Will AI Take All Our Jobs? (EP.415)
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Welcome to Animal Spirits, a show about markets, life, and investing. Join Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson as they talk about what they're reading, writing, and watching. All opinions expressed by Michael and Ben are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for any investment decisions. Clients of Ritholtz Wealth Management may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast.

Welcome to Animal Spirits with Michael and Ben. We are here in Wicker Park, Chicago, for the opening of our second HQ in Chicago. There is about 60 some odd people, Ritholtz Wealth employees here, which is the largest gathering we've ever done. And a lot of the employees, you know, we should keep track. I don't know how many. But I do know, Ben, that the highest quality employees here at this firm have all come in

from these announcements on Animal Spirits. So allow us to make one more. Yeah, we're like our own LinkedIn here on the podcast. How do we boost this ad? Okay, we need a very, we're looking for an advisor with a very specific set of skills. We need somebody to come in here and work with our multifamily office team. And this person is going to be responsible for being the lead relationship manager

for our ultra high net worth clients. Now, I don't know where the line is. I'm going to throw out a number, Ben. You could correct me if you think I'm wrong. Let's call it 50 million and above. That sounds fair in that ballpark. And-

You get to work with me more because I work with a lot of these clients. Directly with Ben. Directly with Ben. We've got a whole team, but this is the missing part. So we are getting overwhelmed, not to brag, with this offering. And we're really excited about its growth, but we need help. So please, I'm asking you with peace and love. We're being very specific.

You need experience working directly as a lead relationship manager with these people. So if that's you, please reach out. You can go to info at or hiring at ridholtzwalt.com or reach out directly to us. If you want us to be your first conversation, you know where to find us, animalspiritsofthecompoundnews.com.

All right. So I checked into our hotel today. We're staying in Wicker Park and they always give you the rundown of what we got here. We got the bar here. We got this here. We got that here. No fitness center, which I'm okay with because they can give me free passes to the valleys down the street or something.

But they told me that on the second floor is a 90s-themed bar. 1990s-themed bar. Oh, shit. I guess this is just middle age where things constantly make you feel old. Oh, this person is this age? This person has a son or daughter that's this age? And everything in life is, oh, this was actually 30 years ago, not like three years ago. Everything in life as a middle-aged person is designed to make you feel old. This is why people have midlife crisis because they hear about 1990s-themed bars.

I love it. It doesn't, that's not a crisis. That's fantastic. I can't wait to see it. I can't wait to go. Obviously it's, uh, I've got my stonewashed jeans. I'm ready to go. Um, one more question for you. Travel related. This has happened to me twice now in my past two flights. I would like to know the rules of etiquette for when it is okay to ask someone to change seats with them. I have now been asked on my last two flights, excuse me, could you change seats, please? The first one was a gentleman who wanted to sit by his wife or girlfriend and

And I almost said no, because I'm an aisle guy. He wanted me to change to the window. Okay. I think that's maybe a bridge too far, but it was a short flight. So I said, sure, I'll be the good Samaritan here. I got a call today from United. I'm thinking, oh my gosh, they're going to tell me my flight's delayed. But they said, hey, we have a family of four. It's three kids and a mom. They need to sit together. We don't have enough seats to put them by each other. Can you change seats for us, sir? And she said, we're bringing you from an aisle to a window.

Again, short flight, I'm okay with it. If it was a long flight, I might have said no. When is it okay to say no? If someone asks you to change flights or seats. Every time. You just say no. No, I'm with you. Listen, I'm a pushover when it comes to things like that. I always say yes. Unless it's like a ridiculous request. I'm not going to a middle seat.

And you know what they sent me? They sent me a free $15 travel voucher to spend at the airport. Boom. There you go. 15 bucks. You'll take it. Yeah, I'll take it. That can't buy you. They said it's for a meal. That can't buy a meal of food anymore, right? You can't get a meal for $15. Not at the airport. You can't. All right, let's talk about the stock market. So last week, friend of the program, Warren Pies tweeted,

This is why you need to incorporate a little technical analysis in your framework. Sometimes the market can see things that we cannot. Now, you know that I am a longtime believer in technical analysis, not to make predictions about the future or any of these nonsensical technical patterns, but just very simple shit because Warren's absolutely right.

the market does generally bottom before the news does. And I pay very close attention to that sort of action. Hang on, cut you off. Did you hear Michael Sembliss on Odd Lots? I did not. Okay, so he was on Odd Lots and he said he's putting together this collective of his whole career, the lessons he's learned. And they said, what's like one of the biggest lessons that you can give us a little preview on? And that was it. He said-

The stock market always bottoms before everything else. So when stocks are going down, you have to have a little bit of courage to like look over the valley. So you're totally right. Well, we were buying- The macro stuff is not going to, the macro and the fundamentals in the short term is never going to give you the all clear. Never.

Correct. Well, it will, but it'll be way too late. So I was banging the drum on this idea earlier in the sell-off, not saying that I nailed it, although not bad. But my point was that if you were of the opinion that the news hasn't even started, the earnings haven't even started to dip yet, you could have been right. But my point was that the stock market would bottom well in advance of that. So get used to it. So anyway, this is a good topic because somebody emailed us earlier in the week

You and I have been talking a lot about the stats that Dietrich posed that I really love to see. These breadth thrusts, like big change of behavior from oversold to overbought. That's my whole jam. So somebody emailed us with a great question. And they said, I'm wondering if the current breadth thrusts that have been mentioned recently are actually an aberration.

I say that because this market is being driven by the whims and tweets of one person. Tariffs are announced in the market craters. Tariffs are postponed in the market cheers. With such arbitrary movement caused by one person, how could technical analysis really be a keen source of market direction? And I thought that was such a great question and a fair one. It's a fair question. Yep. It's a very fair question. So I will say this. The technical indicators...

Right now in this current regime, listen, nothing works always, obviously, but innocence until proven guilty because the market has looked past this and the market's been right. So with that in mind, Subutrade tweeted, last month, the S&P 500 was more than 18% below its high.

