MacroVoices #457 Justin Huhn: The Fundamentals For Nuclear Keep Getting Better
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This is macro voices, the free weekly financial podcast, targeting professional finance, high net worth individuals, family offices and other sophisticated investors. Mro voices is all about the brightest minds in the world of finance and macro economics. Telling IT like IT is bullish er barish no holds bar. Now here are your hosts eric tows and Patrick season A.

Macrovoice is episode four fifty seven was produced on december fifth twenty twenty four i'm eric towns. Uranium insider newsletter editor Justin hung returns with this week's featured interview guest. We'll discuss the nuclear renaissance Justin s bottom call in the nearly year long correction in uranium mining, cheers fundamentals that will affect the sector in coming months and years and much more.

And on Patrick sassa with the macro o score board over week as of wednesday, december four or two thousand and twenty four, the december S P five hundred futures up one hundred and sixteen basis points, trading at six thousand and ninety eight as the market continues to press all time highs, will take a closer look at that chart in the key technical levels to watch.

In the post game segment, the us dollar index down eleven basis points, training at one of six thirty five continues, consolidate long as two year, has the january w to acute contract down sixty eight basis points, trading at sixty eight fifty four IT remains in a primary downtrend, but consolidating at a support line established over the last three months. Take a look at that charge in the post game and eric have the a inventory data. The january r bob gasoline down fifty one basis points, trading at one ninety four.

The february gold contract up fifteen basis points, trading at twenty six seventy six remains in a choppy consolidation after putting in its highs a month ago. Copper up ninety six spaces point, trading up for twenty. The uranium up thirty nine basis points to seventy seven fifty in the us.

Ten year treasury yelled down six spaces points, trading up for nineteen. Key news to watch this friday is the much anticipated jobs numbers, and next week we'll see the CPI and ppi inflation numbers and the monetary policy statements from the bank of canada and the E C B. This week's feature interview guest is uranium insider news letter editor Justin human ercan Justin discuss geopolitics, uranium and more error would just coming up as macrovoice continues right here and macrovoice dot com.

And now with this week special guest, here's your host, eric towns. And joining .

me now is uranium insider newsletter editor Justin hung. Justin has prepared a slight deck to accompany today's interview. Register users will find the download link in your research round up email.

If you don't have a research round up email, just go to our home page macrovoice dot. Come look for the red button above justice picture that says looking for the downloads. Justin, I want to start by giving you credit for calling the bottom of this massive uranium correction that we've seen.

You were at the W. N. A conference in london. You literally rushed back at the end of the conference to your hotel room knowing that the U. S. Markets were still open to first, uh, panic buy as much uh, uranium shares as you could get because you knew he was the bottom and then you made a video late at night from your hotel room in london saying, guys, this is that right here right now I really think this is the bottom and you nailed IT was like forty percent in a lot of your focus list issues up from there. So congratulations on that call.

I appreciate that. Thank you. Yeah, I was IT was a very stark contrast experiencing that, that conference with the backdrop of of the shares continuing in the slide and just absolutely horders sentiment being expressed on on social media.

So IT was IT. IT was relatively easy, but IT was easy because I was at the conference and IT was very, very clear that the market was getting IT wrong. And others are as a dangerous statement to make in the investing world, is that the market is wrong.

But you have those moments every once in a while, you can clearly see that IT is. And I saw that I was and thought I had to express that. So I appreciate that acknowledged.

Thank you. You are very welcome and it's very much deserved. So there's quite a bit this happen. We haven't had you on this program since April. I can't believe it's been that long.

The triple nuclear initiative had already happened when we had your last on, but the financing of triple nuclear that happened much more recently, a september twenty third, I think, of this year. And then we've subsequent to that at the top twenty nine conference, six more signatory countries signed on to triple nuclear. So they're up to thirty one countries now.

We've really seen a major shift in government's public attitude and also the the Green community is really come behind nuclear as the right way to accomplish basement energy transition you for for Green energy. So so many things have happened that are just so incredibly bullish, ed. And we've seen IT in the uranium mining stocks, especially the speculative issues, the the exploration issues, but not in the actual commodity of anything, were still down a little bit since that wa conference on the spot Price of uranium before we even dive into the slide deck.

What's the big picture here of you know is this what jeff kerry told this last week of just the market has to baLance present demand, not future demand. Why is the spot Price not reacting, especially when we've got a very popular e tf. That a lot of speculators go into in order to to try to get a position in uranium? Seems like spot is not driving the market higher. What do you make?

Well, I think one of the things that's important doing knowledges that the the spot market really what IT is, is a surplus disposal market. This is not the market where utility secure the bulk of their fuel requirements, right? So in uranium, of course, is not fuels the first step that the fabricated feels the last step of the fuel cycle.

But uranium is is the foundation, is the core element that goes through various processes before IT becomes fuel. Now the long term contracting market is where deals are done for twelve months delivery and and beyond, right? So spot market is twelve months or less settled for a purchase for a transaction.

But IT also is the market, the spot market that is the most transparent. And that's really saying something because it's not all that transparent, but you'll get Price quotes at least daily sometimes today depending on the service that you may not subscribe to, to get those Price quotes. But really, we're talking about negligible volumes in terms of the overall volumes that are actually transacted.

So unfortunately, that is what is visible. However, the term Price for uranium is up twenty percent year today, right? So for twenty twenty four, the term Prices has gone from, you know the high sixties all the way into the low eighties.

The spot Price started off the year right around ninety box that peaked out a one of six, and it's back down into the high seventies here. So while the spot Price has Spiked and then settled back, the term Price has continued to slowly march higher. And that's really the true indication of where this market is that spot Prices about the investor says, so that's what gets all the attention and all the talking points. But if we really look at the Prices across the field cycle, including the long term contracting Price for uranium, everything is in a very, very obvious and continued up trend.

And I just throw in my perspective, I don't know you to agree with this or not, but I think that for the uranium market, because it's something that institutional finance has not covered at all for years and years, I think the markets kind of dumb on this stuff. They're looking at the spot Price, what you just explain, which made perfect sense about it's really the action is all in the term market, not in the spot market.

I don't think most of the people that are looking at this are understanding that they're looking at the stagnant thought Price thinks not really go in any place when in reality, IT is going some places go on a big places. Would you agree with that? Yeah.

I would. I would. I mean, it's it's difficult, right?

Because investing in any other commodity, you're going to get much more transparency into the into the market. There's futures markets. You have way more transparency.

