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Hi, everyone. I'm Raoul Pal, the CEO and co-founder of Real Vision. Here at Real Vision, we're committed to give you the best knowledge, tools, and network to help you succeed in your financial future. If you're enjoying this podcast, please take a moment to give it a five-star rating. It truly helps us continue to bring top-tier content. Thank you so much.
Happy New Year, everyone, and welcome back to Macro Mondays. My name is Mikkel Rosenwald, your usual host, and with me, as usual as well, Andreas, welcome to you. Thank you very much. What a first couple of trading days of the year. You know, I'm...
I'm almost paralyzed. That's what has happened today. But frankly, we've made money, but it's been back and forth, back and forth. And Bitcoin just broke 100K before we went into the studio here. So a lot of stuff to talk about. So Andreas, yeah, we'll get back to Trump. We'll get back to a couple of good trades for 2025. That's sort of the theme today to get really, really actionable. Yeah.
Have you had a good holiday season? New year, Andreas? No, no. No. Why not? You know, I've been ill as beep. I struggled with, is it called a pneumonia or something like that? Pneumonia, yeah. Yeah.
over New Year's. It was my 35th birthday, but I spent the entire day in bed together with my son. So, you know, but I'm standing again. Up and running, making money. That's what count address. Great program for you today, guys. Remember, let's just for any new listeners, perhaps into the new year, that this is a sneak peek into the research that we do at Standard Research, of which we publish a good chunk at Real Vision on the Pro Macro tier.
You can also tune into our Pro Macro Talks with Roel Pal. We're really looking forward to that. I think that's coming up at the Pro Macro Chair. You can also tune into your State of the Union speak coming up. I think it's on Wednesday, right? Yes. Yeah. What can we expect from that? Well, loads of asymmetrical trade ideas. Some single names that I find really interesting for the year ahead.
And also some thoughts of what could go wrong. Because, you know, it seems like we've been stuck in a very positive environment for some quarters in a row. And yeah.
Let's see whether there are things to worry about as well. You know, a lot of people want us to cover both sides of the coin. So I'll look into both the positives and the negatives for this year. Okay, Andreas. Well, Andreas, I was preparing this show to talk about the Washington Post article that came out earlier today. Leaks from inside the Trump camp that his terrorist plan was materializing.
but was also being focused not as universal tariffs. They still call them universal tariffs, but it would only apply to certain key sectors. Quite important news, quite significant market reactions as well. And then came on the bottom of my picture here, this post on Truth Social half an hour ago or so,
Fake news. Donald Trump completely rejecting this news story. What was the market reaction like? What's the make of all this? Well, if we start with bond yields and the US dollar, obviously the dollar sold off on the first headline from Wall Street Journal. And then we've kind of reversed most of that or at least some of it after Trump calling it fake news. So here's how I read it. And let's see how you read it, Mikkel. So...
My assumption throughout has been that Donald Trump intends on using tariffs as a bargaining chip in negotiations. In principle, he's a lot more pro-free trade than what he's willing to admit in public. So it annoys him a lot that some of his key staff members start talking to journalists about this being less hawkish
than what it looks on the surface because he intends for it to look extremely hawkish due to the upcoming negotiations with Xi in China, due to the upcoming negotiations with the new PM in Canada. I assume that Donald, sorry, that Justin Trudeau will step down this week. And,
the whole purpose of this extremely hawkish surface is for it to look hawkish. So it's obviously bad if his staff members start talking about this not being as hawkish a terrorist plan behind closed doors. So I think that's why he's so annoyed. The bluff has been called. That's my takeaway here. So I actually think that we should listen more to the Wall Street Journal article than to Donald Trump's
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Experience the fast, accessible futures trading you've been waiting for with Plus 500. With over 20 years of experience, Plus 500 is your gateway to the markets. Visit us.plus500.com to learn more. Trading in futures involves the risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Not all applicants will qualify. Plus 500. It's trading with a plus. Yeah, I agree completely. It's also possible another angle could be that the Washington Post article was sort of a trial run of this policy. How would markets react?
