E109: 2022 Bestie Awards Live from Twitter HQ
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Hey, everybody, merry Christmas, happy holidays. IT is the end of twenty twenty two. And once again, we're doing are bet awards. Yes, at the end of the year, we do our best to awards. This is where we give awards to the biggest winners, losers and many other categories. Is that you love with me again, of course, the sult of science, deep in his course, a vibes Harry doing salton IT was great to .

see you guys for dinner last night. Sex, we missed you. That was a lot of fun. We all got together twice this week for dinner, uh, while we are on vacation and uh, during our dinner we took a vote and sex, you are now the director of violent summit. congratulate.

congratulations. Yes.

the grip designed.

My first act is to veto IT. Okay, sorry to the fans. Also with us, of course, is the dictator himself to mah polypoetes er deep in his turtle neck phase and his vibes tell us about your winter vibes best step.

I mean, I can't believe that we all took over later. Hope for a week together. This cool.

It's been a lot of fun, I gotta say. Sak hub surprised jacko has the life hat of life hax here. He's figured out how to basically get everything required, all the restaurants of the reservations. It's been great. I have loved that.

We had a wonderful .

to an eight percent table for every night, and he doesn't once in advance every night.

two weeks out, every two weeks out, I can get a table vote, uh, for five, six nights and old and and then I invite, my best is out.

And oddly, IT turned out there there's only one person from jake outside.

just yes, because result is a room for .

the rest of us to show up.

We had a wonderful time. Uh, I picked up the check for the nachos and trim. T brought six thousand dollars of vine.

I brought my own also to the restaurant yesterday so we could open the line properly.

which was wonderful. We ve had a wonderful time. And of course, with us looks like he had to work over the Christmas break. Uh, sax, how are you doing, brother? You're working today.

I'm good. I'm saying IT out somewhere.

Well, come on, you could be honest at the twitter H. Q. I recognize that incredible architecture and design. They spend so much money on that office space that's definitely beautiful.

often own. But spoke coffee shop here called the purch.

Where are the people that work there?

Too soon.

too soon. The pill are working too hard to be hang on the coffee shop.

man.

We open sources to .

the fans and. 好， so let's get started with our best awards. This is a very controversial. We start with a political award. And last year, you know that this is are just so we clear this is not the show that next week will be. The prediction show this week is our winners.

Cue the music.

Yes, cue the music. Twenty twenty two predictions. This is what we predicted for the best award for biggest political winner. I said ron descendest and so did David sacks. We predicted .

in me you said IT after me and the way you introduce you, you said, what did tucker crossing writers come up with? I said, the scientists. And then you said, the entire.

you started already. literally. I'm try to give you your flowers.

You're already who are party.

Okay, take A D, C. You're going to get your flowers. So bron descendest obvious. Ly, a big winner. Uh, so those those were great predictions.

Freeburg with a wall car there, he predicted put would be a winner in twenty twenty two that when fell a little flatted. IT, not our our friend. Freeburg, not a winner? No, I think he.

you know, I mean, my projection was really built on what I thought would be a big kind of influence that he were game this year. Whether he's viewed negatively or positively, he certainly at the center .

of the stage right now. Now cheh, you're twenty two prediction. This is your prediction last year for this year was that the biggest political winner will be using ping.

Okay, now we go to our actual biggest winner. This is where we tell you who we thought was the biggest winner of twenty twenty two. Lets are with you sax, who is your biggest winner for twenty twenty two political bigelow winner?

This was the prediction that I nailed, as as you mentioned, IT. So the red way visitor, where else but IT crashed over florida hard so distances is my pec. He won't reelection by about twenty points.

And his cotex Carried four in new top heal seats, which tap to be the exact size of the top. Majority of several polls have now shown him beating Donald trump by significant margins for the twenty four geo pee nomination he is shatter ing. Fund raising records for is now the fast scoring state. So he is my pic for the biggest winner, political winner of twenty twenty two.

great. Who is your biggest political winner?

Chema, I mean, IT was all, this is a decision. Pink, you know, there is no single person in the world that is now as powerful as this one met. He um has complete authority, italian control over one point two odd billion people in twenty percent of the world's GDP in a large amount of the world's debt, including a lot of U.

S. dollar. Det, and so you know that's pretty. There's there's it's hard to find anybody that one nearly as much as he did.

okay. Now to you football, who is jw biggest political winner of twenty twenty two?

I mean, I think your the sentence and jean ping calls were really like, good. I think the biggest surprising into winter for me is like, you know, unexpected. And that would be the land skii um from the ukraine. I don't think going into this year people paid as much attention to him.

He was certainly not a sn hero but coming through this conflict and I think leading the story line a about our common enemy of the west um and common enemy of democracy being vladimir putin, uh really clad, have made him a superstar, a hero on a global stage. I think that evidence by the fact that he's in the White house and gave an address to the U. S. Congress s yesterday so I I would make him kind of the biggest winner of the year.

It's hard to go against the anta. So know he he clearly uh as as sacks correctly pointed out, gone into the lead. We'll see if he can be trump in the primary. I had my doubts but um he does seem to be pulling in some of those modern right. I don't understand .

why you guys say he's a political winner. What did he win? He hasn't run the nomination yet. He got reelected to a state that he had before twenty twenty two. So what did he win exactly?

I think a couple of one is, when he won election to the government ship four years ago, I was by lesson than one percent. IT was a tiny margin Victory. This was margin of almost twenty percent.

He had coat tails, and he is now the front runner for the G. O. P. domination. And twenty four, I think you can argue, you can make the case and maybe he's speaking too soon.

Well, i'm glad you brought that up because if you look at the data, you know, I think in the last seven, eight nomination cycles, the person has been leading the popularity contest going into the I O causes has not nomination. He's peaking too soon as that's a .

possibility because when you the front running event takes shots to you, on the other hand, he if he stays this dominant, he will drive out other contenders out of the primary. Any may be to slide fy IT. And if if you can just be distances with trump in the primary, he has sends much Better shot than if his trump is a bunch of other chAllenges.

And I think that if he continues to pull this well within the republic lan party, I think trump might not run again because trump definitely does not want to a risk being a loser in the republican primary. So yeah, there's always front run a risk. But it's hard to say that coming out this year that he wasn't a huge political winner.

If you to chAllenge all the people's pics, I would maybe chi the no question that he's been A A global media hero. But two thirds of key is currently without power. Eighty percent of key doesn't have water.

Thirty percent of the ukrainean power stations have been destroyed, nearly half of the countries without power. There's something like eight million displaced ukrainians in the country, and over one hundred thousand ukrainians have been killed in this war. So yes, he's been a very strong cosmetic .

war leader for them.

Free .

advocating for his performance as a leader am advocating for his accumulation of political goodwill.

not IT. okay. Uh and is winning the war uh so against pretty good.

Is that winning? Well in in war .

they say there nobody wins, but it's certainly Better than having your country taken over by putting so somebody argue that's winning. Let's go to biggest losers, biggest losers. Uh, in twenty twenty two, we predicted, again, this is our predictions from last year and they will go on to our actual for this year.

Uh, last year we predicted a trial, said the progressive left sax said Nancy policy freeburg you said U. S. Influence globally interesting and I said the extreams, both biden and trump, let's go with our predictions are sorry with our actuals for this year to moth want a google for this time who is your biggest political loser for twenty twenty two?

I mean, I don't think it's is written about as much, but the progressive left did see as much failure as the mega right. So they were a huge loser. I mean, to the except that anybody thought that left to know quasi socialist policies and politics was a winning strategy, I think that was pretty soundly refuted, even in places that were pretty stanshy democrat.

IT was really difficult for the progressive left to do much of anything but lose. So I think that was a really powerful and important repudiation. And I think IT, it's marginalized as them to a bunch of you cook almost. And I think that that's really healthy for politics going forward.

So your prediction and your actual are gonna the same progressive left.

I think they were the biggest political loser in the united states at least.

okay. Yeah, eliza warn, we don't hear people talking about eliza warn or burning centers much this year.

yeah. And I think that the biggest political loser outside the united states was probably the european union.

You want to expand on a little if .

you just think about the corner that they painted themselves into, how much they had to basically, literally, go one hundred and eighty degrees away from what their policies were. You know, there was a huge raft of whether IT was Green esg kind of vote liberal politics that manifested itself in all kinds of national security decisions and energy decisions that in this last year, they literally had to undo in order to stay alive. And that makes that whole political construct, I think, very fragile. So they were, they were a pretty big political loser outside the united states.

Okay, sex can be hard here to guess this one. But sax, who is your biggest political loser in twenty twenty two, I have no idea who you're going to pick you.

By the way, I got policy right last year that he did lose the gavel. So you've got to say that the war in ukraine was the biggest event of the year. And obviously, you can spread the blame around to a lot of people, starting with putin, because these one who ordered the invasion.

But I would say this is a slightly different take on the category, which is biggest political blender occurred on january twenty seventh of this year, when blinkin said that nato's door is open and must remain open, and that is our commitment. He basically shut the door. He cabinet the door open, but shot the door on any means of a diplomatic of time to end this conflict. By promising russia, the ukraine would not become part in nato. That was the single biggest diplomatic blender of this year, or maybe the last couple of decades, because there's a good chance we could avoided this disastrous war if we had just been willing to close natus door.

Wonderful, great, crisp answer. Thank you for that nice and tight freedoms. K, who is your biggest political loser for twenty two?

IT was a tie for me between jaron power and lives trust. Lives trust just has to get recognition here for only being an office for forty five days as prime minister the united kingdom I mean I think that is uh cannot be overlooked uh the um uh some of the the policy and and folks that cheap in in office uh because you know massive chaos IT was just A A clear uh this function over a very short period of time uh jaron pal I think this was a big surprise this year to see how the fed chair became um so politicized and and his role became so politicized both kind of the the left and the right finding reasons to question uh his leadership um and his decision making.

The failure to raise rates soon enough LED to massive inflation is what you will hear from one contingent of politicians and the public at large and then the rate at which he's raising rates now to catch up to the to come inflation is causing people to complain on the other side. So there is really no one that seems to be happy with your own pal. And I think that a, that that was A A shooting star that teams to have completely lost its ster k.

So the fan, yes, good pull there. Okay, mine is pretty clear. And objectively, IT is, of course, the gap, the red wave failed, turned into a trickle. A trump is back and I believe there's a good chance he will win the primary rov y way to complete unmitigated disaster for republicans. They caught the car and plus.

Equality and having to deal with that women and the L G, B, T, community vote and they have long memories, the top, the biggest political losers for me. Okay, i'm sure sex as no, but there. So we will move on to the next category, uh, which is.

by the way, if you say IT that way, then you know the biggest political loser in twenty two were women. Look at like fundamental human rights were stripped away from fifty percent of the population. So that's not cool. And they could .

left IT alone and they could have .

left IT alone.

Well, if what you mean is that the issue was sent to the states in each state, then he gets to decide, then you're right. But but if you look at the battles have happened at the states, even red states like kentucky y in kansas have rejected the subsequent political push to outlaw abortion. So IT has not turned out to be just by .

the fact that all of these red states basically reconfirmed and and trying the woman's right to choose may actually go more to show that the supreme court is totally at a touch and that they didn't need to touch roby way, and the fact that they did open up, you know, a huge can of worms in fifty states that now going need to go to judicatory thing where IT look like actually that decision even back in the day, even though the way that I was done, you know, there is a lot of room for improvement. Clearly, everybody agrees with that, but was actually, after me, know, fifty plus years, reasonable law. And so now that you took that law way, now folks, even in the red status, like now IT was fine, which means that this whole thing was a huge political campet more than IT was actual societal intention.

okay. So we are going to move on now. I just i'll my final two sense to that. As I said, I do think women and the L G B T.

Community have very long memories, and the people who in the moderate or not, going to forget how they were treated by the G O P. In this specific issue. So biggest political surprise within the predictions last year.

But i'll just run down what everybody said was their political surprise. I said the fact that kala haris was sideline was pretty prising to me. And uh, that's continued to math.

You said joe mansion, with your biggest political surprise plan. Yang kan, uh, winning sex. That was your biggest surprise.

And friedberg, the genuine six crowd making IT into the capital during the insurrection was your biggest political surprise. So here we go. Are twenty twenty two biggest political surprise? sex? Let's start with you. You have a lot to say about politics.

go. Well, the biggest political Price to me was no red wave. So, uh, I met.