This Monday, the S&P was within 3% of its all-time high. These quick recoveries are signs of strong momentum and tend to be bullish for stocks over the next three to 12 months. So one year later, there's only N equals what? Seven? Not a long list. But again, when things go from super oversold

to super overbought in a quick period of time, that means that something drastic happened, such as tariffs on, oh, wait a minute, tariffs off. Now, the story is still being written. Who knows where this goes? Who knows what happens with the court and all that sort of stuff? Fair question, but for now, I am giving the market technicals the benefit of the doubt. Price is the thing that tells you before anything else. Fair? Yeah, fair. All right, we've been talking about this idea that

investor behavior is improved. It's been a theme of the show over the past couple of years, but certainly over the last two weeks. And Todd Sona has some charts that I think you could argue back that up. So he shows the average daily equity ETF flows. And from the beginning of the year through the bottom, it was basically at an all-time high.

Meaning people were not bothered by the dip. But since the dip, that number has been cut in half, the average daily equity ETF flow. So in other words, people were not scared to run into the fire. They looted the store. They bought stocks on the cheap. And they are not as aggressively buying them on the way up. Right. People turned up the dial in April. Yeah. And then they kicked their feet up and said, uh...

Everyone keeps saying, just wait till this doesn't work. And I just, I don't think that's like a gotcha kind of moment that people think it is. Of course, it's not going to work. There's going to be a long extended bear market, of course. But most of the time, I think the whole thing with investing is make as many good high probability bets as you can over and over again. And sometimes the outcome is not going to be something you like. That's investing. Buying panic is always a probabilistic good move.

Obviously, it doesn't always work. Duh. But more times than not, it does. And this idea, I'm writing about this, Ben. I've got a post baking in the oven at 425. This idea that it's, oh, all you have to do is buy the Mag 7 when they dip and it's just been a smooth ride. Nonsense.

Nonsense. I agree. NVIDIA fell 70% in 2022. And let me remind you that it fell, what, 35%? Very far back. I can remember all the way back till April. It fell 35%. And people are, am I using this term right? I still don't know how to use it. Gaslighting? People keep trying to say like we haven't, 2022 was an actual bear market. Now here's the thing. We haven't had a recessionary bear market since 2008.

But guess what? Recessions are happening fewer and fewer times.

I don't know what people want, but 2022 was a legitimate bear market. It lasted 18 months. It was 25% peak to trough. The NASDAQ was down 30%. Like you said, there was many tech stocks down 50, 60, 70% in that downfall. That was a legitimate bear market. It was. I don't care what people say. Ben, let me throw another term at you. I think what people are trying to do to that bear market in 2022, are they whitewashing it? Are they making believe it never happened? Because it did happen. I was there. Okay. Whitewashing, not gaslighting?

My wife said to me, though, that I stopped gaslighting me. And I wanted to say, I don't think you're using that phrase right, but I don't understand it still. So I couldn't say that to her. It sounds like you were gaslighting her. Ben, don't gaslight me. I don't know what that means, so I have no comeback. So we're going to talk later in the show. We're going to return to...

Some of the data we spoke about last week with Mobison and that chart that we showed last week, you know, that chart that we showed last week, um, the bear market chart from exhibit a chart of the week, the probability of a bear market happening increases over longer periods of time. It's so interesting because you can look in that and come to two conclusions. Yes, you are going to experience bear markets. That is part of the deal, right? This is very obvious to people that have been listening. You can't have, uh,

long-term returns without risk, without bear markets. They are part and parcel to investing. Somebody might take a different opinion and say, well, true. But if you know that bear markets and the downturns are part of investing, why sit through them? Why not maybe try and avoid them if you can? And it's not black or white. I don't want to make believe that it's either or because at our company, we don't view it that way, certainly with our client's money.

One of the ways that people try and protect themselves from bear markets are they buy volatility on leverage. One of the most popular tools in an investor's toolkit is a ticker ETF is an ETF ticker UVXY. And Todd Sohn has a great chart showing the return of this thing over time. And it's, it's just, it's down into the right with brief periods of

of miraculous gains. It's funny. Even with this down to the right, you see like this 150% return, 220% return, whatever. It's barely even registered. So this is a tail risk. I'm not familiar with this strategy or this product, but this is a tail risk strategy, right? Not necessarily. I mean…

It's in that category. It's the levered VIX, and it's just pure decay. But I think the point is there's been $9 billion in cumulative flows into this ETF. I don't know what's currently in there, but it's just a money incinerator. And guess what? I think people view this either as speculating or insurance or whatever. And I guess if done- This has got to be insurance. Because if you just mirrored this graph and turned it around, you'd say, I want to buy that thing.

which is obviously just shorting volatility. Anyway, I think Todd's point is long volatility, like these sort of hedging strategies,

are really hard to time. And I know there's a lot of quant nerds out there that are all over this stuff. And I think from what I can tell, just based on the products that are available in the ETF wrapper, I think this thing has to be actively managed. I think buying and holding these products are just, you're just asking for trouble. We've talked to enough people who have options-based strategies, and they all say the same thing. You can't set it and forget it with these types of instruments. You have to manage around them based on what the market is doing or those individual securities. Yeah.

I agree with that. All right. Somebody emailed us. Another email said, I feel that the S&P 500 might be about as risk-free as it gets if you have a 10-ish plus year time horizon. What I mean by that is there will certainly be times where it goes down, but does anyone really believe that it won't go up over the long term? I know this sounds too optimistic, but when I think of risk, I think of going down and never coming back to the same levels, not volatility. I would be curious to get your opinions. I'm just an average investor, not a professional, so I'm sure

Not, not using these terms exactly how they may be technically defined. I think this is generally correct. If you are of, if you have the ability to look through the volatility and you think about risks through the prism of, will there be permanent impairment of my investment? Will I earn on, earn a return on this investment? I think that's the right framework. Um, and I, I know that this person is probably speaking a little bit hyperbolic, um, but

Yeah, risk-free is, but if you're at an all-time high, that means the stock market has literally come back every single time. But no one was saying this in 2009, 2010, even to like 2013. Living through that, there was, the S&P went nowhere for like a 13-year period, essentially. You had the lost decade. So that, those lost decades are, can certainly, so I say even a 10-ish year time horizon. I can't get there. I can't get there.

