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cover of episode Jobs Data Key to Market Outlook Description:

Jobs Data Key to Market Outlook Description:

2025/6/5
logo of podcast Bloomberg Surveillance

Bloomberg Surveillance
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J
Julia Coronado
N
Neale Richmond
N
Neil Dutta
领导宏观经济研究，专注于分析美国经济和全球趋势的经济学家。
R
Romi Savova
V
Vishy Tirupattur
Topics
Neil Dutta: 我认为劳动力市场正在放缓，失业救济金申领人数接近临界点。虽然ISM数据存在一些偏差，但整体经济增长低于潜在水平，美联储可能会因此改变政策方向，从关注通胀转向关注增长。我预计消费者支出将会放缓，因为实际收入正在下降，储蓄也在减少。 Vishy Tirupattur: 我认为关税将导致通胀在第三季度飙升，从而限制美联储今年降息。虽然我对信贷风险持谨慎乐观态度，但预计经济增长将放缓。债券市场关心近期的财政刺激和赤字增加，预计明年美联储将大幅降息。 Julia Coronado: 我认为美联储在短期内会倾向于通胀目标，暂停降息。移民政策收紧会降低劳动力市场和GDP的潜在增长率。4月份的数据普遍疲软，贸易数据证实第一季度的需求是提前消费，第二季度最终需求将出现低谷。我认为贸易战将削弱全球经济增长，各国需要实现出口多元化。

Deep Dive

Chapters
This chapter analyzes the recent slowdown in the US labor market, examining data points such as the ADP employment report, jobless claims, and the ISM data. The discussion includes an assessment of the consumer's health and its impact on the labor market.
  • ADP employment report showed a slowdown.
  • Initial jobless claims are nearing the break-even level between jobs growth and jobs flat.
  • Layoffs are increasing, and the job finding rate is weak.
  • ISM services number was weak, but S&P Global services PMI was strong.
  • The Fed has a modest dovish bias and will likely pivot once the labor market begins to crack.

Shownotes Transcript

Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF).Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyJune 5th, 2025Featuring:1) Neil Dutta, Head: US Economic Research at Renaissance Macro, joins for an extended discussion on labor market strength and whether we are on the cusp of a breaking of US labor. Friday's jobs report is expected to show slowed growth in nonfarm payrolls and a steady unemployment rate, with traders awaiting fresh data on the US economy.2) Vishy Tirupattur, Chief Fixed Income Strategist at Morgan Stanley, joins to discuss bond market warnings and reacts to jobless claims. A series of poorly received sovereign bond auctions worldwide has raised questions about investors' willingness to fund government spending plans. Recent auctions in Japan, Australia, and South Korea have shown weak demand, and investors are demanding more compensation to hold long-dated bonds due to growing anxiety about fiscal deficits.3) Julia Coronado, President and founder of Macropolicy Perspectives, joins to talk about the June FOMC meeting and whether there'll be more Fed cuts than is being priced in. A trend of higher global yields is a warning sign from investors that governments cannot keep borrowing at the pace they did when interest rates were close to zero.4) Neale Richmond, Ireland’s Minister of State for Diaspora and International Development, on how the EU is negotiating with the US on tariffs. It comes as the EU's power to impose retaliatory tariffs on US goods and services received a legal boost from an adviser to the EU's top court.5) Romi Savova, CEO at PensionBee, discusses bringing efficiency to the retirement systems in the US and abroad and how money managers can better position people to retire.

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