E53: Wealth tax, dealing with inflation as a capital allocator, big tech earnings, Facebook's rebrand, paternity leave & more
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Oh, baby, no skin on skin.

Keep the listen to me, only the best for my daughter. This is one hundred percent laupepa vicua. She's got a few card .

there are using logic to wiper.

Now this is the sweater that she's she's got her face on. But this is soft st material, human, you know, uh, I mean, natural material on earth, right? This is not subject to any supply chain straining when one right to.

you.

We can give.

We sort to the fans and they .

just got crazy.

Guys, isn't IT amazing how people in power can not take any time off and still remain in power and engaged when you have a baby?

JK. L.

what's the reference?

okay. Our friend .

to launch yle venture capitalist living in Austin had a tweet that I went viral, but maybe not for the best reasons, he said, uh, in response to a end tweet, a dan works at xi o, who was talking about George gan, criticizing a the amount of time buddy jack was taking on pretty leave and jolts that responded, wow, great for father should to spend time with their kids and sport mom's but any man in an important position who takes six months of leave for a newborn is a loser.

In the old days, men had babies and worked harder to provide for their future. That's the correct masculine response. There was an opinion from one thousand hundred and fifty seven that's eia in the way back machine but chose old school joe is a unique individual and he just happened to, I think in this whole like not get cancelled debate or don't yourself can cancel debate. The right is now saying, like i'm just going to tell you how I actually feel and so joe told there's actually how he felt.

I don't think he said anything offensive. I think you can have a different opinion than what he said, but I don't think he said IT shouldn't exist. He said, if you're in a position of power and you check out for six months, IT puts everything that you're doing under a lot of pressure that's, I think what he said, need those very specific people, losers. The context is joe ogun called up p goody's because peat booty judge uh had two kids via surgit and I guess it's taking six months or I don't know I don't even know how much time month but in gan issue with IT and then then primac basically said what rogan doesn't know is at his own company, I E spotify. There is a six month policy .

which by the way, john does not work for spotify this license show so there is no for for j oken to know the internal policies is not an employee.

I mean, Jason, if you if you want to hang your head on that little fig leaf OK.

no, i'm just saying it's i'm not defending joe, but i'm also saying, like how would he know it's not like he went to H, R, and was I, K. What's our he doesn't work there. Yeah, fine.

Well, six, six months is a long time, especially, I mean, that is a long time to take off.

The word loser is a very strong word. Do you think men who take internally or losers?

No, no.

The man who take six months .

of portunus? No, I, I, I, I went, call him a loser. I do think that is a long time for somebody who prioritized work.

I mean, if an interpreter r took six months of purna, would you with that influence, whether or not you invest in his business?

Well, look, if you are the principle of a business and you just disappear for six months, that's work. I mean.

let's be realistic, unless he does in case, then you have other problems. Well.

look, if you're at like the stage that google is at or whatever, the founders can disappear and move to be no islands and private islands and IT doesn't make. But but look, we all know I mean that when you are start up, you face existence al decisions daily, weekly or monthly. You can just disappear for six months. It's not gonna.

You might only have six month of runway. So if you did take six months of paternity, there would be no company when you came back, you like.

let me speak for myself. I couldn't ever take six months. I'll all probably take three weeks to a month. And honestly, I agree with David.

I really didn't do much of anything nt had to do Frankly, all of this by herself and so on there to just be moral support and help. I can, you know, baby needs a diaper change. I do that.

I'll hand feed in a bottle because she's tired of pumping in being a like. But I am so perfectly at the edges trying to help and be relevant and try to give her a break here there that's my role. And at some point when the kid gets on a schedule um there is even less stuff necessarily for me to do other than again, just been moral and emotional support.

Then of course, there is bonding and stuff. But you know, to be honest with you, like I have found this apparent, the the connection that I have with my children has gotten meaningfully Better as IT gotten older and maybe that's just a limitation that I have in my need to communicate and how I want to connect with my kids and how I feel. I get feedback back that gives me energy to be apparent.

IT is much easier for me to find that equation with my twelve world, and IT is with my no. Two days. So that just me you know i'm going to be out for three weeks to a months.

Then I mean, anything we're leaving out here is the question of resources. So joe longo, uh, according to his podcast, is a billionaire is pocket title. And so if you're a billion air and you have unlimited resources at home and twenty four hour nigh nurses, which you know, we all know what those costs and you're talking about a thousand or two thousand dollars a day, I to have twenty four our coverage, but that's nothing to a billionaire.

E, so if you, I don't make IT about class, but if you were two working parents and you didn't have the money to hire somebody, this is actually practically the only thing you can do. Somebody has to be with the kid. And I can one spouse be at home twenty four hours along with the kid all the time.

As you guys know, i'm from canada. In canada we have a one year maternity and community policy. I can kind of go both ways that the basically the family gets IT and you can allocate IT as and how you need IT. And in case for the .

the government .

care basically guarantees your job, you go on effectively unemployment insurance after some period of time where you go from one hundred percent of your salary to but I think it's fifty percent. Somebody will correct me if I get these details wrong um and then you go through the rest of the year now in both cases by my sister, you know when he had both kids you know on the way in SHE was like I think I wanted take the full year and by the six month mark SHE was losing her mind and you know she's a lawyer 的 yeah really good research hospital and know he does work that's really valuable her and that he finds really stimulating and he just needed more adult connection after six months I was very hard for heard that can be there yeah。

I just think six months for the second parent is that seems like a long time.

I I don't think I could take six months off, but uh, I also think if you have resources, there's pockets of time. Even when I did stay home for, I don't know, the first couple of weeks after the kids were born, you know, there are sleep for three hours, then you clean the diapers, feed them, they play for an hour two, and then they go back on. And now, you know, it's constantly to stop and start. I mean, that's a thing that's hard to the matt as the lack of sleep.

I think, oh my god, IT feels like, I mean, it's funny, bit like I I forgot what it's like. But you know you you reminded quickly IT feels like you're drunk. Yes, two hours you wake up, you get attending a cat nap, you wake up. And this is where, again, I go to, and i'm such a bit player in this play right now, you know, at the edges were not like that sleeping, I can take care of tally, but I I don't know how women do IT. It's it's incredible.

And for those of you listen, cheap has got his newborn on his chest, uh, and h swales quite nicely there.

This is why you should subscribe on youtube. And you can see.

you can see is you think is new tirer. The gyps description of this is that they should blow as past hundred 还是 什么？

How do you feel so special? I feel so lucky. I feel so, so lucky.

This is, give me the most popular chemo on the house.

And freeburg dog, yeah. I mean, he is so delicious with you SHE so she's so delicious. And I forgot how beautiful the sounds that girls makes versus boys having three boys and two girls.

Now I remember the boys, they make kind of interesting noises, but not really, but my gosh, like little baby girl noises. Oh, and you guys success to girls, you have free, free repair. Girls, it's.

girls are incredible.

My basic girl, so what a blessing. What a blessing.

I feel really. Any news on your front?

Well, we had a baby, the after at a baby.

All right, I relations.

Thank you. freeway. Where's your swallowed infant? You're letting, you're letting. Shamoon a wind .

sweeps weeks here. What's good here?

His vacuum on the week. I think I still back to work.

She's in the the place where you drop the kids off to get raised and when you pick him up in a year OK.

you're like all you may like vulcan. You're like vulcan. We to a learning pod come back a year later.

