Bird Flu: The Next Pandemic?
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Hi, I'm Wendy Zuckerman and you're listening to Science Versus. Today on the show, we are pitting facts against bird flu. And to tell us all about it is editor of Science Versus, Blythe Terrell. Hey, Blythe. Yeah, hey, Wendy. So you've spent the last few months, I feel like, coming into meetings and saying, oh my God, I just learned something crazy about bird flu. Oh my God, Wendy. And I have kept telling you to wait.

for this conversation right here. The day has finally come when I get to talk to you about bird flu. The day has come. Tell me this crazy stuff you're hearing about bird flu. Yes, I will, I will. And actually, Wendy, I will say it's been years that we've been talking about bird flu, not mere months. It's true. It's true. I mean, when I think about it, the alarm bells about bird flu just in general becoming a global pandemic, I feel like they've been going on forever.

and off and on again for like 20 years? I mean, to be honest, it is feeling a little boy who cried wolf at this point. I mean, has something changed? Yeah, right. Yeah. What's different? What's different? That is an extremely fair question. I can say there are a few things that have kind of tipped things over the edge here. And for one thing, we have had like poultry farms being hit super, super hard.

So right now, the biggest outbreak of bird flu in U.S. history is sweeping across this country, leaving millions of hens dead. Since the outbreak started in 2022, the avian flu has impacted more than 135 million birds. We're hearing about these super high egg prices. You can't find eggs, which is partly because of bird flu. Eggflation is back with a vengeance, and it's cooking the family's grocery budget. Are they going up more?

Are all the birds going to die? Wendy, I've seen reports of eggs smuggling, like people getting busted, bringing eggs across the border. Also, like in New York City, in the Bronx, the bodegas are like selling egg loosies. Like, you know, you can usually buy like one cigarette at a time. They're selling like two eggs at a time. In Australia, too, eggs, crazy expensive right now. Supermarkets empty, kind of like the pandemic where the toilet paper used to be. Just like it's kind of like that.

but for eggs. - Yeah, and I mean, it is really like blowing up beyond chickens and eggs. So, you know, at this point they found the bird flu in like all sorts of animals, more than 450 species. - Recent tests show avian flu was detected in foxes, raccoons, skunks, and even domestic cats. - Many health experts are calling this a global pandemic of animals.

The UN has called the spread in animals, quote, unprecedented, actually. And then, yeah, like all this is happening while the Trump administration is making cuts to science and to a bunch of the agencies that handle public health in the US. So with all this going on, we are just getting this

steady drumbeat of headlines and news reports saying that this bird flu is the real deal. No more boy who cried wolf Wendy. It's only a matter of time before this thing could totally blow up and land us in another global pandemic. What I'm here to tell you is this is a very serious threat to humanity. When we say we are in emergency mode, that is the mode we are in right now. Could potentially lead to another pandemic.

Oh, man. Are they right? That's what we're going to find out after the break. This episode is brought to you by Brooks. So Brooks just released the new Glycerin 22 running shoes. And let me tell you why I think you're going to love them. So I have weird shaped feet. I know lots of people don't love their feet, but seriously...

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Speed up your hiring right now with a $75 sponsored job credit at indeed.com slash science on. That's indeed.com slash science on. Terms and conditions apply. Hiring? Indeed is all you need. Welcome back. Today we're talking about bird flu.

Blythe is about to tell us if this is going to be the next pandemic. Okay, yeah. So I want to start actually by talking about why exactly this bird flu scares the crap out of us so much. And a huge reason is that generally speaking, this type of bird flu, H5N1, can be really deadly for humans.

Like some of the warnings out there say that if we do get a bird flu pandemic, it could kill 100 million people. Why do they think that? Yeah. So there's a couple of reasons. Right. So, you know, if you look at past flu pandemics, like often a lot of people get sick and this flu has a really high fatality rate. So when humans get this kind of bird flu, it tends to kill 50 to 60 percent of the people who get it.

