Is This the End of the US Exceptionalism Trade?
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Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts. Radio. News. Hello and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots podcast. I'm Joe Weisenthal. And I'm Tracy Alloway. Tracy, you as exceptionalist, like to my mind, the big question for investors is like we've had this 15 year plus run of where it's like the only game in town has been you invest in the US.

You did not get paid for diversification. Arguably, you didn't even get paid for diversification within the U.S. because you should have just been in tech stocks the entire time. But I really feel like this is the moment where people are asking like,

Is this one trade that's worked out so well? Is it coming to an end? You know what I really like? I like talking about U.S. exceptionalism in markets because no one immediately starts debating the definition of U.S. exceptionalism. That drives me crazy. Right. Because in the broader realm of just politics or society or life, like is the U.S. exceptional?

But in markets, it's unambiguous. Yes. In markets, it's unambiguous that U.S. assets have just been where you want to be for a long time. So not only have U.S. equities outperformed recently, but they've really come to dominate the market as a whole, like as a proportion of the market. So the entire world, you know, even with U.S. stocks falling recently, the entire world basically still has an overweight opportunity.

The world is overweight. No, I mean, it's true. And if you're a global manager and your benchmark is the MSCI, AWS or whatever, you know, it's still a large part of U.S. trade. By the way, I was looking at the Bank of America fund manager survey today, which is one of my favorites. And after two straight years of long mag seven being identified by fund managers as the perceived most crowded trade in this most recent month was gold.

which was really interesting. - Oh, so it's finally changed. - For after, yeah. - That was the thing, 'cause like for years and years and years, everyone was like, oh, Fangs, like big tech, so crowded. And the suggestion was don't even bother buying 'cause the valuation is just so eye-watering at the moment. But in actuality,

If you wanted to not even outperform, but like meet your benchmark, that was the only trade was buy tech. This is the true pain trade, right? Because it's like everybody is long tech. Everybody is overweight tech. How could you make money buying tech? And yet you still had to buy tech just to keep up. And so now there's the question, is the pain trade reversed? Because if there's so many people are so into tech and so into the U.S.,

Can they actually make the risk and take the move of like, you know what, I'm going to overweight Germany or I'm going to buy Chinese stocks or whatever it is. And these are, I think, this is the moment where like you have to get this call right. And this is the call of the moment. And you haven't really had to do that before. Now things are getting interesting. Right. We all know the backdrop.

Wonderful to be here.

Honestly, I'm a big fan. I listen to you guys all the time. My clients and friends are big fans. So it's great to be here in my hometown. This is very important to us when guests say this on the episode. We hate when they say it before the recording starts because that was a total waste. Do you agree with the premise that I set up that this is essentially the big question that everyone has to grapple with right now in markets? Without a doubt and quite tiringly.

Sorry to exhaust it. We're exhausted too. I mean, even we're very exhausted after the liberation day, but even before all that, we're exhausted from how wrong the whole Jan 2, Jan 20 consensus went.

Everybody and their brother were believing S&P would go anywhere between 7,000 to 6,500. And, you know, T.Y. U.S. 10-year would go to 5%. It kind of did, but for all the wrong reasons. And then Euro-Dollar, right? And everybody who's saying parity, believe me, politely, deep inside, they were believing 0.95. That Dollar-CNH would go to 8. I can go on and on.

And why? First of all, this US exceptionalism, we can go into tech as well, but first and foremost, it was about fiscal expansion. US was the one, the big one, printing the most, especially after Omricon.

On top, yes, the magnificent seven, the wonderful Silicon Valley story, and the belief that Germany, Europe, and China, for different reasons, would never match the same fiscal ambitions. All these three things I mentioned are completely turned on their head. From deep seek to Germany's one, in fact, 1.1 trillion, to China holding on to their currency and choosing more fiscal ambitions,

all the consensus trades and views are thrown into the water. It is true. In January, we recorded that episode with the ECB's chief economist, and it was basically about all the challenges facing Europe. And then like two months later, European stocks are surging. Everyone's getting very excited about that market.

