E111: Microsoft to invest $10B in OpenAI, generative AI hype, America's over-classification problem
01:31:59 Share

Is anybody all seeing a half a second leg with? J, L, like a second leg, one, two, one, two from, is like the way mouth moves.

Well, that always happens .

that here comes ma? Never starts.

Movie black sex. X.

are we going .

recording are ready.

a plus material that .

this is the pallet.

the punch line.

Let's go 干了， 不然。 We, man, give.

We open sources to the fans .

and got great.

Or everybody, welcome to episode one hundred and eleven of the world's greatest podres, according to slate the podcast. That child not be mentioned by the press.

apparently for what .

they did. This is the conundrum. It's so much of a phenomenon that were the number one business and the number one tech podcast in the world, hands down, that the press has a hard time giving us any oxygen because they want to hate us. They want to cover IT.

You're saying they take the ideas, but not the they don't want to say IT they don't want to say that .

they don't want to say IT but anyway.

shout to slay yeah. What I thought was interesting was the guy pointed out that we don't want to subject ourselves to independent journalists asking us independent questions. Therefore, we go direct. And that kind of the the thing nowadays, when everyone says they want to go direct because they don't want to be subject .

to independent internalize, what one might ask themselves why subjects don't want to go direct?

Yes, exactly.

Want to go to journalists?

Yeah because there's there's a specific reason why principles, the subjective stories do not want to have the press interpret what they're saying because they don't feel they are getting a fair shake.

They feel like the chAllenges and we avoid independent scrutiny of our points of view.

And our now the company writing his piece is about us. The question is, when we want to present our side of IT doing to go through their filter or not, why would you to go through their filter when it's always gona be a hit piece? Well, and they they have a class hatred of basically of technology entrepreneurs .

know that .

you're right, jack out.

They don't hate you because you can. You flag to their political biases. You see if and if you do, if you do what S, P, F did, which is basically agree with all of their biases, then, yes, i'll treat you Better. That's the deal. That's how works.

And when you specific large .

media referring to foker OK.

you can name one. I'll trade you. I'll say, well, i'll trade you fox for M S N B, C N, C, N, N and the neuro times, the washington post and the landing magazine on and on and on.

You get a lot of milo edge. I have been able to name fox. The fact the matter is Megan cali, that's a podcast where she's independent.

Now you can name one, I mean, literally one outlet that is not part of this. You mainstream media, and they all think the same way. There are very small differences in the way they think .

it's about clicks. It's all about clicks at this point and it's all about journalism and advocacy. Is that .

company you're calling advocacy is bias and activism APP?

That's what i'm talking about, activists, journalists. Yes.

I think dream on also highlights are really important point, which is you know he started his podcast, it's become one of the most popular forms of sports media and he can speak directly without the filtering and you know classification that's done by the inner journalist and IT seems to be a really powerful trend. The audience really wants to hear direct and they want to hear unfiltered, raw point of view and there and maybe they're still a roll. I think the journalism separate from that, which is to then scrutiny and analyze and question.

and it's not journalist activism, there is activists.

Why does anybody the journal actually?

Well, that depends what the topic isn't what the outlet is. Actually, I would argue that these journalists are doing what they're doing for the same reason that we're doing what we're doing, which is they want to have some kind of influence because they don't get paid very much, right. But the way they have influences to push a specific local agenda, I mean, they're activists.

has become advocacy journalist at me. That's a term I coin for .

IT advocacy. See this bru ha ha where matic ally, he has wrote this article about the fed and about the dead ceiling and through this whole multiple world thousand words home, he didn't understand the difference between a percentage point in the basis point. And so the second .

you're in .

the fed raising twenty five percent.

yes, that's a huge difference. Twenty five percent .

between a principle and an .

outside analysts, right? Like a principal, e has a Better grasp typically of the topics and material generally.

but is considered he's considered within the journalist circle. He's consider the conventional list.

M I. Argument from a journalist is by having that direct access, that person is also biased because they're an agent, because they're player on the field, they do have a point of view, they do have a direction, they want to take things. So IT is a fair commentary that journalists can theoretically play a role, which is there an all field analysts and that do.

I would argue, their less educated animal biased.

then we are that mayor may not be true what the two you guys are debating, which is a very subjective take. But the thing that is cattegat acl and you can't deny, is that there is zero checks about when something as simple as the basis point, percentage point difference isn't caught, improve, freeing, isn't caught by any editor, isn't caught by the people that, you know, help them review this.

And so what that says is all kinds of trash must get through, because there is no way for the average person on twitter to police all of this nonsense of content. This one was easy because I was so numerically literate that IT just stood out. But can you imagine the number of unforced errors journalists make today in their search for clicks that don't get caught out, that may actually tip somebody to think a vers b that I think the thing that kind of undeniable right.

you only need to .

do there is a very simple test for this. If you read, uh, the journalists writing about a topic you are an expert on, whatever the topic happens to be, you start to understand, okay, well, on that story I am ready yeah that they understand about or twenty or thirty percent of what's going on.

But then when you read stories that you're not involved in, you read story about hollywood, I don't know pick an industry or or a region you're not super ware of, you're like, okay, well, that must be a hundred percent correct. And the truth is journalists have access. There is a .

name for a the Michael ton who came up with that.

Yeah so you got but .

no exactly right. But I think it's worse than that is because now the now the mistakes aren't being driven just by sloppiness, laziness, ss, or just a lack of expertise, I thinks, being driven by an agenda. So just to giving an example on the sleep thing, the state article actually wasn't bad.

That kind of made a seem, you know, cool. The sub headline was a close listen to all in the infuriating, fascinating, safe space for silk valley's money. Man, okay, but that the headline changed. So I don't if you guys notice this, the headline now is elon mass inner circles telling us exactly what IT thinks first all like .

yeah it's on they're trying .

wait too hard to like describe us in terms of elon, which you know is maybe two episodes of one hundred and ten but before inner circle, the word they use with chronic and then somebody added because I saw cronies in like one of those tweet you summaries you know where like IT does a capsule, whatever yeah yeah, yeah. Those get frozen in time so that they .

were trying to bash even harder. Whoever writes the article, the article get submitted, maybe gets edited proof or whatever. Maybe IT doesn't, even in some publications in know of the time for IT is are in a race, then they pick they're somebody who's really good at social media.

They pick six or seven headlines, they A, B test them and they even have software for this where they will run a test. Sometimes we'll do a pay test. They put five dollars in ads on social media, which everyone performs the best.

That's the one they go. So it's even more cynical and because people who read the headlines, sometimes they don't read the story, right? Obviously, most people to see the headline interpret that is a story that's why I told you when they did that new republic piece on you with that horrific monster city of illustration. Don't worry about if people just read the headline, they know you're important. Nobody read the story anyway.

but I wasn't about article .

actually that actually took the time to write some process that was actually decent.

Yeah, he had listened to a lot of episodes.

Clearly that was a really good moment. Actually, that was great advice because you gave IT to him and you gave IT to me, because both of us had these things. And Jason said the same thing.

Just look at the picture. And if you're okay with the picture, just move on. I think this be true mostly.

My picture is terrible.

Yeah, but it's close to real and shop. I mean.

the .

Peter.

that s how biased is, right?

You grant up more time IT one looks like you grant. I just kind of kind, not bad, kind looks like you grant. And like noting hill.

I knew that article was going to be fine when the first you know item they presented as evidence of meeting so wrong was basic, hoping to ask chase a blue dean, which was something that was supported by like seventy percent of seven, and cco, which is a ninety percent democratic city so not exactly evidence of some move. Look at .

headline, the quiet political s of David sax so can I ice profit of urban do i'm just lady, you know, people don't get past the six word in the image yeah ninety nine percent of people like, oh my god congrats on the public article a little bit oral Laural lipson you like just can feel the words from their second craft down and nobody .

would know but now apparently if you notice that conferences go, streets look like, you know, walking dead that apparently you're a profit urban. Do I mean, people are so out of touch, I mean, they can acknowledge what people can see with their own eyes?