And, you know, with the caveat that there are some people who get bird flu and we don't know about, so maybe that death rate is a little high. But still, I mean, over the past few decades, on and off, about 1,000 people have been diagnosed with this H5N1.

And about half of them have died. Wow. And so how exactly are people dying from bird flu? So when bird flu gets like really bad in a person, they can get this terrible fever. They can't breathe. They might go into respiratory failure. And sometimes their organs will fail too. They can get inflammation in their brain. It can be really bad. So bird flu...

has been going around for a while now, every now and then, killing people over the last 20 years. What's been happening recently? So over the years, there's been all these different types. And I mean, I've been talking about H5N1, sort of this umbrella type. But then several years ago, something changed the game here.

So H5N1 has been making virus babies, let's call them. Each one a little different. These are different clades. Clades is what they're called. And then this one called 2344B popped up. 2344B it's called.

I didn't realize that when they started calling those coronavirus variants Delta and Omicron that they were being all fancy with us. Yeah, I know. I know. We didn't realize most of the time it's these really nerdy number names that are a little bit hard to keep track of. Okay, so but this 2344B, that is what...

people are freaking out about right now. Yeah. And I mean, that's because when it started showing up in wild birds, it was clear that something was really different about this guy. Okay. I talked about this with Seema Lakdawalla, who is a virologist at Emory University. And so Seema came across this because she works with other nerds who monitor bird flu like worldwide. And she remembers first hearing about this virus and

from some other scientists out of the UK. I would say 2021, where like birds were just falling out of the sky dead. Wait, like, wait, they were like literally falling out of the sky dead? Yeah. Yeah, that's their description. We've had more birds fall out of the sky. Like, it is bad. I actually watched a video of this bald eagle with bird flu. Oh.

And it's like flying down to the ground and it stumbles and it can't really land. And it's trying to walk and it's going around in circles and it's just like shaking its head, shaking its head all over the place. It's really sad. And so scientists are seeing all these awful deaths in birds. And of course, what can happen with bird flu is that it moves with the birds who also move.

So it makes its way to other countries, including the U.S. And we start seeing it in wild birds and in chickens. And this is like late 2021, 2022. And so in the U.S., what we do when this happens, when it shows up on like a poultry farm, whatever, we kill those birds. And we are killing millions of birds.

Which is definitely like one thing that can make eggs more expensive, right? You've got fewer birds, you get fewer eggs. Right. So overall as this happens, though, when it first kind of pops up, it's not ringing like huge alarm bells for humans, right? Like it's crappy, but we're kind of used to bird flu and birds. Right. But then this virus starts showing up in like more and more mammals. And scientists always keep an eye on that. Because once a virus starts like jumping species, maybe adapting to these different hosts,

You start to worry that it could get to a point where it is easier for it to move from human to human. Which at this point hasn't really happened. Right. But here is SEMA. Every time a virus, like a bird virus, gets into a mammal, it can then adapt to that mammal, right? Because viruses change. We know this. COVID, right? Omicron, Delta. Like, you know, I'm saying things that people remember. Viruses change when they infect hosts. Uh-huh. Okay.

Okay. So we're finding this new bird flu in all these different animals. But the important thing that happens next in our story is when it shows up in this particular mammal. We've had sporadic spillover events from birds into seals in lots of different places, right? You might remember this? Seal outbreaks. Oh, yeah. And so this is...

2022 we're at? 2022, 23. Okay. Yeah. How did the seals get it? So we don't know for sure, but it could be that seals live along the shorelines, like along the waterline. And you also get a ton of birds who live and hang out in that same space, right? So we're thinking, oh, maybe the birds are crapping on or near the water and the seals are like, maybe they're licking it up. Maybe they're swimming in like bird crap infested waters or whatever.

