Our hottest and coldest 2025 takes
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Welcome to the verge casts the flagged ship podcasts of extremely mild, very hot takes. I'm my friend day with peers, and I am Christmas shopping. I have my whole this.

I'm very organized this year. I have all the people that I need. I know roughly what i'm getting them. I had like a big self brain storm of ideas. But you know, I discovered for me at least, the single hardest thing to buy is like a pretty good twenty dollar gift.

The things for like secret cena parties or colleagues at work, or just like list of people in the world, you need to get something, but you don't know them well enough to really get something like super personal. And also, I might be weird if you did and you don't want to spend a ton of money. I think this is why I end up both like giving and receiving a lot of starbuck give cards every year.

It's just a pretty univerSally useful thing that people like, but I don't want to do that so much anymore. I just don't know what how to do. A little lost on this idea, like what is a good twenty dollar, relatively safe and univerSally like gift to give.

If you have the answer I wanna know, please tell me sincerely. You will make everything about my holiday planning for forever Better and easier to get at me. Anyway, this epsom is the first in a two part series.

We're doing about twenty twenty five. It's the end of 204。 We're doing some looking back on this show, but we thought I would also be fun to spend some time looking forward. Twenty twenty five is going to be a big year in tech.

We have a new administration coming in the office that is going to change the way that we think about a lot of politics and regulation and has a lot of feelings about big tech. Frankly, we have this A I bubble slash hype cycle slash takeover of the world that is still ongoing. We have all kinds of questions about anti trust and big what's onna happen to the venture capital world? There's just a lot going on. And IT feels like in so many ways twenty twenty five is going to be .

maybe not a turning point.

but a moment in certain ways. So we figured we just look ahead and see what we could guess about what's coming. I grabbed the ipai l and the wall street journal st.

Join a stern two of my favorite people to speculate wildly about tech with. And we spend some time doing IT for this first episode. We each came with predictions. I gave them both the homework to come with three different predictions ranked in order of spiciness. And we're gonna go around and talk about IT.

We invented a little game that if i'm onest only like half, makes sense to me at this point, but we're gna figured out we go, it's going to a be very fun. All that is coming up in just a second. But first, I guess i'm just buying store gift cards.

This is life. Now, merry Christmas, everybody. Have some starbucks. This is the verge cast.

We'll right back. Support for the verge cast comes from polestar. Polestar is an electric performance car brand focus on innovation for both cutting edge technology and design. Nothing exemplifies this Better than polestar three. Their luxury electric S U, V IT features an arrow dynamic interview and a. And to have you a driver who doesn't want to choose between having an electric vehicle and the agility of a sports car, then this might be the car for you experienced for yourself at your local polestar space. Look, a test drive at polestar 点 com。

Welcome back me. I tell us here. Hello, joy stern. Hello, studio. This is so happy.

I am a look at you or look at both of you.

We have spent like a lot of time in rooms together over the years and not in a very long time. This is very exciting. Uh, okay, here's that.

This is going to work. okay. I have told both of you to come with three predictions for twenty, twenty five in increasing level of spiciness. Not necessarily like less likely to come true, but like, I want your Victory lap for each one to be successively bigger. Make sense. Like if you your third take should be the one that if you are right, you you're going to tell a lot of people about how you are right.

O, K, O, K, O, K.

So we're going to go around. We're going to talk about them. And then the way that this game plays is after each one of us gives a prediction, we're going talk about IT. The other two get to decide if they want to like cosine that prediction. Uh, at the end of the year, you get a point if that prediction comes true, I guess you lose a point if IT doesn't cause otherwise, you should sign under .

all of end up the point.

I think you have to be able to end up OK. Uh, so there should be some consequence for picking off of them. So i'm just making of the rules as we go here. So you you lose a point will do half point.

I'm going you lose a point if you pick a prediction and it's wrong, but you get a point if you pick prediction and it's right at the end of the year this episode and the next episode next week, which we're going to do more twenty twenty five stuff going to total all the points. And whoever wins the verge cast is going to buy you the most cool gadget of twenty twenty five. What would IT be? How much the cost? Who notes? But we're going .

to do this because .

of people that does not need help.

I am gonna already thought .

that cash h is of this prize is one one hundred of percent.

Well, that depends.

Uh, so this are doing were going, uh, join that you're the guest. You get to go off first. But we're going so small and build up to IT. So what is your what is your mildest prediction for twenty five?

I have two. Of course he is that at what if I lose a point already for having to? Okay, I lose a point.

It's fine. And starting negative neck, okay, it's twenty twenty six at the end or at the end of twenty twenty five. And I am still posting to five hundred different social media accounts because social media is still more fractured.

Wait, have a question to a clarifying question for restriction. Do you mean twitter like social .

media account?

Tiktok in an instagram st. Are different.

actually was another one in here? K, tiktok survives. So i'm still posting there.

I am post there, there often, but maybe I should, maybe I will. So tiktok survives. But also we've got blue sky.

We've got threads. We have something else. We've got masted on point three point o.

We've got x in the the twitter .

like face twitter. I mean.

mostly i'm talking about the twitter like .

because there's no chance the short form video ones are consolidate. No instagram reals in tiktok?

No, no, no. I'm just saying there's more it's more, more are open for days.

There is years like .

twenty twenty two where was like the backlash to social media. Next year, people are gonna spend more tight. No, next year, we're more on social media. And yes, I am still posting every day to five hundred different accounts and my AI .

agent coming.

but that my A I agent also that that all the things that has to do is key poster.

do you think it's the same set that you're posted to now?

There could be more there's probably going to be more. okay.

So you think the number goes up.

I don't think the number goes down and that is my protection, okay? Is just not going to get any Better.

I'm not to this one.

I hundred percent you're not. I'm what what goes away?

Yeah what went?

I think that the ability to hit one button, impose to multiple twitter legs will go up. And that will you will experience that is doing that does make any sense. Yes, IT does.

But where are I? I going to look at all the replies.