I have what I imagine might be a difficult question, but maybe it's not for you. How much of this has to do with things being really bad in the States versus things actually going well in Europe? I really like that question. It's not a difficult question, actually. It's a key question. At the very beginning of the year, it was more about the rest of the world doing much better than expected. Germany's step is a huge step.

After the election, I held a micro dinner in Frankfurt, as you do. And both our big cheeses and some of our key clients really did not see this coming. Maybe 300 billion, maybe 400 billion, mainly on defense after the shock in Munich. But infrastructure, health, education was hardly mentioned. Something like 1.1 trillion. My head of rates trading was throwing that out as an idea, which was quickly pushed back.

Then the Hamburg local elections happened. And right away, Mörs came up with that number.

And before the new parliament sets in, sometimes these words hyperbole are used too much, but that was a historic step. On top, China, deep seek, that was a big, big development. I mean, I was jumping up and down on my Bloomberg on Saturday and Sunday of that weekend. Whatever you want to believe, I mean, maybe they'll do it for five, maybe they do it for 50. They definitely don't do it for 2 billion or 1 trillion, right? So deep seek will change the economy.

world for Magnificent Seven and all of us consumers. But then to Tracy's question, recently it's becoming more about U.S. hurting itself, U.S. hurting its soft power, U.S. creating a confidence crisis in a way.

With full respect to Scott Besant, who's been a dear client friend as well, who's been to some of my New York Mac read-ins, when he says what Mac 7 goes through, a code, has got nothing to do with Mega, it's more about a deep-seek issue,

I would kindly disagree with that. Of course, deep-seek, as I told you, has got many factors to do with it. But tariffs, much more than people expected, ended up shooting US on its own leg. Is deep-seek about deep-seek or is it a metonym for the rise of competitive Chinese tech? I think more for the latter. But my friends that I do trust in beyond the market mine yours,

From the start, I believed that it was real. Some things it did much better than ChatGBT. And I think the U.S., since it has given me my education as well, the first reaction to it was, the U.S. I know. This is for real. It may help all of us. Let's compete.

So, in that sense, it was good for humanity as well. But yes, that was the first step in this year in which China said, hey, I'm here. Then the second big step was last Wednesday. I mean, Joe and Tracy, last Wednesday, unfortunately, five, six hours before this, when I woke up to see the China fix, to see if they devalued big or not, and when I was leave to see they haven't, then I looked at US 10-year, as you do, and Eurodollar, and then

I didn't unfortunately sleep. Why? I didn't sleep that night either. I was on my couch updating my Bloomberg app on my phone just looking at 10-year yields. Imagine if we did this one week before. Because U.S. 10-year had gone to 455. And at the same time, dollar was weakening. So even that Sunday, three days ago...

I kind of knew this was the vibe. Some people were really worried about it, but I didn't see. I didn't see in two days dollar melting like that. And at the same time, US long ends being basically lost 10 and 30 years. That is my terroir. I grew up in emerging markets. My first responsibility was emerging markets. Again, no hyperball. That was emerging markets like trading. That stage, you know, I almost wanted to...

Shout out, responsibility, almost like an MC to the market. Somebody needs to blink. Somebody needs to come. I thought it could be Fed, and right that afternoon, President blinked for the first time. Yeah.

You know what else was very emerging markets-y that week? Having policymakers calling for rate cuts when the dollar was falling and yields were going up. That is classic EM, right? Well, I was thinking that if we were classic EM, wouldn't the IMF people be calling for rate hikes and not rate cuts in that environment? Would they say, oh, you need an independent central bank that is committed to orthodoxy. You got to hike in these environments.

That, my friend, you guys are in London. We're honored. That, unfortunately, is the trust moment. We went through that in this island just three years ago. But even then, at the height of the panic, when quite justifiably some were calling for a hike, Bank of England instead chose QE. At that time as well, people said, oh, that may be inflationary at the end, etc. But that ended up calming things down.