So foreign stor to see a month and print of of the term Prices that all they get for, for a thirty day period. That's just not enough. So the spot market certainly shows not only just that the surplus disposed on the trades are being made in the physical market.

I'm not saying IT doesn't matter. IT absolutely matters. But the real story of the trend of Price is in the term Price and that has martire. But yes, the spot Price also has become um intrinsically connected to investor sentiment. So and risk is on and you see the equity starts to move up and you see the sport, physically random trust start to trade close to and potentially even at or slightly breaching now then you actually see some physical market activity in expectation of spot coming into the market to do is buying. So the spot market kind of been linked to um the investors equities market and vice versa.

And and that's how you kind of get wrapped up into the investment thesis is much more exciting, much more transparent than the the boring and and infrequently updated long term Price or let alone the the a fuel cycle Prices as well, which are updated sometimes weekly, but um the monthly prentice for the long term iranian Price. So yeah, the investing market I would say really doesn't quite quote, quote get IT. But for Better for worse, that's the reality. This about Prices, what is visible. So that's what we all watch.

Let's go ahead and dive into the slide. I can talk about some of the longer term fundamental, starting with big tech embracing nuclear.

Give us the rundown on. So this is really snowballed since we last spoke kerk. It's been quite the trend of the making.

We identified this trend about a year ago, maybe a bit more than a year with expectations that simply the rising demand for electricity that in in many ways is being driven by the growth of data centers and the growth of A I specific data res that, that rising electricity demand would lead to higher cost electricity and would the risk the existing nuclear fleet. So that's kind like step one of the thesis of how AI and data centers are are a bullish for nuclear. And that is absolutely happen.

It's going to continue to happen, especially in the next states. It's still the largest market in the world for nuclear, and IT is currently and probably will be for the facility able future in somewhat of of an arms race with A I with china. So we think that, that is going to be very d risking to the existing we've also heard, of course, unless you live in a cave, you probably heard the same.

Um in september, he was announced that consolation energy, the largest nuclear Operate in the next states, has made a deal with microsoft. This is a twenty year power purchase, a agreement at Prices uh proportion dly you know two x pushing three x existing market for electricity to restart unit one a framing island. Amazon, of course, is supporting two S M R projects, one of the east coast, one of the west coast.

And they have made an investment into x energy of two hundred million dollars. There was just announced a couple days ago. There are investing in additional three hundred thirty four million for this first project google has secured to five and mega deal with caro's power, another advanced nuclear developer, oracle.

So all these multitrillion lion dollar tech companies are supporting nuclear. Now, oracle to build a gios scale nuclear power with three a small modulate reactors link together. And just today, literally minutes before we had record, eric meta announced they have released an rfp, a request for proposal for one to four gig ots of new nuclear, about twenty thirty.

So we've seen this enormous wave of tech companies recognizing the very obvious trend of a huge electricity demand and also recognizing that base load clean energy is the ideal source to be powering these things. Now we're going to see other electricity sources kind of pick up the slack in the near term because new nuclear going to take some time to get off the ground, especially in the states. So we're probably going to see and we are already seeing massive sales of gas turbines. For example, natural gas is probably going to be beneficial in the near to mid term, but nuclear looks like it's going to be a big, big winner with this trend for the mid to the long term.

Now I have a perspective that is completely subjective that I D love to get your feedback on. I don't think people get the significance of what these deals are going to mean for uranium demand.

And specifically, what I mean is I don't think people understand they know it's high tech, they know its next generation, they know it's it's generation for but in european, an Justine to the people who were looking at this, look at the caro's deal or the x energy deal and say those are both tasso fuelled reactors that that's a different fuel cycle. IT has a completely different set of requirements. Await a minute.

Lets look at sam altman investing in oak. That's a fast sodium reactor that depends on hyo fuel. We've got a major bottle neck problem with halo.

And even if we didn't have that problem, it's a fifty to one IT takes fifty times, is much raw. That's the youth. Rio, a yellow cake. Uranium takes fifty units of that to make one unit of halo.

Do people get those kind of things and understand that these new reactors are gonna require a whole lot more of both schools in order to do all of that greater enrichment and to produce hilo and so much more uranium? Or is IT just kind of like, yeah tech groser bian some nuclear? It's cool. I have the impression most of the market has no idea what the implications of the more advanced fuels are going to be in terms of demand.

I I would agree with you, I don't think the market understands as well. I also think that the market probably likely doesn't really think that this has near term implications for their investment thesis, right? So in which is which is generally kind of true even though we have seen already we've seen S M R demand.

So for example, g hattie's building b dr x three hundred units in ontario, canada and they have already put out our f peas for that uranium. So we're already seeing some S M R demand in the market. But yes, you're absolutely the correct.

The high essay low in the uranium takes much for feedstock to achieve that higher enrichment level. Um they go through fewer refueling cycles so that some of these advanced reactors can can run for five, ten, fifteen, twenty years on a single fuelling of this higher and rich terrelium. But no, I don't think the market fully understands the implications and I don't think the market will understand the implications.

And still until they start to see an actual pull on the physical uranium, dear, the demand from these projects. So this this is all well and good in its of course, it's a huge sign to see the big tech companies that have basically an endless amount of cash and need the electricity that are going to make this happen. So that's that's enormous and that's positive bullish.

But we have yet to really see the demand hit the physical market. And and a lot of times, investors, you know, a big theme of investing is trying to discount the future and trying to predict the future. And this is a smacking us in the face of what is going to happen.

But what hasn't happened yet is met ta, google, oracle, microsoft, amazon actually coming into the market and either via themselves securing the fuel sources for these projects or actually funding the projects and the project developers coming into by that fuel. So this hasn't happened yet in many ways. And so this is this is a future projection.

It's very positive, it's very bullish. But I don't think investors are group to truly quote and to get IT until they start to see the middle move in the physical market. And we will when that happens, is more difficult question to answer. All of these projects is advanced neutral. Nuclear projects are late decade at best, but we could see fuel demand, uranium demand coming to the market for some of these as our projects advances, nuclear projects, you within a two or three year period, we could absolutely see some physical market implications.

I definitely agree with you that it's late decade when IT all happens if it's realized. But i'm also going to add to that prediction that I think things are going to go a whole lot faster than most people assume. The AI data center demand is gone to keep growing.

