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cover of episode 18 meditations in an emergency: 大选 takeaways

18 meditations in an emergency: 大选 takeaways

2024/11/9
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德国圣诞市场袭击者,沙特阿拉伯裔心理医生。
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本期播客并非对美国大选结果的政治分析,而是对结果对播主个人影响的反思。播主首先预测卡玛拉·哈里斯将赢得大选,并认为特朗普会输,这基于他对中间选民的判断。 然而,播主更深入地探讨了身份政治的局限性。他认为,尽管身份政治的初衷是好的,但它作为解释世界、分析问题和采取行动的方式,在很大程度上是失败的。身份政治的根本逻辑是人人生而不平等,但它忽略了不同不平等之间是否存在差异以及某些不平等是否比其他不平等更严重的问题。身份特权在不同领域的存在会阻碍人们对他人痛苦的感知。在身份政治的语境下,不同群体之间往往无法理解彼此观点的合理性,如同盲人摸象。 播主还指出,身份政治导致了底层男性与中产/高层女性之间的叙事对立,难以调和。每个人在不同方面都拥有特权,每个人都试图推动自己的叙事,导致冲突。身份政治放大了叙事斗争,阻碍了不同群体之间的团结。 播主对福山《身份政治》一书及其对盖尔纳观点的引用持批判态度,认为民族和阶级叙事比身份政治叙事拥有更强的解释力和凝聚力。在理想状态下,难以确定哪些社会变量最重要,也无法证明解决部分不平等问题是否会让整体情况变得更好。从道德哲学角度来看,阶级应该是一个不太重要的歧视依据,因为人们可以通过努力改变自己的阶级。在公共政策和慈善捐赠方面,不同身份的优先级难以确定。国家仍然是公共政策和选举制度的基本单元。制造虚假的对立,例如要求在女性和少数族裔之间选择哪个更重要,并不能解决问题。如果一种意识形态无法团结其内部成员,那么这种意识形态作为实践策略可能需要重新审视。 播主分析了民主党在身份政治上的失败,认为其策略导致支持者分裂,而共和党则能够团结支持者。身份政治作为分析和实践的路径是失败的,因为它无法团结选民。成功的政治家能够识别并利用选民的各种情绪,而不是仅仅依赖身份认同。民主党在身份政治上的失败在于缺乏解释力、说服力和凝聚力。民主党需要改进与选民的沟通方式,并关注选民的具体痛苦,而不是仅仅关注抽象的特权。 播主意识到自己所接触的信息渠道存在偏差,这导致了对现实的误判。对美国大选结果的误判,以及大众对此缺乏直觉,是一个巨大的现实检验。缺乏普选制度可能在一定程度上避免了政治性抑郁症。媒体和周围环境营造的同温层,导致了对现实的误判。媒体和名人的言论,对于许多选民来说,并不重要。媒体和民主党人往往以一种自以为高贵的方式来解释选举结果,而忽略了现实。媒体和网民在预测选举结果方面存在误判。 播主批评了媒体和网民对现实的认知不足,以及缺乏对政治策略的理解。特朗普拥有强大的拉票能力和对现实的利用能力,但并不能拯救美国。美国面临着不可能三角:维持国内循环、提供高工资和低物价,以及避免剥削其他国家。美国经济的根基是开放,不可能与外界完全脱钩。民主党输掉选举并非因为其品格高尚,而是因为其能力不足。 尽管选举结果令人沮丧,但仍不应放弃对现实的解释和对未来的指导。面对法西斯主义的崛起,需要积极的应对,而不是消极的悲观。播主对美国大选的误判,部分原因在于对美国政治的缺乏了解以及自身信息渠道的局限性。播主认为,对美国大选结果的误判,部分原因是由于对美国政治的圣洁性的过度强调,以及对美国现状的误解,对美国历史的浪漫化想象,以及对古典政治理想的过度追求。 播主认为,当前的时代是一个“末法时代”,充满了谎言和娱乐化的政治。当前的政治环境充满了混乱和娱乐化。播主仍然相信民主制度和宪政,但同时意识到需要对民意保持谦逊。播主强调了对他人观点的宽容和理解的重要性。在现代社会中,人们不可避免地要与不同观点的人相处。 播主建议,如果可能,可以构建自己的小社会,远离那些让你讨厌的人。即使选择避世,仍然需要对社会保持一定的关注和投入。播主认为,最重要的能与他人相处的品质是宽容,甚至是博爱。需要意识到自己对他人也有剥削和压迫,并反思自身观点的不正确性。所有人的观点都是重要的,彼此之间并非天然仇恨。如果不意识到这些,社会将永远无法变得更好。 播主认为,哲学只有在实践中才有用,绝对的个人主义是兽性的。他批判了那些脱离实际、空洞的知识分子,并赞扬了那些扎根于工业系统、积极反思的知识分子。他反思了自身的生活方式,以及其所创造的价值。他认为,与其怀念过去,不如热爱当下,因为当下才是我们拥有的一切。人应该爱彼此。 播主最后建议政党多走群众路线,与选民进行更有效的沟通,并努力理解和沟通,而不是简单地灌输观点。许多中国人讨论美国大选,实际上是在表达对社会公平正义的看法和对社会现状的不满。在现代社会中,人们不可避免地要与不同观点的人相处。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why does the speaker believe Kamala Harris will win the US presidential election?