I mean, they sleep most of the day, so she's sleep right now, actually else and just send me put sheeting on the rocking chair either outside right now, pretty mazing.

I give one sell a lot of courage for saying what he thought. I really don't think that what he said was altogether that like unified. That's the word you want to use.

I think that there's a lot of reasonable points of view he could may be used Better language, but I think where he was coming from, I think a lot of us probably wouldn't do IT ourselves. We may never judge anybody else. I ouldn't never judge anybody who wants to take six month.

I know that I could not. I would just think me either too selfish or whatever but um i'm not shoulder just that much to do as the secondary. And to David's point, if I was asked to be the primary, I think I could probably step in and do ten percent of what that .

would do or here here's joe lanza super blind spot. He made this very gender specific with men and women in certain roles. And he basically is saying, you know, a man who take six months off is a loser.

So he is not just giving his opinion. He's attacking people who do take the time off. And then he says, yes.

And in old days, men had babies and work harder to provide for the future. That's the cracked mass killing in response. So I think what triggered people about this response and propriety, so is that.

This is just a little but Jason, here, can I say something .

this like degrading men who take time to take her of their kids.

But look, we've talked about this a lot. There is an opportunity for folks like us to take a step back and slow down and how we interpret a tweet that written at adm.

In the morning.

Super not just but everybody else. But there is an opportunity to teach empathy here where i'm not saying you have to agree with him, but you can also choose to see what he's trying to say through the exact words that he used, decide that you agree or disagree, and then just move on. Of course, you know what I mean. And and I think that the reason why folks may want to do that in this case, but in most other cases, is eventually IT will be you that makes a mistake, sure, and you want to be let off the hook by other people that are empathetic enough to say, I really disagree with what you're saying, but you don't deserve to be punish, ed, beyond disagreement.

I love sta said, you know, the mistake that we may might even be on the pot today. I am not already made IT I already IT I agree that we should all just be a little bit less judgmental. And there is an element, there is a judge mental element in just tweet that that's part the part I don't agree with this. Look, if someone wants to do that, fine. Take the time doesn't make them a elusive, but it's not a choice that I would realistically make.

Yeah, it's totally unrealistic. It's not even startups like you getting i'm getting put to these multi hundred billion dollar decisions a day. I can you know I could pause the business, but that will have so many downstream application. Ts, unfortunately, I picked a job where am in a position where I can check out even if I wanted to. So I try to do my best.

That's the point you going to make that wasn't that well, articular. I don't think any of us in the situation or we can straight walk away from work for any meaningful time. I mean, on a daily D, R, destroy my business text.

We get emails, we get phone calls that we have to answer. And so it's not a is you know almost definitely isn't an option to just walk away. But for those who IT is and if that's their choice, that's what IT is. The the great thing about freedom isn't that you can say whatever you want is that you don't have to listen to what anyone else is saying and you know really that disagree with joe. I feel like you always have the option to not listen and you always have the option to walk away from yeah, I follow and the whole idea of cancel culture and you know punishing people for the things they say regardless of what they say, and and the censorship and all the shutdown of a voice and channels for people to have a voice, I think IT um IT takes the freedom away that's inherent in the idea of know your choice to not listen yeah and almost .

always totally a hypocritical. So this is a post s script on the whole shaped l debate IT turns out that the leader of the the anti shaped l protests, you've been trying to get him cancelled in netflix IT turns out this this person has like a treasure trove of the most angry, hateful, vile tweet that everybody has.

When you put that in the group chat, I thought that that was a good, were so beyond the pale.

beyond beyond the show no I I don't even .

want anybody to .

speak these things to the literally .

the world tweet .

tweet seen more racist like I .

never seen such explicit racism in .

the twenty four century basically aside from these tweet and um and this is the person who's trying to cancel chapel was out there with the metaphor and who the press was funny over.

by the way and he said in her thing, yeah those were from a long time ago. I've already owned up to those, so lets me know .

how I owned .

up and it's kind .

of like, you know, let me play the empathy card on me but then you know, I so meaning I expect you to see through what i'm going through and that those expressions were in a moment in time. So see pass them and see metro character. That's what she's asking.

That's what she's asking the world to do you know about her, but then you're not willing to do at any for anybody else. And that's where I think that double standard just doesn't work anymore. And I think this is what people are getting .

really fed up with. And yeah and I would also say that her streets .

weren't funny. They weren't attempted.

So, great service problem with .

this b ing B, I want to be.

I want to bash this, know, beating asian, whatever. Over the head. Bobbi ba, like a lot of races. And towards asia.

asian people. No, there is mophead c to the asia asian hate tweet. I mean, IT latina, manic.

and he trying to be funny that I even even failed attempt to humor. So here you have shaped who I think is dishing IT out in an equal opportunity way, making, you know, funny a observations about, really, he's criticizing our culture, not specific groups, and he's been deliberately misinterpreted by the people who wants to cancel him there.

You really to think the chapel stand up routine is hateful, really requires, I think, deliberate obtusely. You have to deliberately miss interpret what he's saying. And so you have these people out.

They're trying to do that. And meanwhile, they are guilty. It's a total act of projection because they are guilty of everything they accused the bell of.

not all the .

the the ader. And of course, the press doesn't dig any of this APP IT all happens through through kind of internet smooth.

That would be a narrative violation, David, if if somebody is virtual signal and they are leading a cancellation movement, it's it's kind of a narrative violation to say, well, they maybe they should be cancelled by the same standard or you know, quite easily.

I think the thing that I don't think you should get cancelled.

I don't I don't think you should .

be cancelled LED.

But and what he said when he was drunk, what if he had nervous?

I can only imagine that that the difficult path that this lady has gone through and on the off chance that she's listening, i'm totally cool with her journey. I understand you made some mistakes. We ve all. I'm in electro of the hook. Can you please try to let the next person of the OK?

I think that would be a nice place for everybody to aim to go. And just a circle back with joe when he started explaining himself in the thread, when they became a conversation with a White rope of people, the journalist went on the pure dung cancellation. But then there was actually a productive discussion about between C E O S sea.

And I thought that was very interesting about IT was he he started to to gary ten, who you know was like this. We have a four monthly practice at our venture firm and and joe said, do you really take a hundred percent off called turkey or did you work part time and stay in touch like a responsibility leader of your firm? And of course, gary did just that right.

And then joe says, you know, I shouldn't have loser. And appreciate the push pack in more intensive Operational context. Losing key leaders called turkey for six months seems unnecessary, but I respect the different takes here. And I think that really is a an actual a good discussion about business. Hey, well, maybe if you're an intense leader and you don't have the ability to take a couple of months of, well, maybe you should take a couple of fridays off. And and then there was a really interesting discussion that's Better for a leader to do to spend a little more time every year or to spend three or four, six months in the beginning when you're, as you just said, to move on the periphery here and trying to be helpful on the margins. Maybe for the secondary person, if IT is in fifty, fifty sex, IT is actually Better for you to pick up some friday or whatever and take over the home.

Glad, glad you read that clarification by job because I think what basically is saying is that, yeah, he the initial language he used, he he he basically clarified that. And IT sounds like what he saying is, listen, if you're on a high performance team and you're the star player and you disappear for six months, that's caused your team to lose. So I think that maybe what he was saying.

that's a perfect analogies. Ask because if we were looking at lebron James or Kevin grant and they had a baby the season or dream on, had a baby the season, which i'm sure has happened to, you know, folks, it's not like they say i'm not playing the next six months of games. They missed one game, maybe two. They go back on the road and I think everybody understands that yeah you can give up one of your ten primary years or three years left that lebron and kd have left.

