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cover of episode Is the Coast Clear for a New BTC ATH? | OSF and Mando | REKT Vision

Is the Coast Clear for a New BTC ATH? | OSF and Mando | REKT Vision

2025/6/27
logo of podcast Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Real Vision: Finance & Investing

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OSF: 我在比特币下跌时买入了一些低杠杆多单,并在价格上涨时获利了结。我认为比特币的表现优于其他代币,而其他市场并未完全跟随比特币或股票的上涨趋势。尽管如此,我仍然坚持持有表现不佳的加密货币,特别是比特币,因为我认为加密货币是下一个爆发点。我相信竞争币季节会到来,你需要做好准备,因为当它发生时,它会迅速爆发。 Mando: 加密货币市场在周末对市场崩溃的疯狂情景进行了过度猜测,但周一开盘后,市场很快意识到自己反应过度了。宏观背景看起来不错,但市场仍然停滞不前,突破需要一些催化剂。我认为市场要么会经历一段震荡期,要么会迎来一个风险偏好上升的夏季。我仍然认为竞争币可能会进一步下跌,但我也相信一旦活动增加,费用大幅上涨,人们可能会意识到这些资产应该更高。

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This chapter analyzes Bitcoin's price fluctuations, from a significant drop to a rapid recovery. The discussion includes the impact of geopolitical events and the anticipation of Federal Reserve rate cuts.
  • Bitcoin's price dropped around 10% from all-time highs but quickly rebounded.
  • The rebound was attributed to various factors, including a decrease in oil prices, and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts.
  • The market is currently in a range-bound state, and the speakers discuss whether this will lead to a 'lovely summer of chop' or a 'lovely summer of risk' for altcoins.

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Hello, everyone. We're back again. It was like a bit of a week we had, wasn't it? Quite wild what happened in financial markets over the last week. We did say that we thought even if something happened, it would be a bit of a rebound. It was a little bit spicy at some moments, I feel like, over that weekend period. But then we were back up and everyone talking about all-time high again by the end of this week.

How was your week, OSF? Did you do any trades or did you just fall asleep over the weekend and wake up to the Monday, Tuesday rally? No, I did. I longed some Bitcoin, actually, on Friday or Saturday when shit really fell out of the bed. I think it was Saturday, right? Yeah, or maybe even Sunday. I think I started... I think I started...

buying Bitcoin at around 103k and I averaged down I wasn't buying spot I was just putting on like some small like low leverage longs and then I averaged all the way down to about 100k I didn't quite catch the 99 or 98k and yeah I just took profits when we reached 105 and a half obviously could have held on a bit longer but it was just really my degen lever trading more than my main bags but

I think everything kind of played out. We had a lot of people ask questions about it last Friday and they ended up being fair questions because, you know, an invasion, et cetera, did happen and things did escalate. But I think we had the right response to it, which was, you know, the most we expect Bitcoin to back up was like five, maybe 10%. I think we dropped what, like, yeah, around 10% from the all-time highs, but maybe only like five or 6% from where we were on Friday. And, yeah,

If you bought that dip, you would have made decent money. So I think it kind of all played out as we had expected. The notable thing really is a continued rise in Bitcoin dominance or continued outperformance of Bitcoin versus altcoins. You know, like last week or this week, we had Bitcoin rebound. We didn't really quite see it in other tokens, did we? I know like Fartcoin was up meaningfully off the lows, but, you know, it's also off the highs quite a bit. It seems like the other...

The rest of the market isn't quite following what we're seeing in Bitcoin or indeed even in equities, which are up big this week as well. Yeah. Yeah, I think that's fair. Bitcoin dominance went up throughout this whole period, even on the rebound. I think ETH may have outperformed Bitcoin on the week. So what that really showed is that altcoins away from those two

got pretty badly hurt. Or at least if BTC... Maybe it's down slightly. But I think you're right in that it was only really those two that saw a decent

decent recovery to kind of where they were. I think both of those are kind of where we were doing the show last week, right? Bitcoin was around 106K and ETH was just shy of 2,500, I think, around that level. So they're the same. But yeah, a lot of other things kind of fell out of bed. I didn't think that you were going to see the attack over the weekend because it felt as though there was like some room of negotiation for

or at least some olive branches of, "Right, let's get to a negotiating table." But then there was lots of rumors about P52s in the air on Saturday. And then by Sunday, it was all happening. But it was just an obvious dip buy, really, that one. I think the issue often with crypto is that because other markets aren't open on a weekend, people fantasize almost about these crazy scenarios of markets imploding. And then when Monday opened,

Oil was lower, stocks were higher, and crypto quickly realized it massively overreacted to what was going to happen. And Bitcoin just kept going higher after that. It's gone back up to like 108K, I think it was yesterday, and it's drifted down lower now. So it kind of just back in this chop range that we've been in for a long time now.