Probably one of those clients because of the whole point of these, except for x, which I I will say will pretty stubbly remain in like a world garden. Everyone else is going take a way that in the Operate that's a nice. But even like your two.

he dos get the point. And IT is true if if like if the federal s wins. Yes, IT counts is one is the point, but that's the point because the fevers is many things, but IT is one thing you have to post to one place and IT posts everything to everywhere.

That's the whole point of the federal s right? yeah. So what you're saying is like these things will come together in such a way that makes IT actually more but feel like this.

yes. And that will enable more to exist, right?

The same kind of the same thing. But you win. I think this, I don't even know how the game works, Frankly. Sorry, you went because you could have a solution .

to my problem. I have.

I just know truth.

Social is a master on clone is actually very funny. They just copied the open source master on code base and the license of master on the registration that true social has to publish. It's on source code. This is a real thing. And they optick IT and others, like other people who try to on like cleared up and explain its going it's very funny all it's very funny.

But the point of the social uses.

I am just keeping track of how you would build new social products. And the obviously to do IT is to take the open source projects, right? So if that's just the way the people begin to build new things, then they're going to interOperate because those things already built in interOperate, I don't know going to play out there.

There's like you know greater than nothing chance to blue sky is like how ever in some blue sky and they just shut IT down and they become a world guarding. I know the is going to happen. That's not how they talk, but I just don't want to happen six months around. But my my belief the reason not signing on this tradition is that just at the user level, you for the twitter likes, you push a button post everywhere and can rely OK.

I hope you're right.

I don't. I kind of was foundling tiktok in their tubes. I wanted one of them to be that like tiktok survives. So I was trying to get everything and one that social media is just still a mass and its fractured and we're everywhere and we still have a million apps on our phones .

that were open in the split between the things that look like twitter and the video performs. Degree will pull the talk .

out because i'm we're going to come back to take talk. I have feeling we're going, am sure. Ah okay. So i'm on that one with john is out n it's extremely .

my okay, this is we .

will still have computer.

It's like I don't put any season on the park. You um I think when they do the alexa AI IT will be okay.

K, I say that's not as .

mild to take as IT would have been six months ago.

but here that explain why. So the stakes for amazon are solo. They are not google where there IT has to be good and they have to get IT out.

And future of all search depends on german I. They're not apple where they're flying look at this glowing idiot and they have to fix IT and they are advertising a protection IT. They're just like, yeah, this thing that us timer is art in your house.

What if IT was Better and they have infinity to solve that problem, but there's no pressure to solve that problem. And I think panel will wait. I think he's very comfortable waiting to solve that problem.

And so that's that's a well, he wait till after twenty twenty five.

my whole prediction is it'll be OK, right?

I'm not launch in this year.

I I think you know .

in the next years see my second child was gonna apple intelligence gets Better because IT can get anywhere.

Yeah that's also pretty kind of in the exact same thing in like thing that sucks.

Yes, sucks sliter less. I would counter yours. I think I will get way works. I think apple is going to feel the pressure of the other products doing stuff here and they're going to try to make IT do a bunch more stuff and IT can do those things as we've all already .

amazon gna feel that pressure, pressure coming from amazon.

but they don't have a business based on my pressure, right? right? If one person switches from an iphone to a pixel because german, I can do something that's like to have a meeting like tim circus, like everybody getting here, like what is going on? Where should be there is right? There's a whole thing that happens.

It's bad. Amazon is like what you want to do, a google assistant, not like you're lazy. Use IT to play, play music and set timers to that, to that, to the mild restriction. They will wait. K, I could be wrong.

It's a pretty mild prediction. I'm actually out on that one. Uh, I think if you had made this prediction in july or like this time last year, I would have been with you. But now I feel like the longer IT goes and every new headline that is like actually the new elexa sucks. He does feel like the pressure is getting higher.

Well.

there isn't a new alex a yet. The new alex a that they announced over a year ced and having have shipped, think we know what IT is. They told us what IT is and then they didn't ship IT and he feels like.

but he has to arrive this one. IT has the best shot. Maybe I will revise my predation of all of these that the best shot of being OK.

That's probably true.

I think they have the most stability to wait.

Yeah, I do think the new ex is going to get a lot of people fired. That's my other take.

Well, that's my thing, and I kind of want you .

to not be OK IT will be so funny if it's not okay .

intelligent stuff, so funny when you see these things up. And i'm actually i'm with me because, well, no, i'm not with you. I'm not with you because I wanted to not be okay.

you head.

yeah, I think .

the have I just be a you is is a good.

We were home for thankful for giving in every time my mom at a timor and our alex a IT played an audio clipt from the movie. Wild robot and SHE. And he had not seen this movie.

X, and I have seen T, V. And so the thing we like processing be pop up. And then I would accept the timer. Like, what's wrong .

with the light? Amazon just built that and .

is like a fun thing yeah just like every time you do like it's like prosing like that does the thing that the robot doing that movie and max is like losing her mind, he thinks is the cute st thing in the world in my mom is like, why is my X A so much stupid with that.

actually such a perfect example of why ambient computing is so impossible. Like, what a perfect, lowest kes example of, like you have to build the thing that makes sense to everyone in the bloom and that's so hard to do.

Yeah, IT was just like out of context and make no sense is for the six year old. I think I love that movie.

They they roll this out to everyone.

They roll IT out to my mom.

That's not smart. SHE didn't turn IT absolutely not smart.

I am did well. I mean, I thought I was delighted in many ways. My mother's experienced of computers is exactly the same as maxis experienced computers in that things happen until they stopped happening and ask me to fix them, right? And then I have to deduce what happened here.

And I don't know that SHE ever went to my room and asked to talk to elexa with me on the phone today. See if he got this. Now.

have IT in the kitchen. They, I like, have to and keep you use them and set timers. And then one day, if you are relaxes way smarter and then everyone going to .

follow up .

their kitchen, join under both out so we see um i'm actually out join is just crossing our fingers and hope yeah mine is that I think this is this gets milder by the day I think, uh, cable T V is going to pretty much totally die in twenty twenty five like the idea that you are going to have a cable box through which you get television and it's a bunch of linear channels. And that's what you pay a lot of money for. A mostly watch is going to .

be essentially completely out of style. I have a number of five questions. okay? When you say pretty much die there, there won't be any anymore.

