E91: SoftBank's $21B+ Vision Fund loss, signals of a bubble, macro picture, Trump raided by FBI
01:09:01 Share

How mad is sax gonna when he sees my button situation today?

I'm.

oh my god. Look at the color situation at all. Look all of the lake .

where .

the league, I got the league about you. I was like.

all .

five kids.

And we navigated the entire island of ordinary for eight days. amazing.

And by when you say we navigated, you mean the crew navigated and U A, R. seafood.

And I look.

Rain man, give.

We open sources to the fans .

and just got crazy. But everybody.

welcome to episode ninety one, epsom, ninety one of the all in pakistan. We're still here. Lots of news to discuss this week with me, of course, to chop IT up from his deposition room, the war room, the red men himself. David sacks, how you do, brother, big week for you.

You're all big weeks.

There are a big, big, big. You look tired.

Recall pretty, really. You actually look really tired.

really. Think about, I sort off the lake. I feel fresh.

I was just wake boarding this morning. And law, i'm refreshed. I'm refreshed. And of course, in front of his nine dollar clip, art h that he blew up on easy print stot orgues the sult of science himself to have a free break. Ur.

always great to be with you. J, K, L, are you working and boost myself a steam in my morale to be with you every morning that we get to connect over zone?

But i'm glad that your performance has been stratosphere. C, the last three weeks you're going on a hot trick list, if you can, continued on episode ninety one and missing many button. This week got, we've got at least the three or four, but log is going, how are you doing dictor from your island? Remote island did you? Uh, you you invaded in island.

Marks cope, another five percent. And one more button comes.

I like me. So this is twenty percent. Have you go? Got twenty five a bullshit.

The more bullet he gets on the market, the .

more he on .

button.

That's a little too much die.

That's like a chicken me.

Very tight too. Very tight. Are you? Yeah.

there's a definitely. Are you wearing like .

a children science or something .

that a june your size? And I like the title size. You do.

I do like the title sizes. I think they should. My body.

time, all the little bumps and .

formation. All right, start with is a lot to talk about this week.

I think one of .

the most interesting things, last we were talking about IT in the group chat, uh, that doesn't exist. Vision funds twenty one billion dollar in western loss for the quarter. Museo SHE sound did a really great uh, youtube video I sent around. Did you and you guys watch the video?

Yes, no.

okay. It's really interesting to watch or put IT in the show notes.

It's like a six minute interview he put on his earnings paid right like right when they put out quarterly earnings. He's like, here's my yeah IT .

here he comes to a podium and basically talks about, uh, the vision fund.

Obviously, if people don't know the vision fund, one was a hundred billion dollars largest venture fund ever raised um and soft bank's car and market have a sixty six billion here's to quit from the F T article sunset on monday that soft bank would now subject itself to draw at a cost cutting exercise after a fifty nine billion dollar investment gain at the two vision funds almost completely reversed over the past six months, they were up almost sixty billion dollars at the peak. And I came crashing down. Master kicked off the presentation showing portraits of togo.

Aga toa A U. This is the founding guan of japan's, uh, took kaya sugar. Ut, and you rule japan for six. I mean.

i'm killing this god .

IT so hard. Yeah, I mean, but he was just so great. Let me just play a clip for you here. Here's a sixty eight second clip and will talk about IT right after. And then we'll get into what all this means.

This is a portrait made against das and came back in the background of bet to cook up a years, have to face, get a, and which is much, much larger army than theirs in the most of the allies actually said, this is gonna the losing, but also that they should not go for IT, but actually Better to stay at the castle.

We, to do his face so that he get out from the castle, had a battle, made a complete loss and suffer, and came back in that learn lesson, he try to remember and remind his own learnings and put IT into destroyed. So since the foundation of south bank group, I made a two consecutive quarters loss. So previous quarter and this time quarter, constructively, we made three traditional level of the loss. So in total, six traditions, those uh, was made in the past six months. So I believe I need to remind that myself.

pretty spectacular loss. And then he he goes on to take some q and a. And this is the, I guess the the killer quote when we were turning out big profit, I became somewhat delicious. And looking back at myself, I am quite embarrassed and remorseful.

You've remember, of course, he complained a little bit in the in this whole thing about how there was a giant bubble without ever recognize that he kind of created the bubble with a four billion dollar check, uh, to we work at a forty seven billion dollar valuation after twenty minute meeting with adam new man, this chart is pretty incredible. This is the net income quarterly is actually you can think of soft bank is like a holding company of a bunch of uh, different assets, including alibaba, previously uber and all of his vision fund stuff. Ninety seven percent decrease in terms of deployment of capital.

So if you look at capital deployment as well, nobody ever this much money to work, especially in private. The second chart you're looking to one of twenty twenty one, they put twenty billion to work. And then q on this year, they're putting six hundred million to work.

But just quick reflections on this. What we saw here with moste, she's deploying a hundred billion dollars at the top of the market into amy spicy, creating the market toch math. Other lessons here, uh or take away from you.

I mean, I think that people don't seem to understand that if you're going to a attempt to be great, they're gonna be moments where you look the exact opposite of great. You know, the guy that takes the final shot is the same guy that can miss the final shot. And here is a guy over, as you know, fifty year career has had some few jobs and downs.

This is also the same guy that found a way to rip in twenty five or thirty million dollars and made one hundred and twenty five billion off of alibaba. That's the same kind of person who has that kind of resultance. He was, for seven minutes or something, the richest person in the world yeah, and then lost ninety nine percent of his worth in the dot com bubble.

I have enormous respect for a person like this because I feel like IT takes enormous amounts. Of course, I ve said this before, most people driver jabber about investing in all of this stuff in which push comes to shop. They crumble like little bitches and run into mommy s courteil.

It's hard to put lots of money to work. And this is a guy that's done IT. So the same person that can make one hundred and twenty five billion, turns out, is the same person that can lose thirty billion. And so one thing is, I will just keep in mind that this is a razzing, a guy who seems to land on his feet.

And the second thing that nobody talks about is how smart saudi arabia and abadi were in how they structured the investment into division fund because half more than half their investment is in prefer equity, which is effectively that that pays a coupon. And you see IT now where soft bank, by the way, who has been pretty smart and how the'd manage your alibaba a position have been using these derivatives and forward swap to be able to sell and manage their liquidity. So IT turns out that, you know, even if the vision fund breaks, even sad arabia and abedi will have made money because I think they can paid to six percent coupon on, you know, fifty billion dollars is a lot of money over six, seven, eight, nine years.

