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cover of episode E27: The Great Inflation Debate, Amazon gets spicy on Twitter, rethinking supply chains & more

E27: The Great Inflation Debate, Amazon gets spicy on Twitter, rethinking supply chains & more

2021/3/27
logo of podcast All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

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People
C
Chamath Palihapitiya
以深刻的投资见解和社会资本主义理念而闻名的风险投资家和企业家。
D
David Sacks
一位在房地产法和技术政策领域都有影响力的律师和学者。
Topics
Chamath Palihapitiya: 本期节目一开始就讨论了关于创业导师选择的投票结果,Chamath Palihapitiya调侃自己在投票中获胜,并以此引出了创业公司选择导师的重要性,以及自己获胜的策略。他还谈到了与比自己富有和更有权势的朋友交往的策略。 David Sacks: David Sacks对Chamath Palihapitiya关于通货膨胀的观点提出了质疑,并列举了1979年的经济困境,认为经济衰退更容易导致相对平等,因为每个人都变得贫穷。他还强调关注经济增长、实际工资增长和贫困人口数量,而不是仅仅关注不平等。

Deep Dive

Chapters
The hosts debate the potential effects of inflation, discussing its impact on different income groups and drawing parallels to the economic climate of the 1970s. Chamath presents a view that inflation can benefit lower income groups by increasing consumption, while David Sacks argues that the economic woes of 1979 highlight the dangers of runaway inflation.
  • Inflation is driven by volume of activity and consumption.
  • The lower 60% of the income distribution generally consume more than they earn.
  • Inflation can benefit lower income groups by increasing their consumption power.
  • 1979 experienced a severe recession, high inflation, and high unemployment.
  • The Gini index doesn't fully account for government transfers and social safety nets.

Shownotes Transcript

Translations:
中文

Hey everybody, hey everybody. Welcome to the all in podcast with us today again, the queen of kin wai David freiberg David sacks the rain man himself and of course the dictator here chaos and let's get ready. It's a time tramp and sex here IT comes everybody. Sex is ready in the red corner represented rich dixon .

prime brain.

And rich evil everywhere gave in the right man sex .

somebody .

is gonna a do IT court representing .

the underside.

the forgotten, the underdogs, the walk left china party 哈巴 吉尔。

You are, you are right.

Rain man.

give me time.

We ww.

And and I will also be representing john eh Kennedy, who said a rising, who said a rising tide of spot and maybe even some.

Don't forget the champion, the champion of the left on the right yeah.

bill clinton did a great job. He ended, he ended the office said.

alright, so here we go folks um in in show housekeeping. We do need to point out that we've been running some polls. The fans of the show have been running polls.

And I don't even know why i'm bringing this up because I got barbecued them. But we have three polls we need to share with the audience from twitter. The first is if you could have just one of the pob ties to mentor you and your start of growth.

Who would you be and why? Looks like rain man, you ran away with that one with three hundred and nine percent. The dictator with thirty four queen of kind, welcoming at seventeen. And uber, their worth and investor came in with the mister eight percent.

I will tell you this, this is why eighty three percent of startups fail. They choose the wrong mentor.

So I I was proud to win this one, but the truth is, so trouth was lightly ahead. And then I put my thun on the scale by reaching the pole, because obviously my followers are more likely to vote for me. So then I shot ahead, and I kept real quiet because I didn't .

watch a mot retweet IT to his .

one point two million followers. And if he had done that, he, I would blow me all the water. But I kept real quiet till the time collapsed. And then, and then I shared IT with the group.

No, nobody keeps the track of followers, but it's actually closer to one point five.

Person who knows your father work out Better. His phil hellmuth help.

Actually, every morning .

phil hellmuth subscribe subtracts his number of subscribers from yours to know the net. Alright, second poll came up. thanks. Mad for this. Although I met ya, no friend of mine or I poor request list to another pole and see the other side of this story.

If you could have just one of the olin pod best is moderate your podcast or would you choose? And IT turns out the dictator, thirty one percent to my thirty point six percent of full, one percent more than me. I came in second world's best wingmen and rain men, twenty one percent.

Queen gua, sixteen percent. And then most importantly, which best would you want in on your side in a bar? I I T smooth .

the voice that that an away from here.

Thank you.

Yes, I think, I think, I think the audience is just trying to hurt Jason, just trying to hurt Jason. That was. But Jason has heard .

he's inadequate by more than one percent for a long time percent.

I usually it's measured in inches.

not percentages.

Somebody was dunking on me on twitter and they're like, you are the poorest of all your friends. I was like, that's the strategy. Always have more powerful and richer friends than you.

Then you don't have to worry about picking up the check. okay. Um and then there was another interesting A I breakthrough this week.

Did you talk about the bar? fighi? What was the bomb?

Curies the bar fight? One, hold on. I you right, I didn't get to that one. Uh, the bar fight was, oh, here we go. For some reason these morons seem to think that your stick legs are going to help them in a fight.

Bro, that's a bad, I honest. I need to correct this. Like that was maybe bad lighting or a bad camera. 然后 no 大 no 喂 喂喂喂, you are old as .

box right now。

I can see there are not there. Guys, guys, guys, guys, guys. I sky, come on. They're not as skinny as people seem to be rAiling and honesty. I am happy to know if if there is a standard way of measuring, okay, you know what, Jason, if there's a standard way, if somebody can tell us what is the standard of measuring leg circumstance, i'm happy to submit my my measurements. I don't think they're that skinny.

They're really, really interesting, super disturbing you you ve got a lot going on the .

top and very proud of you. But below the belt of it's legs and apps to keep your back.

tell you guys this podcast will win in the poll is the hosts talk about themselves more than any other pocket on the .

internet we know. Talk about each other, order.

make fun of each other. Yeah, this should be called the .

naval gaze podcast. So best is you most want to fight. Can walk coming in dead last.

Yeah, i'm coming in at seventeen percent rain. Man, thirty two percent in cheap. I guess that first trap you tweeted, got you, thirty nine percent. And apple.

other thing these polls tell me is why democracy doesn't work. But go on to, I can hold my own in .

a physical altercation.

I think, yes, I think you want to matha I, because I think sax is going to be under the table calling nine one one and freeburg going to try to talk IT out and get just absolutely sucker budge. Like guys we don't really .

need to buy Jason. Jason is the one that would smash the beer bottle, create a ship and save our scope. I think I have Jason. I I would actually pick .

Jason this number if .

you were going to. Certainly on those skills, on more than one occasion, he's claimed to be an expert in type.

Do can we pulled up the video, the video 了?

Now, where's the video of Jason pushing? Help you make news. Video, if you want to see Jason and a grown man, another grown fifty year old overweight man, fighting. We have video. That one I don't .

know if we should show. But nick, you should definitely insert the image of jack out trying to do the time to kick and IT looks like he's about to our herniated growing about start that .

yeah alright.

let's start just what what do we got this week?

I guess the topic that we should get right to is inflation. This is a topic we ve been talking about a whole bunch because we're printing a on the money. Everybody seems to think the heads against the inflation is to buy bitcoin.