I don't really know here. Obviously, that for me is quite a big overhang gone now, particularly for inflation. So obviously, oil prices don't look like they're going to go rocketing high anytime soon again now. Particularly if this ends up in a wider peace deal. And

Now the focus really is just on when the Fed's going to cut. And this week as well, we've got more indications that that could be September. And there are some wild prediction teams from Morgan Stanley that they're predicting over five rate cuts next year. The backdrop then for macro feels pretty good, but I also just, we're stuck in this range. Sometimes it takes a lot to break out of a range. You know what I mean? Like,

Whenever I've seen this break out of a range, it's because either everyone's been liquidated on the way down, which is kind of what we just saw now. I felt like there was a moment where it could push on to like 110k and keep on going and be like, oh, that would be really painful if everyone got liquidated. But now it's just kind of stopped short and it's back kind of in the middle or close to the middle of the range it's been in. Are we in for a lovely summer of chop? Or do you think we're going to be in for a lovely summer of risk?

Yeah, it's a good question. I think it seems like it's taking a lot to rake us through this Bitcoin all-time high and into price discovery. It's not the first time. I feel like in recent memory, especially around this time as well of the year, it's not the first time we've seen that. I remember back in 2023, after the BlackRock ETF headlines, Bitcoin was

barely even break past the 30k level. It was very tough to get past that level. For a lot of last year, despite all the Trump stuff, it was very tough for Bitcoin to get above that, whatever it was, like 75, 80k-ish level. And then eventually you break through. And I think we're just seeing a bit more of that now. There's something to consider is when you do have a big backup, like we saw in April,

I can imagine some people bought a ton of Bitcoin and they're now probably, you know, slowly peacing out of it. So you do need to wait for that risk to consolidate and clear before we can resume higher. You either need that risk to consolidate and clear or you need like

new capital coming in. One thing I would say is the ETF demand has been relatively high over the last few weeks. So that's something that's definitely supporting the bids on both Bitcoin and ETH. I still don't know. I haven't looked at funding rates in a while, so I'm not sure if I'm supposed to read that as net buys or... I think stuff like Athena keeps funding rates in check now these days. So I think it's probably actual real capital coming in.

So yeah, the question is, what will it take for us to go through? A couple of things that I think are interesting is the crypto review that David Sachs and his committee is doing. We've been more than six months into that now. So I think there could be some interesting developments that come out of that. I even missed this headline, actually, that he said that July would be a big month for US crypto law. He said July would be a big month. Yeah, he said it yesterday. Yeah, I missed that, actually. Yeah, the main thing he's talking about is the stablecoin bill that will...

hopefully pass through the Senate. And then there's some wider tokenization bills that he's saying that we might have more clarity on. So it's definitely a good sign. I don't know if that takes us through all time highs. I think the thing that might push it is staking ETFs or more ETFs being approved. But yeah, it's... It's blinding.

Still the Bitcoin reserve stuff. If the US does say they're going to go out and buy Bitcoin, people have seemed to have forgotten about that as a potential development. That's something I think that could send us a lot higher. And obviously some states are already doing it. Yeah, it's happening on the state level. Texas came out and said they're going to buy some. I think there's only small, but it's been an interesting one to look at. I doubt they'll buy

I do think that they'll mine it. I'd be very unsurprised if they decide to get involved in mining. Yeah, this is the thing. For us, whenever we've broken out, it's because of something. Something has shifted. Whenever it's just progressive, week-by-week good headlines, often you can be in a shot and just be like, why haven't we broken out? And it's that one thing that just goes like, right, bam, we're up.

And I'm starting to... I don't know if that'll be September. Maybe it's the rate cuts that cause that. Or we get something in the next month or two that is around there. The only big headline I see is the Stablecoin Act and ETFs. And maybe stablecoins is enough to push. They feel like both of those are better for altcoins than they are for Bitcoin, though. Yeah. Yeah.

Probably right. Maybe even particularly for ETH as well. Yeah, probably for ETH, probably for Solana as well with the staking aspect. There's still 50-50 odds that you get a Solana ETF by the end of July on Polymarket, which I think is fairly interesting. The market's still predicting that they're going to get something. I think the main thing that we saw this week was the extension of this

stock market falling in love with crypto again. And it's extended past Circle, really. And now to some of the exchanges and trading locations. Yeah. So you had Robinhood and Coinbase both moving aggressively higher. Coinbase is set an all-time high, which is up 20% on the week, which I think a lot of people consider Coinbase as a major. You know, it's like it's the alternative that people have owned for...

crypto exposure in their accounts and you see that move higher in in a time where it definitely has taken a bit of the shine off the rest of the crypto market like i think people are paying it slightly less attention to to altcoins in particular here um there were some headlines this week that coinbase is going to get into perps in the us at the end of july

and they're going to increase some of their Bitcoin treasury. But this felt more like the market repricing crypto exposure as an asset class. Do you think that's what people should be focusing a little bit here? More than with altcoins? We've said it a few times that that's where some of the opportunities are. But to see Coinbase, Robinhood, obviously before that we'd had Circle, and we're starting to see some of the

The treasury companies even moved recently. Do you think people should be focusing more on the stocks at the moment than on crypto? Yeah, I think it's a good question. It's just, it feels like another point of frustration for people in crypto, in altcoins, hoping for an alt season, and then watching some of these stocks, which, you know, have a much more capped downside, let's put it that way.

