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cover of episode Is flipping a coin really the most fair way to decide something?

Is flipping a coin really the most fair way to decide something?

2025/4/14
logo of podcast Who Smarted? - Educational Podcast for Kids

Who Smarted? - Educational Podcast for Kids

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播音员
主持著名true crime播客《Crime Junkie》的播音员和创始人。
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播音员:抛硬币作为一种决定方式,历史悠久,应用广泛,但其公平性并非绝对。从古罗马的“船或头”游戏到现代的“正面”和“反面”,抛硬币的文化内涵和实际应用都发生了变化。抛硬币的结果并非完全50/50,硬币的物理特性、抛掷方式等都会影响结果概率。在政治选举、体育比赛等重要场合,抛硬币有时被用作决胜手段,但其公平性也一直备受争议。抛硬币的趣味性与实用性并存,但我们也应该认识到其结果的不确定性。 抛硬币的公平性问题,不仅涉及到数学概率,也与文化、社会等因素密切相关。在不同的文化背景下,人们对抛硬币的理解和应用方式也存在差异。例如,在一些国家,抛硬币被视为一种神圣的仪式,而在另一些国家,它则仅仅是一种娱乐方式。 总而言之,抛硬币作为一种简单易行的决定方式,在许多场合都发挥着作用,但我们不能忽视其内在的不确定性和局限性。在需要做出重要决策时,更科学、更严谨的方法或许更为可靠。

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Psst. Hey, smarty pants. Pretend you're at an ice cream parlor getting dessert. There's just one problem. There's so many delicious flavors, you're having trouble deciding what to get. Can I taste cookies and cream? Ooh, and strawberry swirl. Ooh, and mint chip. And chocolate cherry banana. Say you even narrow it down to two. Hmm, it's either fudge or brownie.

Or chocolate chocolate chip. But let's say you can only have one. How would you choose? Go ahead, call out some answers. Uh-huh. Uh-huh. I heard a few of you say eeny, meeny, miny, moe. Well, that could work, but it takes a while and you're already holding up the line. Come on, kid, hurry up. I'm trying to get some ice cream here. What else? Oh, rock, paper, scissors is a good way to decide something if you're playing with another person. But not so great here.

Aha! I heard someone say it. Why not flip a coin? Heads, vanilla fudge brownie. Tails, chocolate chocolate chip. Heads, vanilla fudge brownie, please. Finally! Great. Would you like that in a cup or a cone? I think I need to flip again. Ugh.

Coin flipping has been around for over 2,000 years, yet it still remains one of the most popular ways to decide between two choices. While it's mostly used for settling simple decisions or deciding which way to go... Heads we turn left, tails we turn right!

Flipping a coin is also used in professional sports, politics, and it was even used to decide the name of a major U.S. city. Whoa. But when did coin flipping first start? How is coin flipping used today? And what is the probability or chance of a coin landing on either heads or tails? Heads, it's a whiff of science. Tails, it's a whiff of history on... The Smart Ad. The Smart Ad.

Who's Smarted? Who's Smart? Is it you? Is it me? Is it science? Or history? Listen up, everyone! Smarting! Lots of fun on Who's Smarted?

Hey, Smarty Pants. Trusty here with a special mission for all the Smarty Pants listening. But unlike a top secret mission, this mission requires you to tell everyone. That's right. Your job is to spread the word about Who Smarted so we can keep growing and bringing you awesome new episodes. To qualify for this mission, let's play a little game. Who do you know that would love Who Smarted but doesn't listen to the show?

Got someone in mind? Great. Question two. Pick one. Make a plan. Stick to it.

And best of all, complete this not-so-top-secret mission. I'm counting on you, Smarty Pants. The more people you tell, the bigger we grow, which means a lot more smarting for you. Okay, Smarty Pants, let's see how well you were paying attention. How long ago did coin flipping first begin? Did you say over 2,000 years ago? Nice job. But where? Why, it's where many things began back then. Ancient Rome.

And it started with a game called Navia Aut Caput. Smarty Pants, can you guess what Navia Aut Caput means? Is it A, heads or tails? B, ship or head? Or C, cross and pile? If you said heads or tails, sorry, you're thinking more of modern coins. The correct answer is B, ships or heads. That's because ancient Roman coins had a ship on one side and the emperor's head on the other.

However, if you said C, cross and pile, you would be correct in medieval England, where coin flipping was known as cross and pile because coins had a cross on one side and a hammer, another name for a pile, on the other.

