We just invested in a sociopath
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We're about to make a big investment in a company run by a complete sociopath. In a way, though, you kind of have to be, right? It's not the 90s when founders just needed a great idea and an office in their garage.

That's so Mag7. Today, there's a new breed of founders and leaders. We're calling them sociopath CEOs. And sociopath might be a little bit of a strong word, but a bunch of the traits fit. They are impulsive, egocentric, risk-taking, maybe a little antisocial and manipulative. They're sensation-seeking and fearless. And today on Dumb Money, we're going to tell you how we see sociopath CEOs winning and what we're investing in and how you can use it to help build your own portfolio.

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This is Dumb Money Live.

Hey there, Dave here along with Chris and Jordan. We are Dumb Money. Welcome to Dumb Money Live. Quick reminder to smash the like button for the almighty algorithm since we are on a special day and time. Go ahead. It just takes a second. And once you've done that, we can get on with the show. Chris Jordan, while we're waiting for all those likes to come in, we need to congratulate our community that invested in NVIDIA last week. That was a perfectly timed trade, perfectly timed Dumb Money show. The stock has bounced back about 15% since the show.

Chris, I'm sure your options are, I don't know, a multimillion dollar capital gain for you this tax year. You know, I always say that it only takes one great investment a year to be in like the top 0.001% of investors globally. And this is the perfect example. In what, like less than a week, an NVIDIA trade that I've now rolled over three times and looks like I might get to roll over one more time. We'll explain what that is.

Basically, with less than 5% of my portfolio value added 30% to my total portfolio, maybe more. But we also need to factor in that all of our stocks are just on fire. Tesla is up 24% in the last week. Apple, 6%. Palantir, 18%. Even Amazon, 13%. And the one that we just also keep harping on, Robinhood, 25% in the last week.

So it's actually, you know, NVIDIA has underperformed Robinhood and Tesla in the past week. Dave, I don't mean my NVIDIA position's up 30%. The trade I made in NVIDIA this week increased the size of my total portfolio by 30%. But like, if you can do that once a year, everything else is gravy. Like, I don't think people... That's really all it takes. Exactly. Exactly.

One chart. All right. So let's talk about the sociopath CEO. Before we went on, Chris, you were just saying that you realized that of all of the faces, the obscured faces on our thumbnail, you're invested in all of them already.

Yeah, so that's what I want to talk about. I have been the biggest skeptic on this company. I had an opportunity to invest in this company a year ago at like a third of the current valuation. And it was like, there's zero chance that I would ever even consider doing that. I thought it was completely ridiculous. And by the way, everyone knows this is a private company. And Chris, you brought this to me and my initial thought was also, this is definitely a pass.

the spin leader it has an insane evaluation there's an insane corporate structure we can talk about all of that do you want to talk about what the company is

Well, first I want to talk about the founder. Okay. Because all four of these guys are rumored, you know, people call them sociopaths. Sometimes we're not clinically calling them a sociopath. I don't know what. Some of the traits I rattled off some of the traits that define sociopath. We're going to take out the ones that are like criminal and that sort of thing. And just lean on the ones that have a positive attribute. Like, you know, they're, they're in ingenuity and they're, you know, willing to willingness to take risks.

Yeah. Can we call them positive sociopaths? I don't know. I don't know what they are, but I will tell you this. It takes a certain type of CEO in 2025 to break through walls and make things happen. We've learned this with big tech. These large incumbent companies just are not capable of

moving and innovating and just doing the things that need to be done. Everyone outside of maybe... Listen, of the public company CEOs, Elon is an exception. Yes. Who else? Clark. A Palantir. Absolute exception. And who else? He's in our socio plus category though. So... Should we start a sociopath ETF? Maybe me, Kevin, should do that. Okay. And then number three...

Vlad at Robin Hood. Okay. Those are really to take risks and break things before getting it perfectly right. They're not afraid of anything or anyone. They're not afraid of, of, uh, failure. And they all, I think all of them think they're building the biggest company in the world and they're going, they're going to do it. So there's one guy. What about Brett? When you put, uh, when you put Brett into this also, uh,

Oh, at, uh, uh, no, I, I don't know. Well, I don't know. Maybe, maybe I don't, I don't know. Um, I didn't, I didn't think to put them in the thumbnail, but I, yeah, he kind of qualifies. Well, you know, one other thing that all these guys do, they're all, they're all overly, by the way, there's some negative people out there that it didn't go so well for like Theranos, right. And some other, so, uh,

Well, there's a difference, right? When it crosses over to the legality portion of sociopaths. There's a fine line between selling and lying, right? And I think that's... Well, it's really fine, Jordan, because what I've noticed is a lot of the top

kind of entrepreneurs, CEOs tend to all share a habit of faking it till you make it. Now, how much are you willing to fake it? Sometimes it works in your favor. Sometimes it blows up. But when it works in your favor, it works. I should have put the Theranos chick on our thumbnail. Theranos or what's the guy with Nicola? Trevor Milton? Oh, Trevor Milton. Yeah. Thought about Michael Saylor. Saylor.

