Reaction to Jobs Report and the Trump-Musk Feud
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This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 7 a.m. Eastern on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube. So honored, Claudia.

Sam with us with New Century Advises. Claudia, I don't think people know who you are. You've become such a fixture, such a giant of American academics. Let's start with the complete intimidation of walking in the door at Michigan one day and being greeted by the giants of inflation study, Matthew Shapiro and Miles Spencer Kimball. What was it like working for those two academic beasts on inflation?

So it was an absolute privilege to work with both Matthew and Miles. And I keep, there are lessons that I learned from them that keep replaying in my head even now. Like if we think about these big policy questions, what's gonna happen to the economy? Matthew is known for saying all the time, it's an empirical question, right? Like we can have all the theory and we need that, but you've gotta go look at the data and you gotta look really carefully at it to figure out what's gonna happen.

Your initial acclaim was acute analysis of the American consumer. Forget about the distractions, Musk, Trump, Red Sox, Yankees, things that matter. Claudia Assam, what is the state of the American consumer?

The thing is, the American consumer is still good. I mean, I have a longstanding mantra of, like, don't bet against the American consumer, right? When they can spend, when they can't, like, this keeps going. Now, I think we can run into some constraints as this year goes on, right? If income slows down, if the jobs aren't as plentiful, then the consumer does, you know, they are likely to pull back some. But at this point, we're still in a place that's, you know, relatively solid, but it's more about where we're headed right now.

So, Claudia, today when we get this jobs data here, we've seen some data this week, whether it's jolts or ADP or claims, kind of suggest that the labor market's softening. But I don't know. It doesn't feel like it's breaking here. There's any real risk, but that may change in three minutes. But how do you kind of view just broadly speaking this U.S. labor market?

I think it's important to remember that when we have big shocks hitting the economy, like the policy changes, the tariffs, immigration, the labor market is not necessarily the first place we see it hit. I mean, remember, in most recessions, the unemployment rate peaks after the recession is over.

It takes time to work its way through. So at this point, we're looking for subtle signs of softening, hours are reduced, part-time work. And that actually tells us about potentially much bigger weakening as we go on into later this year. So this isn't the first place to see it. And frankly, other places we would look like business investment or even in the prices, we're just starting to see the hints of the policy. It's

It's coming. Claudia, I want to get this in before the jobs report. The standard error, the noise around this report. Now, with immigration changing, is it getting harder and harder to guess the numbers or the tenor of the two reports? Well, the sad reality, I mean, immigration is going to be an issue. I mean, I think at this point,

you know the willingness of people who are in the united states as immigrants to participate in our surveys like it's got to be slipping and in general we have seen a real distrust of people participating in surveys or maybe just not taking the time to participate in surveys if we don't have as much information it's not that there's necessarily going to be a bias

in the reports, it's just they're going to be noisier. And we know how much every, you know, first Friday of the month we study the exact numbers. And if they get noisier, we're going to get bounced around a lot more in terms of like what's actually happening. Claudia Simons said for 18 months, don't underestimate an overused word, a resilient American economic experiment. That's what we see within the tariff war, Claudia. This is a resilient labor economy.

Yes, I would agree, though I would also reinforce that the effects of the tariffs are just right at the beginning. We haven't seen the price increases widespread. This is a good place. The labor market's in a good place, but this is not the labor market of, say, 2022 that was firing on all cylinders and then was being hit with rate increases and high inflation.

So, you know, I think that's encouraging. It is that today's numbers are very consistent with a softening, not even, you know, the other weakening. But this is not we're not done yet. But this is a good day. Claudia, how do you think the Federal Reserve Fed Chairman Jay Powell, how do you think the Fed's going to look at these numbers?

It takes a little bit of pressure off them because, again, what they're waiting to see and what's going to be important for their decision is to see how the tariff-induced inflation play out. They really need some kind of confirmation that that inflation will be temporary.

And again, we're just starting to see those price increases come in. It's going to be months before we see any sign, even monthly data that's going to pull back. And it also gives time for them to see, you know, that a kind of get terror policy around like a low terror policy. So it just gives them some breathing space. I think what was going to be there, like they're thinking anyways, is that you got to see this inflation under control.

