PDB Situation Report | June 7th, 2025: Inside Ukraine’s Drone Strike On Russia & Clan Militias Target Hamas
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Welcome to the PDB Situation Report. I'm Mike Baker. Your eyes and ears on the world stage. Let's get briefed.

New details are emerging about a drone strike deep inside Russia that damaged multiple long-range Russian bombers. Now, Ukraine says the operation took some 18 months to plan and may have utilized artificial intelligence. Ryan McBeth, intelligence analyst and weapons expert and all-around smart guy, gives us his insight into the attack and the fallout.

Later in the show, a quiet rebellion is taking shape in Gaza. This is a very interesting situation. Israel is arming a Klan-backed militia to challenge Hamas, and a new aid group is threatening Hamas' grip on power. Joe Drozman of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies joins us for more on that.

But first, today's PDB Spotlight. Last Sunday, Ukraine pulled off a bold strike deep inside Russian territory, now damaging several long-range strategic bombers in one of the war's most complex drone and intelligence operations yet.

The attack used modified shipping containers to launch over 100 drones, possibly guided by artificial intelligence. The goal? Well, the goal was to strike at the heart of Russia's long-range bomber fleet. These are planes which have been regularly used to launch missile attacks on Ukrainian cities and civilians. It's a dramatic shift in modern warfare and a glimpse into what the future might look like on the battlefield.

Joining us now is Ryan McBeth. He's an intelligence analyst, a weapons expert, an all-around smart guy, a friend of the show, by the way, and the author of a really great novel. It's called The Wind Machine. The road to hell is paved with intervention. And that's available on Amazon. Ryan, thank you, as always, for joining us here on The Situation Report. Thank you so much for inviting me. It's always a pleasure.

Okay, give me your top line take on this Ukrainian drone assault on the Russian strategic bombers.

I've often said you need to create a dilemma. You've got problems for your adversary. A problem has one or more solutions. A dilemma has two or more solutions, each of which are equally bad. And in this case, by Ukraine taking out these Russian bombers, it's going to force Russia to do a couple of things.

Those bombers were used to launch cruise missiles toward Ukraine. And now Russia has fewer of those platforms to work with. So that means they have a couple of options, all of which are bad. They can move those bombers constantly to avoid an attack like this ever happening again. That's a bad option because it creates crew fatigue, it creates stress on the airframe, and you're not able to use your assets as much as you'd like to.

Option two is to launch land-based cruise missiles or sea-based cruise missiles. Now, those are only going to come from a couple of directions. If they're from the sea, it's going to be from the Black Sea, Sea of Azov. If it's from the land, it will probably be from Russian-occupied territory. It won't come from Belarus. So that narrows down the

windows that a missile can enter, and it makes it easier for Ukraine to target and destroy those missiles. So that's a major problem for Russia moving forward. Now, let's talk about the damage done, right? There have been conflicting reports. Obviously, Ukrainian military is saying one thing, the Russians are saying something else. There's US and allied estimates seem to be somewhere in the middle. What's your insight into what the actual damage has been?

We know that between 10 and 13 strategic bombers were destroyed. Now, damage could be even greater, damage always is, but the real issue is now you have fewer strategic bombers that can execute their mission. At any given time, between one-third to maybe 50% of any air asset is available.

Now, that's because these aircraft need to be maintained. They need to have their oil changed. They need to have their services done, performed on those aircraft. Now, you can rush all your maintainers in and surge those aircraft, but you can only do that for a certain amount of time. You have a finite number of maintainers, and the airframes still need certain kinds of service life maintenance for a number of hours flown.

So this means Russia has to work their bombers harder

And that brings down their sortie rate. So even if Ukraine claimed 40 bombers were hit, even if 40 bombers weren't hit, it's going to cause more stress on the airframes. It's going to cause more maintenance headaches. And remember, these bombers aren't manufactured anymore. So you're grabbing parts from other bombers or you have to special order these parts. This makes it even more difficult to keep them in the air.

Okay. So let's start from the beginning. Before this attack, what sort of numbers were we talking about? How many of these? I mean, we're talking about TU-95s, TU-22s. What was that inventory like for the Russian military?

there's roughly i believe about 40 42 of each type uh could be up into the 50s and again that depends on how many were flying and how many are considered wind chimes right these are vehicles that have been parked and pulled for parts right so you could say roughly probably about 40 of 45 of each type currently flying okay so about 80 in total

Again, we're simplifying this a little bit, but about 80 in total of the strategic long-range bombers that we're discussing. Are all of those, from your understanding, were they all nuclear capable?