That's the bias. That's got crazy. And I don't know if you guys saw this really horribly to stop an video of the art gallery owner who's been dealing with owning a store front and severs o which is chAllenging and having to clean up fees and be out trash and whatever every day. And I guess the guy snapped and he's hosing down a homeless person who refuses to leave the front of the store.

I that I just .

like the humanity in this is just insane. Like really like you're housing a human being down terrible, who is obviously not living a great life and know .

I can feel both. J, K, L, I can feel for both them. I agree, that is not good to host a human being down on the other thing and think about the sense of frustration that store or has because he's watching his business go in the toilet, because he's got homeless people living in front of him.

So they're both like being or the .

homeless person being mistreated the strong as being mistreated by the .

city services go yeah.

but that person is not in a privileged position. That person probably the store or the store oner, he's probably fighting to stay and business. I'm saying i'm not saying that's right, but I think the rope I me just what you're trying to do.

what you're .

trying to do is, oh my god, look at this this host person being harvey oppressed. No, that store owner is a victim too.

Yeah, there's no doubt it's business to do. No.

IT. This is .

symbolic of the breaking down of basic society. 来。 第， all of these people are obviously like, this is a horrible moment to even witness, is like you, is like something. Just.

do you have equal empathy for the surrounding and the homeless person or no.

under no circumstances you hold a person down in the face who is homeless. I it's just horrific to watch. This is in humane is a human being now but as a person who wants a store, yeah, my dg grew up in the local business. If people were abusing the story, you're trying to make a living and you ve got to clean up, you know, whatever experiment every day, which horrific guess.

And in that moment, the empathy is not equal. I think you have more empathy, obviously, for the person on the receiving end of that host. okay? But in general, our society has tons of empathy from those people.

We spend billions dollars trying to solve that problem. You never hear a thing about the stories you're going at a business. So on a societal level, you not in that moment. But in general, the lack of empathy is for these middle ass store owners, who may I be, middle class, working class, who are struggling to stay a float. And you look at something like, what is IT like a quarter or third of the store front and seems to score now vacant.

We shocked this person is running. The shocking thing is like, this person is running in our gallery store front in safran, cisco. Like, why would you even bother? Why would you bother? Have a store? Fine, whatever, just go. I mean, everybody's left.

It's just, what mean? Why do you bother if you sopp to stores? Somebody is supposed to you start to court all of the son.

Well, no, I mean, you would shut doubt at some point and find an exit. And business .

has large fixed cost right years ago, exactly.

At some point you have to shut down your story. Just go everything.

J, K, L, isn't. Go to coding school .

online and being to, as a possibility.

a lot of focus. And silk valley, I think in this weirdly fucked up, we do believe the solution.

everything is the guys spent .

years building his retail person camps in front, and the less and he calls the police, the police don't come and move the homeless person. The homeless person stays. Alice's, yeah.

I've stopped going to certain stores in my neighbor. D of the ten being literally fixed in front the storm. I go to the store down the road to get my grocery ies or never like.

I mean, it's not a kind of uncommon situation for a lot of these small business. If they don't on the real estate, the pain rent, uh, they've got high labor costs. You know everything's inflation generally, city populations declining. It's a brutal situation all around.

I think if everybody learns to code or drives in uber, the problem is that in the absence of things like local stores and small businesses, you follow out communities. You have these random attached places where you kind of live, and then you sit in your house, which becomes a prison while water, food from an APP every day. I don't think that is the society that people want. So I don't know. I kind of want small businesses to exist, and I think that the homeless person should be taken care of, but the small business person should have the best chance are trying to be successful because it's hard enough as IT is, the the mortality rate of the of the small business partner is already ninety percent.

It's impossible in sometimes I just be honest.

reflect J I .

not just people .

listen.

i'm saying the guy, you shocked that guy.

even A I left moment in time and you're not showing .

the ten steps .

that LED .

up to IT a thousand .

steps five times. He called the police .

to do something he's resolving. I don't know, man, it's really hard to these videos and it's going on.

It's awful to see. But man, how we can solve this problem? This is the language we use around that.

The fundament problem here is not homeless. No add, it's addiction. You burks on the work like a ninety nine percent of people talk to its other mental illness, addiction. But we keep using this word homeless to describe with the problem. But the issue here is not the lack of of housing, although that's a separate promote california.

but it's spicy, the lack .

of treatment. So the you you can't have a super drug, be available for a ominous Price and give people you know a bunch of money to come here and take IT and not enforcing that, you have to draw the line that's fanno, I sorry for ton is a super drug.

These three alternatives is Mandated rehab, Mandated mental health uh or jail or you know housing services. If uh you're not breaking the law, you don't have mental unless you have drug addiction. And then provide those are the four paths of outcome here, of success.

And if all for those pads were both Mandated and available in abundance, this could be a attractive problem. unfortunately. The man, the Mandate, I mean, guys remember that Kevin bacon movie or Kevin bacon was locked up in A A mental institution but he wasn't like he wasn't mentally ill. It's a famous story, is a famous it's what A I can someone probably get call me an a diet for for messing is something up. But I think um there's there's a story where Mandated mental health services .

like locking .

people up to take care of them when they have mental mental health issues like this, became kind of inhumane. And a lot of the institutions were shut down and a lot of the laws were overturned. And there are many of these cases that happened where they came across as like torture rist to what happened to people that weren't mentally ill. And so the .

idea was like the ah that's another one.

right? And it's unfortunately, but I think that there's some you know, we talk a lot about newbaLance and gray areas, but they're certainly some solution here that isn't black or White. It's not about not having Mandated mental health services and it's not about walking everyone up that has some slight problem. But there's some solution here that needs to be crafted, uh, where you know you don't let people suffer and you don't let people suffer both as the the victim on the street, but also talking .

about fifty and fifty. I think like when people are held because they are danger to themselves or others kind of thing.

right? But you have to see about the power of language here. If we refer to these people as untreated persons and set a homeless persons, and that was the coverage, twenty four, seven in the media, this is an untreated person.

The whole policy prescribe, we completely different, realizes a shortage of treatment. We'd realized there's a shorge of remedies related to getting people in treatment as opposed to building housing. But why why? And laws that .

Mandate IT that that don't enable IT. Because if you don't mate IT, then you enable the free rain and the free living on the street and the open drug markets and all this sort of stuff.

IT is a really easy test for this.

If I was, if he was yourself and you were addicted, or if he was a loved one during your media family members, would you want yourself or somebody else to be picked up off the street and held with a fifty one, fifty or whatever code involuntarily against their will because they were a danger? Would you want them to be allowed to remain on the street? Would you want yourself if you were in that direction rates? And the answer, of course, is you would want somebody would change .

policy perspective on this j house. Let me ask .

you as liberal.

no.

independent of other democrats.

twenty five percent republicans is IT .

not that your individual liberties are not force upon if you were to be put picked up and put a way.

you know, my position on IT is if you're not thinking straight, uh, your in your high inventor, you're not thinking for yourself and you could lose a liberty for a small period of time, seventy two hours a week, know, especially if you're danger to somebody, you know yourself for other people and in this case, if you're on fashion of your own math danger .

I if more people, if more people have that point of and have that debate in. The more open way you could get to some have to resolution .

on it's not .

it's not how to happen. So you guys know this. What we won't say hood is, but someone in my family has some pretty severe mental health issues. And the problem is, because they're an adult, you can't get them to get any former treatment. What soever right.

right?

Do you only have the nuclear option? And the nuclear option is you basically take that person to court and try to seize their power atterley.

which is essentially saying that.

you know, and by the way, IT is so unbelievably restrictive, what happens if you lose that power returnee and somebody else has IT over you? It's just a huge burden that the legal system makes extremely difficult.

What's what the lows? A backstop. You know, the person's committing something illegal, like camping out or doing fine, all math, whatever you can use the law as the back stop against .

all the person can do is really get arrest. Even that is not a high enough bar to actually get power of turning over somebody. The other think that I just wanted you guys to know, I think you know this, but just a little historical context is a lot of this crisis in mental health started because regan defunded all the psychiatric hospitals, he empty them in california.