The tech boys have lots of money. As you said, they also have the connections that are necessary in order to get things pushed through government. So I think what we're going to see is an industry that's used to everything happening at a snails pace.

Oh, we're going to get some new reactor design in the next thirty or forty years. Maybe it'll get approved. I think they're going to push these things through pretty quickly.

And by late decade, I think that the the numbers you're talking about now, google secures five hundred mega deal with guy roads. Power is one of the bullets. Ts, on the slight here. Well, that's the deal i've already signed up for.

I think by late decade, it's going to be five or ten gigawatts with chaos and it's going to be more with x energy and these guys that are all running, uh, hilo or three. So fuels that you know it's I don't think anybody has begun to discount what that's going to mean for a conversion and enrichment in demand. And what I don't see coming to the table is who's gona build out all of the conversion and enrichment that will be necessary, not in the next year or two. I agree with you, it's a few more years out than that, but between now in the end of the decade when we're going to need to fuel all of those new high tech reactors that demand much more enrich ment swoose, do you see uh, a pipeline coming online of a whole bunch er of new in richmond capacity being built? I don't see IT.

It's happening. It's just happening slowly, right? So we have erano in the united states building up their facilities a bit. We have orono in france building out their facilities a bit. Center is adding some interfusion.

Well, we have the advent of a global laser enrichment, hopefully getting the project up and running for for a enriching, deplete the tails by the end of the decade or maybe the early twenty thirties. So this is happening, is just happening slowly. Enrichment, ent in conversion or slow to build.

There are also a very unique markets that have experienced extremely painful, extremely difficult and extreme swings in Price and demand. To give you one example, converting in the thermo polis facility in the night states, they shut down two thousand and eighteen. They just reopen that facility last year.

And this facility went we had we had conversion trading on, I think, all the way down to four dollars a kg. U was the lowest Price. It's now we had a deal done, almost one hundred dollars A K G.

To end the week last week. Now they have seen government intervention. They have seen the market absolutely crashed.

Theyve seen the market store. We've seen enormous amount of of underfeeding coming from russia that underfeeding basically is the source of U F. Six, therefore making IT, reducing the demand for a conversion. There's been all sorts of of geopolitical influence elements to these markets that make them very difficult to Operate a within and also very difficult to invest in. And so there's been pressure and questions coming to commodation over the last three years, especially since russia invaded ukraine and russia being the largest provider, a conversion in the world convert.

When are you guys can expand? You're telling you telling us you can expand you're running seven thousand, uh seven thousand times a year and you're telling us you can expand the to thirteen to fifteen and road to easily while wire doing IT and and every single time and every single conference the combined rappers like, okay, how about you guys stop buying E, U. P.

From china and science and contracts with us. media? Think about IT like honey. Well, doesn't give a dam about this project. It's it's a rounding err for honeywell.

So but what we are hearing from industry chatter, we believe that cover dine will eventually expand. It's possible they might even the hunting world might even spend off cover and and become a publicly traded company. So these are all potentials that could that could happen.

We know that a chemical um with west house is looking at restarting the spring fields facility in the U K. And like I mentioned, just as global ease enrichment actually will be a source of us. Six not enrich uranium.

So all of these things are slowly happening. Orono is slowly expanding. Um so we think that the market elements will influence the expansion of these of these services in time. For the time being, these are bottled x, but they're only bottle x because the demand has gone through the roof in the past couple of years because of the geopolitical problems, right? So any utility, especially in the west, let's say in the e or the U.

S, that has been concerned about a potential ban of russian material or has been concerned about just dealing with russia going forward in the future because of these geopolitical elements of strife, has voluntarily created a bifurcated market and secured conversion enrietter in the west. Eric, if you take a look at slide number seven, the graphic showing the enormous Price rise for both conversion and enrich ment in the past two years. Now in any commodity investment, any commodity market, what influences the Price to go up?

What you either have, uh, a supply disruption or if you have a demand overshoot, right, the demand increases, the supply decreases. Supply of both conversion and enrich ment have increased in these last two years. Convert has come online, okay? The chinese are building out both conversion and enrichment.

Now this is largely or if not entirely to to fulfill their own domestic needs. They if thirty reactors on the construction right now, so they are building out of fuel cycle as well to service their own needs. But these two markets have expanded their capacity during the period of the enormous Price.

So what does that mean? This means that utilities have poured into these two markets with much, much greater demand that these two markets had seen over the past and you know, five to ten years. And why is that?

If you are utility, you concerned about getting your fuel, you're going to secure the elements that are closer to the end of the fuel cycle first, and that's conversion and intervention. The last step, of course, of course, is fuel fabrication, but that's a little bit of different market. So you get your conversion, you get your arrangement.

Some of these utilities have you relate elementaries that they can feed into those conversion deals, and some of them do not. So these big Price bikes, while they have caused the botanic, because conversion is basically static and two more capacity built out whenever capacity there is what we have. So if you need conversion right now and you need IT like six months from now, you're going to pay through the nose for chemical or converging or orono to be able to give you a little tiny piece of whatever they might have capacity available, which isn't much.

So what we expect to happen is not for these two markets to crash back down according to this slide, but for the uranium market to catch up to IT. Yes, we will probably see some backing and filling in the enrichment conversion markets as new capacity does come online in next two or three years, but the uranium is going to have to catch up. why? Because you can't buy a conversion and not have the uranium to feed into that service.

And i'll give you one more element if you go back to the slide number six here talking about the russian bin, and we haven't really discussed this yet, but russia has actually cut off the exploration of enrich, straining to the nineteen states. One important element of this is related to that previous charin slide seven, that russian enrich ment contracts allow for return feed, so you can buy a contract for enrichment from russia. They will send you the product of that service, which is enrich janean product U, P, and you can send the U.

F, six back to them. Well, to the extent that a contract that you have signed with russia as A U. S. Utility is going to have to be renewed and you have to source that enrich ment from yank orono, we provide the feedstock up front, and we believe that is one of the things that is leading to this squeak that happening.

I'm literally right now within the last week, uh, and the conversion market is there certainly are some utilities that are not going to get their next shipments of U. P. They're going to have to buy uranium and had a converted.

So that's going to put a squeeze on an already tight market. And it's just the geopolitical and strive that is happening between the west and h in russia, in particular, is causing major ripples through out of fuel cycle. IT is a huge theme for this year, and I don't know how it's going to go going forward. We have a lot of uncertainties around and the new trump admin as well as far as this is concerned.

just and I should apologize for jumping ahead and you let's go back to slide to cause everything that you've said tells me, okay, they are actually doing what they can to increase conversion and enrichment and capacity. We ought to be able to support maybe a two or three percent tiger in terms of expected E, U, P. demand.

