Traders Look to Earnings as Trade Uncertainty Continues
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We always like to start...

the day and start the week with someone with broad perspective. Right now joining us is Robert Kaplan. We're thrilled that he could join us today, forever associated with his Goldman Sachs, but his public service noted to the nation as the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and just a really broad view of where we are.

Thrilled, Robert, that you would begin our Monday with us. Where are we right now? In a broad sense, can our institutions survive this onslaught of uncertainty? They can survive, but we've got a number of weeks more to go to get through this fog. And in particular,

You know, there's two or three big changes going on. There's the government spending cuts. There's the changes in immigration policy, which are having even a bigger effect than are being discussed.

And on tariffs, the thing that we're just not sure about is the Trump administration intending to negotiate tariffs down to zero, 10%, 20%. I noticed over the weekend, they said that they want to settle out at 20% to 50%. And those are dramatically different outcomes. Right.

Your charm, Robert Kaplan, among the people think that everybody within the Kaplan School comes from six zip codes somewhere in the vicinity of Boston or New York or Washington. You are a brethren of Kansas.

out of the University of Kansas. This makes you different. You understand the span of America. I'm looking at a statistic where Kansas has $2.3 billion worth of products in aerospace to the rest of the world. How a threat is Kansas from this upset in Washington?

- Well, it is threatened and it's got a lot of farmers, big agricultural economy, and our farmers rely very heavily on foreign markets, China for an example. And so there's a lot of concern in Kansas. And also there are a lot of small businesses and bigger businesses I'm seeing are having, they don't love the uncertainty, but they have a lot of levers to manage. Small businesses are telling me

that they're at risk if this goes on for a number of more months. There are many of them are thinking that they won't be able to stay in business. Paul, over the weekend, buried in the headlines, I know you weren't paying attention. At least it wasn't paying attention. China canceled 12,000 metric tons of United States pork shipments. Oh. That's a lot of bacon. That's a lot of bacon there, and I think we're going to see more of that. Robert, when you have...

Discussions with your clients, Robert, with your bankers at Goldman Sachs. Is the discussion about a recession is coming or whether it's coming and whether we can get through this? What's the real economic fallout that you're hearing from your clients and bankers?

I think people see that in certain sectors, there's already a slowing. So travel, leisure, there's less tourism. That we know. Shipping, we know, is weak, and you were talking about earlier. And in other parts, the sentiment is very negative, but we don't see a severe decline. I think most people I talk to are expecting further slowing. It's not a

a fait accompli, but I think they're worried that there's been pre-ordering, it's artificially bolstered GDP recently, and that there's a little bit of a cliff coming and a more substantial decline in growth, but they don't know. But they're preparing for a more severe slowing. In that regard, Robert, what do you think the Federal Reserve can do, should do?

I think they should be making clear, as I think J-PAL did a couple of weeks ago, that they're still very focused on fighting inflation. You don't want inflation expectations to get de-anchored, unanchored here. And that's what he was trying to do. And otherwise, don't make predictions. Don't talk about June or not June, because they don't know. We don't even know what the tariff policies are ultimately going to be.

Keep your options open and don't try to be a prognosticator. Be a risk manager. Formerly with the Dallas Fed and now at Goldman Sachs, Robert Kaplan with us to start us strong this morning in this extended conversation. I mean, I guess we could try it out, Robert Kaplan, the Fisher equation, the Fisher hypothesis, rather, of central bank theory. But it does come down to lagging or ex post or after the fact. I

I mean, that's the only fallback the central bank has. They have to wait and see the labor market crack before they act, right? Well, they need to see more evidence in the hard data of slowing. And also, they don't know, and we don't know, this cost shock we're about to get. How inflationary is it going to be?