Well, it's working for Saylor. Yeah, it can work, it can not work. And the one we're talking about today, the one that we're investing in, we think it's going to work. Even though it's insane. He might be the craziest out of all of them. He might actually be the most aggressive and most ruthless out of all of them. Now, you might hate this person. And let me just say something.

I do not particularly like all of the CEOs I'm invested in. And I don't need to. Because all I care about is that person's ability to actually push forward and build value for the company and ultimately me. So we're obviously talking about Sam Altman, right? This is a guy that even before he really...

Even before he's really experienced any type of extraordinary success at the level of any of the other people we're discussing, this guy was talking about raising trillions of dollars. Had you ever heard, even Elon wouldn't have come out a year ago like Sam Altman did and said, yeah, we probably need to raise $5 trillion. We're like, this is a work in a hole. We just need to raise more money than any private company has ever raised in the history of the world.

He's kind of, he's a little bit quiet. He's not as like outspoken about his plans, but man, I'll tell you, I think, first of all, let's just frame this opportunity right now. I'm going to tell you right now,

that the entire world is missing something. They're missing something, which is the biggest thing in our lifetime related to robotics, but because they're consumed with tariffs, they're consumed with Trump, they're consumed with macro and Jay Powell and all the geopolitical stuff going on around the world. But do you know what? We are having a Facebook moment. We are having a Google moment. We are seeing the birth

of an industry that I believe will be infinitely larger than anything else we have seen in our lifetime, the industry of intelligence. No, I realize that AI could be the largest industry ever in history. And it's kind of like having the opportunity to invest in the early industrial revolution.

But then you also have to balance that out with, is it maybe like we're investing in the beginning of the dot-com bubble and we're just hoping that OpenAI is the Amazon and not the pets.com? We'll get to that later, but let's just talk about the sector right now. Because do you realize that we have a multi-trillion dollar company in Google that is just sitting on top of the industry of search marketing? So let's balance out. Industry of search marketing, industry of intelligence, right?

The intelligence industry, I'm not going to use AI anymore. The intelligence industry, here's my thesis. Every single company on earth, every government on earth, every education institution on earth will be sitting on top of an intelligence model that is powered by one of the world's very few intelligence gatekeepers. In addition to that, I also think that every human on earth

for the most part, at least those living in the first world,

will be utilizing an intelligence-based agent that will essentially help them with every aspect of their life. I don't think this is 10 or 15 years away. I think this is just a few years away to where imagine an industry that essentially sits beneath every human and every company and every government and every financial institution. That is what we're looking at right now. How big is it?

You love to rip on Google, though. I think I've seen some people responding to us in comments and on X where Google, you say, is sitting on top of search advertising, and that is 80% of the revenue, but they're also sitting on top of entertainment.

comparing YouTube to being a Netflix, a streamer. YouTube is presenting at the up-fronts, and it has for years, the same way the networks used to be relevant. Well, they're also sitting on top of Gemini. No, no, no. That's what we're talking about.

They're on top of a bunch of things, but right now, all of their revenue is advertising. It's not even just regular advertising. It's, for the most part, direct marketing, which is a huge industry. Don't get me wrong. Monster industry. But I get your point. Your point is that the intelligence industry is going to eclipse the advertising industry.

I'm not just saying it's good. I think eclipse is the wrong word, Dave. I think the intelligence industry is going to be exponentially, maybe larger, exponentially larger than the direct marketing. And how, how large, how large could the largest intelligence company be? And is there room for more than one at the top? I know we've talked about this being a, you know, a $10 trillion company, but

Can there be a $10 trillion company in OpenAI and XAI? You're going too far. Just the industry. I think this industry will result in multiple $10 trillion companies. A multitude. I think NVIDIA is going to be one of them in the public market. I think that there are companies involved in robotics like Tesla that will be another one of them, okay, for robotics. Because, listen,

Here's the thing. That's a piece of the industry, right? That's embodied intelligence. So that's the embodiment of intelligence. So that's included here. But I do think that there is room for more than one foundational model. The gatekeepers of compute is as long as one thing remains. And there's a one very important sticking point here. Everything we're talking about in this show is contingent upon

upon the scaling laws staying intact for over the next few years, meaning that the more compute, the better the intelligence. As long as you still require a meaningful amount of compute to get the intelligence, then the gatekeepers of compute, okay, will ultimately be

reap the majority of the rewards from this new industry sector and including the chip makers like NVIDIA, obviously. Right. Yeah. Well, and that was my initial reaction is why would I want to invest in OpenAI that is one of many when I could invest in NVIDIA that is going to be powering all of them? I'll tell you why.

Because, you know, NVIDIA is like my number one position. That's nuts. But it's not mutually exclusive, right? NVIDIA is a $3 trillion company, Dave. And you just heard me talk about the fact that it could be a $10 trillion plus company. And I assume it will if they execute and the scaling laws continue.

At which point you make a 3x return. And if at the insane valuation that OpenAI has of $300 billion, that same 3x return would mean that OpenAI has to be a top 10 company.