Nowadays, we know coin flipping as heads or tails. The reasoning behind the name is pretty simple. Heads refers to the side of the coin with a person's head on it, and tails refers to the opposite side. No, not because there's a tail on it, but because tails is the opposite of heads.

The coin flip game can be played two ways and can be played by one or two people. If it's two people, one person flips the coin into the air while the other person calls heads or tails. If the person calls out heads and the head side lands face up, that person is the winner. But if it lands on tails, the other person wins.

If you're playing by yourself, or you're trying to decide something, you might assign something to heads and something else to tails. In that case, you're flipping a coin to let fate decide the answer. Hey, smarty pants, let's play our own game of heads or tails. I'll flip a coin, and if it lands on heads, we'll continue smarting, and if it lands on tails, I'll sing a song about belly buttons.

Alright, here we go. I'll flip the coin in 3, 2, 1. Oh, it's heads. Sorry, Smarty Pants. If you were hoping for a belly button song, you'll just have to wait.

Okay, so you've learned when and where coin flipping started, but what are some ways coin flipping is used today? Well, in countries like Canada, the Philippines, and the United Kingdom, coin flipping is actually used as a tie-breaking vote in political elections. That's right. If the two leading candidates have the same number of votes, they flip a coin to see who wins. Well, would you look at that? I've pulled ahead by a tail.

Believe it or not, coin flipping has also decided elections in the United States. In 2013, a coin flip was used to elect the mayor of Albion, Idaho. And in 2006, a coin flip decided the winner of the Democratic primary for a seat in the Alaska House of Representatives. Of course, some of you may be familiar with how coin flipping is used in modern sports.

Excuse me, trusty narrator. Uh, yes, guy wearing a black and white striped shirt? Could I borrow a quarter? A quarter? Is it for the vending machine? Nope. I'm on my way to work, and I'd be in big trouble if I showed up without one. You need a quarter for work? Are you a quarterback? Ha ha, good one. But no, I'm a referee for the National Football League, or NFL for short. Ah, of course. That explains your shirt and the whistle.

I'm assuming you need that quarter for the coin toss at the beginning of the game? That's right, narrator. Since 1892, a coin has been flipped before every National Football League game to determine which team starts with possession of the football. Normally, referees use everyday quarters, but for the Super Bowl, they mint custom commemorative coins from gold or silver for the opening coin toss. Ooh!

Smarty Pants, true or false? Football was the first sport to use a coin toss at the beginning of the game. Did you say true? Incorrect! Please don't touch my whistle. Sorry. The first sport to use a coin toss was actually cricket. No, not that kind of cricket. Cricket is an English sport that uses a bat and ball kind of like baseball.

Starting in 1744, coin tosses were the official way to determine which team bet it first. Today, you can find coin tosses in a variety of professional sports, like soccer, tennis, Australian rules football, and volleyball. Don't forget basketball!

I don't remember seeing any coin flips at a basketball game. Do you, Smarty Pants? That's because coin flips are only part of the NBA draft. Back in 1966, the National Basketball Association, or NBA, introduced coin flipping into their draft system. The worst teams in each conference would flip a coin to decide who was given the first overall draft pick for that year. Seems fair, right?

It wasn't. In 1984, the NBA banned coin flipping and introduced a lottery system after several teams were accused of purposely losing their regular season games in order to have the worst record and become eligible for the first pick coin flip. Deciding the fate of a basketball team is no joke. But can you imagine flipping a coin to decide who would be the first person to fly an engine-powered airplane?

Well, that's exactly what the Wright brothers did. In 1903, in the town of Kitty Hawk, North Carolina, Wilbur and Orville Wright flipped a coin to see who would attempt the first airborne flight. Wilbur won the toss, but during his first attempt, he crashed after only a few seconds. Don't worry, he was okay.

Three days later, Orville would successfully pilot the airplane over 120 feet, giving him the title of the first person to fly an engine-powered airplane. Sometimes it pays to lose, but other times a winning coin toss can literally change the course of history.

Smarty Pants, can you guess which U.S. city's name was decided by a coin toss? Is the answer A, Portland, Oregon, B, Boston, Massachusetts, or C, Coyne, Iowa? If you said C, Coyne, Iowa, sorry, that's not it. But it is a real city with about 200 people living in it. And if you said A, Portland, Oregon, you're right.

In 1845, pioneers Asa Lovejoy and Francis Pettigrove flipped a coin to decide the name of their new Oregon town. Asa Lovejoy was from Massachusetts and wanted to name the new settlement Boston. Francis Pettigrove was from Portland, Maine. So it's no surprise he wanted to name the new town Portland. They decided to make it a best of three flips contest. Heads, one vote for Portland. Tails, that's one vote for Boston.