That's actually an excellent question. I don't have that information. That's actually information that we probably haven't had for about 10 years since inspectors haven't been let into each country, I believe in about roughly 10 years or so.

I know that the United States has eliminated the B-1 platform as a strategic nuclear bomber. I believe some of our B-52s are no longer nuclear capable, and that was due to comply with treaties. So I'm not sure whether all these bombers are nuclear capable or not. And again, to pick up on a point you made just a short while ago, these platforms are not

currently being built, right? They don't have a production capability to replace these, at least at the present time. That's absolutely correct and it's kind of like saying like, well, we don't have the production capability to build a new B-52.

and we have plenty of them. We have enough for our needs currently, and why would we build a new B-52? Russia wouldn't want to build a new TU-95. They do have some of the newer T-160 Blackjacks in production. I believe the latest one was built in 2022. It rolled off the assembly line. I believe they have 10 more on order. Whether or

those are going to go through or not, that's a big open question. They certainly need those platforms to launch cruise missiles from, but it also seems like the Su-34 is a perfectly good vehicle for launching glide bombs, and those seem to be causing an enormous amount of destruction, at least in the Kyrgyzstan area.

The Ukrainian military has made, or the SBU has also made a lot of noise about their success hitting what's known as the 850. Talk to me about that, if you could.

So the A-50 is what's called an AWACS plane, airborne warning and control plane. These planes basically fly above the battlefield. They loiter in racetrack circles and they use powerful radar and sensors to look for enemy aircraft, enemy missiles. Think of them like the conductor in a symphony of death.

They're very similar to the American E-3 Sentries in the Air Force or the E-2 Hawkeyes in the Navy. Now, from what I understand, Russia only has six of these AN-50s remaining.

The AN-50s that may or may not have been destroyed, they might have been wind chimes themselves. I believe one of the AN-50s that we saw drone footage of didn't have any engines, which would indicate that that plane might be being used for parts or was left up as a decoy. Okay. And my understanding is over the past three years, the Ukraine has had some success in taking out, what, two or three of those A-50s?

I believe they have at least one A-50, although I'm not entirely sure exactly how they did that. That is shrouded in a little bit of mystery. Yeah. No, I mean, the reason why we're talking about that, I mean, for the viewer's benefit is, look, there is a limited inventory with the Russian Air Force and they are enormously expensive and they don't produce them anymore. So then that begs the question, if that leaves a gap,

a significant gap in their capabilities, how do they fill that? What do they do? I mean, do they have any replacement at this point?

They don't have a replacement. Now, what Russia is very good at is ground search radar, and there's a very simple reason for that. Back in the 1950s, 1960s, Russia just couldn't produce the microchips that America could produce. They weren't very good at miniaturization. In fact, their whole idea was to copy American innovations. So usually Russian chip innovations were about 10 years behind. And so what Russia decided to do

was invest a lot of their computer processing power into radar stations and surface-to-air missile installations because it didn't really matter whether you had miniaturization when you were in a van on the ground. That meant that search radars for aircraft were a lot less advanced, and typically they used guidance from ground control, so ground control would tell these search radars, or the ground control would tell these fighter aircraft where to go.

So, Russia might be able to compensate by utilizing their ground radar a little more extensively than they do now. They also are very good at surface-to-air missile coverage. They still have the S-400, the S-300. There's an extensive network close to the border of Russia with these systems. So, Russia might be able to take that advantage.

over or Russia might be able to use those radars to kind of fill in those gaps but just remember if an aircraft is down roughly one third to one half of its life and now there's five or six an50s left that means that Russia can only fly maybe two at a time if they're lucky on a good day and that could cause a gap in coverage

All right. Look, what I'd like to do is talk about the operational aspects of this attack, right? We can look at the mechanics of how it was carried out and what it may mean. And also, there have been some reports about the use of artificial intelligence as part of this. But before we do that, Ryan, what we need to do is have you stay right where you are. Don't go anywhere. Because as you know, we have some terrific sponsors. We need to take a quick break. And

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Welcome back to the PDB Situation Report. Joining me once again is Ryan McBeth. Now, you can check him out at Substack. I hear that's quite the thing. At ryanmcbeth.substack.com. He's also got a great YouTube channel. I recommend you check that out after you finish watching the Situation Report, of course. You can find him on YouTube at Ryan McBeth Program. Ryan, thanks very much for sticking around. Let's talk about the actual...

carrying out of this rather incredible strike by the Ukrainian forces, by the SPU. The SPU seems to have taken, obviously, the lead on this. Tell me what you know about how they carried this off.