The irony is up until January 20th, goods were disinflating globally. There's a lot of global overcapacity for manufacturing. And the service sector was where the inflation issue is. Now it's changing. And so the Fed's going to have to see more evidence. And in fairness to them, it's hard to make

policy forecasts or judgments when you don't know yet what the policies are and they don't. - I mean, Paul, should we do a chart on Bloomberg Radio Monday morning? - Yeah, that works. - I think a chart works with Robert Kaplan. And you know where I'm going with this, Robert Kaplan. I'm going to the 10-year real yield. We are in betweeny within the dispersion, folks. And the answer's at 1.99%. Paul, it really begins to show this economic slowdown.

down at 1.80 so we're we are distant from that identifying of a slowing economy yeah we're certainly seeing a GDP forecast on Wall Street coming down Robert when you talk to your your corporate clients at Goldman Sachs what are they doing about some of their longer term plans whether it's long-term capex whether it's MNA are they hitting the pause button are they trying to move forward

They're mainly hitting the pause button. They're not canceling plans, but they're pausing them. And the other thing they're doing is, and again, these tariffs have come very abruptly. So many CEOs have told me, listen, if I had six to 12 months, I wouldn't solve this, but I could make moves, but this is happening now. And so they're re-looking at their plans for supply chains and logistics.

And on the investing side, we are seeing people who started the year wanting to over-allocate to the dollar.

are now saying, "Maybe we're over-allocated to the dollar." They've done a 180, and they're starting to look at broader alternatives away from the dollar. That doesn't mean that that's what they're gonna be doing six months from now, but they're again, they're concerned, and it's more than tariffs, that they don't understand the US economy and US institutional framework as well as they thought they did, and that's giving them some pause.

Should we go to the Dallas Fed with Robert Kaplan? No, we can do that. I think we can do that. Robert Kaplan, as you know, each Fed has its own characteristics, its own past, the Robert McTeer, Robert Kaplan past of the Dallas Fed, but it's on the border as well. We're not speaking for the Dallas Fed. I want to make clear that Dr. Kaplan doesn't do that, folks. But Robert Kaplan, to be clear here, how do you perceive our tension with Mexico going

as you look at all the research of your Dallas Fed? Yeah, so Texas, as you note, is the largest exporting state in the country. The relationship between Texas and Mexico in terms of logistics and supply chain arrangements, as well as people, by the way, from Mexico coming across the border to shop,

in Texas, that those relationships are essential. And this is why for many companies domiciled, not just in Texas, but in the country, being able to send goods back and forth across the border with Mexico, as well as Canada has been essential.

to domiciling in Texas and in the United States and making sure we're globally competitive. And people don't realize that if you want to encourage reshoring to the U.S. and you want to take share from Asia, you would want to preserve those logistics and chain arrangements. So with all your experience, Robert Kaplan, how do the people around the president, including the secretary of treasury,

Allow him to save face and walk back from his McKinley-ite tariffs. So I think the nub of the issue right now is it's unclear how much cost savings we're getting out of Doge.

Okay? And I think that's part of this discussion. And I think they're still a little bit wedded that we're going to get the offset, we're going to get revenue from tariffs, and that'll help us in the deleveraging, it'll help us justify a bigger tax cut. And I think all the studies I've looked at have shown that every dollar of tariff revenue you get, you give it back.

portion of it in terms of lower growth and damaging groups. But that's the key to, I think, why they're clinging to these tariffs at higher levels, not at zero. And I think they may be better served

letting go a little bit on that concept. In the zeitgeist this morning, Paul Sweeney, as a bar chart, I'm going to give credit to the Tax Foundation showing the teensy-weensy revenue build from tariffs versus the ginormous revenue that comes in from income taxes. Right. It's a sobering chart. It is. Robert, as former president of the Dallas Fed, you have an appreciation for...

Immigration, legal and illegal, being in that part of the country here. What do you believe the impact of this reduction of illegal immigration coming across the border will do to the U.S. labor market? Because I'm not sure really folks are clear on how that works.

So, one of the things I would say over the last four years, and then during the Trump administration, we had in excess of a million workers a year, immigrants,

who came in and joined the workforce. It appears now this year, that could be in the low hundreds of thousands, we can't tell yet. So that's gonna slow workforce growth, that slows GDP, it tightens the workforce. But the bigger thing going on that I would call out, there are millions of undocumented immigrants in this country in the workforce.

who are unsure of their status, and I'm hearing from their employers that some number of them are not coming into work, and they're certainly not shopping.

and because they're concerned. And so that is making the labor force, at least in the service sector, tighter. And it will slow GDP growth, and it's probably affecting consumer spending. Robert Kaplan, generous of you to be with us this morning. Vice Chairman Goldman Sachs, thank you so much. And again, his public service at the Dallas Fed.