No, I don't think I can either. I get what they're saying. It literally has always come back. If it hits an all-time high, that means it has. But there are periods where even for 10 years, you can be in a lot of pain and a lot of volatility. Yeah. So if you have the right mindset, you're probably best off with this investing mentality. But to think that it's risk-free is a bridge too far. Yes. All right. Um,

Back to this research piece from Mobison that we hit on last week. Did you actually read it or did you chat GPT it? I actually read it. I will admit, I have four pages left. AI needs a verb. Google it. They needed their own verb. What is it? Chat GPT it. It doesn't sound cool enough. Nah. And AI, it doesn't work. I don't know. We'll think about it. Or maybe somebody has an idea. So the big takeaway for me was...

Almost now with this data, not to, not to nitpick, but they used, they included stocks with a market cap of a million dollars inflation adjusted. That's, that's very small. I would wonder what happens if you get rid of some of the, you know, nano cap stocks, but be that as it may, the takeaway is, I think it was like, damn it. I'm remembering exactly what it was. It was like 60% of stocks on this list all get cut in half. Almost all stocks get cut in half eventually.

Right. That's not out of the ordinary. Now, there's a difference between the thinking that I have with individual stocks versus the market. I think that individual stocks, if you know this—

and think about how difficult it is to predict the future. Forget about sitting through, because all that we've spoken about up until now is just price action, just sitting through this. But the reason why these stocks get cut in half is because there is really something either temporarily or permanently impaired with the business. And obviously, most of us here are not professional investors doing deep analysis, so we don't really know. And even if you were, think about Netflix. Bill Ackman,

obviously one of the most prominent investors of all time. He sold Netflix at the bottom. And I'm not dunking on him for it. They looked like they were in trouble. They were shrinking. It was the first time ever. And it was like, all right, maybe that's as good as it's going to get. He sold Netflix at the bottom. Is Netflix up four times since he dumped his stake more? I think Netflix has fallen 70% either three or four times in its history. Like just these massive, massive crashes.

So you're not, you're just not, unless you're an insider, you're not going to have the conviction to hold these stocks while they're down 60%. How could you? Why would you? But wait, isn't the advice, like if you're going to bottom fish like this, isn't the advice to treat it like a VC portfolio where instead of just trying to pick one stock that's down 50 or 60%, you got to pick a handful of them and hope that a couple of them make up for the ones that don't come back.

If you're going to do this, isn't that the rule? That's one way to do it for sure. I would say my rule, because you do know I like to pick bottoms. I can't help it. But I never catch a falling knife. I always, always wait for the stock to stabilize and at least attempt to either build a base or put in a higher low. I never buy stocks that are in free fall ever, ever, ever. You can't do that. Mr. Technical analysis today, huh? I have rules.

This is great. So two, two quick points that I wanted to know from the post researchers study the behaviors of retail investors regarding stocks that currently own. So speaking of bottom fishing, they found that investors are roughly 50% more likely to buy more shares after a stock of a stock after it went down versus when, when it went up 50% more likely Ben to buy a stock that's going down than going up.

The psychological rationale is that the lower average cost reduces the investor's reference point, mitigating the likelihood of suffering from loss aversion. This work found that averaging down did not benefit the returns of the investors who did it. So we just touched on that. The other point that's interesting is they studied turnarounds. So fundamental turnarounds.

A downturn is defined as, and they cite data from UBS Holt, a downturn is defined as two years of returns on investment below the cost of capital following two years of returns on investment above the cost of capital. A sustained turnaround is three years of returns above the cost of capital following the downturn. So the study concluded that only 29% of companies had a sustained turnaround in

And nearly one half had no turnaround at all. So price is right. Most stocks, once the business starts deteriorating, most of them are not Netflix. Most of them do not turn around. That's that research about the loss aversion. That's why I think loss aversion is like the most important behavioral concept to understand for investors. Just that whole, I'm going to wait until it breaks even, or I'm going to, I'm going to keep buying as it goes down to make yourself feel better.

And that's why momentum is such a hard factor to follow because it's counterintuitive. It doesn't feel right in your brain to keep buying a stock that has gone up, even though a lot of times that's the right thing to do. I have gotten, I don't want to say good at it because that's an overstatement because it's really hard, but I have discovered a small ability to add to winning positions, which it sounds like a joke. Like, yeah, I mean, obviously buy more of what's working. It's really hard to do.

This is why I'm out of stock picking. I'm retiring.

Dude, you're right. Honestly, it's such a goddamn waste of mental energy. Like, it really is. It really is. All right, let's talk about rates real quick. I have a question for you. You know the Louis C.K. bit where he talks about something really bad that's happened in history, like the fact that in Egypt they used slave labor, but they built the pyramids? Like, okay, that's really bad. But maybe, you know that one? But maybe, yes, of course. So listen, going into a recession is awful. People lose their jobs, businesses go under.

But maybe, like, do we need a recession to right-size people's brains in a lot of different ways? I don't want a recession. I think they're terrible. If we can avoid them, I think we should avoid them at most costs. But I do think people need a gentle reminder sometimes what actual bad economy feels like. Because I don't think people know what it—

I think people have just forgotten. So I mentioned this before that I think the next recession is going to get weird. And I did listen finally to your Rich Bernstein talk with Josh, and he kind of mentioned something in a similar vein. I think the reactions in the next recession are going to be – it's going to be hard to predict because a lot of people just haven't had them in their adult lives yet.

Like I lived through recessions when I was a kid or a teenager and I didn't even know they were happening. Like you don't, I don't think that stuff registers to you unless something bad happens to your family or you hear a story. Um, but I, when I, when you were growing up, did you ever know what was going on in the economy or the markets? Never, ever. No, I never came up in my household. I never looked at it on the news. Maybe it's just easy to follow. Are you talking like, give me an, give me an age cutoff, like before you were 15 years old.

Yeah, for me, it was before I graduated college. I didn't pay attention to anything economically related, the markets, like the rest of that stuff was all just, it didn't exist to me. Did you know that there was a dot-com bubble and that it burst? No, I had no idea. I literally did not pay attention to the stock market at all. I don't think I did either. In fact, I had a family member who

was young and made it during the dot-com bubble and then got rugged by the burst. And even then,

Like it didn't register that there was like economic activity going on. That was like interesting. See, that's the difference between now and then you could be so naive to anything back then. I would, I would, I would pay attention to politics every four years when the presidential election would come up. I kind of pay attention and that was it. So today, today you, you cannot be naive because everything is just shoved down your throat. Okay. That was my recession rant. Um, of course,

Torsten Slott chart of the week. He shows- But wait, but wait, but wait. Hold on, hold on, hold on. I don't understand the point of the rant. It's just like, do we need, do certain people need a reminder of, there's people complaining still. People always complain that this is terrible and that's terrible. And I don't think people really know what a bad economic environment is. Oh, okay. I don't want to be that guy, but- I mean, this is a little bit pucker up buttercup.