I thought it was the crab. Those birds crap so much, and so they're crapping out the virus. Yeah. And, well, the thing is that it wasn't just the dead seals that, like, freaked people out here because they were sad about seals. The important thing was that the seals started giving this virus to each other. Oh.

So they think it wasn't just like one seal sucks up some bird crap, another one does, another one does. They think the seals were actually spreading it. And this kind of thing is pretty unusual. You know, bird flu going mammal to mammal. It's not the first time. But scientists start to worry that this could help it mutate to where it could go human to human. Oh, wow.

Okay, so at this point, when we start to see all these dead seals, I asked Seema, like, how she was feeling. And she actually said she was not freaking out. It's not terrifying yet. Okay. She's, okay, not terrifying yet. Yet. Noting the yet. Interesting. It's just a sign...

That, huh, we don't like that, but a seal is not a human. That seems like that's her mindset. Exactly. Also, I mean, humans don't hang around seals all that much, right? So we have a low chance of getting it from them, which kind of leads me to what you might be wondering, which is when does it get terrifying for people like Seema?

The biggest shift in my perspective happened in March and April of 2024. That was when it was first identified in cattle. Cattle? Why? Oh, I'm so sure she was going to say humans. So what? I mean, cows just feel like seals of the land. Why is she worried about cattle? I believe that's actually what farmers call them, is the seals of the land. Oh.

So... Look at those big eyes, you know. Sure. Charismatic megafauna. Yes. The reason... So I asked Seema that question. I asked why the cows matter. Yeah. So I'll tell you two reasons why I think it's really important. The first one is that they're farm animals. They're domestic. Humans have a lot of interaction with these animals. Right.

compared to, say, seals. She's like, cattle? We've got cattle all over this country. We have people giving them medicine, helping them give birth, milking them, feeding them, tending them when they're sick. But there's also other reasons why scientists kind of freak out when the cows get it.

And one of them is that as far as we knew, cows generally like did not get this kind of flu. So this bird flu belongs to this group of flus known as influenza A's, which just like are not much of a thing in cows.

I mean, one virologist actually told me that people in his science community, they would like test cows for influenza A and he would like laugh at them because he was like, it was so dumb to think that a cow could get this kind of flu. Oh, because they were so sure, you know, these cows don't have it. Yeah, exactly. Yeah. And because of this, it was like actually really impressive how scientists figured out that it was bird flu in the first place. So, Wendy, we were lucky to have some very clever nerds on the case. And yeah, and it basically started with some dairy cows in Texas.

that were looking a bit sick. They were eating less. They were like maybe pumping out a little bit less milk. And they actually had mastitis.

In their udders? So this is where, like, the milk from a cow becomes, like, yogurt-y and yellow-y and chunky. And it's typically caused by bacteria. Okay, so these veterinarians, they ran their tests. They did their thing. They were like, okay, is it this? Is it this? It doesn't seem to be any of these infections we thought it was. Right. And they were, like, pretty confused. And so then a veterinarian went on the farm and noticed...

some dead birds and a neurologically sick cat, like a cat with neurological symptoms. Whoa. This is like house. This is like... Yeah. Like, right? It's super... Again... Detective work. Right. Right.

And then, of course, they work out that it's bird flu. And the bird flu was giving the cat neurological symptoms and the cows mastitis. Yeah, right, which is, like, kind of crazy. And what's interesting here is that they didn't just, like, pop a swab up the cow's nose and swirl it around in there. They also tested the milk. Okay.

And what they found was like massive amounts of virus in the milk. And when I talk about massive amounts, like it is scary how much virus is in the milk of a cow. And I'm talking 10 million to 100 million infectious particles in one milliliter, one milliliter of milk. Oh, gosh. Was the virus alive? I mean, are we drinking that?

Virus? The virus that is actually in the milk is alive. Are we drinking it? If you are drinking pasteurized milk, pasteurization does seem to kill the virus. Okay.