Claudia, thank you so much. Claudia Song with this New Century Advisors. Really good to have her on today here with a constructive report. Again, her research note, get that from New Century Advisors. We protect the copyright of all of our guests. Futures up 40, now futures up 245. The VIX quiescent goes from night, what were we, 20, Paul? We were 20, like back when the Red Sox were winning, right? Yep, exactly. Back when Amy Woo Silverman was booking her Taylor Swift tickets.

Right now, 17.49 on the VIX. A constructive take. Yields up a little bit as well. We looked at bonds with Priya Misra. We have Claudia Somm here, acclaimed on American economics. And now joining us, Amy Wu-Silverman, RBC Capital Markets here to dovetail in equities.

The derivative space, what does it say about expectations? The game of it within the algebra, the quantitative finance is to seek out not an extrapolation, but just what's the expectation? Do you have a clue what the expectation is of equity markets by Labor Day?

Well, it's interesting because coming into this payrolls, it was quite benign. So when you looked at the pricing ahead of NFP- There wasn't a bet. Essentially, there wasn't a bet. That at-the-money straddle, Tom, was coming in very complacent, under the normal standard deviation. And I think probably given what the market reaction is, it'll probably end up being correct. Now, that changes out to September. So

our term structure, those future expectations of volatility are a lot higher. And it's essentially saying to me, we've can kicked a lot of things. We're in the middle of these reprieves. That doesn't mean there isn't going to be stuff going on. It's just going to happen later.

Are your clients, are they looking to buy protection here? Whether it's just tweet protection, I don't know what you guys call it, but the volatility just feels like I can't predict it at all. Is there something you can provide for them on the protection side?

Well, look, I know Tom likes the Greeks a lot, but my bad wall joke is there's another Greek, Tweeta. So just the sensitivity of implied volatility to Donald Trump's tweets. And, you know, my kids will cringe. But look, it's a real thing. It really creates volatility potholes. All you need to do is look to last night and you can see that idiosyncratic risk in Tesla. You can see it in the macro risk. And that does not go away. I only think that is something that

investors have to contend with. And the one thing I'll say is, look, there is hedging going on. There is demand for that. It's in those further tenors because once we roll off these reprieves, we're still going to have to figure out what we do in terms of the market and the distribution of fat tails that we see. Is it more expensive today to buy protection in the options and futures and options markets than it was a year ago?

So look, here's what I'll say a little bit. Yes. But when you kind of look to, let's go back to liberation day, how expensive things have gotten, we've rolled off significantly. And I would argue that there has been a big change between last year and this year in terms of

how real people think those tariff guardrails have been removed. And so if I had to make a quick advertising for hedging, I would say it's relatively inexpensive considering the tales that could occur if we don't get any good resolutions. We welcome all of you on your commute across the nation. A jobs report, benevolent, some say front run by the president with a tweet out, an optimistic tweet out.

before the jobs report. Thank you, Jim Bianco, for that perspective from Chicago. That's not my perspective, folks. That was James Bianco's tweet that was out on linking the president's tweet into this benevolent tone. Futures up 45 to VIX 17.37 to have Priya Misra with us. Claudia Sama, now Amy Wu Silverman, had a derivative strategy. RBC Capital Markets.

Christina, this is the way we roll a good conversation for you on YouTube. Amy Silverman, forget about the moonshot of Microsoft, which I think has been way underreported here in Q2.

The absolute arc is the retails on board, retails in the market, and institutions, CTAs, all the other fancy phrases you have in your world are running around with their heads cut off. What's the cacophony like in institutional conversations right now?

Look, if you had to pit retail against institutional, I would say they probably won round one in terms of they didn't de-growth, they didn't de-risk, they were steadily buying that dip and they have been rewarded. Now it's just different, right? Because when you're an institutional investor, you've got to meet that benchmark for quarter end, for year end. You don't have that super long horizon. It's a different game. It's not fair. And that's why I think that demand for longer term hedging comes into play. But look,

Tom, I think there's a real risk of a right tail crash. That has been true since post-COVID. What does that mean? That's jargon. It just means this idea that if mag seven rips, if you have that benchmark concentration and it runs away from you as an institutional investor, you have to catch up. You have to play the foam again. Is that the reason I set all this up, folks, because she's so damn good at this. The answer is, Paul, you know, you lived it.