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You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 7 to 10 a.m. Eastern. Listen on Apple Podcasts,

CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Or watch us live on YouTube. With a shocking statistic, Stephanie Roth joins us right now. You say May, May 2nd, the April report is where the job economy breaks and we only get 90,000 non-farm payrolls? Yeah, I'm surprised how below consensus we are for this print.

A combination of seasonal factors, the weather, the early jobs print, and then on top of that, all the tariff uncertainty. Yet we're meaningfully below consensus. I'm not sure why. Where are they wrong? To cut to the chase, folks, this is really important. Where's everybody wrong who thinks it's June or July where the Stephanie Roth number kicks in? And I think we're going to get a bigger jobs headwind in the next couple of months, but it should probably start to leak into this print.

There's a ton of uncertainty. It's hard to know whether you should hire or not. It's hard to know whether you should invest. And then on top of that, you do have some funky things about this print that put additional downward pressure. Stephanie, as we think about some of the economic uncertainties that may result from higher tariffs, for you, is it more growth or inflation? Where do you think we're going to see it?

- I think we'll see, from a growth perspective, we'll see it in the jobs prints. And then from an inflation perspective, we probably won't see it until, say, the June print. So things like pre-tariff sales, a lot of the inventory is gonna get worked down. And then companies are gonna start to raise prices once the new inventory feeds in. But by the way, they haven't really been importing that much from China,

because tariff rates are well over 140%, which is on the well end of the laugh record. Paul, I should mention last month was 228,000 nonfarm payrolls. The survey, I didn't realize how way down it is. It's wicked down. Good morning, Boston. 130,000. And Stephanie Roth in Wolf Research is at 90,000. I like that. So, Stephanie, what...

How do you think this economy is going to play out? Are you guys calling for a recession over Wolf Research? No. I have 0.6% GDP for this year. 0.6%. We have a couple of weeks until we start to sort of reach the point of no return. So if Trump, in fact, reduces the China tariff rate, which I think there is a decent chance of that, then we can actually get out of this. We end up with a sluggish year, but the economy can hold up.

If we're sitting here in August and the tariffs are still well over 100% on China, then yeah, I think we are in a different situation. But I just don't think the administration has that pain tolerance to really deal with companies doing significant layoffs. He cares less about the stock market, clearly. But once we start to really hear from companies, which has started to happen last week, he's very likely to sort of roll back the tariffs. On 90,000 jobs, what's a vector of your unemployment rate? Are you getting out to a 5% unemployment rate?

So we have, well, we have rising up to 4.5% by the end of this year. The thing that we haven't really talked about yet when it comes to labor market is we also have a significant reduction from an immigration perspective. There's gonna be conflicting forces on the unemployment rate where you have the slowdown in the economy, putting upward pressure on the unemployment rate, yet a lot of job supply

reducing because of immigration, putting downward pressure. So that's why the unemployment rate is not going to rise as much in our forecast versus what would otherwise be the case. See how she did that? I get that. That's just amazing. She took labor economics and got, she's the one in the front row I hated. Oh yeah. Because she nailed it. I'm in the back row reading the New York Times. That was my mom. How I feel.

Did it. Doing a crossword puzzle. And so the question then is the Federal Reserve, is there a role here for the Federal Reserve to kind of ease some of the pressure that may be coming into the U.S. economy? No. No. That is not going to happen.

The Fed is not going to be influenced by some of this political noise. They are going to wait until the unemployment rate starts to rise. Jobs are significantly below $100,000 before they can actually significantly ease here. Inflation is going to be well above their target by at least a percentage point. We're going to have 3-ish percent inflation this year. There's no way they can ease unless they start to see actual weakness in the economy. So it's likely that would happen in, call it September of this year, not much before that.

How's the consumer doing? I mean, I heard Secretary Besson over the weekend saying, yeah, I know the forecasts are coming down. I know there's concern out there. I know the survey data, whether it's UMICH or others, are citing concerns. But he...