It's a lot. South bank has found a way to sell down twenty five percent of alibaba a, which is no trivial feet for a half a million doll company. And this guy gets to keep swinging. And if you know, hit IT one more time, he will end up with a tune.

This chart is pretty great. Um sax, if you look at this, this is the gain in loss on investments at the vision fund a. You can see the first vision fun racing up, then coming down I think after that summer of ipos that we had in the ibb ua days um and then a huge peak run up in twenty twenty one and then come and crashing down.

Apparently he wasn't selling uh any portion of this. That to me was a big lesson of like maybe pairing some of these winners if it's all ten or twenty percent on the way up, this could look like a completely different outcome. But I agree with the chao. He swung for the fences and there is downside protection built in for the lp s into some of the sex. Where your thoughts any lessons here in terms of the impact on our overall ego system or that you can take as a capital allocation ourself?

Well, jay, I think musa did something you could never do, which is, admit a mistake.

Here we can .

all visual, quick.

What would I have?

My first mistake, i'm certainly willing to adit. I'm waiting.

imagining that iran, one hundred billion for sovereign ad of one hundred thousand for doctors. And Dennis, and you can kind of put yourself, you can put yourself in masses, position.

love, sex in the morning, sex in the morning.

Like to sex up early bit. A big lesson here. You think sex go to one ninety.

Have there been liberating?

And wow.

Look, I think that soft office make some decisions that were, you know where they were sort of peak decisions. They were a little bit bubble that take chips off the table and they publish should have it's easy to to fall into these bubbles because the psychology that is so powerful and as you know, build pointed out, these bull markets are more like a saw tooth, which is they gradually go up for nine, ten, eleven, twelve years.

And then when they end, they the second elevator going down. So you know, if the market has continued for another couple of years, mostly would made a lot of money. In any event, lucky took responsibility for the losses. This was a very, you think of culturally japanese speech, I mean, hidden commit, suppose at the end. But that was kind of.

we had that direction. That was the camera off. Oh my god, what are you doing with that sort?

IT was the verb equivalent, basically. And lucky, ook, responsibility. What else can you do?

Now, one thing I, we cooped about is the idea that that softbank caused this bubble. You know, I wasn't just soft. K, we had tons of the money.

Tiger had huge funds. They were delaying very quickly. But there is a lot of so called tourist money, basically money from crossover funds. Investors were not primarily vcs came into the ecosystem of the last years and a law that was driven by sovereign and by liquidity.

So you know, you can't forget that we attend trillion dollars of liquidity pumped into the system over last couple years, and many billions of that found this way into the techno system. And fundamentally, you know, VC is not that scalable there. There was an attempt to make IT scalable. There is an attempt .

to push more money into VC. Why are people tried? right?

It's a craft business. I mean, IT is already .

is just that if you try to scale, your returns will go to zero.

Yeah those kind of the same thing, right?

Like I I want to just critique the strategy for a second because um you we're talking about as if market conditions caused these massive right downs, and that is the only reason that these funds have suffered.

But you know.

if you read a lot of the stories of masses, investments in the number of these companies and before list is available and how much he invested, there are many, many stories, and i've heard many of them personally from CEO that have met with musa and raise money from him. You go into msa, you tell some the bigger the story you tell, the more excited he gets, the more of the world you can capture.

And you go when you're raising one hundred million dollars, he's like all four hundred million. You say you're raising twenty five million is like I want to give you hundred and fifty million and um his his motivation was always give you more capital so you can go capture the market. And the problem in that model is that by giving you so much money, capital becomes your primary asset as a business.

And capital needs to be the fuel that enables your assets as a business to accelerate. But as soon as capital itself becomes your primary asset, the business is doomed to fail. And that's a really key point.

If you let's say and me let me be very specific about what I mean, let's say you have a, uh, direct consumer business that requires online marketing and your business grows well. You spend one hundred dollars to acquire a customer, suddenly someone says, here's a billion dollars to spend on acquiring customers. As soon as you have to start deploying a billion dollars, your cost of acquisition goes up, the number of customers our spend goes down, and the business itself starts to look upside down and fail.

And that's what happened with the number of these businesses that musa put in and he put oversize checks in. We work is a really well documented example in terms of what happened when they started to accelerate their beyond the natural course of the business because of the amount capital that they took. IT really started to urt the fundamental profitability in the economics of the core assets of the business.

And um this strategy theoretically can work to a degree, but mostly took a to a level that had not been seen before. I think I highlight the three guys, like back in twenty eleven, I think when in rats and horror ds, they pitched me on this day, I was going to raise twenty five million dollars in my company. Mark was like, we will give you forty million dollars.

You can accelerate your girl. We need to go capture the market, Peter. T L, these terms go after the market and these and blitz scaling and and blitz scaling and read hoffman with bless scaling.

And and the motivation is, look, we will give you more money because the the core asset of the business works, the core asset of the business work, so the money should be more fuel for the fire. The problem is, if you over indulge, if you put too much money and and me, the asset cannot handle that much capital, the whole thing collapses. And I had so many documented example of this in his portfolio. And I think that the strategy worth highlighting that there are some issues with that strategy across all these business categories. IT doesn't always work.

The court issue here, I think, is and then I i've got to use sex and that much the court should you hear that you are describing this exactly correct. And IT really is up to the founder to decide what they are going to do with that capital. The we work example is so instructive because they were buying under market uh buildings in the in the tender line and then marking them up to you know class a office space and getting those Prices once they got the most of money, he started buying class a and offering kid at class b Prices. And we flip the whole business .

upside the rate at which you can deploy capital ah does not flex, right. And so in all businesses, understanding the rate at which you can deploy capital to grow is critical to understand how much capital you can raise and the then if you raise too much money and and you beyond what the natural condition of the businesses in terms of capital deployment ment, the economics fall apart and the business itself looks terrible, and eventually you will have a right down.

And the distraction on the founder is the key. And the look at at of newman, he was easily distracted that we started buying surf machines and companies and start king because .

you kid naturally deploy that much capital so you find unnatural ways to .

deploy and may build on that point. I think there was a belief on the part of soft bank that they did publicly, a spouse, which is they could be the king maker. And in fact, we had some startups that were in competitive markets and soft bank would basically announce that we're going be annoying.

We're going be picking in a winner, annoyin a winner and writing them a huge check. And everyone kind of had to play along, because if your competitor got one hundred or five hundred million dollars check, then you be prison bly way behind. So there was this belief that they could be a kingmaker and make the difference.

