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cover of episode EP75 对话中金基金耿帅军:乘风破浪的“新”核心资产

EP75 对话中金基金耿帅军:乘风破浪的“新”核心资产

2025/1/10
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话中有金

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耿帅军
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耿帅军:在进行投资之前,必须明确自身的投资目标与约束,例如,是追求长期资产保值增值,还是希望通过承担更大风险来获取更高的潜在收益。然后,根据自身情况选择合适的投资标的,例如,对于对A股市场有一定了解但精力有限的投资者,建议选择传统意义上的大盘宽基指数,例如A500指数,因为它不需要深入研究不同策略和行业景气度。而对于对市场有一定研究的投资者,则可以选择更符合自身投资方式的指数,例如,价值型投资者可以选择价值类指数,成长型投资者可以选择成长型指数。 在选择投资标的时,务必全面了解其指数编制方式、潜在收益和风险,再进行配置,才能做到理性投资。 对于2025年的市场展望,我持乐观态度。首先,投资者应告别熊市心态,因为当前估值处于历史低位,政策发力后,盈利周期有望迎来拐点。其次,市场估值处于中间偏下水平,并且如果考虑到盈利周期处于底部,当前估值可能还被高估。最后,政策一旦发力,效果显现只是时间问题,投资者不应被短期的市场波动左右情绪。 中金基金在布局量化指数产品时,有两个核心定位:一是具备长期配置价值,二是具备研究附加值。我们的产品线主要分为两类:被动指数基金和指数增强基金。被动指数基金直接复制指数来为投资者实现收益;指数增强基金则在一些指数的基础上,通过主动管理来创造超额收益。 在进行指数增强基金的投资时,我们采用偏均衡的多策略模式,结合基本面和数据驱动策略。基本面策略基于公司基本面信息评估公司价值,数据驱动策略则基于市场数据挖掘交易规律。这两种策略互补,通过结合使用,在不同标的和配置方式上获取收益。 我们的风控策略涵盖事前、事中、事后三个层面。事前通过分散化投资来降低风险;事中通过风险模型管理来控制风险;事后通过归因分析来识别风险因素并进行调整。 李鹏:作为主持人,我主要负责引导话题,并对耿帅军的观点进行总结和提炼,帮助观众更好地理解指数投资和相关策略。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why has index investing seen rapid growth in recent years?

Index investing has grown rapidly due to increased market efficiency, making it harder for active management to outperform indices. Policy encouragement, clearer investor understanding of returns, and increased supply of index products by fund managers have also contributed to its popularity. Additionally, long-term investors prefer index funds for their low cost, transparency, and ability to provide market-average returns.

What are the key differences between the CSI A500 and the CSI 300 indices?

The CSI A500 is more industry-balanced, selecting leading companies from various sectors, whereas the CSI 300 focuses on the top 300 companies by market capitalization, often dominated by traditional industries. The A500 also includes more emerging industries and uses ESG criteria to filter companies, aiming for long-term sustainability. Additionally, the A500's historical performance shows a trend of rising bottoms and tops, making it attractive for long-term investors.

What is the core framework of China International Fund's index-enhanced products?

China International Fund's index-enhanced products aim to provide long-term value and research-added benefits. They are divided into two categories: passive index funds that replicate indices and index-enhanced funds that seek to outperform indices through strategies like fundamental analysis and data-driven models. The products are designed to offer diversified, low-cost, and transparent investment options for long-term investors.

How does China International Fund manage risk in its index-enhanced products?

Risk management is conducted at three levels: pre-event, during-event, and post-event. Pre-event, the fund uses diversification to mitigate risks. During-event, it employs structured risk models to manage uncontrollable risks. Post-event, it uses attribution models to analyze the sources of excess returns and adjust strategies accordingly. This comprehensive approach helps stabilize returns and protect investor interests during market volatility.

What is the outlook for the A-share market in 2025 according to Geng Shuaijun?

Geng Shuaijun is optimistic about the A-share market in 2025, citing the need to move away from a bearish mindset, current valuations being in the lower-middle range, and the potential for a profit cycle turnaround. He believes that with policy support and economic recovery, the market could see a significant upturn. Investors are advised to focus on long-term strategies and avoid being swayed by short-term data fluctuations.

Chapters
回顾 2024 年 A 股市场表现,指数投资和 ETF 投资规模创历史新高,体现了市场不断走向成熟。长线配置资金持续增持,指数投资成为常规的长期配置工具。
  • 2024年A股市场整体回报不错
  • 指数投资和ETF规模创历史新高
  • 长线配置资金持续增持
  • 指数投资成为长期配置工具

Shownotes Transcript

📈【本期主题】

  • 什么是指数投资?
  • 中证A500指数大行其道
  • 背后原因是什么?
  • 2025年,如何用ETF布局A股核心资产?

❤️【本期嘉宾】

耿帅军 中金基金量化指数部与多资产部负责人 执业编号:F0900000000108

🔻【主持人】

李鹏 中金财富北京宋庄路营业部投资顾问 执业编号:S0960612040020

📍【时间轴】

00:06:32 回顾2024年指数投资与ETF投资情况

00:15:50 指数投资快速发展的背后原因是什么?未来指数化投资趋势如何?

00:33:06 中证A500和沪深300有什么区别?各有什么亮点?

00:42:21 中金基金在布局ETF和指数增强基金时做了哪些考量?

00:53:56 熟悉规则(基本面策略)+拿到一副好牌(数据驱动策略)=怎么打都不会太差

01:04:49 如何通过事前、事中、事后全方位进行风控措施?

01:08:45 针对长期资产配置,新的一年有什么样的展望?

01:14:39 告别熊市心态,喜“盈”2025

🌟扫描二维码,领取重磅投资干货🌟 免责声明: 中金财富对本文所载信息的准确性、可靠性、时效性及完整性不作任何明示或暗 示的保证。本文仅供参考,不构成任何投资建议,投资者据此操作,风险自负。投资有风险 入市需谨慎。中金财富及其人员对使用本文本内容所引发的任何直接或间接损失概不负责。未经中金财富书面授权许可,任何机构和个人不得以任何形式转发、转载、翻版、复制、 刊登、发表、修改、仿制或引用本文。