And that compounded because, for whatever reason, his ideology was that these things should be treated in a different way. And when he got to the presidency, one of the things that he did was he repealed the mental health, I think, is called the mental health systems act M M H S. A, which completely broke down some pretty landmark legislation.

I meet a half and it's and I don't think we've ever really recovered. And that were now forty two years onward from one thousand nine hundred and eighty but or forty three years onward. But just something for you guys to know that that's that's breaking had a lot of positive, but that's one definitely negative check in my book. Against his legacy is his hands on mental health in general and what he did, the defended mental health there.

So i'm i'm i'm not defending the specific decision. There were a bunch of scandals in the one thousand nine and seventies and epidemic ed by the movie one flu over the cocos jc nics, and about the conditions in these mental health homes. And that did create a ground swell to change laws around that.

But I think this idea that like somehow raging is to blame when he hasn't been an office for fifty years as opposed to the politicians you've been in office of the last twenty years. I just think it's letting them off the hook. I mean, Gavin new some ten fifteen years ago when he was mayor, sync asco declare that he would end homelessness within ten years. He just made another declaration like that as governor. So I just feel like brad.

a moment.

I think, thinking about .

changing .

priorities.

We didn't have this problem of massive numbers of people living on the streets. Ten, fifteen years ago, IT was a much small or problem, and I think a lot of us do with fun and all the power of these drugs is increased massively. There's other things going on here. So in any event, I mean, you can question what reggie did in light of current conditions, but I think this problem really started the last ten, fifteen years is like in an order of magnitude bigger way.

these are super drugs. Until people realized, like these are a different class of drugs and they start treating them as such. It's gonna get .

worse there.

There's no half, as far as I know, ragging in the hand out to these addicts, eight hundred dollars a week to feed their addiction. They can live on the streets to discover that is the .

current policy.

the city. All I just wanted to just provide, which is that color that we had a system of funding for the mental health infrastructure, particularly local mental health infrastructure, and we took that back and then we never came forward. And all I was saying is i'm just telling you, we're that I think .

that's part of the solution here is yet we're going to have to basically build up shelters. We're going have to build up.

And to supporting your point, the problem now, for example, is gave a newsom says a lot of these things and now he's gone from a massive surplus to a twenty five billion dollar deficit overnight, which we talked about even a year ago, because that was just the the law of numbers catching up with the state of california, and he's not in a position now to do any of this stuff. So this one else problem may get worse.

Well, they they did appropriate. I forget the number is like ten billion or something out that you know huge budget. They had to solve the prompt homeless, as I would just argue there, not tackling IT in the right way because what happened is there's a giant special interest that formed around this problem, which is the the building industry who gets these contracts to build the, quote, you know, affordable .

housing .

or ten units at a time on Venus beach, like the most expensive land you could possibly build because you get these contracts from the government. So there's now a giant special interest in lobby that formed around this. If you really want to solve the problem. Wouldn't be building housing on the speech, she'll be going to cheap land just outside the city and you'd be building scale shelters, I mean shelters that can have ten thousand people, not ten, and you'll be having treatment service.

But when treatment .

built into that, right, you will be solving this problem at scale and that's not what they're doing.

By the way, do you guys want to hear this week and grip .

um sure more that's .

a great example of grip. I I read something today in bloomer that was unbelievable. There's about two trillion dollars of deck owned by the developing world that has been classified by a non profit, the nature conservation, in this case, as eligible for what they called nature swap.

So this is two trillion of the empty trillions of debt that's about to get defaulted on by countries like believes acquired three luna, say shells, you name IT. And what happens now are the big bulge bracket wall street and the nature conservancy goes to these countries and says, listen, you know, you have a billion dollar trench of debt that's about to go upside down, and you're gna be in defauts with the I M. F will let you off the hook.

And you know, we will negotiate with those bondholders to give them fifty cents on the dollar, but in return, you have to promise to take some of that savings. And, you know, protect the rainforest store, protect the coral re for protect the man, grow trees. All sounds good.

Except then what these folks do is they take that, we package debt, they call IT esg. They market back up and then they sell IT the books like back rub, who have decided that they must own this in the portfolio. So IT literally just goes from one Steve of black rock, which is now mark toxic emerging market debt. And then he gets into someone's four one k as esg debt. Is that unbelievable?

So you could virtual signal and buy some esg to make a shell feel good.

Two trillion doors about esg is that x on is like the number seven, like top rank company according to esg test, even on the list. How crazy is it's .

a complete game. All of those we said this many times, but each of those letters individually mean so much and should be worth a lot to a lot of people. But when you stick them together creates this toxic super, you can just hide the cheese.

yeah. The governance is important in companies. Of course, the environment is important, social change is important. I mean, but why are these things group together in this IT was .

perverted industry jackets and industry of integration solution.

Right speaking, a great microsoft is to put ten billion dollars or something, the ChatGPT g generate A I, as i'm calling IT now is the hottest st thing in sk of valley.

The technology is incredible. I mean, you can question the business model maybe, but the technology is pretty well.

I mean, yeah, so what I say is billion dollars for a company that's losing a billion .

dollars and credit, but also going to look at a lot of other businesses were the down the road. I mean, sure you can model out the future of a business like this and create a lot of really compelling big outcomes potentially.

yeah. So microsoft is close to investing ten in an OpenAI in a very convoluted transaction that people are trying to understand. IT turns out that they might wind up owning fifty nine percent of open I, but get seventy five percent of the cash proof back over time.

Forty nine percent.

Forty nine percent. Yeah, i've OpenAI. But they will get pay back the ten billion dollars so many of time and this obviously includes azure credits uh and ChatGPT as everybody knows this.

Um just incredible demonstration of what A I can do in terms of text based creation of content and answering querists is taken the net bay storm people are really inspired by IT acts. Do you think that this is a defensible real technology? To think this is like a crazy hype cycle? Well.

it's definitely the next V C. Hype cycle. Everyone's kind of glooming onto this because we really right now needs a savior.

Just look at the public mark, everything we're investing in, in the toilet. So we all really want to believe that this can be the next wave. And just because something is a VC hypo cycle doesn't mean that is not true.

So as I think one of our friends pointed out, you know, mobile turned out to be very real. I think cloud turned out to be, but I say very real. Social was sort of real in the sun. I did lead to a few big winners. On the other hand, web three and crypto was a hypo cycle.

turned into a big bus. V, R, falls into the hycy cle public.

a hycy. So far, no one came to explain what web, three years in terms of A I I think that if I did guess, I would say the hype is real in terms of its technological potential. However, i'm not sure about how much potential there is yet for VC to participate because right now, IT seems like this is something that's onna be done by really big companies.

So OpenAI is basically a IT looks like kind of a microsoft proxy. You've got google. I'm sure we'll develop IT through their deep mind asset.

You am sure facebook is going to do something huge and AI. So what I don't know is, is this really a platform that starts seeing all to benefit from? I will say that some of the companies be invested in our starting use these tools.

So I guess, I guess where I am is I think the technology is actually exciting. I wouldn't go overboard on the valuations. I went back to that level of the but .

you think there could be hundreds of. Companies built around an API for something like ChatGPT a map.

I I don't think you to create the AI themselves, but they might be benefit from the apps that that's the thing that has to be proven out.

It's a lot of really fantastic machine learning services available through club vendors today, right? So as there has been one of these kind of vendors and uh, obviously, open a eyes building tools little bit further down on the the stack, but there's a lot of tools that can be used for specific vertical applications.

Obviously, the acquisition of instead by bio and tech is a really solid example in most of the big dollars that are flowing in biotech right now are flowing into machine learning applications where there some vertical application of machine learning tooling and techniques uh around some specific problem said and the problem set of myrick human communication and doing generative media is a consumer application set that has a whole bunch of really interesting product opportunities. But let's not kind of be blind to the fact that nearly every other industry and nearly every other vertical is being transformed today. And there's act of progress being made in funding and getting liquidity on companies and progress with actual products being driven by machine learning systems and have a lot of great examples of this.