OpenAI has potentially a 10x additional return. As big as Apple or what are the Microsoft and what's the other one? Oh, NVIDIA. Yeah. Those are the three biggest companies in the world. And you're saying that OpenAI is going to be in that top three list. Yeah. So here. Unlikely number one. Here.

Here's my thesis on open AI. Uh, you already heard my thesis on the intelligence industry. Uh, but my thesis on open AI, I was so anti open AI, but I've been tracking data on it for months. And I saw something the last few months that completely blew my mind. Um, as more of the world started to kind of get into the fold of utilizing an LLM, uh,

ChatGPT became number one in the app store. But what's really interesting, it's not like ChatGPT became number one and Gemini was number two or three and Grok was number four or five and Anthropic was number seven. As of today, ChatGPT is number one. Gemini by Google is number 47. Grok by XAI is number 57. Anthropic...

I believe is like 90 something. So, and by the way, this is not linear. So the difference in downloads between number one, chat GPT and just the other random number two company on the app store, which is threads could be meaningfully larger. Like it's not a linear relationship. So on that same note, on that same note, are you ready for this guys? We haven't, cause I'm what I'm about to say. We have never experienced in all of humanity.

This is the fastest growing tech product in history. There are rumors that are unverified. There are rumors that from March to April, rumors... That's one month. ChatGPT grew, and even if this is off by a factor of two, it wouldn't even matter. They grew from 400 million users to 800 million users. Even Sam Altman said he was adding a

a million users an hour at one point a few weeks ago, they could be over a billion users globally right now. And one little anecdotal thing, Dave, real quick on this note. I had my son in the car on Friday

with one of his buddies. And I said, what percentage of the high school kids in your school are utilizing an LLM? And they're like, obviously a hundred percent. Everybody uses it all day long for literally everything that they do. And this is of course, every middle high school college student everywhere in the world right now. And I said, okay, so tell me which one they're on. And they were confused. They're like, he's like, what do you mean? Which one? I was like, which one are they using? He goes,

what do you mean? Chat, which chat GPT, like which version? No, which Ella? He goes, are there others besides chat GPT? He goes, which model are they on? Oh, one or Oh four. But here's the best part. His buddy in the back seat said, no, it's not a hundred percent. He goes, there are some tech kids. Uh,

who use a couple of the other ones, it's probably 95 plus percent on ChatGPT. So understand that amongst that generation, they don't even, most of them, almost all of them don't even know that there is another AI outside of ChatGPT. But the hard data that I've been following the last few months shows us that 80% of the world that is utilizing, uh, uh,

AI is on ChatGPT. 80% and they are growing market share because if you look at the data of Grok, Grok spiked when it got put out on X and then it dumped, okay? If you look at the data of Gemini, they are still picking up share but not picking up share from ChatGPT anymore. They're picking up share from the others. So the other 20% is literally broken out between all of the others and the most interesting part

of that is that the early adopters are the only people that generally even know about any of the others. So now that we've grown beyond the early adopters, almost every regular person that's actually downloading AI for the first time, literally all they know is ChatGPT. So I actually think that over the course of the next six months, that ChatGPT

ChatGPT under OpenAI could actually approach 85, maybe even 90% global market share of what will be the largest industry sector that we've ever witnessed in all of humanity. Okay? So, and that's just hard work.

Now, eventually, Dave, do I think they're going to retain that once Google finally figures out how to convert people from Google to Gemini? No, I think Google is going to own a piece, maybe 20, 30, 40 percent. But I do not see that.

Any scenario right now, unless Sam Altman does something crazy, I cannot see a scenario where ChatGPT ends up with less than 35% or 40% global market share consumer of AI. And we'll talk about the B2B part next. But that is astonishing, guys. We've never seen this in our life, and no one's talking about it. No one's talking about it. Megan also is...

She, I think, talks to ChatGPT more than she talks to me now. She's always telling me, oh, I was just asking ChatGPT about that the other day. It's like she refers to it as if it's a friend. And now that they have the history feature, it knows her. And it's like, I feel like that is the stickiness factor that she will never switch away from ChatGPT, even if a better and smarter algorithm comes along.

And did you hear Eddie Q a week ago with Apple say that search traffic on Safari was down for the first time in 22 years? Why chat GPT usage? I've been asking every single person I come into contact recently, do you use AI? What do you use? And how much do you use Google relative to what you did at one point? And not all of them, but...

a surprising number of them. And I just had coffee with a guy that was an older guy, right? And he told me he stopped using Google. I was like, now I've been tracking Google. The only time I use Google is when I have a very keyword specific search that I don't want to write into a sentence. But I have started just putting those exact terms into ChatGP to see what happens. And it works too. So it's like,

But Dave, you're a guy that spent, like you've thought about this intensely over the last 25 years as like a consumer tech guy. You spent so much of your career at Yahoo and working on consumer tech adoption.