Or do you put your money into equities? And are we actually going to see things other than homes and education massively inflate? We seen some anecdotal evidence of this. Tesla increases the Price of their cars. Used cars have gone up in Price, which is a function of the lack of production of some cars, the pandemic. So might be multi to factors there, but just putting IT out there are we're going to go we going to face inflation that you know goods and services are going to just go through the roof and cost? Or do we have enough efficiency in the system that the average consumers is not going to see massive inflation on products and services they buy coming .

out of the the real issue that chemosis inflation is good? And he because IT creates equality and he thinks one thousand nine hundred seventy nine was a great year.

I think you go straight to the art. Let's let's go a general discussion.

Let's go I think we should go to show me to explain this tweet storm and then I respond.

okay.

So I think, David, you got unnecessarily emotional and personal that was not again, these are things that i've learned from someone who I will say without betraying him um is an extremely well respected person at an extremely well known institution that basically has helped make a lot of sort of capital alatas very smart about things and has made people a lot of money. So, uh, I was relying what I learned through him.

So let me just relay that again, and i'll just start with this. Whenever you have a dollar of income, you can do one of two things. With that income, you either consume things, right, so you buy or you can save and you can put them into investments for the future, right?

So consumption and investment, the reality is that most people, so the lower sixty percent of the income distribution essentially spends above their income, right? The lowest actually spends at. So a dollar earned is a dollar spent.

And then the middle two, because they have access to credit, a dollar earned, they spend about you know uh percentage points more than that when you get to the richest uh twenty percent of the population, they're actually able to save and they save about thirteen cents of every dollar and they are able to invest in the future. So consumption and investment reality is inflation comes through a volume of activity, right? So you, as a rich person, can go on by one one hundred thousand dollar neckless activity.

IT doesn't move the needle for inflation. But when you know two hundred thousand people buy a thousand dollar television that felt in the economy, IT moves. So inflation comes because of growth tuning of volume.

So you need consumption. And by definition, what that does is that pushes consumption into those, you know, that sixty to eighty percent of people that are not the top twenty percent. So what that means is that, you know, you have a volume game of people buying things.

And when they buy more of those things, inflation goes up. How do they buy more things? They have more income because their propensity is to consume.

So then you have to ask yourself for where is this incremental uh, income coming from? And all he has observed, which I think is very credible, is we had the supernatural event in the pandemic. We've now started to print trillions of dollars of incremental consumption.

And that's going to start to lead to the most simple ways in which consumption manifest in inflation, which is via commodity Prices. What does that mean? Let me stay simply.

A rich person lives in a well insulated house, drives in electric car and eats fish. A less rich person lives in a poorly insulated house, lives and drives a um an S U V and eats beef. Beef first is fish. As a simple example, IT consumes twenty, thirty, fifty, one hundred times more input costs to generate the same pounds of protein and fish does.

Is this an example of showing how income distributions and the effects and the consumption patterns of large slots of people drive different consumption behaviors, which drive inflation? So all he was trying to represent to me was that idea, which is that we have printed trillions of dollars. We are creating artificial levels of consumption.

That consumption will actually drive up commodity Prices. Commodity Prices will actually drive up inflation. Then what he told me was the best analogy. Again, it's not perfect.

But IT rimes to the history is what actually happened in the one thousand nine seventies which is that by having this sort of um dowry condition you have to ask yourself what will happen if inflation retire and you know starting in the late sixties through the seventies, that's kind of what you had the same kind of bound dicon forget the way in which the money got to people. You know in this case there was a government check, but in the late six season, early seventies, we had similar kinds of programs. We had had start, we have a amErica s we had food stamps act, we had the social security act.

All of these things were transfer payments. And when you put that much money into the hands of a large soft of people, consumption went up, commodity Prices went up, inflation went up. IT picked in one thousand nine seventy nine. But IT also happened that when that happened, the gap between the region, the poor, was the lowest IT had ever been. And so I thought that that was a really interesting .

thing to observe. Okay, sex, you were triggered. You were triggered by this.

I wasn't trigger. I just said that was mos worse takeover and .

but David, but David IT wasn't IT was in my .

IT is not explain what one of the the take I created a powerpoint .

so I pulled .

your mother no, it's not boring and and chemotherapy .

one IT too.

So I hit up to keep the freedoms g index high. So good head tax. Take us through the power point.

You keep this quick OK. So i've caught the power point of works together.

David, David is is right at the top of disclaimer. Here is something I learn today. Why isn't my take?

Well, you said you responded to me than saying that I didn't like fact. So that was your response. So I improving unica some facts. okay. So first all let's ask the question. Was one thousand nine hundred seventy nine a good year? I don't think you can just Cherry pick this one number, the the june and dex, and say that this was some sort of great year.

One thousand nine hundred and seventy nine, a severe recession begins, which ultimately leads to negative point three percent to growth in one hundred and eighty, the word stack lation misery index become household terms. We had unemployment of six percent on its way to seven point two percent in thousand nine hundred and eighty. We had a thirteen point three percent in inflation rate.

The prime rate for thirty year mortgage was a living point two percent of, yeah, good luck trying to buy a house. We had long lines of the gas pump. There was oil and bargain.

I have control the gas pump lines.

I wasn't born yet, but on.

yeah, who is crazy and then.

you know, Jimmy Carter declared a national crisis and confidence, this was the so called speech, was well on his way to becoming a one term president. So what the shows .

is that.

hold on me to the takeaway so the takeaway is that you know, the gene dex says one thousand hundred and seventy nine was a great year. And you the issue is the reason IT wasn't is because it's a lot easier to make everyone equally poor than equally rich when the economy does poured tly. Guess what? The gap shrinks.

Um the markets that had a great line about this. So long as the gap is smaller, they would rather have the poor be poor. That's a great video of one should watch on her last week to parliament, moth posted this chart showing this was the the percentage of wealth held by the top point one percent.

IT will go to you next to explain one, two and three. But let me just point out. Look at when else gene x was pluming.

The one thousand nine hundred and thirty eighties, the great depression, did a great job creating relative equality by making everyone poor. So my point is, yeah, I understand there are these equalities, but you know what creates inequality? Economic boom.

That's what crates tes in inequality. What we should care about is not just inequality, but economic growth, real wage growth, a poverty, hundred people are below the poverty line and concentrations of power. So that's what we should be looking at, not just this junior efficient. Let me stop there. I've got other size, but i'll stop there and let you respond.

Sex book go back one slight um the the three points there were just interesting to me. Number one was uh L B J and the war on poverty and all those social programs. Number two and you spoke about this, but I don't think you're doing a full accurate assessment.

What Carters what Carters biggest mistake was, was he stopped the transfer payments because L, B, J. Started them, nicks on. Continue them harder, stop them. And I think it's important .

to frame playing what transfer payments are for .

people who do know it's basically like, you know there there are all kinds of ways to get money into the hands of individuals. You know we we now talk about universal basic income. That's the way of transfering money from the government and from systemic holders of capital to individuals on food stamps was away.

The social security was away. Um there's all kinds of different ways welfare was away until clinton dissemble that. So I I think that what what will never know is what would have happened if Carter hadn't actually stopped those baLance payments.