I just, I think people need a reminder like, oh, that's a recession. Okay. I definitely didn't want that. Okay. So spreads are still very low.

barely budging still, so they're not worried at all. I think this is interesting. Sometimes markets make no sense. So I was looking at TLT the other day, still in a 43% drawdown. People are worried about rates normalizing, you know? And I compared it to SHY, which basically had zero drawdown. When the rates rose, I think SHY fell 3% or 4%. That's the one to three-year treasuries. If you look at the rates now, a two-year treasury is at 4%, call it, and a 30-year is at 5%.

So you get 1% extra right now over yield in a 30-year. People are worried about that. But you literally just had to live through a 45% drawdown to get that extra 1%. Does that make sense in a risk-reward perspective to you? Wait, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa. Sorry, I have to, this is a yellow flag.

Why? You're not, because you're, what about price appreciation? I mean, come on. Just think about this from the perspective of risk and reward though. Why aren't 30-year yields way higher or why isn't there a way bigger spread right now? I know this is things are normalizing and it's taking some time, but that trade-off makes absolutely zero sense to me. Why you would own long-dated bonds versus short-dated right now? Well, because the Fed is going to be-

I know that you buy them and yields fall and then that's when you make up for it. It just seems like there should be a bigger bang for your buck yield-wise to induce you. Maybe that's why rates are rising because people aren't being compensated for it. Well, on the investment grade side, that makes more sense to me. Okay, just a thought. Sometimes markets are weird, that's all. All right, speaking of weird, obviously Jamie Dimon is... This is not even...

Nobody would debate that he's not one of the greatest bank executives of all time. Certainly the greatest living leader of any bank in America and the person that anybody would want leading the biggest bank in their nation. That being said, he's doing it again with this doom and gloom talk. So in 2022, in June, he said, you know, I said there's storm clouds, but I'm going to change it. It's a hurricane.

While conditions seem fine at the moment, nobody knows if the hurricane is a minor one or super storm standee. You better brace yourself. Diamond told the room of analysts and investors, JP Morgan is bracing ourselves and we're going to be very concerned with our balance sheet. All right. Of course, JP Morgan should be concerned with their balance sheet. But that was in 2022. And now, last week, he said, you are going to see a crack in the bond market, okay? It is going to happen. The US is headed for a reckoning. And I'll tell this to my regulators. It's going to happen and you're going to panic.

I just don't know if it's going to be a crisis in six months or six years. Now, maybe he's right. I mean, obviously, I hope he's not right. I'm sure that he would hope he's not right. But why keep saying this publicly? I have an idea here. And-

You know, I hate the boy who cried wolf stuff like that stuff. I feel like every six months it's Jamie Diamond warns, Ray Dalio warns, Paul Tudor Jones warns. Like I want to issue a warning one of these times, but you know how when you were little and your dad would make you get to the airport three hours early and constantly warning people, we're going to be late. We're going to be late. Like, is he just doing this as like a, just a reminder to himself and his employees that like, we have to be ever vigilant. There's always the possibility something could break.

And he's constantly doing the boy that cried wolf on purpose. No, I don't think so. I don't really know. Okay. So the tariff stuff last week, I can't believe we got to keep litigating terrorists, but I guess they're like literally litigating them. It's a court thing that said first they're illegal and then they're not illegal and there's appeals. And I hope we don't just have to keep arguing about them going back and forth. But James McIntosh at the wall street journal said, listen, the, the,

The most likely scenario is just a muddle through, right? Terrorists will probably slow growth, but they're not going to kill stuff. And the tax bill will probably be okay. And things aren't going to be crushed now that we've kind of backed off. He said the U.S. economy can probably muddle through as long as the government keeps out of it, which it sounds like the government does. But isn't, I don't know, is that now the baseline? I feel like the baseline has shifted 12 times in the last month.

I think the baseline is now no recession. Things are back to normal. Yeah, there'll be some tariffs somewhere, but this- The Atlanta Fed data came out this morning, and remember it had a big crash last month, then it finished slightly negative. And again, these things are not all knowing or all seeing, but they're directionally right. And now it's saying over 4% real growth for Q2? The prediction markets, the odds of a recession are crashing. It was at 70. Well, obviously, if the-

Growth is going to look like this. Can you imagine being a contrarian all the time and constantly trying to make these predictions? Just wait. This is going to, you know, the Mag 7 is done for and the U.S. economy is done for. And I just can't imagine that. It's a lonely life. Not for me.

All right. Did you read, did you see all the stories about the Federal Reserve's new financial well-being survey? I like this stuff. I did not see this. This is one of my favorites. Okay. 73% of adults reported either doing okay or living comfortably financially. Pretty similar to recent years, but it's the high of 78 in 2021. Then they do the one where they ask, how do you feel about yourself? I'm fine. 73% of people say, again, I'm doing okay or good, but just...

46% say the local economy is doing good, and just 29% say the overall economy is doing good. That really cratered since pandemic. So this is the, I'm doing fine, but the economy stinks. And this really happened during the pandemic. Yes, it did. But it looks like it's rebounding, especially the local economy. No, a lot of it. This one's interesting to me. It says 27% of adults consider themselves to be retired, but

And then they asked how many people actually consider themselves to be on track to retire. And I think 35% of people among non-retirees said they're on track to save enough for retirement. Is this just the thing where even if you're doing really well, you probably don't feel like it? Because remember, I shared with you an email we got, a question from someone, and they said, hey, does it make sense to have a financial advisor for someone who's in the middle class like us with $2 million to $3 million?