I got this prediction wrong. You know, I got all my previous ones right now. I'm going to MIT.

I got this one wrong. I believe that the elector would focus on the fundamentals records. The country thought we're on the wrong track.

Three quarters think we're in a recession. Nevertheless, the republicans did not do nearly as well as predicted. The only gain nine seats s in the house actually lost the seat in the senate.

And I think that that had something to do with canada equality and of course, the whole election denial narrative basically was a disaster for them. I hope that the republicans move on and stop talking about the past. What voters want to hear about is the future.

Berg, did you have the biggest political surprise to?

Yeah, it's also the failure of the red way. I mean, that was my my pic. I think the consensus going into the election was with uh, you know rising inflation and the disdain that everyone had for the way politicians kind of managed just through cover and managed just through the economic recovery. IT was inevitable to see a flip and IT didn't happen. I think obviously, we talked about why that is, but that was a big surprise for everyone to math.

What is your biggest political surprise of twenty twenty two?

Trimm's prohibit a the salute, toothless lessons of mega. And Donald trump. I mean, he was just a scarlet letter. If you were anywhere near the guy, you were gonna SE. And that surprising, considering how traditional republicans were pandering to him up until, Frankly, just a few months ago. So I think that we exposed the emperor of as having no close, and that he more journalizing and sidelines candidates uh, into a frinch following that cannot go mainstream that was he was really surprising to see how stark that was this year.

fantastic. I'm going to a build on york mmh. Uh, I had two here. Number two was roby. Wait, but we've beaten that, I think and we discuss that as much as we possible.

Could my number one building on your smart is that despite what's happened with trump, the documents that the are his cases in the united stay in new york, uh, about taxes despite all of this, the january six interaction, despite this, trump is still viable. I can't believe he's still viable, and that he is gonna be out there in the primary, and he's gna have to debate scientists. And I don't know that scientists can beat him in a debate.

I think he might win. So this is completely scary for both me and sex that that is terrifying. Sex is nights and mine.

Well, I think he's mainly viable in the minds of the magi dependence and the mainstream media who want to keep him alive. And the administration wants to keep alive and not do anything to keep alive and in the news, and you love keeping him in the news. So I say, yes, it's a code dependent relation between the mainstream media, which you sometimes front for.

And trump, well, be careful telling .

me what I think. J, L.

well, I wish the republic lan party would finally take otherness of this disaster that has trump and tel him that no business but you guys keep him in the game, and the fact that is viable again, your personal nightmare in mine, okay, biggest business winner. Everybody excited to get off politics right now and get to our killzone, which is business. So last year, we had predictions in this category.

I had said disney, that's an up and down prediction. I'll get into that in a moment, Timothy. I said small and medium size businesses.

The old s nbs. Sax said, rise of the rest of fly over states and freeburg, you said, trip, a trip. Let's start with you smes. What did you get right?

What did you get wrong here? Um I mean, I lifed IT is completely missed the global micro shift that we embarked on in full force starting in key one of this year. IT was IT is the most important business story of the year. It's just like we have an absolute complete regime change and by the way, that regime change is so complete.

And so you know um thoro that had even touched japan just a few weeks ago, sorry, just a few days ago, where japan, who you know finally yielded on this idea where we're going to have negative interest rates in yield curve control, even they finally broken and raise rates. So IT is an absolute worldwide sea change in how we need to think about risk. And I think that's worth talking about a little bit later in the show. But that was the single biggest business .

story of the I said, even though on another prediction, when you ask what the biggest business loser would be, I think I said that I would be asset classes that have been pumped up by the floods, money .

printing.

because you have to feel I right. But what I didn't connected to, where all the asset classes actually got pummel. So I kind of conceptually understood that rates were rising, but I told underestimated the magnitude of the shift. The way that grow stocks will get hammer, the way that cyp to would get destroyed. The fact that like tiger, basic up blown out the industry. I mean, I had the right general intuition, but I didn't translate IT into the specific asset types and the magnetite of the shift and also the like, which must have a real regime change now in how markets are viewing stock performance.

Really incredible. Uh, freeburg, let's get in on this. This is somewhere where you can contribute deeply. What do you think about your take last year and you still believe in stripe?

Yeah, I mean, look, it's a it's a business that obviously benefit greatly from the pandemic and the adoption of um you know the payment processing infrastructure that they build across the across various kind of e commerce platforms. I ve i'm not an investors, so I don't have any numbers, but there are public reports that have highlighted that the revenue increased sixty six percent this year.

They indicated that they're probably going to experience significant revenue slow down with the recession ahead. But IT still seems like a super high quality business. Uh and you know valuation wise, who knows what things are, are going to be worth when they ultimately come to market? There are certainly no one going to are going public right now. So at some point will see you know whether valuations play out. IT seems like continues to be a very strong what one of the strongest private businesses that's being built in silicon valley.

we will get to twenty, twenty two biggest business winners in one second. I will to say for disney have mean what a swing bob chapel uh, in and then out and how Bobbye back. So I feel like I got this one wrong and right at the same time, I still believe in the company.

I think they're to have a big win. Let's get to our actual biggest winner of twenty twenty two sex. Why did you lead us off with your biggest winner of twenty twenty two for business?

I said lucky Martin. Along with other defense stocks, lucky marn, which makes javans and high mars, is up forty percent the past year when most been wait down north of grammar, also up almost forty percent. And even some, the lesser performers like ratio in general dynamics, are up about almost twenty percent in a terrible market environment.

The fact matter is, war is terrible, but IT appears to be good business. We sent so many weapons to ukraine that there is recent press reports that are the us. Stockpiles of missiles, javelin s and stingers are now depleted.

So these companies are going to keep doing well for the next year at least. Now there's a new appropriation sAiling through something like forty four billion of new funding for the war. Now over a hundred billion dollars, mcconnell h says this is a republicans number one priority. This is now by partisan concern. And if you think the war is expensive this way for reconstruction, that's estimated to cost at roughly a trillion dollars to build a ukraine back.

Sex question about that, are these when we fund these wars I have heard different versions of this can get a clear answer when we provide weapons um and systems like this, are they not on account and we ask for money back at some point, do you know? Answer to that question.

you think we get money back .

seems to be sometimes that we do. So that's why I was asking. I think it's something there has been clearly look.

I think the the war has been phenomenal business for the military industrial complex that's we're seeing here are not so great for us. The economy .

fever yeah I mean.

I think guys will remember last predicted energy and defense to be the best performing socks for this year. Sex is right. I think defenses up forty percent. So I kind of went with the bigger uh oil and gas companies um are up uh h you know across the board about forty seven percent uh in terms of equity value in the public markets a year to date uh compared to the S M P being done about twenty percent uh so over the short term, I would argue oil and gas companies.

But I think that over the long term, there were a couple of big breakthrough moments uh that I would give kind of the winner, uh, in business that will benefit over the long term to open eye and fusion startups. And we will talk more about why uh for those two, obviously later when we get to the big gest winter in tech and science. Um but a short term, oil and gas, they benefit from the supply constraints in the conflict in the ukraine. And no, I think open and fusion sort of well.

by the way, I mean, just just give freeze some credit here. You actually predicted the war, or you .

predicted a war, predicted this war kind of rising to the center stage. And the defence energy there was a huge prediction .

because I don't think most people, even most analysts, what they were surprised even when the invasion happened. I think people are still very surprised both that poon would order IT. But also, if you study the situation, I think you'd be surprised that we didn't negotiate harder to try prevent IT.

I trained IT to I. I bought an energy T, F.

That worked up for me, okay, to matha biggest business, winner of twenty twenty two.

nick, and throw up. But it's basically any single person that understands the following formula. So if you this is the so good, this is the, this is the capital asset pricing model.

So what is this? This is like before you make any investment. What IT actually tells you is here's the rate of return that you need to generate above the risk free rate in order for you to justify making that investment. And if you really understood the capital as a pricing model going into twenty, twenty two IT would have been difficult for you to not make money.

Because all of a sudden, as the ten year flexed up and as you know, the volatility, particularly of things like text talks, went crazy, you could have figured out where you to park your money and all these people that have built businesses around this capital asset pricing model. So you have companies, obviously. So you know you have sectors, the economy like defense or.

Energy stocks, consumer goods and staples, they all had moments where they all did well. But if you take IT one step above the organizations that actually ran big macro books or really understood how to alyth nally implement this capital as a pricing model, just ran roughshod over the markets. And you know, said in a different way, it's sort of my background, which is, you know, if you understood the capital as a pricing model, you would have been a massive there and the bear god fed this year to a degree that none of us could have anticipated.

okay. So am I correcting the capital asset pricing model? Is the biggest winner .

or no people that understood IT.

people that understood IT got IT? okay. And for my biggest winner, I went with ChatGPT, slash, OpenAI and their partner, microsoft.

Why did I pick that as the biggest winner? Well, on my other podcast, as we can start up, we play a game. ChatGPT verses the first result of google and min. I could not tell the difference.

And in the fact we picked ChatGPT answers often above google, google, one of the greatest of businesses and franchise ever created, has no answer at currently for ChatGPT because google business model is to get you to click on an ad between links. If you give the actual answer, then the person doesn't stop clicking. If they stop clicking, google stops making money.

There is no business model in search if the person gets their answer because they're done. This is an existential threat like we have not seen. And our friends, sam altman has a line ChatGPT flash. Open an eye with microsoft. Microsoft, I think, is going to release a and as a prediction as well, a search engine with open .

eye that has a significant .

impact on google's franchise. We didn't think this whatever happened and it's here. okay. The biggest losers in business, we made predictions last year. I said in twenty twenty. I predicted in twenty twenty one the biggest loser in twenty twenty two would be crypt on, by the way, freeburg, you agreed with me and .

we noted that with yes.

that's correct you .

said.

and try maths VISA slash master card begin to that and sex you said, asset classes is benefiting from government pumps. Very interesting. The fed stopping QE. interesting. Anybody have comments on their predictions or each other others predictions from last year .

on a percentage basis? David absolutely nailed IT sucks. Absolutely nailed ed IT. On our dollar basis, the biggest business loser of this year was big tech.

And I think that you saw three things happen, which I think you're important for the future. The first was IT was the most crowded trade both by professional money managers as well as retail. And that fever finally broke in the last half of uh in the second half of this year.

And now going in to into these last few weeks, you're seeing a lot of panic. Selling to cover losses and other things. So I think that um number one, that happened number two, regulators basically said begin to go after these guys every single which way we can. And the number three, I think IT started to change the innovation cycle where people now actually believe that they can't outspend because folks were not tolerated and the things that they're spending their money on seem kind of foolish. And so I think the, you know, big tech is probably not discuss enough, but IT was a huge loser for this year in terms .

of what happened to them. Twenty twenty. Choose actual biggest business loser chaos as big tech freeze. G, who is your biggest business loser for twenty twenty two?

I mean, this one is just a simple F, T X. I mean, that was such a incredible, a revelation of the scale of the game and the fraud and the craziness that went on. And I think what was interesting about F T X is that had implications not just for crypto and not just for kind of offshore regulatory, not just for fraud, but also for the investor, is we had a whole debate about whether the press and journalists failed to kind of appropriately investigate this guy rather than give him accolades because he said the right things, which he said he did over I am.

And investors failed to do relevant amounts of due diligence or former board and have proper governance over him because they wanted to be part of the hot new thing and everyone had capital to deploy. And I think what was interesting about the F, T X failure, IT didn't just IT wasn't just a failure due to fraud, but IT revealed so many parts of kind of, I call IT, uh, you know, systemic laziness and and systemic kind of blind eye and systemic bias that allowed and enabled this to happen. IT was really a revealing kind of failure. And that's why I can give you the reward.

mr. David ax, who is your biggest business loser of twenty twenty two well.

you can't mention this. Um I pick Bobby chapel is the former disney C. E.

O. He was ig's handpicked successor three years ago. Then the pandemic kit was shut down the theme parks. And then I think the big mistake was lowing himself for male by work employees into picking a fight with decentish over the so called don't say gay bill that caused the sentiment to reality by threatning the special privileges that disney enjoys in the state. And then he had I G undermining him behind the scene. This is revealed, I think, is an a wildering journal story that he was growing ing to insiders, that chappel was not listening as advice, and he was undermining conferencing with the board. And recently, check back was force out.

Nigger was put back into fantastic tic choice for the biggest loser.