And the the key point is about what happened then afterwards and three, so you had this basically stopping by Carter. He didn't get to, he didn't get to read any other benefits of IT. Regan comes in and says, you know what, we're going to simplify the tax code.

We're gna defund all kinds of stuff, including, for example, all the melt to healthy funding that he had already done in california that spewed people with mental health disease onto the streets of 3Frances coming less Angeles and that sort of continued。 And then the real category, sm c change on top of all of this, which seal the fate of that trend line, happened, uh, in point number three, which is when gear George bush, uh, in two thousand and one had this really seminal decision, which is he had the ability to block china from entering the W. T.

O. And instead he left them in and he traded that for a vote on the security council. And when you think about what really happened there, you will unleashed one billion people willing to do anything at a keepers faster and Better rate. You ushered in globalization, you usher in the budding of middle class of america, and you transferred all that wealth creation that could have happened in a more inefficient, but in a in a baLanced way, that could have benefit americans. And you ship them abroad to china.

So I think it's just interesting to note that basically since nineteen seventy nine, we've all been singing from the same playbook and and I think that maybe what we need to do is figure out whether we need to come back to this idea of shifting the baLance of payments back into the hands of individual consumers. And all i'm saying is without making judgment, is when you look at what um biden has done in just in the first sixty days, one point nine trillion dollars of a stimulus and a proposed three trillion dollars stimulus package were just you know, we're not even three months we're not even three months into his presidency and you forecast that forward. IT feels like we're entering an era of spent, spent spin.

And that wasn't opinion of mind, which I believe is actually fairly accurate. I do think IT will drive inflation. I do think it'll drive commodity Prices. And I think on baLance, I do think IT will suppress the wealth creation of the rich. And I do think I will give folks that, uh, don't necessary early have investments, the ability to make more and real incur.

which they will spend well, okay, this is quickly. So I want to begin by agreeing with the the part of the mos response I agree with, which is, uh, what happened around two thousand and two thousand, one which killed wage growth for the average worker to moth, is right about that. But IT IT wasn't just George w.

Bush as a bite partisan disaster. In two thousand, bill clint pushes congress to approve the U. S.

China trade agreement and gave them full access, the W, T, O. This was basically temporary. M, F, N. And look at what he said. He said, economically, disagreement is equivalent of a one way street.

IT requires china open its markets to us in new ways, and that turned out for a one way street the other way. And then he also said that for the first time, our companies will to sell industry products in china made by workers here in amErica without being forced relocate. Manufacturing to china will be able to explore products without exporting jobs will do the exact opposite happened so and then.

And then what happens in two thousand? And one is bush makes this situation permanent. He grants permanent what's called permanent Normal trade relations for basically mf and status in perpetuity to china, granting them full access to our markets in chemotherapy that that devastate the average worker, because all of a sudden they're being forced to compete with foreign labor that's tenny making two dollars a day and is not subject to the same labor laws and environmental laws as workers in the U. S. R, so I agree with ramoth about what happened then, but but I gotto go back and clean up this view of what happened between one thousand nine hundred and eighty and two thousand, because that's where I think we have this disagreement.

Let's talk about the china thing for a second. We made a mistake there. We got hoodwink. We don't have access to their market. I think it's IT would be good to post for second and say, okay, we tried this experiment for twenty years. There was some good that came out of IT.

Our companies were able to grow and become the dominant players in the world like apple, but an amazon, right? We did capture a lot of this value. And a lot of people came out of poverty in china. I guess, on the margins, that's a good thing, we can all agree, but it's a communist country and we basically unable to communist country to become essentially, you know uh, are our counterparty in running the planet and in our leadership positions planet?

What do we do now in terms of unwinding this? Is there a way to roll this back? Or do we just mute IT from this point forward? And how does IT become a two way street? Or is that just not even possible, as we've seen with the N, B, A and some other companies, twitter, google just not being allowed to even Operate in china?

Who's we? America, united states.

the united states, I mean, citizens.

U. S. Companies, global companies, something. Yeah, you know, I think that the the chAllenge is your framework right.

guys? I think I think there's one big thing your forgetting in two thousand and one which is I think that bush actually traded away access to the W T. S. Of the thick, a guarantee china has built when he wanted to go to war with the rap, which happened in two thousand, three OK, two dumb .

decisions that got worse by being put together.

Thing is he was a trade IT was a trade. He traded, he traded access two. He traded access to the W.

T, O. In return for their support for U. N. Resolution to go to war with rock.

Look, I month you said that I was defending the republic lan point of view. I'm not. I'll be the first to say that George jeb bush was his presence.

Cy was a disaster. I think they'll go down as one of the worst. He got us into all these um stupid foreign wars in the middle east.

He began them. I think the decisions with china were a mistake. Um so I certainly don't want to defend that. By the same token, I think the clint years where we're generally great years in america. So this is not the partisan final sis on my part.

What do you think about the china concept here and and how we go forward? What's what's the path ford with china?

I I I I mean, again, like I think IT comes down to your objective and who are you solving for um and um who .

should we saw for democracy the human species?

Well, I mean, I feel like the point of view that you know one government is initiated than another is being tested and proven right and wrong every day no. And um and i'm not sure that it's fair to say that just because the form of government. That uh you know that the chinese have kind of um adopt IT and used to govern their their country and their people is innately wrong.

There are certainly things that are nately wrong in many democracies and that are nately wrong in many uh non democratic republics and so i'm not sure it's fair to just say that um you know that really the objective is let's get rid of that communi think I was an easy kind of simple check that you could use a few decades ago as a way to kind of rally everyone emotionally towards some cause. But um I I think there's a lot of businesses today that Operate effectively in their own kind of geopolitical cloud. And it's a little bit uh of a of a kind of a statement to think that an american company is an american company is not that american court on american companies solely build their stuff and sell their stuff in the united states.

Many, many american companies build stuff overseas and self stuff overseas and global, uh, globalization as much as we might want to to pull the effect attack on the average quote and quote american worker um IT really has transformed the way businesses Operate with respect to um uh uh uh politics and countries. Um there is a god. What's the book?

I can't remember the book.

but there is a book that speaks to how are a lot of large multination corporations today effectively have to Operate as if they were countries into and unto themselves. And so they have competing interest with respect to what the average american, or the american government or the american people might have, even though they might be caught in quite american companies and there might be some intricate tie um and so i'm not sure it's as simple as we have to quote on quote defeat china.

We are so intricate tie a to the uh to the economy of china, to the workers of china and vice versa um and I think that is a much more complicated thing than you know here's our three point check Cliff for how do we code and to be china uh and that's that's why it's hard and that's why I think a lot of smart people have you know kind of taken on and been chAllenged by and failed that trying to resolve a path forward where there's this quote, looming enemy that is going to become the global economic power which strips the american uh uh people of of their influence around the world. And you know that maybe kind of the inevitability of twenty for a century. I don't think there's a vitamin. I don't know there's a simply to and I don't know if from a business point of view, let's say i'm a company, i'm not sure I necessarily feel the effects of one coron court country affecting you know having more influence globally with other countries and others IT turns out a lot of businesses have greater influence than a lot of governments um and so you know one way to kind of think about the evolution of globalization and maybe even with respect kind of the notion of what we've been talking about decent realization, is that maybe governments themselves become less important in the twenty first century and it's the kind of decentralized online movements and and businesses and and you know other kind of entities that perhaps are not as regulated and controlled and owned by governments and you know maybe the big failure of the twenty for a century will be governments .

i'll say timah sorry was a IT.