And these people were not being tongue-in-cheek. They were being serious. And maybe they live in San Francisco or New York or something, and to them, they feel middle class. But is this just the thing where no one ever quite feels like they're totally prepared for retirement? I mean, come on. That's just not middle class. Yeah, of course. But you're right. But can we just... I just want to revisit the previous chart just for a minute. The assessment of own financial well-being versus local economy and national economy. Look at...

what happened during the pandemic. Yeah. Because in 2019, the gap wasn't that wide. And I feel like absent the pandemic, we wouldn't be talking about this gigantic theme of everything's going to hell, but I'm okay. That's been a big talking point for the last five years. And it's a post COVID thing. And it's a, and it's a post inflation thing. I feel like it is possible that COVID broke sentiment surveys, maybe for a whole cycle, maybe forever.

I don't, yeah, I don't know about forever, but certainly, certainly for the last five years and who knows how much longer this lasts, but I, but, but look, there is a pretty big rebound from the bottom of people's assessment of the local and national economy. All right. I have another question for you. Are you more worried about

inflation from government spending and deficits or deflation from AI? And is it possible? So this is like a Doomer thing. Like I'm worried about AI taking all the jobs, but I'm also worried about inflation from all the government spending and deficits. But I think you have to pick one or they balance each other out. Let me move the goalposts. I'm not not worried about inflation from government spending, but I am. And I'm also not worried about deflation from AI, but I am much more concerned about

And we have this later in the doc. I am much more concerned about the damage that will be done from AI than I am from the damage that might be caused because of our deficit. Not even close. Isn't AI the solution to all the people worrying about government spending? And if AI really is a job killer, isn't the government going to have to spend more money on unemployment insurance and entitlements and such?

I don't know. So I did this thing where I looked at government debt, 10-year yield, and inflation every 20 years going back to 1975. And the government debt explodes. Inflation and rates are lower now than they've been most of these other 20-year periods. Maybe this is cherry picking. But someone asked me last week, like, when are you actually going to worry about government debt? Because you and Michael always kind of poo-poo it. And this is- I don't think I poo-poo it.

I think that the risks are- We've just tried to calm people's nerves. But here's the thing. You can call me naive or like, but I'm going to wait till the market tells me to worry about it. How's that? Like when the, because I don't want to, this is another Boyo cried wolf moment. I must have that analogy in my head. I told my son the story about it because he constantly does that. And then he tried to tell the story to his sisters and totally butchered it. So we're still working on storytelling.

But I, this is a situation to be like, if the market really does freak out, then I will start to freak out. But until it, until we start seeing really high inflation for an extended period of time and really high interest rates, because people don't want to buy our government debt anymore, then I'll start to worry. But until then, I think it's, I don't think it's worth worrying about. Is that, is that too flippant or naive? I don't know. To each their own. That's, that's not, but like, if people are talking about managing risk, it's like, okay, great. You're going to freak out.

You're going to buy insurance after your house burns down? But how are you going to manage risk of what would that even look like? Well, if you're worried about government debt, how do you prepare for that risk? I don't know what it could be. Don't own treasuries? Dude, you buy gold. You buy Bitcoin. Okay. Sure. No, that's the answer. All right. You think gold is going up just coincidence? Like people are buying gold because they're worried about the deficit. All right. I...

I'm not going to worry until the market does. Fair. That's, you know, to each their own. Okay. Climbing anywhere, dude. My dirty whites. All right. There was an article, an opinion piece in the New York Times. I'm a LinkedIn executive. I see the bottom rung of the career ladder breaking. And no offense, kind of a nothing burger. If you told me Chad GPT wrote it, I wouldn't, I would believe you.

I pulled up, because we have the data, it's available, the unemployment rate for people 20 to 24 years old. Now, I actually am genuinely concerned about the future of young people's careers. And we're starting to see it in the data a little bit. The unemployment rate for young people is- But this is below average, just eyeballing it, obviously. Yeah, but the gap between this and employed people is pretty wide.

And I think this will get worse. So not to nitpick totally. Although I guess I did just nitpick because I am worried. It's just not showing up yet. So Colin tweeted, maybe my biggest long-term macro prediction. First, AI will come for services inflation. Then the robots will come for goods inflation. Then the government will come with Zerp. 10 to 20 years max, maybe sooner given FS, AI is changing.

So he's in the AI is more deflationary camp, right? Worse. I just think from a societal perspective, massively job displacing. And listen, the tech folks will say, dude, every single technological wave of advancement has had people. This is the boy who cried a wolf. Everything changed.

That has come, has created more jobs than it displays. It's moved. Yeah, we have a dynamic economy. People are going to have to pay attention to the robots. And so I think the best advice here, though, is Josh said own the robots. I think owning stocks is if you're really worried about this world, you own stocks because how many trillion dollar companies are there going to be for robotics and AI and that sort of thing? A ton of them.

I think I'm with Cullen. I do think... Now, it doesn't matter, right? Like, our opinions. Nobody's stopping this. It's not... It's coming. And I do think that there will be... I think that this will prove history wrong. I think this might be the time. Maybe it won't. We'll see. Obviously, I hope it's not. It's going to make things really weird. I'm picturing the relationships and the...

it's going to make things so bizarre. It's going to be a weird world. I mean, the difference between AI and all previous revolutions, it's, I think it's apples and oranges. I think it's, I do think it's genuinely different. The power of these machines and what they could do, it's, it really is like nothing we've ever seen. So Matthew, but then people will get used to it and then they'll complain about it.

A record surge of investment. A record surge of investment in information processing equipment boosted US GDP by a full percentage point in the first quarter. In other words, excluding the data center bonanza, the economy would have registered a 1.2% contraction. This chart is off the charts. It's wild. Here's another one. Mary Meeker published a 300-page report. I have not gone through all of it, but I did pull out one chart that shows the growth of

USA IT jobs that are AI versus non-AI and non-AI tech jobs are down 9%, which is wild. Since 2018, AI jobs are up 448%. So our advice to our kids is going to be to go to trade school, right? Become a plumber, become an electrician, become a builder. I'm only half kidding, but those physical world things are going to be

For now, we're going to talk about robots in a second, but the transcript posted this. This is from Alphabet. The world is responding and adopting AI faster than ever before as one marker of progress. This time last year, we were processing 9.7 trillion tokens a month across our products and APIs. Now we are processing 400 trillion monthly tokens. That's about a 50x increase in just a year. Holy shit. So there was a great article, a really phenomenal article by Nightview Capital.

talking about Amazon and their robots and how they're doing what they're doing. And I pulled this out. Over a decade ago, Amazon made a pivotal move by acquiring a robotics company called Kiva Systems. That acquisition, one former head of systems and products at Amazon Robotics told us, was based on the fact that roughly 50% to 60% of the labor costs in a warehouse were due to the time spent walking to pick up inventory. Holy shit.

