future. And one of them actually was the main publisher during the main part of the book, Arthur Salzberger Jr., who I think both you guys probably met over the years. And he's a former wire guy. He used to work for the Associated Press. He didn't have the kind of affinity to morning newspapers with deadlines and blah, blah, blah, all that stuff that some of us grew up with. So he was like when a story is done, post it.
And the other thing was, which was a radical idea back then. I remember it was all, well, we're going to sweat this out till tomorrow's news cycle. We have a little breathing room here. That's gone. There's no breathing room anymore. There's no breathing room. You got the story posted. As you guys probably know, that was a hard cultural change in the newspaper. The other thing that Salzberger used to say was he was a Star Trek fan. He used to say is I don't care. We have to beam the information into their head. We're going to get into them.
And I think that kind of stuff sets the mindset for the transformation that we see. And there's a lot to write about in this book, but that's the big narrative theme. And it has a happy ending.
in a way. For the times, the question is, does it have any, can you duplicate that strategy or is it a kind of a unique, are they in a unique position? So I'm going to argue, this is a little bit beyond the end of my book, but I still have opinions, this might not surprise you. I think it's going to be really- For the epilogue and the paperback edition. That's correct, which I'm working on. And the ice show. Yeah.
You know, I don't know how many... The ice show is the best part. I don't know how... I mean, I think, look at the experience of the Washington Post, which is a terrific world-class newspaper. Yes, it is. Terrific. That is struggling now to sort of, I would say, they might...
dismiss this kind of formulation to replicate the model in New York times to show that people will be willing to pay for more than one subscription for a newspaper. I'm not sure that that many people are right. It's a bad thing that people might get to the people on this, on this podcast by no, it's like a cable provider streaming. Yeah. Yeah. Multi-channel or let me plug something about the book because I want to talk to our non-communist listener or two.
You're thinking, oh, yeah, this is a history of big left-wing rag that's out to get Republicans. This book, one, the granular detail is great. He dipped his knit tie into the coffee and thought about Rwanda. It's got microscopic detail, which makes it a fun read. It's almost like a movie. But more importantly, this is a great business book.
If I ran a Detroit three car company, I would order all my top execs to read this thing because it's about how a conservative, essentially family business, so it is publicly traded, but with the culture of family business with patriarchs, faced a revolution and not only survived it, but prospered, which happens to about one out of 30 big businesses when this happens.
So this is, you know, the New York Times stuff is important. It's an important institution. I've got, I used to call, Adam, you remember, and complain all the time about what kind of left-wing crap in a campaign. Your premise is always Democratic. You don't have a Republican primary voter on the payroll there, except in the circulation department, moving heaven and hell. But as a business story goes,
about survival and strategy and company culture. It is a vital read. So anybody who's in an industry, which is almost everything now with digital commerce undergoing revolution, read this book because it's a survival guide to something that is much more likely to wipe you out in the next five to 10 years than let you do well. Yeah. Thank you. I'm
sitting here in Chicago watching the life being squeezed out of the newspaper at which I was reared, not just which I read, but where I worked.
the Chicago Tribune, uh, and all across this country, we've seen the decline of local journalism, uh, platforms, uh, as the, as, as the internet destroyed the base of, uh, of newspaper revenues. And, you know, that has implications for democracy, Adam, uh,
So the time story is a happy story. The rest of the story is very much up in the air as to how local news gets covered in this country today.
uh in a digital age and i don't think anybody's really fully cracked that code yet yeah i'm not even sure it's up in the air i think it's as you said in chicago and cities across the country small communities these newspapers are just dying or cutting newsrooms like look at that right you're cutting newsrooms like crazy and it has a huge cost in terms of coverage of state houses and
city halls, local police departments. It's a big, big deal. It also helps nationalize our politics because people aren't getting local coverage. That's a great point. That's right. And we've, you know, one of the business decisions that the newspaper Times made was to become a national and now an international newspaper, right? So, I mean, I think last I checked, the New York Times has more subscribers in California than it does in New York, right? And they're expanding, expanding, expanding, which means they're less focused on
New York or Chicago or Boston. Right. And it's a big loss. I don't know what the answer to that is. I know that people are really struggling with it and try to figure it out, but it's really a little bit alarming. And they went lifestyle, which was, you know, controversial, but now wire cutter and there's a lot of stuff there. I mean, I'll never forget the best job to go back to my favorite theme.