And I think that what we saw is that, for whatever reason, partly because of the dynamic of febs talking about that, that strategy just didn't really work that well. And what IT really goes down to is that VS can be helpful, but they don't ultimately a cause the the winning companies to be the winner. Um so this idea that you could be a king maker, I think was a little bit flad.

I think one way that tiger actually improved on this model was that they never tried to be a kinda ker. They just they actually went the other direction, which is we're going to own less your company. They tried to be passive, non deluded capital, and they would do high Price rounds, but here with reasonable sized checks.

But they didn't try to go for twenty five, thirty percent at a late stage. And founder did like that model Better. Now as I turned out, they both had the market timing wrong. But I think this can make her aspect was a problem. And what one of the aspect of that I think is that and I I want to beat up on soft too much of this. Nice about the minutes I could, but I think one of the mistakes they made is you'd to see them writing mult hundred million dollar checks into companies that were at a very, very early stage for prety public companies, Frankly, that we thought were like sea investments.

Brand list was the perfect example that IT was a company that made like soap s and dishwashers and cereal, but they had no brand on IT was a good of this and they have they gave them two hundred million dollars. And I was like, this is a seat .

stage company makes, I mean, look, they wrote like five hundred million dollars seat checks and for robotics companies effectively and is because that you know the soft cata thesis. And I think sometimes if you again, this goes back to king maker, if if you're a VC and you think you're the one with the thesis and you're the one is going to make the difference, it's actually a seduction false y to fall into is the founder as the thesis.

And you can you can only do so much to help and you can't really force IT. And so I think they ended up making some cutting some really big checks into some companies that we're really risky. And you know the way that we do growth investing is that, you know its modest one based we're writing the the size of the check is proportional to them out of proof that the company has.

And I look the nice, i'll say about soft bank is recently, we have actually done some such deals with them that I think are some really good deals. And you've written checks that I think are appropriate to the size of the of the company in the amount of proof they have. And theyve been really easy to work with. And I look forward to doing more deals with them. But I think IT would behove them to do more deals like that where again, chat sizes related to prove.

I think, that soft bank in hindsight, made one critical, critical error and only one, and everything else was sort of a that the complete with that one air, which is that in their fund documents, they made this a ten year fund. Now let me explain why is that an error? That is, the status go for all these funds. And the more nuances, part of that decision to make IT attentive fund is that your investment period is only five years. So you're only allowed to put the money in for the first five and then you have to basically manage the portfolio because there's an expectation that you raise a new fun.

So if all of us something you have a hundred billion dollars in a five year investing life, the math says, oh my gosh, OK, well, I need to put twenty billion out per year and then you try to look for Better or let's say, fifty companies a year, while the mean check size now allow balloons to four hundred million. That was the air you see afterwards, the very, very smart private equity folks who saw that, that was there, fixed. So black stone, silver lake, when they came on the heels of stock bank, what they did was they raised funds with a fifteen and twenty year year life.

And what that allows them to do, and what would you would have allowed master to do in this situation, was just slow IT way, wait down, pay yourself and do fewer deals with much more capital and then be patient and say, i'm going to have a ten year. And I think that, that would have saved them. And they would have looked incredible right now because they would be the kingmaker in a moment where there is no money flowing venture and A H tech. So in my opinion, I think he was just that I was such an ambitious fee that when IT came time to execute, whoever was really in charge of those details kind of fucked up. And they should have realized the math didn't work for a five year fund life, and they should have made IT a ten year fund life or ten year investment life, which would have put a twenty year fun life on the thing.

And I think they would have been fun. yeah. I mean, if you look at IT sixty months, maybe you take out August.

And like the holidays, you got specially fifty months to deploy, hundred hundred billion, two billion a months, five hundred million a week. I mean, how do you even process that many deals? It's impossible.

The quality of the diligently cesspool has to go to zero.

Yeah, is IT was a crazy strategy.

If you can break, you get money. If you can get a meeting.

you get the money. I mean, basically, I mean, and if they had just I i'll say there there was one you no.

And IT forcing you to have a team that is so broad and large and defuse that is not this game. This is another thing I would love to you know for just about correct, correct. Investing has never, will never and is not ever a team.

Sport OK IT is like basketball. You can be on a team, but you are step curry, or you are not story. You are dream on Green, or you are not dream on Green.

You are lebron James or you're not. They are jared Smith on a team. They are Christ and thomson on a team. And you come together and the team can win a championship.

But there are these exceptional individuals, yes, and the firms that I ve really done well consistently over decades embrace that philosophy, benchmark supply. You know, these guys don't try to create this team oriented, glad handing approach. But they also don't allow the teams to get sort of views that there's five hundred people run around ripping money in because you basically then return the data of the market. And if the market doesn't look good in that vintage, then all of your returns look pretty crack.

The lesson for me and all of this is I think we we talk about riding your winners on the show that came from just people understand when we said write your winners and its famous ly in the in the opening song here, what we were talking about was like, don't sell your entire position like once I was all the entire apple position or or other people i've done. But hearing your position would have changed this whole story. He appeared ten, twenty percent of some of these names that we're breaking.

And I disagreed the way I .

think the opposite. He we've had .

IT up a year ago to koa, just put out an entire document and a road map for becoming an every Green fund. But and I read that, and what I thought to myself is all of this looks incredible unless the market goes down and .

then the market .

down and then the market went weighed down life because there whole these is we're going to park and hold money. Well, okay, but they also allowed a revolving liquidity mechanism for their L P. S.

You know, your cancer foundation, you want to fund cancer research, and you expect a qua give you back money. You fill out a form, and a qua basically fronts you the money. Well, excuse me, but you can see how all of a sudden this can very quickly get out of control.

Because then where display at that might theyll have to borrow IT or liquidates and positions, but the whole point is to not liquidity positions. This this is what they said. yeah. So my point is, I really think, and this before, I think a vcs job is to be A V C, it's hard enough to do that job well. And if you think that you're gonna cast cate across all asset classes and do Better than the market, is an extremely high bar that creates tremendous pressure and forces you to bring things on like dead and all of these leverage lines, which when markets go up or work in your favor, but can very quickly turn against you.

I disagree, ability because when if you look at when you in a private company and you own some private chairs, you know the revenue, you know the velocity, you know the management team, you have more insights in everybody. You got a massive information edge because it's all based on insider information before it's public.