I do believe, first of all, last week, if the president didn't blink and 10-year and 30-year continue to sell off with the dollar selling off EM style, I think Fed would have come definitely and the QT. I mean, we can talk about that. I think they will do that right away in May anyway. But I think they would do QE as well. Not cut. I think Powell really doesn't want to cut because of all the inflation growth dynamics.

But they would have done that. And I don't agree with some of my dear client friends who say even QE inflationary wouldn't Longan react to that even more. Maybe they are kindly talking their book. If we go through that kind of episode, a QE may calm things down. But Trump blinked two or three times. So I'm not too sure.

famous last words, will go through that Fed QE stage. Now, there's a big, big, big debate already in the markets, even though my dear friends are tired and wounded. Do you play for the next leg to come? One more quote-unquote attack towards 450 and higher in U.S. 10-year, much more importantly, 5% and higher in 30-year?

Or do recession worries and growth worries always outweigh? Is it now when worries peak, is it now time to receive? I kind of have a lean towards this, the latter. And it has won by 25 base points as I speak. So something may have begun. Yeah.

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You'll love the presentations you can easily design with Canva. Your clients and coworkers will, too. Love your work with Canva presentations at Canva.com. One of the reasons we wanted to talk to you is because you are constantly speaking and arguing over these trading ideas with your clients.

And I guess I'm curious about... I like the arguing. Yes. I guess I'm curious, is anyone buying the Trump administration argument that like, okay, we're taking some short-term pain in exchange for longer-term, better economic growth? Is that something that people are actually positioning for? Is that resonating at all with your clients? Again, very good question. Up until mid-February, end of February...

A lot of them did. Now, we don't think about it, but, you know, euro at 113, 115. Back then, to talk even 110 euro was like, come on, you know, calm down, etc. Because people did believe tariffs have to be inflationary. Market is not believing. Market is not pricing it. That's why it's not happening, etc., etc. Then, credibility started to become an issue. When you start with Canada and Mexico,

And you don't mention China that much. Then you decide to do something on Canada and Mexico even though market and most economies are revolting. You immediately step back. Delay it for one month. You start losing credibility. Then...

People start relaxing about the Liberation Day. You come up with this big sign with very, let's say, creative way of calculating it. And you hit China and Asia the most. Then people say there is a credibility issue here. Actually, this reminds me because you and I met for coffee in New York City like three or four weeks ago. And I think one of the comments at the time, and now that this seems like ancient history...

But the thinking at the time was like, oh, it's interesting. Trump is hammering Canada and Mexico a lot more rhetorically than he is China. Maybe he's going to go easy on China. And I had forgotten that that was actually in the discourse even like three weeks ago.

I do remember our conversation as well and you made me think too because when I said I still believe like look I think for this year this yours US exceptionalism trade is here to stay it's not just a one quarter thing because that I heard a lot as well Ozan good call we like your blue mega hat but this is just one month this is just two months this is just three months now it's 115 etc but then you told me look China there

They're doing a lot better in EV and solar. They're starting to do better in tech, in fiscal. So maybe we are not that exceptional after all, you had told me. And then also on that going easy on China, he was trying to hide his cards. Yeah, he was. Then he went seventh gear. But China is playing a good one. If a lot of people, back to that Wednesday when we didn't sleep, a lot of people feared that either that Wednesday or that Thursday, China would devalue big.

To be fair to both my research and trading, Perry, Malika, we really believe that people shouldn't exaggerate. They would hold the ground and it was to their advantage to choose fiscal more. So far, so right. And that also proving making things quite difficult for investors.