So you know, the fundamental capabilities of large data sets and then using these kind of learning techniques in software statistic models to make kind of predictions and drive businesses forward in a way that they're not able to with just human knowledge and human capability alone is really, uh, real. And it's here today. And so I think let's not get caught up in the fact that there's this really interesting consumer market height cycle going on where these tools are not being kind of you validated and generating real value across many other vertical and segments.

Math, when you look at this, microsoft OpenAIdeal an d yo u se e so mething th at's th is co nvoluted, hard to understand. What does that signal to you? As a capital allocators .

and company builder, I would put deals into two categories. One is easy and straight forward, and then two, as you know, by half for you know, the two heart bucket. This is clearly in that second category, but IT doesn't mean this in category.

Well, IT doesn't mean that I won't work in our group chat with the rest of the guys. One person said, there is a lot of complex law. When you go from a nonprofit to a four profit, there is lots of complexity in deal construction.

The original investors have certain things that they want to see. The mayor may not be you know, legal issues at play here that you encapsulated well in the last episode. I think there's a lot of stuff we don't know.

So I think it's important to just like give those folks to benefit that. But yeah, if you're asking me, it's in the too hard bucket for me to really take seriously. Now that said, it's not like I I got shown the deal so I can I can comment.

Here's what I will say. The first part of what sax said, I think, is really important for entrepreneurs to internalize, which is, where can we make money? The reality is that, well, let me just take a prediction. I think that google will open source their models because the most important thing that google can do is reinforced the value of search. And the best way to do that is to scorch the earth with these models, which is to make them widely available and as free as possible.

That will cause microsoft to have to catch up, and that will cause facebook to have to really look in the mirror and decide whether they're going to cap the betting that they've made on A R V R and relocate very aggressively. Ai, I mention this in the I did this like treatment podcast, but that should be what facebook does. And and the reason is if facebook and google and microsoft have roughly the same capability in the same model, there is an element of machine learning that I think is very important, which is called reinforcement learning.

And specifically, it's reinforcement learning from human feedback, right to these R L H F pipelines. These are the things that will make your stuff unique. So if you are start up, you can build a reinforcement learning pipeline.

How you build a product that captures a bunch of usage. We talked about this before. That data set is unique to you as a company.

You can feed that into these models, get back Better answers. You can make money from IT. Facebook has an enormous amount of reinforcement learning inside a facebook.

Every click, every comment, every like, every share. Twitter has that data set. Google inside of gmail and search, microsoft inside of mine craft and hot mail some.

My point is, David is right. The huge companies, I think we will create the substrates, and I think they'll be forced to scorch the earth and give IT away for free. And then on top of that is where you can make money.

And I would just encourage entrepreneurs to think, where is my edge in creating a data set that I can use for reinforcement learning that I think is interesting that kind of saying, I buy the ingredients from the supermarket, but then I can still construct the dish that's unique. And you know, the salt is there, the pepper is there, but how I use that will determine whether you like the thing or not. And I think that know that is the way that I think we need to start thinking about IT.

Interestingly, as we have all pointed out here, opening eye was started as a non profit. The stated philosophy was as technologies is too powerful for any company to own, therefore we're going to make IT open source. And then somewhere in the last couple years, they said we, you know what actually it's too powerful for IT to be out there in the public.

We need to make this a private company, and we need to get ten billion dollars for microsoft. That is the the disconnect. I am trying to .

understand that part twenty fourteen is when google bought deep mind here. And immediately everyone started reacting to a company as powerful as google, having a tool kit and a team as powerful as deep mind within them, and that that sort of power should not sit in anyone hands.

I heard people that i'm close with their close to the organza and the company comment that they thought this is the most kind of scary, threatening, biggest threat to humanity, uh, is google control of deep mind. And that was a native of point of view. But I was warned that was close, that was deeply held by a lot of people to read hofman Peter, till you on moscow of these guys funded the original kind of OpenAI business in twenty and fifteen and here's the link. So i'm .

putting that out here. Um you guys to pull up the .

original the people who don't nonprofit owned stock in a commercial business now but your point is interesting because at the beginning the idea was instead of having google on all of this will make IT all available. And here is the the statement from the original blog post in twenty and fifteen. OpenAI is a nonprofit A I research company.

Our goal is to advanced digital intelligence in the way that is most likely to benefit humanity is all unconstrained by a need to generate financial return. Since our research is free from financial obligations, we can Better focus on a positive human impact. And then, you know kind of went on and the whole thing about same, greg, you on rejected ica P R T L A W U S Y C, you are all donating to support OpenAI, including donations and commitments of over a billion dollars.

Although we expect that to only be a tiny fraction of what we will spend in the next few years, which is a really interesting kind of, if you look back historical perspective on how this thing all started seven years ago and how quickly it's evolved, as you point out, into the necessity to have a real commercial alignment to drive this thing forward without seeing any of these models open source. And during that same same period of time, we've seen google share alphabet and share a number of other prediction dels and and tall kids and publicly available and put them in google's cloud. And so there's both kind of tooling and models and outputs of those models that google has open source and made freely available.

And meanwhile, OpenAI has kind of diverge into the deeply profitable profit seeking kind of enterprise model. And when you invest in OpenAI in the the round that they did before you could generate a financial return, capt. At one hundred six, which is still a pretty amazing for each return you put a billion dollars in, you can make a hundred billion dollars that's that's funding a real commercial and never at that point.

Well, and then to IT is the .

most striking question about this whole thing about what's going on in your ai, and it's one that you have talked about publicly and others have kind of SAT on one side or the other, which is the A I offers a glimpse into one of the biggest and most kind of existential dreads to humanity.

And the question were gonna tackling and the battle that's going to be happening politically and regulatory was, and perhaps even between nations in the years to come is, who owns the A I, who owns the models? What can they do with that? And what are we legally going to be allowed to do with that? And this is A A really hard for that .

now to build on what you're saying ah I just put in py towards people don't know that another framework uh P Y T O R C H, this was not a large built inside of facebook. And then facebook said, hey, we want to democratize machine learning. And they made, and I think they put a bunch of executives, they may have been funded, those executives to go work on this open source project. So they have issued taken this and they went very uh open source with IT and then TensorFlow, which you have an investment in timah. TensorFlow was inside I investment .

in TensorFlow w we build TensorFlow.

The public source came out of google. You invest in another company.

But we were building silicon for machine learning. That's yes.

right? But it's based on tensor.

o. No, no, no, no. Is the the the founder of this company was the founder of TensorFlow.

G O.

I start not of TensorFlow, part of me of the of T, P, U, which was google's internal silicon that they built to accelerate TensorFlow, right, if that make sense.

And so that's the I know I I don't want to be cynical about the whole project or not. It's just the confounding part of this. What is happening IT reminds me, I don't know if you remember this.

the biggest opportunity here, the biggest opportunity here for facebook. I mean, they need to get in this conversation A S A P. I mean, to to think that, like, look, a pitch, ch was like a pretty seminal piece of technology that a lot of folks in.

In A I machine learning we're using for a long time TensorFlow before that. And what's so funny about like google and and facebook is they're little bit kind of like they're not really making that much progress. I mean, facebook released this kind of like rando version of alphago ld recently.

It's not that good. I think these companies really need to get these products in the wild as soon as possible. IT cannot be the case that you have to email people and get on some list. I mean, this is google and facebook guys. Come on.

This is the, I think, the big innovation of OpenAI sax to bring you in the conversation. They actually made an interface and let the public play with IT to the tune of three million dollars a day in cloud credits or costs.

which, by the way, just on that, my my son was telling me, he, like, k, dad, do you want me to tell you when the best time to use ChatGPT is on my hat? He's, I got my friends and I ve tried. We've been using IT so much, we know now when we can actually get resources. Oh, wow, and it's such an interesting thing. We're like a thirteen year old kid knows you when it's mostly computer tensor that is unusable and went to come back .

and use this time sex, a technology, became this mainstream and captured people's imagination this broadly.

Maybe the iphone or something. Yeah look, it's it's powerful. There's a questions. powerful. I mean, I love two minds about IT because whenever something is the hype cycle, I just reflexively wanted be sceptical of IT. But on the other hand, we have made a few investments in this area. And I mean, I think IT is powerful and it's it's going to be in a neighbor of some really cool things to come.

