E131: 2024 Fantasy President picks, debt ceiling agreement, Dollar dominance & more
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Freeburg get punchy, now get party of, says, punch rug salty freeburg reminds me a story. First we can we're waiting in line to go to the on core beach club to see cargo and go mean freeburg the back of the line. Everybody else has gotten through. All you guys are filtering into the book.

cargo .

everywhere, and they say, take up your computer. So I put up my phone. That's all of my key art. Big take out of phone, this key card, and a small bag of the salt vico salted postshow.

He .

said he .

was without .

that food. The guy says, no food in the club. no.

And he goes, what do you mean no food? This is in a bag. It's like it's just professionals.

They get an argue back and back. These like, i'm going to take a stand. This is out this I think I so we go inside, this is where he takes system.

And then he's like, can you believe that they took my fucking in posse's? Like these are my post. He's just tell easily then.

And then the way out is like, if I see that guy, and I think this is a fucking curb enthusiasm skit, right here. We're those, my postaccident. Well, I fell in .

love with free work this weekend.

I had much fun, just the zoom out so you can see.

Or there I am. Next there's me.

Look at how human, a lot of that.

a lot of s that is a show .

that me look at that huge dumper, wow increate.

And what's going up with those? Are those underwear who's good .

as that thing else?

That's my god. But I think it's just A T shirt.

I think is the t shirt you obvious to the big?

I'm still the one right back on. No.

he stopped the exact .

and I .

came right back.

VS was so fun, I to say, to shout out to those guys that so I think that's like the .

best new restaurant that is a really great place. Little a little oud.

I wish just one nower on.

We source to the fans and they .

just got crazy.

With us again on the all in podcast, the architect himself, crazy hair doesn't character if it's acts freeburg is committing suicide in the bottom of a pool. Apparently he just cannot take all the agent lation. And inside that's a living.

Was vegas .

exactly that? You are leaving vegas, uh, down one hundred fifty times h which you could have given to the santis like sexy. And how off of his wonderful weekend be after glow of vegas chamar polo hoppity.

We went to vegas to play cards. IT was a wonderful weekend. We had a great time. Everybody bonded.

A lot of lefts were had.

wonderful, wonderful, wonderful. I got into craps. I was never crapped guy, but I had.

I one of those great was j calling craps.

Oh my god. I had forty. I had a forty dial run. IT was incredible. There are about that game that is like super addicting to me when you just go on a forty die role. Ah I .

think craps really is one of the best gambling games ever created.

So exciting.

It's so so I just like .

hitting the hard ways. And then the feature bets.

the feature bets, the leaky bets, snow. But when they hit.

they're just so far and they hit.

they just all the dope gets release.

Loved that. The five hundred.

yeah, they only let me about five other, but I about thirty one .

to one on aces. They hit IT table, went crazy when that fifteen times were pushed. I speaking about pushing one hundred fifty times, uh, actually been getting a lot of press for being the architect. I saw some stories. Let me ask you question.

Total fake news.

all fake news. We know that everybody's emAiling me to try to get answers about you. I just see, see you on this. But the press has been trying to cover your old architecture purana scientists. President.

we taught that last week was to cover.

well, the press wants to know what? One hundred fifty times skis and they could look at up in the urban iconic. I think that would be easier.

Please let me ask you question about your giving strategy. Your your donation strategy. I noticed that you're donating to R, F, K. For president and you're donating toronto scentin. Are you donating to any other president for candidates and why you're betting both sides of the isle? This is confusing to me.

I know you want to one side to win over to explain the some previous pots.

I don't know the answer.

What's the simplest way to understand my political giving is just to watch the all in part, and I always end up describing who am supporting and why in which causes on the pod first. And then I back IT up. I put my money where my mouth is so that there's no mystery. There's no like backroom deals going on. It's just me running checks and support the things i've almost always really .

talked about on the pod OK. So what about this question of betting both sides? So you you're bedding for both teams in in in a festive ball series, like I know.

I don't think well, i've said that it's not competitive at this point. I've said that I would support ark junior for the democratic nomination, and I support the sentence on the republican side is no contradiction. I guess if they both made IT to the general, then I have a real dilema. But that face that they both underdogs in their lane OK IT be a high class problem to have, if you know, being a descent, tis Kennedy race instead of a biden trump.

repeat. I mean, I with you and you do play multiple hands at once. So I guess this does this does track is is not enough action for you to just play one hand.

I don't really see a contradiction there. Right now. There is a trump to santis race going on, and there is a biden Kennedy race going on.

Okay, now you hold a lot of fun readers to mother.

I are actually doing event for bobbi Kennedy soon in the next two weeks.

God.

let's go to well, I think it's important to just acknowledge in uncomfortable truth. And I come added from a person whose independent, i'm not registered democrator republican, but i've donated millions of dollars to the democrats in the last couple of cycles, but i'm concerned about joe biden's mental acuity.

And recently, when you look at how the White house behaves, the thing that i'm worried about is that there is almost like this sensation, that there is a shadow government that actually running the country, and we didn't detect any of those people. And this is nothing to say anything bad about Janet yellow and or job science or anybody else. But I think it's very important to acknowledge that, you know, other presidents have typically seen turn over in the highest ranks of government every two years or so, and there's been incredible consistency.

Now one could say, well, that's a good thing. The other side of IT is, well, that's what allows more vibrancy, government and to make sure that the president remains always in charge. And so I think it's very important in this moment where we have a president who's eighty two od years old, however, all is. We need to have a chance, american public, to we underwrite his mental acuity. And I think that's a judgment that we should all be allowed to make.

And I think the fairst way to do that is to feel the candidate who can be on the debate stage with him, and who can actually just go total toll on the critical issues, so that we has an american electorate, can decide for ourselves, where does this issue land? Is he mentally super sharp and ready to go for another four years? In which case a lot of folks will support them? Or is this a moment where we actually need to be very responsible, the future the country and not create some puppet government situation? I don't think it's funny that we have this weekend at bernies like me that goes around about him.

This is the present of the united states, is the most important person in the world. We can't be in a situation where, like that is a thirty percent probability that people joke about. So my support of Bobby Kennedy is in part because what i've heard from him, I find intriguing.

But the more important thing is somebody needs to be in the arena on the democratic side and put to test this mental security construction and get us to an answer, because otherwise I am worried that there's a bunch of folks that were not elected who are actually running the government. And i'm not sure how much bike actually knows or doesn't know, and I want to know the answer. That question I think .

everybody wants to answer. And fears like democrats would like a different candidate. That's what the polling is showing to be.

You put on the field here and there is the issue of he had the fewest number of news conferences we don't get to hear from him directly, which then fuels, I think, this perception freeze berg, that he is in cognitive decline. And perhaps the cognitive decline has increased. Republicans love to, and the right love to me know, make these images of him confuse on stage.

Who knows if he's actually confused or if those are being selectively edited? But IT certainly doesn't look good when you don't put the person out there to face the music and to take hard questions. I can't imagine he would do very well in a town hall or in an extended number of debates.

And so this is a thing that I find really scary, as if the guy can't make IT through the debates and he can't debate arf k and ten other people. And he came do news conference and we haven't heard directly from him. We had him like face some really hard questioning because he had he did one thing on M S N B C R C, nn and IT was so pathetically sicom antic and IT looks like I was highly added.

I kind of like the, the, the host who did IT out put up her name in a minute. I forgot her name right now SHE SHE SHE SHE. Pretty good. She's kind of funny, and she's kind of entitled. But he just through software to software, is there an age so kind of science that we should have a cognitive test for for office in your mind?

I don't have an opinion on that.

You don't on an age.

I mean, yeah like should .

we or should we have a cognitive test .

coordinate .

the president of the united states for office.

I think, is saying is that when you hold debates and you do town hall and you do ralles, then that is a cognitive test. You'll see you'll be able to take the cognitive measure by seeing how quick on their feet they are. But if bitten doesn't debate anybody, we won't see IT. And right now they're saying they want to bake Kennedy. So that tells you right there that they're .

afraid to something generate. This is the single most important person in the world in the single most important job. If IT breaks your brain in a moment like this to not be partisan and think, what would you do if I was the other side?

I just think you're like an unpatriotic robe and you're gonna trick on us. U. J, and i'm saying, anybody that seeks that map.

I want to see him debate.

The ukraine war is still going on because where is that close to being a director with russia, which could lead to a nuclear war? So you somebody .

to be contained, I worry about .

the relationship trained .

its estate. And as of yesterday, there seems to be some configure between kosovo and serbia that's kicking up all of a sudden were talking about a totally different european land world. And we have fiscal instability.

We're about to talk about IT today, but the home market could implode in the united states. The commercial state market has already imploded. There's all this complexity. And I think that the idea that you can't demand the most important person in the world to be on top of their game, I just think that that's outrageous. You expect the best play in the N, B, A to be elite.

right? Yes, of course, yes. They have to get good sleep. They have to have good fitness.

