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Bloomberg Surveillance TV: July 3rd, 2025

2025/7/3
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Bloomberg Surveillance

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George Saravelos
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Jeff Rosenberg
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Michael Collins
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Mike McKee
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Stephanie Roth
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Torsten Slog
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George Saravelos: 我认为新兴市场类型的动态会持续存在,关键驱动因素是全球财政赤字都在上升。自今年年初以来,除英国外,所有国家都在增加财政支出。全球赤字增加和通胀持续导致了紧张局势。英国存在沟通问题和宏观问题。英国和美国都面临着巨大的双赤字,这导致它们更容易受到负面消息的影响。英国和美国都有外部赤字和内部赤字这两个共同点,这将导致问题。美国对这些问题有更大的弹性,但自今年年初以来,美国正变得对此更加敏感。市场平静下来是因为通胀出现了一些下行意外。我更担心美国,因为美国面临劳动力市场冲击,移民大幅减少,这相当于经济增长急剧放缓,并可能意外推高通胀。对美国来说,移民问题比关税问题更重要,因为它影响债务可持续性和双赤字的融资。解决问题有两种方式:平静的方式和混乱的方式。平静的方式是美元贬值,吸引边际买家。美国财政部缩短发行期限,国内银行和养老基金吸收债务,以便外国投资者可以退出债券市场。混乱的方式是负面供给冲击变得更加严重,导致更大的通胀意外,同时美联储的独立性受到挑战。如果增长和通胀的组合恶化,财政主导问题将迅速回到前台,导致混乱动态的临界点。

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Chapters
This chapter discusses the increasing global fiscal deficits and their impact on developed markets, particularly in the UK and the US. The discussion includes the role of communication and macroeconomic factors in market volatility and the potential for both orderly and disorderly resolutions.
  • Global increase in fiscal deficits and sticky inflation are creating tensions.
  • The UK faces communication and macro problems related to fiscal rules and twin deficits.
  • The US shows greater resilience but is becoming more sensitive to these issues, with the labor market and immigration being key factors.

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This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Farrow, along with Lisa Abramowitz and Anne-Marie Hordern. Join us each day for insight from the best in markets, economics and geopolitics. From our global headquarters in New York City, we are live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from 6 to 9 a.m. Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or anywhere else you listen. And as always, on the Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business App.

Joining us now to extend some of this conversation, not the last bit, but the bit about foreign exchange and politics, George joins us now. George Saravellos of Deutsche Bank. George, welcome to the program, sir. This EM-type dynamic, which keeps gripping developed markets over the past, I'd say, 12 months, maybe even longer, George, how are you explaining that to clients at the moment?

Well, our view is it has more to go. It's here to stay. And I think the critical driver of all of this is that fiscal deficits everywhere are going up. And of course, this was the case for the US over the last two, three years. But the really big shift since the start of the year is if you look at

all the countries outside of the U.S., with the U.K. being one exception. But everyone's increasing fiscal spending again. Canada, Germany, China's front-loading. We're seeing discussions in Japan. And I think it's this global increase in deficits combined with sticky inflation that is creating these tensions as far as this discussion goes. Well, George, let's talk about the tension specifically in the United Kingdom. Just yesterday, the pound and British assets get an absolutely whipsawed

Presumably over the future of Chancellor Rees, but I wonder if it's something bigger than that. Is it about her future or the inability of this government to consolidate spending?

I think there's two problems in the UK. There's a communication problem and a macro problem. The communication one is that effectively these fiscal rules, they're extremely clumsy. You see they're dependent on projections, which the OBR has five years out, productivity, which no one believes. And every time you see some shift in yield, the market starts talking about gaps. And I think that just creates a broader problem of instability. And we see that.

And then there's the broader macro problem, which I would argue applies just as much to the UK as it does to the US, which is both of these countries are running big twin deficits. And that is why you're seeing increased vulnerability to negative news. We experienced it in April in the US with the whole Liberation Day back and forth. And now we're seeing a small micro version of that in the UK. But I would say both the UK and the US.

have those two common denominators, external deficit and internal deficit, and that's going to be causing problems. There's a big difference, though, between the two, and we're watching it in real time as the United Kingdom tries to figure out how to message their deficit spending and how they plan to cut or not from some of those expenditures. In the United States, Congress just keeps on spending, and they're about to pass a bill that increases the deficit over the next 10 years.

by some three and a half, four trillion dollars. Why is the U.S. such a different market when it comes to dynamics and how much the bond market is waking up to this?