I'll give you one final animal to entice chapter for discussion today. Uh two thousand seven at facebook at one point in like one of the untin rord we were doing as we were trying to get out of the primordial woods. I was in charge of H.

R. And everybody at that company was Young, except for a handful of people. And then there was finally a person. And I think IT was our this H R person that that at some through some weird convolution of events reported to me who got pregnant, who is pregnant, and we didn't have a policy because nobody had ever got ten pregnant before. And, you know, I remember saying that we have to come up with a policy.

And what I did was, I was like, well, what would I want? What is this way if we answer both questions? And I came up with four months for either the father or the mother, irrespective the context. And that's how we started the original policy. Four years later, though, when I had my first kid, um I took like three weeks and I came back as the ground was do hard.

yes. I think I think where we have to go is it's been a crazy week of uh, the reconciliation, built the infrastructure bell and had to pay for this uh, incredible spending, been a meet a week. It's been that it's been a matter of week.

I mean, and this builds on top of our discussions about inflation, uh, as well as the supply chain issues that builds on the conversation we had about covet and the new president. So we're trying to get the wealth. We're trying to get the reconciliation bill done.

And part of that is, hey, how is this going to get paid for? And in the course of one week, we've seen, uh, the tax proposals flip. I think multiple times to ones that have never been tested in and may not even be legal in united states. Of course i'm referring to a billionaire x which was proposed uh, which would be a penalty uh or tacks on assets that are liquid but that have not yet been sold.

And I would look back three years essentially going after bassos or elon, Larry, sergey, specially going after the top ten billionaire in the world and then maybe he was maybe the top seven hundred that he became a million air tacks, all of this to try to pay for these bills. Wall, so much money has been poured into the system that me know. Nf, and stocks are going through the roof.

Where do we want to begin? Gentleman, does anybody have thoughts on this brief billionaire tacks that was floated and what that says about where we are as a country? In terms of how we think about the success of our great test entrepreneurs? We want to talk about what's fair for the process.

Well, I thought the the process was insane. And what was crazy was that, you know ran widen had been working on this proposal theoretically for the past two years and at no point did he bother to float the trial balloon with his colleagues in the senate to even see whether these people actually supported IT beyond some um folks on the progressive left who are ideologically fixated on this confiscated ory way of running the country.

The funniest thing about that bill to me and I let the powers that be know this is, hey guys, i've always been on the record. I'm happy to pay whatever takes you and I feel super blessed to be in amErica whatever we want to pay, thirty percent, eighty percent. I don't care. But I had a real issue with the way that bill was written because i'm like, um the democrats are writing a bill that will disproportion unav tax democratic uh successful billionaire and it'll leave attack the coach who is literally the bugging man to the progressive left who wants to write this bill and I thought, how could you even write this bill this way? IT is so stupid.

You're because those people on private assets and this is guys guys like me.

would have been paying billions of dollars and the coach would not a paid zero because their .

entities are private and worse, a public, just so the audience .

understand how in't seen is that. And yet we are the ones .

of that is a great second order observation. So people clearly didn't think through.

That was my only issue with the thing. It's like if you want to try to rain and jam through go hadn't try. I'm not going to be the one that that you know files a lawsuit the day after its past and takes IT to the supreme court, which will get hurt. And you know this conservative supreme court would not have allowed this this tax to stand.

You can't target seven hundred people, uh but by the way, the reason you can't target seven hundred because there is a slippery slope from seven hundred to seven million to seventy and what that does this allows tax and spend politicians a blank letter to go absolutely crazy and just find every single hair, brain, pork beral scheme that they can come up with. And that's really what we stopped, was an important slippery slope. And then in its place, I think it's a tax that is fair.

A simple sir tacks on adJusting growth income. If you above x, you pay five million, and if you're above, why you pay another three. So eight percent, five hundred and forty five percent on every kind of income.

And I think like that's a really reasonable way to get folks to pain more. That seems like I could start. But the first version of the bill was so stupid. And the thing that really angered me, though, was a targeted, democratic successful people and left alone republican successful people written by the democrats.

Freebase, what are your thoughts on the confiscated tory nature of this? And hurt the word is that I confiscatory where we're going back and saying, listen, you want so much. We're just gonna. Twenty thirty percent .

of we all pay property taxes. So we there is a experience we've all had with paying a percentage of some of assets that we own people of all in congregates every year to local government to fund local services that everyone uh, participates in. So you know, I don't think it's unfound IT.

Now if you look at history as a guide, you know france introduced to wealth tax to people making over uh I think that was one point three million year o per year um and IT was shut down, came back basically ninety, ninety, ninety thousand and between the year two thousand and the year twenty sixteen, twenty five percent of million years households emigrated out of france uh during this period. And the amount of tax revenue that was lost during that period of time was greater than the new revenue generated from the wealth tax that was introduced. And so france is ultimately scrap the wealth tax um and they're been a number of other you know reasonably good examples of european countries putting in place these wolf taxes and then kind of removing them uh later.

So um you know on the one hand, I I think that we've all seen this experience and switch zero one does this I think you get a tax on your total assets and sort have to go negotiate every year, uh, with respect to how much you pay. It's very weird process. So on the one hand, there is this kind of experience and and president for paying some percentage of assets.

Sometimes it's a targeted asset and sometimes it's not. But the longer range consequences of we've seen as, like you know, immigration and people realized is always a Better choice. The chat, the question we have in the united states, if we introduce the world tax like this, where will successful americans emigrate to?

Um you can see how people could leave france and go to belgium, or go to the U. K. Or go to switzerland and or go somewhere else where they might be Better off.

Uh, where where americans gna move to canada, you're successful. canada. I mean, are you gonna move to vancouver? I think you're from canada, but that would you move know where do you move to?

You know it's almost like the ends up being this kind of you know ah I think really interesting experiment. They'll be run here. Now remember this world tax was introduced by warn and others last year.

So this wasn't some new concept that that was by night. This has been one of those things that's been on the shelf for a while. What happened as they .

pulled IT down from the shelf. And so let's try had committee hearings on IT. A they've never had committee, Marcus, on IT. It's been tried and repealed in european countries. And like you said, they pull IT down in the eleven hour.

why? Because they are carefully laid plans where they're been concocting in for three months were thrown overboard when cinnamon said he went support the rating. Now why? I don't know why they wouldn't to hurt the begin of the process instead of waiting till the end of the process.

But so because of that, they're scrambling around trying to find any source of revenues. So it's, oh, well, a billionaire tax work? no.

Well, what about a corporate amt? How about that? No, what about a millionth search charge? These guys are like burglars rubbings ing through the house.

They hear, they hear the sirens. They hear the sirens coming and they're like, what can we take? Oh, the TV are voted down.

Where's the jury? What can we take? And and this you can set, you can set tax policy this way.

And this whole idea that we can set tax policy based on our intuition of fairness without having hearings to ask the question, what will this do to the economy? How much damage will IT cause? This is absurd.

I'll say it's it's really important to note um the market is telling congress something here and the market is members of congress informed by the uh their constituents. The market is saying maybe we shouldn't be spending this much because there isn't a place to fund IT and no one's raising their hand and saying this is something we can all lie on.