How brutal does I 个 look in that world street？ Would anybody work for him?

Yes, he is incredible. He looked terrible. I agree. I read that piece twice. Actually, the CFO calling him up. He was the one who stabbed him to in knifed chapel is a great world. I don't.

I don't think that that happens without the support of the person waiting in the wings.

Hey, listen, there's a couple of jobs. You never quit. You never quit a hit T. V show. You never quit a hit band like Roger .

water. I go through the theatrics of like grooming somebody, putting them in your job and then undermining them. Like I I all am .

saying is if you're he made a mistake, I think he made mistake.

he quit and he wanted IT. Also like if you're good up and coming, I mean, what do you do if like all of a sudden, like you know, you have the opportunity to get room for that job, which seems release risky yeah I mean.

I think bob biggar realized when he in that piece, they say he went on his yard. His wife didn't come with them. The washing journy ece is incredible and he's cupboard and he's seventy seven years old, not just like the only seventies. Why would you give up the greatest job in the world? So he went back and we took.

didn't disney have a Mandatory retirement age?

But this, my point is he was so he was so prolific, he could have extended. Why not just extended and be done with IT?

no.

Did you guys read? Hit the booky wrote the right lifetime? yeah. And I think that what was interesting about that was the entire thing was built around a series of deals that he did. IT was like, I did this acquisition and I did this acquisition and I did this acquisition.

And everything for him was building this, this, this empire by doing deals and someone whose storyline and narrative that they tell of themselves that's built, uh, as a series of deals is a deal junky. And you're not going to be a deal junky where that your excitement, that's the thrill, that's the adventure that you get out of life and then you go and sit on a yacht, you're not doing any deal sitting on a yacht and you're gonna to get back to that. And I think it's less about kind of management and product. And I was much more about being in the mist of doing deals and why you .

came back if this was part of ig's diogo tragic, get back me to say, like one of the ways he did IT. I mean, chapel had the right instincts, which is when this whole florida debate happened over.

don't say a highly contentious.

no comment. No comment has instinctively to stay out of IT. But then I G made some statements about how companies have to live with their values, not good stuff.

And then the employee started, you know, again, a mounting him to get involved. And he took the, and he got involved. And what he didn't expect is that the santis wasn't in her.

This roll over the scantily hit him back really hard. And IT costs them economically. And then everything is arrival.

And in the first interview that I never gave when asked about this question, he was like, no comment. So I would .

get politics anymore. The politics .

anymore IT was arise that was not chapel to basically .

get involved in politics and then chapel basic was became canon father for the scentin. And and then I just work. We're out of this now. I mean, how old diabolic .

is that where typic said we're going to .

take away your P N S. To each of the leaders that is like just newera them that he based said, everybody's under the CFO, everybody's going to be on one p that infuriated all the creatives and then he went to war with sleet johanson over a ten million dollar settlement for her black widow. He couldn't handle talent, he couldn't handle the politics, and he wanted to control everybody. Piano, just unfold a after unfold a congratulations to my guy by a gar.

I on the star, you think is in the best possible way.

in the best possible way, which means the disney stock is going to go up. Yes, i'm buying more disney stock this year.

Is, is all that the woke progressive politics that he projects? Is that all just a game to mask what a vipers nest there are? Executive sweet really is.

Are you telling me that disney is a political corporation after a ison er and bob bigger and all of Michael orbits I mean is the history of disney is the greatest job in the world IT is game of thrones to get that job and bob I agger got a back. He's my guy. I'm sticking with him.

K, and they have the best I P in the business. I don't care how he gets that job back. He's awesome.

I say the IP at Warner media is a real throng contender. I mean, that White, luis, we were time about this yesterday. How good White lotus a season, who was the increase is incredible.

How H B. O produces extraordinary hit after ordinary hit. The quality and the consistency of that quality coming out of HBO is like nothing else.

You would go, I mean, look, avatar two. I did not like avatar one. I thought I was junk avatar is getting paid for being junk as well.

Not everything that comes out of disney is a hit. They certainly the best franchise. But man Warner media has a lot to contend with. And uh, here they could end up in a real chAllenger to disney in the years ahead.

Sax, did you watch the White latest season til? yes. And okay, we no problem. IT is absolutely fantastic. We have to do a little fan's service here. What did you love to mah about wild season to give the fans a little service here away?

It's on season too. I haven't see season. I don't even know what you guys are talking about.

O is to show in television.

Well, i'll tell you, what's incredible is there is a diversity of characters, and they weave the super like, you know, interesting story together. But each of the characters are so distinct and the characters are played so well. I mean, we were talking about, um know what kind of a dinner life, and I talking about who our favorite character was on the show.

And everyone has a different answer, and everyone has a different reason. And then there are characters that you hate. But the fact that you hate them and the fact that you despise them draws you and you drawn into these characters. I think that the way that they kind of portrait and the way that the characters were acted by the um by the actors uh and then the way that they all kind of weave together to tell the extraordinary story, uh IT was really um IT was really compelling and I was like just super impressive uh directing, acting.

writing everyday for of scenes in season one and season to which I would say are unbelievably psychologically violent and there's just no other way to describe like how they just explore and in and IT by the way, they do IT with simple shots. Very simple dialogue is almost non chant in the way that they present these truth bombs and you have to sit there and process IT and you're just like, oh my god, it's just it's wave afterward.

It's an incredible, incredibly well written show. The character development is extraordinary. Amazing production and set design.

by the way. Also, I think you do you can remember in season once .

sax will remember this good sax watched the season on. The family is sitting at the table where they're watching the hawaii dance and paul, the guest of the family, gets up and leave. SHE can't take IT anymore.

And then the next day they're a discussion about IT and the father says something about, I think, hierarch or imperialism or something and IT goes around the table and SHE just dead pan SHE says, well, maybe it's just time for others to eat talking about like fixing these wrongs. And I had to listen to a two or three times i'm like, oh my god, that is that is a line that just sticks in your brain. There's a few of those in in that show that I think and I was saying.

like they, they, they really draw you in. The set design, the production design is so compelling. You, anna, be there.

You, anna, be in that experience with those characters. Apple suit, yeah, you're early. Curly brought the pineapple sweet. I mean, then in this season, that whole hotel, I looked at the hotel, by the way, online, they hadn't know there are their own set design. People come in and reduce the hotel, but IT is an actual hotel.

and they just made IT so magical. Yeah, I was such an increase we should .

make wonderful.

I'm working on my genre for college.

Tell you your director, David sax.

my biggest loser, was crapped out. And I think they'll be a subsequent domino to fall, which is now that gary g. And at the S, C, C has F, T, X and the F T T tokens as the grist. He's gona go down the list of other tokens and he is going to start doing more prosecutions of griffis in crypto. Biggest loser for me for a biggest business surprise let's see, even get acts bank engaged in the conversation now that we're not talking about art and life sex last year, your biggest business surprise that just .

produce the movie about dolly I .

know he is i'm joking with a music was and he sold IT to mark cuban. Congratulations on the cell.

David. I guess me and you in our best .

seat now fantastic. In twenty twenty one, our selections for biggest business surprises. I was very surprised by dowse chmagh, by moderna sx, by tech, moving to miami and freeburg.

You were surprised by N. F. T. What were we surprised by in twenty twenty two? Freeburg will start with you .

on the acquisition of twitter, I think, took everyone by surprise. IT kind of went, I mean, this is such an obvious one. But IT went from a wysong fancy and idea to suddenly, you know, cold hearted reality with, you know, A A huge kind of negotiating saga that took place in court battles and all the drama that ensued. And here's what I think was most surprising about IT. IT wasn't just the acquisition and and the fact that the acquisition closed, but IT was the the incredible verity .

of the .

head cutting, cost cutting, the demands that people return to work, return to the office. And then what was most surprising that followed that is the impact that, that seems to have had on the rest of silicon valley. We're now nearly every V.

C. I speak with every C, E. O. Every board is looking to you.

And behavior for writer, for wrong, for, you know, a moral or not, and saying that's a model for how you can chAllenge your team to achieve the impossible in an impossibly difficult environment, which is what we find ourselves in. And so I think he was A A series of surprising events. He bought witter.

He maybe incredible changes and then everyone seems to be looking to that as a model and it's really resent it's created rippling effect. I'm not think it's good. I'm not think it's bad.

I'm not think it's moral, right, wrong. But the whole thing was really an incredible, surprising, unexpected saga this year. Uh, so I I give you on access to be .

award to math. Do you have a biggest surprise?

I would say it's a jero power in the fed and their staunch hawkish ness. H on inflation, I think everybody wants all of this to be over, and I think we're definitely in the last few innings of IT. But I think what was surprising was how consistent and how hawkish and how barish jon power was every chance he got.

He didn't capital or waiver from the key message, which he was saying from the beginning, which is we have the tools to fix a broken a conney, but we don't have the tools to fix runaway inflation. And so we will raise rates higher then anyone expects and keep them there longer than anybody wants. Because on the back end of IT, we can fix a few broken bones, but if left on checked, this could really do a lot of damage. And I think that that was an enormous surprise, that all the political pressure in the world, all of the financial capital markets pressure, the world, did nothing to change his position.

Sex, what was your biggest business surprise of twenty twenty two?

David is a pretty big surprise that adobe bought figure for twenty billion a that Price tag in this environment. Pretty big surprise. But I gotto say, I think freeburg nailed IT got to say that the business soga the year was elon buying twitter first.

Liberal media was up in arms that he might do IT that they insisted that he must complete the deal. In any event, he he did ultimately buy the company, and now he is affecting his changes. Agree, the big business story this year certainly was a big surprise for me that I got deposition for six .

hours and is a surprise that you're sitting in twitter's headquarters today right now.

Yeah, is a surprise. But just by the way, the rumors and speculation are getting out of hand. I am not a candidate. See you of twitter. So I want to put the caution on that because it's starting .

to get out of hand. Now the job is yours, my friend. congratulations.

I guess worked hard.

Created the live man standing, live man standing.

Now that x has said he is not taking the job, a bunch of lives have just stop taking zank the lib's biggest fear with sexual get to get that job. We just cancelled a bunch of santa uh, prescriptions. A congratulations.

The lib sax is not going to be you're overlord on twitter. For me, it's obvious a the witter acquisition is the bigger surprise by far and away freely. I couldn't sum ized IT Better.

I will say in six weeks what we have seen there is nothing short of extraordinary. Have there have been bombs in the road? Has IT been a little chaotic at times, perhaps, but the features that are coming fast and furious are gonna a be the story going forward.

You've seen twitter for business. Sax had his fingerprints, all that you may fingerprints all over that a you may have seen, uh, hash tags for a stock ticker. I was a briefly involved in that they're gonna so many features coming.

And this is what elan's zone of excEllences product. He is an engineer. He is a product genius. The proof is in the putting, whether the rock chips or the cars, we're going to see a parade features. I predict in another six to eighteen weeks, we will see people talking about all the great features in twitter, not any of the transitional issues, and people will be shocked. My runner up, metal stock collapsing, that was my runner run for the biggest business shock is that they just ably collapsed.

I going to add to what you're saying about new features launching. While we've been sitting here on this post and checking my twitter feet, there's a new feature where there's a view count on all of your tweet and all of everybody else is tweet as well, so you can see how many views a tweet is generating. So this tweet that I posted yesterday has one point five million views is like incredible.

So IT really shows the incredible reach of twitter. And everybody was thinking about going to like some knocked off like master on or something is going to to contend with the fact that IT doesn't have nearly the distribution. So I think this really shows the power of twitter.

And then dave rubin noticed my I tweet this just a second ago, and dave rubin noted that the new york times doesn't have anywhere near the views for its tweet because they bought all their followers, which is interesting. I didn't know that, but I just went over the network profile. And my tweet are routinely getting ten to twenty times more teach more views than theirs. So this is a super interesting indicator of who actually people are paying attention to on twitter is fascinating.

This is fascinating. I'm looking at my own. I just did, how do you give a thirty billion doll fraud? D bell, referring to S, B, F.

And that was just less than an hour ago. No, it's thirty eight. Yeah, an h ago. And I have fifty thousand years already, which is a ten percent of my follow account. So this is an extraordinary, you see, right next, the likes retweet, both tweet, the feature train is coming, and this will change the dialogue. All these haters who are like twitters going to go down, who are rooting against you on, let me tell something. If a guy can land two rockets at a time, and he can literally restart the electronic car movement and he becomes the number one car in any category, he releases a car in, how on earth would you bet against him? To build software.

you have to be idiotic. This is much, I mean, guys like. Ah you're selling a part for a company that you guys .

are working company. Up my profile rocque.