They're measuring every single dimension of an N, B, A player's life. They measure, they're sleep now. They're diet. They are shooting percentages, everything. And we're not do enough for the president states, by the way, the M S N B C host who got the one interview i've seen with biden in years was steph anie rule R U H L E from eleven hour.

They given the questions that how he gets the interview, have you seen that like buying has his q cards when he goes with the podium and literally has got the questions and he says you to call on, so they script the whole thing that is a city.

but trumped that as well. If you remember.

nobody .

gave .

the questions. You, I kani lady SHE had a huge binder and SHE would flip to the talk. My point is that's OK the same .

thing with the same where you talking about.

Did you pick the first five speakers? The first five questions were people you knew.

He said that he didn't stack the deck just and come and stop.

We didn't have a script.

You pick the first five figures.

My point that is that conference that's an introductions .

ory event that someone announcing.

talking, talking about a White house press conference and he goes up to the podium and secretly, when they zoom in on the camera, they're seeing that literally, he knows who to call on and what the questions going to be. So in other words, the media is CoOperating with the administration .

for access.

for access, and they're giving him the questions. I S.

let's move on. I think it's very .

important to just acknowledge .

you Normalize IT by comparing to completely different of.

I am saying that is .

something never trust that trump .

the question to get up. I am mentally fit.

I mean, a mentally .

unfit trump would be a proposition.

May may not like his personality, but no one is accusing him of being he share having dimension.

I think it's important to get on the record. I don't think we are saying that he is unfit to be president. I think at least what i'm saying is we have a right to underwrite the president every four years.

And on this dimension, this is the biggest issue that I see with biden, and i'm concerned in the lack of turnover in the White house. And I want to know that he is actually in charge day to day and making the decisions versus a shadow government. That's all I wants to know. And I want to see him live on the debate stage so that he can validate, yeah, that he is firmly on the controls. Hundred percent of americans want this.

The only people who don't won as people who are in power who you know a part of his .

group that's not one hundred percent doesn't really.

I know i'm talking about amErica as you would vote. They all want to see him debate. They I don't know anybody who doesn't want to see a viBrant debate.

So I think this is something the democratic party needs to, the democratic party needs to rethink their stand on this. Put him out there, put him on the field, upper, down, left, right. He has a debate, at least three, four debates in the primary, and earn a slot.

It'll do real damage to the democrats if bobbi Kennedy gets a tiny team and they ignore him. I'll give you a different example of Bobby being road block, which is when you go to five thirty eight 点 com and you look at， you know, nate does a great job of pulling up all of the polling that happens from all of the polling agencies. There are many instances where the democratic fields will need to include him when they ask him questions.

And so there is definitely a concerted effort here. And I think it's not that I don't want joe biden to win. I think he's he could be fantastic again, I voted for him and I think that if he's mentally sharp and his hands are on the court, as you think he sharp no, i'm saying, I don't know, I know.

I want to know for myself, what do you think the chances I I mean, I using a logic here.

I think that be pretty good. Actually a lot like if you look at buffet, he's ninety two, he sharpers attack mongers. Ninety six, he sharpers attack.

I think that if you live reasonably well and bitten gots some great things working from, he's he's been a tea total at his whole life. So all the things that would have caught up with you in your eighties, biden has awaited. So from a health perspective, he is the best chance of being on top of his game.

Can he be physically frail? I don't care about that. You know that happens to everybody. So I think it's important to disabuse ate those two.

And so IT is very easy to tell when you're standing on the the best stage, how you can sit on the debates. Ge, I don't care, but I want you to be able to explain what you think in a way that's cogent and coherent. And you walk away thinking, H, I feel safer with him, with his hands on .

the controls here sucks. What do you think? See what you think. The chances are his sharpers attack is not in .

cognitive decline, is not we know that a the question is whether he can serve at all.

Should people have to take the cognitive test?

You think that would be a good problem? Look, I think the dates.

the cognitive test, but little IT and stuff like that.

because he does like people are the voters are the cognitive test. O the problem is when the media is CoOperating with the candidate by not asking them tough questions, or even work sharing the questions with them to give voters a false impression of how strong they are, I mean, look, the media's job is to be fundamental and tagish with the people in power, not Operate with them.

Here is something super ing digging that happened this week. Jme diamond has hinted at running for office. Bill ackman made a case for him.

To run for president twenty twenty four. This is getting a lot of team of that people are talking about and C N, B C ah IT is trending on twitter on wednesday. P Morgan chase, you jie diamond made some comments about potentially running for office in the future.

Quote, I love my country, and maybe one day i'll serve my country in one capacity or another. He sixty seven years old. He didn't know that.

Bill ackman tweed, his support for diamond running as a damn against biden. Hagman put out a number of compelling points. Diamond is one of the world's most respected business leaders.

That's true, politely centuries, pro business, pro free enterprise, all true, supportive of well design, social programs and rational tax policies that can help the less force ate smart thought ful pragmatic, knows how to bring imposing parties together, highly respected by right, left and center. I think that's also true. Superbly managed J.

P. Morgan, through every crisis, quote, no bulls shit, straight talking, charissa tic leader with an enormous grasp of the world's issues and how to address them tomorrow i'll just ask you to you plainly, if you have three choices or four choices, trump, the santis biden and the ji jabe diamond stack ring. Those for us ranking.

Who do you got? Who do you vote for? those?

You are four traces, probably jammy diamond.

one OK .

the scientist too. okay. And trump in bit needs a bit of a time.

bit of a time. Garbage, garbage.

OK garbage, garbage. Don't o so it's A I mean .

two people that nobody wants to offer. IT seems a wants to run.

I personally believe that the era of sep generations and otg eri's should come to an end in terms of variability to run this country. I want that transition now. Jimmy is sixty seven, so but he's still much Younger than these two other guys. And again, and to go back two years as a lot, it's a lot of vitality, energy.

This matters.

and I think that he is a very competent, economic, rational actor. So IT will be interesting to see. I mean, look, the reality is, if I would be really honest with you, I think that what we should do is keep chipping away at the establishment in how they pick candidates. It's gonna a slow process.

But I think in ten or fifteen years, the real thing that we should all do is if there's enough citizen journalism, that we should really just change the constitution so that we can allow people that have been here for twenty five plus years, that have paid all their taxes, that have followed all the rules to run for president, and then we could actually just, we could vote you on in and just have them cleaned up the way, cleaning up everything else. But honestly, why, why not just do that? I mean, who who would not want them sex?

Let me ask you to stack rank. And then we will get to the change in the constitutional issue, which that is the hell. Mary, how would you rank those four?

I think that we have run out of topics to talk about. If bill acme's latest political brain for is a major topic of conversation part.

I think this is inspired. You guys put trumping office, the gp put trump in office. He's the outsider, is outsider lunatic. And you can even consider jamin there, and your nothing at that. And you put trumper office, you guys put trumper office and .

you going to do that again.

You mean you guys and that D. P.

A party? Here's the part about this conversation that sort of make sense. Two thirds of the country says that they are uninspired and in fact, fatigue by the idea of having a repeat of the same choice that four years ago, everybody wants a different choice.

So I get this like fantasy basketball drafting thing that we're trying to do here. Okay, the reason why I call IT the brain fart, and I looked bills a really smart guy. I'm not dragged him.

But in order to win the presence, cy, you have to get the nomination of a major party. And the problem with all this, like fancy drafting, is that you're trying to draft people who are an athena to the party that you're trying to get them nomination from. And trump was able to get the ominous to the republican party.

Jay die would have to get the ominous, the decrying party that's going to happen. And IT does remind me of bloomberg. Remember, bloomberg spent one hundred million .

dollars on his campaign. He made a lot of money.

and he made IT to the first question. In the first debate, remember what happened? IT is, miss warn said that this is a billionaire who talks about, he didn't fight.

He lay down. He rolled over SHE .

like ended him. He was one question, one debate. So my point is that you got got really get the nomination of major party. And actually I think neither party could nominate a banker right now.

And if you saw what happened around the whole banking crisis that I think still going on slow motion, I mean, the amount of animosity both towards the banks that went under and and the idea of potentially bAiling them out, and then also the animosity towards jp Morgan when they actually bought first republic. I mean, both parties, I have such a strong populist wing in them right now that I think you can never get, yep, the head of the number one bank in the U. S. To be their candidate.

You're completely wrong. I think in this case, respectfully, I mean, he could run as an independent as well. And although you know you you like to think or IT seems like you're proposing that things are going to be as they always were, trump shows a wild card and then people forget rosa. You know, he got twenty percent of the popular though he, he, he hit twenty million votes to bushes forty million, and clinton forty four. IT is .

not unprecedented and we are .

in a really struggling is .

an independent. There's no movement to draft the top banker in the country where you see this.

put a reality, start like trump in in. Okay, that was the world card of all wild cards.