Can you talk about inertia and the power of inertia? It's something that we always tend to forget, even going back to like VHS and Betamax, like the power of inertia is so extraordinary that you could actually end up having a better model, meaning that

I actually think that Elon and XAI is going to get so aggressive as long as they're able to raise funds. I think he's out raising massive funds right now too, that he might end up having one of the best models. I think Google is going to have one of the greatest models in the world, but that might

actually not even matter because of the inertia and the memory factor that you just mentioned, Dave, combined of just consumer habitual, like, like how we, how we work. And it's a little messy. I, you know, when I did my taxes this year, I had a chat GPT opened and XAI open. I was, uh, and

And I found that Grok was actually more useful and gave me less. It lied to me less. Chachaputita was just making stuff up. And then I would question it. It was like, are you sure? And it's like, oh, no, you're thanks for telling me. You're so right. The O3 hallucinates like crazy. It's the worst.

but Grok did a great job. 4.0 doesn't. The 4.0 doesn't hallucinate almost at all. I was using 4.0. It was so wrong so many times, but that's where I was fact-checking again, using them against each other, which is kind of right now the only way to do something that's critical like that. But when it comes to that inertia you're talking about, that early adoption, I remember that I was at Yahoo for 10 years from 99 to 05.

So kind of the rise, the peak and the beginning of the fall. I left, you know, right after Microsoft tried to acquire Yahoo and the founders were all giddy about how they were able to, you know, fend off Microsoft. And I was like, that's the biggest business mistake ever. And that was when I started looking for my next career. But.

At the time, and I don't have the exact stats, at the time, Yahoo Mail was like the most important thing to Yahoo because it was the thing that once you're on there, it's almost impossible to leave. Even though Gmail was a better product, Yahoo Mail still had more traffic, at least at the time when I was there. It was still more used, still had more active daily users than Gmail, the better product.

You know, one thing before we ask the engineer his thoughts here, I want to preface this. So you know this, Dave, because I, and Jordan, you too. So like part of the way that we're investing in OpenAI is I have this, we basically got an, we bought an allocation and we're basically filling it with our friends, family, and just people that we know. We're inviting people that we know to like,

to come into the fund. And I'm talking to a lot of guys and they're so stunned. And I share the data with them. I literally share the data and they're so stunned to see it because they all think that, wait, what about Grok? What about Anthropic? What about this? What about that? So there are two types of people in the world. There are people like us that, yes, we are aware of everything. We're either tech guys, we're finance guys, we're out there online.

on X every day. We're aware of all the new stuff. We're trying all the stuff. And to us, it's like kind of like a semi-level playing field because we're hearing about all the stuff almost, almost equally. But as soon as you kind of leave, leave that world, which is most of the world, it's like 97, 98% of the world is not like us on X, right? They don't even know.

They don't even know what Grok is. They don't even know what Grok is. I think the integration into a product actually has a lot to do with it. If you're an X user, that Grok logo is on every single post, and I click it all the time. When I just want a quick fact check, I just click the Grok button. I don't even type... Then you can add Grok and then have it explain who you... I don't even do that, but I see a lot of people doing that, and I see a lot of people asking perplexity. The only interaction I ever have with perplexity is reading its comments on X. I've never...

well, in testing I have, but in my daily life, I have not used Perplexity or Claude or any of the others. I can see like Microsoft's Copilot is going to be built into business applications. And if you're already doing something in their applications, using that makes sense. But

We are, I'm all bought in on chat GPT for all the reasons. We have, we, and I say we, meaning we, the entire community of investors, right? Because like all of us investors, all of us tech guys, all of us like guys that are really into business, we have an inherent bias from what we're reading and seeing and being exposed to. And it's not normal. And I love it because I feel that that bias is...

is why people are so skeptical of OpenAI at this crazy valuation because they are not seeing what's actually happening right now, which is not just the next Facebook, not just the next Google. It's actually...

way faster growth, way more aggressive growth. And the actual amount of usage that they're getting on this stuff is unbelievable. It's taking over people's lives after just a few months of using it. And I could only imagine what's going to happen in Jordan. I know you're a little bit deeper into the tech

than we are when it gets to full agentic AI. And Jordan, I want to hear what you're like, what your prediction is for how quickly or how long it's going to take to get to a point where we will

all have agents as opposed to going on there. We have more of agents doing things in the background all the time that kind of know our daily habits. We're interacting with an agent that's doing things behind the scenes and more proactively interacting with us rather than us having to go to chat GPT to put in commands. I don't know how... I'd like to get your take on when you think that is viable because that is...

is going to be the ultimate turning point where if you're not, if you don't already have market share and people start working with their agents, forget it. You're not going to switch agents easily from one platform to another in a few years. So Jordan, what's your take, man?

What's your bias? Yeah, I mean, look, so to me, just the way that everything sits right now is that OpenAI is the normie AI, right? It's the normie LLM and things like Perplexity, things like Gemini. People that I know that are actually using LLMs for real stuff are not using OpenAI. There are some because they're all APIs, right? That you can then...

swap one out and try out another. And people are developing things in parallel across a bunch of different AI. Can I ask you a quick question on that? I'm curious if you have an extreme bias there as well, because I've actually had the privilege of seeing all the companies that OpenAI is powering. Yeah. And I was astonished. I wonder if you're speaking more of like a rogue young founder, because like creating new things,

on the others where the, it seems to me like the big companies, I'll give you one example. One of the hottest companies in the world right now and very controversial, uh, the $24 billion duolingo that announced during earnings a couple of weeks ago that they were moving from, uh, they were basically moving away, uh, from having

actual language specialists interacting to going AI, right? And that's super controversial and there's like a whole movement against them right now. But I think they might be on open AI. But like, I think the big companies...