There will be some. But it'll be it'll be like the people who still get a well desks in the .

mail and which .

there are still people who do IT. It's still a thing we .

work today. Well, there are people whole runs.

There are still, i'm sure some you know, hundreds of thousands or millions of people who pay for amErica .

online email address.

yeah. And so that I think will continue more or less forever. But like it's going to die to the extent that IT is no longer an interesting business to the companies that n like the thing that comcast is doing where it's spinning off all of its cable channels, everyone is going to do that and they are going to just absolutely run away .

from o second poof question. Yes, youtube T, V and fubar and selling you're over the top cable, are they included?

They don't count in this. And I I grant that this is like splitting hairs on that one, but they are meaningful ly different products.

So if you're talking about like the x finally the bus, the box is really box. The guy that comes .

to the the cable that I buy from my internet provider, which is essentially what IT is now.

is gone to third. Third question, I can really tell us my they don't have spectrum boxes anymore. That would insane spectrum APP on their apple tvs, which does not uh, it's not great.

IT has a great international channels.

Yeah know me it's .

like it's super there. So they're paying spectrum .

for those channels. And then and probably the same as youtube TV SHE can watch IT on her ipad where where? shit. So that's like a big win does account.

No, I can't explain why we know counts as cable. I think that is the thing that is .

but that youtube .

OK let let me say this more. I can be what killing? I'm killing everything except youtube, T.

V, and who do with life? T, V. So killing all of IT except those .

two things. Okay, that's super out in this.

You're out in this way. I think I completely uninteresting to everyone, including the people that run these services.

My parents also have an illegal indian I P T V box. It's every channel for free, including locals and fork. And that is hay for the spectrum map on there.

No, they pay some guy on animo over the phone. Once here, the things you should redial that this is an entire economy, these things, what? Yeah.

okay, that's fantastic.

I was to say this episode, I think that I think .

your parents are on my side. I was a very.

the title. This episode was going to be really go to visit his parent. Now I just actually nelie gets his parents arrested.

And now I just blew up, like the entire in the economy here. This is what they talk about. You know, a guy.

there are scams. fantastic. It's great. right? To lize out. Train our.

I have still not I understand.

So I yes, you do thinks traditional cables going except youtube to other just keeps getting more cable boxes.

I don't have boxes and my parents don't have table boxes. I'm just not talking about my parents as much as you like as I didn't feel like .

this was just about I love my.

And they have a lot of the same coming with you. Let's get our parents to, let's get our parents to this podcast.

No, thank you.

But I guess some man.

okay, great. love. IT johana just picking random. I am reading this down. yeah.

And I have a duck. Every cable company, except for youtube.

T, V, is not going to. We ve been doing this thing where they are investing streaming and bank the money from cable. That's been happening for a very long time, and everybody thought it's going to happen for a really long time. And then IT isn't. And I think it's going to the the speed of that death of the cable money is going to increase so fast that by this time next year is going to be essentially a right off for all of these companies.

Literal figure, think of IT already.

We're get in first, right? Let's take a break and then we're going to get to our .

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Alright, we're back. Spicy time. Uh, let's slip the order.

Not spicy est, just spicy here. Nei, you go first. system. What's your what's your most medium prediction for five medium?

Yeah, walmart, walmart, walmart. K, this is your medium.

Medium is, is, is sisty. But you're not yeah.

I think there's .

only to this the third question .

level of the. He one of his big benefit, rer S A major investor, and tiktok, but he can't overturn the law that congress sari passed that says takes us, has to go absorb, have to kick IT out. So the number of options are very limited. And I don't think that he cares what happens, and I don't think the people on tiktok actually care what happens.

right? So if as long gest tiktok continues to.

as long as tick continue, very natural, they should sell IT, which is the thing of laws were designed to force into happening. And then trump loves a deal, whether not these deals are real, whether or not LCD factories actually get built. We love talking about deals. So then who are going to sell to to amazon on is terrified of tiktok because it's basically uvc. But even then, I think it's where and any trust concerns in other big tech companies will basically say no so you cannot stuck with the other big store that all tiktok is is a fun al in the .

tiktok .

shop yeah and hasn't the biggest sticking point in the .

algorithm yeah controls IT right.

What makes you, what makes you think that by dances going to say, okay, we're given at all .

will tell you what makes anyone think that people can perceive the quality of an algorithm like that was a very important question. A thicky like IT when tiktok was growing, this was important, right, right? Because IT was finding you interest that would like be really, really valuable.

And now it's kind of like, yeah, you can make that thing twenty percent worse and all the people are already on IT and really all you're going to give them to a shop and we can watch elon muss just like a dial is I grow them that will. And IT doesn't seem to matter that audience. So I I think there's less danger there .

than anyone thinks. IT does feel anew tally like the sort of perceived quality gap in like how well the platform knows me between real shorts and tiktok has gotten much. I think I for so long, IT was like, real was old. Tiktok and shorts was just like over here doing something else that everyone hated. I feel like all, all the same thing.

Now I bunch the creators feature to post the same stuff to the same platforms like, but this is my medium take. I don't actually know something happen. But if you're gonna sell IT, which seems like the most likely outcome because of the wise, they have to overturn a law that a bunch of republic c members of .

congress passed. Still hard.

even he isn't the amazon though.

I antigen le l.

yeah. And same for all of those other companies. What if its netflix? What if neffy is just like, what's up short form? Video, we don't tiktok now.

Yeah, it's IT. I don't think networks super I wants to be in that business like they don't want to be in in a user generated .

like specifically pitting itself against all .

of those companies. But and also they're they're not going na convert in the netflix subscriptions was the only thing they sell, right? Walmart, here's some garbage. I saw a man on teeka k yesterday trying to sell me a wall mounted hose reel is an innovation that I should buy for my family for Christmas.