No no, I think it's yeah .

it's any xing. The thing that you're .

not willing to acknowledge is that even when GDP shrinks, it's like it's shrinking from a bed rather substance growth year over a year like you know are the GDP in one thousand nine hundred and sixty nine, real B J was president was less than a trying dollars in the GDP now is like twenty three and a half trillion dollars. And so it's been nothing essentially but a straight lined up.

And so you know this idea that we the inflation causes, you know, the the only way that we close the wealth cap is by making every poor is not true. Some people may be getting less rich at the same rate, so they feel poor, but the idea that you actually become poor is just not true. It's a feeling that you have, but it's not rooted in fact.

So thanks. When you look at the wealth gap, are you concerned about the gap or you concerned with you know the status of the folks on the bottom and how much their lot in life has gotten Better?

Yeah I mean, i'm concerned with both. Um actually there i've a slide on this too.

I would buy this argument and i've heard this argument from before from people not a smartest, David. I would buy this argument if GDP did something other than go up in an absolute straight .

fucking line. No, I D O G P in second. The first to discover is that part of the problem of gene index is that doesn't fully account for government transfers.

This is something I didn't fully know until I researched that um after your tweet stormonth but basically only two percent of the popular so the publicly reported stats are that thirteen point five percent of the U S. Population lives in poverty. Once you actually take into account all these programs and transfer payments, it's more like two percent.

You can see this on this chart on the left here that the Green represents the transfer payments. By the way, i'm not against transfer payments. I think we need a social safety net.

I want the social safe to be uh, as effective as possible. I don't wanted to trap people in government dependency. I wanted to work.

I want you to get people out of poverty and into the opportunity economy. But I absolutely believe we need a social safety net and we need these transfer payments. And you can see that the Green bars there make a huge difference in reducing poverty. The gene index doesn't really take that into account.

Well, how do you fund these these types of transactions yet the more of a of a stronger economy that you have, the more that you have a government, the more that you have an economic boom, the more that you see real wage growth and the ability to fund these programs. Let's go back this. This is look at GDP for a second.

So if you go back to, let's go back to this period, eighty two to two thousand, I call this the raging clinton boom. I see this is a byproduct, tisa, a relatively bipartisan period, where under a regnant clinton, you had GDP growth of almost four percent compared to the usual two, two and half percent, by the way. This is why regan clan left office with huge approval numbers despite scandals, member ragging had a ran contract.

Clinton had linski. None of that mattered really in the ice american people, because the economy was so strong. And you can see that here.

And by the way, IT hasn't been this strong in the two thousands. We've never really gotten back to this type economy. You know, since since you two thousand nine.

Is that because of the economic boom of the P. C. And internet errors, what would we attributed?

Technology boom has a huge impact. But let me to describe what started. Okay, what happened in one thousand nine hundred eighty one? Reagans and augeias, president in january of one thousand nine hundred and eighty one.

He cuts the top margin and contact ate from seventy to fifty percent. And I would say, equally important, you have poll voca at the fed. He breaks inflation in he jacks of interest.

Strates causes a very severe recession in one thousand nine hundred and eighty two. But he broke the back of hyperrational flag. And we had ushered in decades of declining interest rates. You can see that on this chart here, interest strates have more or less been in the decline since paul volker was at the fed. What is this IT made the um IT reduced the the the risk rate of a return, which leads to more investment in every in everything that leads to more investment IT LED IT caused a rally in the bond market and stock market.

And by the way, no one remember in moderate, but like most interest rates for buying a home at over six and a half percent for most .

of the was six last couple of decades.

David vid actually be intellect honey, aggregate actual GDP on this chart because what you'll see is IT goes up into the right independent of all of this bullshit.

no. And that's not true.

You can say something true.

And i'll just I show GDP growth .

rate vers notes.

Forget growth rate, what is the actual number we're talking .

about the real number, not the percent truth because I was actually about to ask real.

is this about .

great two.

mathew guys? Absolute .

number solute keeps .

going up the below zero or recession. Those are changes .

from the year before. So when you're compounding naturally.

no, no, the Green and red bars are the very bottom. Our changes from the year before. But these are absolute percent .

has GDP a recession .

in recessions to find these two quarters of negative growth. So GDP can go down.

David, can I just show you the aggregate GDP growth from nineteen sixty to two thousand? And you can just look at this and tell me what what is wrong with the trading economics website that that everybody else would .

use yeah for get up. I mean, I think one of the things that I have is a question for everybody is, is there a is there a major difference between two percent, two and a half percent, three percent growth in terms of how we all experience our lives? And what are we optimizing there for? Are we optimizing for consistency or we opt in? You know, no recessions.

Well, this is interesting. So do you see this .

consistent with the expect? This is agrican GDP.

okay. IT started off at less than a rally in one thousand and fifty something. IT was about, know a trillion dollars at one thousand nine hundred sixty eight, and it's about twenty three trillion dollars. Now this is the aggregate of what has happened in the american economy over the last seven years.

Compound ending interest is an amazing thing.

Now, exactly right now, this has happened in democratic presidencies, republican presidencies, when rates were at sixteen percent, when rates were a zero percent. So all i'm saying is we have a natural tendency in a nursery to move forward. The rate of change we can debate, and obviously is abdin float over years.

But the fact that it's towards moving forward and downhill with increasing momentum is undeniable. And so again, I would ask when we think about the fact that the natural tendency is that the next five or ten period, an aggregate will become bigger, Better, you'll be more of the pie to share. Why is inflation about thing? Because all that does is depressed financial assets that drives up earnings and income, which drives up consumption of the lower three or four cortile of the or lower three courtiers of the earnings population. I just don't see why it's such a bad thing.

I think I think mild, mild inflation you know, in the two to four percent range is is fine and it's probably Better. It's certainly Better, I would say, than two to four percent deflation. But when you start to get run away inflation like we did in the one thousand nine hundred and seventies, IT massive increases, interest rates. And that makes IT harder for people to bypasses and borrow money and invest money, because now the interview ever turn is higher .

and and that only I know, but that only applies to the top quartile of the population, the bottom of three cortile. Don't give a shit about what you just said, because they don't do IT. I don't .

think people want to have to spend six hundred dollars on a love of bread. You know, that's IT. Look, you look at venezia a, you look at we, mr. germany. You do not want inflation to get out of control and IT conspire out of control because once people start expect IT.

is that realistic though, that I will spiral out of control given technological advance efficiency? I mean, what does the backtrack you again, you are bringing up that?

I think that the really brilliant point, which is could IT really even happen today because if you think but where we allocate our time and attention and consumption, half of IT, by definition, are things that are just so naturally deflationary. We're all you know where we're we're on youtube, you know facebook, tiktok all the time.

Those are naturally deflationary sinks of time and energy and effort and money, right? So to date to to Jason's point, like I think that that's actually true. I don't think that is even possible to actually have hyper inflation anymore.