just perform crazy numbers like the sharp ratio on some of these stocks versus altcoins in the last two or three years must be crazy. But my feeling is that rather than selling alts to chase that stuff, I feel like that move for me has been missed by me. I don't own any of those stocks. I feel like I want to stay, stick with the underperformers and I,

even if that's just Bitcoin, because Bitcoin itself has underperformed a lot of these stocks, right? I just feel like crypto is next. That's what it feels like to me more. It feels like we've had this move in stocks, we've had this move in crypto stocks. The market is very risk-on right now. Bitcoin kind of got a little bit closer to all-time high, then back down. Then we had a big bit of a rally this week, then back down. It just feels like to me crypto is next to move. And we had many moments last year and the year before

when stocks were outperforming crypto and people were getting very fed up with crypto and what ended up happening was, you know, after a few weeks or months, whatever it was, you then had that moving crypto and then it was just like a very aggressive moving crypto because obviously stuff in this space can move, you know, 10x plus, 100x in some cases and you don't get that moving equity. So, um,

you know, there's an argument to say, okay, maybe you should withdraw money for crypto, put it into stocks and then wait for the right moment to come to crypto. But it's hard, you know, if you don't already have the position on, it becomes very hard to buy it because those moves happen. One day it will just happen. One day Bitcoin will have a fucking like 10% candle or something. And then you're just going to be like, shit, what do I do? Do I buy it here? Do I wait for a dip? And if you don't, if you already have the position on, that's much easier to

figure out what to do and generally you'll probably just be holding at that stage. So that's my view. I think we're meant to like, you know, stick it out here with crypto. I still think the best is yet to come for this year and it's just going to be a game of patience here. That's my, that's my gut. Cause it's not just crypto either though, right? It's felt as though some of the small caps or medium caps in like robotics, space exploration, you know,

and AI have really moved as well in the last week or so. Let's say the long tail of the NASDAQ is like ripping at the moment. That's the other thing that's suddenly becoming, I think, tough to ignore. I know Arouse is doing Rocket Labs, which is just absolutely soaring at the moment, but there's a few others in various of these sub-sectors of the NASDAQ.

that just continuing to push higher and i do wonder if those stories will just continue to outperform alt coins here like i i guess i'm trying to focus on is is this idea of an alt coin season or not again which is kind of what kind of come back to a few different times and it's whether it's competing with what everything else rallying or what with what you're saying that you know

That altcoins will catch up as the bottom of the pyramid and as liquidity flows in, this sort of stuff will continue higher. I'm not so sure. I feel as though the eyes on crypto right now are low, at least on altcoins are low. The eyes on other subsets like crypto stocks is high and on other stocks seems to be very, very high. And on Bitcoin, it just feels like it's just hanging out.

I've been surprised that Ethan Solana continued to not trade well. Like, if everyone's so bullish on stablecoins and even bullish on ETFs and on...

Yeah, just the narrative around crypto again. I do think that we have to logically think that the L1s is where some of this stuff will start to really see massive gains. And we just haven't yet. What about Tron? Isn't most of the stablecoin activity on Tron, I guess, for USDT more than... Yeah. And also Tron is now... Justin Sun has sort of been let go by the US and Tron is planning to go public or something. Yeah, Tron is like a stablecoin. It's such a weird coin.

It has one of the highest revenues out of any chain in crypto, obviously because of stablecoin transfers on it. A large bit of this is in sanctioned countries or... I mean, it's true, right? Like, Tron is huge in Russia at the moment and huge in Iran, for example, like when that Iranian exchange was hacked. I think it was earlier this week. Like, it was withdrawn to Tron and then burnt. I...

Yeah, but the coin doesn't really go up that much. It has surprised me that Tron, I agree with you, that that would be one of the top ones I would say would gain from all of this going on. But I would also have said Ethan Solano would be up there too.

which kind of scares me. It kind of scares me. It still feels like Bitcoin leads everything rather than it's impossible to have a bullish narrative around crypto, which isn't just Bitcoin going higher. Like that's just the top one. If Bitcoin isn't going higher, it's tough to be bullish on L1s, it seems. Yeah. Unless it's the sort of thing where once the activity, because presumably once certain regulations are passed, the activity changes.

5xs, 10xs, whatever it is. And maybe Circle is starting to price that in. But maybe the L1s aren't because those fees aren't yet printing. But you would imagine there's a massive... As activity increases, there's a massive surge in fees. And maybe people need to just see those numbers to then realize, oh shit, this stuff should be high. I would say that. Sometimes you do need that to prove...

prove product market fit after something happens. I wanted to touch again just slightly on Coinbase because one of the big stories this week was that they are going to launch Herps in the US. And there's been a range of takes on that. The main one, I think, has been just been affecting hyperliquid, which has been one of the best performers of this cycle. It's kind of universally liked as an app. And the coin FDV of around $1.

I think a high of $44 billion right now. It's sitting around $36. People have had a mix of range of reactions here about how it's going to affect hyperliquid. In the past, we've seen Coinbase release features to much fanfare, like the NFT platform, and never really worked out. This feels maybe a bit more substantive than that. We'll start with that one there. Do you think that...

