Israel struck Iran. What's next?
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A little afternoon, Eastern Time on Thursday, President Trump was asked about the possibility that Israel might attack Iran. How, Mr. President, how imminent is an Israeli strike on Iran? Well, I don't want to say imminent, but it looks like it's something that could very well happen. Hours later, it did happen. Moments ago, Israel launched Operation Rising Lion, a targeted military operation to roll back the Iranian threat

to Israel's very survival. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The Iranian threat, according to Israel, is a secret program to build a nuclear bomb. We struck at the heart of Iran's nuclear enrichment program.

Iran insists its nuclear program is peaceful. Israel says its attacks overnight targeted Iran's military leadership and nuclear scientists and nuclear facilities across the country. According to Iran, they also killed dozens of civilians.

Eyes now turn toward Iran and its response. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei said on social media that "the Zionist regime has prepared for itself a bitter, painful fate, which it will definitely see."

Meanwhile, the U.S. has been negotiating with Iran to try to reach an agreement to limit its nuclear program. President Trump appears to hope the attacks will push Iran towards a deal. No more death, no more destruction, he posted on social media, adding, just do it before it is too late. But the Israeli attack could have the opposite effect, as he mused in that Thursday press conference before the strikes. I'd much prefer an agreement.

As long as I think there is an agreement, I don't want them going in because I think that would blow it. It might help it, actually, but it also could blow it. Consider this. The consequences of Israel's attack are potentially enormous, and they're also unpredictable. Ahead, NPR reporters dig for clues about where this conflict could be headed. From NPR, I'm Mary Louise Kelly.

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It's Consider This from NPR. Events have unfolded quickly since Israel's first attacks early Friday in Iran. In response, Iran has unleashed many missiles at Israel. We're going to talk through what we know about what has happened and where things might be headed. And I want to note we are taping this Friday afternoon, Eastern Time, and we are speaking with NPR correspondent Hadil El-Shalchi, who is in a bomb shelter in Tel Aviv.

Hello. Hi. And we also have NPR's national security correspondent, Greg Myrie, not in a bomb shelter in Washington. Hey, Greg. Hi, Mary Louise. Hey. Okay. So, Hadil, you start. You are in Tel Aviv. You're in a bunker. First question, are you okay? What are you hearing? What does it actually sound like there tonight?

Yeah, thank you. I'm doing okay. So we started actually getting these alerts from the Israeli military to stay near a shelter, you know, on our phones. Then the sirens came, and then we started hearing these massive explosions across the city. So we made a run for the shelter, which is...

Like you said, I'm speaking to you from there now. The Israeli military said that the booms we're hearing were interceptions by Israel's powerful air defense system, also known as the Iron Dome. But the military also confirmed that some areas in central Tel Aviv were struck, including a high-rise building

that caught fire. And also it said that five people have been injured from shrapnel. As I speak, I'm hearing more sirens, more booms outside. And friends have actually sent me videos showing red fireballs lighting up the sky. This is, of course, all happening as Israel is pushing ahead with its own attack. The military said it struck the central city of Isfahan, which has a nuclear fuel plant.

and explosions were also heard from around a nuclear facility called Fordo, which is underground. Earlier in the day, Iran said that Israel had struck its main nuclear facility called Natanz, and the attacks have delivered some major blows. Three top security officials, including the Iranian army's chief of staff, were killed, and many nuclear scientists, according to the Iranian military.

Well, and I will just note, Greg Myrie, I have stood beside you in Tel Aviv when the Iron Dome went up and you could hear it shooting down missiles. Unusual for the strikes to have made contact and to see actually injuries tonight in the country. Let me turn you to the U.S. role. What, if anything, is the U.S. role in events unfolding right now?

Well, we don't know everything, but Secretary of State Marco Rubio put out a clear statement shortly after the Israeli tax began to say the U.S. was not involved and that Iran should not go after U.S. targets. Now, the U.S. did get a heads up from Israel, and we kind of saw this in real time the past couple days as the U.S. took precautions with personnel in the region, diplomats and troops.

But it's not clear that the U.S. gave Israel a green light. Trump has consistently opposed Israeli military action against Iran, saying he wanted a negotiated deal to place strict limits on Iran's nuclear program. Trump was calling for a deal as recently as yesterday, but he didn't get a deal.

But today he was asked by Axios whether the Israeli strike undermined the talks. And Trump said, quote, I don't think so. Maybe the opposite. Maybe now they will negotiate seriously. However, we should note Iran says it won't take part in negotiations that were planned for Sunday.

Hedil, back to you in Tel Aviv. And I want to ask about the specifics of this Israeli attack on Iran, because there are some similarities. Is that right? Some parallels between an earlier attack when Israel killed the leader of Hezbollah, Hasrat Nasrallah, in a bombing raid. That was Beirut last fall.

That's right. So there are some parallels, like you said, between the Israeli attacks on Lebanon that led to Nasrallah's killing and the ones we're seeing today in Iran. Last fall, Israel carried out an attack using pagers, which were used by Hezbollah members that blew up because Israel had concealed explosives in them. And today,

Israeli security officials said that Israel's spy agency known as the Mossad smuggled weapons into Iran ahead of the attack. They said that a base for launching explosive drones was established inside Iran and that the drones were activated to target missile launchers at another base near Tehran. Now see, Prime Minister

Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been dreaming of taking out Iran's nuclear facilities for almost 30 years. In fact, in a video speech today, he referred to a book he wrote in 1982, where he said that the current Iranian regime was a threat to Israel. And Hadil, one more to you in terms of the Iranian response. They had said expect vengeance. They seem to be following through. What are you watching for?

Absolutely. I mean, it's certainly Iran is certainly pushing back right now. Iran attacked Israel twice last year, but they didn't do very much damage. But this time, Israel is saying this operation could last many days, even weeks. The chances that this really slips out of control is growing by the minute. Israel had warned that Iran would use its ballistic missiles.

missiles again. Israel has also closed all of its embassies worldwide and warned its nationals overseas to keep a low profile. So it obviously fears attacks on them too. And Craig Myrie, last question to you. This is obviously a very aggressive Israeli operation that we are seeing continuing to unfold against Iran's nuclear program.

What is the goal? Is it just let's slow down or destroy Iran's nuclear program? Or is it something bigger, an attempt perhaps to provoke regime change? Well, I think certainly the primary goal is to inflict as much damage as Israel can on Iran's nuclear program. When I was based here in the early 2000s, Israel was often talking about this goal.

In addition, Israel would welcome any weakening of Iran's Islamic leadership and would be thrilled if it was ousted. But that's not something Israel could expect to bring about with airstrikes alone. In the short term, Iranians are quite likely to rally around the flag in response to these Israeli attacks.

Also, Iran's government has proved extremely resilient for 46 years and remains in firm control. These sustained Israeli attacks could unleash all sorts of unintended consequences, including putting more pressure on the Iranian government. But at this stage, there's no reason to think it will generate an internal uprising that would threaten the government.

NPR National Security Correspondent Greg Myrie here in Washington. We've also been speaking with NPR's Hadil Al-Shalchi in a bomb shelter in Tel Aviv. Stay safe. Thank you, you too. You're welcome. Sure thing, Mary Louise.

This episode was produced by Michael Levitt, Mark Rivers, and Jordan Marie Smith. It was edited by James Heider, Krishnadev Kalamur, Jeanette Woods, and Connor Donovan. Our executive producer is Sammy Yannigan. And I want to say thank you to our Consider This Plus listeners who support the work of NPR journalists and help keep public radio strong. Supporters also hear every episode without messages from sponsors. You can learn more at plus.npr.org.

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