Automating this was the first step. Today, Amazon has deployed more than 750,000 robots across its operations network to help fulfill orders. But Amazon is still hiring too. So it doesn't seem like it's completely, I guess it stopped them from hiring more people, but it hasn't put everyone at Amazon out of work. I mean, not yet, but it's dramatically slowed.

So do you remember when CoreWeave went public? And I think we talked about it on this show. And I said, it's weird to have an AI company go public. And I think it went down or it was flat the first day. And not a bonanza. And this is at the end of March. And since then, it's up, I don't know, 200% or something. It's just gone bonkers. So I guess it just took some time for people to get back into the AI bubble. You and I had the opportunity to invest in CoreWeave.

Yeah, I know. Yeah, you told me about it and I kind of, why would we do? Yeah. Whoops. Okay. So speaking of like good, let's focus on the good stuff because everyone will focus on the bad stuff. So did you see this Waymo article in the Wall Street Journal? Ben Cohen. He read some of my favorite profiles. He's really good. He said Waymo, and I feel like this is the kind of thing where it doesn't get nearly enough publicity. Like why aren't, why isn't everyone paying more attention to this?

Waymo was doing 10,000 paid rides a week in August, 2023. By May, 2024, it was up to 50,000. In August, it hit 100,000. Now it's more than 250,000. And so they cracked a million total paid rides in 2023, 5 million in 2024, and 10 million in 2025. So they're going to do 20 million by the end of this year. Just- It's magical. People are literally driving in cars with no one driving it. It's-

Yeah, it's unbelievable. I got to go to the bathroom with that. All right, Ben, let's talk about real estate. So the Wall Street Journal had a headline that said, home sales in April fell for the second straight month. The slowest sales pace for any April in 16 years indicates the spring selling season is shaping up as a bust. So Ben, for the last couple of years, the economy has marched on while one of the biggest components of it has slid downwards.

Probably an unthinkable outcome if you said, hey, there's going to be an absolute depression in the real estate market, single family homes, at least existing homes, I should say. What's that going to do for the overall economy? Nothing, really. But the housing stocks are getting murdered, even with the incentives helping people buy down some mortgages. They're not doing so hot. Here's a quote from the Toll Brothers CEO via the transcript.

They're buyers on the sidelines. One of the reasons we are favoring pace over price is because we believe this market is fairly inelastic and to throw more incentive at home sales, it's going to hurt your margin a lot more than it's going to increase sales because the buyer is not responding over $5,000, 10, 15, $20,000 more incentive. Many of them just happen to be on the sidelines. Not great.

So that sidelines it. This is all mortgage-related. So the one chart that was flying around this week from Redfin, which was really good, it says there are nearly 500,000 more sellers than buyers. And they say that's by far the highest number since 2013 when they began tracking this.

And so they, I mean, the thing is though, this, there's an easy fix to this. So a lot of people were worried about this and saying, listen, this might mean that, so we've been talking about like the Florida real estate market being, you know, there's way more inventory. And obviously this is, this is everywhere now, almost not everywhere, but most places, this is a nationwide thing.

And so I think for the first time we can say housing prices falling makes sense because mortgage rates keep staying at 7%. But isn't the solution for this just mortgage rates get to six or five and boom, all that demand immediately comes back. Yeah. Yeah. Because the whole buyer strike right now makes a lot of sense to me. Yeah, me too. Wow.

That's a crazy chart, right? Yeah, really good. Really good stuff. Now, a lot of people are saying like, oh my gosh, this is crazy. But then Logan Motoshami posted the total housing inventory. Like what's for sale? And look at this chart. It is way, way lower than it's been historically. It's coming up a little bit. So the problem is that there's not a lot of sellers and there's not a lot of buyers. There's happened to be more sellers now, but there's not a lot of activity for either of them. So-

The advice that we always give is like, boy, trying to time this housing market, good luck with that. But I think if you tried to wait for lower mortgage rates, there's just going to be a flood of buyers coming in. So honestly, I think now is a really, really good negotiating place for people if you're buying, if you can stomach the 7% mortgage rates. I think you're right. I don't like ever timing this stuff, but I think that's it. Ben, for the past couple of months, at least prior to

the real pause in tariffs, I was saying the soft data is below the hard data. And if the tariffs remain on, it's hard to see the hard data not catching down, right? It's hard to see spending not following people's moods. But it just hasn't and isn't. American Express, here's a quote, again, credit to the transcript for finding this. I think that, look, consumer sentiment is in the toilet.

But yet they're just complaining as they go spend. That's what we're seeing. Now, American Express serves a premier customer segment, obviously, but it's not just them. Bank of America is saying the same thing. Visa MasterCard is saying the same thing. People are spending and it just all comes back to the labor market. So long as we're employed, we're not going to change our spending habits, period. So this is what I'm saying. Don't you think in an actual recession, the sentiment figures are going to be lower than we've ever seen them?

Yeah, they already were. They already were. Absolutely. But I think they're going to go lower than we've ever seen once we actually hit a recession because it's just been so long since we've had a real one. Hey, Ben, let me ask you a question.

One out of guess how many households in the U S has a net worth of a million dollars. Just kidding. This is your chart. So I know you know the answer, but what are we looking at here? It's pretty good, right? So this is funny in 1910, 5,000 households were worth a million dollars in net worth. Now it's one out of every six or 22 million households are worth at least a million dollars. This is from the hustle. Uh, net worth is total assets minus. I don't know if this includes housing or not. It doesn't really say I'm guessing it does. It's got, it's got it.

So it's, it's, it's, we've added 8 million households that are millionaires in the last decade. So one out of six, one out of every 60 was households. This is why it doesn't feel special to be rich anymore. Right. But a million dollars is still the, it's still, I don't know. I don't know that it doesn't feel special. I think white Lotus broke your brain. Daniel Crosby came on our podcast and he said, Ben is right. Michael is wrong, which should be coming out soon. That was a good fun talk on money. All right. This is interesting.