And I like my dude, my dad, about that shit minards in one thousand nine hundred eighty two like what are we doing on this life form right now? And that's just where we are in tiktok. IT is just a store.

Yeah no, that's like there is a point where my whole entire feed was just hair products. And as I already have a hair .

iron and you're like my mom boats and arts.

my parent hair, I heard what I bought at minor google ds, man.

a real thing is just like of the best thing thing with east costers .

is like the most deeply was gone and store in the world is that .

your version of home.

it's superior, is corporate? Yeah this is like I knew minor when .

first I see history home deep.

Most the chain smokers I wanted figure clear and that .

works to me. Ah i'm actually in on this one. I like IT.

I think somebody is going to buy tiktok. yes. And I feel like walmart is good, bad as any.

So I I mean on this one, and I just believe tiktok arrives.

So that medium take no.

that was my d, my tiktok survives.

That was my child. Take, yes, all the social media survives and we get more right. sure. One mart .

seems nice. I love. right? I go next. My medium prediction, which I actually think might be spicer than I realized, uh, is that someone in twenty and twenty five is going to make an AI gadget that like actually kicks us and it's going to be a huge.

and this is our medium. This is my medium compared to my mild of alexa is okay.

Lake, I don't know IT probably won't be the rabbit r two or the humane A I pin two or but like maybe it's the next meta raby and smart glasses. They go like deep into more eee e stuff. Maybe it's like air podds something. So I don't know somebody is going to make a 感觉 that is like explicit about ai， and it's going to be awesome and tons of people .

are going to want IT. okay. Actually, mine is similar to my medium take, but we should all vote on yours.

No.

no, does not going to happen. What this deely ji I thing .

this is deeply really, I don't think spicy takes and this is deeply related to .

one of them OK. Well then you're not onna.

give IT to me. So what was your spicy take? Oh, sure. Yeah, I do. This is a rebuttal.

O, that's a good order.

A, I conclusively prevent to be a bubble.

OK.

it's blue truth. I, I just blue truth next year. Blue th, this is blue a eyes. Bu, everyone talks about the same way they make the same lofty predictions about what blue is going to do.

When do they do that all the time?

They are like, these headphones are onna rule. And you know, like, well, apple had to hijacked the entire blue to .

make their .

own lue is IT more K I 5g yeah。 In that case.

sure sure. Whatever garbage wireless really want to use, whatever garbage rios vertical you want to use, I go for, uh, but blue youth in particular was like an enabling technology that never end out right that you would have an ecosystem of products all over around you, that we're all blue tooth together. The smart home would run blue to slow energy.

All that something exists. It's there. You can go to the blue tube conference.

You can go the blue, can you? So, yeah.

the sig, do you remember six?

Do you remember everybody is obsessed with the like retail blue tooth where you would walk into a store like you would like blue with all the .

compounds on ah yeah yes, they still do that way just to track you, that is super happy every time we walked through the door of a store in the mall, it's like we found you again yeah and then people wonder why IT sound seems like I run listening to them now IT, just because you existed with your phone. And blue tooth, which again, the quarter benefits of blue truth pretty mild because apple, how to invent their own special blue tube to .

make airports ds work o which is lot of feelings do you know?

A I is on the exact same trajectory, is blue tube only ten thousand times is more expensive? OK. Okay, there is not one product that is bigger than ChatGPT that you can make a day.

I to, okay, i'm not with you and i'm not with you.

O okay, then where are you? I like that.

You just keep announcing. Yeah.

where are you there? My p no and no.

Where that by registry bottles on a prediction.

you did your prediction. Now what?

But if years is true, mind can't. Okay, right? If if we get that spice.

you chose .

your spicy icy. That's a reject spicy that he is.

are getting two space.

No, that's on a prediction. No point. If I is a bubble, I get no points, which is i'm giving that up now in order to rebuts David, who says the humane .

and is.

May I just sneak in dishes in .

here is my new restaurant comment or no?

Say he made his prediction there would be a good ai and i'm saying that .

requires bluto get to spicy.

Why i'm not say yes yeah okay.

I I don't think we're going to get a great AI gadget that everyone is okay. I'm going to can I do my medium now? Sure, please. So you're .

both out on mine.

I would like to respond to you just pick that as spicy because .

when we can come back OK add that to my spicy food, spicy advertiser.

a chelsey two. Okay, my medium was that matter releases another pair of the smart, the riband smart classes. But IT has a display in IT. It's like a heads up display. There's been rumors of this, and I guess they like more spicy version of this, is that meta continues to outpace apple in the race for smart glasses.

H, i'm extremely in on that one. I'm like every day I become more radical. Zed, that meta did this right? Apple to this wrung like the the story of twenty and twenty four.

I am writing account about that right now, and I believe that I love the ravens. I think the past they are taking is Better than the path apple .

has been taking. OK, I agree with .

meta continue. You like me on .

something the I sent my back.

you a big head yeah.

you do not use that. That's not different ideas. You can agree with him.

What SHE is a big at?

You have a big and you don't know use.

you're done. There's a big and tiny brain. I get I don't.

Yes, uh, look, all those things .

might be true, but I use them. And this is a maple stuff, right where they want. Let the photos automatically go to your phone. I just say, well, you on android, I think the camera is like just fine. The A I stuff is like extremely medium.

I could, I could take the rest of this podcast to show you videos of of, like the great moments I have with my kids in the right .

bank while you're ring sunglasses.

Yeah.

do you not wear sunglasses outside? You are limiting big head.

but perfect eyes that are not .

bothered by the I listen to that hard ai. And I stopped wearing sunglasses indoors.

And at night I spend a lot of .

time outdoors.

Look, I go running healthy to being to skiing. Very active. yeah. Ah very.