June 30. June is busted out all over. We're 25 days away from our long-only buy side and all the way over to rock and leverage CTAs have to show their cards. What's the frenzy going to be on the path to June 30 end of quarter? So I'd watch some signals in the market here. I would watch for what that call option demand is if it starts to outweigh the put option demand, either in your MAG7 names, in your S&P, in your Qs.

That starts this right tail chase, which we've seen over and over again since the post-COVID period. You saw it after that low in liberation day, right? Everyone who degrows had to jump in the pool really quickly. We have found when we back tested over time, when that momentum starts, it takes a while for it to fade. And those dynamics are really real. On balance, are your clients...

Are they net bullish or kind of net bearish, or are they just trying to just hedge away all the risk they can? I would say if I had the gun to my head, I would say they're still very cautious. Okay. And...

That's why I called it a right tail in the sense that it's a hedge to the upside, right? When we look into the options market, we actually see a lot of call buying in FXI, the China ETF and EEM, the merging markets ETF. I don't think that's expressing a super bullish view on China. It's the worry that if we suddenly get a resolution over the weekend, that tweet-a-bomb turns on again.

They have to go into that chase. They have that benchmark concentration risk. Legendary academics at New York University. One final question here. We're trying to get Christina Katmany up here in a moment. Incredibly important, and I go to NYU for this, the idea that you have to re-hedge out. If we get a right-tail shift and all of a sudden your world has to catch up to June 30 and beyond...

You have to re-hedge out there. Doesn't that create almost a circuitous momentum of buy, buy, buy? Isn't that the heart of the matter? Yeah, you know, people like to call it the Gamma Hammer. I don't know. I haven't found a better name for that. Gamma Hammer opened for Pantera. Yes, it did. Continue. Continue.

And, you know, I think that to some degree, this risk of rerolling that strikes is something investors always contend with. But I think that's why we've seen duration shrinkage, Tom. I think that's why we've seen more zero data expiry trading because of these data points kind of creating a cycle you can't get ahead of. Amy Wood Silverman, thank you, thank you, thank you so much. She's the RBC Capital Markets, and we thank her for Jobs Day perspective. She's from Villanova University.

potentially working at the Vatican here. We'll see to straighten out their bond portfolio or sitting on the next bench. The power of Villanova.

The coach exits. I mean, I don't think she wouldn't head coach. Christina Katmany with us, new assistant coach for the New York Knicks here in Global Debt and Senior Portrait. Seriously, if you were advising with the celebration of Pope Leo XIV, if you were advising the Vatican right now about clip the coupon, I'm serious, clip the coupon for total return.

Short term for Pope Leo's 10 years. Let's bring it into three years. Is it a total return space or a coupon space? I mean, it's a little bit of both, right? I think...

We're no longer in a world where global debt everywhere is at zero and rates are at zero and you have to be in tens in the U.S. to get 2%, right? You can have front-end paper in the U.S., whether that's high-quality corporates, two to five years, whether it's bills, whether it's treasuries, and having some portfolio, if that makes sense. And same thing, look at the rest of the world. There's...

there is yield to be had. Yeah, I mean, again, your title is Global Debt Senior Portfolio Manager. Where outside the U.S. do you guys see opportunities? Yeah. So when we look at it again, our general preference has been to own duration in the front end of the curve globally, so call it in that two to five year sector. And I think certainly through April, as we have had all of this uncertainty and tumult and Liberation Day and what's going on with tariffs,

And kind of the fiscal concerns and these questions of, oh, like the 10 years not acting as kind of that anchor. What has? Five year duration in Europe has. So I think, again, front end. And then to be invested out the curve, it's a question of where do you get enough yield? And I think there in the long end of Japan, you've seen some steepness. There's a few places.

The president's tweet, a jobs report, Navarro's comments on a Chinese meeting in seven days, Kemp Manning lifts the market up 45, now up 50 on futures. In the yield space, Paul moves, we were up to three basis points. And now the 10-year yield, 4.45%. We're up six basis points, five basis points out the curve. Yep. Moving to markets.

How much credit risk are you guys comfortable taking these days? So we have some. But again, when we look across our three levers that we can pull, FX, rates, and credit, it's probably our least favorite because credit spreads are still tight historically. And look, we're not at a point that we're very concerned about imminent recession, severe recession. We're not at...