But guess what, the electricity demand expectations are not two with three percent tigers, double digits. Um I still see a major crisis here in. The reason that is so concerning to me is if I think about a conversion and enrichment problem, IT makes me worry that a lot of investors are gonna be a little bit out over their skies speculating.

And oh, this just has to mean incredibly high uranium Prices will ultimately IT does, but you can't have higher demand for uranium until you've got the conversion and enrichment facilities to process IT and IT seems to me that's where the bottles neck is gonna really for the rest of the the decade because what you're I think saying is they're already grow as fast as they can. And what slide too says to me is there are not grow and anywhere close to fast enough. sure.

Yeah, with the light you know these slides and slide too are these graphics, I should say, and slide to are are showing just the enormous energy consumption, not necessarily the growth of nuclear. Get to that on on slide number five. But uh, this the the energy growth, the energy demand growth, I should say, and the A I trend is real.

I mean, that's that's really what I want to emphasize with these two graphics. This is not speculative at this point. This is absolutely happening. It's going to happen.

And the energy availability, electricity availability is going to be the limiting factor in that was something that, that zuckerberg just came out and stated within last couple of days. I mentioned the R P. That matter just put out today, electricity of capabilities is going to be the limit factor.

And that's why we've seen that the announced start through my island, why the palace's reactor in michigan is restarting. They're looking at restarting twin or old in iowa. They're actually looking at even picking up where they left off the construction of the VC summer plant, south CarOlina, which was a major financial calamity.

This is ap one thousands being built kind of up along the same time frames is as the vocal plant. Georgia, they halted that project and I didn't get picked back up. They're talking about potentially restarting the construction of that project.

So all of these the electricity demand is leading to much more interest in nuclear is especially in the market where we're going to see major data on a growth. So I share these these two graphics are primarily to just to just emphasize that this this trend is real. We think that the AI trend is going to be as big, if not bigger than the internet.

And we know how that shaped the world over the last twenty five years. So um this is a major, major theme and I am very pleased see that that nuclear growing along with IT as far as conversion and arrived ment capacity being built out, those are being built out currently. It's a botnet primarily right now because of the massive amount demand is coming to the market last two years, not because those markets have have been squeezed, the capacity dropped.

So do you go out twenty, twenty nine and twenty thirty and beyond, which is really kind of tomorrow in terms of how utilities will secure their future needs, capacity opens up and IT opens up pretty significantly. So um to the extent of utilities are uncovered in the short term, that is usually pretty rare and not just because of this moment in time with with the problems that are happening with russian supply, but usually utilities are covered for the next eighteen to thirty six months to speak, very generally. So if you go out to the end of decay, you start to seek capacity open up.

You're trying to secure enrich ment conversion uranium in the twenty authorities. It's it's absolutely available. So we think that there's capacity currently for the uncovered needs. But if we see growth that is preferred by, let's say, the cop twenty eight, cop twenty angles by the department of energies lift off the port, we're going to need much, much, much more of every single element of the fuel cycle. So some extent I I absolutely agree with you IT.

Seems to me what's happened so far is the tech boys get IT theyve figured out that nuclear is the only same way to power this. They've got the money in the influence in order to make that happen. But what I don't think they figured out yet is that they're going to have this this huge dependency on conversion and enrichment.

And I don't hear anything about google and meta making. You know can we join the chemical and cilley partnership and and make GLA bigger? Let's make the pedals a laser enrichment and facility triple t size Better wants a slice of IT. I'm not hearing anything like that yet, and I think that's what needs to happen next.

Yeah, I think that the the evident have to appear that is a major, major problem right now. It's just expensive for utilities, right? So you know the the tech companies are probably largely wanting, at least initially, to rely on on the the the capitalism to to figure these things out.

So we want this thing and we are willing to pay for somebody to make that happen. So the the fuel needs for nuclear are not really on the radar yet. And and really if we go back history, ally, we've never ever seen ever, uh, nuclear power plant not get the field that is needed at any Price.

So if you're looking at a multibillion dollar nuclear build out to power a data center, for example, spending uh hundred dollars on conversion, hundred and fifty dollars on uranium um seventy five eighty box for school plus fuel fabrication. Those are these rounding errors on the total cost of the project and the importance of that dance center and the profitability of A I for the tech company. So I don't think the costs of the fuel cycle are really even on on the radar what soever and I don't think they will be in lesson until they really believe that the fuel won't be available.

Now for talking about advanced nuclear, what we already knows that the D O, A is basically we told terror power that they're going to be able to provide the first fuel of from downbent ding warheads. But that's not going to be a long term solution. why? Well, a, uh, geopolitical tensions are on their prize.

B military, stockport in the us. Are at historical lows. In fact, we think the us. Is going to be buyers of uranium and four military and other and other purposes of strategic uranium stockpiles.

Nuclear navy at setter at all of these things are coming together to to show an enormous demand picture for uranium. But as far as the tech companies are concerned, they're used to writing a writing a check and having things just appear right. So that's probably where they're at here.

They recognize the problem with electricity availability. They recognize the solution as far as what is going to get in the way of that solution, we're gone to have to see how that plays out the coming years. As far as the nuclear fuel cycle, historically speaking, Price has LED to supply appearing. And just as in most markets, this usually happened. So we've yet to see how that will play out and whether or not this bottle neck will continue based on the expected growth of the sector.

You said that most of the contracting for enrichment in, in conversion is done on a forward basis. There's forward contracts. Are those typically assignable? Because IT seems to me we've got this vehicle already spot.

This is brought physical uranium trust to speculate on uranium. You can buy some physical uranium so that if the Price of uranium goes up in the future, you had a chance to make money on IT. I'd much rather speculate on the Price of conversion and enrichment. I want to buy the the sport contract for assignable contract for conversion in richmond in the late twenty twenty years because I think the Price of that is going up. Is that something that could be a turned into a fun that people .

could invest in? It's hard to say. And you know the uranium participation corporation before brought took IT over did hold both and u six.

U F six being the product of the conversion process. But um we'll see I mean, it's possible that commodation ends up as a public vehicle. Chemico is publicly traded and they have the part hope conversion facility.

