Is This the End of the US Exceptionalism Trade?
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For years and years now, there has been one winning trade: Go long the US versus the rest of the world. Thanks to tech dynamism and general pro-growth US macro policies, American assets have far outstripped their global peers. Of course, there have been some bumps along the way, but they've usually been global bumps. The financial crisis in 2008-2009 was global. Covid was a shock for the entire world. But with Trump's tariffs, we are now looking at a story that has the potential to be US-specific, even if a trade war will be felt internationally. And so investors are asking the question of whether US exceptionalism has come to an end, and there may be better opportunities elsewhere. On this episode we speak with Ozan Tarman, vice chair of global macro at Deutsche Bank. He tells us what his clients are thinking about and the various scenarios whereby US assets continue to underperform. We also discuss the implications of the US becoming more EM-like in its politics, and its financial markets.Read More: End of 'America First' Trade Is Boosting Europe's Markets)The World Is Finding a Plausible Alternative to Treasuries)Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots)

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