Travel talk. This is from Kyle Potter. He says, all three of the nation's largest airliners are charging some solo passengers higher fees than groups of two or more, sometimes significantly higher. So they looked at it and they said Delta was charging as much as 70% more for a one passenger ticket instead of two. So they're tapping into the price discrimination on business travelers. So they said going from Charlotte to Fort Myers for one passenger is $422 this fall.

The same amount for two is $266 a piece or even less for basic economy. So... Can I say something? I'm not bothered by this. This is...

This isn't a lot. I think this makes sense. It makes it cheaper for families to fly. As a person with three kids who's paying for five tickets, I am all for this. As a business traveler. Oh, I wasn't even looking through that lens. I'm just saying like, is this price discrimination or is this like how businesses work? You buy in bulk or in this case you spend whatever it is. You get, you pay less. That's, I don't know. I'm not outraged. No, this totally, I'm not mad at this either. It actually makes a lot of sense. And guess what?

The business travelers will still pay for it, right? This is just how a lot of businesses operate. You buy more, you pay less. It's called economies of scale, I believe. So Ben Thompson had a deep dive on the ESPN streamer on Stratechery last week. And he talked about how it's going to cost $29.99.

a month for ESPN and they're going to bundle it with Disney plus and Hulu for $36 a month or something. Um, and I think there's going to be some, and he says like, you can put Hulu live with ESPN plus, plus Disney plus like $83 a month. Like that's,

And then he kind of looks at this like, are we actually better or worse off than this? And he's looking at this from the perspective of a consumer or the sports people or the entertainment networks. Wait, hold on. Better or worse off just financially? Just the experience of it. And he's saying, listen, the cable providers are way worse off. He said this is a disaster to them. Like because you have to acquire customers.

And then you're paying commissions to Apple or Amazon. And he said, on the other hand, for consumers, way better off. You can subscribe, unsubscribe. He was talking about how, listen, it stinks because I think the worst part about it is you used to be able to just flip channels on commercials because there's so many commercials. But now I guess you just go on your phone. So I just think, yes, it's a little bit more of a pain in the butt if you have to have

Peacock and prime and YouTube TV and all these other things to watch all the NFL games or whatever. But as a consumer, I just think it's no contest. The access to stuff we have now is just light years ahead of what we had in the past. Even if you can't flip channels a little quicker. Okay. I'm a hundred percent with you.

Uh, who would go back? Not me. I love it. Am I paying more? Probably. Uh, is the, is the quality and the options a million times better? Yeah. So yeah, I mean, it's a bit of a pain in the butt, but whatever, nothing's perfect. So I am way happier with the lineup. The number I never grew up. This is to me, people always ask me, what's a small thing that you thought was rich growing up? Yeah.

Well, before that, I, we were never an HBO household. If we had a friend who had HBO, I thought, oh, they are the wealthiest people on the block. Right. You asked me, how did I not watch Sopranos? Because my, my, we couldn't afford, I mean, seriously, my mom, I had to catch up on it. Um,

But that's the thing. The amount of access to, because I would watch movies on USA. We'd rent them, you know, from Family Video. But the number, the access to the amount of movies we have these days on streaming is my 1990s brain would break being able to have that much access. It's unbelievable. Agreed. What's your self-help book thing here? I remember last week I was, I went on a bit of a rant on self-help. And I think I was pretty clear that, or maybe I wasn't, but

It's no knock on the consumers of self-help. It's just some of the merchants really grinds my gears. Help yourself before you help others. But anyway, it's funny because later that day, or maybe the next day, I listened to a podcast. Patrick O'Shaughnessy had this guy on, Graham Weaver, who is...

like almost every guest that Patrick has on, a wildly impressive, successful person. And it was funny because he was saying that early on in his childhood, he didn't grow up with a lot of money, but he discovered self-help books and it changed his life. Okay. It has to be one out of a hundred or something, right? That it works on. No, I don't know about that. I do think that for some people it is super helpful, but anyway. All right, Ben, I want to talk about

trailers. So as I've been returning to the movies lately, I can't, you can't avoid trailers. Although I guess I could show up late, but I was worried. So I am a huge naked gun, Leslie Nielsen fan. In fact, on this episode about 20 minutes ago, when I went to the bathroom, we had a little bit of a naked gun moment. Did we not? We did. So the naked gun,

is my favorite movie from childhood. It's the first time actually might've been Caddyshack the first time, but either the first or second time that I remember like laughing beyond control that I couldn't like control my functions, like my stomach hurt. Um, so I was nervous. I am nervous about the new, the new one with Leslie Nielsen and I've been avoiding it, but I finally saw the trailer in the theater and I got to say, um,

I'm cautiously optimistic. I like the, I like they're doing a throwback to the original. I kind of thought it was just a complete remake spinoff. It's not, there's, there's some throwbacks in there, some references. Okay. You said Leslie Nielsen again, it's Liam Neeson. Oh, my bad. Similar names, but yeah, I, I'm kind of, I'm kind of worried about it too. That that's, I feel like that's kind of sacred ground.

So, all right, I'm all in on the new Jurassic Park. I know the last one, really the last two, but especially the last one was an absolute crime against humanity. I'm all in on the new one. I can't wait. Yeah, but here's what's going to happen. This happens every Jurassic Park. The first one is going to be awesome. The second one's going to be, eh, it's okay. And the third one's going to stink. That's the cycle of Jurassic Park movies. The first one is going to be good. Fine with me. Skip the third one. Second one's probably going to be okay. You watch Crazy Stupid Love?

Oh, I did watch Crazy Stupid Love. So it's, you know, it's interesting when you see memes for the first time that are well trodden in the cultural lexicon. Like Crazy Stupid Love has a lot of memes in it. Holy moly. Yeah, it does. The Ryan Gosling look where he does this thing. Yeah. So, okay. I was very confused. Now, I won't spoiler a movie that's 15 years old, but I was very confused for the first half of the format of the movie. I was like, what, why is this happening?

How do these stories relate in any way? And then, of course, the reveal. I loved it. I had so much fun. Wasn't the reveal the best when they all get in a fight in the backyard? Oh, so you're going to spoil it. You're going to spoil it. Spoiler alert. I loved it. Lindhagen. Hagen. Yeah, that's a good one. I loved it. All right, let's talk about... Ben, I have to say, I think you were right. You were very bearish on The Last of Us. I actually enjoyed the episodes post-killing of Joel, but...