He was saying this weekend that the consumer is still spending. The consumer is okay. And that's 70% of the U.S. economy. So don't worry so much. How do you view the consumer? I think that's right today. The consumer is fine. They're still employed. Prices haven't really risen. Yeah, when you ask, look at consumer sentiment measures, they're down because consumers realize what's coming in the next couple of months.

But as of now, they haven't really felt it yet. Once they start to see the numbers like we just talked about with some of those companies raising prices significantly, once shelves start to become bare, that's when it could become a lot different. And by the way, when job markets start to slow down a lot, that's when the consumer is very much likely to pull back. When you say, this came up this weekend, when someone fancy like you says, and shelves become bare,

We look at that as like Eastern Europe or Russia 50 years ago. What does, quote, shelves become bare look like?

Well, COVID, that's the most recent example. And it's going to be a similar type of thing if we don't change the tariffs pretty significantly. Tariff rates in China need to come down all in below 50%. If they're sitting much above 50%, it doesn't make sense. You mean China 5-0? Correct, China 5-0. All in under 10%. What number under 10% is a trigger point where we calm down?

I haven't seen that yet. So we need to see the China tariffs come down to something that's below the 50%. Also, that has to include the fentanyl tariffs, too. That's just 20%. So the number that we got, the reciprocal tariffs that we got on April 2nd have to come back to that 34% is kind of a place that would at least be okay.

And then on the rest of the countries, we have to just stay at this 10% or lower. Or lower. I'm studying, Paul, the or lower phrase. And to me, it's almost back to 3%. But you're the expert. Or lower is 9%.

If we're at 10% on the rest of the countries, and by the way, if we have some sort of deal with Canada and Mexico, then we're in an okay place. Not great, but okay. I don't think we need to return back to 3% necessarily, but we cannot stay with China in particular is just a really big problem for this economy. If we stay at the rest of 10%, the economy can manage that. Paul from New Jersey wants to know, have we modeled in the market reaction to a 90,000 non-farm payroll? Hmm.

Yeah, I think it would probably be a negative one, just given how optimistic the forecasts are for this month, which is truly surprising to me. I totally agree with that. This is great. So, Tom, I bought my Vespa last year, so I think I now have a trade deficit with Italy. I'm not that worried about it. That's okay. Yeah, but I made up for it with a beverage of my choice. I got the tab on the seventh floor of the Hassler and said, well, that made up for Paul's deficit.

Thank you. Stephanie Roth, brilliant. Thank you. Really, really brilliant with Wolf Research. I can't say enough. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at 7 a.m. Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.

You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg 1130. Joining us now, she never has keen on Henrietta Trey's co-founder of Veda Partners. Henrietta, the people like you in Washington this morning are going to read 4,000, 400,000 biblical words from Ashley Parker and Michael Scherer published in The Atlantic today. The rest of us just look at the polls and the president is losing.

Color the character of the polls and the impact on Republicans over the weekend. Yeah, I mean, I think this is just starting to emerge as an area that Republican members can't afford to ignore.

One of the things that happens when members are out of session is they get an opportunity to just avoid the press, avoid any bad news, and stay away from the topics that are happening in the White House. And as soon as they return to Congress, they're going to be confronted by these numbers because they're so sharply changed from just a couple months ago. The generic Democrat is now a net six-point swing ahead of Republicans from where they were in November.

So that is a material issue. We have to look at about 39 Republican seats that are open now and potentially gettable. And that's that's where they're going to be spending their time. Billy House, venerable at Bloomberg, New Yorkers boo and jeer, Republicans loller. It's circus like town hall. That's the future of the GOP, isn't it?

I mean, that was pretty incredible. I actually posted this on Instagram account talking about coming on here this morning. There's like a 15 bullet point

rule list for Mike Lawler's town hall on how constituents should be expected to comport themselves during this meeting in order for him to even hold it. The blowback for Mike Lawler is pretty substantial right now. I'm sure you've seen that Elise Stefanik is polling ahead of him in the race for a national or a statewide race.

And I think this really puts pressure on Lawler to get a maximum achievable deliverable on the salt deduction. Y'all talk about it all the time. And it's because it's so important to New Yorkers. There's almost nothing that Mike Lawler can deliver on salt that would be sufficient to overcome how negatively New Yorkers are going to think about it. And that's because if he does nothing, the salt cap reverts back to its previous position of totally uncapped.