He, he ran in one of the two major parties, and he had a nerve. I know that my point. So let me .

tell me about rosarno. Tell me about rosaries. And how did he hit twenty million votes? And isn't the world much different right now because of media, because of people going direct? We're talking I mean, trouble just proposed iron. If you're proposing elon.

you're like proposing posing a constitutional so that competent people sure who are not being in the country. Now if you live for twenty five years or thirty years, you've created hundreds of thousands of jobs and pay tens of billions of taxes. The idea that you are less fit than half these politicians to run for president is insane.

OK, that's a different question. Do you think we should change condition? Non national als to n for president.

not doing not nations is going well. You know, it's people that weren't necessarily born here, but if you your whole life, you're the majority of your life, you build value for amErica and helped IT win, all of a sudden you're less capable of being president. That's absolutely not true.

H, I didn't say I was. I'm describing what the constitution is.

Somebody was not when he was governor, california. There are people who wanted him to run for president. But look, it's too hard to change. The constitution is a very difficile process. So do I think that's gna happen now?

Would you be a favor of that? And under what circumstances do you think that it's about saying we change that he's in fat, that we should change in effect? So what do you .

like to a pressing issue for me? I'd rather have a baLanced during and i'd rather the president have a line, line in veto to control spending.

if you want to blow up the government and cut IT down to size and impose the ideas of liberalism, true liberalism, free speech, well, control borders, but good immigration. Etta, I feel like there are lots of people who could do that. And the only differences, they were accidentally not born here, except we've created more value in america. And most americans .

I were born reign, born national active. What are they were dum term, whatever.

dumb term. And using the ones .

in the constitution and the government is a story term for using accurate terms. I'll try to use less accurate in terms in the future. So back to j jammy diamond.

Nobody here is questioning whether he is a supreme compete executive, fully granted that he's done an amazing job taking J. P. Morgan. IT was really the biggest. He's made IT even bigger.

How is that possible, whether that's in the face of, say, we ve got to stop the bags from getting bigger? Gg, ah.

that's a good thing for the country. Ultimus, a different question. No one questions his competence, expertise, but again, I see no grounds well for him in either the democratic party or their political party or even as an independent because again, IT doesn't fit the popular mood of .

the country right now. So that's you are pragmatic, like path to Victory. Let me ask you about competence because me back a frame the question.

get a Better answer out of you. That's what I thought .

I was answering. You guys interpret my questions like interpret in terms of sex, interpret to the question pragmatically to getting into this. But let's ask sax the question.

And I ask you pragmatic phy and less sex, the question of competence. In terms of competence, I gave you like four people because he the most competent person to run the country right now. No, you think the sanity is more competent than him.

I think that of all the major candidates who actually have a realistic shot, scientist is the most supremely competent as an executive. He's run the state of florida. A he did IT during covert, which was a major crisis.

We all saw what happened. All of our friends were leaving california. California had locked down.

Schools were close. We had the worst learning loss of any state. Small passes were going under our dollers had to wear these stupid, pointless cloth .

mass to school.

and they finally reopen alone. So take for the sentience. Keep florida open. A great economy is number one in job creation, investment. People moving, he bounced the budget and that's why he was able to grow his majority from under one person when he first got elected to twenty points.

So you believe he would be more qualified than jammy diamond. He's been .

tested in a political realm. God, you you think that that is the Better chest?

I disagree. And I think probably the number .

one thing you have to do to be effective politically is we want to understand when the media, the mainstream media and all their fake experts are wrong. Because that's why the countries is such a mass. We keep listening to all these fake experts who are wrong about everything.

including covet detriment to a good jobs.

S presidents in your mind. He listened to the fake experts. He had fouche in there.

So you don't think trump to a good jobs .

president that he listen to felt too much. But okay.

because trumps an outsider and you seem to think he did a good job s president. A lot of republicans do. So that's my point.

He was an outside, you love putting words in .

my mouth and characterising I anyways .

that I never quite sad OK just ask you. And I think that trump did a number of good things in office. For example, he kept us out of foreign wars. And I think the economy was pretty good until covet.

But he had, no.

I would say they were like two bigger killer. He was, one was we had huge deficits and debt during trump. And the other was, once covent happened, he listened to foul chi and fouche was driving the train during comment and hold on, gave us the lockdowns. And then trump s never fired fouldrey.

And on trumps last day in office.

he no instead inside.

And just so everybody remembers .

june sixteen and twenty fifteen, then carson and businessman donal trump tied in fourth place with five percent, so things can change.

And now trump is swinging wildly at descendest, saying that descendest was worth then calmo on code.

That's the last thing I want to take a covered. We got bigger fish of.

I think it's been doing really well over last week because trump has been making all these wild attacks on and to be the responding. So now like they're really punching at each other, it's really interesting.

Quick here, the house voted over one. They lead to pass the debt ceiling agreement. Three fourteen to one seventeen in the hands of the senate could be passed by the time in listening to this.

Some republicans, the expanding, doing far enough. No shocker there. But speaker a carthy called IT, a first step, projected the bill would reduce budget deficits by one point five trillion over the next decade.

Some highlights nondefense spending flat in twenty and twenty four at seven hundred four billion only increases one percent in twenty twenty five and aims to, in the federal budget, growth to one percent for the next six years for since thirty billion. And unspent kova relief money that seems logical, fully funds medical care for veterans. That seems like a good idea, realities, twenty billion from the I R.

S. Over the next two years to put towards non defense programs. That's that crazy idea to hire eighty thousand or something R.

S. agents. Pauses on student repayments will now end in August. We ve talked about that on the show by in student on for years plan will be settled in the supreme court. Some stats on U.

S, dead put up two charter and they will get free birds position could is very passionate about this. U. S.

Annual surplus or deficits through end of year twenty twenty two. See those, uh, great years. I think those are the democratic come clinton years.

He did ran IT up. Well done clinton, U S. National that end of year twenty twenty two, my lord, uh, thirty two, getting close to thirty to troon.

U S. Annual federal spending up around when breaking six trillion a year and tax revenue by deficit. Here.

let me have you go to that, the red chart. This is our national debt. This is an upside down hockey stick. So this is what's concerning about IT, is we're going expansion.

al, on this thing. The problem with this, just to refrain IT once again for the hundred thousand time.

way to say way this red shirt isn't this freeburg losses in vegas this weekend? I think that's no that's our collective losses in big as as we did.

I think we did the math. This group was accounted for ten a ten bps of of vegas black jack revenue for the year. So good job, everyone.

Good job, people. Everybody in vegas is now completed their q three quarter targets early.

So the the problem obviously with mounting debt is the interest payments on the debt cause you to take out more debt. And there's a tipping point where IT becomes insurance table. And there are many people sounding the alarm that we may be entering that point that in order to fund their interest obligations on the debt, we need to take out more debt and then there's more increase yet and therefore, there's more debt, and that just keeps getting bigger and bigger.

And so this chart i'm sharing here is actually from the federal government's G O, the government accountability office, which act almost like an independent accounting and forecasting body, trying to provide some outlook on the fiscal condition of the federal government. And this is an analysis I think they put out a few weeks ago, showing that as of the fiscal year twenty two, eight percent, the overall federal budget was going towards interest spending. By fiscal you're twenty five, it'll be twenty six percent. And then that interest spending will need to grow to half of the budget. But if you go to the .

other so I want you see what you see the years because it's important to know what years they're talking about.

Twenty, twenty one, twenty ninety six is what they are showing.

The long window I get IT.

but let me show you the chart. Just pull the first chart. So this is our federal government's interest payments per year.

And so this is how much .

the government pays on interest for the debt. By the way, most of the debt is getting refinance now at the higher interest rates because a lot of his death was sitting in in zip era since two thousand and eight. But as the debt has to get refinanced and more debt is taken on to fund the interest pain obligations, the interest payment actually starts to to mount more significantly.

And that's what we've seen in the last two fiscal years in particular. Now when you take this chart and you overlay how much we spend on defense, so here's defense spending. We are, I think, out of this month or last month now spending more. The federal government is spending more on interest payments on the federal debt than they are on national defense. Whether we believe we are spending money on national defense in a smart way or an accountable way, or whether these are good strategy, gic priorities and good strategic decisions.

The fact remains that at some point here, our ability to actually fund the programs that we want to fund, whether their social security, medicare, defense, the major cost out place for the federal government, it's gonna get further hindered and continually more hindered by the fact that these interest payments are climbing so significantly. If you go to the third china, I think that kind of provides the final point, which is social security. And we're very quickly seeing interest payments count to the point of our social security spending rates.