And pairing your positions in private can be amazing because you have some overvalued company because something like moster tiger comes along that overvalues IT. So for venture funds, I think when you start in these five hundred is paring ten percent, pairing twenty percent along the way. Which muscle could have done in these private names, especially would have been brilliant.

You're saying don't distribute and just hold on and use them and give give your l pes of liquidity. No, no.

no. I'm saying if you have the opportunity to sell in secondary, you should pair your position in your winners ten, twenty percent two or three times that's i'm saying. If not, I did that this will be a different position.

But like you're using soft, you're using apple and choy as an example. You do remember the trajectory of apple basically went to a four billion dollar market cap for years. Language ing.

I mean, the the idea that a quay would have held those shares because they had some proprietors lude rous. Why is a luis? What if I just had a philosopher keeps the company was on death stores. You can see the youtube videos. When Steve jobs came back, he said, uh, we may not make IT.

yes, but to math, that is part of the opportunity. But putting that aside, that's exactly what's the way is doing is are saying we want to hold the legendary companies, the legendary brands .

with the great founders. What's all easy in hindi? How do you do IT today?

Well, is unity?

Is unity a legendary company? Or should you have distributed at one hundred and sixty five dollars here? I'm such a hard time and i'm saying .

you can mitigate that question by paying your position ten, twenty percent so you have the best of both world. So x.

what do you think? Well, I think it's it's hard to pair down a position while the company is still private because the the company don't don't want you to buy a large. But but once they do become public, then the question is when you distributed, we talked about this, I think IT sounds like soften. We were sitting on quite a few large public positions and could have distributed i'm not feeling familiar their structure. But given that, that all this debt seems like you'd want to pay off all the debt and as soon as you could and missing the .

chance to preferred preferred coupon, the attire, P I F and audio every year, I think it's like three or four billion dollars. It's well, it's documented, but that's the six percent that that they were owed on their fifty billion dollars.

But do they pay IT off? Yeah I so that I may like I would just say this bubble, it's easy, your high side, twenty, twenty, it's really easy to point out these mistakes after the markets cratered. You know my experience with these bubbles, whether you go back to nine, two thousand, nine, nine or twenty one, is when you're in them, they're very powerful psychologically.

And talking about how everything is going up. And we, I think, actually had some really commentary on the show about back in november about how I could be the peak, how IT could be all liquidity fuelled. Uh, we didn't know for sure, but there were some pretty good predictions on this pot. But by and large, it's pretty hard to to know whether whether is .

there a grounding metric that you use and open up to free burger and than everybody else want to know that the market is overheated to free burgers or something you look at and go, okay, we've disconnect this from reality Price, the earnings Price to cells, uh, some valuation metrics of the things you look for. So you know that this is overheated and maybe IT is time to pair positions. What would have you learned over now our third collective uh .

downmarket valuation, trophy hunting? I would say a pretty good indicator of things being things being um explain with that is in a heated market. I give the. The businesses, the C E O, the founder, the venture firms, everyone is all about how much you can make up your investment as opposed to talking about the quality of the business and the quality of the earnings.

Um and then you revert back, as we just recently did to now people talking about, okay, uh, how strong are the gross margins of this business? How effectively can they deploy capital? What's the return on invested capital? Key metrics s around the fundamentals of the business versus the value that the market is willing to pay for the business.

And the more heated the market gets, the more everyone focuses on terms like unicorn jaco orn, you know, and and that becomes the key metric is supposed to saying this business is so good for every dollar they spend, they make three dollars in growth profit in twelve months. That's what fundamentally says that a high quality, great you know valuable business over time as opposed to hear what the market is telling me it's worth today. And if the market is telling you it's worth that much today um and and that's what you focus on, you inevitably end up in these kind of bubble moments where you miss out on focusing on core value creation, which will actually pay off much, much more .

over time. You pointed out a another signal, hey, win. Smart people who have the largest amount of capital in the markets are clearing positions. Uh, maybe that a single over top.

And then I think is a really good inside by freeze g when the conversation the narrative is about the valuation and status in vanity metrics s as opposed to the quality of the earnings. That's a really good indicator in a bubble. Maybe you started clearing positions.

What are indications for you that were either in a bubble or the market is undervalued? Because we're really talking about this timing, right? Timing is very important.

is not possible. This is why I think that you have to define what game you wanna play before you start playing the game.

okay?

This is why I think it's kind of nonsense. Co, for example, I believe that at best, I am an equity investor in technology companies or things that have a technology bias, because I can generally understand them maybe, you know, a few seconds faster than everybody else, which allows me to make a decision a little bit quick, but if follow a sudden I started investing in that, you should expect i'll lose my money because I don't know what i'm doing.

And that's not the game where I had any advantage. So I think the most important thing to do is to not try to do all of this crazy stuff, because this is what happens in moments where either things are very, very good or things are very, very bad. People try to create all these stupid rules and the rule, the only rule is there are no rules.

So I don't know. I just think it's like sticks to your kitting. If you're a product builder, bill products, if you're an early stage investor, just do that.

It's hard enough to do any one of those things really, really, really well. But this idea that you know you're onna come up with like some mosaic a system, I think it's just highly suspect. And I think the market returns have showed that everybody that tries has failed except for maybe one or two fact not to work. What's the point? So I don't know if your Normal state investor make good deals and and give the shares and book the win.

That's yeah that's my classroom sex.

Where are you are that there is a couple of metrics that i'll be looking at from now on that I was a paying a huge amount of attention to before. One is the Price A R of the median public access company. And so like basta has his great charts where you saw that the historically that number was around six.

You know the medium ask company was trading IT about six times the next twelve months. Revenue and IT went all the later fifteen during this sort of covet bubble in twenty twenty one. And for the high gross companies, which are the ones growing forty percent, twenty percent IT went from you know like eight to thirty five.

So so i'll definitely looking at that. And you know what you're looking for is just how off the historical mean are we positive ly or negatively because these public valuations are the exit comes for you, the private markets and those valuations to eventually trickle down. And so if there is a bubble in the public markets, IT will trickle down to the private markets.

That would be like one metric. I mean, again, it's not something that like affects me daily, but had something I want to periodical keep tabs on. The other is just interested policy.

I mean, i've never spent so much time in my entire career like looking at inflation, interest rates. And I have this year because who knew how much this stuff was affecting us? I thought I was a micro investor.