Of course, I don't really think that anybody really cares much about that element to their business strAngely um and of course, they have forty nine percent ownership of west house, which owns the springfield facility that is likely to be up and running at some point in the future. But um I think that that's probably pretty unlikely, eric. Unfortunately, I mean.

that's what I want to speculate on. Let's move on. One of the things that has been a theme we've talked about and you've aten quite about in your newsletter, is that the geopolitical breakdown between the united states and russia has LED LED amir putin to basically say, you think you can ban me, i'm going to ban you.

So he's basically banned any export of enriched uranium products, trying to cut the west off from access to russian conversion and enrich ment facilities. You've written quite a bit about that being A A major factor before president trump was reelected. What is this going to mean? Moving on to page three, the trumpet. The administration with respect to the russia ban and in general, with respect to energy policy and nuclear energy policy.

sure. Well, I think i'd actually just jump jump to to slide six to start that answer, eric. Um just kind of give people some background of what happened. So h the united states of court passed the house bill ten forty two that was signed into law in may that became long August of this year and that bans the importation of russian um in rest uranium um effective immediately.

But their wavers being offered out to december thirty one to twenty twenty seven, basically to twenty twenty eight A U S utility can apply for a waver with the department of energy to receive material if they can prove that they literally cannot find IT elsewhere. Now as as was expected, the waivers, the first few shipments did get waivers. So that was a handful of utilities.

That was centuries as a broker for a handful of utilities. We've already seen a couple of shipments come through since August of russian material to the united states. However, IT has been a concern from the beginning that russia could actually cut off those exports, and that obviously made a lot of sense to us.

Why a where their adversary were essentially in a proxy war with russia, and we've already, you know, seized russian assets and sanctioned other russian materials, and now we've sanctioned the actual uranium importation. So IT would make sense on a tit for tat basis for put into the same b these legacy contracts that ten x which is the russian state oned enrich ment corporation has signed with U. S.

Utilities two, three, four, five years ago that is being delivered upon out are at way, way lower Prices than what they could sell that richet for this in the present marketplace. So they could they could play geopolitics and cut off those exports um that that would be perfectly understandable conder. We've already done that to them and they could highly profit from doing so by reneging these contracts and send in the material elsewhere.

Now russia's ban is also offering wavers, but those wavers have to be applied um to the russian entity via tenets not from the U. S. Utilities is not applying for these tenets have to apply for these.

And our understandings of the first shift that was set to leave the port of six Peters berlet ship sailed, and IT does not have the enrich uranium on the ship headed to the united states. So as of now, this material is not coming here. Now this is called a temporary band because it's supposedly will end unless they unless they extended on december thirty first of next year of twenty twenty five.

okay. So going back to trump and the trump adman, what we expect on slight number three, well, there are certainly plenty of of people that believe that trump is a friend of putin and that all of this will just go away. And I don't believe that's the case for multiple reasons.

One, during trump's first term, there was a petition called section two thirty two that was brought forth by ur energy in and energy fill in the united states. And they wanted twenty five percent of the rainie requirements for U. S.

Utilities to be Mandated to be purchased from U. S. miners. And trump basically said, yeah, i'm not going to do that because he's a free market.

Capital is essentially but he said, I will look into this issue. And the case was made in section to thirty two that the U. S. Is highly reliant on russia and and eastern as a central asian supply, which is absolutely true.

Twenty five percent roughly of the united states in the uranium, uranium needs come from russia and that has and that only because it's limited at the russian suspension agreement and not breached that level. So the nuclear fuels working group put together by trump basically came out with a report during twenty, twenty and a few. Remember, twenty, twenty.

There was way, way more on his player to deal with then this particular matter. But the working group basically said, yes, this is a problem. Yes, we should do something about IT the established beginning, uh, the first phase of the uranium, the strategic uranium reserve.

And so we think that he's unlikely to push for a reversal of this ban because the band highlights the uh the sovereign energy concern of being reliant on russia and along with the ban came at a number of other elements of funding to support the fuel cycle domestically. The other element is that the russian ban in the united states was legislated that did not come about via executive order for biden so truth can just say, yeah, give me, give me a pen. I'm going to make this go away.

You would have to introduce or someone who would have to introduce legislation to reverse this ban and you would have to be voted on um by the by partin senate house. And we think that that is highly, highly unlikely to happen considering that basically this was a unanimous vote to ban on this material. So we the other elements of this new administration, of course, is that we believe the trump is keenly aware of the energy situation.

We believe that he understands that the growth of A I and tech and data nors is going to put enormous strain on the grid. And it's also interesting for him to have elon mask in his ear, seemingly on a daily basis right now on elon, of course runs x and x has grown, which is an A I platform built into that, a built into x also of course running tesla test with their self driving software that is A I driven. Um there is going to be a full understanding of this, A I growth situation, the ah the arm's race with china, concerns with A I and what will be needed in order to remain competitive and quoting what win this race and all of that in our estimation is going to lead to support of growth of energy and support of nuclear in the united states.

Justin, let's talk a little bit more about Christopher, right, who has president elect trumps choice for secretary of energy? Seems to me like this is a guy who really gets IT. And I don't want to put generically, I do want to put gennifer ground home down because she's not need um complete just night and day difference.

I think in terms of having a clue in terms of whose in charge of department of energy, what is that? But he's also mean he's on close, close board. So he clearly gets advanced nuclear is also um um you know a fracking guy seems like president trumps energy strategy is gonna be very much drill, baby drill. Let's really get oil production back up. What do you think Christopher rights focus is gonna is IT onna be more in the oil and gas space or more in the nuclear space are a little about or one oh.

I think it's probably pretty obvious that his focus will most likely be in the oil and gas space considering that he's the ah he's the CEO of liberty energy, which is a fracking company. But he also like he said, he's on the board of oka, which is an advanced nuclear developer and um he's on record of being supportive of nuclear, especially advanced nuclear.

So um the energy humanist moniker that was something that that was preferred by by doing berg. I think that's a very accurate description, of course, for right. I think these very, very sharp. And like you said, I also agree that he gets IT either way, this should be very bullish, generally speaking um for for nuclear going forward, even though he is the sea of a of a francy company being on the board of okay, that's not something that's accidental. I thinking understands that we need growth a across the board for energy in the united states just .

and let's move on to page for we are charting supply and demand for uranium and the outlook.

sure. I wanted to give kind of an update. Ah there's nothing that's really all that different on this picture other than the demand growth has has shot up to the upside since the projected demand growth since last year. I talked and this this slide in the slide on on slide over five are both from a recent report from r, bc.