For the president. Like even this morning, right? I opened up, okay, it's more colorful for Tracy and Joe. Not wonderful, but S&P down 70, NASDAQ down 350. And then as I was walking to the tube, China may talk to you guys if you show respect.

immediately I sample all these 70 points. By the way, for listeners, we are recording this Wednesday, April 16th. It is 10.58 London time, 5.58 New York City time. We always have to get these in in our market conversations. Yeah, I think it's so funny we actually have to include the exact time now, which we didn't have to do before. We used to just do dates. I like that. Before ECB, before Powell speaks in Chicago. Yeah, exactly. Well, okay, so on the tech front,

One thing I don't get is so much of the American exceptionalism trade has been about AI enthusiasm and this idea that America has a head start and no real competitors, at least up until the unleashing slash arrival of deep seek. In Europe, we still haven't really seen.

a real contender in the AI space. I think that's fair to say. And there has been this long running disappointment that Europe is just not where other places like the US and China are when it comes to cutting edge technology. That hasn't changed as far as I can tell. But it seems like investors are kind of willing to overlook that. Or maybe they think that

US isolationist political policy and the idea that Europe is going to have to come together to fight Russia and make up for a less active US, maybe that's going to be the thing that sparks technological advance? A bit of both. I think first of all, especially Germany, but Europe can reinvent itself. That's going to take a little bit of time.

In the meantime, things like our new media, so things like LVMH, Hermes have to carry us, which didn't happen yesterday because of what's going on with China. So it will need time. At the moment, Europe...

does AI, but does the chips, like the part of the chips that helps the ASMLs and the TSMCs of the world. Germany doesn't necessarily have its own ASML. But at the same time, yeah, this is a country, at least a country, Germany, but overall continent that has shown that it can reinvent itself. It's not going to happen in two, three months, but all these for the past, all these unforced errors,

America is making is giving the old continent some time. Europe is arguably now the leading... I mean, clearly...

the most advanced place in the world for aerospace technology. And we had those headlines today, or sorry, yesterday about China halting deliveries of Boeing. Already Boeing was falling behind Airbus largely due to operational problems. There is clearly still some just sort of like classical industrial might on the continent. Much of it aerospace, probably, you know, engines, other parts that feel like areas for potential further growth.

Agreed. Look, I go back and forth between three categories, two categories. Category one is after having a great four months, I'll be wrong. U.S. exceptionalism will be fully back. This was all a joke. America, America. Category two, for reasons like you outlined, Europe, European industrialism, China will continue to lead the pack.

To be honest, it's going much better than I would have thought. This much outperformance didn't happen since 1980, etc.,

It's going to be continued team. And category three, USA Inc., America will take everything down. It will be such a serious confidence and market crisis that with all the respect to European aerospace, this, that, the Danish… True global recession. No place to hide. I go back and forth. I mean, how can you not? You go back and forth these three or two categories. My gut feel and reasoning still is that category two, the broad team of 2025 will win.

Because why? I think the president will continue to blink. And also, I have a backstop now. I do believe if things get very ugly, 5% and more U.S. 30-year ugly in U.S., Fed will come with QE at least. Collins last Friday said,

She gave a hint. She said, the one more word, we are ambitious. She didn't just say watching. She was the first one to give most investors belief that they could come with more steps. And then Waller. I know that now Waller, people are half joking about, is he really saying it or is he lobbying for the job? Is he interviewing? Yeah, yeah. But I think he does believe it. He's a respected man. And he did hint that cuts can be front-loaded.

if things get uglier. So first of all, I believe blinks will continue from the White House. But even if they don't, I think we have the backing of the Fed. You know, I mentioned in the intro this idea that the world is sort of de facto overweight, the U.S., just because of the market size and its weighting in a bunch of different benchmarks.