I die. I don't do any other things. That's our transitions are great. The real legacy of the brand classes is .

making transition in A N the .

story about how transitions and the traction company was going to a take off because of the matter ban, someone had a story. I thought that was the journal, some of the a story about how transitions are in now river because of vents. And I got the clear ones with the transitions pretty bad, bad and the night box.

the things up and they definitely still do the thing where you .

go inside and you still have sunglasses for minute a in my .

high school that transition .

er and every time I see them on the raybone I think of him and i'm like, I look like this kid and he .

was cool and handsome and is now in the yeah .

hoping he doesn't listen .

to I just want to be clear I see his kills with the prediction. I could have been, uh, you could have been in the one he broke up for years. Um I agree with the prediction that matter remains ahead in this category only because I think apple will not launch something that is as good as the right bands. I wish I mean, they will have to make something Better because rabbits are .

just medium and apple is a camera company as snap wants to say they are. But yes, I I think that's true. I think apples likely working on this.

And yes, there was the wall street journal the headline, these glasses are once a style joke and now they are for cool guys. It's like, no, you're just to lunch old days that twenty twenty four.

Oh, no.

That's just the when the medic came out, that's wrong.

Thanks to significant .

technological upgrades, transition lenses are supposedly swap. Are these ones to turkey? Two and ones now the ultimate glasses?

No.

okay. I did a transition one. It's a very good it's it's a very good vote.

Vote has a story from vote .

has a stories called transition once now my entire personality, someone is like a big transition is on the case the transition .

like I I don't know how I there's I am still trying to do some reporting on this. If you work at matter, I want to get in touch. They're working on the heads up display in a pair of rebounds. I think they'll probably be sunglasses, but maybe that well, they'll probably have to use transition lenses to display.

Thing is gonna a big swing too, because if that is actually IT, not only doesn't add more appeal, that actually kills a bunch of appeal. Because the thing that's nice about the ones now is .

they are mostly just sunglasses totally. I think they have to do something in between what they've been showing with ryan and what they're y've been doing with the smart glasses. And that is very basic information in your line about and so .

to show me a text message.

And that's why I think there is going to be A I potential. I don't think that's a killer. I don't think people buy them because they have a ee OK.

So and with you a .

little bit on that, like these gauges gonna get Better. And i've said repeatedly the meta glass of the best I you can get because they are not only about a eye.

So, okay, wait for you. We're going to move on for this. But the rabbins IT feels like it's the three things are, camera, make, slash, speaker, yes, A I, A, I rank those three things for you personally. Camera.

A I, audio, interesting.

So for me, at audio, first by a mile and then camera and then A I yeah like, I love them as like a pair python's or for making calls and and but I ve found other people are like, why would I just want to shout into the air when I have? Yeah, I can just wear air pots. IT will be fine. Ah, now I send this back. You don't you .

don't think that this is going to run the, I use IT to play music and set time's problem?

No, I think IT might.

But there there are worse things .

like that smart speakers. We're supposed to do all these things and it's music and timers and you're like, oh, and this kind of worry .

kind of is died yeah now it's on my face yeah yeah .

I got to know there's a worst thing that the we spend a lot of money to set time's problem fair.

And I mean, amazon has been trying to find places to put the eggs on in your body for a long time and has not found IT. Ah so aren't are all in on the specific one of meta is going to continue out his apple and glasses.

but only because apples I can launch .

anything that's my family there. No, this is twenty twenty five. So the other bet that you're making and this is that apple going to launch thing a face thing.

I think apple is .

computer something they are face.

they're like, okay, we put one computer on your face. Everyone believe what's figure out what our next face computer is going to be. Well, we're there.

Maybe they drop the .

Price of the vision curry yeah yeah and i'm saying I don't think they're going na watch .

another face. I don't think so. definitely.

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right? We're back. Spicy takes. These are the ones. Again, there should be a chance that this comes true.

But if IT does come true, you're not going to shut up about IT. yep. O, K, good. So good. right? Uh, I guess I get to go first this time. Uh, my spicy take for twenty twenty five is, uh, that everyone is going to give up on matter and bail on the smart home and we're just going to get to the end of the year and we're gonna like individual smart gadgets and that'll be fine. But this idea, like the big, beautiful, interconnected smart home, uh, is going to cease to be interesting .

to almost everybody. Okay, joy, do you want to respond to this is someone who .

just fixed your garage after weeks of effort talk, I just a one minute jua interlude on the garage, because the people do you want to know?

okay. Can get a music. C.

O, K.

it's happy. Like, and needs to be a happy trap. Like, a little bit like .

wim six flags. I will pick music in a later time. 一个 跳。

I'm producing, I reducing.

i'm reducing .

right now.

IT happened. My garage now opens. I can't say IT because if I do, my, my phone will open my garage at home.

But when I say, hey, blank open the garage, IT happens. This is after many weeks of text to the I, who responded three minutes exactly after, because he scheduled them. Yes, this is after many weeks of people responding on threads. Thank you all your all to all your listening ers.

We got a lot of feedback on the .

garage and came from dios.

This is simple to, this is the hardest problem in the history of the outside.

conspiracy theories about creed figure this area.

Well, I believe those now I i've come to I I understand this landscape Better than anybody ah maybe not as well. You and IT is a very hard problem to solve. So those people that call me in idiot, you are actually in idiot um but I just thank .

you to us. I did what you to do.

It's longer than a man.

Just I got the .

mirror, mirror what I pronounce.

I think I ros urs, okay, I got the miro adapter.

I get up on a latter. I sent you like a picture. I was wearing my matter ray bands for both music and for just taking photos and video of a therapy that was using the calm APP. Then we should get that as a sponsor.

I get up there.

I get everything all set, plugged into the sensor, put the sensor on the door. This is the whole complicated kind of wiring, not that. And IT doesn't work. And IT turns out, because my lift master is a newer lift master from two thousand eighteen, IT is using some propriete protocol to talk to the door opener on the wall and IT will not work.

So they have dr, the garage or button and they have labelled IT a security feature. And it's very good. And I guess .

there was a way I could have known this earlier, but I didn't, like, go through all the support forums to know, because my learn button on my lift master is yellow. And IT turns out, if you have the yellow button, you cannot use this.

Then you have A D, R.