And and when that happens, obviously, as you guys know, everyone and talks about that as being the golden program, the right and the left, the democrats, the republicans simply will not touch social secure from a policy perspective, from a getting elected perspective, but the economic and arithmetic reality running up against them, which is that the interest payments on the debt or starting to threaten our ability to fund social security and and and medicare, there's many more charts we could pull up to to highlight this. The republicans, in announcing the the death deal this week, made a lot of proclamations about IT being a win and showed how we able to reduce spending by two trillion dollars. I think the, the, the statement they made, the deal cuts two point one trillion dollars in spending over the six year life of the bill, and one and a half trillion dollars in SATA Mandate with savings over the next two years, two point one trillion dollars over six years.

Remember, we're talking about a seven million, seven trillion dollar per year budget that forty two trillion dollars over those six years were cutting two trillion of forty two. So it's a five percent impact to start. It's a start, but what leverage do they have now?

And I think that isn't that the census freeburg that they actually did decide to make cuts. And that feels to me, and we did particular that they would get this done, that felt me like this is some amount of progress, right? I mean, do you feel good about IT or indifferent freedoms?

G I I think you guys know I I I think that there's we have we have to tackle the the structural problem of revenue spending, interest rates. I those are like very um big numbers that are they're chAllenging each other, chipping away at the spending doesn't quite get us there. And you know IT doesn't seem like there's a clear path here.

Even you know the argument that R F K made when he came on our show, R F K junior mate when he came on our show, that cutting military spending would have an impact. I mean, you guys see military spending is already starting to get overtaken by the interest payment spending. So does that really move the needle? I think it's gonna an economic reality that all programs are going to need to be cut back in order to fund the dead obligations, or we're going to see massive .

inflation. And you I M like this was A A good step or a good signal that maybe the government is that our representatives are getting the message that they need to make some cuts at some point.

I don't think that there's any way to provide the necessary fiscal security for the federal government without by partisan unitary support around the objective, which is to get to a baLance budget and to reduce the overall debt and interest payment obligations. And if you can't start from that point, it's this push, pull over what programs get cut. But I want more money being spent. I want to have .

a pipe I supervised by this. I I thought I was a positive step. Tump, you have talked about refinancing the date, putting the hundred year trillion dollar, whatever we wind up doing, refined and think this on a long arc, fifty year hundred or arc, what does this debt ceiling reconciliation, wherever we're onna call IT, that they came to some sort of agreement here signal to you you predicted they would get through this pretty easily. So boring, nothing burger.

nothing of on. Would you, would you buy a hundred barn from the federal government .

if I was a foreign government?

yes. What interest would you need to get paid on that? To take that on probably .

one to two percent.

one to two percent for a hundred years.

yeah. So we would be downside protection. You to feel like this is a secure place to put some matt of money.

This is how any any country with a turbulent currency would make this decision. And you could actually get close to zero. I think that when we had serb, you probably could have charged a negative interest rate because you would have effectively been charging countries, third world developing countries, even first world countries.

I just want to a protective mechanism against their currency volatility. They would probably paid you just like today, you can get B O J det, that's negative building. So it's no longer negative, but it's still probably in the realm of one one and a half percent.

It's nothing. If you just do the math, it's nothing. And this is why don't understand why everybody just gets their underwear .

a bunch here OK non gender underpants .

put the red chart up there.

So nothing is nothing is is nothing to .

nothing is nothing.

It's it's a hockey take nothing means something.

I think you guys see here is an accelerating problem. Yeah revenue the dead is getting bigger and bigger at the same time that a foreign governments and investors in general don't want to fund our debt. Therefore, interest rates will rise.

our interest cost will keep.

That's not well if they are doing up because the first reason to the inflation. But at the same time, that's happening. Foreign governments are not as interested in having dollar reserves, and U.

S. Treasury ies said, who does?

Demonstrated by what you look at, the foreign reserves of these countries of these sovereign are much less in in all in U. S. Treasuries, foreign with china, all the books countries foreigner's are up.

These guys are banking us dollars like nobody's business.

I don't think so. I think been going down two thousand eight. I'll find your child .

maybe from two thousand and eight. I don't know from the great financial crisis of the absolute depth, but what i'm saying is that in general, the anchor currency for government in central bank has been will be end will likely be in the future, the united states dollar. And we get back to the circular argument, which is I don't think it's possible for politicians to cut expenses.

So I am just an advocate for cutting revenue because I do think it's the simplest way to force people because the next time they go through these machinations and all this theater around a dead ceiling, they'll just have less revenue to play with and it'll just become a harder and harder and harder problem. Meanwhile, I do think that you have to take the ball where lies and take these twenty four thirty trillion dollars and refinanced well out into the future and make a bet on U. S.

Exceptionalism and U. S. G. D. P and if you don't want to believe IT, don't fuck and be here, move to some other country where you think it's so much Better .

and go do with there if the market not there, what the survivors are not there in your wrong?

sure. I mean, you know, an asteroid could hit the earth in the next day. We could talk about all kinds of long to consequences.

But there is there. You have to be able to probably wait these things and then spend your time thinking about the things that are more probably tic. And be able to compartmentalise the anxiety of the last probably tic things.

So I think that could there be a scenario where there is no interest? sure. Is there one? no. Because you see every day the governments in the market doing actions and there is a robust demand for united states government debt. And until there isn't, this argument is specious. And all I would tell you is just keep trying put up more, try forty five year old bond and see how that feels like. Try a fifty years, even have to do one hundred if IT makes you too anxious, that's fine.

I just tell you at some point, if the market isn't there, the buyers are out there.

You but let us go through .

the analysis because I I know that you think it's is a zero chance, but if it's as low probability, do you agree that the severity is high, that the significance of that being the case?

I don't again, I am not going to give an I order a breath to a long tail five semma outcome IT is a waste of time OK because IT occupies, I don't tell you why I don't do IT IT occupies my mind share, which takes away from me figuring out how to make money and win on the field today. So I have a week in a twenty four hour day, okay, just to give you sense. But I sleep for a, you know, i'm eating for another one, or to all this bullshit.

I have four or five hours a day of useful thinking time. And I try to think of the belly of the probable. And I tried a compartmentalise, these dumb long tail signal events, because IT distracts me for making money in winning.

I actually try to think about long tail signal events that could make me money. This is in one of them. So I just don't spend time thinking about you. I could be totally wrong.

I could be totally wrong.

People stick to the investment strategy that works for you. I'd like to talk about the status of us. Treasury es. So if you look here, this is total foreign treasury holdings as percent of markable treasury security. So it's gone down from the mid fifties to the low thirties since two thousand and eight.

two thousand nine as a percentage. Foreign governments.

foreign governments don't want our treasury's as much as they used to, starting with china. They are diversifying into other currencies and gold. And there are a bunch of good reasons for that.

By the way, this comes from a blog which is really interesting. It's a crypto guy named Arthur hayes. And this is actually a pretty interesting peace called exit liquidity.

He's rights. Interesting pieces on the banking system in d dollar ation. He's got a little bit a do mercies with respect to the U. S dollar. Obviously, he's probe coin that his user sort of similar to ologies.

But ever I think one of the points he makes us really interesting is that if you're to zoom out thirty thousand feet and think about the regime that we had during, let's call the unipolar moment, where china and the united tes were strong trading partners, and we had discussion with them the way the global economy worked, is that china would sell goods to the united states. They would have huge trade surpluses, and then they would take those dollars, and they use some of them to buy raw materials like energy, that was called the petrol dollar. And then they would take other dollars.

They're surplus. And instead of repeat rating at home, they would have to then convert that money into RMB. And at home they didn't do that.

That actually would have increased about their currency, thereby making their exports less attractive. This is why they are accused of currency manipulation. They took their surplus dollars and bought us assets, mainly us treasury's.

So we had this trading relations with china. I think everyone understands the physical world side of that trading relationships where you had U. S.

Manufacturing jobs got to exports to china, they basically made everything, a lot of cheap goods came into the us. That a trade surplus. What I think people don't understand is that a huge part of that trade surplus was used to finance U.

S. Deficits and debt. And so you had this like causey relationship between us elites, us politicians and china, where they got to rack up these huge deficits.

The government got to spend a lot of money, and china would funded very cheaply. But now that's all ended. That stopped because we're macie started a couple from china.

So china doesn't want to do its business and dollars if they don't have to. Obviously, for the products they said of the U. S, they'll take dollars, but they are ready trying to do as many transactions as they can buying oil, for example, or energy in RMB. Hi.

I don't want to dispute this chart because this chart is true, but it's a small part of healthy entire puzzle works. And so this is a bit coin maximum st, who Cherry picks a few data points to try to make a point. But if you look at the I M F data and I put at you in the group chat, you can't just look at U S.

Treasury security. You have to look at actual absolute dollar reserves. And when you look at that over time, IT hasn't fluctuated that much.

And so for all the dupes that don't understand how the ship works, it's not just security, it's actually also money. And the actual amount of U. S.

Dollar money hasn't changed that much to eighty. And ty 8。 I just find this argument again, one of long sigma arguments that are anxiety riddled. And I just don't want to waste my time thinking about IT because it'll distract me from winning on the field today.