So you're absolutely right. The U.S. has had a greater degree of resilience, so to speak. But I would argue since the start of the year, you're actually seeing convergence whereby the U.S. is becoming more sensitive to these things. Now, of course, over the last few months, the market has calmed down. But let's not forget what happened in April. And I would say a key driver of why the market has calmed down is because we've had some downside surprises to inflation.

And of course, the bond market is most sensitive to those inflation surprises. So let's see what happens over the next six months. But between the UK and the US, I'm a lot more concerned about the US because if I look at the shocks hitting the system at the moment in the US,

Not only do you have the tariff discussion, which everyone is so focused on, but the bigger underlying shock, in my view, is the labor market, where you're seeing a very sharp reduction in immigration, which is equivalent to a sharp slowdown in growth and potentially upside surprises to inflation. And that is the worst mix if you're thinking about debt sustainability and the funding of those twin deficits. So the immigration story to me is much bigger than

than the tariff story as far as the U.S. goes. So, George, if we could just sort of solidify this parallel. If you see the United States as being a more significant story and, frankly, a worse story than the United Kingdom, which is experiencing a lot more real-time volatility in their markets, what do you think will be, A, the breaking point, and, B, the consequence for both the dollar and long-term yields that have been relatively calm amid this process?

So there's two ways this can get resolved. As you say, it can either be a calm way or it can be a disorderly way. The calm way is what we've seen over the last few weeks where the dollar weakens. As the dollar weakens, effectively assets cheapen up. You can draw in those marginal buyers. We also authored a piece talking about it.

Pennsylvania plan, which effectively, I think, is being realized. The U.S. Treasury shortens the issuance of duration. The domestic banks, the pension funds absorb the debt so foreigners can disengage from the bond market. I think that's the orderly plan. The disorderly one is if the negative supply shock I was discussing becomes more acute, you get much bigger inflation surprises. And at the same time, Fed independence gets challenged. And we're seeing that in the back

Well, arguably not in the background, in the foreground with some of the statements. The reason the market's calm is because inflation is calm. But if that growth inflation mix worsens, that fiscal dominance question, I think, will come back to the fore very, very quickly. And that's where you get the tipping point to disorderly dynamics. Yeah, George, I'm pleased you corrected yourself because it's certainly not happening in the background. The president's not being subtle about it at all. George, thank you, sir. George Saravellos there of Deutsche Bank.

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Talk about some other decliners. It's your short audio report on the day's winners and losers in the stock market. Second biggest driver in terms of points for the S&P 500. Subscribe to the Stock Movers Report on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you listen.

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Michael Collins, a PG in fixed income writing. The Fed's hands are tied for now, but we still think a Fed funds rate cut or two are likely by year end. Michael joins us now for more. Mike, welcome to the program, sir. Let's talk about these rate cuts. Are they cutting interest rates at the Federal Reserve later this year, in your mind, because inflation is coming down or because this labor market is going to start cracking?

Both, actually. We've been in the camp, Jonathan, as you know, that the Fed is really stuck. They're going to keep the rate where it is until things change, either in terms of a labor market weakening or this tariff-induced inflation not being as bad as feared and maybe being just a one-off and seeing inflation really stay kind of in the low tooths here. And I think in both cases,

the data are moving in the right direction. They are really supporting the case for a rate cut or two by the end of this year, which as you've been talking about is fully priced in. Mike, do you care about this report that we get in 40 minutes time?

I really think that people are talking about what is the run rate, what is the steady state level of job gains each month. Maybe it was, we were running at 400, then 200, then 100. It feels like because of the

just the natural slowing in the job market sickly, but also the net immigration effect. It feels like that natural steady state of job growth, Lisa, is below 100 now. Who knows? Maybe it's zero. Maybe it's 50,000. So I think you're naturally...

going to see a lower prince on these monthly job gains. And I don't know if it should spook the market. The linchpin is that unemployment rate, right? You could still have a fully employed labor market with slowing job gains. And I think that's really the conundrum the Fed is going to face. They're going to see these slowing jobs numbers and see the labor market still look fairly

The big number today we're looking at really is the wage gains. And obviously, the wage gains have been slowing steadily for a couple of years now. And I think we'll continue to see that as companies, you know, they're not necessarily firing people. They're just pulling back on hiring right now.