And so I think the the the more important fundamental question is, are we really equipped and do we really have, uh, general economic interest? Economic interest, meaning people measure things and vote with dollars to support these sorts of social program? That seems to me the indication.

no. And this seems to me to be primarily a response of the pendulum swinging the other way post the trump era, where, you know, the trump error was all about blowing up these productive, overregulated, bloated government infrastructure and programs and people and and bureaucracies. And now we've kind of found ourselves through our our voted representatives swinging the other way.

But IT turns out maybe we swang too far in the market is now voting and saying this just isn't a playing field we should be on. And so you know where they end up here. I think we're godless. It's going end up needing to be some sort of reconciliation on spending .

to make this all work, let's be honest. Berny Sanders and Elizabeth ren, where did not win the nomination, the country specifically wanted a moderate. Uh, biting was sold as a moderate.

Go back to the way was moderate dams like clinton and like obama. This is the classic coca cola. This is a new pepi nonsense.

And we got her wing to basically, and I think with a lot of democrats are seeing now, specially moderate ones is, hey, wait, second bite in is warn in burne and sheep s clothing perhaps uh, and we didn't want this this. We didn't want trump. He was too hot.

And we don't want this to left crazy. Let's just take everybody's money. Randomly change the tax code. I don't think american citizens want to live in a world where we change tax code at the eleven hour. That is scary to people, all people, people who have savings .

if you care about the economy and progresses. I think these progressives so IT used to be that taxation was necessary, evil. You, you tax people because you ve got to pay for government and government programs.

Everybody hates IT IT. But you do IT. You try to figure out the way of achieving the revenue government needs in the least destructive way possible.

But I think progressives now, they are so focus on monument ico about this issue of income inequality, the fact there are some people who ve gotten richer than everybody else, that I think they're willing to tax those people. I mean, they would like to siphon off money from those people. I think they would cyphering off to slide on fire, just a level people. And so they don't really care what the impact is going to be on the economy.

What I mean there I was, in fact ban the billionaire that was the roof. But know before we do that, it's one say. These rules, I think americans want the rules to be simple, and I don't think people want you change in the rules the last minute and then making the retroactive.

I think all americans want taxes to be predictable and simple, not just changed the William nearly, because you change the budget. This seems so unthoughtful and crazy. Check out your point two point to make.

The first is that I don't think anybody really knows what's in these bills. And as a result of nobody really knowing what's in these bills, they are used as as negotiating chips. So case in point, when biden came out and said, gina, we have a one point eight five trillion dollar bill now, and we're ready to get this time so that he could, you know, fly to europe and, you know, fly a cop twenty six and kind of you declare Victory.

Unfortunately, the progressive wing of the democratic party in the house said, no, i'm not ready to dance yet. And you know, they have consistently refused to sign an infrastructure bill until they got what they needed from this other bill. And so when policy called the vote, he had to pull IT because they working to get the votes necessary to get this bill passed.

So what this says to me is that even with spending IT doesn't matter what you're spending. Fact is that I think it's a trillion dollar bill, right? That's a one trillion dollar bill.

This is a one point eight, seven, five trillion dollar bill. Nobody cares about the quantity and nobody cares about the details. They care about some perceived moral Victory.

This is the only the reason why we're seeing this, you know, mexican stand off that we're seeing today. If these things were so subsidy vely important, we would have passed the first bill. We would have negotiated a reasonable second version and pass that too.

Instead, we're here going through the end of the year with nothing done. And I just want to know the democratic leadership who listens to this, because we know a lot of people want you to visit this podcast. You guys got ta get something done, because if you go into the midterms with nothing done with a democratic president, democratic senate, democratic house, this is going to be a bloodbath.

Well, this is why something will get done. But, you know, I think the political realities are that the end of the day, the democrat will come together and pass something. But it's concerning that we're just talking about doing something because IT will help you in the middle.

ms. You in the mortal words of Nancy policy, you have to vote for the bill in order to find out what's in IT. I mean, at the end of the day, we're i'm going to know what's in this thing and you know we're spending another.

They'll truly end up being at one point seven five trillion dollar bill. It'll be stacked on top of the spending. This already happened one point member by already past one point nine trillion of covered relief, another one point two trillion of infrastructure.

No.

that doesn't passed. Well, it's going to along with this now one point seven five million, sorry, one point one five trillion of this new social spending bill, assuming, right?

So it's about five, five trillion dollars, five trillion of wealth which progresses .

have will have set the stage for this to be perceived as some sort of failure. It's.

by the way, David, if you go back then, if you take that acron and added to the all the coffee before and all of them the fed buying, we've probably had one entire turn of GDP. So call IT twenty to twenty two trillion dollars of money created in the last three or four years. Right now you go back to so, so now, so now you go back to Jason.

What you started. The thing that I have struggled with the most in these last few weeks is trying to come to a conclusion on inflation. My worry is that is here, and I will be persistent. And inflation comes in two ways.

One number one is, if you massively increase the supply of money, why, I should say, the economy at one hundred dollars, and now of a sudden you just print to other hundreds and other than two hundred dollars, what will happen is all of the goods and services that make up that hundred will get rePriced to absorb the two hundred. So Prices go up. Inflation goes up.

The second way that inflation can happen is if middle and lower income people buy and spend, because when rich people have extra money, they just buy financial assets. That's why you get financial bubbles. But practical goods and services are bought by average every day. A Normal working folks and their wages are going up. And so I think what we've created is a real distorted inflationary cycle that's kind of really hurt the united states because, as sax talked about, we cannot print enough of money to pay for the debt when interest rates go up.

The one the one thing causing me concern as well is that you look around, it's all time highs for everything. It's all time best, everything that s cip, all time hires, crypto markets, all time has shabu E, U, worth thirty, forty billion dollar bubble.

I'm seeing SaaS multiples real, say i'm seeing SaaS multiples at all time highs, which you have to wonder, is this a new Normal? Is is sustainable or is IT some sof inflated bubble? Then you look at the inflation rates, five point one percent to to mos point IT might be persistent.

You look at treasury, the treasury of interest rates, that yield is one point six percent on the ten year t bill. okay. So effectively your real interest rate for savers is one point six percent minus to five point one percent inflation rate.

You're a negative three point five percent. If you to save your money in tables in sort of refer, you would take the risk free return net three point five percent. So now you have everybody going out there trying to chase the yal, because how do you earn to return on your money? You don't want .

to be so nf or so people starting .

ling into rescue rescue assets to basically try and make up for the loss of inflation.

And so you have to hit the one out.

yes. So then, okay, so so you have to ask yourself, okay. So back to this point about all time highs. Is this because everything is really this great or how much this is driven by these sort of distortions?

Fifty, fifty. I mean, I just putting a number on IT, like obviously, the industry and an economy is doing fanatic, but this is fifty, fifty.

Here's the other thing that I wanted to make, just the last portion, which is I think what we realize as well at the end of this is I I actually, again, now to use this empathy card, i'm going to give the progresses, my amethi carden said. I understand what you're trying to do, and I believe in a lot of what you're trying to do is to even the starting line for everybody right now.

A lot of what you end up proposing the stores that goal by trying to, you know even out the outcomes and even the finish line, but I really do think they wanted even the starting line. But here's a thing that we all have to realize now all the things that the progresses want, attacks and fund are actually being done by private corporations. And I think we just have to acknowledge that and make a decision about whether as a society that's okay or not.