You're going to be able to block things out if you want to be a capable allocate or agree. But in interesting discussion on the less.

I don't think these things are just noise. I think you're seeing a trend. I mean, look how many headlines are about the bricks countries going together and starting to transact in currencies other than dollars. Yeah you know what?

Those are very Cherry picked as well. And you said before, you don't trust the press so you trust the press on these headlines of I don't think that that's .

actually I don't think anyone's disputing the fact that china and sadi arabia and china and brazil are doing energy transactions in R N B.

If this is very tiny, they're doing all putting all their money venture capital in the private equity in the rest real estate in the west, the middle east. That's where that's where their first in energy.

Different issue. Look, no one is disputing the fact that china and the brick countries more generally are trying to create a trading block that is not dependent on the U. S. dollar. This is saver.

I think I think they're trying to just let the U. S. No, O, K, we have other options here and think, is china just trying to it's china on their heels, trying to make deals with .

other china pursuing their self interest, which is not be dependent on a dollar that's been web ized controlled by the U. S. politics.

You can be sure that sounded. U. A. And the entire voting block in the middle east are shipping their money west, northeast.

I think you have a very accurate assessment of what china wants, but that doesn't mean it's gonna en. And I think you have to make a bet. What do you think it's gonna en or not that to happen? And I think reason I and I ve said this before, as china is in a demographic time bomb and that will dominate everything else, that is a country that is imploding .

and their anti anti italy .

m and are injured tell you practiced aking is graphically including they do not have enough people. The country will be held by the death rate and the lack of birth rate by twenty three hundred. okay.

So in another seventy eight years, that is a problem that is going away and that is just mathematical. And if you just you just have to take a deep breath, look at the data and just extrapolate, and you see this is not a problem. China is not a problem. China has real .

problem is no question about IT. They've got demographic problems. They have got problems in the banking system. They real state bubble state government are questions about whether the leadership now is turning away from the capitals and that gotto m to this point. So there's no question that china has problems, but you want to talk about friends. There is a major trend in the world right now where the again, the bricks countries, brazil, russia, india, china, south ha, you can put out arabia ia in that bucket and A A lot of other countries, they are looking to diversify off of the dollar. I'm not saying that the dollar is gone to stop in the word reserve currency because I agree you that there's no ready replacement at the hand, but they are trying to do as many transactions they can off of the dollar, and they do not want to hold treasuries like they did ten or fifteen years ago.

I try here. I know transactions off.

That's a very loaded statement.

I don't think that .

no statements you what you .

talking about this like major, they do I they talked about yeah.

I just see on that not just a couple of headlines because I .

think everybody wants to really .

talking brazil thing happened, I think .

was a .

David no.

i'm saying the saudi arabia, a china thing did not happen.

They're going to talk many transactions as possible of the dollar. I don't think that trying to do many transactions off the dollar. I don't I have never seen .

any actual data up. No course they want to get off the dollar. Of course they want to get off the dollar. They can.

No, I think Jason saying you're right what they want to do, but what they are .

doing in the I don't think they're trying to send IT.

I don't think that's good thing. You're right that sabia is investing in the U. S.

there. I'd say highly diversified. That's a little different then what china is doing.

yes, we we are in agreement. China wants to get people off the U. S. dollar. China's didn't decline. China's cope. The issues we all agree on that the middle east has a lot of cash. I think if they are going to decide what to do with IT bell appears china to have a solid relationship to ship poole there.

But I think our customers.

customers are .

in china. How much you noticed?

I think the regnant chinese just the midday, is becoming western ized and being accepted in the west and moving towards an investor in the west and technology.

That's actually the time that the chinese just negotiate a approach mob between inside a arabia and an did you notice that.

that i'm just started about where they putting their ship? These things are all connected.

Where are they putting their chips?

I think what you've explained and I think we're an agreement. They'll sell their oil to china. Then what do they do with the bag? They take that same bag and they want to put IT toward.

And it's even worse again. The thing is, even if you settle a trade in the U. N.

I think you guys keep forgetting the key thing, which is that you want a peg to the U. S. dollar.

So IT is a proxy dollar. So if you really want to decouple, you first have to let this currency free float. They have no desire to let them do that, especially in the moment where they're economically imploding internally.

So again, you go back to the circling the argument or everything goes back to the dollar. So yes, they're saber rattling sex. I acknowledge what you're saying.

I think you're totally right that they would love a free floating currency, chinese, chinese. And they want a free floating currency to not be packed to the dollar. But right now they have .

kept pack to the dollar. Even is google, is you on pack to USD? And IT says the chinese un.

Is not peg to the U. S. dollis. Pet from ninety four to two thousand five, but in two thousand five, china makes currency of floating .

exchange currency. IT is not a floating currency.

yeah. And then do you trust .

that is highly IP later? But I don't think it's pegged.

It's not a floating currency. IT is not a free floating currency. China controls the exchange rate between themselves and the us.

dollar. Let's move on. Think we've covered red. This be actually one thing that .

might be interesting declaring that things like the moves that china is making with brazil and sabia, you're just declaring that to be fake news.

Nobody saying fake news were saying it's happening, but it's probably minor. And this probably .

more described to say what your basis are .

believing that because we have no evidence to prove that is occurring. We just have a couple of headwinds and some small what I mean, where is IT? I mean, all we're seeing is the the the money in sati abia is they're selling oil to china, correct? They're doing deals there. They're taking that money and then they want to invested .

in the west talking about .

the other thing to keep in mind is that the sadi real was peg as well to the U. S. dollar.

And that's been there since, I think, the mid eighties. So china's is a very opake manipulated currency market where they keep the dollar you want spread quite fixed. On the other side, sauty has kept the same act three point seven five to the dollar since the mediates.

So again, IT, all this goes back to the U. S. Dollars, all proxies for the dollars. So there are some symbolic value, I suppose, in trading a new on. But everything goes back to the dollar because that's what is measured in.

So it's not symbolic. What's happening is deeply geopolitical. You've got a couple of things going on.

One is that the us. Is now instituted sanctions on over forty countries. Moreover, the whole world saw that. In the case of russia, we froze their foregone reserves and basically seize the property of their oligarch.

So if you're an oligarch in the middle ast, do you think you want to keep all of your money and all your reserves in dollars? You understand that the dollars were weapon zed. And as a political instrument in the united states, this is the fact.

So you're going to look to diversify. You're going to to put your money and gold. You're going to look to put your money in other currencies.

Is there, like I said, a currency in hand that's ready to be replacement for the U. S. Dollar or no, and I can be the u on. They don't have an open.

Where would you diversify if you were the cio? Where would you diversify?

Well, what I would do if I were the sector, the treasury of china, is, I would say that, okay, for the exports of the U. S. Going to keep getting dollars, and we'll do something with those dollars, but for everybody else, we're going to try to do as many transactions that aren't be as possible.

But what about the cellars of oil to china? What would they do?

And five and b.

so you would tell .

them that we're talking about.

you tell them to hold. Remember over U S. And europe, china is seeking .

to pay .

study sale. You you don't understand that. The would you S C I O of sauty or U A E. Would you want to keep remember, would you want to keep your OS or U S.

dollars? Where would you want to keep your money? And the question is, if they sell that, would they want to keep IT in? Remind me.

I don't think they want to keep the one honestly taking to your question, I want to put in in gold that put I would put in, in world OK. Here's what china is proposing OK. They are saying to the grab in brazil, we're going to pay you for your oil in RMB.

And then you were onna, take the RMB and you can buy our products. Yes, because again, we make everything where the factory of the world. And if you still have a surplus after that, you could settle that surplus in gold, because beijing is a very liquid .

gold exchange spend. The other cards, two data points on .

the sucks that I just read, it's in his parents article that I included name, may just want to linked to the in the show notes, which I thought was pretty good swift, which is sort of like the international payments backbones. The share of you on transactions briefly rose above three percent in twenty twenty two. That was the peak and it's now off twenty six percent, down to about two point two percent.

So actually the share of you won transaction has actually been drinking in the last year. And then the second is that what this article states, which is interesting, is that all the belt road loans that china gave into all these developing countries in africa, the africans were like, we don't want that, you want. And so they just dollar swap.

And so now the B, R, I loans are all service in U. S. Dollars as well. So all the .

trillions of dollars china spent.

I'm just saying that again, i'm not all i'm saying is I just like to look, keep things simple. I think the U. S. Dollars here for a while, I think that that suck.

I would love to have no deficits, but I also think these numbers are roughly like we're playing plus reminds on the margin to three hundred basis points. We talked about that last week. And so I want to keep my brain open to the simple, obvious things like, you know, selling that's what it's come .

to his cpg for your trimmed, you like it's a down P G.

I know. Yeah.

that's what focus to the dr.

do. Do I think I, I dr. do.