From everything I've found. Like, there's already, there's been a lot of research on this where they're like, the pasteurization process seems to make the milk safe. Right. Now, where you might run into problems, Wendy, is if you are drinking raw milk. Yes. Which is, the whole point of it is it's not pasteurized, right? Right. For real, it is, like, not a good idea to be drinking that right now. Like, people are playing with fire because they could be straight up drinking bird flu. Got it. Do not drink raw milk in this moment. Correct. Correct.

If you take nothing else away, Wendy, take that away from this. Take it away. Yeah. And the same goes for unpasteurized cheese, by the way. Oh. Yeah. And we actually do know that eating bird flu virus, like it can get animals sick.

And in fact, it's one way that cats are getting it by drinking raw milk or eating raw pet food. And raw pet food, which can be like stuff like ground up chickens or turkeys, that has made some cats sick and some of them have died. Oh, and eggs. Is it OK to eat eggs right now? Yeah, they say basically as long as you're, you know, cooking up your eggs well.

they think eggs are safe. Uh-huh. Don't be guest-on-ing in this moment. Oh my God. Five dozen eggs. Don't do it. Right. Don't guest-on your way to getting bird flu, please.

The other thing that I would just want to point out is that it's showing up in cows and we're like really not doing all that much to stop it. Like definitely not to the level of what we do with other animals, chickens. We're not killing the cows in the same way we would the chickens? Yeah, exactly. And I mean, it kind of makes sense that we're not killing the cows because like what's reassuring is that a lot of the cows are surviving. It's not like they're getting super, super sick from this bird flu.

So then, okay, so we're seeing all of these animals get it. This was, we're up to last year with the cows. Yeah, so once it gets into cows, it starts spreading among the cows like crazy. Oh, gosh. So it's so far been found in more than a thousand herds of cows in 17 states in the U.S. And I will tell you one more thing, Wendy. Oh, yeah. So this is also one of the most interesting things that I've learned is that

Yeah. So to go back to one of the big concerns here, that we end up in a situation where the virus gets in more and more animals, more and more animals. Now that the cows have it, we think a whole bunch of new animals might also be at risk. Yeah. And that's partly because of this disgusting and kind of fascinating thing called a manure lagoon. Oh, sounds like a 90s band. You wish it were a 90s band, Wendy. And here's Seema. Yeah.

When a cow is sick, like say with H5 or with any bacterial infection, it has to be milked, right? It's inhumane to not milk a lactating cow.

And so it is this like yogurt, chunkety milk, right? The smesitis milk. So it does not make it into our drinking milk. It gets collected separately. And then it is poured into, typically on farms, into what's called a manure lagoon. Oh, no. And this manure lagoon is this large area where there's water. So there's always birds like feeding at it.

The milk is not treated in most cases before it is poured into the manure lagoons. And again, just remind you, like I said, 10 million to 100 million infectious virus particles per small milliliter. This is one of the ways in which we think that peridomestic animals on farms, near farms are getting infected, right? Because it's just in the environment. Oh, no. Don't. Don't put the milk in the manure lagoons. Oh, my gosh. So it's like it's just in the environment. It's just out there.

Okay, so there's all this potential for humans to now get infected, not just from the cow to human interface, but also the cat-human interface and the rodent-human interface and the raccoon-human interface and the opossum. I'm sure those opossums are also getting it. So where...

Are we at now? Yeah. So after the break, we hear what happens when humans get this new type of bird flu. Coming up. ♪

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Offer valid May 15th through June 4th. US only. See store or online for details. Welcome back. Today I'm here with Blythe, our editor at Science Versus.

who's about to tell us what bird flu is currently doing in humans. What's going on? Okay, so we heard about the cows, all the birds, the seals, all these other animals, right? Yes. So after all this cow stuff starts popping off, pretty quickly we start getting reports of bird flu in humans in the U.S. And they're now getting that...

newish version, that H5N1 baby that you were talking about. Yes. So in the U.S., we start seeing cases in people around March 2024. That's when we get the first known case of someone getting it from a cow. And actually, scientists think that not only is this the first time that they know about that bird flu has gone cow to human, but it's the first time that they've

They actually think that this is the first time they know about that any mammal has given bird flu to any human. Oh, because we normally get it through the birds. Right. Right. Yeah. We normally get it directly from a bird. Okay. And some people in the U.S. do start getting it from birds, too. So overall, in the past couple of years, we've seen about 70 known cases of this bird flu in the U.S., of this H5N1 baby. Uh-huh. 70...