And r, bc, importantly is getting this data from the sources of U, X, C, uh, which is the largest nuclear fuel analyst, the world nuclear association, which does incredible work, h, across the board, and nuclear, the iaea, which is the international omc energy agency. And then, of course, R, B, his own input. So they're getting this data.

They're graffam out this data from the people that live, eat, breathe this world. So this is not, they're not just pulling IT out, right? This is, this is solid data from the most respected entities in the industry. And they're showing basically that uh that the mine supply, the long term deficit starting kind of the ID tony thirties looks to be really, really severe.

And this moment in time where the market code baLance is highly speculative based on how smoothly and efficiently and quickly the expansion of supply will happen in the later part of this decade, there is still very, very large deficit looming right now between now and let's say, twenty, twenty nine, twenty thirty. Because what happens to twenty, twenty thirty, while the market expects that kazatomprom in casa stan on one hundred percent basis will be able to expand production substantially, which maybe they will, but it's going much, much more difficult than anybody expected. The market expects that next gens ero project will start production, which starts out at twenty eight and twenty and nine million pounds a year for the first few years.

Denis son's phenix global, Thomas dosa, various other expansions of Brownfield and maybe a couple other smaller Green tail projects. If everything goes right, we have a pointing time of this market balancing, but nothing ever goes right in the mining world. I'm sure you know that just as well as anybody else.

Uh, and we've already seen multiple Brown field restart projects that are not hitting their production goals. So whether that you are energy, whether that is, uh, boss energy, whether that is pads restart of langer hinrichs, all of these projects are coming up short on their production targets even from a mind that already was pre existing. So when we're talking about these major, major Greenfield projects, highly speculative, whether or not these are getting the production at all, let alone on time, on budget.

So we still have a very, very large up into the right demand. Bar supply is a question mark, and you can see that, that that lighter colored shading at the top of these bars of secondary supply, which is strong a lot since you go back into the early twenty teens. And that was mega tones, the megawatts plus enormous amounts of underfeeding.

And as we've discussed multiple times in this chat to the eric, enrichment is relatively constrained. So when you have constrained capacity enrichment, you don't have underfeeding. So that secondary supplier has dropped a lot.

but. The page five, Justin?

sure. So I just wanted to highlight again that this actually is a growth industry. This is something that and maybe that's clear to everybody at this point, but this was something that that nobody really understood going back a few years, that the sector was actually growing, that nuclear technology isn't dead.

It's not only being phased out now. Some old reactors, of course, are incrementally being faced out, but they're largely being replaced with much, much larger new reactors. So this graphic on on slide number five highlights exactly that.

Again, the source data coming from the wa and the I ae just showing how much nuclear is growing and specifically where is growing. So you can see china, of course, is the biggest growth story in all of nuclear. With thirty reactors under construction right now.

They are shooting to have one hundred and fifty gigg watts of nuclear by twenty five, twenty thirty five. They're on pace to hit that. And of course, you know, backing backing up this foundation graphic showing the enormous growth of nuclear is the chinese practices of the last few years in terms of procuring urania uranium.

China does not have a lot of domestic uranium resources in the ground. They're building out a lot of conversion and enrich ment for their own sources. They have to procure uranium elsewhere.

So they are signing deals. They're taking over projects and are signing long term contracts. Two more very large long term contracts were secured with kasana problem and two different chinese nuclear utilities.

So they are doing everything they can to scoop up the pounds from the prolific producers of the world, which is cash and also shares the border of china. So it's convenient in that way, they are much more aggressive on the procurement side than anyone else in the world. And why western utilities have not reacted to this practice yet is a is somewhat of a head scatter.

And they will. And we are going to look back five years from now and see just how intelligent the chinese were by acting early and involved in a bold manner in terms of the volumes that they're securing. So the chinese are building out like crazy, and they're also procuring like crazy if anybody's concerned that the chinese men tories are going be sold in the market, the chinese will be in that buyers, at least out to twenty, thirty and probably beyond.

And all of those chinese statistics that you just quoted, worthy conventional nuclear built out that china has planned. On top of that, they're also doing a whole bunch of advanced development, including therion field. And as you say, they're short on uranium deposits in their own country, but they're not short on thorium and they're building out the the thorium supply chain that we ought to be building in the west.

So I couldn't agree with you more than that final question just just before we close as I assimilate all of the things you're telling me. First of all, as you said, nothing ever goes right in the mining business. All IT would take is just for the does the project in the jair, which is definitely at risk, right? We don't know what's going to happen politically in naja, and I certainly hope he gets worked out.

I've got a big chunk of global atomic stock, but if that project by itself, nothing else where to go wrong, that totally unbaLanced supply and demand, short and IT, seems like it's a no brain like you just have to go all in on uranium. But hang on, anytime, anything seems like a no brainer. I always want to stop and think and say, okay, where could I be getting the investment? This is wrong.

What could I be missing? And IT seems to me like the biggest candidate for what we could be missing here about uranium demand really increasing dramatically is if we get that conversion and enrichment d bottlenose gathers demand for enriched uranium product, but there's not enough conversion in an enrich ment capacity to consume as much uranium as everybody thought I was going to get consumed. Is that the right thing to worry about? And if that's not the right one, what else could go wrong to to undermine and all in on uranium kind of investment places?

Well, like I mentioned earlier, if you go out a few years beyond where the current the current bottom that exists for both conversion and enrich ment, which has been driven by a massive increase in demand, not by capacity decreasing, right? So that that super, super important understand is that these Price bikes did not happen because a conversion facility caught fire or an enrichment facility went down. For some other reason.

This is happening because demand is is pouring into these markets largely because of the geopolitical situation. But that's happening either way. And that has a follow on demand for uranium.

It's not theoretical. Um IT has to happen because of physics. You'd need something to feed into that conversion process. And the only thing that you can fit into that process is your three weight. So that demand is yet to really hit, and that is what we're expecting for next year. In the years after that, as far as going out to the twenty thirties, um we we're just going to have to see how the market adjust to the demand that comes into those markets.