How's the political reaction going to be? And then he had a very immediate market effect, which perhaps prompted him to issue this post. So really interesting stuff. A lot to keep track on when you're investing live, as you are, Andreas, to say the least. I'm very curious. We also heard today, a little longer than the news queue, that Trump is...
preparing to make a big bang of legislation, taxes, border tariffs, everything put into one piece of legislation, one huge act that he's getting Mike Johnson to push. He's essentially saying, this is what I want to do.
you guys go make the legislation and put it on my desk for signing. Yeah. We'll probably take some time, but very, very interesting. And another part of the Trump power grab, as I see it, because he essentially wants to say to send, okay, this is the legislation you need to pass. Other than that, go home. Stay in your porch. This is all we need to get done. And then you shouldn't do anything else, essentially. But...
Also, do notice that Michael Saylor of MicroStrategy visited Mar-a-Lago 48 hours ago or so. And I think he mostly spent his time with Eric Trump, Donald's son, talking Bitcoin, a potential Bitcoin reserve. And, you know, the timing is a bit peculiar. After this, Michael Saylor basically went public trying to raise a couple of billion in perpetuals.
So, you know, maybe he's sniffed out something in relation to this Bitcoin reserve. Will it be announced already a few days after Trump taking office? My bet would be yes. I don't know. But at least it's, you know, it's a clear signal that Michael Saylor is running around at Mar-a-Lago all the time, right? So a lot of stuff is happening. And they've actually prepared a whole list.
list of things this time around. First time around when Donald Trump entered office, he had nothing prepared. No. Nothing at all. This time it's all prepared. Completely prepared. So everything will happen within the first couple of weeks. Yeah. If he can't get it done. And then he will plan, basically play golf for the rest of his term, I think.
And he will ask Congress to do the same. He'll have to utilize this Republican majority. Let's just stick with Bitcoin a little bit. Back over 100K today. Is this potential government purchase, mass purchase of Bitcoin...
Is that what we need to permanently put us above 100K? Or is that already priced in? What do you think? I know this is speculating, but... Okay. Is it priced in? No. If you look at various prediction markets, it's still roughly at a 50-50 probability, maybe even slightly below 50 in probability markets. So, no, I don't think it's priced in. Okay.
Obviously, it's been a theme for a while, but it's not fully priced in. I consider it a massive buy the rumor, sell the fact kind of event. You know, I don't necessarily think that it's a blessing for Bitcoin to be as involved with Washington, D.C. as it could get here. While it could be a blessing for some of the old coins that we've discussed in recent months, if they're not involved in the reserve. So let's see.
There are pros and cons being actively involved in DC politics. And Bitcoin will be as soon as they have the strategic reserve, obviously.
But aren't they already? I mean, most institutional investors are getting into Bitcoin. The Senate is getting into Bitcoin and into crypto. I think with regards to whether this is already priced in, it's hard to price in. I mean, this is not only news. This would be a huge demand. Yeah, it's a float, basically. So, I mean, of course, it can be priced in, but it's still a search of demand if this happens. So, let's see what materializes. We'll get back to that.
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Andreas, before we get to the five good trades for 2025, I want to reach back to another article you put out on liquidity. I really like this. Obviously, I'm an old management consultant, so I love charts like this or slides like this. This is the life cycle of liquidity. Maybe just explain this to me like I'm 12. What's going on here? Not like I'm 12, but explain this to me like I'm a management consultant.
Oh, okay. That was a different question. So the whole purpose of discussing the liquidity cycle is to discuss when to expect a new round of QE or a new round of liquidity to arrive. Because, you know, we've been discussing that for, say, the better half of 2024 without anything really happening on that front.
So when should we actually expect QE to arrive? At least bond investors, they would like that to happen pretty soon. Me included, sorry for being wrong on that. And my overwhelming take is that we're in the very final phase of admitting to QE being necessary again. And this lifecycle is...
Life cycle that we've seen over and over and over in US monetary policy. So let's start from the beginning, QE. The last round of QE was during the pandemic. They allowed QE to run for way too long.
Because when you do QE, you're like, okay, let's just do this until it's not really necessary anymore. We're not in any rush to get out of this. So let's just do it. And then they taper QE as they see fit, as they see markets behave a lot more solidly. But they taper QE to avoid...
like an immediate impact on markets, right? They want it to be a smooth process all the way until the point where they no longer buy bonds and add liquidity. Once they get to the net zero phase, where they do not add liquidity anymore, they ultimately announce QT. They try to withdraw some of this liquidity. We've been in that process for a while. But during 2022, it started hurting markets a lot.
