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cover of episode E59: Twitter's content warning algo, equity audits, politicians trading stocks, Fed's next move, mRNA & more

E59: Twitter's content warning algo, equity audits, politicians trading stocks, Fed's next move, mRNA & more

2021/12/17
logo of podcast All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

AI Deep Dive AI Chapters Transcript
People
B
Bari Weiss
C
Chamath Palihapitiya
以深刻的投资见解和社会资本主义理念而闻名的风险投资家和企业家。
D
David Sacks
一位在房地产法和技术政策领域都有影响力的律师和学者。
Topics
Chamath Palihapitiya:Twitter 的新内容警告算法可能存在问题,它可能会错误地标记一些不具有攻击性的推文。算法可能是机器学习的结果,也可能是人工审核的结果。这可能是一种被动攻击的方式,用来压制不同意见。社交网络应该更加透明地公开其算法的工作原理,因为算法正在影响公众舆论。民主党人提议对科技公司进行种族公平审计,这可能会对科技公司的产品开发产生重大影响。 David Sacks:很难构建一个算法来准确判断哪些言论应该被标记为警告。社交媒体平台的算法正在影响公众舆论,社交网络应该更加透明地公开其算法的工作原理。种族公平审计可能会像微软当年的反垄断诉讼一样,对公司产品开发造成限制。所谓的种族公平审计实际上是由政治活动家进行的,其标准并非客观公正。种族公平审计缺乏明确的标准和原则,公司必须服从审计者的主观意见。“公平”一词在政治语境中经常被用来掩盖权力争夺。如果民主党人真的想要实施某些政策,他们应该直接提出法案,而不是通过施压公司来实现。民主党人使用“种族公平审计”等术语来掩盖其权力攫取的意图。当政治框架使用“公平”来创造更多公平时,结果往往很糟糕。比起追求结果的平等,更应该追求机会的平等。 Bari Weiss:金融科技公司可能会因为政治立场而拒绝为某些客户提供服务。当政客使用“公平”一词时,通常意味着他们试图攫取权力。Square 公司的 Cash App 成功地帮助了城市社区的居民改善财务状况。 Chamath Palihapitiya: Twitter's new content warning algorithm may be problematic, as it may incorrectly flag non-offensive tweets. The algorithm may be the result of machine learning or manual review. It may be a passive-aggressive way to suppress dissenting opinions. Social networks should be more transparent about how their algorithms work, as algorithms are influencing public opinion. Democrats are proposing racial equity audits of tech companies, which could have a significant impact on product development. David Sacks: It's difficult to build an algorithm that accurately determines which statements should be flagged as warnings. Social media platform algorithms are influencing public opinion, and social networks should be more transparent about how their algorithms work. Racial equity audits could be similar to Microsoft's antitrust lawsuit, restricting product development. So-called racial equity audits are actually conducted by political activists, and their standards are not objective and fair. Racial equity audits lack clear standards and principles, and companies must comply with the subjective opinions of auditors. The term "equity" is often used in political contexts to mask power grabs. If Democrats really want to implement certain policies, they should propose bills directly instead of pressuring companies. Democrats use terms like "racial equity audit" to mask their power-grabbing intentions. When political frameworks use "equity" to create more equity, the results are often bad. It's better to pursue equality of opportunity than equality of outcome. Bari Weiss: Fintech companies may refuse service to certain customers based on their political stances. When politicians use the word "equity," it usually means they're trying to grab power. Square's Cash App has successfully helped urban communities improve their financial situations.

Deep Dive

Chapters
The discussion explores the impact of Twitter's content warning algorithm on free speech and user interactions. The hosts debate whether the algorithm is machine-learned or human-edited and its implications for transparency.
  • David Sacks' tweet was flagged by Twitter's content warning algorithm.
  • The hosts discuss whether the flagging is algorithmic or editorial.
  • Concerns are raised about transparency and the potential for bias in algorithmic moderation.

Shownotes Transcript

Translations:
中文

Let's talk about the sweers. Okay, David, let's start with you. Because I love you. I love IT, David.

I love set up my swear game for china.

This is time ford. Love IT time ford.

The buttons are made out of endanged right on horn.

Just was the third .

of the auto so my sweater is a very light italian cashmere made by a company called dora ani dyan ani. Um I got work .

to plug for that. We're model .

zing the .

all in pod during our dan cashman .

just got to find Young cafe leather, very soft, very soft and the buttons, uh, like David, uh, are made from sharkfin.

And for those of you at home who would like to spend one hundred and fifty dollars and stay warm, may I recommend the marine layer you can find in the union street jacket?

I mean.

how how touch street.

how well to this .

sweater, listening to this weather, caring if you're listened reveal.

I got back to me and he .

was like, oh.

goss Brown so I jake comes on less .

than I kid you you out. She's like you. I I don't like you in the t shirt. Uh I got yet some sweaters and because you never going to the mountains for for the holiday and I was like, did you watch the pocket about this what you sign I don't into your pocket.

I like okay, for enough um and i'm like i'm looking at these things, these boxes and unit sweater. What did you spend on SHE said, three thousand dollars. I am not comfortable spending three .

thousand dollars on a sweater.

Eight of yet. Mah is like this also sleeve.

Four buttons on a waste.

but that might be for .

I think that's the box. This matter came in with three thousand. So I got my three quotes and i'm feeling good. I feel really.

We open sources to the fans .

and just got. Everybody, everybody, welcome to me podcast yes, breaking into the top fifty podcast week after week because of you the amazing audience telling .

your friends about the two weeks so it's weak .

and week .

we after I said we after week week .

a week we .

weekend week two weeks the top forty podcast episodes in the world. Thanks the fans with me, of course, the dictor himself in A A amazing sweater.

light, light cashmere.

The salt of science I found out from his mom. SHE much prefers the sault in of science to queen also. So that were gone with gone ford. David freeburg, who had a great party up in bed and I really enjoy going. And sax, who didn't go to beat party or to freedman g party, he stayed home and play chess on his iphone, the rain man himself to his sacks. Welcome to the part, everybody.

Okay.

you want me to new york? My one. True, but Jason cai, I I really .

wanted to come, but not press feeding. And so I couldn't come.

The hell pad was shut down to, I couldn't land.

and you're going.

There was was their current through, oh no IT was this great show called after life from wicky chavez. There's literally a scene in IT where a woman they work for a local newspaper that's going out of business and they're going to do local stories. And the big story in town is a woman is making putting, incredibly delicious putting, and it's from her breast milk. They go and cover the story. Anyway, i'll just believe that that is pretty amazing story.

Do you want to know my two new york stories or not?

Yeah, let's here. What would you say had .

a helicopter story with helicity helicopters, also in new york story. So, uh, I went to deep deal to play golf with a certain well known individual and uh reach upper, reach upper back a finance individual well on on a rock .

roller to step the helicopter with.

So not that big. So so here's my story, which is why I, I, I totally freed out about helicopters. And I can't.

This is eight years ago, we played deep tail, which is just in or outside new york, getting this, the chopper lands in the middle thing. I was like, okay, that's fine, you know, and we're going and i'm already feeling kind of scared. Shuttle, like helicopters get to the side.

Hello, port. And his side helicon is basically right by the east river. And so the helicopter dissents. And one of the skies doesn't actually land on the fucking thing. And so IT does a little tilt poop s and then the guy comes back up and then he lands you. I honestly like, I have never been more scared in my life.

and I was like, happy band. Everyone, any best is is a busy band for life, for making a pack here.

Nobody is crazy. So that's my new york area. Last new york was, I was there two days ago for the glass couple days in the middle, in the middle of this army con break out, uh, by the way, had a beautiful dinner.

Uh, after the game. Dream on, Kevin, read me bunch of friends. Did you go to again? now? We went to the private room. Carbon IT was so brutal, though I will tell you, I feel so disgusting with myself. I had a work dinner and I have sushi at the work dinner.

And then, you know, jay text after the game, he's like kate all having dinner, a carbon I said, okay, I i'll had through. I went to the hotel. I called matter.

I said, i'm brushing my teeth and he said, but you're going out I said, yes, but if I brush my teeth, i'm not going to eat a second dinner dinner. And I thought, you know and then, but I made mistake, but I didn't flows. So I was unflawed.

I brush my teeth. O, K. I show up and forking, I lose IT and wine and dessert and breast IT was really brutal. And by three A M, I stumble home, and I felt so back as I to wake up at, like, you know, eight o'clock in the morning of my first meeting .

is a seven forty five congratulation system.

incredible. No.

he said he's a virtually anything that was my.

that was my new york's story. I gained, here's my, here's my one kilo. I gained one kilo. Two point two pounds .

gained in two days. Here's my car bone story. Hardest thing to the hardest reservation to get new york sax is like, check.