I thought I was just king companies on a micro level, as IT turns out, we are all massively impacted by macroeconomic policy. And you know IT got so we didn't even notice that the the zero industry policy, they are along with the quantity ety of easing this response to be exceptional measures that started back in two thousand eight. But we stop noticing them.

They continued for years and years and years. They continued until last year. And again, we just stop noticing because we ve got used to we kind of got to hooked on, hooked on drugs. So the market did. So i'm just glad to pay a little bit more attention to what the fed is doing now.

And you know, if you go all way back to the dot com bubble was interesting is that the fed fund rate back in a one thousand and nine and nine wasn't low IT was like four percent um IT wasn't like IT was even today. And we still had a bubble. But what pop the bubble was that interest strates went for four to six percent in from nine, nine and nine to two thousand and that will pop the bubbles. So you know I don't know if will ever have a situation again like we had over last years with with deserve but um I mean that probably looking for that next time is fighting the last battle so of the next one but you do probably have to be a little bit more aware of monitary policy with the feed is doing you know .

this chart exited six when the vision fund benchmarking against peer funds that from off to put into the group chat is absolutely spectacular. IT puts a security insight and softbank, you know, large large funds are against each other fund size, one hundred billion for soft bank, eight billion for scores, six point three billion for insight and future max point earlier, th Epace i s r eally c razy. One hundred thirty .

deals per month, but then the average chat size is six hundred and twenty million .

versus one hundred thirty and seventy and the deals per month three point five versus point six versus four point two. So inside, I going pretty fast with small checks, soft and going .

very fast is really coa has the benefit of being able to back test against forty years of returns. And so if essentially what they're saying is there's really no more than five or six companies a year that are worth investing in, that's a really big signal that's worth thinking about. And so you know, five or six companies, maybe they can absorb even six hundred million dollars each. You know IT still puts you at three and half four billion dollars, doesn't put you at twenty, which is what you but one hundred into the ground in three .

billion a month. I mean, my lord, it's like boosters, millions or something.

It's it's like some crazy for, I think, fairness in fairness of bank. Again, you know these were the same guys that invested in yahoo. They invested in all of these you know dot com companies and brought them to japan, including great businesses like cisco. You know these guys have been big time serial winners. I think the tactical mistake was not having a ten year in gusman life.

I mean, and we can be sitting here next year. Alibaba could double in value. A couple of the other positions could recover fifty percent, okay, but we could be sitting there and they could be they could have closed the gap massively. Edit is possible, I think, actually a good jump of point here. Uh, great discussion, gentlemen.

Do we want to talk about the markets? We've got the inflation print sacks, I guess depending on the political park here and and you for eight point five percent or zero zero percent months over month uh, if you're democrats, if you're republican is a point five percent in our a polar ized times uh, but what does this tell us? Uh, sax, I just at least about maybe inflation is tipped over and we going to be flat for a little bit.

That obviously caused the market to rip a little bit. And we had this incredible jobs report, were now at three point five percent unemployment and let's many jobs as we predicted. I mean, it's pretty extraordinary what happened the last thirty days to the to these are prints.

Yeah, I look, I think that overall, the economic data is mixed. But we ve got a couple of good data points in the last month. So inflation did decrease from nine point one to eight point five percent.

Inflation was until now measured on a year over year basis, not a month of a month basis. But since we got the first good months of a month reading all this on now, it's been redefined to be on a month of a month basis. Just this is the same thing that happened with a definition of recession where a recession used to mean two quarters of negative GDP growth.

Of course that happened.

And so all the sudden the definition became a noble. We have to defer to this um this economic board that won't render a decision till next year. By the way, if that we're true, how could we ever contemporary ously talk about a recession if you have to wait until this economic export declare recession .

a year from now, the press .

could never have ever reported on a that there is any bad data at all. Now look, I I think the data is catastrophic. I don't think it's a anyone is interest to catastrophes the data, but there's a lot of negative data here. I mean, look, inflation is still very high, eight half percent.

If you had told any of us that in August that inflation would still be a half eight and hf percent of beginning this year, we would have said that is horrible because remember the investment banks were all saying come down to three percent by so inflation is still high. The jaw's picture is good. Um more technical in a recession if I were to predict I think what's going to happen now I think you look for a double dip.

I wouldn't be surprised at all if in q three or q four. We're back to positive GDP growth. But I don't think we're really out of the woods because I think it's a pretty good chance that next year these these um rate hikes really kick in IT takes six, nine months of them to rip through the economy.

So if you look at the construction industry, the construction install has been devastating. Ted new housing stars, you talk to the builders, they tell you that the construction industry has to been club red by these rate hikes. The inventories are piling up and the affordability of there's a change today about the affordability of home Prices are a four year low. And so the construction is is really the bell weather when a recession starts, there are the ones who are first impacted, but it's probably going to take .

this my month because the loans are so expensive and cost of capital is expensive, I can start the projects him.

So look, if I I think we're in a shallow technical recession right now, I bet that we probably bounce out of IT in q three or q four, but I think there's a significant risk that we're back in. We were back in the next year.

just my guess, a free we be talking about consumer credit whole bunch by now, pay later household debt now totals more of the sixteen trillion credit card baLances, uh, make up one hundred and ninety billion of that. Obviously, student loans, mortgage, other things are in there in the number of credit cards, uh, is now at a massive high, five hundred, uh fifty million of the mission here in the united states.

We added a massive amount of debt is still lower. The credit that, just to be clear, is still lower than the free pandemic level of nine hundred thirty billion. But consumers seem to be taking out credit, I guess, to deal inflation or to enjoy their lives because they're not stopping their spending. And we see that in some stocks in the earnings reports that are coming out as well. So which which are take on this, you know, conflicting data we have or is have you made some sense of that?

What is your prediction of Q Y? Are you asking what my take is on sumer credit .

micro o situation here we've .

got consumer credit.

you know, people taking on a lot of debt, wild jobs look great. Wall inflation is still high. What does that look like, you know if we going to cue for and next year, what is this telling you? And they're some signaling you can take from this sax at shallow recession thinks we might double dip. I'm kind of getting to your prediction .

of q four a petite I an i've said this. I first set IT in may at the all in summit, and I said IT again on the show twice. great. Which is I think that the definition of a recession of negative GDP growth when you're coming off of inflated GDP is you know it's it's not a binary catch all term.

I mean, the fact is we had uh inflated assets and um as a result of inflated asset, we had inflated earnings and we had inflated evaluation and we inflated income. And you know now the capitals coming out, things are going to go down and have a base. But I don't think that this should be deemed that there is something fundamentally negative about the U.