And we don't have like an immediate funding wall for corporations, but level spreads are tight. So again, this kind of...

two to five year short paper, high quality, there's value there. Otherwise, I think all of these economic kind of driving forces, FX is the clearest channel of where they impact it. So that's kind of probably our favorite lever. And then rates is a bit in the middle. Well, you mentioned FX. I mean, the dollar's been just hasn't had any rebound like other risk assets. U.S. stocks have rebounded. The dollar's not. What does that tell you guys or how does it inform your bond selection? So I think it really is a broader story. And

The question is, is this a real regime shift for the dollar? And our view is it is. And even when you've seen almost a 10% kind of broad dollar move year to date, again,

We still think that can you have another 10 to 15 percent dollar down move? Yes. Is that a one month number? No, of course not. It's probably a theme that's here to stay because you take a step back and you say, what's 2025? We've broken kind of this multilateral trading system globally. That's been the base case for the last 50 years. You've broken up.

kind of the global security order of the US being the backstop there. And so you have things like German fiscal and all of these big changes. And even if you

the courts say tariffs can't happen or we are pausing on tariffs like the genie's out of the bottle and the rest of the world has to think of what what is with the uncertainty of policy what is the risk premium that there needs to be to own the dollar and it's higher so where to pause earlier question quickly i'm running out of time where geographically is the best opportunity to capture coupon

um is it gilts is it german industrial paper is it something i don't know about i mean where's that global yield i need a coupon opportunity yeah i think it's like there are barbell places right like there's certainly a place in a portfolio for this front end u.s paper um i think out of the curve in the uk there is some opportunity in the long end of gilts and you have a steep curve there and then you look at things like um

bank paper in Europe, or again, like there's some high quality corporate paper in Europe that you can own, Australia, government bonds and semis, there's value there. They're called kangaroos. Yep, exactly. Christina, thank you so much. It's brilliant. Christina Katmany with us with Invesco here out of Villanova, and of course with Invesco.

If this government spending in defense goes towards things like R&D that have dual-use civilian purposes, you could get spillovers that actually end up enhancing productivity in Europe and so have a more long-lasting impact on growth.

To learn more about the intersection of national security and global trade, subscribe to PGM's The Outthinking Investor in your favorite podcast app.

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You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 7 to 10 a.m. Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Or watch us live on YouTube. I'm going to name some names for you. They're three dreams with a hat trick. Vaibhav Taniga, Zaisong Zhu, Tom, I think it's Tom Zhu, and Travis Axelrod. That's the management of Tesla around one other guy.

When Musk gets done with his Musk-Trump battle and he goes back to Tesla, what does he go back to in terms of running a business? Dan Ives with us from Wentbush. Great to be here. Look, and obviously, a twilight zone day, you know, the last 24 hours. I mean, look, to me, the whole vision of Tesla, it's about autonomous. It all starts... Okay, but you didn't answer my question. He goes out to Austin, Texas. What's there to pick up the pieces?

Well, I mean, if you look, the engineer, I would argue the best engineers in the world, if you look at Tesla, SpaceX, I mean, it's foundational, I think, around the world in terms of the best engineering. And when it comes to scale and scope from Fremont to Tesla to what we have in China to everything else, Tesla continues to be unmatched. And I just view everything that they've seen from a demand perspective is a near-term narrative of the story that will be short-lived because the future...

The value, I believe it's a trillion dollars of value for autonomous saloon. That is the focus for Musk. That is the focus for Tesla. Just remind us, Dan,

What is the dependence of Tesla, the company, on government support? Just refresh us kind of how that relationship is, because I think people are concerned that maybe that relationship could be at risk and it could impact some of the economics. Well, I think there's obviously regulatory credits that they lose. And if you go back not as much today, but that was a huge part of their profits early on.

I think the bigger thing is around the tax credits in terms of EVs, $7,500 that in the bill that's proposed that essentially would disappear. That probably hurts demand, we'll say, let's say five, seven, potentially 10% in terms of a typical customer that might not do an EV and might not do a Tesla.

But when you look at the government and some of the Trump sort of threats, that is much more around SpaceX than Tesla in terms of some of those concerns. So we assume that Elon Musk is...