So there's almost only failure here if he votes for any of the tax bills that are coming through. So it's a really tough spot for him to be in right now. So speaking of the tax bill, the 2025 reconciliation bill, I guess they'll start work on it at some point very soon. But I mean, I think they need to cut like $2 trillion worth of federal spending. I don't know how you do that. What's the game plan there?

No, you're right to talk about that. And look at the sequencing that they've set up. So they're going to do all of the dessert first. This week, there's going to be hearings at a couple of committees, but all of those committees are tasked with increasing the deficit. So for example, $150 billion that the Armed Services Committee gets to spend, $100 billion that the Judiciary Committee gets to spend. This is where all the spending is going to go out on the popular stuff, like

investing in the military or investing in immigration detention facilities and judges and things like that. The real heart of this bill, the $2 trillion in cuts that they're going to try to identify, the $4.5 trillion tax bill, $3.8 trillion of which is already spoken for, three of an extension of existing rates, that's all going to come late this month. I wouldn't be surprised, and I'm starting to telegraph to clients now,

that that could very easily slip past Speaker Johnson's already delayed expectation of a Memorial Day rollout. So the Waste and Means Committee is really where you want to concentrate your time. They're the ones who get all the money to raise and spend. And they're not scheduled yet. It won't be probably until the very last week before Memorial Day that we see their efforts.

Bloomberg News reporting and others as well. Trump floats new income tax cut in bid to ease bite of tariffs. Is a new income tax cut possible, reasonable? No, it's not. But I do appreciate that the president is acknowledging that the tax bill they're working on right now does not include cuts. We've walked through this math in the past, and I think it's really worth spending time on. This is a gigantic bill, $5.3 trillion of spending.

But almost all of that is already allocated to things that have either expired at the end of this year or will have expired since 2022. So the main stimulative provisions of this package, I think, are going to be somewhere in the range of about $300 to $500 billion. That is not enough to eliminate the individual income tax for individuals under $200,000. And it's off by several trillion dollars. So it's not close.

I think the best that you can hope for is that of that $300 to $500 billion that they're going to have to spend, you could either hike the sub cap a little bit. You can try to eliminate taxes on tips, which does not have support in the United States Senate. You cannot come close to eliminating taxes on Social Security because that costs $1.8 trillion. But there's really just not a lot there.

HENRIETTA, THANK YOU. JUST BRILLIANT. IT'S JUST REALLY, REALLY INTERESTING ABOUT THE POLITICAL IMMEDIACY THAT IS OUT THERE. HENRIETTA TRAZE IS WITH VEDA PARTNERS.

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This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at 7 a.m. Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Terminal. This is an important conversation. Joseph LaVornia with us around the market opening, chief economist, SMBC, NICO Securities, with some public service in the first term of a Trump administration.

So whatever they're going to do, they're going to save face and jobbo down these outrageous tariffs. Okay, begin with that. They're going to get down, and let's say they get back to a 10% blended rate.

except the pre-trade war number was a 3% blended rate. Where does Joe LaVornia see the saving of face going to get to an efficacious blended rate? Is it 10, 9, 7, back to 3%? Where's that number, Joe LaVornia? I've got a jack-in-the-box story I want to tell you, but offline. Serious, true story. I've got to get that off my chest. Okay. Okay, that's number one. Two,

The president said on the campaign trail last year that it was 10% for everybody but China at 60. Those are the numbers that I'm kind of working with that we ultimately go back to, at least maybe in terms of statutory numbers. But as your point, blended rates will probably be a lot less. There'll be carve-outs. There'll be some exemptions. That's what I'm guessing. This is Joe Borgia guessing it. I haven't seen that study. Yes. You're encyclopedic at this. Where's your efficacious blended tariff rate? Under...