But wage gains are definitely slowing. If you don't see inflation as being a persistent feature of this U.S. economy, and if you do see tariffs as not as inflationary as people previously believed, why isn't the 30-year, why isn't the 10-year yield a lot lower in the United States?

Yeah, I think they're just pricing in, you know, five rate cuts, right, for the next year or year and a half is what's priced in. That seems very reasonable to us, right? If that happens, then you have a kind of a normal upward sloping term structure, right? So that's what's fully priced in, and that seems natural. What is not priced in, Lisa?

is the downside tail risk, right? What is not priced in in the credit markets, in the equity markets, in the vol markets, and arguably to your point in long-term rates is a nastier downside surprise where Trump does get his way and the funds rate doesn't go down 100 basis points

it goes down 200 or 300, right? And that is a very different world. That is not what we're expecting. But again, the markets are assigning a really low probability to that and probably too low. Mike, just to pick up on that, let's just focus on risk assets. Let's talk about equities and, say, high-yield bonds. High-yield credit, of course, you're very familiar with. You know it well. Credit spreads right now 280 on high-yield spreads and grinding even tighter. And what's interesting about that

If you take the economic surprise index, something else you know well, but for our audience who might not be familiar, just where is the data coming in relative to expectations? That's been rolling over since November. It's had a smallest bounce, but ultimately the trend over the last six months, not great. So the surprise index has been rolling over, the equity market's been going higher, and credit spreads have been grinding tighter. How do you explain that? Either we're whistling past the graveyard or the data is just becoming less and less relevant. Which one is it?

Yeah, I think it's the whistling past the graveyard for sure. I know, Lisa, it's good to see you're fired up this morning about this. And, you know, the financial conditions is something that, you know, not a lot of people are talking about, right? Yeah, could the Fed cut 100 basis points now?

Possibly, maybe that's the right level to be at, frankly. But what would happen to financial conditions? Would the stock market go up another 10 or 20 percent? Would credit spreads continue to grind in? And that brings in a whole host of other risks to the upside of the economy and the upside of inflation. This economy has been driven

by the upper end of the wealth and income spectrum, which has been driven by this paper wealth effect. Right. And I don't think you want to add fuel to that fire. And I really believe that's one of the reasons the Fed is really hesitant to cut here because they don't want to add fuel to that fire. If you think people are whistling past the graveyard, Mike, what's your highest conviction call right now?

The conviction is that, you know, growth is going to moderate a little bit and recession risk really does look low, right? I mean, the big theme we've been focused on, Lisa, throughout this whole cycle is, you know, where are the tipping points in the private sector? You know what? Yeah, the public sector is a mess. The fiscal situation globally is a mess. But, you know, typically these recessions happen, these downside risks happen when you have an over lever

housing sector or financial sector or corporate sector or consumer sector or mortgage sector and and you are not there this cycle we have not had a re-leveraging of the private sector yeah there are some pockets in lower-end consumers where you're seeing

Bigger increases in debt and leverage and you're seeing a lot a big increase in personal bankruptcies and small business Bankruptcies, which is certainly worrisome, but it's not systemic enough to take the whole economy down with it, right? So so we have a pretty strong conviction that that yeah, it's gonna be a slowdown the economy But this kind of cataclysmic, you know credit risk off, you know credit crisis is a really low low

low probability. And that's frankly what the markets are running with and pricing in. Mike Collins, appreciate your time, sir. Mike Collins there of PGM Fixed Income.

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With us around the table, Stephanie Roth of Wolf Research. Stephanie, good morning. Good morning. Your first take on this one. Yeah, I mean, this is something that we were kind of warning people about, an environment where the steady state pace of hiring comes down pretty substantially and the unemployment rate starts to fall. Because we're in an environment where there's a significant detraction from a foreign-born population, and that puts down the pressure on the unemployment rate, it reduces the unemployed people, and

And at the same time, it lowers the steady state pace of hiring. So 150, around 150 now, is what two years ago? 250? 225? Granted, a lot of the job gains was driven by government. So I think we have to take that with a grain of salt. If you look at private payrolls, that was fairly sluggish. And by category, it was kind of slow as well. So the steady state pace of growth has come down. I would look at it from a private perspective in particular first. And then we're in

environment where you're seeing a tightening in parts of the labor market, which is what the signal from the unemployment rate. What do you make of the fact that we didn't see hourly earnings significantly rise or rise even as much as people previously expected? It kind of goes to this idea, can we get a decent jobs number without really any kind of inflationary impulse?

