George Saravelos: 我认为新兴市场类型的动态会持续存在,关键驱动因素是全球财政赤字都在上升。自今年年初以来,除英国外,所有国家都在增加财政支出。全球赤字增加和通胀持续导致了紧张局势。英国存在沟通问题和宏观问题。英国和美国都面临着巨大的双赤字,这导致它们更容易受到负面消息的影响。英国和美国都有外部赤字和内部赤字这两个共同点,这将导致问题。美国对这些问题有更大的弹性,但自今年年初以来,美国正变得对此更加敏感。市场平静下来是因为通胀出现了一些下行意外。我更担心美国,因为美国面临劳动力市场冲击,移民大幅减少,这相当于经济增长急剧放缓,并可能意外推高通胀。对美国来说,移民问题比关税问题更重要,因为它影响债务可持续性和双赤字的融资。解决问题有两种方式:平静的方式和混乱的方式。平静的方式是美元贬值,吸引边际买家。美国财政部缩短发行期限,国内银行和养老基金吸收债务,以便外国投资者可以退出债券市场。混乱的方式是负面供给冲击变得更加严重,导致更大的通胀意外,同时美联储的独立性受到挑战。如果增长和通胀的组合恶化,财政主导问题将迅速回到前台,导致混乱动态的临界点。
This chapter discusses the increasing global fiscal deficits and their impact on developed markets, particularly in the UK and the US. The discussion includes the role of communication and macroeconomic factors in market volatility and the potential for both orderly and disorderly resolutions.
Global increase in fiscal deficits and sticky inflation are creating tensions.
The UK faces communication and macro problems related to fiscal rules and twin deficits.
The US shows greater resilience but is becoming more sensitive to these issues, with the labor market and immigration being key factors.
Stephanie Roth, Chief Economist at Wolfe Research- Jeffrey Rosenberg, Portfolio Manager: Systematic Multi-Strategy Fund at BlackRock- George Saravelos, Global Head: FX Strategy at Deutsche Bank- Michael Collins, Executive Portfolio Advisor: Multi-Sector at PGIM Fixed IncomeGeorge Saravelos, Global Head: FX Strategy at Deutsche Bank, discusses the path of the dollar and if it will continue to weaken. Michael Collins, Executive Portfolio Advisor: Multi-Sector at PGIM Fixed Income, discusses signals from the bond market about the outlook for the US economy. Stephanie Roth, Chief Economist at Wolfe Research and Jeffrey Rosenberg, Portfolio Manager: Systematic Multi-Strategy Fund at BlackRock, react to the June jobs report.