He's out of Doge. He's out of government. He's back to work. What does that mean for Tessa? Have you heard any reporting or have you heard from your contacts about is he back on the floor? Is he back in design discussions? What's going on? He's been back on the factory floor. I mean, the point is like this is something where

they need their leader back in their biggest asset, and that's Musk. And I think you'll see, despite what we've seen the last 24 hours, that you will see a driven Musk, and we're going to look at the next 6, 9, 12 months, and it's going to be, I think, a huge chapter of growth. One more question on this silliness. I want to get to the importance of Apple on Monday.

Elon Musk, from where you sit, I don't want any of this tabloid New York Post crap. I want to know, do you feel that the allegations of drug use intrude on him giving optimum performance to Tesla? Look, I mean, it's my own view. It's like with Musk, it always comes, obviously, a lot of baggage. But

But that's also, that's not something I think most investors really that shy away from. I think they focus on Musk as an engineer. They focus on Musk really as almost a politician. Are we going to get a surprise out of Cupertino here? You're going out. You've got, you know, you have a Lear. You don't have a Gulfstream, right? Not yet. Just the Lear. Well, when you go for the ETF goes public, you know, you get up to the G6. Help me here with Apple here coming up.

Look, I think Monday, and we'll be there. It's a very important day. So they're having their developers conference. For WWDC, the developer conference for Apple, the yearly one. The reason it's so important, and we've talked about it on the show a bunch, is that you go back to a year ago, the AI vision, Apple intelligence, clearly they were elite, and a lot of that really never came to fruit. But the developers...

are the hearts and lungs of Apple. They basically, they need, when it comes to iOS, when it comes to future Rolex, show developers, when it comes to AI,

This is the platform that you're going to build on. Let's get out front on this. They have an agreement with Google on search, right? Everyone's happy, except for regulators, etc. Why don't they do an agreement, drop a bombshell Monday on Gemini, on Google Gemini? I don't get it. Look, I think a lot of these things are... I think there's so many things that are on the table, potentially, in terms of what they could announce and even what they could start to show breadcrumbs about. When you talk about perplexity and some others, in other words...

The big issue for Apple right now is that they know the regulators in the, you know, if you think about DOJ and others that they're in, in sort of the car in the spider web of, they need to be careful too, in terms of partnerships, they need to make sure that they don't continue to sort of go down the path that everything they do is going to get fought.

And I think that's why Google is going to continue to be a huge partner of theirs. Email comes in here. Mrs. Keene emails in. Is Dan wearing real snow milk? Did you spill something? Yes. She nailed it? She nailed it. For those of you on radio, it's a certain look. Is this going to be a collab here? Is there anything we want to announce? Yeah, I mean, we'll have more coming out in the summer, but we will.

we are this summer be having a clothing collab a collab yeah it's gonna be a Dan Ives collection and I'm gonna make sure I'm gonna make sure we have one for Keane and one for Paul and one for the whole team come on all the collabs are 2x none of it would fit us they barely get into Lisa come on

For the cool kids. Dan, real quick there. I'm looking at Apple. When you talk to your institutional investors around the world, do they ever say, man, the stock is down 20% this year. It's flat over the last 12 months. I'm frustrated, which we rarely have that kind of discussion with Apple. But are you having those discussions? And how do you think that plays out? There's a lot of frustration because really it's kind of been a treadmill and it's been an underperformer.

But I, just like I have for decades, walk investors through, you have to be able to see the free cash flow. You have to be able to understand the install base. You have to understand that 70% of the world is going to access an AI device through Apple. Dan, we keep you on for another hour, but it's jobs day. We don't care. Dan Hives, thank you so much. Wedbush, congratulations on a newly minted ETF. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at 7 a.m. Eastern on Apple Podcasts.

Right now, a perfect time to speak to Callie Cox, Chief Market Strategist at Ritholtz Wealth Management.

Kelly, guess the anguish of those in cash right now. Is it a normal OMG I'm missing out or is there something unusual into the end of the quarter?

Well, they're getting 4% right now if they've done some searching. So I can't imagine the English is too bad, especially because you missed the April volatility. But Tom, I've been shocked by how resilient the stock market has been. I mean, the stock market has always been resilient, but there hasn't been that economic confirmation to really make me feel better about this rebound.

Callie, one of the drivers of this, obviously, of the markets in general are earnings growth. And I think there's some concern out there about earnings growth. We've seen earnings estimates come down. Have they come down enough or are they still at risk as more and more of these tariffs kind of find their way into the economy?