I'll give you two examples. Number one is the federal minimum wage. We have tried for years and we have debated raising this minimum wage.

IT still sits today at seven dollars and twenty five cents just this week. McDonald ve, their minimum wage up. Starbucks move their minimum wage up.

We're talking about, you know, entry level quick service jobs that now pay seventeen to twenty five dollars per hour, right? So two and a half, three plus times the proposed federal minimum wage. And so what government didn't and wasn't able to do, the free markets have done.

Second example, we tried to get free community college inside of one of these bills. I was a drops now depending on where you go, the the nation's largest employer, amazon, actually we'll just pay you to go to college, right? So they are replacing that intention and the version of the G I.

Bill, but as a private organza. So I think what we also have to realize is that maybe some of these policy decisions is actually a little bit of, you know, getting tilted by the fact that private org ization are acting more nimbly to actually implement this progressive agenda because IT actually exists in america. You're willing to take the time to look.

Let me be a good question about inflation if who is inflation going to um hurt the most and who's going to gain the most from me? Because he does seem like consumers gas station, you know a supermarket trips, eta are going through the roof in that case, you know that can have no impact on the top thirty of people because go on a milk at three, six, nine dollars doesn't matter.

But then you look at inflation on stocks, it's going to make a go up. So a rich person isn't impacted by their gas or their groceries, but somebody in the middle class or uh who's poor, that's gna dramatically impact them. So if we spend more, does that actually create a larger wealth gap?

sex. Look, inflation is devastating for the middle class. Um if you have savings and if you can afford to put in all your savings of financial assets the way that the super wealthy can, then your financial assets will go up.

But if you have a good you sort of middle class income and you don't have your in your savings or in something more conservative, you're going to get absolutely eroded by inflation over time. Is gonna ill you and the housing Prices will go up. The the middle class Young couple that wants to buy house for the first time, that's going to be much hard to achieve because housing Prices will inflate away. So I think you know there is there are some effects or a wash up, for example, Prices go up and then h wages go up at the same time, but savings can really get hammered if you're not in financial assets.

IT hurts middle class first, but IT also hurts. I hurts everybody because again, unless you're perfectly hedged going into a rising rate environment.

assets that you are, we starting to go into a self fulfilling propac's around inflation. How what happened in the which is we've been talking about IT so much than anybody who is thinking about raising Prices, says, well, everybody else is raising Prices. So even if my girl chee sandwich hasn't been impacted by all of this and I didn't have to give races to my employees, they are happy at the is always going to put two dollars on my girl cheese. And we just get the cycle of everybody saying, how much can I add to the cost of something.

I am trying to remember there's an earnings. Uh interview I saw yesterday, uh god, what was the company anyway? There are the company in the industrial supply chain and he said that there are raising rates to get ahead of the supply costs going up for them um so that their margins won't get squeeze.

And I think that's uh, it's almost like that what you're referencing is a little bit of run on the bank mentality. Where are those with the pricing power raise raise Prices. And as a result, you end up kind of seeing the the the trickling effect because competition can catch up.

So if everyone kind of raising rates and not enough competitive, the damage, the one that's making this even harder right now, the gloves and the supply chain, which are reducing the competitive um uh market dynamics that we might Normally see where one customer raises one company raises rates and another company says weight, our rates are going to stay the same. But because so many people are chAllenged by getting product, there's enough demand for their product, everyone can raise rates together. We're seeing this in the energy markets now.

So um yeah I mean this is kind of part of the scary uh scenario that everyone is trying to manage against. Um I don't know what the scientists and i'm not an economist but uh IT certainly seems to me like the psychology of managers and business owners and and boards is such that they're saying let's get ahead of the curve, let's raise rates and as a result, you're seeing the trickling effect of inflation and throughout the whole economy. So um is cary sex.

what do you think psychologically is going on with raising Prices? So so execrations .

are definitely part of the inflation game. People raise Prices if they expect inflation in the near future. And then that feeds on a often. That's how if you look at countries, we've had hyperinflation, that's how you get a spiral. Now I don't think we can have hyper inflation here, but where at five point one percent now and if people think it's can be worse next year and the feds not going to raise rates, IT could even be higher next year. And I think people going to start getting upset about this, you know, when they buy their thanksgiving turkey and their Christmas ham and those Prices are way hardly think and they are ready paying gas Prices, there are a lot higher than they're used to. Um I think you could see a lot of unhappiness out there.

One of the thing i'm thinking about is, is the logical thing for a person to do in this hyper inflationary, you know, market is to say, you know what this, I went to look at a car and I wanted to get to drive the snow. And I was like, you know what, i'm just gna hold off buying this because i'm not paying fifteen care over seker. So and I can pay fifteen years as do I want to do that are the other cards OK just puts no tires on IT. So are a lot of people to more than as part of the psychological you know spiring out of control situation. Then some group of people might say, you know, i'm going to opt out of consumerism, and i'm just going to lower my body and stop consuming.

which is also bad summer food.

These two question, instead of getting you flaming yon, you might get chicken.

okay? Well, there will be a lot of unhappy people who are eating chicken for Christmas.

Instead of play, I mean, serious. Welcome to your house. Play good. I'm going to go your house for lunch and I go to mates for .

the surf and turf atis. Rich people don't create inflation. The middle class and lower or middle class create inflation there just not enough people to matter. They're irrelevant.

So when you look at the last two or three Spikes and waves of risk that we've seen globally, they've come from large one hundred million person cowards of people, right? Those could be in asia, those could be specifically in china, those could be in united states, plus all around the world, because of certain loose monetary conditions. That's what we had.

now. We have a multi hundred million, probably approaching more than a billion person, strong liquid buying pool of people that are, again, as I said, if the if the lowest on the packing order is now making seventeen box an hour. We all know this guys.

It's not as if the inflation stops at fifty thousand box year. Everybody's wages rise. So consistent and persistent wage inflation will allow you to spend more cautious for people.

Do we also have high savings rates of people feel more flush with money to point is that everybody will spend, they will spend more. You know, you can't get cars. You can't get this.

You can't get that all this pent of demand will get fed. And the downstream implication is I think that Prices will rise, but I will this proportionally hurt the middle class in the lower middle class. And then these asset bubbles will probably deflate or they'll have to get rated. And if the fed stops tapering and you know hikes rates two or three times over the next twelve or eighteen months, man, this isn't ugly, ugly, uh, stock market.

One of the things people have been asking me to ask all of us on the pot is what are our strategies right now given the turmoil we're in? So maybe go around the horn and what we're thinking about in terms of our strategies to deal with inflation while maybe not getting ahead of our skies and being the bag holders, anybody have i'm not not to answer I am not .

to answer this question. And you you know why? Because I can't got IT OK because of the public. I I don't want even answer this question yet.

Okay, well, you can. I me further described the the problem. So this happened in the late one thousand hundred and seventies. We had stack flame. We had sort of every year we had um increasing inflation because the game and the thing that broke IT was you had paul ker comment with the fed and he jacked up interest rates and um he actually caused a pretty severe recession in like eighty thing is like eighty two, eighty one, eighty two I think by eighty three we are coming out of IT and then the economy absolutely booed.