For non-China, my guess, and this is a wide confidence interval, is under 10%. Because if you look at what the administration wants to do, it wants to reindustrialize, raise some revenues. China's a peer competitor and a strategic adversary. So everything that's being done is really as it relates to China. So there will be some tariffs on our trading partners for unfair trade practices. But as the reduction to 10% minimum, assuming there was reciprocity,

That's kind of what I think we need to work off of. 10% is the number. And then again, I'm guessing because of what's already happened with some announced carve-outs and exceptions, it'll be lower. But I don't know, Tom, what it is. I don't know what it is. And China's will be much higher. And if it goes from 145 down to 60, as the president alluded to before, I mean, it's still a very high number, but it may not feel as bad because the number is coming down from such a high point when the negotiations began. What does that tariff level do to your GDP call?

I've been pretty optimistic on GDP, generally speaking. I mean, when I did the calculations of a 10% tariff on everybody but China, 60% on China, I got about a nine-tenths increase in...

assuming no offsets in the dollar, just the pure math, of less than 1%, it was nine-tenths. And then the Fed had done a piece back in September 18 of 15% across the board, and they had basically the same number. What that would mean for GDP, I mean, initially, maybe it's a few tenths. Like, it's not a big number. The problem right now, the way I see it, is the market's worried about uncertainty, and it's very, very hard to quantify uncertainty. What's amazing is if you look at, and this is just what the data show, if you look at the small business data,

The correlation between uncertainty and real GDP was positive from about late '80s up to about 2015. And now it's gone negative, but not by much. So the correlation is only about minus 0.2. So as much as we talk about uncertainty,

It's probably over overwrought and exaggerated like this can't go on all year. And my own working assumption is that the president is a great negotiator. He's going to get something done and then we're going to and the economy is going to be OK. The bottom line is the polling is cratering. I don't know where it is. I don't know where it's going to be in a week or two. There'll be more polls. There always are.

The concern out there is, quote, unquote, empty shelves. You've served time with President Trump. What's going to be the reaction of this administration if we get empty shelves? I don't think we're going to get empty shelves, Tom, for a variety of reasons. I think a lot of that is just fear, fear-mongering in some sense. You mentioned the polls.

And you have to be careful with the polling, because I know the internal polling that the president uses is not showing that weakness. And neither do other good polls like Rasmussen. Some of these polls from ABC, Washington Post, to me, do not accurately reflect his base of support, because there's always been a real difficulty in getting the MAGA person in that sample. And as someone I used to work with used to say, there's a lot of propaganda polling. So I'd be very careful on that. The

The equity market has recovered nicely off its lows. The bond market's down about 50 basis points from where it was in December. I'm watching gas and oil prices. Those are moving lower. That's important. Those kitchen table issues are really key to many of the Trump voters. And that ultimately will matter more than I think some of these other metrics. But we'll see. I mean, I'm assuming, of course, that these policies are going to work.

and the economy is going to be okay if it turns out at the end of the year you're right and there's nothing on the shelves i got to interrupt in the time we have thank you ian bremer for sending this over to me really appreciate ian bremer being out front the president of the united states on a day of election in canada and it's a long long true social whatever tweet i've got to find it here now

If Canada becomes the cherished 51st state of the United States of America, no more artificially drawn line from many years ago on the day of an election of our neighbor to the north. You've got to be kidding me. But Tom, this is Trump trolling. There's no but, Joe. No, there is a but. I mean, Vassar, you went to Vassar. Vassar might as well be in Canada. Well, Vassar certainly is not the college that I went to when I graduated in 91, I can tell you that. But look,

This is Trump trolling and having fun with it. There's no way that Canada is going to be the 51st state. Ian should know better when he comments on that.

So talk to us about, I think what's important coming up here is we've got to get a tax bill done. And that's probably a bigger issue for the economy. Well, that's exactly right. That's the point that I've made. And that is that the tariffs are obviously important. And I've been arguing that we're going to have some clarity on these tariffs because even though they won't be scored in the CBO data, they'll be used to get perhaps some of these fiscally conservative people on board. Right now, the tariffs, this is only through March. And the April data are going to show more strength.

But we're generating $100 billion in tariff revenue this year. So that's a big number. We need the budget done because the budget is going to give clarity on taxes. If the budget drags on past the summer recess and we're now in Q3, we're going to have a problem on the economy. 15 seconds is all I got. We need to have you back, Joe. Is tariff revenue going to substitute for a lower income tax burden?

It will offset the revenue loss from no tax on tips over time and some of the Social Security benefits. So effectively, yes.