Remember the old Ron Howard picture, The Paper, which was kind of about the scrappy tabloids? They have Spalding Gray playing the editor of their fictional New York Times. And the big headline is Nepal premier will not resign. And that was kind of the old New York Times. I remember when I was in the editorial board there with McCain in 2000.
And McCain and I are in a waiting room looking at all the oak and everything, and it's all super polite. And I said, John, I hope you're ready. You know they conduct these things in French, the language of civilized diplomacy. They almost did. They almost switched into it. So the Times has allowed itself to evolve to have wider appeal, right?
Which has made it such a digital powerhouse in podcasting. They've done that well. So anyway, it's a very instructive and important book. I had my own experience with a presidential endorsement session at the Times with Obama in 2008.
and eight, which I, Adam probably knows, but I won't share, uh, here, but, uh, Adam, when you took this on, when you took this on, you work at the New York times. Yeah, that's right.
You still work there. Yes. Now that they've read it. We'll check after this podcast. Exactly. We've ruined many careers, Adam. Don't worry about it. You could be a professional hack. Talk about the pressures of writing about the institution. Now, it was—Gay Talese was gone from the Times by the time— Gay Talese left when he wrote his book. Yeah. And I—
I thought a lot about whether to leave for all the obvious reasons. I decided to stay partly because I'm not sure I could have pulled off
writing a book like this financially if I didn't keep working there. The way I dealt with this- Plus you love working for the Times. I love working for the Times. I spent my whole life wanting to work there. So they was, you're right, that would have been really painful. The book is focused on, almost exclusively, on people who are gone, right? All the players with two exceptions have retired or died. I mean, they're just gone. So it's a book about history. I think that if I was writing in depth about
post-2016, I think it would have been really complicated. Like, to go into the office and see people who I just wrote about skeptically or meanly would have been really uncomfortable. But generally speaking, with two exceptions, which I'll tell you, everyone I write about or look at has retired or moved on, which...
helps in terms of my detachment. Not as a result of what you wrote, right? No, hopefully not. But also like, David, as you know, when you talk to people about their past, they're more likely to be candid and reflective. And also I had access to all kinds of documents and papers
going back 40 years, that were, in my opinion, essential to telling the story. And that's much more difficult post-2016, both because of email, there's less documents, and because people aren't going to share them. So it's complicated. I write about, in the book, the earlier stages of the career of Arthur Greg Sulzberger, who is now the publisher. I don't really talk about him as publisher. I think that's a great book to do at some point. And the other one is Carolyn Ryan, who I think you know, who is now a
magazine editor who is you know one of the players in some of the stories I talk about but not
that sort of central to the news show that I write about at the time. She is now. And a political editor of the Times-The Old Days I never hated. I always thought she was very fair. Yeah. And that's saying something, yeah. Yeah, that's high praise, yeah. Well, listen, it's a great book. I know how much you labored to make it such, and you brought to it the same degree of assiduous reporting that you've brought to your
political writing, sometimes to my delight and sometimes to my complete despair. We'll have to get the Clinton guys on. They'll do a three-hour episode about all that. But go out and buy it. What's the title one more time? It's called The Times, How the Newspaper Records Survive Scandal, Scorn,
and the transformation of journalism. I'll say one thing in defense. I know it's really long, but it really does capture the subtitle. It does. Really does. That's it. Like, someone's asked me what the book's about. That's it. Murphy and I would tell you that a good tagline
is one that perfectly distills the message. Oh, okay. And so that does perfectly distill the message of this book. So if that title, brilliant as it is, is too long, hey, don't worry about it. Just go to hacksontap.com slash book club, one word, book club. And you've got all the great books that we love there, led by this wonderful tome from Adam McGurney. Okay, let's take a break right here for a word from our sponsor. We'll be right back.
If you have a question for the hacks, all you have to do is...