Sam is capturing a ton of them in terms of the big apps that he's powering. But I do think it's more evenly dispersed. It's not like with Consumer where he has 80%. Yeah, I think Consumer, like I said, it's the normie way to go for LLM is you just fire up OpenAI and you get moving. And it's the Kleenex right now for LLM.

individuals to use an LLM? I had a guy that is a CEO of a big med tech company. And he told me that their company is basically at the end of the day, long-term, just a sales agent for OpenAI. He's like, we have layers and layers of software that eventually the AI will do more and more because they're an AI company. And he's like, but the reality is OpenAI is like

And powering everything that we're ultimately packaging and synthesizing for our area of expertise, because we know more about our sector, obviously. Yeah, look, I mean, this is like a big area of imagination in that are you going to have these big software platforms?

with menus and you click around and you interact with your data um with like a big it's like a big sql application right like a car list or uh any you know like a salesforce or or is that data going to sit somewhere and then you interact with that data using an llm right and i think that right now the idea is that why would you have these big complicated interfaces where you're paying developers tons of money to create these very custom applications

When at the end of the day, you really just want to be able to interact with your data. And so do these LLMs become that software set that sits between you and your data instead of some big custom application? So Jordan, take Duolingo, for example. Yeah. And by the way, the big thing about Duolingo, this is, by the way, the most wild. But the deals with Duolingo, that's an early use case that makes a ton of sense because it's just language.

Right. That was not anymore, though. That's the funny part. They're getting into everything now, all the education stuff. But here's here's crazy. Ready for this? Duolingo monthly active users have increased five X from 2020 to 130 million active users. But here's the amazing thing. They launched 148 new language courses in just the last year using generative AI for context.

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So in one year, they develop more courses on top of AI than they could build themselves in 12 years. Now, my question to you about Duolingo is move forward two or three years. Okay. If you want to learn Spanish, which I don't even know why you would at that point because we're all going to have translators and our AirPods is up. But let's just say you want to learn Spanish. Okay. Or any other thing on Duolingo. Why would you pay Duolingo money?

13 bucks a month, 25 bucks a month. When your agent who knows you better than anyone in the world, your agent knows your hobbies, your agent knows that you're going to Hawaii next week. It knows how you like to speak already. It already knows. Yeah. Well, right now Duolingo has an interface that's- It's fun. It's a game. Specialized for learning language, right? And they- How hard will that be for the

But come on, how hard will that be for AI? No, no, no, no. But you're saying, but that's in the future versus what we have now. So like in the future, perhaps, yeah, perhaps anything. But is it perhaps or is it guaranteed? That's what I'm trying to say. Like, why would you pay another monthly fee for a software layer that I think would be far inferior because your agent is going to know how to teach you Spanish? Yeah, and that's one of the things. I don't know. I don't know because I, you know...

do people think to go to it to learn Spanish or to learn whatever? Does it do as good of a job? Does it have the gamification that Duolingo's interface has? You know, does it have all the reminders built? I mean, like Duolingo does a really good job

of that specific job of teaching your language and making it fun. Now, can that agent get that good? We'll see. I don't know. There's no reason that it couldn't. Yeah, the agent can definitely be that good. The question is, do people even think to go to OpenAI? Do they think that, oh, do I want to ask strategy PT? Hey, come up with a plan over the next year for me to become proficient in Spanish and just talk to me occasionally when I'm interacting with you anyway, and

and remind me that I need to do a Spanish lesson. Now what Duolingo has done, and they've developed what, like, you know, let's say they've developed 15 languages from scratch by hand, and they want to do 15 new ones that they haven't offered yet. I would think that's a perfect job to say, okay, well, instead of paying somebody to do it, we're just going to have a language model

you know, learn what we did and then copy it for these new languages. And then we can create a curriculum based on the work that the LLM did. I think that makes perfect sense. I think the $20 trillion question, can open AI become the universal acid that dissolves all other companies? Maybe. Maybe. But even if it's, even if it can't,

I think there's still a huge opportunity that is very clear. I think they have the clearest path to become a $5 to $10 trillion company over the next decade, just based on every human, every company, every education company, and every government in the world building everything that they do on top of a foundational model and open AI having a meaningful piece of that market, whether it's a third or two thirds. That's going to boil down to is if you can take

a corporate database, pump it into chat GPT and then ask questions to it. And it gives you as good of answers as your dashboard does. Right. That sounds like Palantir. Yeah, sure. But has Palantir gone and replaced all the software that a company uses? I don't think so. Are they just being like a dashboard that sits on? Dave, wouldn't you think, I believe, I believe, I believe like Palantir is,

is like the middle layer that enables companies to directly use a foundational model. Yeah. Palantir, what they do is they create that ontology, right? So they, but it's a very consultative process where they have to sit down with your folks and basically they need to know what your data does or what they could do and label it great ontology and then put it into their system and then it becomes useful. Right. So that, but that's, that's a big step. Um,