From what we understand, they either somehow smuggled drones inside of, I've heard three different things. I've heard shipping containers, I've heard sheds, and I've heard manufactured housing. Somehow they manufactured these drones, placed them inside of these, let's just call them shipping containers for now, it's easy enough, placed them on the top in a false roof,

Then they paid Russian truck drivers to drive these containers to certain points that were at least 7 to 10 kilometers away from Russian air bases. They were told to stop. The tops opened up. The drones flew out. Now, apparently, these drones were controlled from inside of Ukraine. And from what I understand, that was done over the Russian cellular network.

And the app Telegram, I'm sure you're familiar with the Telegram app, that was used to provide a video feed for drone operators to actually fly these drones over to these bombers and detonate their payloads. Now, what the reporting is saying, and what the SBU is saying, is that

They actually carried out the logistics of this were carried out inside Russia. In other words, it's not like they manufactured these concealment devices, again, whether it was mobile homes or cargo containers or sheds, not your typical use for a shed, but that they did that inside Russia, which makes it even more astounding.

That might certainly be the case. We might not know the truth for a while. I mean, this could have been one of those things where the drones were manufactured in Ukraine, the drones were sent through transshippers until they got to Russia and they met up with their...

housing or the sheds inside of Russia, the drones are placed inside, using agents that were already inside Russia or via Russian sympathizers. That's one of those things that will eventually come out. But the fact is that they did it. And now what's kind of scary is that it certainly means that any airbase anywhere in the world could be subject to some sort of attack like this.

It's reminiscent of the Mossad Hezbollah pager operation in terms of complexity and the need to carry it out in a very hostile environment, the need for obviously human assets for you would assume some backstop cover operations in order to hire the truck drivers to receive whatever shipments came into Russia.

I mean, it is fascinating and I think you're right. I think we'll get more details as you go along. Typically, when you do something like this as an Intel organization, you don't necessarily want to play all your hand because there may be an opportunity in the future to conduct a similar type operation or you've just got assets or sources that you obviously want to maintain. Talk to me about the use of artificial intelligence, at least from your understanding at this stage.

Absolutely. Both Ukraine and Russia have used artificial intelligence, especially in targeting. Ukraine has a type of drone called the Ceph, which you can program and say, "Hey, I want you to fly into this area and fight a tank or an APC or whatever." Russia's Lancet loitering munition uses artificial intelligence for guidance when looking for targets.

And one of the things that we've noticed is that Russia has placed tires on the backs of some of their strategic bombers because they believe it will fool the artificial intelligence software that is on the loitering munition to misidentify that target.

That could all they could be wrong about that or it just could be make work for for airmen. Right. I mean, look, the Russian army probably isn't that much different than the American army when it comes to, well, throw some tires on that because we need the conscripts to do something. And we think it might help. Right. You got plenty of conscripts, plenty of tires, plenty of time.

If these drones weren't actually guided by people over telegram, as some have suggested, then we are at a point where we can send a payload someplace, send a command signal, and now these drones are going to lift off and find their targets automatically. And that is within our capability today. That is not science fiction. That is something we can do right now. All we have to do is get over the ethics of it.

And once countries understand that they have this power of artificial intelligence, you'll be able to get into your adversary's OODA loop, your Observe, Orient, Act, Decide loop very, very quickly. And so if you're not using artificial intelligence, but your adversary is, that's going to be a major, major problem.

Yeah, well, it's a good point that you raised in terms of the ethics of it all, right? Because that's been an issue for quite some time now. Global war on terror included in terms of taking the human out of that final decision-making process about a lethal action. But

Again, going back to this point, because I'm glad you raised it, the tires lining the wings and on top of some of these aircraft, I'm sure anybody who saw that video was a little bit confused as to why they were doing that. Again, I know this is a little bit off topic, but do you think that actually could function, could work, something that simple?