The speaker believes Kamala Harris will win because the majority of middle voters will likely reject Trump, viewing him as a 'no' option. However, the margin of victory is expected to be small, reflecting a trend of increasingly narrow election outcomes.

What is the speaker's critique of identity politics?

The speaker argues that identity politics, while well-intentioned, has failed as a practical strategy. It often creates divisions rather than unity, as it focuses on differences rather than commonalities. The speaker highlights that identity politics struggles to address the layered inequalities within society, leading to further fragmentation.

How does the speaker describe the failure of identity politics in the US election?

The speaker notes that identity politics failed to unite voters, particularly within the Democratic Party. While Republicans successfully consolidated diverse groups under a single banner, Democrats fragmented their base by focusing on intersecting identities. This led to a lack of cohesion and electoral success.

What does the speaker suggest as a solution to the failures of identity politics?

The speaker suggests that political strategies should focus on capturing the specific, personal pains of voters rather than abstract identity narratives. They emphasize the need for parties to communicate effectively and build coalitions around shared experiences, such as being American or a worker, rather than dividing people based on identity.

What is the speaker's takeaway regarding the US election and its impact on their worldview?

The speaker reflects that the election revealed the existence of people with fundamentally different views, which their information channels had previously shielded them from. This realization was a significant 'reality check,' highlighting the deep divisions in society and the need to engage with opposing perspectives.

How does the speaker view the role of media in shaping perceptions of the US election?

The speaker criticizes the media for creating an echo chamber that reinforced their belief in a Harris victory. They argue that media narratives, while not wrong, were irrelevant to many voters, particularly those who ultimately supported Trump. This disconnect between media portrayal and voter behavior contributed to the election's outcome.

What does the speaker suggest as a way forward for political engagement in a divided society?

The speaker advocates for greater empathy and understanding in political engagement. They suggest that individuals should reflect on their own privileges and biases, and strive to connect with others on a human level. This approach, they argue, is essential for building a more cohesive and just society.

What is the speaker's final reflection on the importance of loving one's own time and society?

The speaker concludes that people should love their own time and society as much as they love their country. They argue that the present is the only reality we have, and it is essential to engage with it constructively rather than idealizing the past. This mindset is crucial for addressing contemporary challenges and building a better future.

Chapters
本章探讨了身份政治在21世纪自由主义政治中的失败。作者认为,尽管身份政治倡导者的初衷良好,但其未能有效解决不同身份群体之间的冲突,反而加剧了社会撕裂。
  • 身份政治未能有效解决不同身份群体之间的冲突
  • 身份政治的实践路径彻底失败
  • 媒体和网民对现实的认知存在偏差

Shownotes Transcript

全体注意必须紧急停止引用茨威格。

(01:29) 必须超越身份政治

(16:28) 必须明白他人存在

(23:58) 必须走出昨日世界

(30:18) 必须(稍微)爱(一点儿)

开玩笑的kids don’t do this at home (29:59)

Some references:

“The quintessential condition of 21st century liberal/progressive Democrat/Labor politics: a couple of fundamentally good guys imagining a more just world that their core political philosophy has absolutely no ability to bring about.” Freddie deBoer, Liberalism Cannot Produce Outcomes Satisfactory to Liberals, https://freddiedeboer.substack.com/p/liberalism-cannot-produce-outcomes) (02:07)

Daniel Finn, Two Centuries of the National Question, https://jacobin.com/2023/02/two-centuries-of-the-national-question) (07:27)

福山《身份政治》 quoting Ernest Gellner, Nations and Nationalism (08:06)

陈嘉映,《救黑熊重要吗?》,https://www.sohu.com/a/496864704_121119350) (10:22)

“It is one of the happy incidents of the federal system that a single courageous state may, if its citizens choose, serve as a laboratory; and try novel social and economic experiments without risk to the rest of the country.” New State Ice Co. v. Liebmann (1932) (Brandeis, dissenting) (12:41)

“If the rule you followed brought you to this, of what use was the rule?” Cormac McCarthy, No Country for Old Men (20:56)

“I want to earn enough money I can get away from everyone.” DDL, There Will Be Blood (PTA, 2007) (33:13)

“右派注重自由,左派注重平等。而法国的口号是:自由平等博爱。”马克龙,2024 (33:56)

葛兰西《狱中札记》(34:55)

茨威格《昨日的世界》(36:11)

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