Coinbase is about to threaten Hyperliquid. And do you think that was also probably the reason for the big rally in Coinbase? It's definitely one of the reasons why Coinbase valued, I think. Because, you know, the PERP offering is a very popular product. Can it threaten Hyperliquid? Yes and no. I think there's a good chance it can because, you know,

You could have a big retail onboarding mechanism, very easy to transfer right into your bank account. They have a 12% interest offering right now on USDC balances. So you can literally go long Bitcoin, levered long Bitcoin with your USDC balances, collateral and earn 12% while you do that. I think that's a pretty interesting trade. So there's a lot going for it that I think will draw users in. Hyperliquid to me feels like

It's more of a protest trade against, you know, against centralized exchanges and obviously, you know, lower KYC requirements, all that kind of stuff is the reason why many whales are on it and will be on it. So I don't know if like, I don't necessarily think Coinbase is going to kill hyperliquid or steal activity from hyperliquid, but that doesn't necessitate it won't be successful.

and that Coinbase stock would go up. So I think the two things can coexist is what I'm saying. And I think it's more likely that anyone who is trading on centralized exchanges in the US through VPNs and Bybit and that kind of stuff probably now get like a legit account on Coinbase, but they can actually have, you know, they can be doxed and transferred to the bank accounts and stuff. And that's probably what's going to happen, I think. I don't think it's going to take too much away from Hyperliquid. That's my guess.

I agree with you. But I do think that the headline itself and the fact that it's happening at the end of July, I think we could have a bit of a world war here. It feels kind of like Pump Fun releasing a coin for Solana and its effect on Solana meme coins. The correlation perhaps isn't... When we actually see what actually happens, I don't think it will really affect it that much. But it does feel as though in the interim, people might go back and forth and...

you know, call for the end of hyperliquid and all this sort of moves. And that's how we've seen how it's affected. The narrative is more important sometimes than like the result. So I have a bag of hyperliquid again. It was one of the things I bought pretty aggressively in that dip. I said, you know, I've laid it from 30 to 35 and I do wonder if it's going to have a bit of a week's July here. I'm going to keep it positioned, but it's definitely on my radar or something that, Oh yeah, you know, this,

This could turn against me, but I'll be plying if it goes any sort of materially lower. Do you have target levels to add more? Where is it now? It's down to what, like 30 or something? No, no. It's about 36. It hit 32-ish on that sell-off, and I had laddered it from...

from 35 down to 30. So not everything hit, but I got some good prints on that. That was like the main thing I bought on the dip. And it rallied all the way back up to basically 39, 40. But now with this headline, it's going to dip lower again. And yeah, I'm just kind of humming and aahing about it. There's definitely one that I really liked, but I can imagine could have a bit of a difficult July now, just on that narrative alone. But then again, it becomes difficult for me to go...

The other altcoins that people have been talking about are some of these DeFi coins coming back. So there's Aave. A lot of people have been talking about Syrup, which is the coin from the Maple Finance guys. I bought a little bit of that as well. I...

I like Eeth. I like Eeth here. But I don't love a lot of other altcoins. I just find, I think that some of the stories are just really difficult. Hyperliquid was like, okay, this is a story you can really get behind. And I like Arve and I like Syrup, I think. But

I don't know if I want to get involved in any other altcoins apart from those. Have you bought any altcoins or have you just bought Bitcoin despite saying you think we're going to get an alt season? You know, I've been really tempted to dip my toe in altcoins in the last day or two. Honestly, I haven't really done much trading. I don't have much time to do much trading. And when I don't have a lot of time to devote to it,

I just try not to do it because I end up losing money. I think in this type of market, you really have to be switched on here. That being said, it is tempting just to buy a bag of altcoins and just kind of forget about it and be like, hey, this is my BGM play for the alt season. But I kind of already have that anyway. So I don't know. It's tempting to add stuff here because I think there are many altcoins which are still at or just above April lows. They don't look good.

I'll tell you that. They don't look very good. The others chart is generally what people use to describe altcoins. I think it's all the coins outside the top 10. It's not at the lows, but it's a chart. It doesn't look like it's... It's not a healthy looking chart if you kind of zoom out. This thing... When this is in a block where Bitcoin is literally...

2% or 3% or maybe 4% or 5% from all time high, it does surprise you that this still trades where it does.

I'm still at the view that it can go lower, man. I'm still at the view that it can go lower. This is where I think we are debating the most. It can definitely go lower. You just said, which is that you bought Bitcoin on the dip. You bought Bitcoin. You've been coming on this show for weeks. I love you, Tom O'Reilly. Old coin season coming and you bought Bitcoin. I think, I'm not saying it can't go lower.