Interest rates came way down because he broke the back of inflation and actually interest rates came down for you as a result of worker in the fact controlling inflation. They came down for forty, forty years, basically. And that those that decrease in interest rates fuelled everything and made dead a lot cheaper IT IT made the stock market boom because the that present value, the discount rate went down the that present value of all those future earnings went up.

Um so you had IT set the stage for the boom in the regan era and beyond in the clinic a as well. Now what's the different stream that are now um well, for one thing, the government debt as a percentage GDP when reagan took office was around thirty one percent. okay? So when worker jacked up interest rates, IT didn't really create that much more of debt service costs for the united states, for the federal government.

Now today the the government debt uh is one hundred and twenty five percent of GDP。 So if and this goes back to the to the drug millar point from previous pot, if the the fed were to jack up interest strates to say the historical Normal four point nine percent debt service will go from two percent of the federal budget to thirty percent, you would have a massive crowding out of government programs. So how we fund all that debt service? Very unclear.

So we're called between a rock and a hartless. The rock is we have inflation that could be persistent, the hard places, the debt service. So, you know the tools for controlling this are not exactly clear.

So this, I think, is fundamentally that the problem is it's not clear whether we're going to have you know industry tes going up or persistent high inflation. Those are the threats to the sort of economic boom we're seeing now the full of IT. Is that the reason why the stock mark is one of the reasons is that in all time highest because earnings, right, our fantastic.

So the economy is doing very the companies are doing very well. But we just had for q three, the GDP growth was at two percent and alizad, which was sort of an anemic number. It's allow this has been since this covered recovery started.

So it's it's interesting where at all time hives, but there's also these like major storm clouds on the rising. And i'm not going to like pretend like I know what's going to happen. I just you when things are this good, I start getting nervous when it's this easy to make money across everything, the stock market, the cypher market, the SaaS investing we're doing so .

that that's .

the part that release cares me. So for example, when everybody gets tilted because there's some shiba wallet where eight thousand turns into five point seven billion, right? So for those that don't know, there was a you know SHE but inu coin, which is a shit coin, which was basically there to ape.

Uh the other ship .

coin 都是 going the doge right a mean coin。 Um all of a sudden sun guy uh thirty months ago put A K into IT because the whole market cap was a decay and then all of a sudden over the course of these four hundred days that wallet holds five point seven billion dollars of value or ten percent, the entire market cap of shiba um people get tilted by that then.

Then there was an article today in bloomberg where there is a gentleman and sixty six year old man in singapore who's a billionaire, right? So he was successful, his own right. However, he had made in his entire career about one or two billion, and he has made seven billion in the last two years speculating on tesla call options.

I'm not kidding. So buying short dated calls, right? Writing the, writing the wave, making money, allocating the gains, buying the underlying test, secure over and over and over again. And so, you know, I was talking to net about this and I was telling her these these examples, and she's like that's what sounds like a bubble because IT really is very difficult to be in business and to make these decisions .

and to be reason. If you are capital allocators or your building companies, like how do you know if you're doing a good job? If everybody just is I like I.

I have to have to do the 歌曲。 Yeah.

OK got a quick baby change.

I think what's hard about this is okay. So so one of the areas where sort of like best times ever or is the sas market, which is where I invest in and I am obviously investing in very, very early teach companies, but we're seeing valuations now ago to multiples of A R that we've never seen before. Fifty five.

I would say one hundred times.

I would say hundred times. A R S, sort of the rule thumb right now.

And what scale a five million dollar companies worth five hundred .

million ah anywhere from one million to ten million I mean .

worth between a in a billion dollars which no sense .

well no IT does if well make you the argument for why could make sense. Okay, let's say the company is expected to go three point three x this year and three x next year. That's basically a ten x over the next two two years.

To that one hundred x in two years will only be at ten times, err multiple. And by the way, if you look at the comp for the companies that have gone public, the accommodation public, like look at toast being worth with thirty, forty billion. So they're trading at thirty, forty, fifty, sixty times r in the public markets on big, big number.

So but how hard is IT to go? Three x, three x, that is. And me going three x is hard, going three x, three x back to back. That's like winning to, you know, N, B, A championships.

being in the final. It's alright.

not for you, but you're the king of us. I know i'm being get serious for A A sex fan with a million to go from one to three and the three and nine. How many out of a hundred actually go .

from one tonight? Yeah ductor. And this is, this is over a decade old.

We went from one million in our first full year selling the product to well, back in those days, we looked at total contract five or seven million of tcv, about five million of A R. And then IT IT tripled the year after that. So you know, and then we tripled the year .

after that well, category defining .

SaaS companies. So i'm saying that is entirely possible. There's a lot more yeah ers today or companies that growth trajectory. So I mean, but look, this is what's LED to you are fun to which we started investing in two thousand and nineteen, which has a set focus, already has five uniforms in IT from companies that we invested in the city.

So but look, I mean, when you're seeing like results that good, where my head goes is okay, this is too good. You know, what am I missing here? Like what's the downside and how long will this?

Well, they just to build your just to build on your point, there are these businesses that have, I would say, interesting products that are growing well, but they may not actually be very important companies yet. They trade at enormous valuations. And then you have these companies that are just so superb, I am talking about microsoft, google, apple and facebook that now trade in many cases add some pretty deep discounts um to their intrinsic value.

But this is the sign of this history onic behavior that I think um embellishes the end of a bubble, right? It's the thing where you look at a growth rate and you don't even ask the structural questions about business quality, viability, sustainability, competitive motes. You're like, oh, well, it's going from three hundred percent.

It's only to came to two hundred percent. I buy well, like payables, what are you buying? And is there any longevity and staying power? This is why, you know, I think there are some great businesses in SaaS, but I also think there's a lot of head fakes.

And in the public markets, particularly, people just wants to buy that growth, as David said, because they're chasing yield. They're not, you know, do they really understand, am I buying this company? Because I really believe in this database technology versus that streaming technology versus this container technology. They don't know any of those things.

Well, so so this is the canon. Me as I actually do believe like so I believe my own portfolio and i'm down all these companies and I do believe in SaaS. And I think the reason why these ash companies get such great multiples is because their peer software businesses very high gross margins, eighty percent plus gross margins.

Once the fly will gets going, they're very hard to display. I mean, they have is not just a recurring revenue suggestion type business, but you get expansion at your current customer base. So you know on january first of a new year, you're starting with one hundred and twenty percent, one hundred and fifty percent of last year revenue.

Just show me your existing customers and then you're stacking the new revenue courts on top of that. So I am a believer in SaaS bo. When I see everything going so well, it's SaaS and nash and S P and crypto and then I see one hundred twenty five percent data GDP and the the sort of radical a spending this coming out of washington.

I just start getting nervous and I don't know if I have like a prescription for people out there. I would just be a little bit cautious right now and temporary enthusiasm. But but look, the full side that is we could keep having a boom for five more years, you know.

And so the money we going for five .

more years, yes, you can turn out, you can on I was just sing of any linguam show on beat on calling it's called cyp tom use no no he and sunday modern do a great show that just got twenty five pips you I saw all listen .

to the show corcyra um using they .

were talking about all the the dog coins the other night IT was shippe u and dog coin and there's a couple of others vini made a great point he said listening if you're after listening and you're sitting on life changing money and SHE but you know sell take that off the table if you can. Key words being if you can. So look, you know, this boom could last for another five years ago, last another ten years. And the value valuation keep going up, the earnings keep going. You don't anna miss out on that bull run, but if you've got life changing money in in a highly risky position.

that's not everybody .