Welcome to this week in twitter.

My god.

twitter now has a filly a bad. As you can see, i've got a little craft enters badge next to my name. So if you you should be to click on IT actually to get to the craft interest profile yeah so you're going be able to a fili ate users with business accounts and IT creates kind of secondary badgers after the blue check.

I think even the corporate journalists are gonna love this because if you're a new or times writer, you're overlook N Y T bagge next, your name, while three journal, whatever you will have, that little bad. So more, more people are going to get blue checks, and then people are going to have secondary or even tushy badges that are based specific to their affiliations OK. So I think let's .

get in all in bad.

You are gonna all in badgers really soon.

awesome. Okay, let's go freeway free. That was our biggest business surprises and we just cancelled your account freeburg. And that took away.

No, go to IT. Anyway.

it's get okay. Best science break through here is an easy one for us to do. Twenty twenty two biggest science break through. What if you got certain of science? We of course have to start with you twenty two bigger .

science center freebody. Yeah i'm going to give IT obviously to the um the demonstration of net energy gain from the national gnc facility. And uh that we talked about last week.

I I wouldn't call IT a break through, by the way. I think we we we use that as in this Normal last week, but i'm still gonna IT in this category. It's more of a milestone, a along a very long path, a very arduous path, a very difficult work that's been taking decades.

So it's a great milestone, but I think that was so important and impactful and powful about IT is that it's really catalyze the change. I see change in the investing in the outlook, but this is becoming more reality. As I mentioned last week, we've seen an increase of nearly forty percent in the number of fusion startups, and the amount of capital that following in is now reaching ten billion a year.

So this is becoming a real investment or an area that's getting real investment. Some people might not think it's very infected table, but that's why I think so it's been an important year for fusion. And I think um you know it's something highly I was .

expected about and I to pick fusion also just point a clarity. Last week some people chamar before you got were saying, hey, you're talking your book on solar when you are in your disagreement with freeburg, that's obvious. You've been very in front that you are investing in soler. You play your .

bed yeah one hundred percent yeah so just just cloud.

Everybody knows he made that, but he talked about IT incessant vely plus .

those ideas that we're saying that are stupid. But um yes, let me let me further clarify what I said last week and why it's important. If nick, can you bring up the capital as a pricing model? Again, the most important thing for me is to make sure that we don't mislocate human capital into endeavors that I think are best left for research institutions funded by the government.

And I think when you look at a capital asset pricing model and try to build one out for fusion as an example, the expected rate of return that you need to get from this is just astronomically high because of the beta of that investment risk and the market risk premium you have to generate. And so you know, for my perspective, I think that there are probably four, five labs in the world that are capable of actually getting us to a positive energy equation. I think freeburg, I really thank you for actually saying that IT wasn't a breakthrough in morva milestone.

I think the real breakthrough is when we have positive, not just jewels, but we actually convert that into electrical energy, right? And we actually talk about power and whats. And I think that most people listening probably don't even understand the difference between jules and watts or don't even care and they want to jump around here there.

So the point is that there is an enormous path we need to take in physics, and I think it's best done in governments. And I don't want to see a bunch of billions of dollars get wasted to get to to get marginal cost of energy to zero right now. I think there is a point in time where private startups can take the the last twenty or thirty percent.

But I think about this like the internet, which is you need to dark at to build v one and then IT could be handed over to private industry. And I think fusion, when we look back, will look very similar. And all the folks that tried to build, you know, versions of the internet that were private, I think found themselves lagging because there's just a level of investment that's required that best survey in government.

So anyways, that's let's clarify that for all the for books of Annies in the an event my science breakthrough the is that there is a thirty year old girl, you know, because of all of this fusion stuff, actually we didn't even get to covered because IT happened in the same week. And I think this is infinitely more impressive and is an actual breakthrough, which is a thirteen year old girl in the united kingdom who had IT here to four uncurable form of luke mia T C L acute lymph o plastic lukie a so typically you starting chemotherapy. If kim a therapy doesn't work, you move to domain transplants.

And IT was uncurable and a lab in the U. K. Basically using crisper, edited the transplant tea cells to go in and wipe out her cancer. And now her cancer is literally undetectable.

Now, if you bring up that capital asset pricing model again, nick, what i'll tell you is the rate of return on a human life, in my opinion, is infinite. And so here is an unbeliever breakthrough that got very little attention because everybody was wrapped around the actual of fusion. IT happened in the same week. So maybe it's understandable I didn't understand IT, but I think this is the single most important thing that happened in science this year, but Frankly, in the last decade because if you can actually now do base editing and eradicate, at least in this case, a blood base cancer and eventually we'll be able to bring that and use that toward solid day tumor cancers, it's a huge breakthrough in in just human longevity and human quality life. And that happened just a few weeks ago.

okay. And of course, for David sacks, his biggest, uh, science breakthrough is I don't care. So moving up. thanks. good.

I tell us. Yeah no, this category reminds me of biting at that moment. Where is like amErica can be defined in a small world. And like, that's kind of how I feel about this category.

AmErica is a nation that can be defined in a single word. I was foot food. Amazing how you figured out a way to be derogatory about biden in the science.

A new low, even for you sacks to go with sex. I like you are I biggest flash in the pan. Twenty, twenty one.

This is what we said. We're the biggest flash in the pan. I said the work, socialist leadership of cities I E.

Chester bodine freeborn said the constitution down. Sax said the word transatlantic, well played. And travers said the universe also very well played.

Everybody take that. Yes, very good. Everybody get your flowers. enjoy. All of those seem like pretty good selections, but this year is what everybody wants to hear about freeburg. Tell us now, who is your twenty twenty two biggest flash in the pan?

The undisputed able who got biggest flash in the pen of twenty twenty two was the all in .

summer at her and went that .

will always be a strong, a significant memory. IT was such a hard thing for a minute, a minute died. So um to be all in summit, I, I, I, my glass, I pour one out.

I told to you to miami and less David sax Carries IT from here. Uh, IT was a flash in the pen. IT was a flash in the pen.

A sex. Who's your flash? Which democrats is a flash in the plane for you?

Well, this is where list trust. As you guys mentioned, he only survived forty four days as pm. I mean, that's only four. Scaramouches.

which was based fired by .

the bond markets after SHE, combined A S tax cut with massive energy subsidies to counter the Price spice caused by the war in ukraine that you actually committed to. This was deemed to untenable by the U. K. Central bank crashed the pound.

And I think there is a serious point here, which is that as much as thatch, cher and reagan, where the two tower ing heroes e figures than one thousand nine hundred eighties, I think zombie thatches m is not going to be electable, viable in the UK, just like zombie ganim is not can be viable united states. I think that the conservative movement has is up living in the past. We have to develop fresh ideas to meet the economic and reign policy chAllenges of today.

To math. Do you have a flash in the pen?

I actually think fusion literally was a flash in the pan. IT was IT later, ten to the negative ten seconds, so that more, less of flash you can have .

without being a flash in the pen.

they.

That was the proprio, the propriety, the owner.

our customer support at your service.

So actually spent the last fifty minutes selling your new features uh yeah on the podcast .

pretty exciting. The like the views are like incredible. But I mean and I saw dave rubin already made an observation that if you look at the new york times, their views are maybe one tenth like my views, just me as a one twitter. And he said that their followers are inflated by spaces, buying a unch of followers accounts.

Yeah, the view things is huge. That's why I I I pushed the view, which was like actually a lot harder feature to implement than you think because the share number of h transactions a per second like H I think this sort of requires system wide uh, on the order of of three three million transactions a second to actually calculate the view. You know how can display that you count if I I for twitter, twitter global. So it's like three million per second, it's lives.

For those of you listening, elon mucus had joined the pod. Elon is the first six week spin, generally speaking, of owning .

twitter well, spite, which but witnessed and been on the roll caster as well.

Yes, the drama in i've taken the drama.

it's quite up. I mean, it's exciting, but I I think a sort of has its highs, lows to say the least. But overall, I seems be going in a good direction. And um you ve got the the expenses reasoning under control. So the company he is not like on the in the fast later bankrupt anymore. And where are we're releasing features, uh, faster than twitters history at the same time as having contained the costs and reduce the cost structure by factor of three, maybe maybe four. So you know the verified is that huge revenue stream as well as A A means of identifying, like knowing that is a real person and not a bottle trial situation. The having the affiliation organization affiliation which actually talked about that was the idea of David that was great um to um you have a organization evaluation so you can know that somebody is a an actual professor stanford or that this particular handle is actually disney not someone simply putting I work at disney in my in the bio so um I think this can be really helpful. Just really just having um detailed and uh nuanced verification a so of all the various things that you say you are, are these things validated by other people and organizations?

Can you tell us how how you do product iteration? Because one of the things that I think some people got jolted by over the last couple of weeks is like a bunch of things got taken away or change. The rules change, the policies change.

And there was very quick action and then people had all this negative feedback about the the quick action without communication. But your extraordinary talent is to iterate product to success. Can you just maybe share with people how you due product iteration in in this context to help and understand how some of these decisions get made and why moving quickly is so important than just you know how you're doing this?

I'm being believed red. And like you want to look at the net output. Um so it's sort of like, you know what's the banding average if like baseball, that the point is, is not that you are like you know hit the ball but it's like, well, how many home runs you get and like what what's you're actual .

you're slugging percentage .

yeah slug percentage yeah like you're going to swing for the fences, strike out a bit more, but we're going to win the fences here twitter and we're going to do IT quickly.

So and I think .

generally like my error and sort of being the chief twit, I will be less over time. Um but you know in the beginning will make obviously sort of a lot more mistakes you know because it's i'm new to I like, hey, I just got here a man.

So I mean, if you look at like the actual amount of improvement that happened, that twitter intensive, like like having costs that are not insane and getting an actually shopping product that on baLance is good, I think that is that that's great. Like actually executing well and getting things done. I think we have fewer, fewer gaps in the future.

How did you get to your intuition on what the efficient frontier of employees .

needed to .

be to make the product Better?

well. Yeah.

I was part of this. Yeah you basically asked the question who here is critical and who here is exceptional?

yes. I mean so I mean is really the what the criteria are trying to apply. And I will connect be perfect um if you're moving fast. And and there's a lot of you know people you talking about here is that anyone who is exceptional about what they do, where the role is critical and they have positive effect um on others um and they are trusted, mean they put the company's interest before their own should .

stay press rate forward.

Yeah I know you know also is up for working you working hard like. That would not that not that not was not twitter prior culture?

yeah. Where are you surprised that that the intersection of that circle and the people that left was basically twenty five percent? Were you surprised that was that deep? Or did you think your intuition was like it's probably somewhere in here?

Well, I think you could just stand back and say without knowing how any in place twitter has at all and say how many people are really needed to run twitter like they say you don't know what they play head cyne bar is at all. How many people are needed to keep the site Operational like let's say, if if excluding product evolution, you basically have to keep the service going. And a you have to have summer of a support function to take down a material that is in violation of the law. How many people what's the number of number of people that's in a hundreds .

problem is not an exactly.

It's it's not it's not like a giant number .

yeah touter says like two thousand .

people right yeah we saw like two thousand people is not nothing and and actually this there's actually on the order of like almost five thousand contractors like like almost yeah almost all of the words called trust and safety work which is like um the the support functions for the site are done by contractors.

You're doing a lot more to take down hate speech than the company .

previously was still yeah absolutely history impressions are down by a third and will get even lower.

Maybe you can speak a little bit to the covered, I think in those early weeks, which was the incentive. The incentive previously was to create as many accounts as possible. Uh, and there were a lot of quick fixes to lowering all these, you know what people might call bot accounts.

In some cases, IT was people opening many millions of accounts. But um we discovered this very early. How easy was IT for you a with the tech team to may be lower the bacon t and all the fake accounts. Maybe it's be a little bit that people have seem to think that kasha is a really hard thing to get rid of bots and IT.

Turns out IT isn't, but we still have a fair number of bots in the system. But the I think the same structure the way twitter set up previously was the relentless focus on what they called em out, which is monetized daily active users, although i'd say the monotonous poch is dust, but at these things that appeared to be monotoned or could be passed off as monotoned with daily active users.