It is, but it sticks. You remember Salesforce? Salesforce was a three to four year onboarding. Palantir is 60 days. But here's what Salesforce does. Will the ChatGPT version of like, will the next Palantir or Palantir itself take that 60 day window and make it 30 days and then make it 15 days? And then it's like, here, just upload everything.

to this one form and we'll sort it out and we'll try to understand it and we'll ask you a couple of questions and then we're like shipping Palantir 4.0 to your, for your business. In an AGI world, maybe, but what, you know, what I love about

Palantir. Listen, I think long Palantir short Salesforce is such an interesting trade because Palantir allows companies to not have to use Salesforce. You can use a Salesforce agent or you could do it yourself with Palantir, get right on a foundational model and not have to go through a

You have to realize these companies aren't developing in a vacuum. Everybody is building foundational models and or going to sit their software on top of someone else's foundational model. So how much of the B2B business do you think OpenAI gets versus the other models?

Oh, I think it's meaningful. I think the B2B business, it's hard to envision a world where OpenAI doesn't have a 20% market share just based on the fact that they are going to have the money, the capital to vertically integrate, right? So they're doing everything to bring the biggest cost efficiencies. So think about Amazon. What are they trying to do right now? Is that one of their use cases that they're working on?

Absolutely. Yeah. So Sam's talked about this. You hear Sam talking about building his own chips. You hear Sam talking about raising trillions of dollars. Stargate project, right? Like they want to have control all the way through, right? Because ultimately he sees eventually the cost of AI nearing the point of the cost of energy. And what else is Sam interested in?

He's directly invested in these mini nuclear companies. So right down to the energy level, to the compute level, to the chip level, this is what... When we use the word sociopath, we're probably using the wrong word, but...

This type of thinking of domination, this is similar to Bezos and his approach to what he took to e-commerce, right? Literally owning all of logistics, every piece of it. Or what Rob Fier did with oil and transportation and the industrial revolution.

Yeah, you're right, Dave. And listen, Bezos also owns the advertising medium now. So you want to promote your product, you do it inside of Amazon. It's literally every piece of that is integrated. And Sam Altman basically wants to do that with the intelligence industry. Now, this industry is too large for one player to walk away with it. But with the amount of capital that he has...

has now and the leadership position that he has. And by the way, I'm going to say something else. I've heard now through four separate people that are really in the know.

that OpenAI has been accumulating the best talent in the world, that he is getting the best engineer. People are leaving the incumbents in droves, like the best of the best. They all want to be at OpenAI, which is really weird because if you remember a year ago when all the controversy was going down, that was one of my knocks against OpenAI was this Sam Altman guy is kind of, he's just,

I don't know. He's like a dark cloud over him. All the controversy, his co-founders leaving him. And that was one of my big reasons to like just completely pass on OpenAI, get some shares of XAI instead, because I I'm a, you know, Elon fanboy. And, you know, a lot of our commenters are saying the same thing. Elon will beat Sam.

Well, I don't know. Listen, beat him. So, question. When you say beat him, I actually think that Elon is going to move quicker and more aggressively the way that he did with his data center. I think Elon...

I think this race to AGI is Elon with XAI sandwich at GPT and deep mind. I actually think that deep mind and Elon have a better shot of hitting AGI first, but it could be Sam with open AI, but that's,

only beating him in one thing. And I think everyone's going to hit AGI around the same time. So I think winning in this space is not about getting to AGI 60 days, 90 days, four or five months quicker than the next guy. I think winning in this space is about distribution and adoption. And it is undebatable. Growing market share and holding onto that market share.

What? Growing market share and holding onto that market share. Yeah, exactly. Like I actually think Elon could actually win when it comes to the actual aggressiveness on the tech side. But I don't necessarily think that that's going to be winning the same way that, listen, my favorite social platform by a mile is X. Love it. I live there. I live on X 24-7.

But if you look at the monetization between X and meta,

or TikTok, it's not even a competition. They're not even in the same industry. Okay. That's how much better those guys are at creating a platform that can monetize. Now, maybe Elon does that with X. I don't know, TBD, but let's be just, let's be kind of intellectually honest as investors. And I, listen, I have a lot of, I'm a Tesla guy. Like I'm a,

You know that. Tesla's one of my biggest, like, theses, like, the next 10 years. But you have to be intellectually honest as an investor and not be like, I don't want Sam to win. I don't want Peter to win. I also want Elon to win. And I would also like to get shares of XAI. And I've already reached out to one of our contacts that we've bought off-market shares. Oh, no, I haven't gotten. Oh, you want an XAI? I didn't know that, Dave. I said no to XAI, but I can get you in right now if you want in.

My friend is doing, he just invested. Let's see if there are better terms. What? We'll see who has better. I think he has really good terms. Yeah, but you're still coming into OpenAI with me, right? Yeah, yeah. Okay, Jordan, I already texted you this morning. Are you investing with me in OpenAI? No, but just do it on the show right now. On the show? No, I'm not going to, no. Why? Because they're going to go public sometime soon, so I'll just wait until their shares are public.