So towards the end of 2022, as the market impact got too big, they de facto announced what I call QB, quantitative balancing. So if they withdraw $1 by QT, they add $1 via another program. For example, the overnight reverse repo facility or the treasury general account, they ensure that liquidity levels remain in balance.
And that's kind of the environment we've been in since late '22. And it's pretty positive because you basically have a floor under the liquidity level. Now, around quarter turns and year turns, we have some very nasty liquidity developments because of liquidity being close to what I consider paying thresholds for markets. And around quarter turns and year turns, we have this window dressing ongoing by banks.
The Federal Reserve is aware of that and they try to mitigate the issues by all sorts of technical adjustments to their policies.
That's essentially the phase we're at now. They know that we're at pain thresholds. They know they have to safeguard these levels. So they added a standing repo facility over New Year's. It wasn't used a whole lot, but they still were aware that they needed to add some liquidity. They did a cut technical adjustment to the overnight reverse repo facility back in December to push some more liquidity into the system. So they know that they're towards the very end of this phase.
And once they feel like they no longer have the ammunition to keep this QB regime intact without doing all sorts of technical adjustments all the time, they'll start adding liquidity again. It's the next step. There is nothing between the current status and the next phase of QE. So we just...
I mean, we need some sort of meltdown in bond markets or a few nasty job reports, et cetera, then we'll get there. So we are pretty close to some sort of liquidity addition scenario. And I'm pretty certain that it will happen this year. And how will that materialize? What headlines to look out for or remarks from? I think we'll see either some nasty numbers on non-farm payrolls or some...
very adverse developments in bond markets before they get to this conclusion. But we're not too far off. And it basically leads to the conclusion that the very strong dollar that we've seen lately is about to reverse. And I personally think the dollar peaked just before this article with sources from the Trump administration saying that maybe we...
will not be as aggressive on tariffs as you thought. Yeah. And should that be the case? I think this is a tremendous chart. It's made by one from our team, Mikkel, right? You know, it shows that we had the exact same discussion in 2016, 2017, just after the Trump administration took office. And, you know, a lot of talks about tariffs. And then 2017 ended up being a year where
Not a lot of tariffs were implemented. We had a lot of turmoil in the administration. Wouldn't rule that out completely this year either. And the dollar actually ended up weakening on a trend basis all year. I think that's a likely scenario this year as well. What do you think is the coming Trump administration's goal for the dollar here? Are they okay with a drop? Yeah, why not? Why not? I mean, so at least if you look at...
Trump's communication around the dollar historically has not been, you know, he's, of course, he's an America first kind of guy, right? Meaning that you can obviously state that it's important as a symbol to have a strong dollar. But on the other hand, it's very hard to get a balance of trade flows with China without having a weaker dollar, right? So ultimately, from a trade perspective, I think the weaker dollar is actually what they're after. Right.
Yeah. And it's kind of the same message you get from Scott Besson, the new treasury secretary, right? He's in favor of a strong dollar from a reserves perspective. But if you want foreigners to add to dollar reserves, you need to make the dollar sufficiently weak for them to be able to buy it. And I think that's the most important takeaway. If they actually want to ensure that the dollar...
is used in FX reserves across the globe. It needs to be strong, but sufficiently weak for them to be able to buy it. And right now you're not able to buy a lot of dollars in China because it's too strong.
Okay, Andreas. Yes. Five good trades for 2025. I spent far too long introducing the show, so you have two minutes per trade. Now, we have all the time we need, but let's run through them. I know this might be a slightly longer scope than we usually do on this show, but it's a good timing. Yeah, it's more like a 2025 discussion, right? Yeah, absolutely. But it covers some trends, so let's go over them in headline terms. Yeah, but I...
Let me just start by saying, I think what's happening right now is a testimony to us reaching new all-time highs here in January. I think that we've seen a lot of fear in markets. It's been accepted by everyone that we would revisit 70K in Bitcoin because of this global liquidity chart, which is basically only driven by the dollar. Liquidity is not dwindling. It's just a dollar exchange rate exercise, which I dislike.