Heads, I win! Welcome to Portland, Oregon. Keep it weird, dude. Fiddle sticks, I should have known. Heads always wins. Smarty Pants, have you ever heard someone say heads always win or tails never fails when it comes to flipping a coin? These coin flipping expressions seem like just a way to justify picking your favorite side of the coin. Is it actually true that one side of the coin is more likely to land facing up than the other? The answer, after this quick break.

Have you ever asked questions like, I wonder who invented toilets? Or, why do dogs wag their tails? Then have I got the thing for you. The Brains on Universe, a family of podcasts for kids and their adults. My name is Joy Dolo, and I host a funny and fabulous history show called Forever Ago. We explore the history of everything from bubblegum to how we sent messages before cell phones.

I live in New Zealand, and the Maori people there use smoke signals to send messages. There's also Brains On, a science show where we answer kids' questions like... Do plants sleep? And... Why do some people have asthma? And on the debate game show Smash Boom Best, you get to judge which is cooler, chocolate versus cheese, or Spider-Man versus Batman.

What is Batman's personality? He's a rich guy. Find Forever Ago, Brains On, and Smash Boom Best wherever you get your podcasts. Or head to brainson.org to learn more.

Hey everyone, Trusty here. One of the things I love about hosting Who Smarted is getting to answer all those amazing questions from curious smarty pants. And that's why I'm excited to tell you about another show that does exactly that. Our friend's podcast, But Why? A podcast for curious kids. Have you ever asked something like, why does the wind blow? Or does skyscrapers actually scrape the sky? And you weren't quite sure of the answer?

Well, but why has you covered? They've answered questions from over 16,000 kids across 90 countries, and they're not afraid to tackle any topic, even the gross ones that make grown-ups squirm. I mean, they have whole episodes about poop and making paint from spit and rocks. How cool is that?

Their team gets real experts to answer real questions from real kids like you. So if your family loves learning interesting stuff on Who Smarted, you'll definitely want to check out But Why. You can find But Why wherever you get your podcasts. Now back to Who Smarted. Okay, smarty pants. Say you wanted to win a coin toss. True or false? One side of the coin is more likely to land facing up than the other. The answer is...

True. Whoa. According to Percy Diaconis, a math professor at Stanford University, there is a natural bias that occurs when coins are flipped, depending on which side was facing up at the time of the flip.

For example, if a coin is flipped with heads facing up, it will land back on heads approximately 51 out of 100 times. That's not a crazy advantage, but it does mean the probability, or likelihood, of flipping a coin and correctly guessing the side it lands on isn't exactly 50/50.

Try it for yourself, smarty pants. Decide whether you're going to start with heads facing up or tails facing up. Then flip a coin 100 times with that side facing up first. And keep track of how many times the coin lands back on its original side.

Does the same hold true for crosses or piles? Or ships and heads? Yes. Also, how you flip the coin also affects the probability of it landing on its original side. The same study found that coins, when flipped, don't just move end to end, but also in a circular motion, like a tossed pizza. A pizza! If you want to increase your odds of a coin landing on your side, try spinning a penny instead.

That's right. A spinning penny will land on tails roughly 80% of the time. That's because the head side of a penny is slightly heavier than the tail side due to the portrait of Abraham Lincoln on the penny's head.

Four score and seven flips ago, most came up tails. When the penny is spun, it usually falls face down. So if you call tails, you'll win. That doesn't feel very honest, trusty narrator. You're right. Sorry, Honest Abe. Hey, I want to hear your belly button song. Let's flip for it.

Heads, you don't have to sing. Tails, you do. Uh, sure, but I gave that referee my last quarter. That's okay. I used to be a wrestler. I can flip you for it. Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa! Ugh, I landed right on my face. Heads, you win.

A double shout out to Yamna and Mena in Cardiff, Wales. We hear you love the funny jokes and made Who Smarted part of your morning and night routine. Now that's what we call dedication. Thanks for smarting with us every day.

This episode, Coin Flipping, was written by Brad DiPrima and voiced by Katie Lou Chastain, Adam Tex-Davis, Kim Davis, Max Kamaski, and Jerry Colbert. Technical direction and sound design by Josh Hahn. Who Smarted? is recorded and mixed at the Relic Room Studios. Our associate producer is Max Kamaski. The theme song is by Brian Suarez, with lyrics written and performed by Adam Tex-Davis. Who Smarted? was created and produced by Adam Tex-Davis and Jerry Colbert. This has been an Atomic Entertainment production. Who Smarted?