I think it was the timing of the survey week. So this is something that gets somewhat underappreciated when you're forecasting the payroll gains. It tends to be very sensitive to the timing of the survey week. And this time it was earlier in the month, which doesn't capture the 15th, which then tends-- and 15th tends to be the time where you get payroll

raises and that type of thing. So that tends to put downward pressure on the average hourly earnings number. So we were looking for 0.2 for particularly this reason. Do you think that this calls into the question the need for the Fed to cut in September? Yeah, in our base case, we have them not cutting, although it's a close call. It certainly reduces the odds. Certainly July is off the table. And now the question is, can they still cut in September? Base cases, they probably don't, but there's a lot more data and this

This is just one print among many that we're going to be getting by the time we get to September. Stephanie Roth is going to stick with us around the table. The jobs number just moments ago, 147,000, higher than expected. The estimate in our survey was 106. The unemployment rate expected to climb to 4.3%, actually dropped to 4.1% from 4.2%. Got a bunch of other data as well because it is Thursday.

And it is payrolls Thursday this time around because of the long weekend. So we've got jobless claims as well. And claims came in much lower than expected. 233, the estimate was 241. We've got Torsten Slog with us around the table from Apollo. Torsten, I want to come to you a bit earlier than expected because I want your view on this. You were expecting unemployment to start climbing.

unemployment's falling back. What explains that? I think the key issue here is the immigration factor, as Stephanie is mentioning, that it is very, very important. So Tara Watson and Wendy Edelberg estimates now that we are seeing significant decline in the long-run payroll growth of closer to around 50,000. And the fact that the unemployment is going down is something that, of course, is quite surprising. And the fact that we now have so strong payroll growth

Even with a decline in the long run, steady state for non-farm payrolls tells you that this was a fairly strong report and this is a very strong economy, which argues to your point, which is our view, that the FED will only cut once this year simply because rates will stay higher for longer. There is no need, especially not with Powell at the same time saying that he expects a meaningful rise in inflation over the coming months.

Is it fair to say that this was the goal of the Trump administration, that they wanted to get immigration down so that even if you have payrolls growth of 100 to 150k, you could actually see the unemployment rate start to fall? Exactly, because both labour supply is declining when you deport roughly around a million people at an annual rate, and at the same time, labour demand may also eventually slow down, but if it doesn't slow down, then the declining labour supply on its own will exactly create a report like this one, namely where you have

a declining unemployment rate. So it is obviously better than the consensus expected, also better than what we had expected, but it tells you very clearly that the labor supply story is playing a very important role here. At the same time, it also suggests that the economy or the business environment is much more solid than many people expected as well in terms of hiring, in terms of looking for that, and it's coming without the inflationary impulse that some people were worried about. Do you think that that's durable?

Well, and that brings us back to the discussion around what is the effect of the trade war. Are tariffs not going to have an impact? So far it's remarkable where you have inflation basically still steady and now job growth still relatively strong. So in that sense there literally is very little sign of the trade war having a macroeconomic impact at this point. There are going to be people who look at this and say this might be the last gasp before a real material weakening. We can't trust these numbers. Max Kettner is already gone.

What do you say to that? Well, that's why the next few weeks with the earnings season will become very, very important because then we will figure out is the peak coming through the Python in terms of the tariffs heading eventually earnings? Because at the end of the day, we are raising about $400 billion in tax revenue at an annual rate at the moment. Total earnings for the S&P is about $2 trillion. So that means that someone needs to pay $400 billion if tax revenue is going up $400 billion. Is it consumers through higher inflation or is it companies through lower earnings?

And we still, with this report of course, have just not seen that yet. So, exactly to your point, Lisa, over the next several weeks, we'll find out in Q2, how did companies actually respond to higher tariffs? Did they respond by passing prices through in the form of higher inflation? We'll find that out also very soon. Or did they also, in this case, turn out to actually lower their earnings and say, "We're going to eat some of the tariffs." And that becomes the main question for markets now, namely, what was actually the response to tariffs in the second quarter?