I mean, it could. If you recall during World War I, some allied nations painted their battleships in what they called zebra camouflage, which were stripes to just kind of make your eye kind of wonder where it's going.

And with artificial intelligence, you train on multiple images. So if I'm training artificial intelligence, I'm going to say, all right, here is 100,000 images of a T-22 bomber. And if those images don't have tires on top of them, the system is not going to train to recognize tires on top of them.

a bomber as a valid target. So it might not be able to find that target. Now, here's the deal. We don't necessarily know how artificial intelligence in some ways gets to their decision. So it might still be able to find that information or to match that target in its database if it is close enough. It will give its best guess. Kind of like a hallucination when using a large language model. It'll just come up

with something. So it certainly might do that. I don't think it can actually hurt, but it should provide a little bit more difficulty in an AI identifying these targets. But then again, then you just have to train the algorithm on, all right, what if the target is covered in tires? And then that goes right out the window.

One option that you could do is you might be able to do something like paint outlines of aircraft on the ground or even paint the tops of the aircraft in those stripes like the zebra camouflage of World War I on ships and that could throw off the targeting systems of AI. Do you ever think, I mean, this is speculation, but based on all your experience, do you think the US military would get to that point where they can

they can set aside the ethical questions and say, "Yeah, we will take the human out of the loop"? I actually think we're not going to have a choice and in a lot of ways we already have. The Aegis system is technically a human out of the loop system. You turn the Aegis system on and the Aegis system, which is on every single American cruiser and destroyer, will automatically detect and fire a target. So, even coordinate with other ships

in the battle group to take down missiles or take down aircraft. And that's because naval combat, when missiles are being fired at you, it happens so fast that the computer has to manage it. So, you already have what's called a hoodl or human out of the loop

system in the Aegis system. The Patriot system and the THAAD, which are two American air defense systems, they operate the same way. You put that thing into auto mode and it will identify, track and engage theater ballistic missiles or aircraft without any sort of human intervention. We already have killer robots.

The next step is to just admit that in some ways, killer robots could be beneficial, mainly because they don't get tired, they don't get scared, they don't get upset when a buddy dies, and they're going to make decisions based on facts and evidence as opposed to emotion.

Yeah, I'm sure this is making a lot of people really comfortable. Killer robots and human out of the loop. Before we go, Ryan, I want to be mindful of your time. Give me the elevator pitch for your terrific book, just so the viewers know. It's called The Wind Machine.

That's correct. So, last November, I released a book called The Wind Machine, which is about a hedge fund manager who has an AI-powered supercomputer. He uses it to trade stocks. And one day he realizes that because of different stock trades being made in the market, China might invade Taiwan. And so, the question kind of becomes, do I use this machine to make money or do I give it to the government to help fight or prevent or win this war?

And there was a pivotal scene in the wind machine where China attacks the United States using drones fired from a shipping container, which is all of a sudden people are talking about my book again. So I guess this attack was a little, I don't want to say I predicted this attack because apparently it was a year and a half in the making. But the book certainly drew some attention just because of that attack.

Yeah, yeah. Has the SBU given you credit yet for... I would love the credit. I'd love for them to plug my book. You know, I don't think I need to help the Ukrainians in any way when it comes to audacity. Yeah, yeah. It's really interesting. This came on the heels, of course, of President Trump's famous comment that, you know, Zolotsky wasn't holding any cards. And apparently they were holding some cards.

for this plan that had been, from their perspective or from what they were saying, 18 months in the making. It's rather extraordinary. And we really appreciate here on The Situation Report, Ryan, you coming on and providing your expertise and insight into this. Again, check out Ryan's book. It's available on Amazon. It's called The Wind Machine. And dude, I hope you pick up the phone when we call you and you agree to come back the next time.

Coming up next, wow, killer robots and human out-of-the-loop decision-making. There you go. All right, coming up next, a Klan-backed militia in Gaza is getting its weapons reportedly from Israel, and a new aid group is threatening Hamas's control.

So you ask yourself, or at least you should ask yourself, could this be the start of an internal uprise? Could Hamas actually be finally losing their grip on the population? I'll be right back. Welcome back to the PDB Situation Report.