Email us at hacksontap at gmail.com, hacksontap at gmail.com. But if you're too damn lazy to do that, we now have a call-in number. And I'm going to give the number to you. It's a little hard, so we're going to do it twice. And I'm going to use this moment to show off my newly learned skills of ventriloquism. I am now 3-2-1 drinking a glass of water. Glug, glug, glug. 773-389-446.
773-389-4471. See, there you go. I'll repeat it because who can remember that? 773-389-4471. All right, great. We got the low bid on the number clearly. Was that AI, Mike? That sounded like AI. Yeah, it was. I've been replaced years ago. And the AI keeps saying, watch Haley.
Don't make a long speech. That's Axelrod and my job. We had to fire the AI because last spring the AI was saying Trump is fading. This thing is falling apart. So we got rid of him and we got the old coot back here instead.
So anyway, wisdom, wisdom. All right. So give us about a 20 second message. We do the bloviating. So keep it short and mention your name so we can give you credit. So just leave it on the voicemail there at the off track betting parlor in Chicago that we run this place out of. All right. We now have our famous mailbag. Mike Carey, a lifelong Iowa Democrat, has a question for you.
Thanks, guys.
Love the show. Well, thank you, Carrie. Thank you for listening and for that excellent question. So you are representative of what I think is the biggest missed story so far of the Iowa caucus. As you know, as an Iowan, it's culturally important there because Iowa has a huge voice in this. And we're at a critical time where democracy is at stake. So
There are 170,000 Iowans like you who voted, Democrats and independents who decided to be in the Democratic contest who voted in the last caucus. But now the caucus has been canceled for, in my view, silly reasons.
So you're used to getting out and making your voice heard. I would encourage you to do it again. If you're an independent, you can go to the caucus. You can also go online and become a Republican for a few weeks. Believe me, it won't kill you. I've been voting Democrat a bit now, and I'm doing just fine. So I would encourage you to follow your instincts and vote for democracy. And, you know, I would vote for Haley as the best chance to stop Trump. And again, I'm not crazy for Haley. I know her. I think she's too cynical. But compared to Trump, she's Gandhi.
So I would be a patriot. You can always go back in the general election and vote, you know, your side or who you want to win. But Iowa should not be muted. And there are 170,000 good Iowa Democrats and independents who I think owe the country participation. So I would encourage you to do that online.
This isn't the big unwritten story of the Iowa caucuses yet, but it may be after the Iowa caucuses because the history of this is that there's very little crossover. But as you point out, there also was a there was a Democratic nominating. There was there were Democratic caucuses as well to compete. So it'll be interesting to watch the place where there is democracy.
A history of independent voters voting in one primary or the other is in New Hampshire. And Mike, I was thinking about this the other day because you were there. I'm thinking about this bill of goods that poor Dean Phillips was sold to get into the race. In 2000, Bill Bradley was running against Al Gore. He was counting on a win in 2000.
New Hampshire. And the Republican campaign that you ran there became so compelling for John McCain that the independents flowed into the Republican primary to vote for McCain. And Gore beat Bradley in the—and remember, you and Bradley had a debate.
Yeah, which I think ended up helping helping McCain. So it there'll be ancillary effects in in New Hampshire of crossover voting. OK, I've got one for Adam Nagourney from Ari.
who says, I've seen multiple polls showing that younger voters widely disapprove of Biden's handling of the Israel-Palestine conflict and his overall approval rating has seemingly suffered as a result. How much of a long-term impact do you think that this conflict will have? And how much should Biden be worrying about this conflict potentially lowering turnout among younger progressive voters?
That's a really good question. Thank you, Ari, for it. You know, it's an issue. It's one of the many problems that I think President Biden has. On the other hand, at some point, it's going to become a comparison. And I'm not sure there's going to be that much of a difference between President Biden and former President Trump on this.
Israel and backing Israel during this. So once the election becomes a choice, it's less of a factor. The one caveat I would add here is that generally one of the challenges that Biden has here, and I think largely because of his age, is lack of enthusiasm among younger voters. I think that's really clear. And I think he needs to deal with it if he wants to win next November. This is just one part of it. And I'm not even sure this is the most serious part of it that he's facing.