Mike McKee is back with us for a little bit more. Mike, you've taken a second look at the numbers. What explains the upside surprise? There's just some hiring in a lot of different categories. You're going to laugh at this. The biggest category for hiring was government. 73,000 additional jobs, but that is almost all in state and local government. A lot of it in state and local education. 7,000 jobs lost in the federal government. Now,

Maybe we get a lot more once we get to the fall and some of those people who are getting severance finally leave the labor force. To what you guys have been talking about, the interesting thing here is that the number of people who are in the labor force foreign-born went up.

this month. Same is true of the people who are in the labor force who are native born, although the overall level of the labor force falls by 120,000 people, 130,000 people. So you can see why the unemployment rate went down. 93,000 people went or got employed according to the household survey and 222,000 lost jobs.

But because of the drop in the labor force there, you're seeing a lower unemployment rate. But the labor force doesn't seem to be having been affected by the overall numbers of people who are being deported. Manufacturing lost 7,000 jobs.

during the month. Construction gained 15,000 more than anticipated. Retail trade only 2,000 now. If we are seeing a slowing in spending, that might be showing up there. That might be one of the first ones that we see that is a problem. And Lisa, I checked on you and arts and entertainment hiring was up by 20,000. I don't know whether you are arts or entertainment, but you would fall in that category. Both, Mike. Both.

Yeah. Art and entertainment. So for right now, you're okay. All right, thanks. I'm so glad. That was the news you need to know. Mike McKee, thank you, sir. Looking at Bonneau's this morning. Bonneau tied by eight or nine basis points at the front end of the curve off the back of this upside. Surprise. Once you push that through foreign exchange, you get a stronger dollar. Euro dollar right now negative by...

about a half of 1%, 117.42. Talked about the equity response to that. Not convincing. Still positive, though, by about two-tenths of 1%. Talk about the market. Jeff Rosenberg of BlackRock jumps on to talk to us. Jeff, welcome to the program. What on earth did you do with this one this morning? Yeah, Jonathan, I haven't heard you say it yet, but, you know, this is...

a great example of where the first reaction is not necessarily the last reaction i'd i think we gotta rewrite these headlines everybody uh... is about the private payrolls and private payrolls disappointed to the downside uh... mike mckee just talked about it the upside surprise

its government and that may be surprising federal government was down that's not surprising that's doge and the cuts its state and local that's very high if it's education to me that sort of sounds like there's a lot of education workers coming back into the job market in June now that's a seasonal adjustment effect so the story here is not the headline the market is reacting to that maybe it's the algos let's get the humans back in the room

back into the trading and look through this report. This is a slowdown and a little bit disappointment on the private payroll side. You know, you look at private services, it's well below 68,000. It's well below the six-month average. Not like earth-shattering here, but this is the slowing in the job market that we are expecting. The market reaction is trading off of the headline, but I think the story here is much more about private

payrolls and that is actually a very different headline now we'll see if the market eventually picks up on that is the as the as the end of the day Jeff you're right I always say it so let's rewind 15 minutes the first move is not always the right move so let's wait and see what happens later in the day there you go Jeff I got it out Jeff let's talk about what we're seeing in private payrolls then and talk about this move in the market would you fade what we're seeing high yields at the front end would you fade what we're seeing in the FX market a stronger dollar

Yeah, I mean, that's basically my point is that the initial reaction here may be a bit overstated with regards to repricing. I agree with you. I think July may have been overstated to begin with. But I think the broader story here is the slowing in the payrolls that we've seen for some time. I think it's actually confirmed by this report. And then I want to reemphasize what Torsten just said, because I couldn't agree more, that it's really going to be about

profit margins and what we learn from corporations. I think you used, Torsten, the pig in the python. That's exactly it. I mean, we're still waiting for the impact to show up. It's been showing up. And, you know, the other story around payrolls is they've been overstated. And so the big question is, is there an underlying weakening here that is a little bit greater than what is anticipated? I think the story here today of headline versus privates is kind of

throwing more confusion in there. The revisions were a surprise to the upside. People looking for, you know, the revision story to show up. So that was a little bit stronger than expected. But I think

It's really going to be about the corporate reaction here. And it's been, as we saw in the Joltz data, you know, it's been a pretty stagnant, very, you know, benign kind of layoff environment. We have to see whether or not that is maintained. But Jeff, isn't this kind of conducive to risk assets? And I say this at a time when you have a potentially stimulative bill coming out of Washington, D.C., albeit increasing the deficit.