And so what's happening now when people get it? Are they getting really sick? Yeah, so actually this is what's pretty surprising. So despite all the scary headlines every time someone gets bird flu, generally speaking, people who have gotten this in the U.S. are not getting that sick. Oh. We are mostly seeing people who have flu-y symptoms, your typical stuff, fatigue, respiratory issues.

We do see this one weird symptom that I want to talk about for a sec, cropping up a lot, because a lot of people are getting conjunctivitis or pink eye. Actually, one study looked at this, the people who'd gotten it, and found that 93% of them had gotten pink eye, which is like...

Not typical for flu? No. That is... That is strange. Yeah. But overall, like, a lot of people are getting these sort of, like, milder symptoms. Good news. Great news there. But then there are some serious cases where things played out really differently. And I want to talk about a couple of those. Okay. So there's one...

In Canada. Canada's first human case of bird flu has everyone talking. Canadian teenager with the virus has been actually hospitalized in critical condition. Had to be on life-saving machines, super scary, ends up surviving. And then there's a person in Louisiana.

who, same thing, gets really sick and ends up in the hospital. And that person ends up dying. For the first time, bird flu has claimed a human life in the U.S. The first person to die of bird flu, it's alarming. That's right, because this feels like it was a threshold, an alarm bell sounding.

And when the scientists genetically tested the virus that's in these two people, they're like, oh no, this is a slightly different type of bird flu. Because H5N1's baby, she's got babies of her own. And this particular baby, it seems to be making people sicker and it is spreading in birds more.

And now also in the cows. Oh, no. Yeah, and we've since seen a few more cases of it in the U.S., a couple more people hospitalized. In addition to this, you know, we are seeing bird flu cases and deaths in other countries, too, in H5N1. It's showing up in Cambodia. It's killed several people there, including children. We just had a child die in India, a child in Mexico.

And we don't always know exactly which of these types of H5N1 it is, which version, if it's this creepier one, if it's something else. In some cases, though, it does seem likely that it is. So these cases, they're kind of trickling out. But the question obviously becomes, have we had a case where the virus has gone human to human? Yeah.

That is 100% the question, right? Because if that starts happening, Wendy, like that's when we're like, we've got an outbreak. Yes. And we start freaking out about a pandemic, right? Exactly. Then we're like the seals, you know. Yeah, exactly. So is that happening? Here's what Seema told me about what's been going on in the U.S. There has been no documented human-to-human transmission. Does that mean it hasn't happened? No.

So basically there are a few cases of people who've gotten bird flu and we just don't know how. Like they're not agriculture workers. Right, okay. And we don't know if those people got it through wild birds, through another person. That's so difficult to know. When you look at the genetics of the bird,

Does it give us any clues about where this might go? The big thing scientists are watching is exactly that, Wendy. Like, it's exactly the genetics of the virus. Like, they're watching how this thing mutates. Because what they want to see is if it ends up mutating in a way that makes it way easier to spread from one person to another. Mm-hmm, yes. And one of the scientists who is watching this is a guy named Richard Webby. He's a virologist at St. Jude Children's Research Hospital in Tennessee.

I did come across an article that called you the flu catcher. What do you think about that nickname? Yeah, I'm not sure. I must admit, I don't do much catching a flu myself anymore. What's he do? What's he doing on our bird flu episode then? He was mostly like, my kids aren't in daycare anymore. Oh, okay.