So this I created an incentive to turn a blind eye to a fake account. So if the incentive structure is like, you know, maximize the appearance of monetized daily active users, then you're just as a strong incentive to pretend that a boat is real and that's what happened. So um. We're taking a lot of steps to reduce the the box and trial situation. So many um and I think you're saying that in in the usage like it's it's it's not like relatively rare to have your replies fold with scripter ams.

i'm not saying any anymore freeboard, you had a question.

Yeah I mean, just turn your earlier question. Know when you first started um making changes at twitter after you bought the business, a lot of people kind of took notice at how extraordinary, swift and significant those changes. weah.

And um there's a lot of technology companies that have C E S and investors and boards, and we all talk to a lot of them and they're all now having a conversation like look at what elon did a twitter. How can we do something as aggressive as swift as deep? Do you think much about kind of the the model you're playing for other businesses and other business leaders, particularly in silicon valley and how you're Operating twitter? You ever kind of talk about that because I know you mostly talk about your business and you talk about the business as you're running, but you're having a big influence, I think, in how other people kind of act and behave. There are other business leaders and run other .

technology companies. I ank not really you act of thinking about that much because I just talking about like how do we um I just you know I just get twitter to be a financially healthy place um and and fix the engine of engineering so we can have a rapid evolution of of new products. So and you know I I mean I guess something in some ways an unfortunate position where I, uh, don't have to answer this. It's not public and we are to have a board, really. So I mean, so I can just go you and I can take actions that are a drastic and .

under .

obviously, if if if if I make a bunch of mistakes, then twitter won't succeed and that will be pretty embarrassing and said, but long is like a as long as a vending averages is good um the um winds ah you know so differently ought the mistakes then um know it'll be a great future. And I think i'm very optimistic about .

where things I think a lot of people want to talk about you or understand you on your position on freedom of speech and your principles. I'm i'm curious you've been pretty upfront about IT. How do you think about IT post acquisition? You know what speech should be allowed in the platform? Canna came back.

He just went insane. His account got reverked. what? What what you've learned, I guess, now that you own IT because you must speak, getting a lot of inbound from people ask you how our decisions going to be made. Eta, you've been clear transparency is super important in this. But what are your thoughts on free speech and speech on a platform like this?

Well, I mean the general spi think is that we should you close the law in a given country, so the law is very quite lot by by country um and so I think we should be doing free speech that that's close close to the law and that's that's the general principle.

The I think there there are other things were like, okay we we um like for example, like if if you're an advertiser or you don't want to nest, you don't want your ad, like this is a family movie next to some you know N S F W content even if that content is text you you know it's like like that's probably that we don't you know so so that that you know part of what you know like so there's more of allowance for what what's so I call hate speech on the system, but it's just it's not gonna promoted. It's not like we're not going to be recommending hate speech risk of stating the obvious. And we're not going to monetize hate speech so or or negative speech like this. Not know what advertisers want us to. You know any any thing is going to be a rare product that wants to be next to serious ly negative stuff.

I would say you referred to IT as, hey, freedom of speech, but not reach because this is a very nuon discussion. Like should this stuff be able to hit the trends?

Know like it's only possible with some things that will be regarded as hay speech will hit trends. But I think this can be relatives. Unusual is especially as we are doing a Better job of controlling the botts control situation. And and I I want if size, like there's different scene, the bus and trolls boss, like fully automated accounts, but like a tl phone would be or you've got like, you know hundred people in a warehouse somewhere, each with a hundred phones.

And so they are actually humans, and they gonna pass a capture test and they can you reply to reply and there because actually got humans, but it's actually ten thousand accounts that are just they they're obviously not Operating as as as real people so that you sound like that can cause things to try negative. That's why i'm like a big proportions of having to low cost um verification capability. And um but so like this is definitely a work in progress.

So this um like it's going to be and I I did like all the first things I said uh after the accusing close was like we're going to make lunch mistakes but they will try to recover from them quickly and that's that's what we're done. I think we've generally succeeded in recovering up from them quickly. And been going to do that .

was the polo gram and journalist suspensions mistakes from if you talk about this publicly about .

how that all kind of got resolved at the end. Gram, mike, I called gram to ap.

yeah great yeah um .

so uh you know on the journalist front, the I think the journalist suspensions were not not a mistake in that um for some reason A A bunch journalists thought they were um Better than regulate than everyone else and that if they engage in doxy and and other and break the rules in various ways that that they're not subject to suspension, even though your average your average citizen is and I think that's just messed up.

H the same rule should applies to people call themselves journalists as to you know anyone else on the system. They shouldn't be uh sort of above the rules and for some reason they thought they they should be that that that doesn't make sense. I don't think that's right yeah .

in the rules being transparent and up front, I think that's what everybody is looking for. Two, maybe some just complete clarity and transparency. And you ve said from the beginning when somebody get suspended or this is a shadow banning and the sort of we tips into this really weird stuff that we discovered during, or you discovered where the journal discovered the twitter files, it's it's kind of a bomber that people are being sanctioned or shadow band and they don't know IT if we're are going to have a system.

the rule should be cleared. everybody. Yeah absolutely. So in community, I think probably built roll that out in january. Just by the way, there is like a bit of a you we aren't not going to be rolling out of ten of new features over your Christmas and new year's and stuff. So just like you know, what was was the next sort of feature set will probably roll out mitler january and hopefully in that we can include information about why an account is suspended or uh, has a what is a called with twitter visibility filter A K A set of winning so and and some of these things like are like this. There's lot of things that just happen accidentally where this um in the rules in the system that are meant to detect whether someone's sort of bot or crawl or or like brigden, whether like you know and and an account is of innocently caught up in that.

So um like there were some accounts just suspended uh, yesterday because would temporarily suspended they they got like twelve of suspensions because someone in customers is that someone in trust fit safety thought that they had posted uh a nude photo of hunter biden something h no but they they hadn't actually done that, I don't know, was just a mistake. There were some times that to our specially yesterday for a an error when they didn't sure why why had happened. I was just essentially a mistake a in the with twitter customer support that was corrected.

Let me let me ask you just a slightly broader a question. One of the things we just talked about was the regime change that happened where, you know, we all have to act differently now at the risk free rate is probably going to get to five percent. And i'm just curious across all your businesses. So twitter, yes, but really more importantly, tesla space, are there decisions that you will make differently or not at all or will make that you wouldn't have made otherwise in this new regime? And how often do you think about that kind stuff?

Well I think like it's my like this seem like we're headed into a recession here um in twenty twenty three. The man to that recession is debated but I think it's at least of uh a light modern recession potentially it's on order of uh two thousand nine um so that so I think it's wise to kind of like prepare for the worst, hope for the best, prepare for the worst. Don't get two advantages like like watch out for margin debt.

Like I really advise people do not have uh margin debt in a while to stock market and um you know from a cash standpoint, keep key powder dry. You can get some pretty extreme things happening um in a dn market um like brad Johnson who was A C F O is a is sea of of space acx was at to. Broad calm in two thousand.

And he he said that and that's a good company making good products. And he said the the the prompt to trough, I think in less than twelve months, broad comment down ninety seven percent. So like even if you had a small margin loan in there, you've you got crashed, ed, it's subsequently recovered and I think too much hier levels, but know if there's like mass panic in the stock market, uh, then you've gotta really be careful about margin debt.

so. But I mean, this is just as as we know this, the the economy is cyclical. So yeah you and this book somewhat over you for a recession. And my best guess is that you know we have sort stormy times for a year to a year half and then things start to dorn breaks a roughly in uh q two twenty four, if if I would, to get if that's like my best guess. Recessions don't like like boom don't last forever forever, but need to do recessions.

And it's a fourteen year boom. So as six quarter recession seems like that, that might actually baLanced the last time was what? Four or five quarters. So it's is not easy.

Hey, the twitter files, how much wondering is going to go on? Uh IT seems like every week another drop and these are a pretty controversial um how much longer are the tree files? Is onna go on a in your mind? yeah. And maybe why is this important to you to make sure that people understand the of year?

I think it's important to if if we're going to be trusted in the future to kind of clear the decks for stuff that happened in the past. So um I mean, we told Frank um almost every conspiracy theory that people had about twitter turned out to be true.

So is eric spiry theory about .

twitter that didn't turn out to be true you so far? They're also not to be true and if not, make more true than people thought. Is there part of .

the files that really shocked you more than the rest of them? I got the things that have been disclosed of all of these things are something that really sticks out with you as like, holy, should I had no idea that was happening? Or is the whole thing just the big down fire there? Just looking at one huge thing, you know like sops versus the hundred biden .

thing versus the yeah the number of .

FBI people involved.

that was pretty ff to me was probably the one that was the the rest of IT I could think of like, you know a bunch of over zell's libs got used yeah got IT. You know what I mean? 是 是。 But to have like a secure skift that essentially sense things that, you know, government agents want the populist to basically think IT seems like kind of like a really bad destroy, a novel.

And then IT turns out that existed. And then also, the thing is, IT couldn't have just existed at twitter. So what do you to do about all the other places where this has happened?

youtube? facebook? Yeah.

but I none of the seem that surprising to me. I mean, I don't know, maybe I just believe all the conspiracy theories, but i've been some of these companies and seen how they Operate. So honestly, none of that was a surprise to me. Was that a big shock to you?

You want you favor you. I think you can claim that you want to surprise that these companies were shadow banning, although they denied. But did you really suspect that the FBI was playing a role in flagged content for these companies to take down?

Like that blew me away. Content that's got nothing to do with like terrorism yeah .

they are investable crimes like there's no crime.

right? Yeah they literally flagged SAT tire. Maybe they didn't get the joke, I don't know.

but they don't seem to be a humor driving group but um they don't seem have the best sense of humor. But are they supposed to get warrants? Isn't that how it's supposed to work in a democracy?

They want information, also features their friends.

They are just sitting. That's troubling to me. Put yourself on either side .

of the extremes. We have Michael sHEllenberger here who broke the FBI story in the twitter file. So let's live to him to see. You can, because I think maybe the audiences and caught up on like what was discovered .

so .

you know have to follow me on us. I doesn't seem fair. yes. Hey guys.

oh my goto work.

So 感觉 thank .

you guys。 Oh hey Michael.

how are you? Uh, good. I just a quick question for MC.

First of all, first, who makes that .

switch sense? You mind, man, you want that or .

are you make me fun .

of IT you the sers high praise .

from your brother .

hyrax SE my Michael, isn't the F I supposed to get warns, yes, take actions with folks. And then I guess is that, that the cracks of this, are they doing this at other companies? You think are they just like embedded in youtube? We expect their ebel ded that matter and that they don't get warrants and they are kind of tipping the scales. And is that a good thing for society or bad thing for society? Is a bit of a .

basic question. Yeah I think there's a cut. There's multiple issues relating to F, B, I that I think you have to be unpacked bit. But the first one is that yeah F, B, I was constantly pushing the boundaries of what is legally and ethically acceptable in terms of requesting information. Now I think what you saw over the last uh, three weeks was A A shift.

And I think our own understanding and that we did see more push back from twitter executives against FBI and some alarm bells being, uh, wrong in terms of the request ever been made from the intellect community. Uh, but these guys were really persistent. If they kept asking for more, they kept you more, more CoOperation.

It's very troubling. IT does look like congress is going to look into this. Are the two heads of the committees that are tasked with this have said that they're going to look into next year.

I think the other thing that, that we saw that I think this is more troubling was this persistent effort to basically communicate to twitter executives, but also to news media um national security correspondence that there was this heavy foreign filtration going on, this this russian and disinformation and IT appeared to me looking at all the evidence, both that we saw often within twitter and from outside of IT, that this was pretty organized effort to convince uh, key executives at twitter and facebook but also these key reporters that that they should expect a hacked and league e Operation sometimes right before the elections. Happy to do a hunter biden. I find, I find that very suspicious.

Can I make an observation? I think that maybe what we're finding out is that the mainstream media try to go back to its hundred and eighty called war playbook and turn russian to a boogyman. But as we're seeing in the ukraine war, you know, they're not nearly the formidable foe that we thought they were.