I'll need to help me a favor. What's the best place in new york to do closing dinner? And I got you.

I got my guy, get my guy on the horn. My guy, like, I got to carbon friday fucking night, eight o'clock harder. Take the new york know it's sexus go dark friday afternoon. One P M is like, yeah, we're not make. I'm like, my friend is like, jack hell, your guy burned the carbon reads.

That was the bird IPO. I was going to take the founder out to dinner that night at carbon. And then I turned into, like, the big group in, like.

thirty people so IT moved over to by the private room, which is like you know not in the but it's like a little bit on the side IT only fits like fifteen, twenty people. So it's not like you and .

that it's really tight question um what a stuff feel no stuff .

wasn't there. Dream on, seven me benefit moral but just a bunch.

said Kevin Kevin, Kevin duran still have family with .

a he's honest. He, he's such a great guy. I love Kevin. Super, super sensitive .

school he.

I think that when .

they had blow up, but was more like their brothers and we just a little .

bit like when you started talking like job shi, did the cavender an ever start talking about joe pesci?

Hey, it's like baseball, alright. H IT was an event for week on twitter. We're only one week into the new twitter. Co s rain jack is gone, and already David sax has been flags.

It's a guy can be a good that you are talking about them lagging accounts at the end of free speech at that pull IT up on the screen. everybody. Investors should be spending their time finding good investments, not endlessly debating interest strates, inflation and tax policy, but that's the uncertainty washington has created. Is a great tweet um I like that tweet actually and then the flag, the conversation from sexes and flagged some conversations can get heavy. Don't forget the human behind the screen.

Do you think that this is that machine learned? Or do you think that that's an editor that goes on there .

and .

actually shine uly flags?

What is in there that .

actually .

is .

debating washington .

trading policy? washington?

I'm not sure i'm not sure that you could .

build or mayo.

I I don't know how you would build a function that would wait this in a way where this could get flag of all the things you could say with those words.

This is so benee. I think it's the kind of IT seems to be the things kind award of bullying attacks on sex, which I don't think sex needs to be too worried about.

Oh, right, because you're telling this to people .

who would reply you to protect me.

It's to protect you. It's one of those things where they like try to get people have not insult you in the comments. Do you do you get a lot of insults in comments on your .

tweet oudry? But this tweet, common secure was prebends alright.

there may not be about the treat IT .

might be about the replies. So yash that hard this was in that T I think your mouth might be onto something. You know, my sheller got the same label around the same day for a tweet that seem told an ocular two. So what I wonder about is, you know, is, is able to protect us, or is there a way, is this for a passive aggressive way for snowflakes that twitter so like label people that don't like and sort of suggests are very ily disreputably?

I don't think it's that. I don't think it's it's a right. It's the left. One can space a the lives .

going after the.

The mute, the tony, a little bit across the the debating that happens on the comments that come across in the replies. And I think they're just going to get everyone .

to turn IT down a Better. I really before you, he'd be really interesting to know whether this was algorithm or editorial because I think if it's eats, al IT does actually, I don't think this is extreme, is what David is said. But excuse more in the realm of like people with an exotic de can flag one thing over another or not, right? But if it's a algorithm, I think that that allegorist m probably just needs a lot of tweaking because it's not anyway.

doesn't IT say that there's a person .

behind the tweet is like .

trying get people .

to .

not say her. Like now remember.

it's there to suggest that there might be something wrong with the content that's being posted. Well, in other words, in other words, the content is so trigger ing that you know that needs warning labels.

Do you guys think that preterm al ism has a role and social networks to try? And the the kind of discourse being two acrimonious, like I think we need some some of .

the transparency that jack orca repeatedly promised all the progressive al hearings. And when he gotto hold up there, he promised that they would give more transparency about the way that their algorithms worked. Where is that? IT hasn't been delivered up.

They promised IT. Now, jack jorce y skipped out of town, and there is a new guy in charge. Well, we need to know how these algorithms work because they are pressing their thumb on the scale of debate in the marketplace for ideas by suggesting that some ideas are sketcher than others.

They should just put here. This was algorithm ally done based. They should explain in under the early.

This should be a little question mark you have over the question mark based on the words in the thread. IT feels like things are getting heated here. We did this with an algorithm, or users reported this as a heated read. So we put this year or are you do we decided, but you wanted to be .

an open market place of ideas. But the fact is it's twitter's marketplace. Tes of ideas, facebook is facebook's marketplace of ideas. And at the end of the day, I don't you're going na get away from any of these centralized social networks having anything but some degree of moderation to play a role.

In a related thing, they didn't just target sacks, also chamakh, you didn't see this, but um they flag winning your tweets. Uh, just this afternoon. Let up.

You can see here. It's so slightly different. One says layers are for players. This conversation will drift to five thousand dollars sweater ter, so a big morning for tribes and for the people replying.

be careful. That must be, that must be. That must have been human.

One came, another one came in for profit. So and then in this case, I think they're actually trying to think about public good. This guy is for you, though, takes people would be amazon.

How many, how many hours of master classic photoshop did?

I didn't make these. My mean team did. I'm convinced that there are two ways to raise next fun in silicon valley.

One, have one of the top fifty pockets in the world, or two, have a strong mean game. And i'm going for both. Sax now has a warning on his and this one that put on your profile page is crazy.

warning this person's interesting things to say if if you're too interesting, you get label. Now it's really crazy. I saw jack. I saw jacco having too much fun with this. Like.

I got to get IT on this. You like, I need a mean to you. If anybody out there I don't care you, I need a comedian. I'm are going to pay on a paper meme, a paper viral, whatever IT takes. Okay, uh, in a related story, democrats on racial equity audits at tech companies according to the washing free beacon uh, which sacks trick me if i'm wrong that some sort of what you writing uh.

publication uh, okay.

washing free back again. If instituted, orders would have video power over every product or initiative. That's not an exaggeration, is what the story says. One proposal from house democrat would find companies twenty thousand a day for not completing by anyone independent racial equity audits, a left way nonprofit called color of changes pushing for these autists. Last week, their present call for independent auditors event new products from tech companies before the released in front of congress twenty eighteen color of change to actually push facebook into completing an audit, they call for more restrictions on transports could change itself, pushed for trump to be permanently banned from the platform just you know.

this is exactly the the rough version of what happened to microsoft in their D O J settlement. The antitrust settled was effectively and oversight where lawyers at the D O J, where the product managers and had not effectively veto right, but you have to approve product before you could push them for ten years. You know, this is essentially what caused bombers rain to be.

So you know, in your minutes is like you couldn't do anything because like you have you have a plan to do something and you'd have to go to these random folks who didn't really have the context to a, uh, uh, a decision one. Where are the other feature? So I mean, the idea that they would do this is a.

it's prety crazy. I need a point of clarification here. I've heard the term, uh, racial audit, or racial like to audit.

My understanding of those were to understand the composure of the company, uh, in terms of, you know the diversionary in the company. But this is something different in the product to make sure the product isn't racist. Can product be racist? What's example of a product being racist? I don't understand what they would find. Let me unpacked this for you.

okay? What they are basically saying is that these big companies and the, for example, have called on google to have conduct one of these audits. They want all these big companies conduct these audits. These so called auditors are actually political consoles who are members. That aircraft party who are friends of the centers are pushing for this, their political activists.

It's a graft and it's partly a griffin, but it's more than that because you when you could duck and audit, let us take this word audit for a second, okay, you bring in a big five accounting firm and they will check your numbers according to generally accepted accounting principles gap and make sure that the numbers are what you promoted them to be. That is the purpose of an audit. And if the auto ever says that you done anything wrong, like you have to fix that, there's no choice or you can appeal to another author and have them redo the work.

Okay, according to these generally accept to principles with an equity audit, what exactly are the principles that are being enforced? Checked here, there is no generally accepted list of equity principles that must be enforced. These companies, basically, you have to do whatever this poco activist tells you to do. I mean, it's essentially like bringing in a party commissar to now take over the company, or at least be inside the company. Telling the executive and office of the company what to do is something that, Frankly.

the ccp would do. IT does feel a little like, yeah, star zy, like didn't we have all the companies on their own, from twitter to google to facebook, release their own diversity stats years ago? I think this .

not more university. It's about equity. It's about equity. So so it's explain .

the difference in what that means. This is somehow how the companies run like the day life of the employees. They are not just the composure and the breakdown employees.

equity. Equity means anything that progressed to say that means we've seen on this programme before how equity has dumped the shark. There's now there is a provision in the infrastructural bill for tree equity. So I mean, really any disparity that occurs, that progresses, don't like can now be called a violation of equity. And this gives them the authorization ation to come in there and start giving orders .

is very weird that that I don't understand the product. Then review gets stopped as I meant to throat you from releasing product as Operative.