Does that provide like some cushion for U.S. equities selling off? Like the fact that you do have index investors, passive investors that have to be hugging a certain benchmark, which happens to be filled with a lot of American equities. Completely agreed. Exactly. Tracy, in a simple way of putting it, I was discussing with a senior colleague yesterday. This is great because let's go right into that reallocation, the big team, right? If...

big players were really in the big sense of the word with a big R reallocating away from the US, there will be a lot of circuit breakers in S&P. I don't want to sound, but that is, you know, it would be, I'm not sure how S&P would open tomorrow morning. So there's a difference between even these big real money, so well funds,

trading in their own time zone and making much bigger much longer dated decisions so I think this latter it's more we do want headlines especially us emerging markets FX people we do get excited but true true true big reallocation I don't think we're there yet that being said there

There are traits. It's not just my wonderful hedge fund friends, fast money, getting what's the word Trump used? Quizzy. It's beyond it. Yippee. It's more serious than that. Yeah. No, Tracy wrote a great note about that yesterday or the day before. I can't track. It was like real money, real money actually moving away. You know, everyone looks for analogies to past events.

experiences and it's like, is this like great financial crisis? Is there like a run element? Is this like COVID where it's a supply shock element? Is this like the Liz Truss moment where I don't really like the term because I don't like insulting people, but you hear that term more on risk premium exist. The other, you know, when you describe, okay, what if the Fed comes into backstop? Another possibility is

A Brexit analogy in which there's not an immediate crisis, really, is just the start of a slow degradation of the economy. It sounds like when you're in that number two spot where it's like, OK, there's some blinking going on. There's some Fed backstopping going on that it's maybe that is the analogy perhaps that we should be thinking about. I mean, soft power is being eroded. My alma mater. I'm biased on the issue, but Harvard headlines, right?

That doesn't help the global perception, whatever your politics is. So in that sense, in fact, when I was trying to get some sympathy from some clients forwarding around the Harvard headlines, one of them did say, immediate answer, US's Brexit moment. Yeah. To your point. So for it to get more serious, uglier, and GFC like that, than that is the big word. DM credits.

DM credit That needs to shake For it to become You know God forbid More 08-09 like

What's the trade? Because we can all sit here and talk about these big macro themes like American exceptionalism, but given some of the restrictions on large investors and given the reality of trading in certain markets like Chinese assets, what exactly do you do here? I think, look, first of all, I do believe 4850 in S&P may

may have been a base, a floor. Even if I'm wrong on that, if we go down towards that very fast, more Fed blinking and QE will come very fast. So I think we'll bounce very, very fast. I will forget that I was wrong. I continue to believe Europe and China has a lot of fiscal room. So I feel at the moment quite confident that DAX, MDAX, the medium caps and China tech will continue to weigh out for outperforming U.S.,

On race, we had started discussing with Joe. I do have sympathy that receivers from here on the long end will work. That may be a big trade, actually. Talking about despite tiredness and wounds, a crowded trade, steepness, still crowded because on...

On paper, it does make sense. For different reasons for US and Europe, but short-hand may stay lower and long-hand may get sold off more. On that one...

So I think flatteners at certain stages may give pain to people. ECB, for example, okay, she will cut tomorrow. But I don't think there's so many unknowns, right? How the tariff negotiations will go, etc. On June, she will not blink. She will not give you the hint that this will continue on June. And if people started getting worried about a June skip, there you go. That's not going to help your steepener. Our official call is that terminal rate in Europe is all the way down to 1.5%.

My excellent chief economist Mark Wall does get pushback from that in Spain and Italy of the world, even before the recent developments and even before Euro went to 1.13. Soft dollar, look, we're talking big levels on Euro, on Yen, on Swiss, on Gold.

But my bias is still to sell any dollar rallies. So we're talking about that Wednesday night when dollar was selling off. Wednesday morning. Last Wednesday morning. Actually, for me, it was Tuesday night. I mean, it sort of depends. It was my Tuesday night. We all know what you're talking about. We all know what night. Yeah, yeah. Lucky are you. Yeah, yeah. That was the Tuesday night. I didn't get any sleep. It was that day. And as you said...

This is – you're like this is EM style trading, right? When you see all three equities, treasuries and the dollar going down. If we were actually talking about the US as an EM, if you're an analyst as a –

There would be a lot more, you know, there'd be a lot of talk about politics and how politics works and, you know, what is it? Is there an independent central bank, et cetera? Like how much of the conversation is really becoming about stability of just like the sort of internal workings of the U.S. political order? Yeah.