There's no problem about that. I have two pieces of more insider information. A one, I have a ChatGPT IOS on my phone.

One of the nice folks that OpenAI included me in the test flight and is the simplest innovation we've ever seen. But basically, you type in your question, but he keeps your history, and then you could search your history. So IT looks sacks like you're an eye message, basically, and IT has your threads.

And so I asked, what are the best restaurants in yarn vill in a town near um mapper and then I said, which one has the best duck and IT literally I gave me a great answer. Then I thought, wait a second, why is this not using a theory or ex alike in your face? And then why is in IT? Or here's a video that I gave the video to.

Nick, by the way, just what you're doing right now is you're creating a human feedback reinforcement learning pipeline for ChatGPT. So just the fact that you ask that question, and you know, over time, if ChatGPT has access to your G P S. Information and then knows that you want to restaurant a vers b, they can into IT and IT may actually prop you to ask, hey Jason, we notice you are in the area.

Did you go to potato? If you did, how would you at one through five? That reinforcement learning now allows the next person that asks, what are the top five restaurants to say?

Well, you know, over a thousand people that have asked question. Here's actually the best answer versus a generic rank of the open web, which is what the first data that is. That's what's so interesting about this. So this is why if you're a company that already owns the eye balls, you have to be running to get this .

stuff out there. Well, then this answer, uh, you're cited yet. Well, this is the first time i've actually seen ChatGPT site and this is I think, a major legal breakthrough.

I didn't put a link in, but if it's gna use alb's data, I don't know their permission for me up but it's quoting alpa IT should link to french lunch potato and bushi hn actually has the best of for the record. And I did have that ducks. I ask this afterwards to see you in a scenario like this. But IT could also, if I was talking to IT, I could say, hey, which one has availability this afternoon or tomorrow for dinner and make the phone call for me, like google assistant does, or any number of I was thinking about next tasks. This was an incredibly powerful display in a one point or product.

I was thinking about what you said last week, and I fell back to the music industry in in the world of napster. And what happened was there was a lot of musicians, I think metallic being the most famous one, famously suing npr because I was like, hey, listen, like you're allowing people to take my content, which they would otherwise pay for. There's economic damage that I can measure.

That legal argument was meaningful enough that ultimately nabbs or were shut down. Now there are other versions of that that folks created, including us. At we up, we created a headless version of that. But if you translate that problem, said here, is there a claim that yelp can make in this example that they're losing money that you know, if you were going through google or if you are going through their APP, there is the sponsored link revenue and the advertising revenue that they would have got that they wouldn't get from here. Now that doesn't mean the ChatGPT can't figure that out, but it's those kinds of problems that are gonna a little thorney in these next few years that have to really get figured out.

This is what if .

you are a human reading every review on yelp about duck, then you could write a blog post in which you say many reviews on, yet say that push on is the best dog. So the question is, like, is GPT help to that standard or or something different? And IT is linking to IT? Is linking to IT enough?

This is the question of asking IT should .

be because I logue IT should be because if you look at the four part test for fair use, which I had to go through because blogger had the same issue, we would write a blog post and we would mention what moser g review of a product and somebody else is. And then people say, oh, I don't need to read what moskos, I need a wall street journal subscription. And we say, what we're doing, an original work.

We're comparing two or three different.

you know human is comparing two or three different reviews and we're adding something to IT. It's it's not a it's not interfering with what mosby's sbility to gets subscribers in the wall street y journal. But the effect on the potential market is one of the four tests.

And just reading from stanford, uh, quote on fair use, another important various factors, whether you used deprive the copyright owner of income or undermines the newer potential market for the copyright work, depriving a corporate owner of income is very likely to trigger a lawsuit. This is true even if you are not competing directly with original work. And we will put the link to stanford here.

This is the key issue, and I would not use help in this example. I would not open the yelp up. You get no commerce and you lose.

So ChatGPT and all these services must use citation tions of where they got the original work. They must link to them and they must get permission. That's where this is orignal. Shake out .

permission. Forgive our permission. I mean, you can get a bit of data set if you have to get permission in advance, right? You have to go make you.

It's going to be be the large days .

that cora yp.

the APP store reviews, amazon's reviews. So there are large corpus of data that you would need like crag list has famously never allowed anybody's great crag list. The amount of data inside greg list as but one example of a data set would be extraordinary.

Able ChatGPT on ChatGPT is not allowed to, because as you brought up robot step T S T last week, there's gna need to be an A I D T X T. Are you allowed to use my data set in A I and under? And how will I be compensated for? And i'll allow you to use create list. But you have to link to the original post. And you have to note that the .

other great area that isn't there today but may emerge is one section two thirty gets rewritten. Because if they take the protections away for the facebook and the google of the world, for the basically for being an algorithm publisher and saying an algorithm is equivalent to a publisher, what IT essentially saying is that an algorithm is kind of like doing the work of a human in a certain context.

And I wonder whether that's also an angle here, which, now this algorithm, which today, David, you use, you set the example. I read all these blog posts. I write something.

But if an algorithm does IT maybe, can you then say, no, actually, there is intent there that different than if a human to do IT. I know my point. Very complicated issues that are going to get sorted out.

And I think the problem with the hype cycle is that you're going to have to marry IT with an economic model for VS to really make money. And right now, there's just too much betting on the come. So to the extent you're going to invest IT makes sense that you put money into open a eye because that's safe because the economic model of how you make money for everybody else is so unclear.

It's clear actually, I have IT for business. I just signed up for ChatGPT premium. They had a survey that they shared on their discord server, and I filled out the survey and they did a Price discovery survey freeburg. What's the least would pay the more you would pay, what would be too cheap of a Price for ChatGPT pro, and what would be too high of a Price I put in in like fifty box a month would be what I would pay. But I wish you thinking, imagine ChatGPT allows you feedback to have a slack channel called research.

You could go in there, or anytime you're in slack you do slash chat or sash ChatGPT and you say, slash ChatGPT, tell me, you know, what are the venues available in which we did this actually, for? I did this for venues for all subjects. And what are the venues that seed over three thousand people in vegas? And I just gave us the answer OK.

That was the job of of the local event planner. They had that list. Now you can pull that list from a bunch of different sources. I mean, what would you pay for that a lot? Well.

I think one of the big things that happening is all the old business models don't make sense anymore in a world where the software is no longer just doing what it's done for the last sixty years, which is what is historically to defined as information retriever.

So you have this kind of hierarchical storage of data that you have some index against, and then you go and you search and you pull data out and then you present that data back to the customer or the user of the software. And that's effectively been how all kind of data has been utilized in all systems for the past sixty years. In computing, largely, what we've really done is kind of built an evolution of application layers or software tools.

To interface with the fetching of that data, the retrieval of that data and the display of that data. But what these systems are now doing, what A I type systems or machine learning systems now do, is the sympathy of that data. And the representation of some sympathy is of that data to use the user in a way that doesn't necessarily look anything like the original data that was used to make that sympathy.

And that's where business models like a yell, for example, or like a web crawler that crawls the web and then presents web page directories to you, those sorts of models no longer make sense in a world with the software. The signal to noise is now greer. The signal is greater than the noise.

And being able to present to you a syn sis of that data and basically resolve what you're objective is with your own consumption and interpretation of that data, which is how you historically use these systems. And I think that's where there is. You know, going back to the question of the hype cycle, I don't think it's about being a hype cycle.

I think it's about the the investment opportunity against fundamentally rewriting all computer tools because if all computor ls ultimately can use this capability in their interface and in their modeling and IT very much changes everything. And one of the advantages that I think um businesses are gonna watch on to which we talked about historically is novelty in their data in being able to build new systems and new models that aren't generally available. Example in biotech and farmer, for example, having uh screening results from um from very expensive uh experiments and running lots of experiments and having a lot of data against those experiments gives a company and uh an advantage in being able to do things like drug discovering.