Let me give an example. So recently I wrote up a peace called the the no bye st, where I basically you had companies like paypal, these other financial firms return to deny service to customers, to users based on their political affiliations, and not just like people who are well known hate groups that, like everybody sort of the issues, wants to stay away from.

But these are people with timely, down the middle, conservative, conservative groups. And they were being denied service by fin tech firms. So now i'm not saying that this is what this means, but if this equity auditors tells you, i'll look, I don't think is equitable to allow these conservative groups to be a user of your product. Well, what's the company going to do there are you have to listen to that. And and that is applausive scenario given that is already occurred.

We thought we we said that so many times on the pod, but I just wanted say again for because I guess a lot of folks are new and listening whenever you hear equity used by a politician IT usually means there's a power grab involved yeah because if you really want things to be fair, you want things to be an equal y, you want equality. But whenever you starts throwing over the word equity around and say we want racial equity, it's a bunch of you know a small number of people who you know basically have and live by what I know what's often called luxury beliefs, who want to judge other people who want to be morally absolute. And then we want to basically like, uh, you know, exercise of power grab, and we have to push back on that stuff because IT is just a slippery.

slippery slope. But this also seems like overbearing red tape for companies. I mean, if the company has no problems, no complaints against that, no releases their diversity numbers, like what is the .

point of going? Let's let's use an example that builds on a David, let's take square. Okay, one one of the most incredible things that square did was in a hacked thon essentially build a cash up.

yeah. And one of the most incredible things that happened in the cash shop was that IT really started to blow up in urban communities. okay? And IT starts to Normalize banking, opening up bank accounts, having more savings.

Understanding you know an on rampant to crypto you know cash hap has probably done more to get black and Brown people into crypto o to save money and to understand they're cash than almost anybody else as as almost explicit strategy. And so is somebody supposed to go in there and just in arbitrary judge whether there is too many White people that work at square or not enough black people. And so X, Y, Z thing has to change, or such as such a feature doesn't actually speak to folks. So you can do IT. It's insanity.

It's also to to your your point, sex is what what the what do these people know like what is your qualification and what what works .

the goal right to build on to map point if these senators. So I think curry bucket is the one who proposed this. If these centers want those specific policies implemented in the fortune five hundred, let them pass a bill to do IT and let all of our elected representative vote on that bill. And then we can see if that really if it's popular enough to pass and whether IT passes constitutional al muster, they won't do that because these bills, if they were directly coca tizer.

what would be very unpopular.

So instead, what they do is tell you what, we're not going to do this directly. We're going to put russia on these big companies to hire one of our political friends, again, the like commas or like person, and empower them to tell these companies what to do. So it's it's really kind of insidious what they're doing and they're kind of covering all up with these nice sounding names. I mean, who could be against a racial equity audit, right? Because yes, if if you're against IT, you must be a racist and you must not believe in auditing companies.

This world again, you have to you just it's a word game. It's it's using words that are really loaded and mean a lot to a lot of us, right? If I hear racism and race, five years got it's not trigger ing.

But my years broke up and I have I have a lot of inbuilt opinions on IT that had been governed by forty five years as living as a as a Brown man. And so okay, IT stands to reason that i'm going to pay attention. But on the surface, if you say racial equity audit, IT also doesn't seem at all that that IT seems like reasonably banian.

And that seems like okay. Thing to do is just that most of us then stop at that point and move on, right? But if you actually look at the rules again, I would just say, whenever political frameworks use the word we to create more equity, the outcomes are horrible.

For example, look in healthcare, you know, if we have used this idea of health care equity, health equity, and we've missed used IT to such a degree, and all we see is that now the system is so perverted, IT also doesn't work for the majority of people that have actually had the health care system work for, right? Like at the top of the pecking order has always been White men. I've always gotten the best care.

And we've always measured our healthcare progress in amErica based on the longevity of men, White men, you know, seventy eight, seventy nine, eighty years old. And and then he started to degrade, and people are curious what was happening. And underneath at all was just a bunch of power grabs under the realm of vacuity.

We passed all these crazy laws. We basically didn't do anything to really create more accountability and a cosplay stem. And here we are.

So at some point, when the citizen rehear that word, you're gna have to put your thinking cap on and actually take the opposite of view, which is, hold on, this is a really nice sounding word. IT may not be what I think IT is. And I got to pay attention because more than if I .

didn't hear the word at all, anything have a race freeburg representing south .

africans. But I think .

about power point A, I know I had heard on the back channel that a lot of the people who are criticizing some big tech companies who were getting you, i'm not to save who or under what sweater sweater.

Karen sweater can, but there was a .

group of people who are like attacking .

big sweater Karen. If he has an opinion sweater SHE must have an opinion racial equity.

Come on please to see the issue is um they would complain and create these basically know twitter mobs and then they say, oh, and hire us for twenty thousand dollars will come in and fix the problem for you so they were creating the put to in and solve the problem. Wow, I mean these .

H R consoles who written .

these books, like though was danger, whatever, on White figure, know how how to be an nt races. I mean, they're all making a fortune in corporate fees, charging twenty thirty thousand dollars per per gig. I mean, that is absolutely iraqi.

I'm not a fan of equality of outcome. I'm more a fan of equality of opportunity. And I think um so many, many of these sorts of folks, I try to identify methods to drive the quality of outcome. And IT inhibits the competitive forces that caused the best person, the best idea, the best business, the best model to win.

And you know, I think it's it's easy to conflict the two when you don't really think through IT, but IT is certainly appropriate and reasonable to make sure that folks aren't discriminated against when they apply for a job. I don't think it's appropriate to then apply considerations of race and other factors when people are equally in the same job on who gets to have the chance at the bonus. IT is the best performer that should have the chance at the bonus, and the same should be true in marked places, in the same should be true of business.

Um and I think that we're really seeing is this fundamental effort to try and generate equality and outcomes um in lots of different manifest stations. And we're seeing IT more frequently and and more severely than we've seen that historically. But it's not the I don't make its the right model and it's only going to lead to to demise of marketplace dynamics in the things that cause forces for success and progress. Um to win.

You know we are we mentioned this a couple times. I just say again um but we are about to have probably the most significant movement and questioning of equity versus equality um because I think in the next month, maybe in the next two months, we're going to sort of see a pretty strict opinion on the formative action. And uh if you talk to legal scholars, the overwhelming consensus this is gone. Um and you know we're going to have to figure out how do we build you know what was a really important system that tried to give folks at least you know getting to the starting line in the same way. But it's not it's not really an existing this in the same way he performs.

Speaking of parents, Elizabeth n was bashing elon overact and elon .

has a twin .

handle um with some followers and he responded uh this with the warning, says let's change the rigged tax code to the person the year will actually pay taxes and stop releasing of everyone else unfortunately for a eliza with more and uh milan must is pretty good at twitter, he replied. And if you open your eyes for two seconds you would realize I pay more taxes than any american in history this year.

He, which is, I guess, true, he paid more in taxes now than any american in history. As a side note, eliza, a warn has a twelve lion dollar network. And I saw that SHE paid no taxes on her at what he hold things, because he didn't sell anything, which is how the tax code works.

And you on then responded, I don't spend IT all at once, await you. And then here, after the warm up, replies, you are really, you know, got in the zone. And like steff, kerry just started draining half core shots.

He raised her everything at her with thousand. You remind me of when I was a kid, and my friends angry mom would just randomly yelled everyone for no reason. System, call a manager on me senger Carrying.

You have also responded to berny centers tweet today of a climate change berny Sanders said. The future generations asked us, what do we do to stop the climate crisis? How are will the answer and you can set. And so, great tweet. Uh, but to the bigger picture, do these people even know what's going on in the world?

No, they woke up. They woke up on the wrong side of the tilt bed. Yeah, because in in like a twenty four hour period, he was the time person of the year, the F T. Person of the year. And they just went into super megahit mode and .

the build back Better act a child and he .

and then I then go .

back to sales.

And um I mean, you know I think we we talked about this last week, but that goes that now. I mean, they pushed IT to march to basically avoid a downed te. Nothing's going to happen, David, you're right.