Again, very, very relevant. I mean, in that kind of sense, if we half revisit your Tuesday night episode,

And if president sends five more tweets about Fed should cut right away, not good. Some people even believe on the Friday speech, I don't know now, two weeks before. It's okay, we've all lost track of time. If president didn't tweet five minutes before the guy spoke, I mean conspiracy theory, but maybe he wouldn't prefer inflation that much over growth.

So, if you create that kind of Fed independency question mark, it's not going to help your trade. At this moment, talking about EM, if this thing goes like this, America needs friends. America finance needs friends. Powell and Besant, when they auction, need friends. So...

Talking about the EM, right? Whenever the president, these days, things can change. He's a very successful political person, needless to say. But as of now, whatever the topic is, from tariffs to Powell to Harvard, when he talks and writes too much about an issue, it doesn't help with this capital allocation situation. Real money sells dollars. Yeah. Mathematics. And at the moment, he needs real money to buy his auctions.

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You'll love the presentations you can easily design with Canva. Your clients and co-workers will too. Love your work with Canva presentations at canva.com. I'm not going to say that the U.S. is an emerging market, but I am going to ask you, with all of your emerging market experience, what advice do you have for people who are trying to trade the U.S. at the moment? Watch the three key people. Trump, Powell, Xi. Who's going to blink when?

I think that would be my advice even a week ago. Trump already showed that maybe he has less guards. He's blinking. Then the second thing is, you know, I mentioned Collins, I mentioned Waller. Not cuts, but I do believe that QE is out there. So I think we have the backing of the Fed. And then finally, Xi, even though...

Okay, he has the cards, but this is not good, right? So at some stage they need to talk. Even the basic, what we quote unquote expected after the president rallies last year, 10% for everyone else, 60% China, even that's much better than this.

So at some stage there will be that summit between them and we will be at a better stage. So this all makes sense. That's why I'm not category three. That's why I'm, you know, we will be okay, maybe 48-50 will hold, but rest of the world and Europe will do better. If I believe that Trump wouldn't blink because of ideology, whatever, if I believe that Powell will say, your problem, not even QE,

And if I believe that China would play a very, very, even a tougher hand, then I would fear, yeah, I would fear Brexit or 08 like scenes more. I don't. I just have one last question. It's kind of a curveball and I'm certainly not asking you to like make your call or a trade.

You know, one thing that I've noticed, though, over the last couple of weeks is that Bitcoin has not actually been as tech stock like as it used to. I used to joke that Bitcoin traded like three tech stocks in a trench coat. And I'm wondering when you talk to people about.

We all know it's a speculative trade, whatever. That's not my point. But when you talk to people, particularly NEMs, do you get the sense that people take it for real as a monetary asset that they want to have some allocation to it that's separate from all of this? Can I answer that and then add one more thing that I want to? Yeah. So Bitcoin answer is?

It was just going to it was about to become even more serious in a good good sense. It was becoming even more of a digital gold, not just my some of my dear client friends and their big portfolios, but some institutionalization was taking place because of what they believe Trump would bring to the table.

But then my answer to Tracy on credibility, there's a reason why all these – if he did these China-Canada tariffs on Jan 20, we would probably want to trade first at 102 euro dollar. Now we're trading at 115 because credibility is gone. A little bit similar now with the whole Bitcoin situation. Back to the back of the class. Yeah.

If you're a big believer on a big bounce in the market, maybe you would trade it in your own portfolio, etc., etc. But some of the funds getting buy and sell side, getting more serious about it as an asset in an institutional side, I think that took a hit. This other team that I want to bring up so that I don't regret, TaxCut. So, you know, that, again, talking about a big veteran, one of us, big market player, Besant, there's a reason why he's saying, literally saying,

to your colleague Hordurn this whole year has been tariffs tariffs tariffs we need to talk you know he's always talking to the Ozan we need to talk tax cuts tax cuts tax cuts deregulation deregulation well you're the man you're the man to change the narrative to that so he's claiming that they're moving fast on that like in Trump 1.0 that's going to be important whether it's going to be just the extension of the existing tax cuts or will he you know beyond tips and stuff will he bring something new to the table we can discuss whether that's good or not whether this thing this economy is more physically easy

But yes, if they beyond words, if they can succeed on changing the narrative from tariff madness to more the house tax cut deregulation, how fast it's passing, can it be done before July 4th, etc. That's going to help the...