So, you know, I'm still pretty upbeat. And why is that? Well, okay, we don't need a lot of soft news to get some more interest rate cuts priced in now. We probably have roughly one and a half cuts priced in for the entire year for now.
And, you know, with the signals we're getting from our labor market models, they might get a decent excuse to cut interest rates from the labor market. You know, it's not like I'm saying the economy will do poorly, but they have a base case of 4.3% unemployment. Now, it's very easy for them to get a surprise on the downside from an employment perspective.
And they could use that as the political cover to cut interest rates, even though things are going okay. You will certainly not get a high five if you do not cut interest rates from the White House this year. So they want you to cut interest rates. And they need some political cover to do that. So I think betting on a few more sorry cuts is a pretty decent idea. Then, and this is probably the widow maker suggestion, right?
Let's assume that this tariff show is not as bad as feared, right? Boy, we have some cheap stuff in Europe to offer you guys. For example, the OAT. Yeah. For example, French bonds, they've traded like shit for a while. They've traded better today because of the initial tariff story. And yeah,
you know, the European Central Bank will have to buy European sovereign debt again this year. I'm pretty certain about that. So I think that's a strong case as well. If you're into like more classic instruments as European fixed income. And that's the relevant trade. Both these, we're talking about relevant trades as of now, basically. Yeah, more or less. Yeah. Again, it's been trading like shit for a while, but I think the first signs are there of a recovery is
And then we obviously need to consider, Mikkel, that China is doing really, really bad. When you look at our now costs right now, China is absolutely on the floor, maybe even through the floor from a consumption perspective. And I've been investigating whether there are smart ways to implement this without taking too much risk of being wrong footed by some new stimulus program or whatever in China.
And I actually think buying copper and selling iron ore is a very strong case as a spread trade. So look at it this way, right? China will not build bridges to nowhere again. They know that the infrastructure strategy that they pursued for almost a couple of decades is a thing of the past now.
And their demographics do not underpin the strategy where they keep building stuff that they don't have any use for. So they'll focus their efforts on stuff that they can use and stuff that will help them replace their lack of labor. So data centers, solar parks, stuff like that. Right. So they need copper still to some extent, but they do not need iron ore.
on a high level uh trend basis here and i think this trade works even if china doesn't really recover this year it will also work if it does recover but it can also quote unquote live with the fact that china is really not doing well then we have the question of geopolitics this year um and obviously those prospects are exceptionally tied to it's both what's ongoing in the middle east um
but also to oil markets overall. And yet, you know, I'm not really sure whether I consider it my base case that we get some sort of new Riyadh Accord, but pitch it, Mikko. Yeah, I mean, we are seeing movements in that direction. I think overall, as I've mentioned here,
In my view, geopolitical risk is on the decline. And that can always turn around in a second, but that is my base case. I think we are moving to a point where the Gaza war is either fizzling out or moving to some sort of agreement. It doesn't have to be a black and white. You go from war and now it's peace. It doesn't have to be like that because it's all fizzled out.
And then you look at the Middle East. What have you got? You've got an Israel who's lost all the support, a lot of its popular support in the West, still has its major government support, but that is declining. You have a very, very beleaguered Iran doing very little offensively around the Middle East, doing all they can to keep their own country together. And then you have Saudi Arabia with massive need of investments and of hard cash investments.
due to the oil price. So that should lay the groundwork for renewed talks on normalization. Normalization meaning the relationships between Israel and Arab countries. And the idea of the Riyadh Accord is obviously some sort of grand agreement where Saudi Arabia and Iran and Israel agree
They don't become allies, but they become part of the same security infrastructure. It could involve that Saudi Arabia takes some responsibility with regards to Gaza, with regards to Yemen, perhaps the Houthis.
to get that problem solved. There is some potential here, and it could also include Iran, because Iran has signaled that they're very, very open to talking about a nuclear deal. So if the willingness is there within the US administration, there is some potential to do a grand bargain for the Middle East, a potential I haven't seen for decades, essentially. So,
It's going to be really, really tricky, but I think we will see some movements in that direction. And will that include a softer dollar and more oil? Yeah, very possibly. Very possibly. I mean, Saudi Arabia wants to regain the market shares that it's, I wouldn't even say lost, that it threw away in an attempt to keep the oil price up.