M. But mirror, the genius is at mirror, who i've not gotten in touch with. But you are great people, great people.

They made a little adapter, which is really just the opener, like the opener you'd put in your like car. It's a hacked opener that connects to the mirror. And so I didn't.

I get IT. They sent IT to me in the mail and one week again, thank you to the people at mirus. Please sponsor to this podcast. I just love them about me.

They don't have that money. They're making one hat gargles al .

appearance one again for me. Anyway, they sent this to me. I set IT up and IT works perfectly.

Now I just, can I explain what's happening? I'd sent you like a paragraph, excited paragraph, of nerd speak. So, right? Okay, we can push the hardware button because it's D.

M. Yes, but we can take a regular garage opener that is D R, M compatible of this. And we'll just put a wire in the actual button of that garbage or opener so that when you tell theory to open the thing .

just will push .

the button on a garage opener. So you're just why coming out of a garage opener? Because that is crazy. Can you imagine crag federally knowing any of this information when he's like the future of a is in my smart home?

This is validating entry entire.

But I told you I wouldn't do this, and I did not want to go down this. I just wanted to thank everyone to tell them about my success.

She's very proud of.

I'm very proud of myself.

Now can you can you explain the one other bug that you had to explain to me, which is perfect, that didn't work right away, and why?

Well, that was with the, oh, no, that was with that. It's very good. Okay, so I go away.

Well, I don't even know. I was, I was an L. A, and I said everything up and I thought it's working perfectly. But yet the garage keeps opening and closing randomly.

And my wife is texting me saying, who is opening and closing the garage door and I not me, its should be working IT turns out when I pressed the learn button, IT started picking up some signal from someone around the neighbor od. So whenever they opened their garage, IT opened my garage, which almost LED to divorce. So I had to get a garage guy who then came to the house. How was so perfect? And now IT all works perfect.

all because you can't be bothered to pushed the button .

when you pull into the drive. But you know why the amount like this is we need some music, the amount of happiness and true pride I feel now when I pull out of my garage and say, hey siri, open the garage door is, I may have never felt up. And then .

fifteen minutes later, I just started rain.

That hasn't happened in at least two weeks.

I'm thrilled for you. We really the smart home is getting to the point of human oie robots to .

stand in your garage. Push button s yes, you have just put A T on the actual.

But just back to what you're saying, this is why I don't think I don't think .

matter disappears.

I think we actually see these two companies double down on IT. I think they're all going to start talking about how A I is going to be great for the smart home, and we're going to hear IT with that. Alex announcement is just like all these things, and this is the dream and our robots and the and the houses connected.

And none of IT is actually really material to real people because they have old shit and they have different standards. And there's D R M in the freaking button on the wall and IT doesn't work. And I think we're gone to hear from apple this year because they're currently working on this home tablet. And I think they are going to push matter and .

they going to say to push, they have no choice but to push because they not get something in these devices.

And a lot of these devices don't even have matter.

Yes, here, you just think they are going to give up.

You think I don't know that they going to I just think everyone is going to stop caring in every .

meat like I think they did stop .

caring maybe um but I I like even the companies themselves who have been making these long elaborate bets that eventually the smart home is going to become a thing that is like mainstream useful. I think everybodys just can start walking away from that next year because this is not going to happen.

Yeah I mean, when you get a new house.

late switches kick s probably fine. We've probably solve the late switches. I don't know, we need to worry about anymore.

No enough with the life which is in our house are are smart and do things yeah just all on their own that actually wants .

to .

get used to IT. You're like all this .

rules yeah right like there's .

one level up. I just bought some new tron cats and put them in the wall. And now when the sun sets are .

sponsored.

I don't know, will they? They have so much money that they own a custom slice of R F spectrum, which is why their products work the best. But I don't know.

they want to find you like those don't even go on down black, right? Don't go on sale yeah because .

they have their own our spect um and that what .

you going to do this is a .

real thing thing they brought their own slice of arash c trum. That brand in car from new commissioning. The occ is going to turn over to elon when you interview him.

I want you to ask about you trying to say us brand.

if you're listening and I know you are, come on, come on the show yes, I you say we'd love to have you tell me how you great.

What do you own a house? I do you own a house? Yeah, I was going to say, like if this is the year twenty twenty five that David buys a house.

Actually a good, a good prediction here. Like answer your prediction. Yours is no one will come up with a smart idea that compels you, David pierce, owner of the most garbage TV in america, to do any smart home thing.

Yeah, I love that.

right? That's the because like I have a whole smart home. It's just doing stuff all .

the time and i'm slowly trying to be new. I like he's my he's my mentor up.

Nei has never once described a use case and an amount of work to get to that use case that has ever .

made sense to me. I just described the garage.

T, O, and IT is perfect.

IT is so good. What do you mean? I just SAT next year.

my wife texted me and said, why is the garage or opening and closing by itself?

I M not a good solution .

of my you don't want to build .

a relationship that that's not the foundation of relationship that have for anyone.

It's bad times all the way around, right? You you're both out on mine. This is great. So I do .

I mean, I do believe it's going to be a big topic next year, so that's I hope so.

I mean.

to be clear, David's prediction is everyone walks away for matter. That's your specific .

prediction and nothing else to do. I wish, I mean, I wish, okay, my spicy one. The mac gets a touch screen. We've done this like every year.

every time we have done production together.

someone has done I know I I was trying to find the verge cast transcript of the time I predicted and I can't find IT, but I believe I said by the end of twenty twenty four.

I think last time we do this, we set time lands and we were all wrong.

We work dear was on on the podcast. And um but I I I I think we are coming towards that time. One day we will get there.

And I I think is IT just a mac as you currently imagine IT but it's a touch reen? Or does IT change more meaningful ly than that?

I'll have to do something.

What do. They do do you run ipad apps?

They already one I like.

like does he just get the ipad APP store natively?

Now I think they're just keep IT that way. okay? I'm just looking .

at touch targets being like I don't really want to poke my menu.

but I don't think they do IT until I know why they're doing IT. I want to I don't know that they even know why they makes the ipad right. Do you like the the ipad is an application environment.