And so IT could probably be the case that in twenty sixteen they were as eneb ed technically as as they are military right now. And so we may have just built up this monster that uh is kind of more like you know A A much smaller thing to be worried about. And we all run with IT because we had no evidence but the ukraine russia war is evidence that know this highly sophisticated war machine and propaganda machine is not a that good of their job.

right? Yeah I mean, I think that what's there's a lot of interest that we were being served by hyping the so called russian misinformation thread. I mean, one of them was just to simply explain the trump phenomenon as a consequence of foreign interference. A certainly the people that iran holy clans campaign had an interesting doing that. But then you saw IT become a sort of way, I think, to condition people for the release of the bite in laptop.

And again, we can't I can't prove that, but IT is striking that the year rah this means twitter executive, who I think was the object of information campaign, um testified under that he was being bomb bar ded with these messages although a twenty twenty that they should expect some sort of a hacked and leak Operation so win the new york post finally did report on that computer uh in twenty fourteen IT was briefly censored by twitter but I think more importantly, IT was discredited in the minds of many voters, including myself. I really didn't think that that laptop was what they said I was and IT turned out that I was. So I do think it's there's a real troubling pattern of behavior by both the FBI uh, agents but also by the former FBI executives, including the deputy chief of staff and the chief council from FBI that that were at twitter as executives at the time.

And in fairness, Michael, this has been brought up many times, but I just would like your tag on IT because you're a lifting .

democrat correct til until last year.

great. So I would you know, uh, just less anybody think that you are like some maga supporter here.

Just my sweater.

This was all in the backdrop of trump asking for the russians, you know, during that debate to hackler y for him interfering with zelenski and trying to get him to give dirt on biden and the fact that hand band was obviously dirty uh so to expect a hack there was massive precedent for IT. So that set the stage for this correct for sure.

And there is definitely ah that going on and and maybe that's all there was to IT. IT is just striking, of course, because and I didn't even mentioned in my this is by the way, this is twitter thread part seven that I did on this issue, I didn't even get in to the fact that within a few days the many of former senior heads of intelligence organza others came out and said that he was the result of a russian disinformation campaign.

So yeah, sure. I mean, I I guess we could find some other explanation for IT, whether is innocent or coordinated, but is IT is striking also. I think the other thing that we found was the contrast between the the threat inflation and what what twitter was finding themselves.

I mean, there was, you know repeatedly your roth respond FBI yeah, we looked into these accounts you mentioned and they were all very low follower accounts with very little activity. So they just weren't finding very much foreign influence on the twitter platform. And so I just think IT was grossly inflated either for kind of good reasons or bad reasons. I would say, yeah yeah and .

it's uh there there's no perfect way to police this stuff, obviously and um okay well listen, we appreciate your reporting yeah for doing IT um and if you haven't read my god book and Francisco, you did some great reporting there as well and continue success in your investigative .

journalism great Michael IT icicle.

sorry. H lost.

sorry. Oh OK.

hey, you did an interview uh, on that. I think I thought on youtube or something where you interviewed someone who was homeless in sanford cisco, and they were a addicted to drugs and they kind of said some narrative about how they were uh, in this condition because and Frances o basically pays them to be homeless and pays them to do drugs on the street. Did that ever get publish and did that come out because IT was such a compelling couple minutes that you got on tape there IT really for me, sent home a message of how far kind of a progressive um policies can take a society and it's such a beacon for where things might go with other people start to think about adopting similar policies around the world. Which is why I thought I was such important reporting what whatever happens with that and work and folks see that because I was such a moving interview for me yeah.

if you just google Michael shell burger or youtube homeless, you will to find all my videos. There's a lot of them that we did with people on the street, all of them, of course, people asking and wanting to do them. But you, I mean what we I also read about that in my book, which is basically a cisco pays cash welfare mm between six to seven hundred dollars plus you can get turn around in food stamps.

And a lot of people, sadly, use that to maintain their addiction. And this gentleman, James, with the tattoos on his face, was very honest about how he was playing the system. In fact, he was himself. We found this increasingly kind of horrified by the incident of the seven sysco's is creating four people to live on the streets and and live on the streets and in their addiction. So yeah.

you can find that I do. So many people say incentive drive behavior, and unfortunately, these policies all came from a good place, from a kind heart and the idea that we could help people in need. And unfortunately, the way that the incentives get structure, they can actually cause more harm than good.

It's such an important lesson. I just wanted to say that because I think you're reporting on this a really hit that home. Ah so so thanks for doing that. I think it's really important because we have we have to do the right thing for people, but we also have to be careful that the policies are done in the right way.

So so well said for work because when you're micon, I I just think you're very courageous for doing IT because it's very easy for somebody you say, oh, well, you are being called less. The truth is incentives manner and we saw we've see this over and over. Gant, if you pay for something, you get more of IT and really separate cisco's bearing the burden.

I think this is what you're book. And in a lot of the video you have made, at least the message I got, san Francisco has the lowest Price of drugs, the lowest enforcement and the most incentives. Therefore, they suffer because every person who is, you know, addicted comes here because they speak to each other. And ninety percent of the people who are in separate to score here because we have created incentive structure. Is that directly corrections?

We rap here? Yeah, hundred percent correct. Including just the non enforcement of laws against sleeping on the sidewalk.

Doing drugs in public now require ing ultimately three times more people die. Living outside is an unsheltered homes person, rather than live than being in a shelter. And for me, that's all you need to know to. We cannot allow our brothers and sisters to sleep on. The street, no matter how desperate they sound about wanting to avoid going inside, is three times deadlier to .

be on the street then inside. So the compassionate thing is to force people into housing. People say, but, you know, because we have this perception that people have freedom and they should have the right to do this, but a person who is taking infant to all in your research is not thinking correctly. And if was any family member of hours, we would not want them to make that decision for themselves. We'd want somebody else to make that decision for them, correct?

ABS. I would want that from if I was on the street so desperate that I was smoking final and breaking multiple laws every day. Of course, I would want to be hospitalized, you know, and use, you know, people overcome their addiction.

That's the good news. We always leave out of IT, but IT is possible. People do overcome their addiction all the time, but they often need some, some an intervention from family and friends. And if that's too late for that, then you need the innoventions .

from the, from the city, right? I think as we get back to the all in ork, we've now gone twenty four hours a day. We all in news network has launched.

We'll just have a road. We should sit at various officers throughout condi, letting uh executives and .

city imagine we did like a twelve, our marathon show for charity, where just people showed up and we did. Did they call those on T.

V, by a plane?

Yes, yeah, no, no. Just a take a telephone. Jl has to stop. Commercial will do a telephony. Sax, thank you for setting up those amazing .

drop is well done sex thanks, sex. So your jacket.

that's a great check.

That custom that is Christ as jack .

who's IT by c it's .

valentino.

Well, that's that's nice also. Okay, nice. But okay, let's keep going here.

We're going to go to lightning round biggest flash in the pan. We were was our last. I went with script. Pretty easy to say that i'm not you guys .

think of the very well is very .

talk to and anything .

interesting or surprising for you and me.

he said. The biggest thing that people want to make sure to avoid this margin debt, I know what I mean. He's working hard .

and he just .

such a product of focus guy he just gets his he's like so deeply into .

IT is like yeah ultimately but I think if anything so I mean, anything you know products are made by teams. So what I think is distinct tly difference is giving my personal opinion.

I don't know for microsoft teams.

no, no, no, teams make products. And so what I just want to say here is, you know like sign to stuck. No, that i'm not no, don't trigger the bundle, but I say you don't like this is a takeover as opposed to building a company from scratch. He's had to assemble team and then work at this incredible product pace. And I think those two things are starting to click week.

Yeah.

sixteen is going to look very different than week the first six.

Yeah, the products are really looking awesome. And IT was nice time to give me that shot out on the the filly a badges, but i'll just give a shot out.

I didn't hear IT.

What was that a well, he gave me, he gave me some credit for the fairly badgers, but I wanted to give .

credit to the pms .

who approached .

me .

about that idea. Again, I, the actual pms, evan Jones a patric trigger r who they approached me about the idea they had. And then I helped, you know, give IT some momentum.

Here's the truth.

When David, I spent the first couple of weeks there now that a little more public be, but on the program, what we found over over again was that there were great features that were ready to be released that were being held back by management, and they were brilliant people with all the ideas that you d think should have been released, and they just weren't allowed to release a lot of these products. why? Who knows? But now that is in charge, I think you'll see the product cycle is going to go much quicker. The most important thing I saw.

which is such an important lesson for anyone running a business in silicon valley, is that th Epace o f d ecision m aking m atters f ar m ore t han t he a ccuracy o f d ecision m aking. It's always been like one of my three .

big models are like .

my number one, like my three things, always like great biased action and a narrative. But like biased action, the rate at which you can make decisions is a far greater predict of success than the accuracy of the decisions you do make. And so you have to be willing to embrace failure. You have to be willing to make decisions that could result in something not being done correctly or making a mistake and even getting embarrassed on the internet, you know, by making mistakes and having to call people like polygram and apologize for them.

And that was a big moment.

But the as a .

as a business scales, as professional managers are brought in their incentives to not make mistakes, their incentive is to do things that are predictably going to work and are predictably not going to fail. And therefore, they avoid taking the risks and they reduce the rate of action and the rate of decision making. And that's why so many businesses ultimately don't scale, pass some sort of inflection point.

Or when founders are willing to push that on the loop, step out, everything starts to fall apart. And it's so critically important, I think, to look at bad as being I think he launch to finding trade and characters tic exists regardless of the scale of the organization and enterprise. He's still willing to act with that level of biased action that you typically seen a small startup.

okay.

and put his .

reputation on the at risk. By meeting yesterday, he said that if we're not rolling back ten percent of the time, we haven't pushed hard enough.

right? wonderful. you.

So I think if you're never rolling anything back because you never make mistake, maybe you're just not .

right moving .

back towards action, you too afraid of making mistake.

Here's what so interesting about the views feature is that a bunch of websites I think I started because instagram, that a bunch of apps depreciated, you know, likes because they felt that I was too be IT was part of this negative cycle and so that they took all the stuff away. And basically views is going sort of back in that direction and giving more granularity in terms of outside in social engagement on the post, which is, I think interesting to see it's happening in a moment where all these other sites and apps are actually going in the opposite direction.

Well, it's it's like a standard feature on youtube and it's very powerful for youtube s network effects because that shows you how many views you get. So IT discourages peel from using other sites because, you know you get the most distribution on youtube. So it's weird that other social work works, don't want to follow suit. I mean.

in one hour the head, but they depreciated. That's what so interesting.

But I guess, you know my point is we've only have this feature for an hour and I didn't realize how much distribution my tweet were getting. And IT definitely undermines my incentive to want to go use another platform when I see the distribution i'm getting on twitter. Well.

if if you're getting ten times for distribution in the new york, you know what's going to happen. People stop listening and reading this.

Well, I mean, it's sort of like this podcast itself like, I mean, we people ask us to go.

Point is we have to rely on social proof and animates about the actual scale in the breath, in the reach because it's impossible for us to get one holistic view that shows across all of these different modalities, whether it's spotify or apple podcast or youtube, how many people listen or watch. And you know, we add at all up and you know, we think it's in this, you know, sort of three to five million range of people. But if you just had a numerical onal number that was irrefutable, you just run over everybody.

This turns IT into a mattocks acies could be terrifying to some blue checkmark when they see that the people who they report on get ten times as many views as they do, of course, is why people journal show and another .

look at shown and I go to shot profile. And for the number of followers he has helped themal engaged his audiences. It's all bots controls.

It's all looked at mitt romney just put out a video, whatever, in the first, like half hour, he had one .

hundred .

thousand views. Like every politician .

we start seeing, this is going to go. I want more, actually has more influence than shown handy. Let's, okay.

let's move on. We ve got to get through this quickly at our longest epsom ever. Here we go.

We are gonna do. Next up is very this is a very important category. Best twenty twenty two. In twenty twenty one I went with Frank slut men and iron mosque.

Uh chmagh went with saudia and nadella sex men would brian armstrong and freeburg went with jack dorsey. Now we go on to twenty twenty two sax, who everybody wants to know sex is best. C, E, off to twenty twenty two guy sex.

Every founder took my advice to get leader's so down their burn, create runway, whether the storm.

So you're giving a generic answer.

not a person. Yeah exactly. I mean, look, I think actually a lot of the names, a lot of the names well, here's the problem is that yeah, can I finish the names that you mention from last year with the top canas for this year?

I mean, I think such a della had a good dear. Obviously, what elon's doing, we just talked about amazing, bright armstrong. I think stock isn't not great, but he's strong.