They still have a very strong competitive advantage. It's obviously much cheaper to pull the oil there than anywhere else in the world. So I think at some point, especially as we get closer to the midterm elections in the US, it will get very, very attractive for Donald Trump to manage the price of the pumps. So we'll have to see if some sort of agreement will work.
is possible down there. Obviously, the big caveat of this or the big possibility for Trump here is to create a security infrastructure that allows the US to pivot away from the Middle East. And that's going to be really, really tempting for Trump if he can pull that off. Yeah. So in all transparency, Miguel, we...
along a few proxy oil positions right now. So this is maybe not a story for January, right? But I kind of agree with you that this is one to watch this year, especially since a lot of Volpik members, they've been...
running out of patience in many ways with the Saudi Arabian strategy. And now that we have some momentum behind the oil price for the first time in a long while, we've basically broken this wedge pattern to the upside and we traded that as soon as we saw that breakout. I don't think we have...
you know, tens of dollars left in this oil trade because it will be too tempting for the OPEC members to get in there and flood the market with some oil if the price goes up, right? Speaking of oil, cars, and the likes, Mikkel, and I'll allow you to pitch this one as well because, you know, in my opinion, Elon Musk
basically bought a government. Yeah. He's won every single internal battle within that administration so far. Also the stuff on visas and is it called HB1s or whatever it's called. He won that internal battle versus the Macca, the classic Macca people of the Republicans. Yeah.
But is he taking it too far now? I mean, he's asking the king in the UK to dissolve parliament. He's tweeting that they need to imprison Keir Starmer. Is he taking it too far? And is there a risk that he will be kicked out? I mean, to some extent, all this...
activity on X mirrors the activity of Donald Trump back in 2017 when he got into office. I mean, Donald Trump has basically just delegated that to Elon Musk, it seems, to be the bulldog on social media. I think he is really, really pissing off a lot of people, a lot of international actors. But again, he's not the president. He's not a member of the administration directly. So Donald Trump can always get in and smooth things out.
So the big question is, how much is this endorsed by Donald Trump? How much is the BBC being asked to do this? We simply don't know. Obviously, there is a limit to how far he can go here. There might be a point where Donald Trump has to cut off Elon. Yeah.
But that's not going to be an easy thing to do. He's not a guy you want to piss off. He's possibly the one guy you don't want to piss off in the world right now. So, I mean, it's going to be really, really interesting. I think Tesla is one of the most interesting investment cases this year. There's absolutely a case to show Tesla if he goes too far and gets cut out of the government system.
On the other hand, there is still some upside potential when and if Donald Trump starts talking about electrical vehicles. I mean, we haven't even heard anything from that angle of Elon buying a government. So, yeah, I mean, it's going to be extremely interesting to follow. I think...
It's usually a new president in the US. One of his first international meetings would be with the British prime minister. Is Elon going to be there? Is he going to go to London? They don't want him there. No, no. But that's already a first step because he's been there for all the other meetings. So why wouldn't he be there? Obviously, because he's pissing off Keir Starmer. But yeah, it's absolutely one to watch for 2025. Yeah. But, you know, it also... To me, it seems like, you know, Elon...
He basically bought a government. And now he's thinking, well, I could buy a few more. Yeah. You know, it seems like he's kind of handpicking. Okay, I want this person to run office for office in the UK. I want this person to run for office in Germany. I want this person to run for office here, there, and there. Do you think he's going to jump on the Andrew Tate for prime minister? No, no, no, no. Yeah.
But he's certainly not in the Farage camp either in the UK. It's very interesting as it evolves. I'm not ready to short Tesla yet. No, I agree completely. But it's one to watch. You have to be ready on the trigger for that. Yeah, if he's thrown out, then this trade will move fast in the opposite direction. Absolutely. So I just want to get in a couple of questions. We're running a little over time here, but that's okay. Okay.
Jordan asking us, what do we say about the story about Russian ships dragging their anchors around Finland? That's a very, very interesting story geopolitically, possibly the biggest over the Christmas season here. So essentially Russia is...
sending out Chinese or Russian ships. They're simply letting their anchor drag across the bottom of the sea, cutting off telecommunications cables in the Baltic Sea. It happened close to Denmark as well. It was a huge story, a Chinese ship there. So this is classical Russian hybrid warfare. They're not admitting that they're doing this. They're not explaining why. They're just sort of doing it. And we're sort of, is this Russia? Is this China? It's all supposed to be
A little blurry so that people in the West panic. And that's exactly what they're getting. When you follow the political debate in Denmark, a lot of people are panicking over this, saying that we should cut the support for Ukraine because of this. And that's exactly what they're doing. I think both parties, both Russia and the West, are upping the ante right now.