What I am saying is I think there are two different things. If I'm going to scalp something over the course of two or three days, then I'm going to go for Bitcoin, right? Because I know it will actually move higher on the bounce. And you definitely obviously can't say that for many altcoins. But my point on the alt season is that I just think you want to have some exposure to it because when it does happen, it's just going to snap so aggressively that you won't have time to get in. And you don't want to be...

faffing around and days when shit's moving up 100 200 300 etc so um i still am a believer in alt season and i just think you have to have like you know every time we've gone through portfolio constructions in the show generally sort of be like okay like you know 40% eth 40% bitcoin sort of thing um but i do think you want to have like that 10 or 20 allocation to the stuff because

If it does happen, you need to be positioned because it's just going to happen like quick. I think it's, you know, this is different to ETH where ETH was like, okay, I hate ETH, but you know, I'm going to be ready to buy when the time is right. And you had time to sort of get in. You still have time to get in because I think the wind is changing, but it's still at a low level. I just feel like you're not going to get that same moment in alts because I think people will just FOMO so aggressively and it'll just be this like great big off top type thing. And then, you know,

last for a couple of weeks maybe and then back down it's going to be very hard to trade it if you're not positioned for it i think um at least that's how i kind of guess in may in sorry in 2021 it was it lasted longer than a couple of weeks but it was it was it was also moving from coins to coins right it was very hard to so i remember when we started trading crypto and we were just in and out of all these altcoins right and every time i bought something it was up like already up 500 and then i bought it and it was down

50% and then the other thing was up 500%. It was very rotational and you just don't want to be caught playing that game. So I think for me, I just want to have a collection of things that I know will do well if we get it and then you probably want to sell into that, I think, when it happens. I think that move can be very big and very vicious. What do you think of the idea that we may have just put in a lower low, lower high on Bitcoin? Over what time frame?

I think if you look at the channel from like the middle of May, we've been hitting successive lower highs, lower lows. Because we didn't just hit like 110k. It looks a little bit precarious to me. Yeah, it does. I think it looks like a chop. That looks like a chop for me again. That looks like a chop. I'm not, again, like I'm not a big believer in...

charts and stuff and i think with higher highs lower lows etc it depends on what time frame you look at it on i don't know if like you know yes if you look at over a one month time frame does that mean we have another one month of chop potentially but i try not to pay too much attention to that kind of stuff because i feel like every time i have done it just doesn't really work or something else happens but we are we are also drifting slightly away from the

the correlation to the 12-month lag. This is definitely the period where we should have seen us pushing on higher, so a 12-week lag of global liquidity. And it doesn't feel like that's going to happen. Do you think we're going to have a period here of de-correlation for a little bit? I know Raoul always says it's 90% of the correlation over the last few years has been global liquidity, but that doesn't mean that you can't drift away from that correlation for a while. I think...

I think I saw Julian tweet about it. And I think the point he was making was that it's not going to track it one for one or tick by tick. But the important thing to look at is the trend. And I agree with that. You know, like you can't, you can't look at this stuff tick by tick, right? It's not going to, every single peak is not going to match every single peak and every single trough is not going to match every single trough.

But the overall trend generally will match. And if you look at this chart here now that's up on screen. You've got to bring up the chart, actually, because I think what people miss about this is the y-axis, right? It's like a small move is pretty big on this chart. Yeah. Yeah.

Like that dip we just saw from 110k down to 100k, it barely looks like anything on this chart. You can see on this chart, if you zoom in to any point really, let's say, call it like a one to three month period, you can see that it doesn't track it directly, right? You can see that there are times when

like maybe the beginning of 2025, you can see there was a big divergence, um, between M2 and, and, uh, and Bitcoin. It looks like there was another, another divergence back in late 2023. So you do get these moments where it does diverge. Um, but then again, when you zoom out, you can see the overall trend is still intact. And this is, I mean, looking at this chart since whatever, whatever the period dates back to like end of 2023, um,

It does really show you like a very clear trend. So in my opinion, you look at this chart right now and it's just like, it's not even like that off. Like it's actually kind of pretty in line with that, with the money, with the M2 chart. But where we are now versus what happened is like, look, the M2 number shows that we should continue to go a lot higher. And I think it's going to, I think it's going to prove to be correct. Once again, it may not track it exactly. So take another month or two.

possibly but i still think in my view we get to that 120 130k level of bitcoin at some point this summer that's still my my bet i mean the way that m2 has gone since then it would be a surprise i think if if we diverged and just stayed here given how i mean that looks like it should be at like 140 by the end of the summer according to this

Let's see. Let's see. There's obviously been a lot of questions about this correlation during this period, and then everyone always says it's never going to happen, and then it re-correlates again, doesn't it? Just like we saw when it was down like 80k. So don't give up hope just yet. I do think that people get a little bit frustrated in some of the old points not moving in line. It's like Solana, Sui, not having a great period at the moment, and he's kind of holding on rather than outperforming by...

by any means so yeah maybe that's the maybe that's something we have to get get used to question for you what do you think of meme coins here the meme coin world has felt a little bit quiet i think in the last few weeks um you know we did see some bounces from the top coins not quite bounces to all-time highs but um you know some recoveries it seems like the casino crowds so i like to call it

the attention is very split across lots of different things like internet capital market stuff a lot of info fire stuff that people seem to be farming now um you know just kind of seems a bit all over the place really there doesn't seem to be one narrative everyone is getting behind um would you look at the meme coin stuff hits i mean because have performed better than altcoins i think um eight minutes now but i mean coin index a lot i think they have they hit a lot of like

48 billion. It probably says it there if you go to memes. It hit, I think, 48 billion. It was down from like 70. So it's been... We're now at 55, it looks like. So 55 billion on meme coins as a market cap. I think that's down a decent amount. But I don't know. I have owned various meme coins. A few...