Not what the screens are telling you now, but that would help S&P and Nasdaq. Even there, though, we're getting confused mixed signals, right? We had a story overnight where the Trump administration was said to be looking at tax hikes for people earning more than a million dollars a year. So I can see why people have forgotten that part of the narrative because it is a little bit confusing at the moment. I completely agree with you. Look, for Trump 2.0, for the economic team, it has been a stumbling block.

Stumbling start. Like they haven't... A stumbling start and a stumbling stock. Exactly. It hasn't been understatement. It hasn't been a Michael Phelps start. Ozan Tarman, thank you so much for coming on Oddlocks. This was like the perfect moment, perfect guest. Really appreciate it. Thanks so much. That was fun. That was a lot of fun. Thank you.

That was a fun conversation. I like the sort of the three scenarios that he laid out. And, you know, unlike everyone else, you know, I changed my view. Not that anyone should ever listen to my view because I've never gotten anything right. But whatever I feel like usually like changes by the hour at this point. Yeah, which I think is fair, right? Like that's the reasonable response to the flood of news headlines that we're getting. I feel like we should just add

OddLots does not provide any trading advice. This is our disclaimer. But that said, one thing that seems certain to me really is the higher term premium in the treasury market and the idea of a steepener. Also because I think the US is just going to have to issue even more short term over time for a variety of reasons, one of which could be foreign investors stepping away from the treasury market more than they have already been doing. So that's

That's one to watch. And then just on the Bitcoin point that you were making, I've been thinking about this too over the past couple of weeks. Like I have been eagerly waiting to see what the next big Bitcoin talking point is because this is one of the real strengths of Bitcoin is...

it always comes up with a new narrative yeah right and like well it can't be tariffed yeah it's kind of people have called it gold kind of digital gold and it's actually people should look at the chart it's not trading as bad and as nasdaq like as it had been for a while which makes me wonder if it's a little bit acquiring some of those safe haven properties people supposedly claim yeah but it needs something like pithy for a trump tariff world and we're still waiting for that and but i

I'm sure there are people working on it right now. You know, the other thing is when I think about all of these. So there's two things that I think about. One is there is this scenario that I don't think gets talked about as much, which is like the global depression trade or the global recession trade. Right. And so the idea that it's so disruptive and the U.S. is so important that the idea of it just being like a sort of U.S. recession, which many people obviously think it actually not that it actually is something

Which seems like a realistic possibility. And then the other thing is that when everything looks sort of bleak and there really isn't much cutting edge tech in Europe and US is maybe shooting itself in the foot and there are limits to the degree to which anyone can really invest in China.

Plus gold is just shiny.

As you say, it's really nice. It's really nice. It has that physical attraction, that sense of comfort in times of uncertainty. Well, you know, we went to the jewelry store, I guess that was like February or March or whatever. And I tried on that $75,000 gold necklace. Do you regret not buying it? Yeah, I feel really dumb not buying it because A, a bunch of people told me it looked good on me. But B, more importantly, that'd be like an $85,000 gold necklace today.

Joe, you know, we're not that far from one of London's jewelry districts. We can go shopping right after this. It's about 10 minutes away. I'm really underweight gold, Tracy, so I might have to do that. All right. Shall we leave it there? Let's leave it there. This has been another episode of the All Thoughts Podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow me at Tracy Alloway. And I'm Joe Wiesenthal. You can follow me at The Stalwart. Get more of Ozan's thoughts. Check out his LinkedIn, Ozan Tarman. Check him out.

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