Oh, that's a huge mistake. I don't think so. I really don't think so. A lot of the valuation that they've got versus what I... Wait, wait, wait. Are you going to wait until they go public at a trillion or a trillion and a half? I think they're going to go public at a trillion dollars. Okay. Did you see the data I shared with you on OpenAIR? In the net, by the way, there's always risk. There's always lots of risk. But if you look at the data, the trajectory that they're on, and they're about to get $40 billion, okay, that can just continue, continue, continue.

I don't even know what to say right now. Why would you, if they're capable of going public, then you know you're paying three to four times what you can get them at right now. You know you are. You don't even know where they are now? Look, I don't agree with the valuation that's been set by the private market. So I'd rather wait and see what the public market price is at. And that's not going to be what the initial public offering is. You let it marinate in the market for a few months and we'll see.

what it's really worth. That was my initial thought too. It's an insane evaluation that really just makes no sense. And if I can get, you know, some X AI at 40 billion versus 300 billion for open AI, but then I'm like, okay, what is the likelihood of them IPO-ing at 300 billion? No, they're definitely going to be IPO-ing higher than that. And...

A bunch of people agree with Jordan, and that's what I love about you guys is, Jordan, you are so different. I love that level of balance because, like, in a million years, I'm so stunned I thought you were going to say yes. Look, and here's the thing. I can be wrong, and I'm fine with being wrong. I can be wrong.

Let's say, here in my mind, the worst case scenario is that the public figures, okay, well, it's worth $600 billion. And I lose out on a 1x if we invest at like a $300 billion valuation. I'm okay with that, but I want it to marinate in the market for a little while and people to actually think about what is this thing really worth?

I'm going to say right now that if scaling laws hold and if the global economy remains relatively stable, I am predicting, and I don't like to predict the future, but I'm predicting that OpenAI IPOs within two years at a trillion dollar or more valuation. That's my prediction. There's never been a company that IPOs...

anywhere close to that. Jordan, there's never been an industry sector that even has touched anything like the sector of intelligence. Nothing has come even remotely close to this new industry. So I agree with you. What you just said is true. Yeah, it is true. But there's an anomaly happening right now. And the one thing we know, we'll go back to Black Swan,

uh, my favorite book is that we just don't know how to deal with these types of anomalies when there's no historic correlation. And I think that's the reason why so many people like myself, even up until very recently when the data was right in front of my face and I, and I just had to deal with it was so anti open AI, these high valuations, it didn't make any sense to me. And now it makes sense, but I do respect where you're coming from Jordan. And I hope you're wrong, but,

You might think you're right. I just hope you're wrong. Dave investing in it? I am. Yeah, you are. Okay. I was originally not investing in it. But then I, you know, basically it's a FOMO trade for me. See, and that's... I don't know what was going to happen. FOMO is not an investing thesis for me.

The strong feelings, you know, my initial instinct was to pass because of the insane leader, because of the evaluation, because of the corporate structure. I mean, it's like ever-changing. Sam Altman was fired, then brought back. They had a capped profit, then they don't have a capped profit. They had a non-profit, now they're a for-profit, but the non-profit is in charge of the board. There's so many things that are just like wonky about the company, but...

It is open AI. It is chat GPT. It is the only one that like you say that the normies are using. I use, I use grok way more than I use chat GPT and I find it better, but I know that I'm not normal. And that would be like me, you know, me staying with a PC when I, you know, maybe it's better for things, but I love max and I'm, you know, it's the whole Mac PC argument. Um, I want to give that's a FOMO.

They are the market leader. They are in this largest industry in history. I think they'll be a $10 trillion company. But a $10 trillion company is still only a 3X. So that's kind of like the hit or miss there. No, no, no. 30X, Dave. 30. 30X. 30X. Wait, what's 30X? Wait, what are you talking about? At $10 trillion, it's 30X. Yeah. No, it, yeah.

Okay. So that's good. Let's go. IPO at $10 trillion? No, I don't think... I think $1.48 will be there. So that's the thing. Like, if you're going to... You think it's going to go that far and I miss out on the first one to one and a half X? Anybody goes, I'm fine with that. Because I don't want to lock my money up in a...

Private company, who knows what happens between now and then. That was my initial thought, too. And then Chris got my FOMO going. I want to answer Rich Huang. He says, Chris, it's definitely a momentum trade for you. It's absolutely not a momentum trade. I don't think it's a momentum trade for Chris. Chris has spent a lot of time thinking about this. This isn't like a fly. We've been talking about this for years.

Weeks and months. Yeah, I've been obsessed with this. I've been almost equally obsessed with this trade or investment as I am with robotics. You know, robotics to me is just an extension of the intelligence industry that I think is underappreciated even more so than this.