They're like here's why they're just like, well, that keeps happening there. I don't think they're going to add cost and complexity. The mac must they have like a great reason to do IT, and they seem to be something enough.

Max, i'm walking this all the way back because I think I thought the last time I did this, I thought that they had to reached a point with the mac and the ipad where bringing them closer together was the only choice yeah. And they have not only resisted that we've pull them for the apart to the point, whatever. I just like turn this ipad into a mac.

I think apple silicon changed that. Like I think if if apple had solved like laptop processing, IT would have been different and the max would started to look more like the ipad and vice vera. But now like the the mac lineup is easily the best it's ever pen, yes, and is so compelling to so many people like yeah, I tend degree years ago would have thought that eventually the mac in the ipad of particular would eventually be the same product.

I don't think that any I I, I the spice follow up, whatever that is, the deep economy. If if you could turn your mac into an ipad and gain touch Green support, yes. Or you could turn your ipad in your mac and lose touch Green support, which one would you? Which one would you back?

I can take my mac is the first option.

So you have your mac sitting here, and I I can push back in the meeting. Now, this is my pad, and you get a touch train.

and I can take the screen off.

Now, whatever is just that, they can run ipad apps. So IT has a good N P. It's my pad.

And the other one is you got an ipad and a heyboer case. No, I boom, hit a button. IT runs back us. But the touch train stops working.

It's that, I guess. So I want a doctor. Ipad much more than I touch. Mac.

yeah, yeah.

And there's a bunches of you have to do like you. I would have to essentially like, run the two Operating system side by side. No.

making this hard core OK, you push the button. This is now runs ipad. O S, yeah, with a touch screen, with a touch screen.

but it's a mac. But when you run mao s disables the touch screen.

No, IT doesn't run mac. I'm saying this just becomes an ipad. 嗯， or you can take your ipad and you can run Michael s, and disables the definitely an ipad with macos s.

So saying, and I know the same, this is just the end of the argument, I think, for a long time, because I don't know why they don't know why any these products of touch means exactly. I thought I I know why the iphone has a touch Green. They have not yet solved the problem.

Why the ipad is? So maybe I am changing my to that. The ipad can run. Michael s.

yeah, that's the rao.

but that tell me that seems to the same thing. Mac gets a touch screen still. Michael s.

getting into I i'll give you both this one prediction that that one of those two things will happen that the I mean, it's really it's like the van diagram of and the ipad smash into which I think they have figured out .

they can sell a lot of both. I don't have to solve this problem. There is no pressure on them to solve the problem. Until there is some sort of windows tablet or android tablet, the print provides an ounce of competition to the ipad, and I like I know there are windows tablets and people like them in the surface exists, and that's a whole thing. They're not competition to the ipad. They're competition to the macbook, to the until there is one sliver of competition for the things that people use ipads for, they are just .

gna stay exactly the way .

they are. No, yes.

no, no, no.

no. I really want that to have that White spicy and that's why it's there. But my other spicy, I was going to be that tim cook steps down and then the markets.

the touch screen, I don't know him every day.

Understand what .

i'm saying that this time you cannot do here. You like your iphone, right? I can turn that off. No terrace. And he just got to do that every single day.

Last me like, what is your spicy as prediction?

And this is wild full space. This is wild. Hit me with IT.

Google breaks itself up, okay? They're just like you. This is not working than anymore. We're just going to we're to we're going to spin off our own companies, okay? This is the opposite of margin ia, which is the thing big companies do to create shareholder values when they're out of ideas.

I think google is just to look at the marketplace and say that were under a lot of regulatory pressure. And you know what, if we just born off youtube, just put IT over there, sign a big lucrative A I training data deal for google A I, and let this thing go be cable, the future of cable television, and compete with tiktok and whatever. And will that all go public in? The stocks will go up and google stock will go up and everyone stocks will go up.

And that's all anybody cares about. You can make the argument today absent and attract pressure, and you get to take youtube away from the antitrust pressure in the regulatory pressure. Could not just youtube does that.

that google antitrust problems.

though I have no idea, this is my spicy take OK.

But like, does that solve the scrutiny?

Chrome and the add, right? So all that noise, right? IT doesn't solve these problems. IT just takes youtube away from them.

Let's google say we've made ourselves smaller and less powerful because now the second most powerful search engine on the internet, and want.

yeah, every here is you too and we can you know the fact that we all were to other more friends and and who knows what messaging are using the OK because we what not only delete all our records, we have too many messages today. There's that the spice take as google solves this problem, the way that big conglomerate solve this problem.

What if google does all of its like secret messaging just on alo because they know no one attention like no lawyer would ever thinks that like seppa the alo messages. So that's just where .

google now. They're just like the one of this is why they're .

had so .

many along chat or me was .

after I was with duo, they watch out and together and alone. That was like we're going to put A I inside of your chats. So when you say do you want to go to the movies? It's like, oh, would you like to buy movie tickets? And that was a super good idea that everyone links and IT went really well for google. That was ten years, years ago yeah the number .

of deear bone we have sorted out glues messaging strategy stories that we were in yeah has here IT is here is the plan by deter uh, none of them came to best. That's my ice is take that's pretty good.

I'm out on that one.

Yeah, they want to I think .

I think if .

you had to your point, I if i'm right now, everyone know you'll never hear the end of this yeah .

that you they have to make you the C O of youtube. If if you're right now officially, they have to do yeah I think I think if you hit, said google breaks up in twenty twenty five, I might have thought long and hard about signing on, but google does IT of its own volition.

That's why I love IT. Someone breaks up google and fine, we're headed that way. Google itself is like, you know what? This is really hard.

Yeah, just just youtube bugle. Have fun. Create and shareholder value for .

the good of the people here. Uh, right, this is great. up.

right. Let me review. And then we're going to get that here. Uh, joannis predictions, her mild prediction is that a year for now, we're also going to be posting to a million social accounts. Um I mean on that realized out your medium take is that matter is going to continue out peace apple on glasses new in and your spicy one is that the touch Green mac and the ipad with mac O S some smashing together thing is onna happen there a new line or both out? I hope to the one I most hope i'm wrong about is that one because I want that that so .

that if that happens, i'm really event together. I will stand up in here.