So if as a nuclear utility, if you have A A facility that set to shut down in twenty thirty two and then you get a life extension and then you go out to buy your arrangement, you go out to buy your conversion for those periods of time, the coverage that you need and it's not there, then we continued Price increases we have yet to ever see, like I mentioned ever in the history of this industry, there was insufficient um uranium conversion or enrich ment to the point where a facility didn't get its field. So if the scenario that you're discussing hyp atheistic, where there just isn't enough conversion and enrich ment to to equate to uranium demand, well, that's the same situation that there isn't enough conversion and enrich ment to actually fuel the reactors. And and if that's the assumption you're making that all of these graphics you can throw out of the window, we believe that the growth of nuclear is going to be important enough for sovereign individual companies, that it's going to incentivize the industry to grow, and basically via a simple capitalist economics, right? And the demand for something grows, the Price goes up and the supply increases.

And the only thing with this industry is just happen slowly. So I don't believe that the conversion enrich ment bottom like is going to slow down the uranium growth story of the uranium market or the Price rise for anim, at least not in the time period that we consider for this investment thesis. How this plays out in the twenty thirties is just too far in the future to really predict, but the growth projections are there as far as what else could go wrong.

We always have the possibility of a nuclear accident that's always there in the background, whether not that leads to a demand destruction event like functions a with fifty three reactors turned off over the course twelve months, that is really what LED to a decade long bear market, not the accident and sentiment that affected things pretty significantly for quite a few years. But um you know I think that if you had A A smaller, less significant accident is going going to cause china to stop building nuclear, and probably not. So how is that can affect the demand picture? I'm not sure would IT be a positive thing? No, of course not.

But that possibilities is always there. Um is there another potential demand shock out there that we're not picturing certainly possible, a reduction in demand, a reduction the forecasts of demand of china arsts, if they decided to slow down their build out, if the us, for whatever reason, decided to not grant life extensions to a bunch of reactors that have applications that for life extensions, these sorts of things can change the actual supply demand dynamic and should change the uh the the forecasting of the investment thesis. Of course, as far as the supply side goes, we have a very hard time seeing an unforeseen large source of supply here, at least at these Prices.

If we get up one hundred and fifty two hundred dollars upon uranium and IT stays there for years, we're going to see an incentive for new sources of supplies or whether that's from foss fates in moraca, whether that's from sea water extraction, these things are out there, but they're just not in play right now. They're not going to be in play for many, many years, like I said, and lesson until we have much higher Prices sustained for a very, very long time. So for now, hard to tell on the supply side, if anything comes in out of left field, it's not looking highly likely. The demand side, we can always have a shock that's unexpected .

just and I can't thank you enough for a terrific interview. But before we close, I want to talk a little bit more about uranium insider, the newsletter that you publish. As I mentioned at the beginning of this call, you perfectly nailed the bottom call on this deep correction.

You've got something in excess of four hundred percent return since inception on your news letter in just a few years. So terrific performance. Congratulations on that.

Tell us more about IT, who's IT for is IT only for professional investors is for the retail market as well. How much is IT cost? How where do you sign up? Give us the whole run down.

Sure, eric. Um yeah like I said, we've been running this since always the twenty eighteen. We have a small team behind us. We are hundred percent focused on the nuclear energy sector and the uranium mining sector. So this is this is all that we do um who this is for this is for investors who already have money on the line in the sector, are interested in putting putting money on the line in in terms of investing in the growth of nuclear and in the rise of of the uranium Price via uranium mining stocks. So as you can tell from the various directions that this conversation is taken, and just a very short period of time today, is an extremely complicated sector.

What we always try to do and what I think that we do very well, is to still down the incredible amount of information that's that's swirling around all the time for the sector into what exactly you need to know as an investor. And a lot of that focuses on the physical market, trying to understand who is buying, who is selling, various sources that we have built, h connections that we ve built throughout the industry over the many years that we've been doing this um give us up to date and accurate information. We are able to distil that into what you need to understand as an investor soup.

We try to take a very complicated sector, make IT simple so that you can make investment decisions. And of course, we have our focus list of of security recommendations that has LED to that four hundred and eleven percent returns since inception in August twenty twenty. And so. Um you can find out more information that uranium insider dog common of course, I have a decent present on x as well at uranium insights.

Just and I can't thank you enough for a great interview, will have you back in a few months for another update listeners just to let you know what's in store later this week, i'll be free recording our Christmas and new year's specials. We prerecorded those in order to give our production team those holiday weeks off. We're going to take a really deep dive on advanced nuclear technology.

The first episode to air on Christmas will be all about the advanced reactor designs that are going to be important for energy transition. So if you're still scratching your head wondering what's the difference between a fast sodium reactor and A A molten salt reactor, a high temperature gas cooled reactor and what what does all this stuff mean? We're going to cover that in the Christmas episode. But then in the new year's episode, we're going to take a deep dive on nuclear fuels and nuclear fuel cycles, including the newer fuels like tsao and hay lu and thora um fuels that will supply the reactors of tomorrow. So that's all coming up in our holiday specials over Christmas and new yeah Patrick resonant and I will be back as macrovoice continues right here at macrovoice outcome.

Now back to your hosts, eric townsend and Patrick season. A eric was great .

to have an update from Justin again. Now let's get to that chart tech. The sense you're are going to find the download link for the post game chartered in your research round up email if you don't have a research rounder IT means you have naji a registered at macrovoice dot com just go to our home page macrovoice dot com and click on the red button over Justin's pictures saying, looking for the downloads now, eric, let's cover crude all starting with the E I tory E.

I A printed a drawdown of five point one million barons of crude, il. Cushing, oklahoma, building fifty thousand bells, but there were big builds on the finish products with gasoline and building two point four million barrels to still its building three point four million balls for a net patrolling um build of zero point seven million bells despite the drawdown on crude il us production holding steady at thirteen point five million bells.

The stories is pretty much the same as the last couple of weeks. There's plenty of room for more and energy Prices on micro o fundamentals, but there's also plenty of room for a dramatics by caire if the geopolitical situation escalate further. I'm flat here, and I really don't follow the crude oil market is closely as I used to. So I don't really have a strong view.

Well, eric, when we look on page two at the crude all futures, you clearly can see that the Price action remains in the favor of the bears. Now there is a major support line, the lows of establish. There's a fair value zone in this sixty eight to seventy one dollar area that continues to have a three months consolidation in their but every time crucial rallies is making a lower high, which means someone keeps leaning into selling on every pop.

And now while the support line is holding, this is winding up in one big wedge formation, the bigger question is which way is the next break? At this moment, its remains below let's key moving averages, lower highs, stribble Price action. There is entirely possible that technically we break that support line and head down to low sixties.