We're going to talk about that in a minute versus using publicly known n screen libraries or publicly available protein modeling libraries and then screen against those and then everyone's got the same candidates in the same targets, the same you know kind of clinical Jackson, are you going to try and result from from that output? So um so I think novelty and data is one way that advantage uh kind of arises. But really, you know that just kind of you know where is there an edge? But fundamentally, every business model can age and and will need to be rewritten that dependent on the historical, on the legacy of kind of information retrieval as the core of what computing is, is used to dip sex.

On my other progress, I was having a discussion of money about the legal profession. What impact would IT be if ChatGPT took every court case, every argument, every document, and somebody took all of those legal cases on the legal profession, uh, and then the filing of a lawsuit, the defending of a lawsuit, public defending prosecutors.

What what data could you figure out if I just to think of the recent history, you look at chess of boodle, you could literally take every case, every argument he did put IT through IT and say, you know, versus an outcome in another state. And you could figure out what's actually going on with this technology. The impact of this have on the legal field that you are a non practicing attorney. You illegal .

degree I never practice rather than one summer at all. But no, I think I pass the bar. I could pass the bar. Yes, yes, I did. I, yes.

of course.

down to n and eighteen.

I may not pass the bar. But I know a little shit enough .

to know that you can be curious in terms of a very common question that a an associated law firm would get asked would be something like summarized legal precedents in favor of x right? And that you can imagine GPT doing that like instantly.

Now, I think that the question about that, I think these two questions, one is, can you prompt GPT in the right way to get the answer you want? And I think to math, you share that really seeing video showing that people are developing some skills around knowing how to ask GPT questions to right away exact prompt engineering. why?

Because GPT a command line interface. So if you ask GPT a simple question about what's the best restaurant in you know, nappa IT knows how to answer that, but there are much more complicated questions that you can't need to know how to prompt in the right way. So it's not clear to me that a command line in your face is the best way of doing that.

I could imagine apps developing that create more of like a GUI. So we're an investor, for example, in copy AI, which is doing this for copywriters and markers, helping them write blog posts and emails. And so you imagine putting that like you know gooey on top of ChatGPT, they're ready been kind of doing this.

So I think that's part of IT. I think the other part of IT is on the answer side, you know how accurate is IT? Because in some professions, having ninety or ninety five or ninety nine percent accuracy is okay, but in other professions you need six nine accuracy, meaning ninety nine point nine nine, nine nine percent accuracy. okay? So I think for a lawyer going into core, you know you probably need I I don't know that .

depends on on is ninety .

nine percent accuracy good enough? Is ninety five percent accuracy good enough? I would say probably for a court case, ninety five percent probably not good enough.

I am not sure GPT that even ninety five percent yet. But could I be helpful? I could could could the associate start with ChatGPT, get an answer and then value .

probably you. It's banging on some law model for a year. Again, that's that reinforcement learning we just talked about. I think you'd get precision recall of the charts and they would be perfect. By the way, just a cute thing.

I don't know if you guys got the female IT came about an hour o from read hofman and read said to me, hate math I I create its fireside chat pots, a special podcast mini series where I will be having a set of conversations with ChatGPT so you can go to youtube, by the way, and see read having. And he is a very smart guy, so this should be kind of cool and by by ChatGPT will have an A I generated voice powered by the text to speech platform play dot H T good youtube. You want to see, read, have a have a conversation with tragic t .

but I mean to math, we have a conversation with the two David, every week is the difference. We know how this going to turn out.

hey but actually so synthesizing um to mos point about reinforcement learning with something you said jack l in our chat which actually thought was pretty smart. There's a first yeah so i'm going to give you credit here because I don't think you've set IT on this this episode, which is you said that these OpenAI capability eventually going to become commoditized or certainly much more widely available. I don't know if that means that, that would be totally commodified. There will be four players, but theyll be music players that to offer them. And you said the real advantage will come from applications are able to get a hold of poetry y data sets and then user prieste data sets to generate insights, and then learn a much more set about reinforcement learning, if you can be the first out there in a given vertical with a prieta data set, and then you get the advantage, the mode of reinforcement learning, that would be the way to create, I think.

sustainable business number you said this week is the J. P. Morgan conference. Freeboard mentioned IT last week, I dinner on wednesday with this truly interesting company, baserite. And what they have is basically a library of legal right.

And so these lions are used as a substrate to deliver all kinds of molecules inside the body. And what's interesting is that they have a portfolio of like a thousand of these. But really what they have is they have all the nuclear medicine about whether that works.

So you know, there they target guo blast, stomach ob lam. And so all of a sudden they can, they can say, well, this legal can actually cross the blood brain barrier and get to the brain. They have an entire data set of that, and a whole bunch of nuclear imagery around that.

They have something for soft cco a so they that data set. So to your point, that's really viable because that's real work that google or microsoft or OpenAI won't do, right? And if you have that and you bring IT to the problem, you can probably make money. You know, there's a business there to be built.

Just building on this conversation, I just realized like A A great prompt engineer is going to become a title and an actual scale, the ability to interface with, well, no, a prompt engineer, somebody who is very good at talking to these you know instances and maxims ing the result for them. And we're refining the results for them. Just like a detective who asked great questions, the that person is going to a be ten or twenty times more valuable. They could be the previous ten x engineer in the future of as as in a company and as we will talk about austerity and doing more with less and eighty percent less people running twitter now, or amazon laying off eighteen thousand people, sales first laying off a thousand, facebook laying off ten and probably another ten thousand, what canali tic effect like could this have? We could be sitting here in three or four, five years and instead of running a company like a with eighty percent less people, maybe you could run IT with .

ninety eight percent less people. Look, I think directionally, it's the the right statement. I mean, you know, I I made the statement a number of times that I think we move from this idea of creator economy and rater economy, where historically was kind of labor economy, where humans use their physical labor to do things that we were knowledge workers, we used our our brains to to make things.

And then ultimately, we kind of, I think, resolved to this naratu economy, where the way that you kind of can state intention and and Better manipulate the tools to drive your intentional outcome, the more successful you going to be. And you can kind of think about this is being the artist of the past, the vince I was um so what made him so good was he was technically incredible trying to reproduce a photographic like giving tree using, uh using paint. And there's this really great kind of museum exhibits on how you did IT using is really interesting, kind of like slight mirror systems.

And then the the Better. The artist of the twenty first century, the twenty century was the best user of adobe photoshop. And that person is not necessarily the best painter.

And the artist of the twenty second century isn't going to a look like the photoshop expert and it's not gonna look like the the, the painter. It's going to look like something entirely different. IT could be who's who's got the most creative imagination.

In driving the software to drive new outcomes. And I think that the same analogy can be used across every marking, every industry. However, one thing to note J L, it's it's not about austerity because the the the ladye argument is when you have new tools and you get more leverage from those tools, you have less work for people to do and therefore everyone suffers.

The reality is new work emerging and new opportunities emerge. And we level up as a species. And when we level up, we all kind of fill the gaps and expand our our productivity, our capability.

said I thought what jack I was saying was more that google will be smaller didn't mean that the pie wouldn't grow is just that, that individual company is run differently. But there will be hundreds of more companies or thousands more, millions more.

I I have an actual punch up for you instead of narrative. It's the conductor economy. It's your you're conducting a symphony who will punch up, punch up there.

But I do think like we're going to there is going to be somebody who sitting there like member time cruiser minority report as a detective, was moving suber around with the interface, with the gloves and everything. This is kind of that manifested. You could even if you're not netley, you would say, hey, I want to see this company for copyright infringement. Give me my best arguments.

And then on other side, say, hey, I want to know what the next three features I should put into my product is can you examine who are my top twenty competitors and then who have they hired the last six months? And what are those people talking about on to you? You can have this conductor know who becomes really good at that level. The tasks .

you have, the level up that happens in the book. Under game, I think, is good example of this, where the guy goes through the entire kind of ground up, and ultimately his commanding armies of space, ships and space, and his orchestration of all of these armies is actually the skill set that wins the war. People.

are you predicted that there would be like all these people that create these action from the content. But I think this read altman thing could be pretty cool. Like, what if he wins a grammy? Y for his computer created part, cast many series thing.