And this still was that we said last week wouldn't be hilarious if you on said kill IT and then IT got killed.

Why I don't I don't think that that's why the bill is dying. I think the real reason is that we now see a fed posture, which is actually pretty reasonable, which actually says, oh way, there's way too much money in the system as IT is. Yes, you know, the fed two days ago basically that we're going to see up to three rate hikes next year, probably fifty basis points each. So you know, it's basically acknowledging that these these last you several years, we have printed wait too much money and they're trying to fix the problem that they created so that I think the real reason and then the cbo comes out and basically says the congressional budget office and says this thing is a White albatross that's gna cost way more than you guys think IT will and so IT puts by in this very awkward situation which is know on the one hand he supports power um and you know he supports institutions or has historical like the C B O but he effectively then has to push back on both of them all in one fall soup to try to rent this build down people throat in the supporters I think it's crumbling and so you know to say face they basically said, well, we'll put a pin on this and will revisit IT in march but you guys know what's going to happen in the next three months. Going to be some other crisis most folks will forget and IT may just allow them to move on without having to actually deal with the potential of this thing getting defeated, which would just be.

I think, mics bad for democrats today. I think you said something really important to you, said, you listen, maybe if we just calm things down for a year, we can, you know, get grew at much of the exact was but maybe you could unpack that sentiment you had on C, N, B, C. Today because I thought that was pretty important.

Yeah well, I mean, I agree with what chao said this. Um I mean this this B B, B. Bill was particularly in acronis stake once the six point eight percent inflation print came out, in other words, were in a hyper inflationary environment.

And here comes bill that the c bo says, if you over ten years would cost five trillion dollars. That's the last thing is more money printing when you know we've got this inflationary fire out of control. So I think that is why that the bill is being shelved, probably not to return.

Um I think that the larger problem that we have in the markets is that this there's a tremens amount of uncertainty being created right now by washington. We've had tremendous and certainty over spending, over taxes, over interest rates. And the conversations that i'm having with friends who are investors in really every asset class, real state VC crypto, the conversation is all the same.

What's interest state is going to do what's a micro picture gna be. I've never seen investors who should be focused on, hi, I mess this company or by this building, whatever. There's one of the conversations is all everyone's macroeconomist now.

And so we're also distracted by this. And so now the fed a couple of days ago finally gave us clarity. And what they basically said is you're going to accelerate the taper and quantity easing at the end of q one. And then we're busy and to get porter point .

people who don't know what they've been purchasing and why yeah I mean.

kind of easing is kind of what we return. What IT means is the fed has been going into the bond market and buying bonds. Um I think basic mortgage back securities and treasuries and they're been buying, I think, about ninety billion a month. They're going to cut that back to sixty billion a month, and that will continue just .

a little bit more. When you do that, what you're doing is you're giving somebody that owns those bonds money OK. So the fed is money. The government prints a hundred dollars, takes one hundred dollars steps into the market and takes something from you. In this case, it's a bond and gives you that freshly printed hundred dollars, what are you going to do while you're probably going to go and spend that you're going to buy other things. And that's the cycle of inflation that quantitative easing basically creates. And so when you call when you talk about tapering, what that means is slowing down the money printing machine and going down, you stepping in the market and buying assets with money that you've created at opinion and it's a brother people to buy those assets to other people see value in them. You are forced to find the real market clearing Price.

Ah those those baLance are now on the fed baLance sheet. And so there's a very interesting chart showing assets that are own by the fed and IT went up by something like three trillion during covered. So that is the sort of monetary stimulus suspend pumped into the market over the last couple of years. Separately, we've had some ing like six or seven trillion of spending by the government, so tremendous and so that three .

trillion is not thrown away. So we're clear we're going to get interest on that. And people some number will to faul some number get paid back. It's a way of stimulating the economy. But we now know after this, uh timmy checks and all the stimulus we did during the pandemic, we don't need to put more fire or oxygen or curacy on what we got gone in this economy corrective yeah I mean.

we should show that charge about how much the fed volunteer has grown over the last couple of years. But you know, the argument, I think, would be the reason why they they buy these assesses if they're buying bonds IT basically means that IT keeps the yield down, right? Because if they weren't the ones buying and someone else would have to buy these bonds to keep the government funded and they might demand a higher interest in a higher yield on the bond. So this by having the fed come in and increased the demand for the government's debt IT means that the government consults that debt more cheaply. So when they stop doing that, um I think you can expect that industries are going to need to rise in order to make our debt attractive to to bond buyers.

The other thing the other thing, by the way, that the fed did when they did that was IT wasn't just government bonds that they were buying. They decided completely arbitrary um at one point to start buying certain corporate det. So they own like for that G M that commercial that's called no no no that but not criminal commercial papers out of more very fast turn turn.

But like how do you make a decision to but start buying corporate bonds? It's like buying corporate equities. Do you buy google versus facebook?

Do you have a ital elector making that .

decision so pointless is set in the Price?

Who's in the Price? So you know, these guys have been off the reservation for a long time. I think it's fair to say that they were forced into action without a playbook in the middle of a once and you know lifetime once a century pandemic.

Far enough. And I think they actually did a pretty reasonable job. But we just kept the tap on for so long, and now we're like dealing with the stuff, trying to figure out how do we actually compensate.

So the idea that we would add, knowing all of this. So it's one thing, I think, if biden passed the bill five months ago, six months ago because we didn't know any of this stuff, but to do IT now knowing that, I think that it's really hard. And I bet you that it's not just mentioned on the democrats that are having a little bit of heart burn. In second thoughts, it's probably more because I suspect that they could have forced his hand really if I was just up to him. But I suspect there are other democrats are now cheering on the fence thinking I don't want my legacy to be tied to this when there we're printing six, seven, eight percent inflation for me to basically keep the money printing machine on because it's it's insane.

This is like the spooner's episode de, where he gave them like the front of the guy, like forty five boxes, the city, and like you wake up and this guy can pay the bill in the poker game. Like we're, can we even afford to pay .

this back at some point? yes. Look, I think when march comes around and going to be brought back off the table, we're going to be into the election season in twenty twenty two.

And I don't know that democrats, I want to defend this. I think there is of you on the democratic side that if they deliver enough goodies to their base, then that will help them win elections. But I think what helps you win elections more and delivering goods est to your special interests is for the economy to be healthy.

yeah. And if they are sort of pressurising this inflation situation, that is, I think ultimately that could backfire. I think that can be worse for the economy. Frankly, I think mention swing by in a favor because if the economy does grow by four percent next year as the fed is preaching IT is, and if inflation comes down because you stop turning money the way they are doing, then you know, I think the decades will do Better in the election if the economy is good.

I mean, one of the reasons why they did so poorly, you know, in the offer your election a month ago, is that this human economic, his idea out there, people are seeing the inflation at the casting when they go to buy food. And um you know if that continues, I think they're going to do very poorly next year. I wanted to like bringing of this chart from fred on total assets on the fed baLance.

eat. I think he has really seeing to look at this thing because so the the fed had about a trillion of assets until two thousand eight OK. Then we have the financial crisis, and they double IT.

That's when the quantitative of easing began. I went to two trillion, but then from roughly two thousand nine to about two thousand twenty, before covered somehow the baLance. He grew from two trillion to four trillion.

So and I had gone to four and a half, and they were starting to shed assets. So they were starting again off drugs. But I was still from two to four trillion between this, like two thousand nine and two thousand and twenty.

Pero went, supposedly we weren't in a crisis. So they have continued this quantity easing, then cover hits. And the amount grows from four to seven trillion just in twenty twenty.

And since then has gone from seven to a little and nine trillion. Just not ask well off our books ever. I think these are .

twenty years. If they going to show them.

well, either they're going to have to sell the asset, they can. Well, what sound like that they basically are are the fed is the one who bought the government debt. So their buying call IT atten your treasury.

So yeah, I guess they could just wait till the bond gets paid off. But but I guess they could do that. But but now the fed has an incentive not let the assets get toxic, right? So if you know the access will get toxic. If you know if interest rates go up too high, that drives bond Prices down. And now all the assets on their books are .

worth a lot less. Yeah this this is like the point where we have to just call IT and say, okay, you know what? Let's move on. Meaning in the sense that like we have to go to these root causes because the money is more money is not going to fix what we're dealing with. So I just put something in the group chat and I just want to get your guys as reaction to IT because when I saw IT blew my mind, there was a study, okay, that was just published a few days ago, and I said the following thing, children born during the pandemic have experienced a catastrophic drop in cognitive development of twenty two I Q points .

twenty two.