Where do we have for inflation nfs bitcoin equities and financial .

financial and homes.

right? I mean, and that's a highly regular and and I guess health care and uh, a higher education, those but pretty .

much gently with the governments involved in basically .

what at the government not involved in nfs in micco's, those are the anti government portfolio.

But but by the way, health care inflation really started in obama because of obama care yeah and adding that the governments involved in inflate.

yes, because of the governments paying the bill.

Why wouldn't you raise Prices? There's no competitive market. This one .

customer charge, you want to be clear. I inflation is not my number one concern right now. I'm saying that he would not be a good thing to let IT get out of control, that's all. But it's not the biggest concern of my list.

Your main concern is dunking on chmagh for the tweet storm.

No, no, i'm not drunk on him. He dunk on me saying that he turned .

into a five hundred fifty year old girls who said something a government interpreted on social media.

And now we have to work. No, no.

you day I knew the audience of the beneficiaries.

No, i'll tell you. I'll tell you, my my main concern is this idea that economic boom are not a good thing because, you know, god forbid, the people of the top might get richer.

That's the problem. Yeah I don't know you guys have been following what's happening with ah the head of Operations at or could I guess the head of warehouses at amazon. Amazon is standing up to eliza.

Bit more in on twitter. They're mixing. And after you guys see .

these tweet or no this go, you haven't seen this.

No, I didn't. You donate like some ridiculous .

and of money to eliz warn campaign. K IT was a little teazer, bret and and I didn't like what I saw. So I to shut IT down. I shut IT down. On the turn was, lot was at the four .

for you lipped in. You lived in with.

I lived in with seven, four of suit. I put a little teazer bet out there. I didn't like what I saw.

And so I I folded. Basically, amazon is finally saying, hey, we're just going to we're going to stand up when eliza warn or berne stand, attack us and attack baths. And they just said, listen, you guys set the minimum wage, do your job.

We move the minimum wage and amazon to teen dollars an hour. We made our decision, get back to work and set the federal miniwavedraw dollars an hour and stop telling us we don't pair taxes because you make the tax law. So essentially this dub tails with the hearing. And if if you guys watched any of the hearing with soccer berg and everybody, but basically they were, seems like big tech is just putting the fall down and saying, just tell us what you want us to do because we're doing IT. We're giving .

people what socker. What socker bern dorsey basically said is that if you don't like that kind of speech, then why you prohibit IT and self telling us to do IT, you can and you won't because, you know it's violation the first amendment so that yeah, they were kind of pushing back on them saying, listen, if if you have such a problem with that.

pass a lot. Yeah and this guy, dave Clark, you guys? no. Dave Clark and amazon, no. So this is the guy who's been mixing IT up. And if the audience is listening, you can see a bunch of this uh, on the youtube channel because we a.

he's like the number two guy there. He he runs all he runs the entire real business.

I guess. Yeah so now amazon is on a focal ss to engage with let's call IT the socialist left um I guess they call themselves democratic socialists because they don't want to be called socialist and they're saying like list, we give people health care. We give fifteen box an hour and if you want to tower the facility, tower the phillies.

But nobody is playing in bottles. And then of course, the press in a couple of people showed bottles with p in them that drivers can't stop to even go to the bathroom, which I think is a tragedy. Harper, people should not have to pin bottles.

I mean, they asked me about I, C, M, B, C to us. Like, use a serious question. Like, of course, nobody should be paying a bottle. But if you look at this exchange, I think we're kind of hitting the end of this debate, which is everybody kind of agreements we should have helped are for in the country. We should have a fifteen dollar or minimum wage. Why are we dunk in fighting with each other when we've got this adversary, which is or two adversaries with russia and in china, we have these two crazy adversaries who want to build authoritarian countries and control the economy and eventually control the planet. Why is why americans fighting with each other over these issues?

I mean, this is, this is just incredible. I just want to read berny sand says, I look forward to meeting with famous on workers in alabama on friday.

All I wanted know is why the Richard men in the world, jeff bazas, spending millions trying to prevent workers from organizing union so they can negotiate for Better wages, benefits and working conditions, to which he replies, all we wanted know is why the senator is one of the most powerful polls and polite politicians in vermont for thirty plus years, and bare minimum wage is still only eleven seventy five. Amazon's minium wages, fifteen dollars plus grade health care from day one. The senator should save his finger wagging lecture until after he actually delivers in his own backyard.

To your point, IT IT is getting to a point now where folks are like, oh, right guys so step up and changed the laws um and changed the incentives. And I think that that's going to be really important. Sexy you add something that you uh you are really myth by, uh what sexy or something at the thing.

Well, well, what suck was trying to do in that hearing the protector guy.

what his name benthic is? No, no, it's strategy ory.

No strategy. I hit literally, said IT he gan to the poker game that we do at the d conference or the recall conference, whatever call cal conference. And he said he took three plus tap.

right?

It's the worst name that was .

ever created a tea a .

one hundred .

thousand year. He's got like ten thousand .

people paying for IT. It's crazy. Okay, great. So the way thank you for that. Thank you for that clarification. What ben thomson wrote, the way he described bizos statement, is that bizarre was pulling up the latter on all the other social networking sites that might come afterwards.

And IT was, look, IT was one of those tactical maneuvers that's in facebook sort of narrow self interest, but is so obviously in their self interest that, you know, people slam them for that is just too mock value and basic. What zuker g said is, listen, we now have over thirty thousand people doing content moderation. You guys should check you, the lawmakers should change section to thirty to say that you use the social media sites, only get section to thirty protection, the liability shield, if you engage in this kind of content moderation.

But if you're in a site that doesn't, you don't get protection. What's suck about trying to do small strops can't hire thirty thousand people to content moderation. So this is like classic regulatory capture, but done bringing in the open at a congressional hearing. I think you're right.

I think that kind of makes a lot of sense for him. The game theory is pretty obvious, which is like, okay, make IT now impossible for anybody to compete with us and uh, you basically lock us in forever, which is pretty tty brilliant. The question is, what do you think the other other the politicians fall for this? I think there they're frosting their hand down so .

they don't know choice. Yeah well, I mean, the democrat on that committee have basically you ve been saying that this information is a huge problem and use the social media sites need to corrected. You need to control IT.

And so zuck comes as long and says, okay, great. No problem. We've hire thirty thousand content. Moderation are going to do what you said. In fact, we're going to hire more.

And by the way, if you really want to get tough about this, why do you modify section to thirty to require IT? Well, how many other startups can ever hire that number of content moderators? This is creating a more that will basically protect oc and facebook forever .

recapture you.

And the other crazy thing in this was a stupid format. They come up with what they give each person whose know a senator or congressman was a congressman son, who's doing the question, and they give them five minutes. So they like, I only want to ask no answer and you're like, i'm going to ask you the most chAllenging problem in the world.

I need to answer yes or no by every one or zero and it's like, well, that's not kind of how nuances issue works like section two third, this is going to take some time. Can I get one minutes answer the question, two minutes to answer the question. And so jack and sucker burger average can throw their hands after you.