I amending my advice of let your winners right to take some take some chips off the table prudently doesn't mean you sell everything. But this take some chips .

off the table to diverse.

diverse .

absolutely saw .

these court earnings. There is no Better business in the world than google single handedly par, the most incredible money making machine that's ever been created. And a close second, as IT turns out, is microsoft. unbelievable. I mean, just which is now the most valuable company, the world greater .

than apple and free works and saying this on the pockets forever. But just to give people an idea, q the revenue google was up forty one percent year over year to sixty five billion dollars in a quarter.

Gin be incremental revenue on the core google product uh generated increment Operated incremental fifty percent eba margin. And they just adJusting the the capex appreciation emotiv ation schedule because they realized that their computers that they use in their data centers last four years instead of three and the network equipment last five years instead three.

So they're like and and i've been saying this since of the beginning, because I worked at google and earth is still there, and he runs all the data centers in the networking infrastructure, and I worked a google. There was this amazing project where we built a tempt out. We didn't built.

They built IT a ten thousand port switch called firehose which helped increase the output of the data center and have these massively paralyze indexing and um uh and uh and production servers um and there is so much investment made from the beginning and building the infrastructure stack. The fly wheel continues to move spin faster and faster and faster. And here they are building their own servers, building their own rx, their own data centers, literally the most they have their own fiber across the oceans um literally the most verdict integrated business in history with the mote that no one will ever be able to catch up on.

I read all these nonsense comments on the internet. People being like, why does someone go after search is so crazy to me? People fail to recognize that what we see is the tip of the ice bar, get google, and this fly wheel is built by layers and layers of monopolistic in a good way, monopolising technical that they've built into this business over the period of the past two decades.

And IT is extraordinary beyond anything we've ever seen in human history, how well as commercial enterprises run and the reinvestment of capital has been extraordinary. This if you look at youtube in the quarter, uh youtube this is incentive. Youtube is now Operating in a nearly thirty billion dollar revenue run rate and that's just like pure margin incremental revenue for google layered on um you built off of the sad add network are that they originally running on google obviously have A A different ad team now at youtube.

But youtube now has more revenue than netflix and is growing at likely forty to sixty percent year over year revenue growth rate. Where is netflix is you know considered one of the fang stocks, you know one of the top stocks. And netflix, uh.

growing a twenty of netflix and just put google twice. This should be.

And then you look at google class.

youtube there on and google .

cloud is now Operating at a twenty billion of the run, right? And you know they can just throw these services on top of um all these fly whales that they built and they become massive enterprises until themselves. I mean, IT is a that is effectively not attacks in a bad way, but attacks on the internet because they are core infrastructure of service, almost everything that we all consume and use internet smart about competitive pricing. As we saw recently, they drop the commission in the place store to fifteen percent. If i'm making an APP and i'm giving apple thirty percent now I give google fifty percent, i'm more inclined to promote my android APP and that's going affect users and they are putting up a pixel six phone that looks like an incredible .

piece of equipment that's cheaper than an incredible company. They are so incredibly well run at the top soon is an incredible CEO um and they are they running a money printing past uh at empathize park in in mountain view. I was onna say Jason, to your point, I was talking to somebody.

And one really interesting thing that this organization did was um a couple of years ago, they basically went long google and microsoft and they shorted apple, amazon and facebook against IT. And I asked them why and they said it's the best inflation hedge. We could come up with a massive scale that could work in away where you know we're long growth but were hedged where you know the types of supply constraints that could come in. And you know, kickers india would never affect microsoft and google, the same way that I would affect apple and amazon, which, by the way, in their earnings results, they said, right, amazon has huge issues on the supply chain side. Apple has huge issues on the .

supply chain side. Amazon was up fifteen percent. They miss their numbers, although amazon web services is a forty percent year over year, also on a big.

Number sixteen, billion dollars in A W S. Revenue for q three. So that as a stand alone company is what .

do what do you guys think about that?

Oh my god. I mean, that was, did you watch the video? I watched the holding. I watched two .

minutes of IT and then I stopped watch.

I mean, it's basically you you have facebook in the face of all of the things, all of the times they got their hand, caught the cookie jar saying this is going to be the new world.

But instead of us doing everything wrong and screwing the users and their privacy and democracy and creating strife in the world, this time we're going to make IT open source, this time we're going to build a coalition and partnership, and this time it's gonna awesome. And it's it's like a disown, an S N L, where ZARA burger is described in the future. And he literally describes how proud he is that you going to be able to play grand, deft auto.

And nick flag is like, yeah, this is going to be amazing. This time. We're going to bring all the regulators and the scientists in to tell us how to build IT and will have consensus of how to build the future. And you're like you to say that everybody in three day is going to be in a virtual space beating each other up with bats and guns and killing police officers and grand, deft auto. Luckily, they didn't show a clip of IT, but I was basically sucker r taking credit for every single a virtual reality or augmented reality thing you've seen over the last twenty years.

He literally took everything from education to hollow lands to, you know, poker games, and he took basically credit that this is gonna the future in that instead of this time at being a close ecosystem that would be open, one that supports nf. And don't worry, this time, I think any developer who puts any amount of their effort into supporting in any way sucker berg view of the universe is crazy when they could do IT on a distributed, decentralized, cyp to bed open source platform. You do not want to give october any more power. And if there is even a ten or twenty percent change that this is the next big computer platform, zuker bird needs to be stopped from doing IT by the market.

I think you're crazy. I think you want to buy.

I haven't yeah .

I think for my oh my god, I have a counter argument to OK David, do start .

categorized. Remember to say, as a counter argument, I don't even know how to counter that. All I would say .

in sending.

all I would say is, look, I think it's really great that facebook is spending all this R N D money on metaphor, virtual reality. Oculus is a really cool product. I think, Jason, you read the observation that people use IT once, say, is a cool thing ever.

Never use IT again. There is that elephant to IT. They have to solve that. Using ocs for the first time was one of the most unique experiences have ever had with computing. But I admit I don't use IT any more.

Is not me Better or worse than porn .

hub the .

first time? But I event look, I think I think the first.

the fact that is .

one thing .

more I think that .

the fact that facebook wants to do all this R N D and virtual ality great um changing them with the company. However, at this point time IT felt to me like a little bit like filmore changing the name to altria group. And by the way, I don't buy the idea that facebook like cigarettes. I don't believe that at all. I don't think it's it's bad for people in the way that it's been hyped up to be.

You saying this .

is A P R market, but IT feels like they're running from their name. And and basically, it's almost like saying, you know, this whole business of social networking has been so solid that we need to appear to be a diversified portfolio of companies of which social networking is .

just one small piece deprecating .

peace yeah exactly. I I really buy into that. And I I think if that was any part of their motivation, it's a mistake.

I think the only thing facebook should do about all these accusations is get up on our legs and fight because I think like all these these leaks from the so called White le blow, or I think this is a complete the orchestrated political hit, and they should just fight back and push back on IT. I think the dangerous of social networking have been vastly exaggerated. So IT seems to me like they're buying into that nonsense by running from their name.

So I at least would not have done this right now. I would have won that battle. And then if he was still important to change their name, then I want to changed the name.

They're losing Young people at an extradition rate. On facebook. U. S. Teenagers were projected to decrease by forty five percent over the next two years, Young adults between the ages of twenty and were expected to define by four percent. Or tiktok, I think.

is ably more yeah tiktok .

is ah ah during the same time for violations.