I'm just doctor reality at this. I to be, I don't know. Like there is a deal. You know, china had a big visit with brazil in march. We talked about a briefly I shared a couple of these articles that covered the transactions.

They sign ten billion dollars of trade agreements and CoOperative agreements, all of which you are meant to settle in. You on brazil's kind of made the statement they're going to start to settle in local currency. And you know they are doing this multi lateral trade program globally with partners where they're going to trade and transact in, in local currencies.

They're not set to the dollar. They're not stick to the dollar. And I think that just part of a general movement, I don't think it's about, hey, we got to get off the dollar as soon as possible.

But I think it's about we could diversify and there are other stable economies around the world they might be having, you know, demographic issues are very psychotic ic issues. But gosh, man, don't we all europe, china, the U. S, everyone's got dead problems than a graphic problems over leverage problems, growth problems in fundamentally, I don't think that there is as safe behaving as there has been historically.

And as a result, having a lot of these governments and a lot of the business leaders in these countries are very much open to doing transactions in multiple currencies. And that's the beginning of the end. It's the beginning of a set of transactions that isn't about, hey, were all getting against.

The dollar is over. Let's crush the dollar. It's like we're just going .

to do trades .

in other currencies. No, alright. So this is the end of the dominance is at the end of the dominance and china employees in that same time period. So I forgive me, I still believe american exception, american exceptional.

There's another article from bloomberg brick. This is from a April .

twenty four skies draws membership .

from one thousand nine hundred. Listen, J, K, L, M, fine. If you want to say this is fake news, go for IT. Are you saying funny?

Believe it's fake? No, I need information about .

the world when they write an article about me that's completely made up. I'm going to call IT fake news. Why are you treating like every press article is like the same?

That makes no sense, by the way, does make sense for the bricks to expand, right? X, because it's like if nato was purely an economic organza, that's probably what breaks evolves into overtime. And IT makes a ton of sense.

They're creating a competing china.

setting up an alternative to the I M. F. They ve got this alternative to the I M F that they've setting up. That's not dollar denominated. And we've got seven nations in this thing.

Now it's, you know and by the way, Jason, when I see the beginning of the F, I don't mean the end of the world at the end of the U. S. The us.

Will continue to be the innovation up of the world. The U. S.

Will continue to have freedom and civil rights that no, that no other country can. The U. S. Is an incredible place to live, Better than anywhere else on earth. But the economic status of the U. S, given how we have spent money and how we continue to Operate our federal government with this deficit and that spiral problem, means that other people have to be protective of their currencies and their assets in a way that spotless IT doesn't necessarily mean it's all over and everything, but the dominance you said beginning has had economically.

you can only see this in all the trade barriers and terrorists that are going up, the decoupling that's going on. Look, the united states set up A A system of global free trade based in thousand and forty five, and we had a pie polo, a world with, we have the soviet and in america. But the serbia specially opted out because they were common as, say, their own system.

But IT wasn't a compelling polar world economy then we had the unipolar world. So basically, for you know, over half a century, we had this completely open system where there were no trade blocks in the world. Now we are seeing the rise of trade locks with multiple aries. Yes.

the U. S.

Is pursuing contraction policy because on the one hand, but on the years of contradiction, on the one hand, we run these massive deficits and deaths. So we are a deter nation who needs to make its debt attractive to to dead holders? Or are interest rates when to keep going up? okay.

So that's on the one hand. On the other hand, we are doing things like weapon zing the dollar and weaponized swift and imposing sanctions and engaging in geopolitical fights that are highly and tagish to the nations that are r would be holders for our debt. So one of those two things has got a give.

Either we reduce our debt and our deficits and the need. Remember, we're not this is not a stable situation. We continue to issue what is IT between one and two trillion and a year new government debt. So we have to constant find more and more money out in the world to support our debt, at the same time that we're responding zing the dollar in the financial system so that these sources of global capital don't want to participate.

And I agree with sex. This is why I think the disappointment to me is that there isn't by partisan recognition of this being as severe as a war IT is the sort of thing that the government that both parties need to get behind and say, let's figure out a path to solving this problem. This is the objective.

We've got ta get our fiscal affairs in order. And then all the other stuff, the social stuff, the policy stuff we can fight about, we can argue about later, but we have to put some gas in the tech. We have to be able to drive where we want to go.

and we can drive right now. Here's what i'll say to you, freeze berg, since you said the beginning of the end, now maybe it's a 4 choice of words。 It's not the end.

You said the dollar prominence in global trade.

Okay, I disagree with you. I think dollar dominance will continue for some time.

Check out, are you disputing that the world is becoming more multipolar? Do you think we're still living in unipolar ity?

no. And nor do we need to live in new polarity for amErica to still be the champions. We still aren't winning, had a pace that nobody else is space energy, cars, ai.

We're probably going to win ships and we're going to probably win material science and batteries. And we're obviously to win bio. We're winning in every one of these categories were the clear winner thing.

We're not the clear winner in this factories and mass producing shocky stuff that sold the amazon. China's completely exploded and the middle st. Is taking their last twenty or thirty years of capital.

And they're investing IT in the west, in space energy, cars, A I chips, basic materials, batteries, all the stuff that's happening here on our shores. We are in the most winning position we've probably ever been in as a country. We took a bad beat.

We spend too much money. We got a disfunctional government. We got culture wars. We ve got a lot of best stuff directing us. But the truth is, when you look at breast tax, when you look at innovation, we're winning on almost every dimension.

We're just a little caught up in the fog of culture wars and you know thinking that were going to be dominant and perfect in terms of our budget. We do have to fix our budget. We all agree on that, but we are winning.

And china is currently stalled out. And it's because of freedom. It's because we support entrepreneurs s because of the basic human freedoms we have. Youtube guys are doctor .

doom is so stupid. I'm hard enough. I'm done of this. Just strike my show out of this.

Epic is nothing else .

you want to talk about.

Sick of being characterized.

a doctor. Dm, J, L is fucking stupid. We want to have a real conversation about, like, real flooding matters and said, instead of you are going, I said, i'm not fucking extreme.

I'm not i'm trying to have like an actual discipline conversation about where things are going. It's not luck and White. It's not about oh my god, the U.

S. Is going to win and everyone else going to lose. Its not a wind lose situation. We cannot afford to continue to spend the way we're spending with our federal government.

That is I agree with. We have decided winning on all these other .

so why are we it's not the conversation why the federal government is different from U S. innovation. There's a difference, the federal government, where voters where voters elect to tax and spend and voters elect people to create a system that can legally go and take assets and spend assets and borrows money.

And we've done an extent now that is becoming almost a runaway train. IT is a problem. We saw the negative red chart, that sex that you pull up several times, that has nothing to do with U.

S. Dominance and flocking electronics and chips and biotech and all the other sort of stuff. We have a problem with how we spend money at the federal level. I go agree that the I believe that the dominance .

that we have in entrepreneurship and everyone of these categories, what will pull at this.

the free enterprise system is a wonderful system that produces A A lot of goods. Spirity for america. Okay, that's great. I agree with that, and IT remains me seen if china can sustain its markable economic growth has had over the last few decades. So that remains to be seen.

However, the united is behaving like a late stage empire, and that is separate from the system that got us here. We have unsustainable fiscal deficits. We spend way too much money that we don't have.

We have a uncontrolled southern border. Our cities are in decline. We've got hundreds of thousands of people living on the streets.

Have you seen that? We look like a third world counties. We, we all, we are meddling in countries all over the world in aging and wars, or proxy wars.

We are behaving like a late stage emp ire. So jackal is true that the city has a wonderful system, and that's what god is here to IT got us to unipolar ity. We are the world's only superpower, but now we're in a world in which other countries are rising to.

It's more multipolar, agreed. And whether we continue our dominance will depend on whether we make the right decisions right now. And right now we are not making the right decisions, adding two trillions to the debt in peace time a year makes no sense. Yeah, your little and it's it's like Willy coyote going off the Cliff and pretending like if you just doesn't look down, there's nothing to worry about.

I have said from the binning we need to get spending under control, but I am also incredibly enthusiastic about how we're performing in innovation and capitalism right now. IT is off the charts, how well this country is doing on those dimensions. Tomato, you have any thoughts while we wrap up the same now.

I think we ended up conflicting a bunch of issues into one. I'll just say what i've said before, which is that the united states, kind of the simplest safe is bad and that these decisions are made on a relative basis. China, unfortunately for them, have has a huge demography problem that will diminish them economically.

And you're already starting to see IT, but it's gonna really exacerbated in the next ten or fifteen years. That's just the mathematical reality for a country that has literally zero immigration and no solution. Europe is not in a very great situation, and the only place is really faring on all cylinders as india.

But he has a long way to go to build the infrastructure that can release scale and make IT as predictable as united states. Could I do IT, I think so, but it's onna take a long time, but you know fifty, sixty, one hundred years of investment. So I don't know.