Well, it's interesting because companies had a really good first quarter on the surface. I mean, S&P earnings grew almost 14%, and that was a good six or seven percentage points above what analysts expected at the beginning of the season. But the guidance that we got, which you guys have talked to me enough, you know that I'm always talking about the guidance and looking ahead.

The guidance was pretty weak. We saw some companies withdraw, we saw the bimodal guidance, and we saw earnings revisions for the year continuously cut and cut and cut. So now earnings growth is expected to be around 7% for the year. And I got to think that there's a wide disparity that could sit on either side of that number because we just simply don't know where trade policy could be. It's probably

not going to be as bad as what we first thought it would be on april 2nd but uh it still doesn't feel like analysts know how to quite deal with the trade policy impact on profits given that maybe some of the earnings uncertainty here if for no other reason then we just don't know what trade policy will be are there certain sectors or certain areas you guys feel more comfortable maybe just parking some money

Well, at Ritholtz, we really like value. We especially like it because our investors are investing for five years, 10 years, decades down the road, and we want them to have the smoothest ride possible because we're all human, we're trying to sleep at night. So, we generally lean towards value, but we think right now is actually a smart time to lean away from those sectors with high expectations. I know this is a hard thing to say, but tech is at the top of that list.

um you know obviously tech is being thrown around by a number of different factors right now especially this morning i mean look at tesla but uh tech i think people forget is one of the highest exposed sectors when it comes to international revenue and cost of goods exposure and you know if you have restrictive trade policy there then you know tech is probably going to get hit in one way or the other stay there kelly we're going to come back to you we need to get the markets open right now we do a data check kelly cox looks good equity bonds

Currencies, commodities with Barry Ritholtz at Ritholtz Wealth Management. So too do we. Futures up 57 right now. It's a 1% move. The VIX from that 20 weeks ago, the angst.

comes into a hugely bull market, 17.14 on the VIX. The yield space up off the jobs report, but then velocity to a higher yield, 4.93% in the 30-year bond, 4.46%, make it 4.47%.

percent of the 10-year yield the 10-year real yield 2.13 percent we staggered to the open we stagger with john tucker all right right at the uh get go we are higher down jones industrial average up 323 points a rise of about eight tenths of a percent the s p 500 53 points higher that is up nine tenths of a percent and right now all 11 major industry groups in the s p 500

are higher the Nasdaq 100 get the first trades there one percent higher up 222 points most actively traded in the early going shares of Tesla right now uh four percent higher followed by Nvidia up just about two percent and uh Graham Holdings the third most actively traded stock that is three percent higher

And that is your opening bell report. We check the markets for you all day long right here on Bloomberg Radio. I'm John Tucker, and that is your Bloomberg Business Flash. Paul and Tom. John Tucker, thanks so much. Kelly Cox with us with Ritholtz Wealth Management. Kelly, are we in a bull market? I just said that, and somebody sent a note in and said, Tom, it's not a bull market. Kelly Cox, are we in a bull market?

Oh, yeah, that's the right person because I argue with my colleagues about this all the time. I take the investor's point of view. I look at it on a closing basis. And when it comes to closing prices, the S&P has not yet fallen 20% from a high. Now, you could say intraday that happened because it did. But I still think we're in a bull market. I'm not exactly...

excited and really, really optimistic about the future, but we are still in a bull market. And I think as long as we are, you do have to wonder if stocks can climb a wall of worry here.

So, Kelly, what do you think of the are you guys trying in your portfolio? Are you trying to structure in a slower economy with some of your positioning here or maybe something even worse? Or are you just saying, you know what, we're going to look through all this near term noise and think about the next five to 10 years?

Well, we're doing the latter. We're looking through all this noise. You know, we generally I kind of go back to what I was saying a few minutes ago, how we build portfolios aimed towards stability and consistency. In a way, those portfolios actually do look like the kind of portfolio you want in a time like this when job growth is slowing, when the economy is weakening, when there are a lot of reasons to be nervous out there. We lean into quality. We lean into volume. Sorry, not volume value. You know, we we

we try to structure portfolios that can get you a consistent rate of return. So right now, we're really proud of our international exposure. We're glad international stocks are working. And quite frankly, we're glad the stock market is working. It's just a time to be very mindful of risks and manage those risks. Dow up 429 points. We quote the Dow for Barry Ritholtz. Just so everybody knows that. Tesla,

Up 12 points, make it 13 points. Come off, let me get that low yesterday. I can do this with a Bloomberg Professional Service, 274. And we're now rocking 297. I'm looking at the internet. Circle Internet Group, CRCL, up another 18% today. The stock was up 160% yesterday on its IPO.