Like, I can answer this. And yes, no. Can you ask me? Give me thirty seconds to answer these questions. IT was pretty ridiculous. And then they were trying to get them all to say that their platforms were used for the january six insurgency. I don't agree with zc on much, but he was like, no, I think the people who were involved in january six were responsible for IT. So whether that's the president or the people who broke the capital, they are the ones who are actually responsible for this you guys didn't want.

So no, I, I, I read, I read some summaries of IT, and I think dorsey actually did did a great job. And I I like his performance and let me read O A quote um mixa tweet this so but he said, jack said, I don't think these decisions should be made by private companies or the government, which is why we're suggesting a protocol approach to help the people make the decisions themselves that was jack dorsey.

Now that almost sounds like me if he just changed the were protocol to first emc claw. So I don't want these companies or the seniority committee, you know, sensorily people. I want to use a revered external standard, which is the first of memc case law that's been developed over the last two centuries. So jack once use a protocol, okay, but fine, but he's on the right track. Yer, which is he saying, look, we don't want to be in the business of having this power to decide who's going to have access to you to the town square and that's a step .

in the right direct. But he's also got a project there to turn social networks into open standards. So in other words, the way we can all anybody can make an e mail cling because email is an open standard.

Anybody can build a web page or a browser because hdl is an open standard. He wants to do that and he's working on that inside of twitter, where anybody is going to be able to take their tweet and they're going to be decentralized. Uh, there there's going to be no central server and you're going to be able to bring your own algorithm.

So if you feel the algorithm is causing you to see extreme views, you can say, I want mind to only lean towards, I want this one that leaves towards positivity and kindness, right? Somebody can make a third party. There's algorithm that gets rid of jerks.

You guys probably saw this week, but, uh, uh, a deal was announced and investment was announced. Uh, Andrew skoal, myself and a few others. We did this thing called bit club.

I heard about this.

So what is IT? Just to give you a sense of IT, it's I know basic about IT separately from a bunch of people yeah so I mean, like the inutile, you know what these guys did was they said, okay, well know, we're gonna take this entire blockchain concept and we're going to forget and we're going to create this thing where folks can um essentially uh have one block chain.

They can you know uh have content around IT and then identify sort of people and nodes and all of a sudden, like we all have this currency that sits on top of this bit cloud currency. And why that's interesting is their first um APP that they built on top of this was basically a kind of a clone of twitter, just kind of as a proof concept of and uh, I think, Jason, it's moving to a place for now. People with reputation and um people with trust can actually signal that they have IT and they are not.

That's a probably a Better way over time for for folks like us to figure out um what is valuable and not valuable, what is trustworthy or not, irrespective of which ever end of the spectrum is coming in off. And then if there is this information, you know that person's quote on quote bit cloud stock, right, that they are token will fall in value. Uh probably be a lot of interesting apps that built on top of this.

I was really um drawn to the general idea of the project, and I think that's what I read in the korea probably felt as well. You know there are these interesting solution tions as big cloud. There's Jason, what you said, this open source project to twitter.

It's all it's all gonna really interesting. But I think if we can get to away where we can quantify reputation trust, that's the another way of around working around the pulling up the latter effect of of what facebook and twitter effectively told congress this week. I wanna talk to you guys about what the hell hell is going on in the us.

And what does this mean? I mean, uh, freeport, what the fuck is this? This is unbeliever.

You know it's so branded. M um and unfortunate. But this uh this ship that waste two hundred thousand metric tons, uh that's taller, it's longer than the empire state building is tall going through the U.

S. Canal, which I think you know this about a hundred ships a day go through the U. S. canal. Um and it's you know the U S.

Can oh really is um know of amazing engineering accomplishment that uh connect the uh medicine ian see at the red. A basically allow ships from asia to not have to go all the way around africa to get europe. And a the ship goes into the U. S. Canal and I had a black out, its power went out, and so I just kept cruising without being able to control the steering because this like figure power steering on these mass of shift, you know, like they don't have like a wire connected to the rudder.

And so no back, a Better .

supplier on to back out of they couldn't get the power back on. And the thing just keeps cruizing and cruise on a cruising and IT cruise is right into the side, which is the big sand barrier on either side s canal. And he gets lodged in the sand barrier on the site. Now when you have two hundred thousand metric tones moving at a few miles an hour, that's an incredible amount of momentum of energy. And so when IT lodged in the side that you know IT .

was lodged in there and .

now oration and actually city and I can't get IT out and now they think it's going to take another week or two before they'll be able to to dig all around the stand and tug boat, the thing out of there. Um but I think what synchro s are ten percent of global trade move through the U. S.

Canal, and about a hundred of these massive ships a day you move through this canal. But I really highlights the fragile ity of our global supply chain, similar to kind of the experience I think we had during the cover pandemic when all of a certain things like toilet paper where let's available to us. Um but you know A A small power at age on a boat, on a ship you know uh in the middle of um uh of U S.

Canal can suddenly block up so much of global trade and cause you know massive flotus and commodity Prices and availability of supplies and products for businesses around the world going to be polling economic effects for a period of time. It's unclear how significant they are gonna be. But you know I really do think that um taking note of the fragility of our supply chain is particular context is worth taking a step back.

And you know I spend a lot of my personnel at my work time uh obviously off the podcast thinking about kind of our systems of industry and you know the global industrial revolutions were really predicated on this notion of centralization. We took uh a lot of our production systems and we centralized them and and created automated, repeatable tasks. And that reduced the cost and allowed us per unit of production, uh, to basically make things much more affordably.

But the problem with centralization, generally speaking and supply chains is exactly this, which is you have a supply chain um that is much more delicate uh and um IT is much more I think about the difference in power, right? If the power goes out of a power plant, all the homes that are connected to IT lose power, versus if every home had their own power generator solar selves, they could continue to support themselves. And in a similar context, so much, and this goes back to our conversation earlier ation. So much of our global supply chain for industry has become centralized by finding the lowest cost possible, but IT loses all of its durability.

And so the twenty first century, and especially leading into this infrastructure bill that we're gonna talking about or or that's gonna talking about for, for a long time now, for months to come, presents an opportunity for us to think about durability in industry and durability and supply chains that I think is really profound and allows us to shift the baLance of um of power, but also shift the set uh the the the sources of production of all the things we consume as a species, a much more distributed way. And that can be done using Green technology, using you are treating using bio manufacturing, you know using solar. There's a lot of vertical version.

Yeah whatever. I'll disagree with you on that one and will talk about that separately, but I would argue like so much of um of industry has been centralized because remember when the industrial revolution took hold, the only skills that we had as a species with mechanical engineering and in the years that followed, we developed skills in chemical engineering and ultimately in software and hardwork engineering and now more recently in biochemical engineering where we can use biological systems to make stuff and the advent of those technology capabilities I think really gives us the opportunity today to reinvent the supply change. Um and so the U. S. Canal, I hope is a little bit of wake up call and I hope leads into some of the thinking around the infrastructure build proposals where we're about building durability in the supply chain and in that process, by the way, creating manufacturing jobs um you know in a more distributed way.

Let me build on a what you are saying. So for all of the people listening that really, really care about electrification and electric cars and there's a bunch of tesla balls here. You know tesla uses a specific kind of battery called N C A.