A dangerous new front is opening in Gaza, and it's not between Israel and Hamas, but it's within Gaza itself. Israel has reportedly begun arming a clan-backed militia in Rafah, known as the Popular Forces. It's led by an individual named Yasser Abu Shabab. The group, described by some, including rival Hamas, as a criminal gang and by others as a security outfit, now operates in Israeli-controlled territory.

openly challenging Hamas's authority. At the same time, a new aid group, the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, GHF, is bypassing Hamas entirely, threatening their grip on food and medicine and power and control of the population. The stage may be set for a civil war inside Gaza. Now, joining us now to break it all down is Joe Trussman, research analyst at FDD's Long War Journal. Joe, thanks very much for joining us here on The Situation Report.

This is a fascinating development. And by that, I mean, you know, this idea that there's a militia or clan in southern Gaza and seemingly looking to assert itself against Hamas. And now we're hearing that the Israeli military is providing it with weapons. Tell me what you know about it.

Right. Yeah, you've kind of hit it on the mark there. Israel arming Palestinian militia in Gaza isn't the headline that you usually observe in the news. I'll tell you that over the years that I've been doing this. So, quite interesting.

Nevertheless, yes, that's what's happening, at least from what we know. Israel is arming them with light arms. I think some of the reports that I read were the Kalashnikovs. I think there's a little bit more support than just that. Nevertheless, this nascent militia,

who is run by or is led by a individual from southern Gaza named Yasser Abu Shabab. Effectively, what they're doing, right, with several hundred men, armed men, is they are countering Hamas. And this is, again, a Hamas right now that has been really been

hit hard over the last more than year and a half of war with the Israelis. So it's an interesting development, right? Right now, most of the information that we know is that this organization who calls itself the Popular Forces is based in southern Gaza. All right. And again, they're acting as a counter to Hamas. Will they succeed? I'm not sure. But still, this is a pretty interesting development.

Yeah. No, it's a fascinating development. Now, I guess you can go back and forth and argue about the strategy of putting weapons in the hands of a militia. Is it true that they operate, that Shabab and his militia, do they operate essentially in an area that currently is occupied and controlled by the IDF?

Yeah, so that's what it seems, appears to be. However, I will add this kernel of information. About a week ago or so, Hamas published this video where they said that they had attacked

or ambushed uh what they said was uh idf troops uh and they killed a few of them uh but i believe and i think other analysts believe that they weren't idf troops actually uh that they were actually uh the members of this new militia uh because you can just tell watching the video these guys weren't uh weren't wearing uniforms all right there was something off about it

Anyway, and this was in Southern Gaza. So it's interesting, Hamas is aware, right, about this organization and they're trying to counter it.

But yeah, effectively right now, this organization, this militia is in southern Gaza. Will it spread? It's possible, right? But they're going to need new recruits, right? So there's a lot to see, a lot we have to wait here and see what's going to happen. Again, this is all pretty new.

In Gaza, how important are the clans or the families in terms of operating independently from Hamas or controlling their own community, no matter how big or small that community may be?

Right. It's tough. I mean, listen, this is something I've said for a while and have assessed for a while now that Hamas is in pretty much every facet of life in the Gaza Strip, all right? Whether it's in working with, having men in working with NGOs, right, charities, or media, and in

Clans, for example, there are large clans in the Gaza Strip, many of them who have members of, whose members are members of Hamas. So, I think it is possible now that a clan can independently act without Hamas's interference only because Hamas is so weak right now because of the war. Now, if you were to ask me this question before October 7th, 2023, I'd tell you no way.

But I think things are changing. However, I think Hamas still wields a lot of influence, right? And this actually, speaking of clans,

the member, at least the clan that Shabab belongs to reportedly pretty much disowned him because of this news that came about in recent days and today. So yeah, I think it's possible, right? But again, Hamas still wields some influence in the Gaza Strip.

Yeah. Who's calling the shots for Hamas at this point? Because, you know, they've officially announced that, yes, Mohamed Sinwa was terminated. Who do you, from your understanding, who's calling the shots there?

Right. That's a million-dollar question, right? Who's left? I mean, let's be honest here. Most of Hamas's hierarchy has been eliminated. The top either political guys or top military guys, they're gone. But there's a couple of them still, you know, some stragglers, right? But I think if I were to put money on it, it would be this Gaza Brigade commander, Izzedine al-Khabad.