I just kind of like try to simplify for myself. I think the U. S. Will be fine. I think the dollar will be fine.

I don't think it's right to spend this much, but I think that politicians are incapable of cutting expenses. And so I would like to cut their revenues. 那 这。

It's a great discussion. We were I don't think you respect I don't you understand what the audience actually wants to hear. This is actually the core of the of the debate that we just.

well, just do a free test you, which is just to play his clip in his words.

And then that's here. I think that the saudi, china trade, if this happens and is sold in one, is the beginning of, I think, the end of the assumption that the U. S.

Dollars of global reserve. But that's what isn't that wish your production that you said in the beginning of the end, you said at twice now. So if you don't believe it's the begin in the end.

it's of the U. S. Dollar as a global reserve.

You believe that, that is the U. S. Will not be the global reserve. You've said IT twice. Yes, and I disagree.

I think that will be we remain the global reserve for our lifetime on the fundamental difference. Let's move on. Yes, i'm redecked to bring up the cultures, but these uh have become prominent.

So me we have a met a discussion about these. There are three things going on when we touched on the book banning, i'm using their quotes there, and there's been a lot of feeble that's come in since then. Just to follow up briefly on IT books are not exactly being banned.

It's a much more granular nuance issue. There was a bill fourteen sixty seven that happened ah that on descent entice did sign they said that parents reasonably should get to see what's being put into classrooms. And as you might suspect, this is being done a very local level when you put all that control at the local level, you will have different constituent band books that maybe shouldn't be.

Some of them were obvious ones that were two graphic that I think most parents would agree ation be in a school library. Other ones were horror books or Young adult books. You can look at all this stuff, just search for pen band books report in pan amErica and if you there are instances of books that shouldn't banned being banned and instances of books that we all agree on. But IT is not exactly books banning, its letting each of the school districts make their own decisions and they're not going to make perfect decisions when you put them out the edges.

So just to make that super clear, I think you're right to focus on the terminology here because this is a question of what is put in the school library that's IT. So that's on a ban, right? A ban would be if you can purchase the book for yourself, for your kids, any parent can buy any book they want. Florida, we do have an issue, I think, with uh, the curriculum where really important classic books are being removed from the curriculum for political reasons. Maybe in california, books like to kill a mockingbird .

or hacked food.

They are being removed because they are being using, being racist, even though the whole point of those books is to, I think, all IT out, call IT out and teach kids about racism. So there's a lot of stupid things happening from the left in terms of removing books from the currit lump, which I think that much make your deal, than removing books from the school library.

There's also things happening with, like, you know, inflaming James bond books being rewritten like postum ously because sexism or roll dollars ooks are being positive, sly edited. So like books are literally being rewritten in a way that their authors never intended that is positively or well in. That really is really bright.

That's really wrong.

Now on this thing, I mean, look, this is, this is getting to the level now of being a hoax. One of the stories going around is that there was this book of poetry, this totally an accused book of poetry, that was being banned in florida. And I want you to find out, yeah, so I want you to find out the truth of IT.

Well, as IT turns out, like he said, Jacob, this is in mind. We, a school district, a decision was made. This is not by distances, is made at the level of individual schools, OK.

which are voted on and their parents on the school boards. So it's gonna follow the demographics and whatever that local community.

right? So basically what happened is this, this book of potry is literally moved from the elementary school library to the middle school library. That's what happened.

But all of a sudden this was fun on social media and by the mainstream media. If the santo had banned the spoke of poetry, to the point where, remind me, day school district had to put out a tweet correcting this. So never banner removed. It's just moved from one library to another.

I think this is a super interesting point, David, where you and I an agreement, you and I both, uh, for freedom of speech, big advocates of that, and then there our decisions. And you could recently make this decision, hey, let the parents decide. great.

When you let the parents decide, you have to take into account that these schoolyards could be hijack by different groups of people, or they could be very small monocultures of, you know, little towns or cities. Here's the list. By the way, if anybody wants to look at this, you could actually look at the very granular st.

Pan amErica keeps an index of all these. I put the the thing in the chat here in your severe and IT. Left, right, everybody in between.

Some places are banning all the L, G, B, T, Q book. Some are banning the critical books or books by people of color. Other ones are banning, you know, that James by novels successor.

So it's it's a free for all of parents executing their rights at a very local level. And you know I guess if you want parents to have to say in their schools, it's going to be slightly imperfect and variable, but it's not like some censorship going on. There is censorship going on.

I guess in some ways, the political question is, do you allow government bureaucrats to dictate to parents to what their kids are gone to see or have access to? And I don't think that's viable. I mean, look, parents could take their kids out of the school and homeschool if they wanted. Yes, so at the end of the day, so they have that right. So why would you deny parents the right to determine what's in the school library?

And IT does seem like all of this .

goes by way of these books that have been removed .

are actually question of flies will probably get removed, somebody being label .

fat pig.

I just like there are some great books that we're written in an age where you just say things in a certain way that aren't meant to be offensive. But these books are very powerful. And I don't know about you guys, but I had a bunch of books that I read when I was Younger that had a huge impact on me.

And then the locking bird, that this is all important books that I read as part of the curriculum. But all we're talking about IT, I think, is this even this very minor issue of what's in the library. Obviously, the parents who gets aside and some of the things that have been removing the library are pretty out there. Like for example, there was one book that was educating kids on, like, how do I get a grinder date, which the night is able to do, right? Like grandis for eighteen and up.

There are other topics that are like suicide and harm and other ones. When do you introduce that to? Is that something that third great? Or you know, as a suicide discussion once had that reasoning occur?

This is a crazy question, but i'll ask you guys, I would rather load the flies, be removed from a library and edited because in at least there is a different place where you can get original book. sure. The I D intervention.

A book is so insane, it's so mind control. Yeah, it's really bad. That idea is very, very bad because you're reading something, thinking that this is what the author intended and all of us had been manipulated by some bhanu false expert under some guys that you had no decision making in. That's really bad.

What's really, I think, import of this discussion is what's how the press frame something, how politicians frame them and then how they're actually executed on the ground can be very different. So this has become a rosha test for what cause you back. And when you actually look at to the list, you'll see people in california, you people in colorado, ning could not quite banning or not including certain books in libraries.

Its experience having agal debates about when do you introduce certain topics to your kids that your job is apparent, what happens in the libraries is going to be variable. Alright, in video is going for visual content. Gration, they invaded their G, P, U, C, P, U, super chip called Grace hopper after the navy admin, obviously, in video, Grace G, P U is seventy two ARM new version. V, T, U, C, P, U course, whatever that means, U, C, P, U can deliver up to three hundred seventy square on a spec rate, twenty seventeen in base, whenever that means. I'm sorry, I not familiar with all the .

taking and I I have .

keep up in we're talking about the Angel inside pentium chips. Yes, I I didn't keep up with chips. I am sorry to keep up the check market picture.

Yeah, yeah. no. I I mean, when we got pass cake that I stopped, I think .

what's really interesting here is this is a really important moment. We're like that design, that Grace hopper design, which is basically a massive system on ship, is an entire rig. It's a GPU and CPU in memory in interconnects.

This is like them going for the jugular. This is what's crazy in a moment like this. Like that is basically them trying to create an absolute monopoly. Because if you have these rigs and these rugs are the most capable for learning, and you have there s decay guta, which is becoming the defect of software layer now that you use to write to their age one hundred years, or Grace hopper when it's available, and the a one hundreds, that could create a level of lock in that I think people should be thinking about.

So if you are the hyper scheller like amazon and google and microsoft, what is your reaction to this? If your facebook, what is your reaction to this? And I think that's fairly important because if these guys continue to innovate the scale, you're not to have any alternatives.

And IT comes IT goes back to like what intel look like back in the day, which is an absolute trade up an open except the differences that even when you wrote something to intel C P U, you could actually run on A A M D processor and IT would work with no changes, but that's not necessarily the same. So you go from an eight, one hundred to something else in FPGA or some other silicon, you have to translate the model. And so it's very important to understand that there's no extensively here.

So like if invidia continues to drive this quickly and. And continues to execute like this. I say one and done one company monopoly, N A I, at the hardware layer. And I think that, that people are probably thinking about how to blunt that competitive outcome. But that's what I took away from that, from that announcement from them, which is like they are ready to go for the jug liar here in what looks like the most important market that's EMS. Like what is .

about the valuation chart trading at two hundred times or fifty times the what the simple .

thing about Price equity ratio is if you take the Price equity ratio, you inverted that's your implied year and you inverted that's your yield, right? And so NVIDIA is yielding at these Prices. I think its summer like two to two and a half percent, which is less than and it's almost half of a typical two year bond.

And so when you have a yield that that slow, you have to see IT just grow absolutely massively. But there is this principal and capitalism which is in order to grow like that, you you're generating so much profit that competitors look at IT and say, hold on, you don't deserve that much profit. I'm going to takes some of that.