You, but I don't want to repeat the same names. I think that you know every CEO who responded the regime change by cutting cost, getting leaner, sitting run away, I think IT deserves to be on this list. And unfortunately, a lot of them are just resisting and there does not yet taking the medicine or they're been taking the medicine in little dribs .

and drives instead of just like swing at hole getting move on. Yeah just drink .

the hole two tablespoons dicon up call. I mean, this is one of the worst days in the market the whole year. So things really worse before they are .

going Better to math. Who is your best year there?

Well, the numerical answers vicki hob, who's the CEO accidental patrol um stocks up like a hundred and forty percent this year. It's technically the best performing stock of the year, exceed three billion dollar company. But that's just a new miracle answer who I I actually wanted double down on David answer xx answer because I agree with that. I have been guiding uh, our portfolio company CEO to be a casual break even now or. Extend runway to kill one twenty, twenty five and there are twenty five.

Yes, because I I mean, I think you trying for what and I are kind of roughly in the same place we have been for a while, which is like mid twenty four when the recession ends, and you need to give yourself two to three quarters of buffers so that you can go and rays around, which takes a quarter to two quarters. And once you started to get kind of get escape lossy out of a recession, having money through n of q one twenty twenty five, I think is is a minimum requirement. And you know, all the companies that I think was the most precariously position there was fight of them that got their act together and really did IT.

But these are all C E S. Of companies that you know I mean, if you have said them, you would know some of them. But I I do agree with David.

I think the CEO that bit the bullet so maybe publicly what I would says, you know the CEO of corner deserves a huge you know medal for having the courage to do IT before anybody else did to see a chickadees. M, just take a huge right down. These CEO are making sure their companies .

survive freeburg. Best CEO twenty twenty two.

My vote for best CEO, uh, is a warn buffet. And I think IT is just simple arithmetic. Uh, he has four years and now for decades proven himself uh, to be just not just an exceptional investor, stock picker, whatever the kind of typical quit is about what he does for a living.

But I think what's so extraordinary that buffet is that regardless of the market conditions, um he can kind of remain steadfast in his uh intent and in his mission and he doesn't kind of waver h and you know he doesn't take an active role in ranting and complaining about markets and politics. And I think that that's what makes him such an extraordinary leader. He stays within his zone of competence.

He doesn't do things that he doesn't know about. He doesn't let the mro drive him and caught him to be kind of um you know uh affected by IT. And he says this is what I know how to do, this is what I can do.

And that is all that he does do. And he does is so exceptionally well. And to cha mos point, he is the largest shareholder of oxide al petroleum, along with many other a incredible businesses. And I think he's proven in a market like we just had this year why he is kind of the most extraordinary C E O or one of the most extraordinary C E O but one of the the best kind uh capital .

allocators uh uh of all time are going to go in a similar fashion uh as chmagh and sex and go with the money losing ceos who have dedicated themselves to free cash flow and to getting to profitability from the last cycle. Airbnb and uber, where the money losers and now air bean bees, my number one, they become a money printer. They are now making bank and they're still growing very, uh, quickly.

And then uber, I put in my second, they need to do another rift. They need to cut some expenses. But they too are hitting the free cash flow and the network effects.

So i'm giving a to a chesty and then da one and two. Okay, let's keep moving. Best investor ah for me, i'm going with the investors like a general category for demanding governance and doing diligence again or who never stopped.

Let me say that that way there is a generation of investors are who raised their funds in the last five years and didn't do gilian ence, didn't demand board seeds in demand boards. Those, uh, idiots are now paying the Price and they created a lot of this mess of entitlement and a lack of governance. I want to give a shout out to the bill girl ies of the world who fought for governance and fought for diligence in the face of being told, okay, boomer, you don't get IT. Who do you have, uh, best investors to mah poli hop tier?

I will pick the water called the pot shops. So these are folks that have strategies where they have hundreds of investing pods underneath f and umbrella, and they have this very sophisticated risk infrastructure. So this is what can riff in ones and settle.

This is what easy england der owns in millennium ravin. Howard is another one. D, E, show another one.

So they have all kinds of strategies, but Better essentially run by computers that allocate risk. You know, scale you up, scale you back, turn you on, turn you on. Fire you overnight.

And those strategies says a whole ran over the market this year. They were the best performers. They are giving back billions of dollars. They've generated double digit positive returns. They're raising their fees.

In some cases, some of these folks are moving their annual fee up to four percent year, their Carry up to forty percent year. Incredibly, incredibly well run performance businesses. They were by and away the best investors. Uh, this year.

K, we're going to go lightning around from here. A sax.

Do you have a best investor? Yeah, I said stand drug Miller, he does your call. Last year, he predicted that inflation would be lasting. This string went transistor was the word of the day. This year he predicted the barry market rally we had in joy and August.

And I remember back at the coaches, someone in may there around that time, he was interviewed and he basic was saying that as soon as there was a bear market rally over the summer, that he would then put a short position on. I don't know, he actually did that, but he said he is going to do that. And then he turns out that the summer rally that we had was a dead cut bounce.

So he was right about that. And now he is predicting a hard landing in twenty twenty three with a deeper recession that many expect. So sadly, I suspect you maybe right yet again.

Freebody best investor three twenty. Yeah.

I had draken Miller. I I indicated that he's been doing interviews is pretty every quarter for the last two years, and he's been pounding the table telling everyone what's gonna en and IT all happened. And he even told people the trades amid one. He said he was short, longer ted treasurer and he was long commodities. And if you had put those two trades on at that time and held them to today, you would have made a fortune. Uh and so I think he's extraordinary in his um ability to get to see macro in a way that others don't but also to take extremely brave action with his portfolio knowns for how big the bets are that he makes and how quickly he can change his mind when he's wrong and make another big debt and still get himself out of the whole he he's incredible. So I definitely give IT .

to stand my brother. This year twenty twenty one, we did our best turnaround. I pick disney to my ford freeze.

We what about the worst investor of with anybody else who has long tag based? If nick, if you can just bring please back up this capital as a pricing model. Any of us that didn't understand this got run over this year.

And just to put some very specific numbers here, there was a decent little tweet thread ah that everyone was a part of where he they actually calculated what expected rate of return of tesla was and he turned out to be almost fourteen percent year. And so you know, when you start to compound fourteen percent over three, four, five years, these numbers get very big very quickly. And the reason why is that he has a huge beta and we're in a world now where the risk rate is quite high.

So all of us benefit from this equation essentially being upside down for the last fifteen years. And all of us who were over allocated into things that benefit from those dynamics, Frankly, got run over this year. So we were as a class, the worst investors of twenty twenty two.

Okay, here we go. Let's do our best turn around. I am going to go with, uh, me.

For me, it's meta. They were a losing money hand over fist. They refuse to do a rift. And then finally, beast brager ser said, uh, let's get fit he did a memo and finally, finally sucker g made some cuts.

Reportedly rumors he's making A A fifteen, ten, fifteen percent cut I heard in the back channels right now based on performance. So is not calling IT a rifle to just going to cut the bottom ten or fifteen percent again. So I think sucks gna turn IT around. Anybody have a best turnaround?

So you're saying exact mission accomplished.

You don't turn the best things turn around this year. I'm going with metal.

So your answer is meta was turned around by dock this year.

Yes, we ve got down to eighty five dollars. And now the one one fifteen, yes, he turned IT around at the end of the year. IT was like a hallmark at the end of year. He turned IT around. And this is going to continue to, yes, that is my position.

good. I thought I K O K.

So talking about .

very partial .

turn rounds here, I would say, I would say that you .

can measure the turn around as of october twenty four now. Yes.

exactly. So h sysco's is still overall a mess, but there were a few positive events that happened over the past year. And looking back, we should call these out.

So first of all, back at this chart to the begin of the year, we were recalled three members of the schoolboy, most particularly alliston Collins member, her. This was done by something like a seventy thirty margin and eighty twenty on on Collins. This was a school board that I drag his feet on school reopening.

They destroy the merit based low high school. They wasted hours of meetings on a silly plan. Remove the names of names like Abraham, linking from the, from the schools in any of that.

They were removed. Then JK, you referred to this. We got chasa bo dee recalled by a sixty forty margin, asking for the schoo D.

A. This was the D. A. Who whose agenda was dearmer ation. He tried to release as many repeat defenders as possible. The voter systems go had enough.

And then most recently, the farther less supervisor gorn mar just got rejected by his own community this november. And the new tough a brook Jenkins got reelected in her own right after being appointed by london breed. So there's so a long way to go in sometimes ces go, but there are default. Some Green shoes could start that. The elector here has had enough and is looking for the this called the century democrats as opposed to the radical.

Okay, we're in the lighting round here. We're an hour, three of the all in podcast, a marathon. This telephone cheap got a best turnaround for twenty twenty two. Hard, hard, hard one to give. So any Green shoots for twenty, twenty two years actually say.

no. I mean, the everything just got disaster.

Great, great berg.

anything that you there may be no turn around the world until twenty twenty five.

And OK here split on this freeway. You anything.

please, that made so ninety four thousand .

one hundred seventeen. It's of my best j trades. Did you .

say this is.

i'm telling your disney what you talked about before. You and facebook are three of and you know, where are my big ones let's say, worse humanity being here.

I think. Look, given that this is what to be the year twenty.

twenty two, I mean, you've got to say the S.

P, F is a one or this.

hand down OK. congratulations. S, P, F. You are consensus .

worse human being for this. I mean.

not this only for the year.

right?

Yeah, we we all hate you equally. OK, who's who's? Number two? What do you hate them? What do I hate them? Because all those people lost their money.

And you know, there's some, it's causing chaos. I feel terrible for all these people who lost money. That's why I had him. Uh, it's discussing.

did you see even have a second? More important, the two guys copped to, please Caroline ellison and, uh.

get they slip.

And but IT turns out that they actually did engineer a back door into F, T, X. And alameda has been doing this for years. Oh my god.

Oh my god.

Me over me there to talk about .

that interesting defense strategy we were um discussing in the chat. Yeah but apparently I think this is actually a fascine defense. Tragic, I think this their own shot, whatever best is had this theory that he was prescribed two prescription drugs, one was at all. What was the other one called?

This was not .

the patch is a drug I wasn't familiar with. I guess it's a patch. But when you combine these two things, apparently IT basically shut down or kills the part of your brain that deals with in bii.

It's coin. Yeah what if his defense strategy was, yeah, like, only in the same person would do this. And I was acting insane because I describe these drugs that had these drug conflicts. And I, like, killed part of my brain. I an and you think .

about every criminal on wall street said, cocaine is my defense.

But this, you could say he was, maybe he was legally proscribed. You can show the prescription, by the way, i'm not saying this should get him off. I'm just we're basically workshopping what is only shot of his defensive .

would be right? Well, and think about IT sex. He acted manic after F, F, T, X collapsed. So that mania of doing twenty twitter spaces would be.

there's something so insane about what he did, right you, that all, it's almost like like a prescribed in sAnitary defense, like I was provided a drunk combination that made me insane.

Anybody have a most loathsome company as we?

The only way that you could come up with that, like you, you'd have to have two parents that we're like, law professors .

or right, most awesome company after .

water defence, you.

my parents, bo, who no.

no, he will claim in santa jackal, he'll say, of course yeah and they'll have A I mean, do you think that his parents aren't gna help his defense?

You know, at this point, this kids gotto go away for life.

That does. I think it's .

got to be a life. I think it's got to be thirty plus. I I mean, it's just going to be be billions of dollars. What what kind of justice system do .

we have when people go away for twenty thirty years per billions with you sense .

a decade per billion at least? Yeah I mean, just you got a some proportional sex. You got a don't you think the justice needs to look at other people who are in jail for selling cocaine, for selling marijuana for A A convenient store, though put somebody away for robbing a convenient store for a decade or two, where are they going to put him in, jeff, just because somebody came in with a gun and Robert, convenience store, they get twenty years. These kids going to get off screen.

Look, I think where you getting the overunder is here.

You think it's i'll set IT that i'll set IT at thirty five years.

thirty I.

I multiple hundreds .

of years agree, and you'll be gone for life.

I think it's going to be life. But I said a good line. Okay, most of some company is F, T, X. Anybody want to go for second?

Now all had one.

I'm at this year i'm going to give my last year I gave IT to tyin foods, one of the largest slaughter of animals on earth. This year i'm going to give them to a company called inot I N O T I V. This is the company that had was butted by the feds for their animal abuse in their dog breeding facility, uh, where four thousand eagles were rescued, one of which I adopted.