He's been around for many years and so far has survived Israeli attempts to assassinate him. So, I think he's calling the shots right now, at least in the interim, all right? Let's say Hamas survives the war, okay? Say they survive the war, I think there'll be a formal process of electing a new Gaza chief, okay?

But I think right now he's the one calling the shots. There are a couple of other guys that may be their alternatives, but I think he's the man right now, just because he's well known. He has the experience, the military experience to, I guess, just to command Hamas right now during these trying times for the organization.

Given the hits that Hamas has faced, right, and the leadership that's been terminated up to this point, sort of the disarray, their reported inability to pay their fighters, their personnel, to what degree do you think they're vulnerable to a group like this militia run by Shabab?

um in terms of of losing control and having another group come in and then this is a two-part question so there's that but then you know is it realistic on the part of the idf on the part of nanyahu and the israeli government to imagine that any group that comes in would be successful if it's known to have the support of israel it's receiving weapons i agree with you i think it's more than just weapons you would imagine they're receiving intel support and other resources uh

But it's hard to imagine that, you know, any group that could succeed Hamas in Gaza could do that by being a known ally or partner with Israel. Right. And that's been the big problem. I mean, unsurprisingly, that, of course, Hamas has said this and allied groups and Palestinians that essentially this Abu Shabab,

This militia is an Israeli proxy, all right? And yeah, it's basically they're controlled by Israel. So it is a problem. However, I think the Israelis already understood this, all right, even before they started supporting this organization. I think the strategy here could be a two-parter, really.

first to show, all right, to demonstrate to Palestinians that there are other forces, there are other options, okay, other than Hamas, okay?

Uh, that, uh, but that only, well, it could, can happen if this new organization, this new militia is, is successful. Uh, but, uh, to be quite honest with you, um, and you, you mentioned it too. Uh, I, I do have, I do have great concerns. I think the Israelis, uh, are taking a pretty significant risk here. Um, listen, we have to be honest. Uh,

This isn't the first time Israel has done something like this. Israel has armed organizations before the phalange in Lebanon, for example, or the Syrian rebel groups, of course, in Southern Syria. And things didn't turn out too well in those cases. Nevertheless, I think another part here that's important is that if Israel succeeds

in obviously not only just establishing this militia, but having this militia cause problems for Hamas. It'll weaken Hamas even further. I mean, let's face it here. Hamas is battling the IDF and now it's already using resources. I mean, we've seen evidence of it with the video that I talked about earlier, where Hamas is having to dedicate resources to

to trying to eliminate this new emerging or this nascent organization. And the problem too for Hamas is that it may compel others, other Palestinians to say, hey, why don't we form an armed group if the Israelis are helping Hamas?

Abu Shabab, why can't they, you know, help Abu Ahmed, for example, right? Or whoever, right? So the problem here for Hamas is that new organizations will start popping up, right? These armed organizations that are anti-Hamas. And I think that's in the Israeli calculus here, the Israeli strategy to compel, right, the Palestinian people to rise up against Hamas. It wouldn't surprise me. It's not a for sure thing, of course.

But that's something I've suspected here because just this new group, just them alone, even with a weakened Hamas, I don't think they could just beat Hamas by themselves. Hamas is still too large. So we'll see. We're going to start seeing new organizations popping up in the next few weeks and months. Just depends if the war lasts.

Yeah. It's really a great point that you make. It may not be from the Israeli government and military's perspective, it may not be that they view this militia group run by Shabab as a replacement for Hamas. They may just view it as

a distraction for Hamas, you know, one more way to keep them on their back foot and to degrade them into eventually with the overall objective of getting control away from Hamas. Joe, listen, we've got to take a quick break. And if you'll stay right where you are, we're going to be back with more from Joe Truesman from the FDD's Long War Journal in just a moment. Stay with us right here on The Situation Report.