So Richard tells me that flu viruses, including bird flu viruses, are generally really good at mutating. And that's partly because when they get inside an animal or a person and start making copies of themselves, they tend to make a whole bunch of little mistakes. And then in some cases, those mistakes are very helpful and like help them adapt. Right. So they can then infect animals.

Seals and cows and other animals. Yeah, exactly. And so I asked Richard, at this point, how likely do you think it is that this H5 virus will start moving from human to human? Yeah. I know you're shaking your head. Yeah, you can see it. You love this question, I can tell. I love it. I love it a lot, right? What is the risk? So I'll tell you why I find that difficult to answer. Yeah.

If we look today, so right now today, even let's look at the virus that's in cows, even the viruses that we get from people that have been infected, they still have all the characteristics of bird viruses. They want to be infecting birds.

Yeah, like they look like the virus that you're pulling out of a goose or a chicken or a turkey or whatever. I mean, they haven't like really adapted to be good at infecting humans. Got it. Generally. Which is good news, except... The problem is this virus could be two, three, maybe even one mutation away from changing that.

Yes. So scientists don't think it'll take that much mutating at all to get to a version that could have the capacity to spread more easily. And actually, there was like a big paper that was looking at this in the lab and actually identified one mutation. They were like, oh, if you flip this switch... That's all it takes. That's a version that'll probably be easier to get into people. Uh-huh.

And we do know that this bird flu can get certain mutations like this out in the wild. Because, you know, those two patients, Wendy, who got really sick and one of them died? Yeah, yeah. They were sick for so long that scientists think the virus did mutate inside their bodies. And when they looked at the virus's genetics, like some of the virus in those people did have a mutation.

Wow. Which is interesting because it didn't in those cases. Yes, right. Which brings me to perhaps like a kind of surprisingly optimistic point. Some good news, if you'll have it. I'll take it. I'll take some good news. So like we've seen it mutate. It's gotten into a fair number of people. Yeah.

It hasn't yet broken out as far as we can tell in any meaningful way. And Richard told me that like scientists are like really debating what that means. So some people look at that, you know, even some experts look at that and say H5 can never become a human pathogen. Really? They say never can? Yeah.

That's right. That's just not able to do it, right? They say it would have happened by now if it could. Right. Huh. That's right. It could. I mean, the argument against that, I'm not on that boat. I think the virus probably can, but the barrier to it making those key changes is relatively high. Yeah, that's interesting. And that's not really a gamble we want to make. Right. Yeah. And there's this other thing that could happen that could screw us on this.

It is called reassortment, and it's where different types of flus are kind of able to mix together. So the deal with that is like, say I get infected with the regular human flu and I'm a poultry worker and I go in to work and I get exposed to bird flu. And like both of these flus managed to get inside my body at the same time.

What can happen is that they can kind of mix and match inside of me. And that is reassortment. And that's actually like that process has triggered, one scientist told me, basically all the major flu pandemics in modern history. Oh, where a human flu or a human adapted flu...

basically has virus sex with an animal flu. And then, because that's a, yeah, from a virus's perspective, that's a much more efficient way to just get all of these adaptive features that like, beep, beep, beep, beep, I'll take this. And now we can infect humans much easier than having to completely develop all these. Rinky dink, mutation by mutation by mutation by mutation. Yes.

So that's another thing that they're really watching for. Oh, okay. So that good news was short-lived. I know.

It always is, isn't it? On Science Versus. I mean, an overall big picture, like when we talk about these viruses and how this flu is mutating and what could happen, where it could go, how it could mix with other viruses. What scientists told me is that it's a numbers game. You know, the more chances you give it, the more you give it chances to have virus sex, the more likely it is that it'll mutate.

into something that I can give to you and that you can pass along. Yeah. Here is how Seema is thinking about it at this moment. What we're allowing this virus to do is take a thousand shots on goal every day, maybe 10,000 shots on goal. When would you worry? I'm already worried. Sorry, if that's not coming across, let me make it very clear. I am worried. Given all of this, right, I asked Richard,

Let's see, where's Dr. Richard Webby's worry meter? So somewhere between sitting back with my feet up on the recliner and, as I tell people, running, you know, heading towards the hills. I'm in the middle. I think I'm square in the middle a little bit. Is that like buying a few extra masks? Is that toilet paper? I think that'll be the key. If my neighbors see me arriving back from Sam's Club with four or five extra packets of toilet paper, then they will know I've changed.