E by way, I mean, how in the world is facebook or instagram more dangerous than tiktok? I don't get.

No, dick tok is strange, which, but by the way, are stand making. Our Henry belcour of tiktok is reporting that we have, like millions of views over there.

So there are some rope. How much? G.

I.

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游戏。

the k tok account. There's an all in tiktok at account done by a fan. We got like two million user last week. IT is .

absolutely bark. We just pass reach about .

a bunch of folks.

You are more power than all S B, C enchant k freeburg to you .

together. Remember a year ago, Larry ellison negotiates a deal with dropped .

to buy tech tok for, yeah, he's tomorrow in the night.

Freeburg is. Son was.

yeah, that's, by the way 啊 SHE shake ping is on the night right now。 And Larry ellison got tick to your trade.

Nobody talks about the Billy that, uh, alson kicked into tesla .

right .

before a such a boss. B billion.

fifteen fifteen spaceships on a drones ship in middle of ocean. What you figured out, he will figured IT out 1。

But I have one crush for freeburg is sucker berg pulling a Larry page. I somebody else become C E O of the facebook collection of companies and then he becomes the ship product officer and then doesn't have to go to senate hearings.

No, I think he's way more active and grim in terms of product direction, and Larry ever was. So I don't think they're the same person and I wouldn't like a need to .

what about the meta strategy of change in the company?

Um by the way, my prediction was that they were I shall have done this on the pod a month ago. I said they were going to change. I need to Better. H I think that uh at some point as you diversify these businesses um away from your core and you have this core engine and driving the business, um you know you have to make IT look like these businesses can and will Operate independently while they might get some leverage off of one another and one my feed into the other.

Um they need to be able to Operate independently from a kind of public perception, bring a management perspective that the alphabet did at a natural progression of states as you start to do things that are too far distinguished from one another. Um and so IT feels reasonable I think, you know is this a whole like P R rebranding? Maybe to some extent that's helpful. But I do think that this idea that we need to do more than we're doing today and we need to make a big, hard cold bet on IT um is what this represents.

Now the the important psychological question is he doing IT out of a matter of defense, meaning like does this signal fear about the core business um or is IT about ambition and aggression and and rebels on a new opportunities and emerging opportunities that he thinks that of? The big debate that I think is kind of going on right now is how much often when you see people make big moves like this, it's either of greed or out of fear. And I think um some people are asking the question, how much should we be afraid of the core business being eroded based on his making the sort of a big bed?

You think this could perpetuate that or it's a bit of a tale about this is happening.

I tell a guy, right? I'm not saying that the question, people, king, is this hotel that the core business is at serious risk.

Why did he's putting ten billion into IT this year?

For example, this apple add revenue business, I think, is climbing by billions of dollars, while facebook core business is being affected by the the cookie tracking policy change on apple IOS. Uh so at the same time that you know apples reaping these benefits from the changes of they have made uh in I O S, you know people don't really have great visibility and to how much is really affecting facebook add revenue this point. And this could be, as you point out, to tell um that maybe things aren't good and he needs to diversify. He needs to make a big aggressive bad elsewhere so um you know .

we will see I mean important question tomorrow that we're onna celebrate the birth of both r and three birds daughters with a talk again with my gambling do you to give .

you my thoughts on that?

You don't know what's can you take a paterson to go to?

Uh.

I for the queen of kwa.

way way we tell you, want to know what? I think I think on the matter thing, I think the the risk is if google and apple take the hard work costs to zero because I think there's an incentive in a highly fragmented ecosystem. If remember, when apple introduced the iphone, there was nothing that came before IT.

So IT was completely ground breaking. And I think what facebook has to figure out is how to make their VR experience so revolutionary that IT attracts developers. And in the meantime, if apple and google figure out how to kind of give IT away for free and just kind of make IT a low cost hardware game where everything else Jessen, as you says, this kind of open source thing works like a browser, yeah, right? Where everything just exist in A D five kind .

of world like the web and the internet.

Then then it's a little bit more problematic for all the money spent.

That's what they have to figure. Do you think it's gonna be V, R or r? What wins the day with consumers? Well.

it's a good question. I mean, they're very different experiences.

Both can win, but win.

win what I think years or now, which one will be used more or ten years, ten to twenty years or now, which one will make more money, be more relevant, be more beautiful?

I mean, A R the dream there is that you are these glasses that have like the terminator view where like scanning the world and giving information, you'll never forget one's named again, stuff like that um that would be kind of useful maybe. Um V R I think is more about emersion. It's really like a gaming experience. I think at least .

now I think it's all that are basically what he was saying there he was about V R. I think V R let you make the world and then A R let you experience them concurrently with the real world. And it's the same tools and libraries and kids as a developer, making up for vrar is going to be pretty, I think, seamless.

And so I think apple skipped the V R on purpose and they're going to A R. I think google is basically gonna go directly to A R. And then where does that leave? And then microsoft, ity has holland.

So they ve been investing in heavily. And they think they got the bigger lead, at least we publicly know about. So I thinks there can be a race for who can not get A R to work. And V, R is just like kind of a way point on the way there.

There's a lot of stuff going on, and i'm i'm sure that people will want to check out of the real world for some amount of their life. But the problem we also wanted be in the real world for some part of their life. And at some point, maybe of those two things merged that distinction, what matters as much? And I think if the experience is compelling enough, you can happen.

What mean if you think about us playing poker on the poker, one of those poker apps, if we could put our glasses on, sit in our room and see each other at a poker table, you know, like if bog, I wanted to play from australia and was, you know, projected into the sea on the game, and we all saw them very glasses, A R glasses. That would be amazing when IT be able to, you know, have two of the people at the game be projected in as IT were could be, especially with the ago.

I mean, I thought before the great, I mean, for the object of the group of the game, I I did a tweet where I said this in VR people leave IT on the shelf and you know pm, a lucky in a bunch of people got in my face about IT and then we have a actually really good discussion um and I said, what what about serious gamers because i'm talking about serious gamers they all buy IT and then they never use that they said as gamers they said, okay, what about ipad gamers and casual gamers and do and Candy crush like, oh, they're not interested in IT who wear the game is that is that the intense ones or the casual ones? They said there is a new category. The number one game like rec room beat saber or and golf are like crashing IT.

Uh, with a million users a month. In some cases, you know, they all have in common their physical activities. We get some amount of exercise and IT would be very difficult to cordiner world.

I know about Jason when you look at things like like aci infinity, where you know they are player earn movements that are happening in in sort of this layer three kind of defy world where you're getting paid to basically you know play games that could be a job and then you will spend eight to ten hours in the metaverse of song sort so these things are very possible.

I find IT. So this option um .

that's true, but i'm sure that our parents find some parts of our life media, you know we find certain parts of our kids lives this topic and it's just what that happens.

Yeah, I don't know.

right? everybody. We will play poker.

We will play poker. And I play poker at point.

We play poker either either tuesday or thursday.

okay? Yeah, get perfect babies. Be almost.

Which days are you? Gonna lake.

tuesday and which day will you? Flink, tuesday and thursday.

Thurso.

you have to come pick you up.

I can play on tuesday.

Worry everybody for the queen of kwai, the rain man and the dictator. I'm jessy. How can will see you all and the that things? Rainman give.

We open sources to the fans .

and got crazy.

Sexual and to released.