Weeks ago, months ago even, when I was getting more bullish on ETH, I said I bought some ETH beta. And I bought Mog, Pepe, obviously I already have Rex. But I did take those off, if you remember, when I was like, oh. And that's been a good trade. Those have gone down and underperformed ETH quite a lot on this move. So I just don't know if the buy-out base is there. It just feels as though it's slightly...

I think people are scared about pump fun, which is a coin coming in two weeks, potentially. They're saying mid-July. So let's say the two, three weeks. And what effect it will have. Pump fun seems to be gearing up for its own chain. And we've seen that with hyperliquid, that sometimes that can be a powerful narrative. So maybe we are going to see... I think people are a little bit worried about the chain that they're on, basically. They're scared about Solana being going as a whole.

And then ETH meme coins, I don't know what it is. Like, I really felt like, obviously, Rax had an incredible period. But other than that, none of them have really, really captured what I think has been a stumble here from, like, Solana meme coins, essentially. And I think that just probably tells you that people are slightly adrift from them at the moment. Like, people scanning the trenches, it's happening, but it's a much smaller audience than it was, right? There's now, like, one runner a month, I would say, rather than...

A daily runner, yeah. And they normally top out like 100, 150 max. And then you never really hear about them. There's been... There's like Chill House at the moment, which is having like a bit of a moment. There's Useless, which I think hit a high of 150. And... Which is just like one of these... Like the joke is that, you know, the coin's useless. That's the meme. I don't really get it. And then...

Yeah, I think that's kind of it, right? Those have been the two more recent ones that have done okay. And Steelhouse is only at like 20 million. We're not talking about something that's gone to like 200. So I just don't think it's coming back either. That being said, I've been more bullish on NFTs, NFTs and YFCs this week. I barely have seen anything on the timeline about that. And that used to be the biggest NFT conference. That used to be one of the biggest crypto conferences, right? And now that seems slightly...

just quiet. Like, I don't know where people are degenning right now. It does feel like InfoFi and smaller plays, maybe like hyper liquid medium coins or mega ETH. There's been some plays around the NFTs on mega ETH at the moment. It feels like smaller players rather than like some broad sector where everyone's going for it. Yeah, NFTs are a tough one. I just feel like outside of the creme de la creme of ETH NFTs,

It's hard to see the other stuff move meaningfully and it's hard to want to get big in it. The creme de la creme of Ethan and T's have actually performed relatively well in the last 12 to 18 months. Certainly outperformed Ethan in that timeframe. I love this creme de la creme. So, yeah, it's kind of a tricky one because, you know, if you do want to buy the creme de la creme of Ethan and T's, they're

The entry point is not cheap. You get something in your head and it just becomes a tag phrase for you. Lovely sort of risk is another version, but like why creme de la creme? This is not going to be your thing. I can already tell. But it's expensive. It's not like it's not cheap to the entry point is not cheap, you know, and the factionalized stuff never really took over. So it's harder to express that view. And it sort of feels like,

Kind of feels like a whale game, to be honest with you, in my opinion, which is not necessarily a bad thing, but I think we just have to accept it's a much less liquid market than... People are making money on the InfoFi stuff. This is the extension of Kaito. I've seen ICOBs. Who's probably the number one InfoFi guy in the whole market? He says he's made like $100,000 this month from all the airdrops that he is talking about.

and writing about. I don't, I think it's very much top heavy in that like the top people on these things benefit. And there's been a big discussion over the last two months, let's say, that it's just completely, it's just ruining the Twitter experience for everyone else. I think Kobe has been pretty vocal about his criticism.

I think he's using the term that they're like seagulls, seagulls at the beach trying to eat your fish and chips. We've used them for Yeet, and I'll be honest and say, at the top, you get very good content. At the bottom, you get a lot of AI slot. And it's just a mix. But I can tell that it's drifting away.

more towards AI slot than it is to actual value. What's your view? Yeah, I think I agree with you. I think I would definitely put it more in the AI slot category, I would say. Do you think people should be focused on this? There is clearly money to be made. ICO bases make 100 grand a month. I think you can make money on it. I think all this stuff has value. You can make money on airdrops for sure.

And the idea is that the airdrops are now trying to go towards users who are more worth it, if that makes sense, people who talk about it a lot more. And I think you can make money on like, you know, the initial like platform that's housing it, the airdrop from that too. So there's money to be made, but you know what I mean? Like there's different types, there's different ways to make money. And for me, writing about shit that I just don't care about,

and probably using AI to write it, it just is not a very pleasurable way to make money. If I was like, okay, I really want to make a hundred grand and I'm going to grind to do it. And that's a level of wealth where I'm not at quite yet. Then I think this is really easy money. I do. That's the way I view it. But this is the thing. It's sort of like for these people,