And when you look at IT, the people that were the most affected were male children and children of lower socioeconomic families, but everybody was affected, yet you cheat the amount of money that were spending already. So adding more money to something is not going to make IT Better if what we're spending today is basically just getting flushed down the toilet. And these are the kinds of things that really matter.

How do you allow an entire generation of kids to to see, to to suffer? By the way, what is that show? That means that teachers actually are unbelievable, important. The number one, they should get paid to up or O, K, just put exactly, but if if you have new this completely screwed up incentives between the the organizations, the unions that represent these teachers and and the parents who have completely different incentives and they basically fight and never be in classroom and not really teach, this is the measurable outcome yeah, the I Q of our children, I mean, we are .

probability their executive function, their stores are going down.

How do they recover .

from that of you? yes. I mean, zoom.

I don't think more. Fourth night and robo ks fixes this problem on.

That's not. And and I feel .

terrible because I can know as a parent that that was my solution, right? I was struggling with the zoos like every other parent. And then in the evenings I was just so burnt and just feeling so beside myself in the medal of pandemic. But whereas I had a no ipad role for my kids that I broke down, you know.

everybody did. I mean, everybody did home with your kids all day along is not how it's supposed to work. But so the point is like .

this is where the government should step in and actually say, okay, here, let me take leadership on this topic, right, and talk to the unions. Fix whatever needs to be fixed amp up the the money into charter schools. Do whatever you need to do, but please fix the problem. But randomly spending money to try to buy votes, I think people see through that IT just doesn't work.

And related to that, omicron is spreading like crazy. Uh.

new york city had an .

omicron omicron. There is no n omicron omicron omicron. Yes, i'll learn how to pronounce IT when it's gone.

Acron acron is spreading like crazy in new york city and in the U. K, among the other places. And the N, B A, the N F, L, are seeing surgeons.

I went a ton of people, I know, test father of this week. You guys said that family, friends crazy it's people but related yeah .

and a lot .

of people that don't have um any symptoms.

So here's the chart of cases uh cases spiking but a hospital ation and debts are flat or going down um in places where these outbreaks are occurring, the U K. H charts are even starker to a lot of anaconda dence. Everybody on tiktok and instagram and twitter. A Young people in new york we went to con are saying, me all got IT.

But if you, what is santa?

Santa is the worst holiday of the year. It's a time when A A bunch of Young people dressed sana laws and get drunk, and you have.

You see, you see how martis were in his.

That's what .

goes on. Everyone wears a little thing and they go barrowing.

So it's not sexy. Santa.

well, actually, I have a story about that. I was.

you were sexy sand, no.

I literally took my daughters are rope, uh, uh, tony, uh, in the north beach and you know, I got my three daughters. And there's always people walk around that looked at at sanccob. It's like a lot of them. And so there's a thousand seven cars descend on north beach and I turned around and I kid you not, there are two old guys i'm talking seven years old and they're wearing a baseball a and ahead .

send a boots and .

nothing in between and luck naked in on the status yeah but you you're so you're .

so demanded okay you're like this like on key perf, like every time I get those text messages, I don't know what to think. Did you guys click on the twitter link with? This was a guys search for the false and street fair on twitter. I I can and see .

what I saw a terrorist check.

right? That was so brutal you shouldn't send that shit around.

It's so brutal. A twitter link .

what is IT about web three point out .

not exactly uh the full sum tree fair. I'm going to go ahead say don't search for that um if you have kids around it's a little bit intense. But anyway, the santa was on saturday to seven eleven and so here we are five days later, four five days later in the stuff hitting, if that's true, is almost perfectly mirrors original outbreak and same patch's day in march twenty twenty. And if you look on social media, all the city md lines uh where people get tested are around the block and thirty N B, A players have entered the COVID poor call the last two weeks, about seven percent of the league and um we would be question mark of would this be less more contains and obviously is less deadly .

IT apparently some studies show as much as forty times more infectious than delta. Um highly cintas extreme, very much airborn. It's going everywhere. Uh like I said, lifetime.

If IT doesn't end up having low severity and low um hospitalization rate and low death rate for vaccinated or vaccinates plus boosted populations uh this could end up being a massive in united event meaning like a lot of people will develop new anybody and resistance and um you know that could be a that good thing but it's certainly the case. This is not a one strain, one shot and done pandemic. This is an endemic kind of circumstance.

We're going to be in this for a while and um you know the circumstances or one that may kind of require you know an adaptation in terms of how we live in, Operate and especially if they released the things that are so important like keeping business is open in schools. Um you know I think we're going to use recent memory to guide future decision making at least politicians and you kind of lawmakers well and you'll say, hey, this is what we did lifetime this happen and we just saw this in california or they like last time we told everyone going to lock down or wear masks indoors again and we're seeing that behavior again. Certainly, IT may have an impact in terms of the spread, but this is highly can take this and it's gonna read everywhere. And I think there's just some meditation that maybe it's going to be needed here over the long room. There's no there's no end inside.

There's no insight. But um IT is less deadly and so IT could be massive mi zing and that has LED people to think of this heart community potentially if there is not another version. Um fact, if the NBA in the nfl are learning to live with coffee and obviously when we were in miami, there's no coffee and often there's no coffee.

Is everybody now just because IT seems like the politicians? Now whether it's in europe, we're seeing the protests. Uh and I I think we'll see them here in the united states if this keeps up australia obviously having protest as well, the public has decided I think we're willing to have a thousand people die a day or a certain number people die today to get back to Normal. So what what do you think the hand game here is going to?

Twenty two will make a prediction for twenty two. okay? I will predict that even the blue areas of the country are gona have fatigue with all these cover restrictions.

And so even the blue state governors who are addicted to their state of emergencies and their restrictions and lockdowns and closures and mass man date, even they are going to have to give them up and train twenty two because the country is sick. Entire to this Peter fame had a really good tweet to the other day. And you guys can dig IT up where he had a friend visit him from texas.

And they've living Normally there since, like july twenty, twenty, roughly kids in school, occasionally someone get sick, but they've been living Normally. Okay, it's a manual problem. And he couldn't believe Peter friend could not believe how they're living in L A.

We're still everyone's living in fear if we now have a new one month indoor mass min date. Thanks to, you know, governor newsome, restore is ruling the state and state of emerge. What what could is I going to do? So I think but but I think that some these blue areas, people are so patch fied still over the virus.

And I think it's just because of there are the ones who have been ingesting all this fear point coming from the media. And but but I think it's gna break. I think that the finally this system empathic will break IT will quest over the blue parts of the country. And twenty two, they're already back to Normal in the red parts and especially omicron, you can't stop this.

So I think that the the silent point here, nothing you're all onna.

get a little student vx card that you have to show everywhere to get like about the movie there like services go doesn't do anything because vaccinated people can spread IT to. So that doesn't do anything. And the mast main day doesn't do anything, you know.

And so none of the stuff doesn't anything, except getting a vaccine reduces the severity of the illness if you get IT and losing weight. And we can have that conversation. Those consequences are mainly on the person who decides to do that.

We have have to tell everybody, you know, listen, lose way, get in shape, eat healthy, if vaccinated, get back to life. That's that's the best you can do. And I believe everybody .

is we're starting to see like a real divergence in american life where and I think omron, if we have locked down under omicron and really the biggest of school closures, if we go back to school closures and blue states to have more of the learning loss that your moths was talking about, and I bet we do, whereas in red states, they are still out there learning Normally.

They're dealing with IT, just like they deal with the outbreak of a flu season or cold season, but they there is managing IT. We're going we're going to be living in two different americas. But but I don't believe this is sustainable. I think eventually these governors were holding on to their power and their restrictions are going to lose in twenty, twenty two, the ones who haven't given IT up, we're going to basically fall to a red wave in a vea twenty two, I think new. So might be the only .

one less closed. I see everybody y's canceling the Christmas part. J. P. Morgan, cancel .

that.

Every Christian parties been getting cancel. Um and I wonder of schools, I mean teachers, juniors and they got to be having a meeting right now.

They don't technology learning was exist mean .

a point decided to home school for the year, the pandemic. And I kept my home school teacher for you know a couple of hours a day. And because have done wonderful in great to have the ability to afford able to do that, but not everybody can have an after school .

tutor or up of the first second. okay. So maybe spelling beings on one of my predictions, i'll make IT the predictions episode do.