S. economy. The biggest risk I still see is this rising consumer credit baLance, particularly in a rising rate environment, people are taking on more debt.

If you look at the new ork uh fed here all just give you the latest um this is the household debt credit report. They put out household debt rises to sixteen trillion dollars in the growth in housing and on housing baLances. And so there are variable rate loans in there in the auto, uh, home and credit or markets.

Those variable rates mean that as interest rates climb, the amount to service existing that will go up each month um and the amount of debt that being taken on is also going up each month. And so the key economic question is, does the uh income gain that's being the asset value gain that's being experienced outpace the increase in a monthly debt service needed for a large number of consumer student loans? Are also in here, by the way.

And so when you put that all together, um it's it's a very technical question, which is technically where do you start to see default ize? And when you have default to rise, then the money that old in the services that are the service payments that are oh on that debt trickles through the economy because bond started default um equity started to decline and so on. So um you know I this is why I can speak at a high level from a macro point of view that the rate at which debt is going up and consumer credit is going up and the rate at which rates are climbing that affect the revolving um and variable rate um uh debt the consumers hold could outpace the income in the acid value in particularly when equities are down.

Four one case are down, house housing Prices are down and so there's a tipping point and a when that starts happen, then you start to really hit um an economic crush. And I i've mentioned as multiple times now that it's the thing you know I would kind of watch most closely, while there are core elements of the current economy that looks strong, um there are uh real uh, concerns around whether consumers can keep up with their dead payments uh, in the market. Voters ahead yeah how about .

how you following this consumer credit surge and you think that this could be a black one type event? This could be no, because it's right here from.

O, K, yeah yeah. I would say like .

a massive contains where there's massive number of default creating a black swan contain like event. But yes, so it's it's not it's maybe had an implement side. What do you think you know this is important data uh.

or impacting your view on things? Yeah, I think it's important is part of them. I don't I don't really know. Look what we trying to get from this discussion. I don't understand like, like are we trying to predict what's gonna happen? I mean, I think David basically set IT best. Like if you actually just take a step back and stop overlaying what we want to happen, look, reality is all of us want things to go up and we like IT went, there's money in the system and everything's flush.

But if we had said last year that we would open an envelope and, you know, we would show these inflation prints, we would be shocked and we would have been scared and quite honest, you know, in the process in november, when I started at selling, I would have still even more violent, 也 没 来说。 And all I can say is I saved my ass in november last year looking at what's happened in the last six, eight months. So I don't know.

I just think that if you look at the C P I print um and you look at the components, we were saved because energy basically fell off a Cliff. And for whatever reason, a bunch of people decided not to travel. And you know we didn't import as much loyal and we were able to keep cost contained and that keep C P.

I from being really out of control. But again, we're in the summer where we don't have the pressure and energy that we're onna have in october, november this year. So I I really don't know.

I mean, I just think that there is like freeburg has his pet issue. I have my pet issue sux as his petition e you ask a hundred economists, you'll have their own pet issue, housing affordability, whatever is. The point is we have a hundred waco problems.

And the question is which mouse traps sets off the rest of moustache? I have no idea。 Um and so you know I just think that right now things are a little bit too calm and that makes me feel very unsettled.

Another shoe might drop. I mean, the point of the conversation is to try to understand and make Better decisions in capital allocation, company formation in placing bets in the next year. So I think .

that's the point of the discussion. We now have the spectacle of the president saying he's gonna pass an inflation reduction act to solve a zero percent inflation problem to get us out of a recession that he says doesn't exist. You guys know this, but the politics of in the political comedy on this absurd I think what we're describing here is to simply more honest, which is to say that the data is mixed. We don't exactly know it's going to happen.

yeah. I mean, the thing that I think is encouraging is when you look at the jobs data and you look at the debt that consumers are putting on, my theory is, and I could be wrong, that people want to keep spending. They want to keep living their lives. They are taking on a little bit of debt to deal with inflation and to keep spending, but they're also going back to work.

And i'm seeing that anecdotally, a lot more people going back to work, and the number show that, that feels to me and I said this on previous episodes that that feels like a possible you very helpful path out here and I think you brought IT up sacks as well, which is hay. If we have increased participation, um that's great crisis. Monetary velocity cries participation in the economy. That's a possible path out. Do do you feel like, uh.

that's still holding from secular decline on that trend for twenty five years? So maybe maybe on the margins, a few folks um run of stimulus and decide to go get a job. But I don't think again, it's it's kind of like, you know when you're when you're the black checking in vegas and strap strap ratee, I feel like all like what we're talking about right now is clapping as a strategy. Maybe this can happen. Maybe that have you know maybe it'll start raining gold fucking and coins that we can use and .

just what yeah I .

feel like the last fifteen minutes have been like not .

a good conversation is .

a great conversation. But I really good check out because look, the structure of the problem, I think is very well defined, which is we have an inflation problem. Great IT went down from nine point, went eight point five percent, really high.

Two to three percent would would be Normal. okay. So that's half the problem is how fast is influencing to go back down to Normal based on interest rate cuts.

The other side of the problem is increases is sorry, intestate increases, not cuts. The other side of the problem is how much will the economy will be heard by these rising rates? And those are the two variables.

And we see that there is a slowdown. There's still a lot of jazz being filled, which is good, but there is unquestioned and economic slowdown. And those are the two sides of the equation, and we just need to see some economic data.

IT was going play out over the several years.

If you guys don't want to talk about the new day.

Many ways, inflation or.

Recession or jobs or anything anymore unless there's something really for us all to say like something news come out. Well, sometimes the economic .

port was really important. I mean, that was that was a matter of print. Not try. Is on the track .

of ata point. There some bad job reports before that print.

I think we should stop doing the recession inflation chat every .

week and honestly, like A A Better job moderating.

Can you not you can know you guys ask to talk about IT. You guys put something to talk. And I let's think, what do you want? I think soft was a great chat, I think was a good talk.

We do what you guys think about every Green fun. Tell me what you guys think about that. Come on, genius.

This a code like when they restructured. Are you joking?

I love, I love of these two code, silent. No, I didn't .

want to interruption.

I don't think I know why you guys are trying so hard to avoid the the obvious news of this week.