For these projects to come onto these AI platforms and want to get visibility in their project, ideally you need the big KOLs talking about it and putting out their views and theses on it. And if you're not attracting the big KOLs because they're not interested in, you know, and this stuff is not fun, right? You're literally grinding every day. Because if big KOLs generally have, you know... Yeah, you have to leave your ego at the door. Yeah, exactly. They're not going to do that. So you end up just getting all these smaller accounts talking about it

Which is fine. And maybe, you know, maybe there are some bigger accounts there like ICOB. Whale. Yeah, Whale, a handful of others. But, you know, like I see these guys talk about fucking like 10 projects a week on all random stuff that no one's ever heard of. You know what I mean? So, you know, they've all diluted their own brands because you just know anything they say is not, you can't take it

with any ounce of genuineness. Like, it's just like, okay, well, you know. So I guess like, what then, what all that then equates to is like, can you fool the people who don't understand how InfoFire works into reading that stuff and believing it and then going and buying a token or coming to a platform? Maybe, but I think that's not a very sustainable business model. So my opinion on InfoFire, like, if you're a nobody and you need to get some eyes on what you're doing,

sure it's a good idea but um i would argue how effective it really is and i think i feel like i've been in this space for about three or four years now where i've seen stuff like sponsorships and marketing stuff and like people pay crazy numbers for it and where i just know it's not like that's not worth that and this feels like another version of that basically yeah that's a good point i feel like it's probably still it's got probably more like a peak engagement

point right now, yet the actual feeling behind that engagement is like the lowest. I think that's where we're at. It's like it probably is having the most impact in terms of maybe likes and retweets and all this sort of stuff. But actually people's feeling around it is the lowest. I think that's an interesting point to see if they can bring it back to actually value creation. I think the concept behind it

Having KOLs who are actually providing actual useful information for people and incentivizing that was the original aim. But it seems to have drifted slightly away from that now into just buying fake interest. Should we move on to questions? Yeah, we do have a few questions here, actually. So before we do that, just a quick shout out to

Our affiliate partner, Arch Public. Once again, I would imagine they've done very well this last week with all the chop and volatility. I haven't checked my trades recently, but I would imagine there's probably two or three buys on that in the high 90s, low 100Ks in Bitcoin. And I'm sure it would have made some sales yesterday or the day before as well. So realvision.com forward slash Arch if you are just interested

blowing your brains out with the chop it's definitely a good tool to use to take the emotion out of it i love it osf is going for a lovely summer of risk and he's in a chop trading bitcoin product at the moment uh follow what he's doing guys follow what he's doing not what he's saying i i have my i'm positioned for the lovely summer of risk just but what can i say other than a repeat of all the coins that i earned that i'm not touching you know

First question from Benedict. The crypto majors are proving to be rather weak, even in the face of significant risk on Nasdaq all-time highs and rising once again today. Despite the positive expected news over the next few weeks, why do you think crypto is continuing to lag? It's a really good question. I think one of the unintended consequences of perhaps crypto going mainstream is

is that a lot of the crypto apps and the crypto products are like IPOing or starting to enable stocks to trade on them. And you're seeing this kind of mixture between the two now. And this is kind of what I was touching upon during the show is that I think they're starting to become slightly more competitive than they perhaps were

So like when Coinbase stock is rallying or when these treasury companies are rallying or even when like the NASDAQ slash robotics AI stocks are rallying, I think that is... And you're on Robinhood and you can trade any one of those now instantly across pretty much every geography. And that's the same for... That's going to be the same for Coinbase, Bybit, Binance soon, I'm sure. Yeah.

I think we probably have to understand that the world that that is, is that we will see periods where crypto maybe does best when other markets are more boring. But maybe that's a hot take. But I do think I can just see it from my time. I can see it from people that I would consider core crypto Twitter. They're talking about stocks. They're talking about stocks. Anson, one of the biggest, you know, crypto influencers is talking about his, the stocks that he's investing in. Like that's,

That's a shift. I think it speaks to a lot of people in the space doing the same. Yeah, I think that's fair. I think, you know, I talked about the Sharpe ratio of some stocks versus crypto. And I think you just haven't seen, you know, like in 2021, when rates were low and everything was sort of priced to where it got priced to, people were just desperate for like any extra yield or risk taking, whatever, you know, whatever it was. And then they really dipped down to crypto and things got really aggressive.

And we've now seen this like great big crypto rally, but in an environment where interest rates are very high compared to 2021. And that's the only, that's compared to like what happened last time. That's the main thing that's glaring to me. That is different. 21 versus 23 versus 24 versus this year versus 25. We still have the context of the last 20 years. We still have very high interest rates. So my hunch and my gut, and I do think we will see rate cuts soon. And we may even see some over the summer, um,

is that we just need people to start feeling like, oh shit, rates are going lower. And stocks, even though stocks will rally on that because of all the DCF, et cetera, I do think that's when people start to see some of these guys who are multi-asset look again at crypto and perhaps look again at alts as well. And that for me is the missing piece of the puzzle, I think.

Okay, next question. What do you guys think about Coinbase? More upside in the next months? Yeah, I do. I think Coinbase is really good. I think we can continue to go here. I would be unsurprised if Coinbase outperforms majors for the next few months. I think mainly because of what we just said in that the buy base is suddenly, or there's a lot of focus, let's say, on these crypto stocks.