First we had cove IT. okay? Then we had the overreaction to cove IT, both politically and economically. Economically, we pumped tension, plus of spending and monetary and Q, E and all the other stuff. Politically, we had these restrictions, school closures, lockdowns man, dates.

Okay, I think we're about to enter a new face, which is the correction to the overreaction, and I think we're ready in the correction. So the markets been correcting, gross docks are correcting for the last five or six weeks. I now think that there was a bit of a political correction with Young kin winning in Virginia.

Remember that state swang ten points relative to a year ago, and I think you'll see a further correction. But political, economic in two thousand twenty two. So we may not be completely passed over, but I think we are going we past this sort of overreaction to cove IT.

What you guys .

think about succession, I know 哎呀, jermy strong, jermy strong, strong.

jermy strong. okay. Jermy strong is a weird a according to a new york profile and there's been a huge response to IT.

Ah this profile .

is really who is woke and dumb and effective as an .

executive and obviously .

the show is modeled after rupe, murdoch and fox and the kids there who are not to be actually in the article, IT hinted that most of secessions co workers dislike him e to his intensity and method acted and method acting. Reuters, he won't rehearse with anybody. He's in character all the time, like you do, is he won't get make up when where everybody else does. He doesn't reduce the energy and the build up. Uh, the article notes, there is a fine line that throng walks between being a legendary method after and just a complete a the awesome networker.

Can I tell you why this story was interesting to me in wise? Because you guys, yeah okay so here's a guy who in many ways is a virtual so and the reason you mean he's he's a really good actor because I despise candle oy on that show uh, and I was onderdonk is this guy just a terrible actor? Is he such a good actor that I hate them? Yes, I hate him.

And that's why I was attracted to this article and in IT or after IT. So basically what happens is he's a virtual so just, I not come back with the second these people at the new yorker, who I guess are just jealous or want to right click back, try to destroy this guy. But what they didn't factor is that one may publish this article. All these other actors would come to his defense .

and do IT really publicly, yes. And half way and away, just A C and road letter.

exactly that Jessica chast publish to twitter because iron, iron circon doesn't have. Have access to social media by design. And in all of that they said, this is the most incredible person we've seen, iran.

Circum says. This guy is as good as does. And how f which is like that is as good as a get.

So why was IT interesting to me? If you have these people who are grinding and trying to perfect their craft? B A virtual. So you talked about staff curry grinding, try to perfect their craft. Just a little staff curry story as attention.

He, he brought in this team where they basically started to map out all of the, uh, cr conferences of the ring of the of the net. And he practice this summer literally trying to get IT perfectly in to create this very specific kindness wish. And he just kept shooting and shooting and shooting and shooting, not, you know, all the time, but every day for some number of shots, trying to get the ball perfectly into the basket.

That is a level of perfectionism. And if that's being a virtual so that none of us can really appreciate. But you see the output and we all love IT is .

already the goat and he's trying to outdo himself.

Here's a different guy in a completely different theatre, in this case, acting, trying to also be really legendary and putting himself through all kinds of stuff and still not lose himself in IT. Okay, so much so that all of these other people are really appreciate how amazing is. And to me, what I don't like is that then these critics who don't do anything, who've never accomplished anything at all in their lives.

feel judge, feel so triggered .

that they have to judge. It's one thing to not have that skill. I'll never be as good of an actors jermy strongly and never be as good of the baskets player's stuff. But I don't hate these people for that. I am so happy that people like this exist, but there is a strain of people that exist and then also have .

a and .

then also a platform. Yes, I was about to connect the dots for is like.

look a look at how politicians feel .

the way roy people do as they take a shortcut. They are the critics. They're not in the arena. Okay, the focus in the arena are booking wins and losses constantly.

But you have this you have this train of impotent critic that doesn't actually know how to do for themselves. And they somehow have a platform. And then what they end up doing is cutting corners. And then some subset of those start to cheat. Q David.

well, yeah is a story that congress back in two thousand twelve, past a bill called the stock act to prohibit members of congress and trading on their insider knowledge based on based on legislative actions are about to take. And it's been widely flooded by dozens of representatives and senators. And the problem, there's no punishment at something like a two or all are fine or something like that, that gets waved in most of these cases.

So it's completely hyp or critical because these are the these politicians like center care and their constant and and attacking other people to make themselves look Better and then here they are. They've got dirty hands and they ask polis, they said, a poli, don't you think that members of congress should be prohibited from trading stocks, right? Because their actions have such a huge consequence on them and policy said, no, it's it's a free market is a free market which be free to to do that. So like huh you know I don't remember that being a defense every time you've anted to regulate some you know industry that they doesn't .

the president have to diverse when they take the presidential office .

is not the us. Or they put .

they put the from .

blind just yes they're blind. So why would senator congress .

told elected officials should be able engagin trading and makes sense.

The fed uh actually had this issue as well. Two um two focus on the federals are board resigned and then power issued uh a whole bunch of I think new laws try or regulations inside the fed to fix IT and the same issue occurs with federal judges and there are federal judges that are consistently trading in the equities of the companies that are in front of them.

And so how can you how can you adjudicate the case? There was one judge that at one hundred and thirty plus conflicts, trading conflicts one hundred and thirty plus. And he is the one that's there where A N T, your facebook or google has an issue. I mean, how can you actually assume that these folks are being impartial at that the case and there are no consequences for this. And yet, you know, if you are again, going back to where we started, somebody in the arena trying to do something, you just got to think yourself like you have critics that are asking you, you have folks that are basically flooding the law because they can and then you put these two together. And it's like, this is so it's kind of depressing, to be honest with you.

You start to use a little to think, I mean, these these politicians are grifters that's IT and full stop. I mean, they are just drifting. I mean, except apparently accept berny Sanders and eliza with more and they should just buy the companies say, hey, why rents they buying amazon and tesla. They would be total proponents of jeff bays are anyone mask if they .

did yeah in furness to warn i've seen her tweet that SHE supports the beaning of the insider trading. I don't know exactly you are fighting for IT hard's announcing people like elon so look I mean its its characteristic of elected officials that they um what is that they see the slender in somebody in somebody else as I have and not the log in their own or something like that isn't not the expression but you know who's taking advance of this issue? Is Blake masters, who's running for senate in arizona, a just tweet about that. This would be the first thing he would fix if he gets selected, which is to ban insider trading by elected officials. And I think it's remarkable that you know politicians as sue as ancilla icy or december this issue to republicans, I mean, I don't know why republicans would make this a major bank of their platform for twenty twenty two.

Nancy policy is I think the third of four richest person in congress, her husband is a very sophisticated private equity investor. There are these meme stocks that follow Nancy ploy, stocks trading account or pretend to that were, you know, recently, by the way, ban by twitter, right?

Yeah is weird. yeah. Protecting her.

protecting her .

effectively. So, you know, he has an incentive to not her seat of power is not necessarily the salary that he earns by being house leader, but it's by translating that a bunch of different ways. And one way, apparently turns out, is being an active equity investor in the market.

It's unbelievable that's allowed. I don't know how this isn't just like an a plus fantastic issue for publicans. They should make IT an absolute plan .

of their here we go florida republican brian mast, uh, was late and disclosing disclosing purchase of up one hundred thousand and stock and arrow space company, which had just testified before our committee he sets conducta republican rand paul was sixteen months late disclosing that he bought his wife walked stock in a farmer company that manufacturers and anti viral covin nineteen nineteen treatment and democrats susie failed to disclose more than two hundred trades yeah, just much three million. I mean.

this is clear. The violations have been on both sides of the aisle. Not at all trying say republicans are Better .

on the democrats part is in CoOperation.

Yeah, yeah. exactly. I mean, it's ridiculous. This is the political class in washington engaging about behavior. But the differences, this, which is that police are the only leader of a party i've heard defend this, is polite. And I think this is a fantastic issue for outside our candidates, really on both sides.

to run on. This is also something that biden can take, because biden .

has never tried to .

do this stuff. My .

god, I got a rich brother .

is a brilliant selling .

paintings.

yeah. But why are they buying hundred by in paints for five hundred thousand dollars?

But I mean a great artist. I know. Why are people die? I have never saw mali a coming out with that of these today. So shem's secure everybody, secure the bag. Now, I mean, if, and by the way, the presidential grip is always the best, just as a case in point, trumps back is worth over two billion and buzz feed, which makes strangers sixty million a year.

And I think as one hundred two .

million million cashes six shares, his receiving worth close last twenty day but he's .

on an office anymore.

the share going to receive cuts yeah what your counting is the market cap of the cash and trust, the value of the shares, the trump, the value of the trump entity going to be toiler with no revenue paints for background transaction because there is no business, there is no contract, there's no employees.