You mentioned buying a few extra masks. Would that help? Yeah. For humans, generally tends to be a respiratory virus. Like, that's what we see. So I do think masks would help. Right. And this is still a flu. It's still a flu. That's right. It's still a flu. I mean, Wendy, I did buy masks last week. Oh, okay. But extra toilet paper? Did you do that yet? No, still taking my chances on that one. So do we have anything to fight against bird flu? Are there vaccines?

Yeah, there are vaccines. You can't just go get one at the pharmacy. They're not like available, but they do exist. Right. But as far as how they would do if bird flu really took off? The good answer is we don't know really, right? Because we've never had a pandemic in humans. Yeah, we've never had a pandemic to know how good they are in humans, which is a good thing. And we have stuff like antivirals that can help too.

It's funny because I have to go get my flu vaccine now because it's an early human flu season in Australia. But it did make me think that is this something that you can do? Yeah, I mean, look, it's not going to do anything specifically for bird flu. They're just different enough. But you should do it. You should do it. I mean, a lot of scientists reminded me that the regular flu, Wendy, I mean, it kills thousands of people every year. Like that's still going on.

And getting the flu vaccine does reduce the chance that, I mean, if you happen to be very unlucky, right, and also get bird flu, get that reassortment thing that we're talking about, that you, Wendy, you know, will be patient zero of the bird flu pandemic. Right.

And actually, one of the things that Health and Human Services Department here in the U.S. told me is that they are actually giving agricultural workers access to the seasonal flu vaccine as kind of part of their strategy here. Uh-huh. And so then just finally, what is the U.S. government saying about all this? So, I mean, yeah, overall, like, bird flu does not really seem to be a big focus right now. You know, at the USDA, they are looking at ways to stop it in chickens.

But like I mentioned at the start of the show, you know, the Trump administration is also like firing tons of people, including people whose job it was to work on diseases like this. Right. Yeah. And I mean, you know, the thing I'm actually kind of freaked out about here, Wendy, is like whether we're really going to be able to track this thing properly. Oh.

You know, given everything that's going on, like how soon would we really know if it's starting to gain steam and spread in people? And one reason this has been on my mind so much is, so when I first started working on this episode, you know, watching all this last year into this year,

Human cases were kind of ticking up kind of a few at a time here and there. There's reports, there's news reports, data's coming in. And it was early this year, like around February, when we hit that 70 cases or so that I mentioned, right? Yeah, yeah, yeah. And so where we are now, it's May, more than two months later, and we're still like supposedly at 70 cases. And that just makes me a little suspicious, right? Because the flu is still showing up in...

Cows, it's still showing up in new herds of cattle, right? There have been almost 50 new cattle herds infected in just the past month. We're getting data on the cows. It's still clearly spreading. Yeah, so are we really not getting more cases in people? It's just so hard to know if we can trust that. That is scary.