If trump actually had some material in moral logo that was related to the clear program and um you know there is an attempt to try and get recover those documents through Normal means and they were not recoverable, what would your course have been if you were the direct of the fdi in the president of the us. In that condition? Because I think that seems to be the party line of what's going on here.

well, the democratic .

kind of spin on what's going on here. But like you know honestly, that circumstance, what do you think would have been appropriate if there's some sort of confidential material related to our nuclear program on nuclear weapons, something there in those materials that were attempted to be recovered or we're taken without approval and then they try to recover IT? No, assume as known a ferrous intent what would be the right kind .

of course here well I I so I don't know exactly what's going on. I just think that um you can't necessarily give the f sadly I don't think you nicely give the FBI the benefit. The doubt here and light to there are history, but let's back up.

I mean, first, you had this this rate on moral logo where you got thirty F I. They're not wearing suits with hole street side arms are Carrying a fifteenth weapons of war fingers. Just outsides the trigger guard, the wearing body armor IT looks like a very military rate on mario g.

It's really and you look at tweet by um Andrew como for example, or uh Andrew Young. I mean, these guys actually turn to be pretty, I think, intellectually honest democrats on this point saying this is unprecedented. It's really going here. I want to read this by to answer freeze, answer .

freebase question.

I'm getting there. I know you going to cut me outside. I'd like to just read this tweet.

So maybe because no may've give more credence to Andrew Young. He said, i'm no trump fan. I want him as far away from the White house is possible.

But a fundamental part his appeal has been, that is, hima gets a corrupt government establishment. This raise strengths. That case for millions americans will see this on just persecution. You have Andrew common saying, D O G M S, to me, explain the reason for rate must be more than a search for inconsequently archives or will be viewed as a political tactic, can undermine any future credible investigation and legion acy of generic investigations. And let me read one other tweet by elan that's not directly about the speed tweet.

This on joy eleven so months ago and he said, I don't hate the man, but it's time for trump to hang up his head and and see on the sunset that was the part that was widely reported. But he also said dam should also call off the attack, don't make IT to that trumps the only way to survive, to regain the presidency. I think there was a lot of wish in that.

And you know, i'm enough to remember when the case for biding, getting elected, is we have to move past this partisan warfare, this extreme ranker and arrangement, and we were told that the media, you are all these people, I, T, D, S, that that their psychosis was due to trump. And if we could just move past trump, s this, all this sort of parts and warfare would end. And now and I was certainly hoping that would be true.

And now sadly, IT seems like we're right back in this thing um where we're right back with the media being obsessed with T D S. Portraying this narrative that somehow is a trader and what is this whole thing? Hang on, just these two words.

Nuclear documents will listen until they actually produced those documents. I'm to suspend judgment because the FBI, the last time they did, they remember the manufactured a falsified warrant to the five core for this type of investigation. They have that history. So i'm just going to suspend judgment on what's going on here until they actually produce the documents are talking about. Can I ask now the stints.

do you honestly question the integrity of leadership and agents? H, B, F, B. I.

Are you series like you? Don't think you are. Let me read this tweet for a Michael .

burry I know tweet I to hear your point.

I agree with what Michael berry saying. So I think something help. There's lot of thoughtful commentary about this. And what berry says is megger, who were LED the FBI for five decades, denied the the office existed, thought the civil rights movement shield of the K, K, K, multiple presence acknowledge fear of him.

So what he's saying is that the FBI, since its inception, has political origins, basically metalled politically in the affairs of the country. Then he says the FBI lie to the via court. This is back in two thousand sixteen.

Totally true. Alter the emails, lead lies to the press to get trump. Nothing shocking. So freeboard, listen, I don't know whether the FBI telling the truth, but are you honestly going to say that the FBI leadership has never in political, that is never harbor or pursued their own agenda, and that is never had .

a desire .

to go after we we saw, we saw the text messages from comi struck page mccain. I mean, these guys basically took IT upon themselves when truck was elected to be the insurance policy here and in. FBI lawyer pleaded guilty to falsifying documents to seek a warrant from the via court.

So I just think anything possible here. And now i'm not saying the FBI is lying about this, I don't know, but the idea that the FBI is automatically entitled to the benefit of the doubt in light of their proven in history of basically pursuing trump like a had pursued the White whale. I mean, yeah, these guys have been after him.

I'm second. And the reason i'm interrogating sex on this is like it's just so telling to me that a guy like like you sex .

in your position are are actually .

questioning the integrity of like the highest justice authority and institution in the united states. Um really says a lot about kind of the state of of the U. S. Citizens, the state of our society today, I think that speaks a lot. I know it's incredible.

And redi o said in his book about how during these periods when the empires began their decline and when you're chAllenge with kind of the economic conditions that the us. Are, chAllenge by printing lots of money, lots of debt, very hard to service all that debt. And we have a ton of obligations over the next decade. Two that are going na be very hard to meet given our economic uh, growth and inflation conditions right now that you start to see these sorts of behaviors historically to happen six times in the last five hundred years where large empires like the united states or large um you economic powerhouses like the united states started to decline, that the civil war begins, that the institutions get chAllenged by a minority and then a my majority of the citizens y and IT really starts to crumble and and and chAllenge the the integrity of the institution, its ability to hold itself together.

I argue .

points. It's an incredible condition for us to find ourselves.

Yeah, but but my question did not create that condition there. This lack of trust is earned. It's earned by the FBI in light of behaviors they took just a few years ago. Now listen, i'm not defending trump.

P, I don't know what he did or didn't do OK, but I think that you can just accept at face value without further proof these league, what are basic league comments by the FBI? And I listen, i'm not a naive child. I mean, the fact the matter is that power can be corrupt and power corrupts.

okay? And we have seen that the FBI from its earliest days did engage in corruption. And more recently against trump himself had of an data against trump so simple as well.

So all i'm doing is i'm not going to automatically accept at face value what they're saying until I see some proof. Now i'm not saying that they're wrong or they're are lying about this. I'm simply say i'm not to accept to the face value.

Yeah, i'm like I remember truck truck was a ted on the platform that there is this deep state, that there is institutional corruption, that there is malay and lethargy in these institutions of the government that are funded on the order of trillions of dollars a year, and that that's what he was intended to, to go and and blow up and repair. And there's a very strong and and potentially close the majority percentage of voting americans that that feel that there is this core deep state corruption, institutional lethargy that is chAllenging our ability to give everyone the freedom and liberties that they deserve.

These agencies are supposed to be non partisan. They are not supposed to have a horse in the race. And what we saw is that when in office, and these came out clearly the the top levels of the FBI, these top agents are not talking about the rank and file, not talking about the field agents.