I really decide whether the first A I novel going to get published by a major publisher. I think that happens this year. One's the first A I symphony going to get performed by a major symphony orchestra.

And when is the first A I generated screen play that turned into an A I generated 3d movie that we all watch？ And then the more exciting one, I think, is, when do we all get to make our own A I video game where we instruct the video game platform with me? I don't think that's happening for three or four years, but when he does, I think everyone's got these .

numerous of environments so they can live in.

I have a question.

we have these computer systems just like to use a question of game theory for second there. These models are iterating rapidly. These are all mathematical models so inherent in, like to say this, the perfect answer, right?

Like if you had perfect precision recall, if multiple models get there at the systemic level, everybody is is sort of like they get to the game theory optimal. They're all of nashik liberum, right? All these systems working at the same time. Then the real question would then be, what the health do you do that? Because if you keep getting the same answer, if everybody then knows how to ask the exact right question, and you start to go through these situations where you are like, maybe there is a diop, an helsa pe jobs. Maybe that's the elan world, which is, you can, you can recursively find a logical argument where there is no job that's possible, right? And now i'm not saying that that path is likely path, but i'm saying IT is important to keep in mind that that path of outcomes is still very important to keep in the back of our mind as we figure these .

things out for free. Berg, you know before about this, like you will more work be created. Of course, artistic pursuits of podcasting is a job now being an influence as a job out. A new things emerge in the world. But here in the united tes in one nine hundred and seventy, i'm looking at um fred, i'm looking the same for at nine hundred and seven, twenty six point four percent of the country was working in a factory who was working in manufacturing. You want to guess what that is in twenty twelve .

percent IT IT was .

twenty six percent in one nine hundred and seventy and in twenty fifteen and they stop the percentage in manufacturing said they discontinued that IT was a ten. So it's possible we could just see, you know, the concept of office work, the concept of knowledge work is going to follow pretty inevitable, the path of manufacturing that that seems like a pretty logical area. Now I think .

we should be OK.

So how would we like to rule in the show now? Should we talk about biden and the documents and rule in the show with political dog? Or should we dog about since has been such a great episode so far, what do we want to talk about next?

I'm going to come of choice. Don't want to talk about.

So how we .

are talking .

about private jj, according to you, when is in possession of classic fied documents in the home? Yes, that apparently have been taken. An unauthorized men are basically stolen. He have his home rated .

by the FBI. Almost close, close. yeah. If so, anyway, the biden, as of the taping of this, has now said there's a third batch of classified documents. This group, I guess there was one at an office, one at a library. Now the third group is in his garage with this core vet, certain ly not looking good at an independent.

say in his defense, they say the garage was locked, meaning that you could use a call door opener to to close that IT was locked when I went closed.

so prety much as secure as the documents about logo. Same equivalency. No.

no, no. I would actually, I mean this to be perfectly fair. The documents and morag go were locked in a basement.

The FBI came, checked that out, said, we'd like you to lock those up. They locked him up. So a little safer than being, but fund the same. Uh, the only .

difference here would be what sacks, when you look at these two cases.

all that in one case, mary garland disappointed independent council to investigate trump. And there is no such a special council or investigator appointed to investigate by that. I mean, these things .

are function to say, put body on.

put. I don't they have a point, a special council yet?

No, they did. As an hour ago, a special council was appointed.

OK did just have .

yeah one hour O A Robert. Her is OK. I guess .

there are real questions to look into. Hear, the documents apparently were moved twice. Why were they move to ordered that? What was a classified document doing in bints personal library? What do the documents protein to do? They touch on the biden family's business dealings in ukraine, in china.

So there are real things to look into here. But let me just take a step back now that the last three presidential candidates have been ensnared in these classified document problems. Remember, it's bit now and then trump and Hillary clinton.

Before trump, I think it's time to step back and asked, are we over classifying documents? I mean, are we fetishizing these documents? Are they all really that sensitive? IT seems to me that we have an overclass ation problem, meaning that ever since foia was passed, a few information, the government can avoid accountability and and prying eyes by simply labelling any document is classified.

So over class, he was a logical response by the permanent government to the freeing information act and now is gone to the point we're just about everything handed to a president or vice president is classified. So I think I can understand why they are all making this mistake. And I think a compounding problem that we never d classy anything. There's all these records from the Kennedy assassination crazy.

and they're supposed to have d classified. These C I A. Keeps filibustering on the release of the J F. K. assiniboine. ments.

And we've been told they have they, they have to stop and they have to release them. And then they keep rejecting stuff, which is making IT. Mean, I hate to be a conspiracy. There is here, but what are they trying to cover up? I mean, this is a long time .

ago that only went interpret. But even for more mundane documents, there are very few documents that need to be classified after even, say, five years. You could argue that, which is we automatically declassifying them after five years and let's go through the process to get replication fied mean, I say like this, you guys in business, I know it's not government in business, how many the documents that you deal with are still sensitive or trade secrets? Five years later.

certain ly twenty years.

certain ly twenty years later, they're not the only documents in business that I think I deal with that you could call sensitive are the ones that pertains to the companies future plans, right? Because you won't want a competitive to get those doesn't capful things here.

Even that was not that sensitive because by the time you go public, it's legally .

has .

to be public.

You have that. I mean, it's so like in business, I think our experience has been there is very a few documents that stay sensitive, that nature remain secret. Now look, if biden or trump, ever, they're reviewing the schematics to the javelin missiles system or two, you know how we make our nuclear bombs or something. Obviously, that needs to say secret forever. But I don't believe our politicians are reviewing those kinds of documents.

Well.

we both, I do not really understand what IT is that there review .

and why are they keeping needs to .

be classified fires and why are .

they are keeping them with the issue we discuss previously, we actually agreed on that. I think there is keeping.

I think, a simple xian for why there keeping them, jon, that the that everything is more classified and there's a zillion documents. And if you look like both biden and trump, these documents were mixing with a bunch of personal effects. Ama mentos, my point is, if you work in government and handle documents through all classified.

so, and if the national archive's for them back, or are you find them, you should just give them back. I mean, that is, that's going to wind up being the rock trumped didn't give them back, and but I did.

So that s no, no, no. The I went to try basement. They looked around.

They put a lock on this. They seem to okay with that initially, then maybe they change their minds. I don't know.

I'm not defending. Try very clear that wouldn't .

give him back in that. The point i'm making is that now that biden, trump and hilly clynton have been ensnared in, this is IT time to rethink the fact that were over classifying so many documents. I mean, just think about the incentives that that we're creating for our politicians.

Okay, just think about the incentives. Number one, never use email member helly planned in the whole email server. You got be nuts to use email.

Number two, never touch a document. Never touch a document. what? never. Anyone hand you a document, flushed them down the toilet. The one hand you a document.

If you're a politician and elected official, the only time you be handling anything is going to a clean room, right? You know, make an appointment, going to read something, don't take notes, don't bring a camera, and then leave. I mean, this is no way to run a government.

It's who does this benefit, who does this benefit? IT doesn't benefon election officials. IT makes IT almost impossible for them to act like Normal people. IT benefits the insiders, the permanent government.

You're missing the most important part about the sex. This was, if you want to go to conspiracy there, is this was a set up by plant to the documents here so that we could create the false equivalency and start up biding versus trump twenty twenty four. This ensures that now trump has something to fight with biden about, but is going .

to help from both tainted, equally tainted, the same.

So they are in now.

Try the new cycle.

No, I think I think the opposite. I think my garland now is going to have to drop the prosecution against trump for the stolen documents, or at least that part of what they've investigating him for. They might still investigating .

over january six or something. They can invest and to.

But my point is like to think about, look, both sides are engaging hyper parsonage the way right now the that the conservatives on the right they are attacking about IT now for the same thing that the left was attacking trump. My point is like to take a step back and again, think about the incentives we're creating about how to run our government. You can use email and you can touch documents.

and everything is investigation in the second office.

And by the way, if you don't ever go in a politics, if you're a business person, because I will investigate every deal you ever did prior private to getting into politics .

and what what to do when you try to get your treasury position, what's going up so you're not going to take a position.