Yeah, and there is one more thing, you know, that I guess gets my spidey sense on this tingling. So there was this CDC report out a couple months ago, like before all these firings really got going, where what they had done is they had tested a bunch of veterinarians who work on large animals, right? Uh-huh. And they found that three of them had...

antibodies for this bird flu for H5N1. Yeah, but they hadn't really been sick. And in some cases, these vets hadn't even known they were working with infected animals in the first place. So what this tells me, right, is that there have been at least some silent cases of this flu already.

floating around. Oh, gosh. What does this tell us? What does it tell us? Because it means they didn't even know they were sick. So asymptomatic infection is a thing that also could suggest maybe this type of bird flu, if it goes pandemic on us, it's not going to be that deadly. And, you know,

so that we don't have our scare hats on. We do know that from history, viruses tend to become less deadly as they go pandemic because it allows them to spread. But it also could be that this bird flu isn't that deadly for everyone, but it still has a high case fatality rate. This is just where we're at. It's just like this tip of who knows what. And in the meantime, we can't trust that we're

getting proper information about what's actually going on. That's, yeah, that's my feeling in this moment. And I guess I will say, like, not to... Not to put your scare hat on. Not to put my scare hat on. I will say, you know, I will say, like, not to... I don't want to be alarmist about it, right? Because I will also say that, like, I asked a bunch of scientists this question because I've had this question. I'm like, if there is... If this thing really starts to spread...

Will we know? And all of them were like, yeah, dude. Like, if this really gets going, like, and we're seeing a lot of cases, they're like, we'll know. You know, like, reports are going to come out other ways. There's going to be, you know, you're going to start hearing from doctors. Yeah. Okay, so then, you know, we mentioned the boy who cried wolf at the start of the show. So, is it, are we crying wolf?

Well, now you have me worried, Wendy. We all know what happened to that guy. He was murdered by wolves. Yeah, I forget the ending of that. It's funny that, isn't it? So stop trying to trap me into... Watch this space. Blythe will be there on the top of the hill looking for the wolves. Yeah, I've got my binoculars. I'm going to do my best to keep watch for the wolves. All right. In the meantime, watch out if you get pink eye. That's right.

Thanks, Blythe. How many citations are in this week's episode? So in this week's episode, we have 123 citations, Wendy. Ooh.

I know. All right. And if people want to read more about bird flu, where should they go? They should go to our transcript, which they can find in the show notes of this episode. And they can find all of our sourcing, including, by the way, some citations that I'm sure will explain that a virus is not necessarily technically alive.

It's complicated, we know. Yes, yes. Also, next week, you know, we did allude to the fact that there have been cuts to science funding, which we have talked about on the show before, but next week we're going to do an update on what exactly is going on with U.S. science right now. Yeah. There's been a lot. There's

There's been a lot happening. A lot happening. And also, like, to point out, too, you know, we talk about layoffs. We talk about some people losing their jobs. There have been stories about the government trying to rehire some of those people, some of the people working on bird flu. It's just been really confusing what's actually going on with that. And I just want to note, too, that I did reach out to Health and Human Services and talk to them about a little bit of this. I did try to ask them about this whole idea that...

we might be missing cases of bird flu. And I just, I didn't hear back on that. All right. Thanks, Blythe. Thank you, Wendy. Thanks for letting me bird flu with you. Thanks for bird fluing with me. Anytime.

This episode was produced by Blythe Terrell with help from me, Wendy Zuckerman, Michelle Dang, Rose Rimler, Meryl Horne and Akedi Foster-Keys. We're edited by Blythe Terrell, mix and sound design by Bobby Lord and Sam Baer, fact-checking by Erica Akiko Howard, music written by Bumi Hidaka, Peter Leonard, Emma Munger, So Wiley and Bobby Lord. Thanks so much to all of the researchers that we spoke to for this episode, including Dr Louise Moncler, Dr Ted Alsasser, Dr John Corsland,

Victoria Rosado and Lindsay Adams. A special thanks to Jeff Del Vecchio. Science Versus is a Spotify Studios original. Listen to us for free on Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. We are everywhere.

Whatever you listen to us on, give us a five-star review because it helps people find the show. And if you are listening on Spotify, follow us and tap the bell icon so you get notifications when new episodes come out. And if you would like to get in touch with us, we are on Instagram, science underscore VS. I'm on TikTok, at Wendy Zuckerman. So come and say hello. I'm Wendy Zuckerman. Back to you next time. ♪