It's just the whole. But by the way, I just to make sure that everybody understands this is this is a byproduct thing as well. The the ultimate bag secures the obama's got, I think, fifty million plus each of their book deals. And they got supposedly high eight figures, like fifty, sixty, seventy, eighty million dollars from net on a second.

a second when you sit, when you call them back secured. I was really triggers red there for second. So, and I suppose to take that offensively, that you are saying, we all, obama and brock obama, secure red the bag.

Secure of the bag is a term for .

getting the money. The government is OK.

So see.

you are not against everybody, not be in going to make money. Uh, the issue is trading on your office in a way that uh, where you are trading on your insider information that your office is.

give me sure.

But I think if you're selling influence, if you're sell a book concept, if you sell a book when you're out of office, is that really a problem?

Is I need to point out the network one. What was netflix is existential crisis for the eight years of mom was in office. And you may remember, nobody remembers nectary cares.

Could they get would they have to pay verizon? What was the obama's position on neutrality? They were for neutrality. It's netflix sock when up forty fifty x under what the fuck .

er so you .

saying it's like you saying is that disguise love .

ing payment to obama? I think it's like, are you serious? I think it's like the clinton were doing speaking kids for gold and half a kind .

of my cute I go to dinner now.

Okay, here's the mr.

Know the main way that winston churchill supported himself was writing books. I think it's OK for politicians to write books and. Because hopefully, the public buys them and that's how they make.

What about when the book is fifty million in the Normal Price will be ten.

That's the problem. I mean, I guess you might have a point if the advance was so in access of the expected sales. That IT raises a question of what the real motive, what i'm for the payment, but I don't. But what have nobody .

gets paid to fifty million dollars, but nobody gets an eight made a documentary before? no. I mean, if this books sold five million copies is so won't be worth, uh, let's move on to M. N. A. So keep our freed freeman .

factor high up like, so i'm so ready to go to bitter rick tops and game a wonderful bottle wine. By the way.

i'm going to go drink tonight.

I mean, resize the obama's I can do I mean.

this is worst and sweater care what?

What about the clinton? Can I can I ah go after there five hundred speaking games for coments actually yeah, that's okay. Yeah but I mean.

jina are are you doing exactly what center ocurred ted to e on, which is is by virtue of the fact that they are .

making money.

something I pay a lot of money from ml obama to do much. I know .

somebody never made .

a film.

I this is on the second before I jump up the winter right now.

yeah, let winters when I .

think we differentiate between insider trading too bad and should not be allowed, influences peddling bad should not be allowed, and somebody out of office .

making money influence on, no.

not more tizer influence. And if they did that.

that's a possible getting paid for services.

paid to sell tickets .

or books .

that if .

that's what.

Didn't .

kid a speak?

Like thirty percent .

lesson a high .

and desk no no so .

yeah .

that's exit.

There's a you saying what thirty percent more than fifty is saying it's like eighty and I don't like these are only grant. I didn't realize that um I talk to us about the M R N is for cancer river that came out this past week. So I think the article .

that you guys sent an was one related to um an oncology treatment that uses M R A tech. But I I think it's what I want to what I be interest to talk about for a second is just coming out on M R A technology as a whole um which you know has been theorized for you know the the potential of its been talking about for fifty years.

Um if we talk about real quake, what what R N A is, remember your DNA, your genetic code, uh you know defines um the a uh the printing of proteins in yourselves. And so every three letters of DNA a mino acid, a bunch of a mino acid in a in a row former protein, and that protein has some function in your body. The way that the DNA gets translated into protein is through these M R N A stept.

So, uh, a little snippy of R N A is a copy of DNA, which floats over from the DNA strand and IT floats into what's called the ridicule m and the riosa ms, the proken in the cell. And there's lots to ride the zones and there's lots of R N A floating around all the time and it's being copied over. So some chemical trigger the expression of that gene of that sequence of DNA into R N.

A, that then turns into protein. And so chemical induces the protein. Then the protein does something interesting, and the protein has a function in your body. And some of those proteins in human body can, you know, do bad things, and some of them can do good things. And so the idea has always been that we can actually use proteins as a way to modulate our health and modulate disease, for example, creating a protein that can attach the cancer cells and signal immune cells to come and kill those cancer cells, as an example. And some people have genetic problems where the DNA prints the wrong protein, and then that protein is malformed, causes some harm to your health.

And so the idea for R N A technology has always been that instead of having DNA be the source of truth for the proteins that get expressed in your body, can we stick R N A directly into cells and use that R N A to trigger the production of proteins that can do specific things in your body? And remember, the biggest segment of the farmer market, or a huge segment of the farmer market, is what's called biologic drugs, which are largely anti bodies, which are type of broking that have some specific function. But very many of these proteins are hard to get into the body and get them into the right place and get them to do the things we want to do.

So be a lot easier if we can get R A into the right cells to get those cells to make the right protein to do that thing that we want them to do. So everything from cancer treatment to genetic diseases um uh and there is R N A interference and there's um R N A or water called illegal nuclear tides that can be used to block specific bad proteins from being produced in yourselves um or is kind of another kind of course of treatment. So making proteins that we think are therapeutic and blocking the production of bad proteins are kind of the the main say of the idea behind R N A technology.

And maDonna was started to pursue this effort at a flagship pioneering, which is an incubation shop in boston. Um and they really kind of struggled for years to find the right footing of what's the right business model and the right product and and the F D, A kind of struggle with the proving stuff. And then boom cove a hit.

And when cove IT hit was like, holy crap, let's accelerate this orange technology used IT for vaccines, or had been in development for years, and the protein is being produced as the same protein you find on the the source. Copy two virus, which trigger an immune sponge and build up your immunity to the virus. And now the floodgates are open.

And this is incredible because the frontiers in R N A over the next decade could change the course of how we treat disease um and change the course of um uh of outcomes for many diseases from genetic diseases all the way through the cancers um and so we're starting to see those flood gates open. I think there is now a few a handful of these uh you know uh are no interference um products that have been approved by the F D. A.

And we're now starting to see many more of these cancer and the new therapy drugs are to get proved uh S R N A uh therapies. But IT really uh I think was lit by um uh by the breakthrough would cove IT and everyone kind of seeing the benefit of ism, the lack aside effects. And we've now got, uh I think of validation in the market and acceptance from consumers of this technology could transform the industry in the same way that genetech transform the farming industry with biologic drugs in the eighties and nineties. So it's super exciting. Um and you know we can do updates regularly on our show if you guys want to talk about more the cool stuff coming, man, this is gonna transform, how medicine has delivered and and the potential of things that we can count train.

Let me ask you a question. Would the if we look at the total number of deaths from covered and then the potential death, you know, debs avoided or early debt or more life is added, how we want to do IT from mra, the impact on cancer over the next six, seventy four years, in other words, the impact would have on the people living today who lived through giving net net uh we will see that the prevention of cancers through this technology IT actually make you know we're based this relinked to what happened during colvin.

It's a good question. Um let me give you the counterpoint. In the late nineties there was A A gene editing critical trial that took place, and they tried to an, an, a patient, and they and they delivered the genetic ting technology via virus.

And so the virus goes in expres around. And and IT has this, the molecule that would edit the gene. And and, and IT was for genetic disease, and a patient that they gave to a Young guy got this uh this virus. He actually died from me and they shut down all clinical trials s for years and he was like, boom, that's the end.

So um there there are a lot of scientists, a lot of doctors have argued for years that that particular case caused so many lives to be lost because we lost years of progress and being able to run critical trials during that time and get drugs to market that could treat people. And you're right, maybe the opposite has happened here that while these clinical trials may have taken years and years and years to get through Normal setting, perhaps the pandemic was the accelerant. We needed to get more of these to market faster and millions of people whose lives would have been lost or would be lost otherwise to cancer, another a genetic diseases and so on over the years to come will be safe because these therapies will get to market faster. And so yeah, it's it's it's a it's a great point and and maybe I don't know what the calculus is between the lives lost in the pandemic verses the lives gained, these treatments coming to market faster. But it's it's certainly good .

waiting about IT the way to look at the look at the days of life lost, right? We actually could actually predict how lonesome as you live and that, you know extension of life. I think we can come out of this ahead. Uh, finally, on our docket lending by calls for Better policing and sand Francesc, this insane surgeon crime, here's the video.

is time that the rain of criminals who are destroying our city IT is time for you to come to an end and IT comes to an end. When we take the steps to be more aggressive with law enforcement, more aggressive with the changes in our policies and less tolerant of all the bulls shit that has destroyed our city, we are going to a turn this around.