Coinbase is an interesting story in many different senses. It has stablecoin play with Circle. It has the exchange play. It now has the tokenization of stocks play, which it seems to be talking about. And now it has the perps play. I think there's enough of a growth story there. People can point to those and be like, oh, there was a big growth story for the next 12 months that I think you can start to trade it.

a much higher multiple than it was. Circle at one stage being worth more than Coinbase makes no sense to me. So I think Coinbase can go a lot higher. Would you rather buy Coinbase or Robinhood? Oh, that's a really good question. Yeah. Did you see this thing during the week about SBF?

I did see that, yeah. He had invested very heavily in Robinhood and part of the FTX estate had to sell it and they sold it back to the company for $600 million. That would now be worth $4.5 billion. And that's alongside him investing in Solana, obviously, Sui,

Cursor. He invested in Cursor AI, which is the big dev tool. Anthropic he invested in, which, you know, multi-billions are staking that. And the fact that it's kind of crazy to think about his portfolio if he'd not done so many stupid things with Alameda. But I think I like them both. That's what I would say. I like them both. I think they can both be interesting players. Yeah.

Yeah, I think I feel like I'd want to own both. I don't think it would be one or the other. I think I'd want to own both. It's kind of tempting to look at that stuff again, but I just feel like I've missed that move in equities. That's the stuff I should have bought. When I bought equities, that's the stuff I should have bought. Instead, I just bought like this. You could have bought Coinbase stock, yeah. Yeah, I could have just bought Coinbase stock. That would have been the move. That's exactly what I should have done. Why did I do that? So dumb. That's what I did last time. Yeah.

Okay, next question. Do you have any thoughts on SUI and the stablecoin supply growing to over a billion dollars? When the start of last year, it was only five to six million. Does this speak to network adoption? Do you think the price action will be impacted such? I am not like a super SUI bull. I've been kind of public about that. I think it trades pretty high at the moment, but versus...

the activity I see on there. But I do think that stablecoins are going to become incredibly important for L1s, as we just spoke about with Tron. And your ability to capture that stablecoin flows, I think is going to be very, very important. I still think that Solana looks cheap versus Siri. I'm a buyer of that spread. Let me put it that way. But I'm not a buyer of either of them right now. Yeah.

I think I just prefer Solana. If I'm going to play the stablecoin throughput game, I'd play it with Sol. I agree. I also think when you see stuff like stablecoin supply growing, I'm very skeptical of all these metrics on different chains, number of users, TVL, etc. These are all numbers that can be very easily faked.

Fabricated is the wrong word, but very easily propped up by various teams if they need to. One billion is not an insignificant number, but it also doesn't really scratch what we see on other chains yet. So I feel like that number would have to be quite materially higher for it to make an impact on SUI. That's my hunch. Do you think there's a chance that the Solana ETF launch is a repeat of the

Bitcoin and ETH ones taking the price down after launch before the price lift happens? I would say no, because it doesn't have the same grayscale stuff, right? There is a grayscale vehicle, but yeah, there's no one there as big. I don't know, actually. I think BlackRock not applying for one is a big deal. BlackRock for Bitcoin and ETH is basically all in the end. Fidelity has applied, so obviously they're big. But BlackRock not doing it, I think is...

kind of speaks to that they probably don't see like unbelievable demand for it yet, or at least they just kind of want to tell the Ethereum story for now. I'm not like unbelievably bullish on that as a headline, basically. I think it will cause it to rally. I just don't think it will be like, I don't think you'll see massive inflows in the first few weeks. Do you think BlackRock will eventually apply for it anyway if all these other guys are doing it?

Yeah, 100%. BlackRock will definitely have us on ETH. But I think it's taken so long for the ETH ETF to get traction. It's taken months, 12 months, basically, to get the ETH ETF to have any sort of traction. So I think that's something to pay attention to. They probably just thought, right, well, we've got something going now with ETH ETFs.

Do we want to go straight into telling them actually ETH is trash by Salam? I don't know. But it feels as though maybe they've decided, right, well, it took us so long. Let's wait and see. And then we can push it if it really seems big or we start to see the ETH story dwindle. Yeah, fair enough. Okay, cool. Well, we're sort of up to time, but I'll read out the last two comments from Tom and Mike. Tom says, stay positive, Mando.

And Mike says, the creme de la creme of a lovely summer of risk. That is the

The highest of society that is, I think, if we can get there one day. But with that, thanks everyone for tuning in. That was Retrovision. Make sure you guys check out ArchPublic's algorithmic trading platform. For free, you can head over to realrich.com forward slash Arch. Quick question for you guys before we go. Do you share my thesis that we're in for a lovely summer of risk? Let us know in the comments.

We will see you guys next Friday at the usual time, 11.30 a.m. Eastern Time, 4.30 p.m. British Summer Time. I hope everyone has a great weekend and we will see you next week. Hey, Real Vision viewers. A quick pause to introduce you to today's sponsor, Axelar. Axelar is building the rails for the next wave of global finance. Not just crypto, but the future of how assets move, how markets connect, and how institutions plug into open systems. Think of it this way.

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