And um there's you know other formers of batteries. But for the most part in tesla in china uses the cell of p chemistry. But the point is, uh, there's a lot of very, very valuable nickle that goes into making limon batteries.

And so if you believe in electrification and you believe in, you know, zero emissions and you believe in using these batteries, you need to believe in nickel, which is a tough business. Okay, your your grabbing, you know rock out of the ground and you're reaching this this extremely important uh, metal out of IT. So just uh a little while ago there is a huge nico manufacturer s called uh northeast right and they have these uh two russian nick mines and just very recently they flooded and uh the plug which had been erected.

For localizing, the flooding was washed away, not for the first time, not for the second time, but for the third time. And people now think that getting all this water out of the mine may take at least a year. Okay, so what? what? Why should we care? Well, right now, if you think about all the batteries that were forecasts, ted, to make in order to sort of eliminate climate change and you know, do all these good things and for you know tesla a to make their you know beautiful cars or whom ever that that you know um they need, nico.

And right now we have we have a deficit of nickel that's going to emerge now in less than a year. And we have we have about a thirty seven to forty percent shortage of what we need. So it's like you have all these grand deals, visions of how the world should work.

And an electric failure in a barge shuts down the global supply chain for weeks and a flood. A nickle mine is gonna cause the Price of a test that a basically double. And shouldn't people at some point ask selves, is this really what efficiency is supposed to feel like on the ground? And IT may not be right.

And so maybe, again, going back to the first conversation, a little bit more inefficiency, a little bit more inflation, a little bit more redundancy will allow us to be resilient. And maybe that's what we really want. We know well.

Um you can ask the people in texas what they want after they lost their power and have they have one light snowstorm and the whole cities destroyed. I mean, there really is there is something to having the redundancy in your home and the supply change and obviously drugs which we witnessed in the pandemic.

why I am so concerned about um short term profit maximization that we offshore our entire pharmaceutical and P P E manufacturing to china, which then said that they might rationing to us based on geopolitical concerns. So yeah that is that that is penny wise and pound foolish. The absolute definition is.

is the infrastructure bill um going to fix that? Freeman, have a run down of the infrastructure bill.

You know there isn't a good there isn't good clarity on this. My concern is that there is gonna a lots of uh, push for things like roads and you know stuff that doesn't create ongoing jobs that so much money is going to go into basically a disguise ed stimulus package versus um you know the ideal kind of infrastructure program said uh is to enable industry.

So if you go back and you think about like the manhattan project to the Apollo mission, those were very expensive government programs that have a very specific Mandate. But because there are big investments and difficult problems, they unlocked a lot of industry um that followed that initial development cycle. And I think that, that is kind of a good guideline for us to think about with respect to what we might hope for an infrastructure your bill to do, which is to create unlock for industry as opposed to ploy money in the short term, service contracts with a bunch of guides.

We are going to make a ton of money building roads and IT doesn't really change the industry very much. And so i'm concerned it's going to be a giveaway of money. It's going to create a short term stimulus but doesn't really create long term effects in the industry.

But we will see what of comes out as they get more clarity on this. There's certainly a big post for corn or Green, but I not sure the people that are calling called Green advisors in this in this context are gonna thinking about this, you know, this next century of opportunity. Ah so so so will see amErica .

is gonna have to have a real come to jesus if they actually really give a ship about climate change. Give you will give you different example like um again to to really election fy, you have to pull medals out of the ground that is a dirty business, okay? And there are impact to the environment even if you're the best added.

And right now in in the western hemisphere, IT takes twenty years to Green light of mine. Twenty years. Our shortages start in the next year in china.

They have no issues whatsoever, right? Let's to say so. Maybe IT takes some seven to ten years to get to get a project Green. Now i'm not advocating that we become, but uh, I think that it's really important for for us to realize that like you know uh if we're onna really take this seriously, uh, you can have progress being hijacked by things that may not matter as much in the grand scheme of things like there is the opportunity, for example, to build a massive set of copper and nickel mines in the western hemisphere. But the minute that they Green lift, they get there's an injunction that's filed by an N G O.

That'll say, I you know we have to think about the land gross and it's like the like, what the fuck is the land grows and at some point you have to figure out whether you actually want your kids to have asthma or not and whether they can suck up, you know P, M, to five in P M, ten for the rest of their lives or you care more about the land, grass. And this is gonna come, uh, come to ahead. And hopefully the infrastructure bill paves the way for these because I think as A A country, we're going to have to decide because many other countries, in order to have clean aye and drinkable water, are going to basically prioritize humans over the land gras.

I mean, reminds me of the nuclear discussion we had earlier in this pocket of like we can even put a new nuclear power plan in this country without a taking decades.

And any, any, any interesting updates on the business side. I saw a is microsoft relieve about to buy discard for temple lion dollars.

Yeah, if you look at that compared to you know the slack acquisition, is slack up what for twenty eight billion with was at eight hundred million in revenue, yearly revenue at the time. And this card has one hundred and fifty million and they're onna for ten vo. It's an even higher multiple .

times about your more sale for one point two billion at this point.

Well, IT was I was in hindsight, was probably cheap. The more you know yeah, yeah, yeah well, I mean, back in two thousand twelve, we we really back in two thousand and twelve, that one to two billion was like the best destination. O ah the upper bound of what a sas exit would look like.

We just never realized how big the market could get. And now obviously, you have slack at close thirty billion. You have docu sign appearing of forty billion.

You have zoom at over one hundred billion. And so the Marks just ended up so much bigger than we ever thought. And we were the optimists. We were the ones building companies and suspect then.

And so the cloud has just been so I mean, and you see this now with you the numbers that azure and uh google cloud and AWS keep reporting where they're like tens of billions of revenue and there's still growing like forty, fifty percent a year. So the cloud is is so much bigger than what we all thought and what came before. So that's what I mean.

So I i've just decided to stop trying to find new ideas. And I mean a new like a new thesis, IT is keep investing in this. That's why i'm kind of all in on on SaaS right now.

Do you think microsoft is bring this to compete with slack or they're doing IT to just really take over gaming?

You have any insight sex, I think problem. It's probably an element of both where they do like one of their few consumer business lines that done really well as x box and gaming and they bought minecraft. And so I think they can get some value out of IT there.

But I have to believe that this is competitive ly driven. They got to be worried about slack. I mean, the crowd duel at microsoft is the office sweet.

The reason they bow hair is to accelerate the transition of office into cloud, social and mobile. And and IT did help do that. And they're got to be worried about sales force now buying slack. I mean, that is bending off has been want to go after office for a long time and this .

is his way to do IT. Yeah all right. They have a folks ah another all in pockets in the can. Let me just ask question people making summer plan and four plans based .

on the making tonight planes, I can't wait to get your victims into into the poker sex. I want you to fly in.

please, for best vane, are you going to some fancy like pasta restaurant with your wife?

Pop in bottle with you.

yeah. Who are .

you hanging out with .

tonight? Was friday night.

And I again, what do you know .

their names and put him the end you have put him to bed, fly our door.

come to the poker game. Tell us your kids middle names.

That's that's a good one.

That's a good one.