But you have sort of steady, if slowing growth at the same time that you have a Fed that is poised to cut rates in September and potentially again later this year. Isn't that potentially still OK for everything to continue on the status quo?

Well, yes, in some sense that's the case, but it's already well into the price. So you look at like the performance of cyclicals versus defensives, for example, you know, you're seeing, you know, expansionary type moves in the face of that, you know, you said slowing but steady. I'd emphasize more the slowing, you know, most of the economic data is slowing and that's what the payroll data here is validating.

That's not the end of the world. It's not saying the sky is falling or there's recession. But this is consistent with a mid-cycle slowdown. So there's a little bit of a disconnect between kind of what we're seeing in valuations and what we're seeing in terms of the slowdown. And that doesn't necessarily mean you jump in with both feet and everything's sky is clear. You've got to take a little bit of caution with respect to what's in the price versus what we're seeing in terms of the macro backdrop.

Hey, Jeff, appreciate it. Jeff Rosenberg there of BlackRock. The message you sent earlier on about two hours ago.

Which one? Which is basically the data of the market on two different pages. Exactly. And this is partly because the market right now is looking to AI, is looking to different advancements, is looking to good enough. And the economy is looking at a very different backdrop where you have very low hiring and very low firing. And at some point you have to have a meeting of the two. Stephanie, you heard Jeff there. The distinction, headline payrolls versus private payrolls. You talked about it briefly as well. Two different stories.

- Kind of to some extent. The strength in government specifically tied to education was probably a seasonal quirk. Totally agree with that. The fact that private payrolls are in the 70s shouldn't be that alarming though because we know that the steady state pace of payrolls growth has come down. We should be concerned if it was stronger than that because we don't have the labor force to support it. If it was running notably

notably above 100,000, you're going to start running into problems with inflationary pressures picking up. - Torsten, you've been making the argument that unemployment will climb. You're expecting it to rise in the months to come. What convinces you with that at the moment? - Well, the problem also with this story, with the data today is that the AI story is just not playing out. So that means that we're not seeing people losing their jobs and the unemployment rate going up because of that factor. The expectation from our side was that there was a slowdown in demand that pushes the unemployment rate higher.

but the fact that not even the AI story is showing up here, and it really is mainly a story of just a simple decline in labor force participation because we simply have a smaller labor force. And also the added issue here, government employment going forward. If we're now also going to hire more

workers for ice if we're going to hire generally speaking at a number of different fronts with a huge budget increase we could also now begin to spend much more time over the coming months on thinking about what's going on the private sector employment numbers relative to the government sector you're changing your mind then because you've been talking about stagflation for a while later this year well i challenge to that right so on the inflation side i mean jay powell in cintra just a few days ago said again that he expects a meaningful increase in inflation he said that the congressional hearings he said that also at the press conference so we still have

If the Fed chair says, I expect a meaningful increase in inflation, that's something we should take very seriously. So to what Jeff's point was exactly, that I still think that we're waiting to see what was the corporate response in the second quarter to tariffs. And tariffs, yes, it may seem like it's behind us. Uncertainty certainly looks better. We can begin to talk about now with this report what that means for July the 9th and the deadline next week. But the conclusion is, if we at least at the moment still have

at question mark around how did companies actually respond to tariffs i think is too early to take the champagne bottle out here and say this is all the room toss and slot stephanie roff to the two of you thank you don't pop the champagne just yet when are we i think we're about twelve days away from numbers from jp morgan when we start to hear from corporate america about what the plans are for the next several quarters and beyond yeah july fifteenth you start to kick off those bank earnings then you see whether it's profit margins or whether

They're going to just pass it along to consumers less in the banking sector and more in others. I'm sitting here thinking how do you price in or how do you factor in slow-moving changes that are seismic in monthly data? And I think this is the reason why everyone's heads are kind of spinning because you have all these stories that make perfect sense and these theories but the numbers aren't really catching up. So what do you do? You get to the beach. If you're not already left, all right? I think a lot of people are already left, haven't they?

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