This is a city that has a population of less than one billion people within over twelve billion dollar by the resonance of the city. Have been extremely generous in providing us with the resources we need to make a difference. And now the priorities we need to make must be to protect them, must be to turn things around in their neighborhood. When you are in a room full of people, I would say probably anywhere between ninety and ninety five percent of folks could raise their hand and say that either their car has been breaking into, broken into, or they're been a victim in some capacity, or that is not okay, that is not acceptable.

Sax, I thought crime was down and that everything was great and that we were going to defend the police. What is happening here?

What what's the big turnaround? Well, exactly what I was saying that first, while I loved IT, I love what he said. It's exactly what i've been saying for the last year, and it's really great to hear her say the same types of things.

I started this this campaign back in january after new evia, those two women get killed by a repeat offender who was released by chasta budi. And then as I dugger into, I saw that he was doing this all the time as part of his agenda dearmer ation. So and a year later, like we've talked about throughout this, this whole time, and the city is totally to generated into some sort of this topic, gotham, like city.

This did feel like the begin of a batman movie. I mean, he was a strong statement. I thought I was great.

This is just the beginning of what needs to be done. I predict that london breed is going to eventually bud heads with chase of udine. There is no way that he will support the agenda, fixing the city.

He wants to increase the police presence. So like you said, he is gonna refund the police, not defend the police. Chase of udine is I mean the only people he's passionate prosecuting our police officers yeah so we have a huge problem that the police department is actually we have too few of them. We are we would .

take that job.

It's not just because of budget, also because you're demoralized and they've got you know they've got this prosecutor. By the way, there was a case just recently where a repeat offender bashed a vocable all over the head of a cop and chase distances ced that he's getting sentimental health diversion. Instead of being prosecuted, I want what yeah cop .

and not go to jail in the city of ever.

Yes, yes. This is why the capture demoralized. So in order for london breed to fix the problem, he is going to like, ck, he's got to go.

So here's my prediction. On february fifteen, they're having the recall election for the education board. And I predicted that board, at least two of the three are going to be recalled.

The parents of the second tire of IT, they are going to be out. I think that's gonna bold in london. Breed then support the recall of chase bu dean in the june election and and I think between the .

pick is replaced moment from.

yes, exactly.

So that's what she's doing. SHE basically flipped. SHE was quiet up to this point. The progressive .

left are slowly eating themselves. Yeah, I think I think .

this is self preserving right off. I mean, if he didn't make a change here, she's going to be out of office too.

You'll get recalls. It's not self preservation. They're realizing that these policies don't work. Moral absolutism didn't work on the left or the right.

These guys have tried in a small scale to do what a certain fraction of the democratic party has been trying to do at a national level. IT doesn't work over spending under policing and educating. IT doesn't do anything there.

I think there's going to be a schism. I think it's started after a the Young and Victory in Virginia, and I think it's going to accelerate through for the next year and especially after the red wave in november twenty twenty two. There is going to be a schism between liberal, pragmatic and these extreme radical progresses. I think um london brief represents she's obviously very liberal, but I think she's magmatic. I think he wants to find solutions that work whether chase of udine is a radical idiot who will never change no matter how much evidence is presented to him, as policies don't .

work on that firing. I think there's a simple formula. The person who gets you into the mess is likely not the right person to get you out of the mess. And um you know he talks about san Francisco having a twelve billion dollar your budget.

Can you guys imagine if SHE was the CEO, a tech company that had twelve billion dollars a year in OPEC, and SHE ran the business into the ground with the board, say, go ahead, turn IT around. Absolutely not. The board. Step in. And in this case, the board is the citizens of sand, Frances o and they would say, let's find the right person to turn the thing around and while he stood up and set the right things, and maybe IT would echo, and I think, you know, even if IT echoes within David axis heart time, sure.

It's echo ing and a lot hearts of more liberal and from seconds um but I think that the apathy being asleep at the wheel and allowing the um disorganization across the departments within that city is ultimately her responsibility and I don't think that any amount of you know verbiage or action SHE might take at this point justifies the damage he has caused while being the leader of that city. And I think that you're and by the way, I think you'll see to sex this point earlier. I think you'll see the same response across the nation where folks feel like the the leaders that got them into the mess that they're in locally, in cities and elsewhere around this country are going to vote those folks out of office um because they want to change. And it's the same reason we saw folks were cropped into office and the same reason we saw both trump out of office. The more you want to see a change, the more you're going to make a change with your political.

So freeburg is so so right there is a phenomenal twitter account. His name is rob Anderson, and he's like A P. H.

D. Student right now. Think he's in europe and scholarship. You know, this, this, this, this guy has has an incredible background, which you can talk about later. But rob henderson has a thin, which I love, which is that, you know, a lot of this stuff is born out of what he calls luxury beliefs, right? Like defunding the police is a largely belief, if you're like this rich, middle class clustered person that can sit behind the gate, have armed security eta, because you're not living in the get to where the by products of the byproduct of defunding the police are born out or dearmer ation are born out.

Or you know, if you send your kid to a private school, you can completely be for all these crazy radical ideas like defunding, you know, advanced place and defunding the gifted program. Because if your kids smart, you'll just pay for a twitter and you can do whatever you want. Those, Lucy believes, exist more in the progressive left in such a small coordination than in any other political class that we have in america. And when they get a hold of power, they've now had the right to show whether those luxury beliefs can actually work. The data says IT doesn't.

But all the competence, I mean, how about that? Like just keep people safe and make the education.

These and luxury beliefs belong in sociology textbooks, in anthropology articles. They, they, they're Better off and like we're beat any smoke pot and talk about IT over a glass of wine.

clean up. Look, I have no special desire to defend london breed. I'm sure there are many.

I I.

there are many .

breed brand sweater.

Look, i'm sure there are Better mayors, but I think I think we have to sort of temper what you said based on the realities of politics and is go which which are this. We actually have a weak mayor. The mayor can do anything without the, without the boat of the body.

Supervisors and the super are controlled right now by bunch crazy, basically, Alice, the impression and many hillis who are who are allies of chase a bude's. Okay, so london breed, I think, wants to do some good things. I think that SHE is more pragmatic than these idiotic gs.

I think that he could have been more aggressive and more outspoken about standing up to them. How earlier? How earlier? okay. But I think he is now doing the right thing in terms of the speech he just gave, basically calling for refunding the police and we're sick of the bullshit and were going to take action. Those the right things saying right now, he did the right thing into supporting the recall of the school board. And what i'm saying is let's give a chance to see if he does come out in favor of the recall of chase bd, because I think that what s had and SHE gets on board with that, as he shows he's pragmatic, SHE may actually survive you .

rather if he gets .

out happening all around the country, right? We saw build a blazer, who is the first real progressive leftest elected to a major city. He completely ran new york city into the ground.

Now our atoms is going to go cleaned up, right? We had glin Young, who basically ran a center campaign, take over Virginia. It's over.

Also, join y, let's call IT. It's over trism pragmatism, enough of these extreme polar opposites OK. Let M.

T. On the proud boys go and make love to each other and some deserted ireland. It's over. It's done.

Not stop talking about somebody like me like proud boys. And what's the other group? Oath keepers or something that this woman whose gay t she's like, oh you know is Rachel metal SHE is like, I think these are like gay activist groups. Aren't they like proud boys and sounds like a gay activist grow. I think we're .

seeing the the correction of the overreaction, the endemic calls, what neil focusing calls pandemic politics, that we that the pandemic bread a strain of radical politics that we saw all over the country. And I think, and I think the country is going to come out of that.

Did you see these idiots go to cheese cake factory and do a sit in without their masks on and that their form of protest is like we're going to go into the .

cheesecake back talking about .

there was a cheesecake factory protest, uh, and now it's going national with people who are anti mask, anti facts there, don't want to have to show their cards or wear masks when they walk to their seats so they're literally doing sitting S A cheese caparros like I would protest going to a cheese the factory like amErica protest cheesecake factories is.

well, some people are to diet like you j and enjoy cheesecake .

well where are you at what's the number that just give .

us the number what you're d once .

seventy four so i'm i'm and right up behind you you hear the steps you have the sexy .

you i'd love your sweater i'm going to drive to the city, come to the muslim and and make left you .

with all right everybody will see you next week on the best podcast love you best love sex. Rainman give IT we open .

sources to the fans and just .

got crazy.

sexual.

What your .

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b we get you.