Welcome back to the BDB Situation Report. Joining me once again is Joe Truesman. He's a research analyst at FDD's Long War Journal. We've been talking all things Gaza. Joe, another group that's making significant waves right now in Gaza is the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, GHF. Talk to me about them, if you could. Right. So, effectively, they are a nonprofit organization that has replaced...

the UN or UNRWA and other organizations to effectively deliver aid to the Palestinian people. Now, the big point about this organization is that

Its goal or one of its methods is to remove Hamas from the equation. Hamas, with previous mechanisms to distribute aid in the Gaza Strip,

Hamas was leveraging it, all right? They were effectively just taking the food, taking the aid for themselves. In this situation, the foundation is able to distribute aid to these organizations, or rather to the Palestinian people with a much less Hamas interference. I'm

I'm sure some Hamas, right? Hamas, the organization at least, is getting some aid out of it, right? But nothing like it was before. See, the problem was before Hamas, as I said, they would leverage this aid that would come into the Gaza Strip. How would they do that? They would basically steal it and sell it on the black market, all right?

Now, they can't do that, are not nearly in large quantities as they did before. So, this is what this new foundation is doing. They're distributing aid to civilians in need. It just started a few weeks ago. Of course, it's been a bumpy ride, I think, and I'm not surprised. But I think from the last report that I saw is that they've handed out distributed, I believe it was about 8 million meals so far. So,

I mean, that's pretty good but I still think there's a long way to go for them. Is it fair to say that Hamas has used the international aid in the past ever since they took control there in Gaza as a key element in how they maintain control over the population? Oh yeah, absolutely. I mean, Hamas used to be deeply involved in the logistics of

distributing the aid that was coming into the Gaza Strip. So, yeah, absolutely. Now, the Palestinian people don't have to rely on Hamas to get food.

So, it's a big deal and it really hurts Hamas. You can tell that Hamas is hurting just because the way they're acting, all right? You don't, you see, they publish these statements, they're completely, of course, against the foundation and of course, there's a lot of incitement to not only by Hamas but

by their allies in the Gaza Strip with a lot of these statements that are coming out against the foundation. So they want, listen, Hamas, they want the UN, the UNRWA and the UN back in the Gaza Strip because

Effectively, what Hamas did before was that they were able to control the UN. I mean, they built tunnels and command centers below UNRWA compounds. It was pretty incredible how much these organizations, not only Hamas,

Palestinian Islamic Jihad, for example, they had infiltrated UN organizations and other charities, right? It was a serious problem. And now, because of this war, we got to see the evidence of this infiltration, right? What Hamas did with a lot of these charities. So, the foundation is there to effectively stop that, right? And well, Hamas doesn't like it.

Yeah, well, you can see that in the narrative that's come out. I mean, it's been fascinating because it does seem every now and then you think, okay, well, maybe the media or much of the media will stop just swallowing whatever Hamas, you know, spoonfeets them as a narrative. And so, you know, this was actually a remarkable event in the sense that, you know, the Washington Post, the BBC and some others

For once, I actually had to come out and say, no, our reporting was wrong, meaning about the shootings that were reported by Hamas, by the health ministry at a GHF distribution site.

And, you know, it must have been enormously painful for the Washington Post to retract their article, pull it off and say, we've made a mistake. That's an earth-shaking event right there. Where did the GHF come from? They seem to just pop out of nowhere almost.

I mean, you can say that. I know that it's been established earlier this year with Israeli and American backing. And I believe now their chair is Johnny Moore, an evangelical leader. But listen, you know, this is a very difficult situation for any organization to come in into a war-torn territory, all right, and try to distribute food. And to be quite honest with you, I...

I think they're doing a pretty good job because, listen, Hamas, they're going to try, they're going to do what they need to do to undermine this new mechanism, okay? And then you look at what's happening with that militia run by Shabab down in southern Gaza, pushing back and against Hamas. I mean, these two things alone must be just as...

Threatening to Hamas as losing fighters, losing leadership in targeted attacks by the IDF because it almost speaks much more directly to their place in society. Am I wrong in putting it that way?

Right. No, you're definitely not wrong. Yeah, because listen, effectively what's happening is that Hamas is being replaced as the authority. All right. They're not the authority anymore, at least partially. And they don't want Palestinians to see that. OK, because that's where Hamas is losing its power. And it's it's.

grip over the population. And yeah, it's going to cause problems for them. So I think over the next weeks, maybe months, depends if there is a ceasefire, if there isn't a ceasefire, we're going to see a lot more coming out of Hamas, I think. And I hate saying this, I don't like it, but

It would not surprise me if we start seeing Hamas activity at these aid sites to specifically undermine it.