I understand a lot of them are long in order types. You ve republican, I get IT, but i'm talking about the leadership, the highly political leadership. And wash IT was pretty clear that they had a horse in the race.

They did not like trump, and they were out to get trump. And you know, again, trump is not my preferred candidate for twenty four. What the FBI is done with this RAID, quite Frankly, I think, is polarize the outcomes. They are basically to send trump to the big house or the White house. I mean, because now there are republicans are rally around trump, I think he's me very, very hard to beat for economy and twenty twenty four, unless the FBI comes up with iron clad evidence to show that he did something wrong. I care less about .

who did what and what was done wrong. I care more about the fact that this conflict is escalating and it's creating a real condition of continuing a polarization. And IT really is the the conditioning that you know, I and had some historians in in the White house, there was a report on this last week and these historians spoke about how the conditions in the united states are just as they were right before the civil war and um and that there's real concern that yeah well, I mean, you know they go read the anecdotal reporting that was done on this thing but that was the general theme of the conversation and um you know I really really kind of um concerns me more that this level of discourse is escalating to a point of, uh you know there is corruption.

Uh this person is a criminal and that sort of discussion happens um you know in in more dire circumstances and more in in economic circumstances then has ever been seen. You know the us. Is the largest economy in history and we're now having these sorts of conversations that typically lead to some degree of conflict .

and it's really concerning. Well, I just think, listen, I think that trump was out of office. We were told that this partisan ranker would stop once he was out, and now they're pulling him back in. And all I can say is that when I think we know maybe one percent of the story, okay, I think this league around nuclear documents is IT feels like a selective leak .

is not sides are inflaming, all sides are and .

suspending judgment. When i'm saying is that when all the information comes out, there Better be a very significant there there.

No, no, no, we've made that impossible to because he trump came out and he basically said, uh, hey, listen, if you if these guys find something that was planted and now you're going to have at least in a ten or fifteen percent of population that believes, okay, this was planted IT wasn't actually there and you know so whatever the outcome is um will not be good. Nobody will be satisfied and both both of the extremes in the united states .

will be even more .

angry further inflame .

yeah for the index but .

I maybe the lack of faith in these institutions as well deserved because where is the the, you know, the the the prudence of all of this.

Like where is the the circumspect, thoughtful m method, thinking about all of the different outcomes that could be possible so that you exhaust every option, and this is the only option left? And then even then, if amErica garland was open to basically saying, unseal the warrant, why didn't you do IT before and say, we're going to have to serve this guy unless he actually gives us easy? There's all kinds of things. You have a temperature of this thing way down and to your point.

amount, they could let trump's lawyers watch them do the search so that nobody could claim anything about anything being planted. yeah. So memory .

index is spiking. I think that my key take away and all of this, I I care less about what prompted and what the D O J is, what if I did. But like i'm more concerned about where this access because the next step.

regardless us, makes us when you're on tilt at the poker table, what do you do? You cannot think. problem.

That's why when people are so inflamed with emotion, they start to make very poor decisions. I don't know whether the D O, J, in main justice made a poor decision or not. I think this is where we have to hold our breath and hope they didn't. I don't know whether the White house knew anything or not, but the whole point of all this is that we pulled this guy right back in to to the main stage. absolutely.

I mean, you're like I said, you've polarized the outcomes. You're either going to basically send this kind of jail you're going to send to the White else.

No, I think there's very likely. No, I think there's very likely middle path where nothing happens. But IT will further erode what freebies, which is it's just a little bit less trust in the D.

O. J. No integrity is erotic. And when the institute ity erotic, the fabric of what keeps everything working starts to fall apart. And i'm not saying this is some categories m civil war, happy, just to be clear, to limit L R happening next year. But it's an unfortunate decline in everyone's faith and and and the stability of the institutions that we all rely on to support and services because the inflaming index is going to go up and everyone is going to be criticising everything.

And that is why I think we really have to ask, was this really necessary? I mean, why do the D O J in the fb? I think this was necessary. Yeah because because were there .

I think that's a reasonable question, is like if these things were actually sitting in a box with a lot that they change, there must have been something more that was so grievous where you had to do something like this. Now, by the way, David just want I read, so I don't know it's too or not. I think maybe he was a very wise subside or mattie b subsidy.

These folks weren't armed to the teeth. They came in genes and shorts and t shirts. In fact, maye justice told them, like.

do IT is not in the photos. The photos use the photos outside.

I'm saying the people inside were there for six or seven hours, and only a few people knew .

about they were there for an ours. They basically told trumps people they couldn't be there there to leave. They told to turn the cameras.

And they had, like, highly military, got there. There were something like forty people, and something like thirty of them were heavily armed. The optics were .

terrible if there was some nuclear fitial material in moral logo. And through Normal means of communication, they had asked several times to have a returned and identified this for him, and he refused, which I think is a very reasonable kind of, you know, conditioning for what may have happened here. And then they said, OK, we got to go get IT.

There's no choice. This is like super confidential nuclear material. We gotto get this stuff. The only way to get IT is to serve a warrant and go there and get IT. You know, under those circumstances, you know, do you think that this would have been kind of inappropriate, like asking all other kind of communication means exhausted. What would you have done if you're president?

Listen, I think there is information. I could still come out to convince me that this RAID was warranted. I just time and seen that information yet. And I think the optics of IT we're terrible. I'd like right the point I was making.

I don't know why I wouldn't be good enough to send in the FBI agents with holstered side arms, you know not A R fifteen weapons of war, you know where the fingers were just outside the trigger guard IT looked like a paramilitary rate. So whoever was thinking about the political ratification, this clearly didn't do a very good job. I also don't know, I also don't know why you ouldn't give the courtesy to a four P.

I states to give them either mova hs up or to let his lawyers attend so that just for their own protection, so they can be accused of planning anything that would be smart. And I don't know why they would have said to trance people that they couldn't record IT and I don't know why they're been reports of the FBI went through melanie's cause IT. I mean, serious ly, they're like going through milli OS cloth.

It's just weird. It's weird. So there's a lot about this that we don't know. I'm not conclusively ly rendering judgment about IT because there are things that absolutely come out to compense me that I was warranted but I ever .

heard yet OK everybody will see on the next episode of you all in power.

I love your bases.

Rainman give.

We open sources to the fans .

and crazy.

Should all get a room have big, huge because sexual attention.

get.

My 东里。