My point is that the washing insiders, by which I mean the permanent washing establishment, I eat the deep state, they're creating a system in which they're running things. And the elected officials barely can Operate like Normal .

functioning humans.

There I just.

I heard a great rumor. This is total gossip mongering. Oh, here we go. Uh that you know, one of the griffin s best out is to get the scientist selected so that he can become treasury secretary.

I mean, kenyans in would get tired if he wanted IT, and then he would be able to divest all of siddle tax free. So he would mark market like thirty billion dollars, which is a genius way to go out now. Then IT occurred to me, oh my god, that is me.

And sexy path too. But a lot less money. But say that.

But why would I be tax free? When you get appointed to those branch, those senior posts, you're allowed to either stick in a blind trust or you can solve with no capital gains. what? Yeah what?

Well, because they want you. They want you to die. That anything that, yes, anything that presents a conflict, they want you to die. Diverse ince, the argument is if you have if you're force to .

divest IT to enter our government.

you should be forced. If I become .

mayor of i've take the bus.

I got an electronic bike. To answer freebooters point, I think city security, there's a lot of folks that would buy that because I just the security trading business and then sited the hedge fund, probably something like a big butt break, a bank or blackstone, probably blackstone, in fact, because now blackstone can plug IT into a truly dollar asset machine, is I think there will be fires out the door.

This is, this is .

an incredible .

grip.

Now I but that's not a grip that's like blues of the laws. They forced .

you to tell everything.

I think you're miss using the word to continue to genuinely the the life.

Make you a little .

difference that or you're dumb.

And you take a camera position, you take cap gains, what other where does that exist?

Yes, that if you were asked to serve.

look, any Normal person who wants to serve in government, you can use email and you can touch a document and every deal you've ever done gets investigate. And would you want to do? Why would you want to do? IT? I mean, all setting that you gets to dius tax free.

Me, think of protest that too much.

David s that you to know this? Rule three.

no, I know, I know.

I like a ich, I looked up.

Gr, I know. IT means that to engage in a petty or small scale swining. W, I don't think selling a thirty one billion dollar and .

more combating rock stones, uh, series on netflix is good. Oh my god, IT is so, so depressing. I don't say like just that.

That series, there is no glimmer of light or hope, or positivity or recall. Everyone is a victim. Everyone suffers. I, so D, P, M selves, one, get the cancer and I M alive the money.

He went, got money back from these people who were eighty years hold and retired and spend that money decades ago. And he sew them and took their homes away from them. And no one, and they had no one. They were part of the game. No one, no one want IT was a brutal, awful, by the way, that's gonna .

really interesting as we enter this as B F trial. Because that is the that is what happens if you.

that Better direct of new york said this case is becoming too big for them, because all the places that F, S, P F said money, all those pants and all those political donations to go and investigate where that money went and see if they can get IT back. And it's going to open up an investigation into each one of these campaign, finance an election and kind .

of interfering O C A R, C, A. On the other end of the spectrum, I did watch this weekend triangle of sadness. Have you guys, I want my god and said, this is great.

It's so dark to the David a, listen, this is one of, I thought I was. I didn't pay off the way I thought, but this is one of the best setups you'll see in a movie. So basically, it's a bunch of people on on a luxury yet.

So you have a bunch of rich people as the guests, then you have the staff that interacts with them. And this is like moscow casion. And then, and in the bottles of the ship, what you see are asian and black workers that support them OK. So the in, in some ways, is a little bit of a microcosm of the world.

H, I never say a microcosm of something else and .

then and then what happens is there's like a ship back, basically I don't .

come but .

and so but no, but i'll just so so the plot is you have this occasion, patriarchy, that that get flip side up, upside down. Because after the ship back, the only person who knows how to make a fire and catch the fish is the filipino woman who is in charge of cleaning the toilets. So SHE becomes in charge. So now you .

flip to this immigrant. Matti are pretty great meditation on class. And well, you know, they say, boys, still a little, only throw you in still a lot, and they make you king famous.

People don quote, all right, well, this been a great episode. Did great to see. Abbasid, austerity menu tonight.

Trmd, what's on the austerity menu tonight? What are we doing? Salad, uh, some tuna .

sandwich. Es, no, I think, uh, I think kerman is doing, uh, I think. Dd.

the yeah, that's yeah.

that's a good fish. J, I once had a great .

droid .

in when .

it's done.

Well, the diode kicks .

is only one way to cook a derobe. Do you know what that is you got to? You got is the way they didn't.

Venus, you gotta cook the whole fish. Yeah, yeah. okay. And then after you cook the fish, then you deep .

bone IT. And yeah. This podcast made us into .

moral and check out on a little disappointed you couldn't agree with my take on this document scandal. Instead of junking in a partin way, I tried to explain why was a problem of our whole political system.

I like your theory. I I, I.

I think you know you can too much to be different.

I think that I told these guys are just take your I just take your party grades a little bit more. But you know, compare your craft, are we going to play .

saturday after the world car game? And you guys interested in playing saturday days? Because I got the hall pass and I can do a game?

I don't know. Ah, I have to check with my boss who's going?

Are you get sex? Are you gna come to play poker? Light stream thing for the day, the way, uh.

I double IT. No, he doesn't .

want .

to interact with humans.

That does not play well. And confirmation hearings.

the last I did, one of those Allen kidding destroyed me on camera. I like, like, I had two feet at every time he bluff, I follow every time. Yeah, the that .

I called .

the classic.

So so IT has to .

do with a cabinet positions. He doesn't need to be seen recklessly gambling.

So, but you could any cabinet position? Sex.

which one stay?

Treasury .

travel? vel. You never at home.

always on the plane. I know. I don't know that those, like cabinet positions are that important.

I mean, they run these giant bureaucracies that again, are permanent. You can find anyone. So if you can fire a person, do they really report to you?

Idea, idea. Like, put a bunch of hard line C, E, O, I people in charge haven't blow up these things, make a more efficient, didn't really work.

yeah. Well, you know why a CEO is actually in charged? Like elon, he walks in.

He doesn't like what you're doing. How is far you? You can fire anyone. How do you manage them when they don't have to listen to anything? You say that the whole government right now, our cabinet heads, our fig heads for these departments.

these no or that yes, you're still .

take look at that know? I think I have another deal, I think going for the sender ship first. What is the best ambassadorship you can tell .

which bassam or ship is the one charged for IT? yeah. So I think I think london is the .

most expensive.

I think .

that one fifteen, that's that's what sexes fourth least expensive home cost.

No, you have been every year to you. You only you fired him. You could be the ambassador to gini or the ambassador to the U. K. You get the same budget.

Actually was kind of funny, as I know, two people who serves in pastors under trump. And I was really cheap to get those, because no one, no, no one points to be part of the trap.

Ministration there a fire cell? Two for .

one on fire cell after, but.

but who live to be taken.

but by one of them. And you can just break out. The name was telling me I was the best thing because he ended .

up select t trade by those guys because ambassadors, a lifetime titles. So you're ambassador.

whatever no one to remember .

was president .

in ceremonial things I mentioned making an impact. And the problem with all these positions, I mean, being a cabinet official is not much different. Being an ambassador.

so you're a, you're going to enlist n in the navy?

no. What has a bigger impact being on all in or being an embassy who's more influential? Sex on the all in pod or as the embattled sweden.

but .

actually all in pod is more impact for way.

This is why I take issue with your statement about the term. You have become the mastering .

media more than .

most of the folks that .

no and stop genuflecting .

point independent. Do things going to last another .

three episodes? I think that is .

the top word of .

so h is that is somebody doing .

an analysis with ChatGPT of the words used here.

No, but tax brought that word up. Just it's a wonderful word. It's not used enough.

Everybody, i'll see you next time on the all in podcast. Comments are turned back on, have added you animals.

love guys, 拜拜， 拜拜。

We open sources to the fans, and we .

just got crazy with.

You should all just get a room, just have one big, huge orgy, because they like sexual attention, but they. 想到。

good. 我 一定 只 给。