You are profits my opportunity. You are margins my opportunity.

I think that your margin is my opportunity is exactly what happens. So I think what i'm waiting for freeport is I in the next two quarters of A M, D, facebook, google, microsoft, amazon don't announce something substantive. There's a very good chance that in video runs away with this.

And I think that that's a very problematic. But in that case, that Price is cheap. My bet, though, as is a different version of your pepper, we get to the same outcome is that I don't think that, that's gonna en because it's just too important.

And so I think that everybody other than in video wants vender diversity, right? You don't want to get locked into one peron's and in video sharell ders. So my bed is in the extra quarters, you start to see some real action so that folks started to have to baLance their forecasts where it's not just one hundred percent in video, but it's in video plus pass pass.

And that's sort of what I would bet because IT just seems like logical and right because I I otherwise I would I would be pretty direct of these hyper scales to just through their hands in the arms, just give the whole market to them and I will be deleted of amt. The other thing that's happening is an m know em is is a great memory solution, but they really don't have a deterministic key trip. And I think that lisa suit needs to get needs to act decisively here and build something, announce something, buy something. But he needs to be really .

aggressive here. If you look at the language models, a lot of them are taking less and less C P U, G P U. To actually build them. Uh, so this has been like a bit of a race or competition. On hugging face, I shot the leader board and another episode, maybe two episodes ago, but i've been talking to some of the people who are doing these language models to month and they said there's massive efficiency.

And so yeah and by the way, the other thing the free mentions jackal is also happening, which is like the feber you talk about, the adamites ation of these models is happening, I think, even faster than when you first brought that up.

yeah. So what took two to three million dollars last year is now taking two hundred thousand dollars just to software improvements and code improvements cry. And now they're thinking a number of the other thing people are coming to us because of so much with termly cino that people are using because of the lucina's are making narrow models that are deeper illegal or just you know stack overflow, just core or just a vertical and core.

They take less GPU, but they get Better results because you've constrained the data set and that's resulting in, you know, Better outcome. So I think this could also be where maybe people don't need as much G, P, U. Or C, P U.

At the same time. So many people going after IT. So that could flip where the demand could actually decrease because of software efficiencies or hitting some benchmark that's reasonable enough. What do you think freebody look?

I think its performance improves as cost declines. Like any economic model, there's a pretty nona lenie relationship with demand, so will find new ways to apply this technology. I think the demands only gonna .

on clear everything is happening. People are starting to build like mosaic ml. They're building cloud independent model, so you can take the same model, build on your own propriety, tary personal cloud, not educate chat G, P, for or not educate bard, but do with your own model, and then .

you can move IT from. And fine, you seems to like get to the point that we can run these things on small machines cheaply, quickly and IT just it'll change me, it'll change the applications.

You're think run inference yeah not one thing .

run in front. That's right.

No, no, this is not good. Band just had a big fall on stage at the U. S. Air force academy graduation.

Oh, no, I think of okay. But wow, it's not like he fell off the stage.

Just h doesn't doesn't look good.

but he could have break something. Well.

hope is OK. How is OK?

Yes, I know we just had to talk talk about IT. yeah.

I think like physical, like these kinds of physical things are are Normal that I think people need to be much more pathetic about of stuff.

I think he was riding a bike over the summer last year. I member.

and he look great. yeah. Was in a world. So I don't care about that. All I care about is a mental guity.

Yeah and by the way.

I I want him to be well enough to run because i'm scared of some of the other democratic candidate they might put up no, like I know when I get a president newsome or a president heroes, I mean, I don't think bind is very good, but I think he's Better than Harris newsome.

Biden drops out. Whose only candidate in your mind? T R F K.

really, I would prefer arf k to biden. But I think what will happen if by drops out is will will get a flood of establishment democrat kinneys in the race new maybe jb print kr Harris. For sure. There's a lot of differences .

between the left and the right, but the one similarity is that there's a large amount of voters in both of those blocks who don't fundamentally like these establishment candidates. And I think that that sentiment is exactly the same. You can have a pro trump wave on the right, just like you could have a pro R F K wave on the left. And they are solidified by the same idea, which is I think you're going to see more, more outsiders have a chance through the nomination process to get in.

I think the dog party will stop IT. I mean, they should body standards, remember that where I was standards against the hello clinton, and they they ship them, they rig the primary against them, where I want to use that .

word well, think they just label are they just labeled the episode?

no. But look, I mean that the the establishment has in the democratic party has a huge influence over the outcome because they control the super delegates, right?

So we didn't knew some super charge the republican in this, I mean, being like a coastal al elite. T and what's happened with something just go in L A. I think that just drives out the trump .

voters in a massive way. Said that twenty twenty four be newsom to scientists race. I still think there's like a ten twenty percent chance of .

that that would be wild, be wild temper. Son.

what about you mention?

What's the story there? Anybody have any insights to your mention?

We had a few phenomenal dinner at my house last week. He is so we charming OK. So what you know this, what you, I don't know if .

you public be disposed.

Well, IT really happened. We had a, we, we had a, we had a fabulous dinner. And he met a lot of people here.

And he's, he's amazing. Did x come to that? And either and and either is amazing. He is amazing too. His his daughter, who SHE ran, I think, was my land arma udal incredible executive .

matching would jump. And you think my matching.

I don't speculate anything like that, but I think he, I think he's an amazing american.

Is that your guy freeze? Or would you go, john, mention because he wants to control spending?

I know, I don't know. Tell you.

one of the .

reasons why I like ark junior is that so many issues that he is deviating from democratic party orthodoxy, he's in favor of free speech and against censorship. He's in favor of civil liberties and against this, like massive surveilLance state that we've created. And our foreign policy wants to end all the crazy wars.

And I would say that of all the candidates i've heard, he understands the situation ukraine the most deeply. Now both trump and scientists have called for a ceasefire, and that's good. And I think rf k would work towards a ceasefire too. But rf k junior goes deeper and explains how the whole situation ukraine came about. And so he understands is very deeply how I folks.

do you have a another advocate of their own pocket for the dictator, the architect with tax and was .

a king maker is king.

I like 是 king， mr. Chief .

architect.

king maker.

but is a .

nickem, which are r king.

What do the articles say?

King maker, the article is a king. Mak, I said, architect, I think architect is more spanish.

Ge, the articles is about a call that never .

happened with .

a person you don't know.

the person know.

right. Okay, that aside, what what nickname would you like us to use going for .

a kingmaker for the the whole article .

was made up in that decide architect. Can I go to king maker?

I like king maker. I like architect.

mr. Secretary, please tell .

us which look.

i'm a mid level donor mid at best you're made read read sub dict.

I go a crazy right now .

and then influence or I mid IT .

best so secretary .

of state and mid mid there is true that they're very .

few pod casters you party do anything you could be yeah Henry .

test a mann albright to be secretary .

of state.

And I think you would click secretary state because you have the intellectual firepower to actually not get them buzzell on stuff you told your .

you know who actually I think was pretty good on on foreign policy. He doesn't get credit was jery questioner. I was listening to an interview with him, and this happened like eight months ago, and he was describing the whole situation, ukraine.

And he says very clearly that he and trump a understood that bring ukrainian data was a red line for the russians, and they never went there, so they armed ukraine, but they were very careful to not make any statements about ukraine coming into nato. He understood that that was a serious provocation. I'll post the interview in the chat, but he was with the, I think, joy Baker for the walls journal. So jerd understood the situation Better than most of these, you know, foreign policy elite establishment types who understand how their actions could be perceived as provocative by the other side.

Well, he sure secured the best hag after get net of that gig, two billion wool.

And he got the in the ord done. And now bands is flushed down the toilet because he alienated the sauty. So much theyve gone to the the chinese. I mean.

the fact that their sliding ghz betwen israel and the mindless nations now, and they seem to have common .

prety enemy.

and I think you can .

understand how much biden has alienated the you would shake by one, shake the man's hand. What was the point of that?

I, I, I am, I am .

not in favorite of. But what was was .

he was willing .

to meet with anybody, my, my, a foreign icy is meet with as many people as possible, as often as possible, and not go war. I would meet with kim jong gen. putin.

Egg pain on the regular, every country we should be with, because that's how progress gets mean, not meeting with them is yeah I mean, it's not a reward. I think there's a part of this military industrial complex that believes a meeting with the president is a reward or an endorsement of the worst thing anybody y's ever done. It's not it's a meeting to try to make the world safer, where to try to build common ground.

And so that is not me or jim crame, uh, have you want to uh try to frame IT? Um it's intelligent and i'm for intelligent foreign policy which is talking to people. Let's talk about some people who said yes to come to all in summer.

Let's just do a quick speaker.

I you.

We open sources to the fans and they .

ve just got crazy with.

A .

tension get. My 哩 个。