I I deserve this. So that will be a good Victory. Imagine if apple had made a television how insufferable gene monster would have been. That's what I want for you.

I have never clapped at an apple event. I believe the sorry, I take that back. I believe I might have clapped when they announce multiple timers, and i've never, ever clapped a apple than other than that. But I will clap.

But they needed to say out loud. To be clear, i'm clamping for myself. Yes, journalism love IT.

right? H alizad. Predictions, the mild prediction, alex is going to be fine. Yes, I even put the ellipsis in here. It's going to be fine fine i'm out doing is out yes I .

think is probably true .

but I hoping and bedding against um the medium take is boma is gonna tiktok strAngely join in both in I love IT a and the spicy take is the google breaks the tough up a we are not in i'm giving you all versions of breakups even though you specified youtube I think go any about that but I that means .

I will take any little thing yeah right because google is also alphabet that's .

right so a right there .

was that part of .

google is part of alphabet .

and I I don't think that's ridiculous.

You have to decide now.

I am still out now, so give IT to you o any any alphabet company but not not one of the stupid moon shots that loses. Been to that. I'll give you way.

O, that's basically the only other one I will let me give you. Uh, my predictions are, uh, my mild prediction is that cable cv is going to pretty much totally die. I lize out. John is in. I still don't .

know what that means. I'm in if if the most generous reading .

is like we stop talking about, if I if I just make IT the cable box business is dead and boring, would .

you be true?

It's not true. It's boring. Already, but it's not dead. And and I think IT IT got boring faster than anybody expected, and I think it's going to get dead fast than anybody expects.

I think our minority investor contrast requires me to tell you the x index one box is a cool.

uh also disclosure nei produced netflix, uh, describes the verge, I don't know, pretty tty good. Um do you want to end on this one? This is your last chance. Yes, i'll take keep in mind that I am decided.

Yeah, I know you're gna give yourself this point somehow and it's like, fine.

realize I enjoy is that uh, my medium take is that someone is going to make an A I get that actually kicks us ah you're both out uh and my spicy take is that the industry in the world are going to collectively .

give up up a matter and you're both .

out out many.

So I got twelve months to figure out the answer to that question. What do you win?

If you win, i'm said, if google breaks itself up, I will, whatever that is. If I call that one right, I also, should there be more .

points for spicy .

tax but if yeah, he had so many spicy taste and .

then he also had the AI makes .

for nothing and A I is a failure of, well.

that was your other one yeah.

the bub, the bubble pops. No, I doesn't one yes.

OK.

that's yeah blue tube that's .

too spicy .

for this case it's is blue .

de like never head a bubble that popped. I was just kind like, yeah, it's not happening.

I think a lot of people think blue tube happened.

Do you find one person who thinks happened, like, in the way that people thought what happened?

Blue youth happened in the sense that is here. And you use IT, right?

Sometimes that works in your car. And some people have one of those A U E boom speakers. But like, and that's IT.

is there a hundred billion dollar blue to start out there? Like printing, if that is you, please email me. Like blue chip was .

at the point where they're like meaningful blue toothed security threats.

Yeah .

remember there is .

a blue star. Yeah I do think there was a whole C, E, S, where I was really just blue tue stuff, blue to stuff, the happy fork. Yes, blue to IT was blue to, but some of that really did happen.

I want to set to an entire precedence where they told me that they would combine blue youth and life so that you would use blue tooth to pay to a gage, that with an provision of a wifi, and you would get the best of both world. Apple, maybe, maybe that sort of work and maybe exist.

I did not. I know that you want to say like, okay, yes, apple added their things to blue tu to make a Better clearly. But airports.

they made up of ford's blue youth layer IT on top of blue tooth, and no one else gets to use IT, but without blue tooth in their entire, their entire explanation for why they have walked down the what's another, and like h two ship yeah, is because blue eth is and ensure they had to make their blue bu.

Apple would love to get rid of blue and just connect the apple devices to the apple.

to the apple watch. I, me, these are massive businesses .

that blue tooth were I and maybe .

one day we'll .

be an A I underpinning.

I'm giving us all. But the A I is blue youth is a take.

We're all in a is not luted is out.

The .

bubble will pop on the eyes actually .

the thing .

and i'm just looking .

at and saying, okay is and all it's going to happen .

is we're going we're going to be here next year. We're going to talk about this take and someones going to say, well, to be Better next year, which is all they ever said about blues. That's the only comparison.

mak. I like IT, right? We're going to do one more of these next week.

We have some other fun. Twenty, twenty five predictions have to do, but for now we're done. Thank you all.

Pretty as one.

right? That's if the forecast today. Thank you to new line and enjoy up for playing this very silly game with me.

And thank you, as always, for listening. There's lots more on, Frankly, all of the stuff we've been making predictions about all over the verge outcome. I'll put some links in the s as I can think of, but keep the locked on the website.

Clearly, twenty twenty five is gonna a year. We have a subscription now fun time to describe with the verge. There's just a lot that is coming.

And as always, check out the home page three sauce. Some have a peak. And if you've thoughts, questions, feelings or other predictions for twenty twenty five, you'd like to get off.

You can always e mail us at verge, cast at the verge shot com, or call the hotline. It's six six verge one one we truly love hearing from you. Thank you to everybody who is called in with questions for the metal hot line that's running on tuesday.

Tones of fund stuff. That's a really fun episode enjoying doing that. And if you have more questions, keep him coming.

We have a backlog of really, really fun ones. We have plans to do stuff with hit me up ready for him. This shows produce by liam James wilpon and areas verdict is vert production. And part of the box media podcast network will be back on tuesday with the meta episode that we've been talking about for a while and then back to our regularly scheduled programing for a couple of weeks before the end. There you see that broker.

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