Whatever just who knows I went to the movies last night. Um I I took um my eleven year old SHE SHE was uh SHE wanted to get to show checks so I took IT a shake shack and the move there I was there and he was open. And as I go, let's go check IT out of what's going on at the movie or in terminator two was playing fifteen minutes later.

Great film.

incredible film holds up an amazing to see on the big screen. We walk in, I kid you not, you know, hundred sea theater with these beautiful big chairs. Nobody there, and they were.

So did you rent the whole thing? no. IT just happens to be that they're open for business. They space people out. And was five dollars a ticket to see i'm taking my.

taking my daughters to the movies this afternoon. First time theyve ever been to the movies, you know, three to half and and two. I am so excited to take them to a movie theater. So we rented the whole theater for nine, nine dollars.

the best deal in town. What movie are you seeing?

tools. You can choose a movie that's the cool thing is like a list of like fifty films. And you can pick a film. So I got like a little kids film for them and they can get to go see a movie theater and have popcorn and have the experience.

And you awesome and you can have other friends there yeah.

you can help to twenty people see you read the theater for box. And you you if you want to come see tools to not just create up, send your ticket.

Oh my god, that's the cool. What thing .

happening? And i'm renting of the other forms, if really wants to bring their kids, it's a great.

My kids would never sleep after.

No, it's not for three to five years old, but you know ten year old. Yes.

it's a hundred box. This is an AMC theater.

nine nine box, thought AMC.

But the same apple is, I think, charge I S two hundred. And that the like really high and theater where you can press a button and the waiter comes and the waiter was like, thanks for coming. We really appreciated. Like you're one of the first guess.

There is no is kind of a tional moment .

for me to take my again because that's what we will .

do every friday. Yeah, there's no way movie theatres go out of business. I mean, there just IT sets like like a traditional experience.

It's so american, just b trading at, I wonder MC would be an .

interest of .

conversation. I got my movie theater down stairs. The other is on standby really at the end.

How many sets are you sexes? Like.

oh, you can only read a twenty sea bar and forty, or how many bitter do you have built in your various homes?

You only have one theater for home. sex. Is that one theater for home?

No, it's got a multiplex in each. These people want my move. Meet at the pop guards stand.

I'm excited .

to go back to the movies.

Wait.

wait is over.

I'm so by the way, how how right were we? I think IT was like two or three pots ago. We are saying that cover a be .

over by memorial day, memorial day and even california gather new some basically is finally capitulate the logic and everybody can get a shot now as a April, uh, fifteen, which means everybody who wants to get two point two .

minutes I .

take the recall and and me and shaming him Operating on twitter constantly I mean, Peter fram was tweet out like every day the growing inventories of vaccine and all the open appointments we all were in is like ridiculous. We kept out mentioning .

him five million shots on shelves in a pandemic. I mean, you don't need to be freeburg to understand how vaccines work. Each person's a blocker, right?

Yeah and and the other thing, the other thing that got news, some to move was that by in gave the press conference in which he moved up the date and so then that prompted newsome to move up his date. And the same thing happened like a months ago when bitten gave that that speech, where he said he gave that my first date as a date of once you could have. So Frankly, would be nice if we had a governor who would just do the right thing without the constant threat of recall and tweet shaming and know and the president dragging him, you know, into the future. But but I think .

we do with all, i'm curious what you guys think of what we should do with all this supply. I had an interesting idea for the economy. If you come to amErica and you've tested that, you don't have cove IT, right? You take a test on the when you get there. If you come to america, we will give you the vaccine at the airport.

Just I think I think what we gonna from now, you three little chips a week, and you get to put a chip in a jar, and then you can suggest one of your ideas, but then what you get through, or time.

this is a good the economy. Yeah, xing tourism.

you don't we like formalized .

vaccine tourists. If you come to amErica for vacation, complimentary vaccines on .

the way in, I mean, I ve already at the point, I mean look effectively effective. No, I think effectively we're onna have that I will be at the airport. But I mean the all the restrictions are coming off in every state by mid April.

Now people can afford international plane ticket. They are not like going to come to the us. To to get a shot.

I would like to advocate that we take these extra vaccines, we, to the developing world. Le.

yeah. That should goes out of the border.

for sure, for sure. yeah. And by the way, we're doing a much, much of job acacias people in europe. I mean, it's unbelievable that kova is spiking in europe right now because we've been so incompetent against .

people of vaccinated.

There he was. They want to put shocky incompetent shock canadians.

And the european said, we want you to prove to us the magazine works before we put our order in.

I don't think it's that, Jason. I I think Jason, like I think that like sometimes, I think over the last forty years, there's been two polar opposites of governing people. One is what I would call the autocrat, and the others is what I would call kindergarten soccer, where when the ball, no matter where the ball is on the on the soccer field, every player on every team is surrounding this.

And so as a result, no progress is here. Progress is thirsty and unpredictable and sometimes not great, but I can happen. And this is where, like, you know so like, I mean, we are i'm i'm still shocked at the lack of scientific rigor and understanding by these people. And so how could you have an entire western set of countries were theoretically not stupid, be in the situation in April of two thousand and twenty one.

knowing what we know? Yeah, well, how breaks IT looking now?

Because britain.

because britain is, like almost fully vaccinated, their cover numbers are coming way down. And then the british variant, the british variant is started in the U. K.

Is spreading like wall fire across europe, because there are too biocon tic to get everyone in vaccinated. So I mean, britain looking really good by comparison right now. I mean.

of kindergarten soccer.

yeah. And and by the way, this is this to tie back to the infrastructure for a second. I don't have a problem with infrastructure if the investments can be spent wisely, but how much was trust the government to spend the money wisely, as opposed to on pork real spending and Whitestone projects and taking too long?

We have the bay bridge in ca. Cisco, the original by bridge took two years to build. And then the the repair of IT took seventeen years where they did like the upgraded version. And that's the prom we have, is that nobody really trust our government anymore to allocate this money wisely.

Just to give people an idea, does administered poor one hundred people? Thirty nine. Well now forty for the us.

And israel, one hundred and fourteen a obviously these two do shots. Uh, and spain, fourteen. Italy, fourteen. Canada, twelve.

Mexico for my mom, who's a almost dating, just got her for a shot, which I think is inexcusable, just in true to have your listening disaster. And I just think that's unacceptable, unacceptable. SHE, seventy nine years old, it's unacceptable.

God, I mean, in the politicians.

these politicians and bureaucrats design this complicated system to prove that they're helping people, just like new things.

Correctly pointed that equity.

that's the equity.

The red, the red light should .

go off and you should run far away from whatever comes after we're going .

to solve an equity problem. And all right, everybody, see you all next time on the only in pockets, bob guys today.

tonight.

Bring us some of that tax crafty poor money. Come on, buy and come on. We will play P, L. We will keep you to.

The ever you fly to.

yes, yes you're right. I come and tilt IT because I .

be negative jeel just go for a coin choice how about .

if we cover IT.

we'll just do a flip will cover of cover .

your jeff els .

boy that's .

to know I didn't hear that somebody know someone in text and tell .

her to kick out of the house tonight.

Rain man give IT.

We open source IT to the fans .

and have crazy with.

Why try?

We should all just get a room of one big jorge like .

sexual attention .

that just .

need to release fee.