They're trying to go all in before potential negotiations. One thing I did hear, and I don't think that's been too much in the news, is that, and I'm very confident of this, is that the U.S. suggested a Christmas truce. It's unclear whether it was for the Western Christmas a couple of weeks ago or the Russian Christmas, which is today, I believe. But a Christmas truce was suggested. The Ukrainians weren't bought for this. Putin said, no.
So we do know that and all feelers so far from the Trump camp has been
has met a cold shoulder from Putin. So these negotiations are right now going nowhere. I still believe they will begin to get up and running in the spring, but it's absolutely a massive story to follow in 2025 as well. He's starting to run short on hours if you want to fix this within the first 24 hours of his presidency. Absolutely. Just one final one, Andreas, here. We talked about Bitcoin earlier. Do you have any thoughts on ETH if institutional staking is approved?
Well, that's a long discussion that we can take. I'll promise to get back to that in my discussions on the State of the Union. What I can say about Ethereum here now is that this is the best season for Ethereum through the year. Typically, what we see the year after a Bitcoin halving is a very strong Ethereum season between roughly now and April.
I think that will be the case again this year. I'm in Ethereum and SUI privately as the two major bets.
So I think I'll leave it at that for the shorter version of the show here and get back to the details on the crypto outlook in my State of the Union on Wednesday. Absolutely. One little promise here. We got a question on the chart we had last year in the global M2 versus Bitcoin. We'll bring that for next time. Absolutely. Yeah. So let me just add one comment to that. So there's been a lot of discussions on whether liquidity has actually dwindled or not.
When you look at global M2, you obviously take the M2, so the broad money measure in euros and sterling and Chinese yuan. And then you use the exchange rate to calculate a global M2 measured in dollars. So what you saw during the fourth quarter was a decline of global M2 because of a strong dollar. It was because of the conversion. It was not because liquidity was doing poorly.
I'm personally, and I know that, for example, Mike Howell is against it. I'm personally in favor of using standardized exchange rates so you can see whether liquidity is actually improving or not. Because if a lot of euro liquidity is going out into the system, but the euro exchange rate versus the dollar moves a lot,
Is that a drop of liquidity? In my opinion, not really. And when you see a strong dollar, as you've seen lately, it's a sign that US assets will do well. And I consider crypto mostly a US asset. So I'm against using the global M2 chart because of the conversion issues. And I know, well, we could have like a 30, 45 minute discussions on how to convert M2.
liquidity charts in non-US currencies. But I don't, I dislike the way it's done. That's all I'll say. And therefore, I don't think we'll get to that 70K Bitcoin mark as this chart suggests. I'm positive. Fair enough.
Any final thoughts or words, Andreas? No. Great stuff. Be sure to catch Andreas' State of the Union on Wednesday. You can check out your options for the pro macro product on Real Vision to get all of our content there. Other than that, thanks a lot for joining us. We'll be back next Monday. Thanks for all your support and a very happy new year. We'll see you next Monday. Summertime is maybe good. Summertime is maybe shit.
So within this, we have parties. You can choose the VIP track and then you might be on a boat party and you're doing something else and going for a dinner there or meeting people in different venues and bars. So there's lots going on. It's like a mad treasure hunt. I like the idea of just hanging out with you guys, drinking a rum or a glass of champagne and putting the world to rights and just really celebrating you as our members and our community. And it's a thank you for that as well. It'll be an incredible event.
Listen, get your tickets quick before they sell out. This is the event you've been waiting for. Come and join us for the crypto gathering. We will have an absolute blast. Have you ever wanted to trade Bitcoin but haven't dared try? With Plus 500 Futures, you can trade crypto without the hassle of opening a wallet. With just a few clicks, you can register and start practicing with their free and unlimited demo. See a trading opportunity? You'll be able to trade it in just two clicks. Feel ready?
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