But it's not a momentum trade for me. I know there are a lot of things that can go wrong in this space. The most important being scaling laws, if something happens there, or the economy at large, or other things. But I truly believe that this company has the clearest pathway to

Uh, besides NVIDIA, besides NVIDIA and maybe Tesla, if they can get, if they can prove it, that robot is actually durable, uh, and is actually scalable and is, uh, has a high uptime, which they haven't proven any of that yet. Uh, those are the three companies that come to mind that I can actually prove.

feel $10 trillion, not in 10 years either, like before 10 years. Now, Chris, let's have your best prediction for what OpenAI will do. What will the valuation be on IPO day? And then what happens the week after that? Because we know it either shoots way up or shoots way down.

The IPO at $1 trillion, come out of the gate at $1.5 trillion, and I have no idea what happens after that. But $1.5 trillion in my head, I think, is very doable in the first week. Right. We've hurried into $1.5 trillion now.

If I invest per day, I think I think the IPO will be set at around a trillion. I think they actually go out and do yet another private fundraise between now and the IPO. Why do you think Sam Altman was in the Middle East this last week?

All right. So I think the last fundraise that happened at 300 billion, I could see him raising another 20 to 50 billion to patch him over to the IPO. I think the IPO actually happens before two years, but I think two years is kind of my timeline for an IPO for OpenAI. So and by the way, I think by then a lot more people come around to my way of thinking and like he wasn't that crazy.

uh including jordan but we'll see like i said i hope i'm right well i don't think it's crazy to invest like i you know for me the decision for me is probably 70 30 not invest there's 30 of me that wants to invest in it at this that's cool stage so it's not like it's not crazy i don't think it's crazy i'll give you a little credit jordan uh didn't you you did invest in nvidia i thought this last week right yeah yeah are you still in no i sold it yesterday

Okay. I mean, it's up another five, but I mean, that is. And if it drops down, I'll rebuy it. Jordan, were you in options? That was equity and a little bit of options. Nothing crazy. Okay. So like I was, I've been rolling my options, rolling, rolling, rolling up the higher, cheaper strike prices. And the more I thought about it last night, cause I'm like, this is just too good to be true. Like, this is just wild. I really started thinking about it.

And NVIDIA increased its pricing on all of its chips because of the China loss. Yet now, because of the Middle East deal, they're beyond capacity. So not only is NVIDIA now, I think, going to be secure with their pipeline going out like two years, but on top of that...

They're at a higher price point. So I'm telling you right now, Jordan, I actually feel exceptionally good about NVIDIA going into earnings on May 28th. And I don't want to let go. I don't want to let go. So in addition to my long-term NVIDIA position...

I think I might just continue with this leverage strategy rolling right into NVIDIA earnings on the 28th. As crazy as that sounds, I think the biggest issue people have with NVIDIA is too much too quickly, but that is really not a valid strategy.

That's not a valid reason. I mean, it kind of is, but eventually that, I mean, I think people just in general are weary because the NASDAQ is up 30% in like 27 trading days, which is never happened before. And so I think that's the, they're, you know, yeah. And just, that's why I sold just because it went too far too fast. We've never had an, a little bit of profit. So we never had an industry of magic before, but now we do. So,

So, I mean, think about going back 15 years of like, hey, there's going to be a new industry. It's called magic. And it basically does anything that any human could think of. And it does it in next to real time. Now, it's going to cost like a trillion dollars of compute to make the magic work.

But that's where we are. So what if someone told you that? Would you then say, well, I could see the NASDAQ breaking new records if there was an industry of magic that was going to fix every problem, cure every disease, basically know how to run every government, basically make every company 20 times more efficient. Like, yeah. So think about it under that context. And now it doesn't seem quite so crazy.

I'm just going off today. I'm sorry. You can also just like, you know, put your money in a ETF and just ride it up as this new industry takes over. It is the dust.

Oh, man. I love it. Okay, guys, I have to go off on a 2 o'clock. Jordan, I know you have a ton of stuff today, too. Oh, by the way, real quick pitch for our next episode. I have a few stocks that I just think are screaming shorts at some point in the future, not like right this second. And I think I would love to talk to you about them and maybe do an episode on companies that AI might dissolve. He's so...

That quote I had about AI, about ChatGPT basically dissolving, dissolving, being a universal asset and dissolving all other companies. Yeah, that could actually just be replaced by ChatGPT. By the way, my strategy is just to like,

Follow the data on those companies every single week. And as soon as I start seeing the cracks, like remember, this is going to be the smaller companies. This is not like saying open AI is going to destroy Google. No, this is like a big one. Like a big one. It's a lingo example, but other smaller companies that could easily, like if they would consider rewriting all their code using open AI, why not just like have consumers do it direct on AI?

There you go. There you go. I, I, I'd love, maybe that could be our next episode. All right, guys, I got, I got to hop. All right. That's it for this one. Thanks for watching. Uh, this was a huge episode, by the way, we have 12,000 people watching live right now, more than 10,000 on X. So thank you all. You're not, if you came here from somewhere else and don't like already follow us on X, you should do that. Uh,

Our names on X are Dave Hanson, Chris Camillo at Jordan McClain and at Dumb Money TV. And to the over 2,000 that are still with us on YouTube, thank you for watching as well. That's it for this one. We are Dumb Money. We will see you next week.