I didn't hate the finale as so much as I just don't think I care about season three. No, I thought if you're a TV critic, you say penultimate episode. That felt like a penultimate episode, not like a second to last. It was the way it ended. I was just like, wait, that's it? I thought it was- So let me ask you, are you going to watch season three? Are you jumping ship? I mean, no, we'll probably watch, but-

I needed to be in some of those meetings. You're part of the problem. I am part of the problem. You always talk about people complaining on the internet. You're going to complain about The Last of Us and then watch it? Shame on you. I know, but why would they not kill Joel at the season finale of the end of second season? Why would they not have that be the cliffhanger? Yeah, so that's a fair critique. All right, I was mildly down there.

No spoilers. I was mildly down on your friends and neighbors, even though I enjoyed the heck out of the show. I just didn't like love some of the choices they were making. I thought when it got a little too serious, I was like, whoa, whoa, whoa. And this is a fun light show. That's not what I signed up for. You could nitpick that show if you wanted to. Yeah. I very much enjoyed the finale.

Which is credit to them. That's hard to do. I like the finale. All right. I thought the show got better as it went on. I thought the last four episodes were all great. Again, I'm not going to nitpick this show. There's a lot of plot things where you go, wait, why? But I love this show. I thought it was so entertaining. I thought the finale was great. They set it up perfectly. I really, really like this show. You know, the nitpicking, I guess sort of the plot, it's not besides the point, but

I was watching the last episode. I said to Robin, I said, hey, wait, who killed Paul? And she was like, what do you mean? We don't know. That's what we're trying to find out. I was like, oh, did we fight? Good thing you're paying attention. I watched two streaming only movies this weekend. One of them was Mountainhead on HBO. Have you heard about this one? I heard it was very bad. Okay, so it's the guy from Succession made it. And if you're a very online person, you probably get some of this movie, but it's...

It's about a bunch of tech billionaires and them being really out of touch. And they come together for a retreat in a mountain house and they're all friends and there's inside jokes. And they do a really good job of satirizing and skewering the fact that these tech people only care about the, like, I'll be honest.

I'm a little worried about the morality of AI and how these tech behemoths are going to handle it. I don't trust them to think about humanity when they're creating these things. I'm a little nervous. And they do a really good job of that. Other than that, though, it's not worth your time. I'd give it a 5.4. Okay. Did you see Mission Impossible? No, I didn't yet. No. No. Three soccer games this weekend. I'm a soccer dad. No time for movies.

Understood. And then I watched Nona's on Netflix. Did you watch this? The new Vince Vaughn one? I, I, uh, it was, it was just slow. I, I, I fell asleep after 20 minutes. It was slow. It's watching. It's no, it's like a, kind of like a, uh, my big fat Greek wedding kind, like that kind of movie. Vince Vaughn isn't very funny in it, but it's just a feel good movie. It's one of those that's like, uh, I don't know. It's a 6.2.

And it's, it's should have been a streaming only movie. I'll leave it at that. Like it was kind of sentimental way too long, but not bad. And then the only other thing I got is I did finish the town finally, or the studio you asked me to do. And then I met Bellany was on it, which I listened to his podcast. I listened to the interviews. Hang on. How great was Cranston in the finale? Yeah. Brian Cranston is, he was, he was very good. So that make you laugh. But so Seth Rogen and Evan Goldberger created the show and have worked together forever run the town.

And I thought it was funny that they said, they did the awards show one and they said, listen, studio executives, as rich and powerful as they are, they really do want to be thanked. Like that's a real thing that people have asked. Will you thank me in your acceptance speech? And I thought about this from the perspective of,

leadership positions and companies. I remember someone told me this early in my career, like, listen, people want the responsibilities and they want a better job title and they obviously want to make more money. But if you just say thank you or give someone like a pat on the back and say job well done, half the time, that's all they want is just to be recognized. So I thought that was good. Like I thought that was good career advice. Like people, sometimes people just want to hear that they, they see you doing, seeing them doing a good job and just let them know about it. Cannot agree more. I thought that was, that was interesting.

All right. I got two more. I watched on the airplane. By the way, just credit to Delta, all the credit in the world to Delta. Their movie game is so phenomenal, always. Way better than the other ones. So I watched Novocaine, which is a very forgettable but fun, violent movie with Jack Quaid. And I raw dogged it, Ben.

I had no idea what it was about. Didn't read the description, but Jack Quaid is one of these people that can't feel pain. Ah, okay. And so I had no idea where it was going, but, uh, I kind of like him.

But it went somewhere. It was fun. Do not watch this on your couch. That's not the setting. It's a throwaway, violent movie for the airplane, okay? And then lastly, I think you told me about this. I finally listened to Larry David was on with Dana Carvey and Spade on Fly on the Wall. And Dana Carvey is so goddamn funny. And to hear Larry just beyond the ability to stop himself from cackling,

I mean, what a talent Dana Carvey was. The young people don't know about him, but he was one of the absolute stars of SNL in, I guess, the early 90s. If he came out today, I think he'd have a way bigger career somehow. They would have figured out a way to get him something on streaming. Yeah, he'd be as big. The impressions that he does and the range, he's brilliant. Really, really, really brilliant. Yeah, he should have been in the YouTube era of the YouTube social media era. Yeah. Okay.

Uh, pre thanks to everyone who's coming out to the live show in Chicago tonight. Can't wait. It's going to be fun. Um, what else do we got? Uh, and thank you. I'm excited to meet our future employee. So reach out to us if you think that what's so funny. No, that's good. You're thinking positively. We're going to get someone who's going to fill this role for us. You got it. Um, and, uh, speaking of thanks, we don't say it enough on the show. Thank you, Travis, for hanging back and producing the show.

Thank you, Duncan, John, Daniel, Nicole, Sean, Rob, Keith, Graham. We miss anybody. That was like your acceptance speech. I'm sure someone is going to be mad that you, uh, you didn't thank them, but, and thank you to the, you, the listener. We always appreciate our audience. Um, I love the emails that get us that understand our line of thinking, our line of humor. And we, I feel like we get a lot of those. So we should come animal spirits at the compound news.com. We'll see you next time.