There you go. Joe Livonia, thank you so much. This morning with SMBC and EcoSecurities. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at 7 a.m. Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg 1130. The newspapers. Lisa, what do you have?

Okay, so I wanted to start with this one that stuck out to me. This was in the Wall Street Journal. It says a new group of people are turning to weight loss drugs like Ozempic. It's not kind of the overweight, heavily overweight. It's amateur athletes that are looking to raise their performance. So, you know, the ones who go out and do like the 5K or maybe a triathlon or something. Or weight train every day. Okay, just throwing that out there. Just throwing it out there. Thanks. But like runners, cyclists, anything like that.

So the Wall Street Journal spokesman, they said their bodies are feeling stronger. They said that they've shaved like a minute off of their 5k time, which is huge. Yep. If you're one of those runners, but they're warning that you know what, if you suppress too much of your appetite, it's not good if you're an athlete at that kind of caliber, because it can affect you. And then some of the side effects. I mean, I get the whole heavy people, but other side effects.

Different people have different side effects, depending on what your dose is. Nausea is a big one. Yes, and what your dosage is. So that's why doctors suggest, like, micro-dosing, like giving smaller amounts of it. But it's just a new, growing group that's really turning to this. What do you think? I mean, you're the only one in the studio in the control room healthy. Would you take a Zempik to, say, slide 42 seconds off your Sterling 5K? I don't think so. I don't think I would. I mean, it's because of the side effects. I don't know.

I don't think it's worth it, but that's just my opinion. Stick with the yogurt. Next. Stick with the yogurt. Okay, egg prices coming back down. Costco update, I went there. They're in the $7 range now for the two dozen, so getting a little bit better.

But the effects of the sky high rise still being felt. So you had tractor supply. They're halfway through. They have this annual baby chick sales event. And apparently, they have strong results. So the CEO said that the core customer base, they're expanding their flock. But what they pointed out is that they have a strong interest from new customers who want them for their backyard. So more people are buying them so that they can raise the chickens. What do you do from your upper east side? What do you do? Don't know.

I got a chicken coop. It's just off the Frick. I mean, you know, if you go down to 70, I got 14 chickens going just off the Frick. They just reopened the Frick collection. I saw that. Spectacular renovation success of the Frick. Museum. They called me up and they just said the chicken coop doesn't cut it. It's got to

You've got to take that out. You've just got to make more chickens. You've got to make more chickens. Oh, you think this is funny. You don't understand. Coyotes in Central Park. Next. There you go. There you go. Okay, last one. Paul, this is to ask me because of you. You're a Yellowstone big fan, okay? So Bloomberg's Grease Time, Lucas Shaw had this great,

Great, great article. Really, really breaks it down as to how this became this $3 billion franchise and then where it goes next from here. So it really breaks it down. I mean, it talked about Taylor Sheridan getting ready to quit. He didn't want to make it because he was, you know, getting a lot of feedback. He sold it to HBO, who decided not to go ahead with it

Then it landed at Paramount. And now it's one of the most valuable franchises in Hollywood. Yeah. I mean, he's done two or three prequels and there's more coming. The risk is here that they're just going to burn through this whole concept too quickly. But, you know, you make money while you can, I guess so. But again, it's been a huge, huge franchise. And they're going to have spinoffs.

from the Yellowstone story show, which ended, they're going to have spinoffs using some of the existing characters. So more to come. Have you seen, like, Lucas said, 1923? 1923, 1883. Yep, exactly. No, I have not seen them. I have not gotten into them, but I know they're super popular. Yeah.

but I'll be looking for the new spinoffs from the existing Yellowstone. Right. There's like Dutton Ranch. Is it going to be another one coming out? 1944. I want to talk to you more about this because I thought the Lucas show essay was just, I'm glad you brought that up. And it gets into how Paramount lost a lot of money from it. Tons of money. And then boom, we'll talk to Paul about that later, folks. I think it is, you know, for the culture of America, it's really something like, how do you invest in all these? It used to be easy.

I mean, you know, you were little Richard in the 50s. Lisa Mateo, thank you so much. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday, 7 to 10 a.m. Eastern, on Bloomberg.com, the iHeartRadio app, TuneIn, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Terminal.

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