Again, because elections are choices. This is one where the comparative is really, really important. The contrast between Biden and Trump. I mean, just think about what Trump would be telling Bibi Netanyahu now, where Biden has been very, very instrumental in pushing for these strategic pauses, in pushing for these hostage releases, in pushing for humanitarian aid. I suspect because this
This is would follow his pattern. Trump would have just given Bibi Netanyahu a green light and would not have pressured him. Right. And would not have been a useful interlocutor when it came to trying to deal with Trump.
negotiations to get these hostages out. Hey, Murphy, you have one for me? I do. I do. From the amazing and insightful Lucci. And I'm going to do this one Carnac style after the old Johnny Carson Tonight Show. All right, here it is. I'm holding the card. Murphy's references are all from the 60s and 70s, but go ahead. I haven't bought a Carnac in 30 years.
Well, I want the president to understand them. I should really go back to the Dumont Network in vaudeville. Yeah, Clarence the Talking Mule, Mr. President, that's communicating. All right, I've got the card in my forehead. The answer, more Gina Raimundo. And here's the question from Lucci. Instead of campaigning for a Biden presidency in 2024, why not campaign for a Democratic administration like they do in the parliamentary governments like in the United Kingdom? Right.
Remove Biden from the narrative, since it's his age that people have an issue with, and the fact is, if something happens to him, a Democratic administration will continue. Would that work for him?
You know, I know what Mike's referring to. He's been arguing, and I think compellingly, that the Biden campaign should be using surrogates and the cabinet much more aggressively than they have so far. And I agree with that because he's not the best messenger. But
We don't have a system. We don't have a parliamentary system. Parties generally are defined by their by their leader, the presidential candidate, not the other way around. And so, you know, there is limited utility to that. Again, I think that the that the most important thing is to really give opportunity.
give prominence to not just the things that Biden has fought for and is fighting for, but the things that Trump has fought for, which is primarily Trump and what he would represent and really strike a very, very strong contrast, because this will be as stark a choice as we've ever faced. It is a choice between two older men.
And the question is, who has his eye on the future and who represents fundamental American values and who doesn't? I agree with that on the big picture. I just think they've got stars. They got Mitch Landrieu. They got Pete Buttigieg. I think the Biden people are
In and out, Mike, in and out of the administration. You've got all these governors who are great, compelling. And by the way, they're not being used. They're not being used. No, I think by design, because I think the Biden guys think, well, we'll look old with all these young stars running around. I'll give you lost the old battle. I agree with you on the big contrast. I'd say one more thing. One of the great old slogans in advertising is don't sell the drill, sell the hole it makes.
What are the two outcomes? What's life going to be like a year into Trump presidency versus a Biden one? What do you get? Move the spotlight to your life and whose side people are on and away from who's older and crazier because they're going to lose the old thing. Yeah, whose side people are on, I think, is a really important contrast. And that work, you know, that that that was interesting.
How Obama won in 2012. I think it's how Biden can win. Well, and it's easier because it's pre-baked. For all Biden's problems, and he has many, it's easy to convince people that it is true that Trump is on his own side and nobody else's. And Trump makes that case every day. So, bottle it. They should have a Manhattan Project going on right now to really, really drill deep into the conservatives.
concerns that people have about yeah they have manhattans all right they're drinking them every day looking at the polling numbers i don't i think the project part is where they're having trouble but with that a huge thank you to old fashions man i didn't know that they were drinking manhattans hey adam nagourney it's such a pleasure to be with you and to our listeners
Adam, who is out on the West Coast for The New York Times, is also going to be covering this campaign and providing sort of perspective pieces on this campaign based on the experience of having covered more presidential elections than many.
And great wisdom. Yeah, I think I met you on the first Dole campaign in 88. So we're dealing with seasoned veteran here. I think that's right. I think it was Humphrey Nixon for me. I think it was Eisenhower. You were doing Stevenson, that Illinois guy. Yeah, it was John Adams for President Biden. But ha ha, here all week.
Always great to see you, brother, and come back again. Thank you, Jed. And great good luck with the wonderful book you've written. Tremendous book. Lessons on every dimension. All right. Take care, everybody. I'll see you, Axe. Take care, Adam. Okay. See you next week. Bye-bye, everybody. Bye-bye. Bye-bye. Bye-bye.