And this is a publicly traded companies stocks down ninety percent, which i'm thrill to see. Terrible business af, awful kind of, you know in humane behavior. And so I I I want to kind of give them a special shut up this year.

Look at you and you're getting the virtual signal points of rescuing the dog to increase your two factor among species. Well done.

Factor X Q factor .

X Q factor.

yeah.

Anybody else have a lower som? Yes, i'd like to pick this company, zebra do, which, uh, destroyed the environment for a bunch of endangered species that I would others SE have used for various for pelts, for my sweaters in such.

Yes, and I would like to go with bb bb blow, which was torturing puppies, eighteen of which I rescued, and I am now have them in the j hell puppy rescue. I am the most sensitive and caring person. Uh, also I would like to add sea world.

I am in the process of raising money to build bigger uh, pools to eventually release all the orcas in captivity. That is my new focus for next year. Okay, moving on.

How god do we want to do best? me? Do we want to do best new tech?

Or do you best new tech? I don't have the best .

thing i'm going with fusion for best new tech i'm going with.

i'm going to go with ChatGPT. I think what was so impressive about ChatGPT um and and the experience that everyone's had using IT is that IT really for the first time, I think illusion ated where uh these kind of machine learning tools can take us and what the kind of new product experience can be, what generate A I can yield of things beyond, I think to of what a lot of people were imagining before. So IT was really so revealing. And as you guys know, there's an absolute figure title wave of people trying to start companies that are leveraging tools in generate A I H to kind of reinvent everything from workplace tools, enter Price software all the way through the media, games and entertainment. So that's why I think ChatGPT was the most impressive new technology.

twenty lighting .

around tech alf three, which basically has almost near perfect accurate protein in I can .

improve on the ChatGPT. So yeah the best .

trend best trend in business and in the world mine is uh, startups getting back and investor is getting back to reality. And what I call the age of austerity, the age of focus after the age of exercise, that's the best trend in our world. The age of austerity, which your best trend for twenty twenty .

two marginal cost of energy generation in storage is now in the low single digit panny per killed about hour which basically means that ah not only will energy be free in abundant, but IT will, I think over the next decade or two, create a massive peace dividend. IT will rewrite our foreign policy. IT will rewrite national security. That is the reason why people should care about energy transition, not necessarily climate change, although that's important. It's a distant second to keeping men and women at a war and keeping our border ers safe.

Well said, anybody else have a best try catch last year?

And I said the critter economy, uh, which I think refer to all these kind of creators creating new products and and businesses beyond their content this year. I I think that the trend that was again enabled and demonstrated through ChatGPT as the naratu economy, I think this is going to be a really important trend going forward. Will talk about IT in the prediction episode.

But I think the idea that people are can and are starting to experience this in using ChatGPT and doll and other kind of generate A I tools is how much you can kind of narrow the product you wants to see created and have a created for you on the fly. And I think that that's a really kind of powerful mind shift for people in frame shift for people. And I think IT really starts to change a lot of the way that people behave and obtain themselves. Business is, Operate and so on. So I I called the area, the economy, and I think it's really kind of starting to emerge.

okay. Do you have a trend? sex?

yeah. I would say best trend is the growing realization that the corporate media is fAiling, does not tell the truth, that has an agenda. More, more people opting out of IT and going with independent media.

I think you know what elon mentioned, where we're going to start holding these corporate journalists the same standard on twitter as regular citizens. They are outraged by that. But that's a huge step in the right direction.

The fact the matter is, is that the press or the media is the prison through its reality, is reflected. And if it's not giving us an accurate representation of the world, we can begin to solve our problems because we don't have accurate information. And I think more, more people are waking up from the matrix and realizing they were living in this media controlled simulation. And again, I don't think we were going to make progress until the this power that the media seems to have over our reality gets gets broken.

So let's go for worst trend. My worst trend is the fed trying to play catch up. The fed trying to play catching up.

Sorry, buddy. The fed trying to play catch up is the worst friend for me overseeing into the crash. Would he got cheap for the worst trend, twenty twenty trend.

was the continued profitted spending by the federal government. We have record deficits, record debt. And this year were ending the year by adding another one point six five trillion dollars are spending that nobody can seemingly account for. IT is truly the Christmas tree of Christmas trees, uh, in terms of bill. So we have not gotten religion yet around being measured in how we spend money.

good.

One worst trend sucks. Last year, my worst trend was authority ism growing all over the world. And I think that's pretty some prediction.

This is a worst trend, is the government colluding with big tech to engage in censorship. This is how they are gonna do the authority ism. We talked about IT with shell burger in e law, this whole series revelations.

Notice the twitter files. We can see this. Collusion, this casual ship between the sensors at twitter and big tech and the bureaucrats at the FBI and D H.

S. And pentagon. If this is a really disturbing to stop an relationship, as we talked about IT earlier.

And you know, I feel like we spend all this time talking about the authority, an ism in russia, in china. We should be obsessed with combatting that and going to war with that. We don't spend ough time talking about this growing authority ism at home. The media doesn't seem to want to report out the twitter files at all. Let's focus on stopping authority ism here.

Well, said friedberg. What's your worst trend?

I trend for twenty twenty two is what I would call interest rate mania. And I think that this is the menu that we've been caught up in on this show, that other people on our thread, people in the business community, the investing community, where everyone's obsession, we did the feed back soon enough late and that interest rates ultimately drive successful failure with building businesses and making good investment.

And the is when when interest rates go the wrong way, good investments ah you know can kind of strengthen their way, can can can make their way through those environments. Bad investments cannot. Good businesses can make their way through bad investments cannot.

And so I think armenia around the fact that interest rates and the fed ultimately drove bad outcomes in businesses and investment is a flawed um kind of a search. And we all want to kind of get back to the drunken days where you know a low interest rate environment enables us all to be successful and wealthy. And I think that that kind of change. So I think it's time for us to get away from the interest rate media and focus more on solid investing and solid business business.

Okay, here we go. Lightning ground. We ve got two to go. Favorite media of twenty twenty two for me. That was top gun.

How to the drag in White lotus two? But i'm going to pick my favorite, something you may out of heard of the film tar, I highly recommended, but I did like those other three tremendously. What you got sexy or .

favorite media of like you did, i'll ve ever shut up to my movie, dolly land, which should be coming on next summer if you're onna, include podcast episode. I would give a shot out to the unheard episode where pretty sales interviews john near shamir, the fever right relations, he explains the origins of the ukrainy war and has some really pessimistic y predictions about what might happen next. I suggest everyone to watch IT if they won't understand this conflict and where IT may .

be going next year to mother, have any favorite media for .

twenty twenty two you want to show? I thought yellows don't kick das absolutely incredible. There's uh I think it's on hou um but there's a show with deep cruel a little short series called the patient about A A serial killer that kidnap his psychologist and locks them in his basement to try to help him prevent him killing more people and I thought I was really, really well done.

Never have I ever the latest season, another just brilliant offering from medicine. She's unbelievable. Those those are probably the top ones.

What do you got? Freeburg any media?

Yeah, I read a book this year that I really liked. It's called the vital question by a guy name, nick ying. Someone recommended IT to me. It's he's a biochemist, and he kind of talk a little bit about the origin of life on earth. IT really tied into this idea that there are certain call IT principles of physics and statistics that make life predictive and predictable.

But I think the way that he kind of walks through, how a lot of things emerge, uh, uh, uh, in life, and how life ultimately kind of developed on this planet are are really well shown. So yeah, I I give his book a shout. I was, I was a really good that book.

The vital question is incredible. The other one that he wrote, which is called life, for sending those two books, you must, if you don't want to be a lot. In my opinion.

I also for those .

people who don't understand the difference between power and energy, you'll learn what that very good.

I have two book recommendations. Putting the rabbit in the hat is brian cox. You may knew him, secession.

He has a great book, and he reads the audio book very enjoyable. And half through quinton titanos cinema speculation and enjoying a very much sacks, you will enjoy IT tremendously. okay. And now we do the rudy julio I award for self emulation. This is for the person who poured lighter, flew IT and gasoline over themselves and let themselves on fire for no apparent reason. I go with Kevin li, who's secure a fifty million dollar g from F, T, X, and then decided to try to defend IT, uh, eighteen ways to sunday burning whatever reputation he had. Who do you have in your rooty drilling on the world?

This will be controversial for you guys. I'm going must I don't think that you on put himself in the position that he did uh with bad intentions or without paying attention. I think he's taken on uh a role uh in buying and running twitter that is you know principled and um you know in his mind and many other people's minds are really important role that someone needs to be.

Unfortunately, I think his reputation has gotten really hurt because of that role. He's not making a lot of friends and he's not he's causing a lot of reputational damage. He obviously had a lot of good and important things he was working on prior to taking on the additional burden of twitter. And while many people appreciate his doing IT, I think that is causing him a lot of reputational damage. And so yeah I I don't mean that kind of be offensive and saying that, but I think he's he's got to certainly .

been hard thing to do.

It's certainly hard to do sex. But you're saying self analytic .

freeport because he took IT on himself. He could took IT on himself. It's I think he's taken on the burden of doing this. And I think it's called a .

lot of report is the interpretation of the word what you got sexe.

Well, I mean, if interpret the award, I think the way I was originally intended, I think I got to give A A hertie lawkins this year, unfortunately. And I I wish the republicans would stop winning the award. At least hertie never gave any speeches next to a dodo shop. But number less.

I am so sorry that I am so delighted, sax, that you've been so self aware about the falls es on the dying maga, the last rose of the maginnis.

I want to find some democrats to give this to, I want to give you to that brain dead senator 呃， from pennsylvania, this name. Thank you. I wanted to give you a derman, but he won.

So I don't know what is to do. You know, it's like, no, listen, when a republican self emulates like rudy or her listen like that, they get laughed out of town. And when the democrat does IT like a federman, that is.

get elected. So I I don't know what to say any of the is olos episode whoa, look at or poor producer neck.

whoever signed the papers for the whole search and seizure t morale guo looks kind of like an idiot so that that was not politically as too okay.

I think you say the F, B, I, then o poorly handled perhaps.

That's great. That's a great one. Actually, we're going to get serious for a second the combination of revelation that we're going to look over this whole year. Remember, Jason, when I I basically spoke up at the time, they raided a moral logo and said that I was heavy handed and unnecessary, and telling .

you guys for years, Donald trump is an idiot savant, minus the savant, why all of you guys just project all of this, like insane, genius, evil level stuff. He's are capable of that. This is a simple tant who likes attention.

He stole a bunch of souvenir that he didn't, hasn't read now kept in a box downs. Just say he had. I was the one .

who champion .

in the souvenir. I know he's a souvenir guy.

You said he was selling secrets to the south.

I not said that.

I said was someone suggested I .

did not in Jerry Christian.

a laboratory .

services theory.

i'm saying the theory .

and and guys and .

this is the same person that basically in the in the beginning of his presidential campaign in twenty sixteen, in front of Hillary clinton, said, absolutely, I bend the laws that you created the tax laws to my favor because i'm not stupid when he called on the tax dodgers and IT turns out, after all these years, he was telling the truth. He bases once again.

the show ends with truth he'd been a great twenty twenty two no.

but honest like that, we learn anything except that these tax laws are a greece ly student and the only people that are consistently guarantee to make money. And these tax laws are real state investors. If you put these two things together, a real estate investor who happened to be very poor at his job, which trump turned out to be packed billions of dollars of N.

L. Wells, that he was able to use the washes taxes for years and years. And by the way, and he was clearly proud of IT, he was just go ding the democrats and not releasing them.

They went through all this, riga, al, and what did we find out? He had huge and owls. He had huge deduction and paid no taxes. Is that shocking?

Any of pell said he came out of the house, told everyone everything you think is going on inside that house is going on, and went back and you walk back inside the house. Yeah.

who was pretty great? You all got IT or I listen. Four, David sacks, the rain man for the queen of kin wah, salt of science, David fruit berg and the dictator and himself to mopy hoitle IT has been an honor and a privilege to do this podcast with you.

gentlemen. This is the longer show in the history of the pod. Enjoy everybody.

A R I P. producer. Next, next forty eight hours, and we will see everybody next year. Love your best. Rainman give IT we open .

sources to the fans and just got .

crazy with.

Should all just get a room just big, huge.

Sexual tension to release.