Now I think that, that may be an overshoot and then IT snaps right back and may even even be a short term buying opportunity. But it's really hard technically to make a bull case. IT would take a substantial amount of Price action up in mid seventies to start technically repair ring this chart to actually establish some sort of A A trend change.

But right now, there's no sign of that. Eric, let's talk about the equity markets. What are your thoughts?

Well, wednesday marked yet another all time high on the S. N. P. But let's not forget, boobs are generally followed by bus. And I have no idea how long this particular boom can last before IT busts, but I think IT will eventually.

Yeah, eric, absolutely that the markets continue to make all time highs. The the pattern of accumulation is so evident, higher highs, higher lows. Even on a day in, day out basis, we don't go and break previous day laws.

Money keeps flowing into the market where i've measured moves up to the sixty one to sixty two hundred. So there is definitely room for even one hundred more s and pee points in this particular impulse higher. But we do have the jobs numbers coming up.

And if there was some kind of A A news event that could potentially at least cause some sort of corrective pattern to ensue, IT would be some sort of event risk and as like a surprise number. Now i'm not saying that that's what i'm anticipating ing, but watching these kind of key events is going to be ah the important turn points. Ah IT could be an inflation number IT could be the FM c at some point something is gonna spur a mean reversion of this.

But right now, the path of least resistance is completely in the favor of the bulls as they remain completely in control of this Price action. With a little bit further on the upside, at some stage, we will get a pretty deep market correction. But with the way things are shaping up this year, IT may very well be a january story and could end up being a very quiet Christmas period if this trend continues. Now, eric, let's talk about the dollar.

The dixi is finally begun to consolidate, but there's no clear sign of a tree reversal, at least not yet. So i'm waiting to see what happens.

Well, eric, we did have that print up towards one or late, and then we've seen some sort of correct pattern getting underway. And we talked about in last week talking charts to this room for the us. Dollar to continue to mean revert a little bit from just such an extremely strong impulse since putting in its lows in late september.

The consolidation could go down to even the one of five level on the dixi as the euro can work its way back to even one or seven on the upside. But there's a primary bull train that's been established. And at this juncture, there's not a lot of reason to believe that this bull trend is over.

We were just due for a correction, and we're seeing Price action that resembles correction. I think that this present still a buying opportunity. In my mind, the euro is doing some significant technical damage in such a huge waiting in the dollar index.

If the euro had separate or even lower back to two thousand twenty two wer lows at ninety five cents, that the dollar index can easily find itself at one twelve or higher in that kind of an environment, will that all materialized odds of IT materializing in this calendar year with you know three, four weeks left in the year, it's more likely the dollars gonna finish the year in this consolidation. But i'll be certainly an interesting story going into january, february, whether or not the dollar index has one strong bullish impulse left in IT. So moving on the eric, let's touch on gold.

There's a short term symmetrical triangle on the chart that really should be at the end of the road here and should resolve upper down IT hasn't yet. We closed wednesday pretty much right at the the point on the triangle there. So we should see some directional soon. And hopefully that will be the talent where the next leg taxes from here.

Well, eric, while I agree that there is a triangle formation developing, I still will not rule load, that is ig eggs, its way for one more quick wash out down towards twenty five hundred, irrespective whether there is one more corrective cycle down or not. I remain very bullish cold and view this this consolidation as an important buying area.

So if we did get a dip of a one hundred dollars or more on the downside of gold, I I think that would be a compelling buying opportunity, would probably be very short lived if one was to have an opportunity there. At some point, we're gonna get a break out, but if you don't get IT by the fmc meeting, then odds are that this is going to push out into a january story. Moving on, I wanted to touch on that uranium chart.

I know Justin yourself had a extensive conversation on this, but this is the chart of the sport uranium physical trust um on page six. And what we continue to see is that this is a creating a basing formation for what was basically one big two thousand and twenty four correction. Now the big question, of course, like you were discussing, what justice when do spot Prices start to react? Because that's the moment when something like this spot physical trust are going to start seeing the bullish break at.

It's going to need spot Prices to rise for to for IT to be trading higher. The big question here is that does that happen now or at these levels? At this stage, we do need a legitimate break at above twenty seven dollars on this chart with u three O A breaking legitimately back up into the eighties in order to get this going.

Obviously, with only a few weeks left in the year, IT may still just grind IT out along this fifty day moving average a little bit longer, but IT is setting up for what will be probably a pretty compelling bullish break out in the new year. Finally, I wanted to just touch on some bond charts. Now Normally we look at yields are specifically looking at bonds and whether or not they're bullishly breaking out.

So page seven, I have the two year teenage te futures. Clearly, a there was A A very doubt stance in the market going into september, into the first rate cut since then. We've seen the two year now have a pretty distinct retracement and correction.

Now the big question, of course, is, has this now gone little too far? Is the fed policy in a shift going into the fmc? I'll be very interesting to see whether or not a short term law has been put in here in november and whether a new bull train starts to establish itself on anticipation of the fed path and on page aid, we have the long bond to treasury bond futures.

And on the long end, we had obviously inflation fears and other things cause a material, a mean reversion all the way back to the summer lows on the long bomb. Since then, from a very oversold condition, we've had a reflex of rally. The sentiment was just so negative toward bonds.

And so now that we've snap back got back above the fifty day moving average, IT is very hard to make a case yet that this is a new bold trend just because when something is so oversold, the most common thing is for IT to bounced and react. And we got that. But what will be very interesting at this stage is whether or not that november low ends up being um the the bottom of this bomb range. And if we start seeing anything that brings back recession risks or fears as economic slowing numbers might eventually materialized, maybe there is room for treasury bonds to actually have a rally back up to the top end of these ranges. It's not a big macro o call, rather simply looking at whether or not bonds have once again simply overshot on the outside and will mean river back to a more real alister range considering where most asset Prices are currently trading folks.

if you enjoy Patrick stark dex, you can get them every single day of the week with a free trial of big picture trading. The details are on the last pages of the slide deck or just go a big picture trading that come, Patrick, tell what they can expect to find and this week's research round up.

But in this week's research rounded up you going to find the transcript for today's interview as well as the charts that were provided by just in during the interview and the chart, which is discuss here in the post game. This also includes a number of links to articles that we found really interesting. So you're onna find this and so much more in this week's research rounded up that does IT for this week's episode.

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