I don't know what this signals. I mean, I'd like to think it signals the IPO market maybe is in better shape than we thought. Callie, when you see a stock like Circle Internet or just anything, but an IPO that trades up so much, what do you guys make of that? Well, it at least shows the animal spirits are here.

I'm, again, a little confused as to why there are such strong animal spirits right now. I mean, maybe that's just the resiliency of the retail investor or of the everyday investor who, you know, still feels like they're at a good place with their finances. Job market's weakening, but it's clearly having, it's clearly a little more bifurcated than we think.

I don't think this lasts very long, especially with so much business uncertainty out there. But for now, the IPO window is open and investors are liking it. Kelly, thank you. Kelly Cox in short notice of Real Holds Wealth Management.

If this government spending in defense goes towards things like R&D that have dual-use civilian purposes, you could get spillovers that actually end up enhancing productivity in Europe and so have a more long-lasting impact on growth.

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This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at 7 a.m. Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Terminal. I don't know why, but May and June, and maybe it's the ferment of the moment of Washington, the war in Ukraine.

The quality of the writing now across all politics is exceptional. I've been remiss in not bringing you the great voices out there. Jennifer Harris out of Wake Forest is one of the great thinkers about getting beyond the politics that we used to know. She joins us now. It is a piercing essay in Foreign Affairs Magazine, the post-neoliberal imperative. Jennifer, honored to have you with us here. What's a neoliberal? Define that. Jennifer Harris

Sure. It's an imperfect term, essentially referring to the economic recipe that has prevailed really across the political spectrum since Reagan arrived on the scene. So a deep confidence in markets to allocate capital effectively and a corresponding skepticism about the ability of government to sort of shape markets that...

you know, catches out in policy terms towards deregulation, you know, freer trade, free movement of capital. Right. In the political battle of 26, 28, I haven't said this yet, Paul, I'm depressed, of 32? No, boy. Michael Barr, are we going to still be working at 32?

I know I probably will. Jennifer, I'm depressed. In the political battle out two presidential generations, is there any understanding of what a new Washington consensus looks like? I think there is. I mean, I think we've really been working on the next script, so to speak, the next consensus about what makes for good economic policy since Trump's arrival on the scene in 2016, right? He upended a whole lot

a lot of these sort of nostrums or pieces of conventional wisdom about what makes for good economic policy. And you saw a fair bit of consensus across both right and left on rethinking trade, on a new willingness to embrace industrial policy, on sort of a different philosophy around antitrust.

And I think at least on the left and maybe on the right, you know, thinking, rethinking monetary policy, you know, we saw the Phillips curve essentially break over the last couple of years, a sense that we might not have to manufacture recessions in order to get...

inflation down. So, you know, I think that you see these seeds of rethinking on both right and left. That's what journalists like Dave Lenhardt at The New York Times has called a new centrism. So I think you do see signal amidst the voluminous noise, let's say, of Washington. The President Trump and his followers seem to have really taken over the GOP as we all grew up with it. Is that something that can outlive President Trump, do you think?

I do think so. I think it's a generation shift. You look at a lot of, you know, under 40, under 45 staffers on the right, organizations like American Compass. They are actually out there pushing for revenue increases in the current tax fight, which is interesting.

Last time I checked, not Paul Ryan's Republican Party, not anything that Grover Norquist is out there comfortable with. And yet it's really part of the debate. Do I think it's going to prevail this time? No. But just the fact that we're having that kind of open debate online.

on right of center, you know, and as these high stakes questions are really getting called, I think is testament to the sea change in thinking. Jennifer, thank you so much. Jennifer Harris, writing in Foreign Affairs, co-chair BuildUS, and of course, her former public service to the nation with the National Security Council. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts.

Listen live each weekday, 7 to 10 a.m. Eastern on Bloomberg.com, the iHeartRadio app, TuneIn, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Terminal.

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