Just because, again, this is a terrorist organization. They're going to do whatever it takes to survive. That's the thing. And that's, I wish people would understand, more people would understand that Hamas is, Hamas' priority is itself, not the Palestinian people. The Palestinian people come in second, maybe even third. Hamas needs to survive, right? And that's what they're trying to do here. So, they will do pretty much anything to ensure that

unfortunately. So, we have to see. There's still, I think, a long road ahead. Will there be a ceasefire? Who knows? But in between, I think Hamas is going to continue to at least try to undermine what's happening with the foundation, right, with this new mechanism. And of course, they have their own problems with this new emerging militia. I think you're absolutely spot on. Look, I've taken some heat in the past because I've said that, you know,

Dead Palestinians are kind of Hamas's currency, right? That's their leverage. That's what they rely on because that's how they drive the international narrative. And so they fully expect and they fully knew what was going to happen as a result of the 7 October attacks that kicked off this current conflict. But speaking of the ceasefire and the hostage negotiations, what do you hear about that?

Right. This may sound counterintuitive, to be quite honest with you, but when I start seeing fresh reports about a possible ceasefire, quite frankly, I don't believe them because we've seen it so many times now. Just in recent days, in recent weeks, we thought maybe there was going to be a ceasefire. Nothing. And I'll tell you, I think negotiators

are hitting the same roadblock over and over again over the past month, over the past, well, more than a year and a half now. And that is this, that Hamas wants to stay in power. All right. They'll say, they say, yes, Israel, we'll give you the hostages that we took, but you guys got to get out and we're staying in power. And Israel says, you know what, we'll give you thousands of Palestinian prisoners for the hostages that took captive on October 7th.

But you're not staying in Gaza. And I think you're not going to at least govern in Gaza anymore. And that's the problem, I think, that we keep running into. That's why this ceasefire, it gets close. These negotiations get close to a deal, but then nothing happens.

I think that's where we're at, and we've always been at for some time now. This is why we're starting to see this new militia emerge, I think, to try to put more pressure on Hamas. Additional IDF maneuvers in the Gaza Strip in recent days, more pressure on Hamas to eventually let go. I think this is what Israel is trying to do.

Um, will it work? I don't know. But, uh, what I'm afraid of, what I'm concerned is that Hamas will continue going despite, uh, the, the collateral damage or the damage that has been caused in, in Gaza. Unfortunately, I'm not sure they'll give up or surrender. Um, I don't know. So I think that's where we're at right now, especially with the ceasefire. It's just the same problem. One side doesn't want to give up. Uh, it's, uh, you know, it's terms and the same goes for the other. So one of them is going to blink. Uh,

just don't know who. Last question, Joe, and of course, it requires a lot of speculation. From your perspective, any chance at all that the Palestinian people, the Gaza residents themselves rise up against Hamas and say enough's enough? I think that's what Hamas fears the most. I think that's what Israel wants more than anything.

We've seen a little bit of it with protests, especially in the Northern Gaza Strip over the last months. You see these protests, they start for a few days, they start rolling, the more people start coming out, but then they stop all of a sudden.

Why do they stop? I'll tell you why they stop. It's because there are members of Hamas that intimidate these protesters. They go to their homes. Sometimes they beat the protest. Sometimes they kill some of the protesters. They've done that. So, you know, as long as Hamas has the ability to intimidate protesters, to essentially or effectively quash these protests,

I don't see the Palestinian people rising up. However...

Again, as we talked about earlier, this emerging militia may compel other Palestinians to do something similar. All right. And that would be a big problem for Hamas. So right now, today, I don't think the civilians could rise up against Hamas, but maybe in a month or two, I think it's possible. But there needs to be more coordination, more organization among the Palestinian civilians for that to happen. I think it has to be widespread, but we haven't seen that so far.

Listen, Joe, I really, really appreciate your expertise and your insight here. Joe Truisman, research analyst at FDD's Long War Journal. Listen, man, I hope you'll come back. I don't think this conflict is going to end anytime soon. So we definitely would love to have you back on.

That's all the time we have for this week's PDB Situation Report. Now, if you have any questions or comments, maybe you've got a humorous anecdote that you want to share, just reach out to me at pdbatthefirsttv.com. Every month, as you know by now, our incredible team here at the PDB, well, they sit down and they sift through all your cards and letters.

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