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cover of episode The End of the West and the Future of China

The End of the West and the Future of China

2025/3/4
logo of podcast The China-Global South Podcast

The China-Global South Podcast
AI Deep Dive AI Chapters Transcript
People
E
Eric Olander
专注于分析中国在全球南方的技术创新和影响的媒体人物和分析师。
F
François Godement
K
Kobus Van Staden
P
Pierre Pinhas
Topics
Eric Olander: 美国与欧洲联盟之间的关系日益紧张，这将对中国的地缘政治环境产生重大影响，迫使中国在更加支离破碎和动荡的世界中谨慎前行。 François Godement: 我没有预料到唐纳德·特朗普会采取如此强硬的行动，他正在多个方向上采取行动，这出乎我的意料。我们这份报告强调的是中国自身将要做什么，而不确定性在于美国和其他国家想要做什么。我们预计，如果美国同时撤回其对欧洲安全保护伞的部分具体承诺以关注中国，并将欧洲留给它自己采取行动，那么欧洲对强硬遏制中国政策的支持程度将会受到质疑。很难预测唐纳德·特朗普的行为，因为他可能会改变主意，他的顾问和随行人员的话也并不可信。如果中国面临一个分裂的世界，那么它就更容易采取行动，而不需要玩弄分化和统治的策略。 Pierre Pinhas: 中国对欧洲的策略是既要安抚成员国，又要应对欧盟强硬的去风险议程。乌克兰战争中80%的组件来自中国，这引起了成员国的安全担忧，导致成员国更倾向于建立双边关系，而不是发出统一的声音。 Kobus Van Staden: 在最近的G20外长会议上，中国主要关注其全球外交政策问题，例如与中东和北非国家进行协调，以及与印度的关系正常化。中国在G20外长会议上的表现表明，它将成为一个稳定可靠的伙伴，并暗示美国是一个反复无常的伙伴。各国都应该进行情景规划，以思考如何应对地缘政治变化，特别是中国崛起的影响。南非总统可能面临艰难的选择，例如在与美国的关系、金砖国家和“一带一路”倡议之间做出选择。

Deep Dive

Chapters
Rumors of AFRICOM's potential elimination are circulating, raising concerns about increased Chinese influence in Africa. The discussion also involves potential shifts in US-Europe relations and the implications of China's Global Security Initiative.
  • Rumors of AFRICOM's elimination resurfaced.
  • China appointed a defense attaché to its embassy in Niger, signaling increased security cooperation.
  • Increased Chinese police engagement in Africa, particularly in Nigeria, Kenya, and Uganda.
  • The Global Security Initiative is becoming more concrete in its actions.

Shownotes Transcript

U.S. President Donald Trump's decision this week to pause military funding for Ukraine and to align his government with Russia further widens the cleavage between the United States and Europe — effectively breaking what has long been known as "the West."

At first glance, many of China's Western critics will see this as welcome news, but it also means that Beijing must navigate in a much more fragmented and turbulent geopolitical environment.

The Paris-based global affairs think tank Institut Montaigne recently published a detailed forecast of the challenges that lie ahead for China over the coming decade. The report's authors, François Godement and Pierre Pinhas, join Eric & Cobus to discuss four scenarios they mapped out that could shape China's trajectory in this new era.

SHOW NOTES:

  • Read the Institut Montaigne Report: China 2035: The Chances of Success)

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